Speaker 1: This is Remember When with Harvey Degan on Perth six PR.
Speaker 2: And time for a regular chat that we have on
Speaker 2: Remember When with doctor Martin Drum, Professor of Politics and
Speaker 2: International Relations at Notre Dame University. Welcome to the show
Speaker 2: once again. Always a pleasure to have you on the show.
Speaker 1: Martin.
Speaker 3: Great to be joining you, Harvey, and.
Speaker 2: There's plenty to talk about. We're going to try to
Speaker 2: delve into this very convoluted situation involving Iran and the
Speaker 2: American raids on the nuclear facilities in Iran and go
Speaker 2: back through a bit of the history of the relations
Speaker 2: I suppose you'd say, over many, many years between Iran
Speaker 2: and the USA.
Speaker 1: But before we do, I'd just like you to perhaps.
Speaker 2: Have a quick look at the budget, the result of
Speaker 2: the state budget. I guess we're fairly used to in Australia.
Speaker 2: We might be a bit cynical when we say this,
Speaker 2: but particularly with four year terms, the first budget after
Speaker 2: a government is elected or re elected is well can
Speaker 2: be a pretty tough one. There's no pork barreling, and
Speaker 2: there won't be for another three years. But do you
Speaker 2: think it was a tough budget? Was it a fair budget?
Speaker 2: What's your overall impression of Redasafiotti's budget the new.
Speaker 3: Treasurer, well, I guess the one tough thing and maybe
Speaker 3: it was inevitable, but it's the removal of the electricity credits.
Speaker 3: That's the extra money that has been tipped into your
Speaker 3: energy bill by the government to try and help you
Speaker 3: with that. So our households are being weaned off that now,
Speaker 3: and it just means that there's some extra pain, I think,
Speaker 3: because the reality is that electricity devices have been going
Speaker 3: up simply substantially in a rising again, and there's some
Speaker 3: look in terms of our other pain. The water bills
Speaker 3: are rising. I think, emergency service levy's going up. There's
Speaker 3: other charges that are going up as well here and there,
Speaker 3: like car red Joe. But I've looked probably slightly better
Speaker 3: for somehouseholds is a flat rate for public transport, which
Speaker 3: is probably good on the broad sense. Harvey, you're talking
Speaker 3: about a two and a half billion dollar surplus, which
Speaker 3: is pretty good. Figures in that sense. State debt those
Speaker 3: on the rise. It's reality and a big focus on infrastructure.
Speaker 3: So a lot of it's around this sort of may
Speaker 3: made in wa sort of slogan that they're using and
Speaker 3: trying to stimulate the local economy there with a whole
Speaker 3: range of different infrastructure.
Speaker 2: One of the real big tests for people in WI,
Speaker 2: of course, are those that can't afford to buy house.
Speaker 2: They have to rent, and rents are just absolutely through
Speaker 2: the roof. Did you see anything in the budget that
Speaker 2: might assist people who are in that situation.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So they've got this sort of rent to buy
Speaker 3: program that they've rolled out, and there was an election commitment,
Speaker 3: so they're looking to fulfill that part and that's going
Speaker 3: to help some first home buyers certainly. There's also a
Speaker 3: lot of work trying to try and unlock supply, including
Speaker 3: supporting apprentices etc. And skilled shortages which have been a
Speaker 3: significant obstacle on the supply side. So that won't but
Speaker 3: the problem is that won't improve the housing supply straight away.
Speaker 3: It's more of a pipeline issue, but it's probably going
Speaker 3: to pay dividends down the track.
Speaker 2: We are one of the if not the fastest growing
Speaker 2: state population wise, of all the states of Australia. About
Speaker 2: three hundred thousand people have moved to Wa in the
Speaker 2: past five years, and of course that does put a
Speaker 2: lot of pressure, doesn't it on infrastructure?
Speaker 1: And supply and all those sort of issues.
Speaker 2: Do you think the government's done enough in this budget
Speaker 2: to decater for what will continue to be an exponential
Speaker 2: increase in our population.
Speaker 3: Well, certainly, I think in some ways they're playing catch
Speaker 3: up because there has been a challenge to date in
Speaker 3: how many houses have been built. But I mean I
Speaker 3: think there is a much stronger focus on housing this
Speaker 3: time around than there has been probably in the past.
Speaker 3: So you know, you're getting a range of different measures
Speaker 3: that have been been touted to try and improve our
Speaker 3: housings are blight and I think it's around the supply
Speaker 3: side that the real works required, so hopefully they'll start
Speaker 3: to make a difference. I still think probably more community
Speaker 3: social housing have be needed to try and help that
Speaker 3: waiting list. I think it's about twenty two thousand people,
Speaker 3: so there's still a lot of work to be done.
Speaker 3: In other area.
Speaker 2: Have you yeah, a lot of opposition or some opposition,
Speaker 2: I supposely from the opposition to the Burswood supercar track.
Speaker 3: What's your view on that, Well, it's not something I'll
Speaker 3: followed really closely. I think state governments have a responsibility
Speaker 3: to provide a range of different services and I think
Speaker 3: i'd be focusing it on value for money for that project.
Speaker 3: Is it going to be delivered on time and on budget?
Speaker 3: And is that entire area, because it's in quite a
Speaker 3: what's a bit of a prime real estate might describe it,
Speaker 3: is that is it going to sufficiently lift the entire
Speaker 3: area and make it a great place to come to?
Speaker 2: Certainly not in our state, nowhere near our state. But
Speaker 2: I have to pass a comment that Tasmania is going
Speaker 2: through the mill at the moment, of course, with a
Speaker 2: snap election being called following the Premier Rockcliffe having had
Speaker 2: a successful no no confidence motion passed against him and
Speaker 2: he's rather than resigned, called us election. And part of
Speaker 2: the issue is the proposed stadium at a place called
Speaker 2: Macquarie Point. And you know, I can't help but perhaps
Speaker 2: go back to you maybe Optus and the Belltower on
Speaker 2: that with you know, the opposition to those initially and
Speaker 2: now they're all part of the landscape. And I suspect
Speaker 2: that'll be the same in Tassy as well. I know
Speaker 2: Tassy's not your bailiwick, but I know you'd also be
Speaker 2: keeping a pretty good class eye on it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm quite intrigued to see how this all
Speaker 3: pans out. This is a really unusual election. It's borne
Speaker 3: out via no confidence motion against the premier that passed
Speaker 3: on the floor of their Legslith Assembly. So they forced
Speaker 3: back to the polls, you know, much earlier than they
Speaker 3: should have been. They were in the inn the polls
Speaker 3: last year. I had an election in twenty four. I
Speaker 3: imagine there'd be a number of voters that are deeply
Speaker 3: unhappy with how maybe the government and opposition have contrived
Speaker 3: to get this result, because it seems that both of
Speaker 3: them relatively happy to go back to the polls. I
Speaker 3: just wonder if they might be punished by a round
Speaker 3: of people voting for other parties.
Speaker 2: I think that's what's going to happen over there for
Speaker 2: absolute sure and certain. All right, mate, well what we
Speaker 2: might do if you don't mind a clear a commitment
Speaker 2: And then I do want to have a look in
Speaker 2: detail at the Iran situation.
Speaker 1: On Perth six PR. This is remember when with Harvey
Speaker 1: d Gan.
Speaker 2: And doctor Martin drum has joined us Dtor Drumm from
Speaker 2: Notre Dame University. Well, I shouldn't imagine there's a country
Speaker 2: in the world that's not looking with some concern, some
Speaker 2: great concern over the situation in the in the Middle East,
Speaker 2: and of course the latest is that Donald Trump has
Speaker 2: again struck targets in Iran and well virtually has said
Speaker 2: that he's neutralized their nuclear capability.
Speaker 3: Can we believe that, well, it's unclear, certainly unclear at
Speaker 3: this stage. I mean, it's only happened this morning about
Speaker 3: the complete fall out of this, so certainly the Defense
Speaker 3: Secretary has claimed that the US has destroyed those facilities.
Speaker 3: By a contrast, Iranian State TV is telling us that
Speaker 3: there's that minimal damage. Of course, we know the fog
Speaker 3: of war. Both sides will try and state their position
Speaker 3: and convince us. I think we'll probably have to wait
Speaker 3: a little bit longer to see just how much difference
Speaker 3: that's made.
Speaker 2: You mentioned the word war quite rightly, so I think
Speaker 2: there has been no declaration of war as such. What's
Speaker 2: the situation there? If we don't want this to happen,
Speaker 2: we desperately don't want this to happen. But if the
Speaker 2: situation escalates and it becomes war, my understanding, and I
Speaker 2: don't understand how politics works in the United States, to
Speaker 2: be perfectly honest, is that a president cannot declare war
Speaker 2: that has to be done with the approval of Congress.
Speaker 1: Is that correct?
Speaker 3: Well, the planet presidents can and do order strikes and
Speaker 3: individual individual activities, and they'll always claim that there's a
Speaker 3: reason for those. And certainly this was the Trump approach,
Speaker 3: that he's preventing the imminent, the imminent role of Iran
Speaker 3: and acquiring a nuclear weapon. But certainly Congress has to
Speaker 3: authorize the funding of war and the ongoing cost that's
Speaker 3: likely to entail. So at some stage you'll need to
Speaker 3: go to Congress if indeed this becomes a full blown conflict,
Speaker 3: and of course that's certainly a risk following those strikes.
Speaker 2: Today, another development is that the Iranian Foreign minister says
Speaker 2: that he has a meeting with Vladimir person of Russia,
Speaker 2: of course in the morning. So why do you think
Speaker 2: they are conversing and how does that impact on the
Speaker 2: rest of us.
Speaker 3: Well, if this is part of the potential escalation that
Speaker 3: this event has, Iran and Russia are close allies. In fact,
Speaker 3: probably Iran is a size of Belarus, probably the closest
Speaker 3: that Russia has and has a system in drawing production
Speaker 3: and another means with the war in Ukraine, so Russia's
Speaker 3: condemned this attack unsurprisingly, and part of the reason for
Speaker 3: the Iranian Foreign minister is to try and secure Russian support.
Speaker 3: But I mean, I do think Russia also is very
Speaker 3: reluctant to get into a direct conflict with the US.
Speaker 2: Well, they would be wise to think about that, that's
Speaker 2: for sure. Iran history will show us that Iran won't
Speaker 2: just sit back and cop this, that they will probably
Speaker 2: strike back. How do you think they will affect that
Speaker 2: because they're just not going to Well, maybe they will
Speaker 2: lie down, and maybe they will surrender, as Trump has
Speaker 2: said that it's not negotiable.
Speaker 1: But I've got my doubts.
Speaker 3: What about you, Well, I mean they are back into
Speaker 3: a corner now, and the real danger for these strikes
Speaker 3: is that what it provokes. And there's certainly our real
Speaker 3: possibility that Aram's going to straight back. I mean, they've
Speaker 3: both from the eye tooler come any down. They've threatened
Speaker 3: retaliation if they if they were attacked, And the problem
Speaker 3: with that, of course, is that the credibility of your
Speaker 3: ragme in the eyes of its own citizens is linked
Speaker 3: to the threats that you made and whether you're going
Speaker 3: to follow through with it. So if you're attacked, and
Speaker 3: don't respond. I think that that weakens for the whole ragime.
Speaker 3: Of course, the alternative, though it might be worse. If
Speaker 3: they respond to the US, then the US may just
Speaker 3: unleash full military power and you know, a fascinate the
Speaker 3: political leaders and destroy all forms of infrastructure they rely on,
Speaker 3: and that would make their position really really challenging. So
Speaker 3: they are in a really difficult bind. But it's not
Speaker 3: inconceivable at all that they could lash it up. There's
Speaker 3: a lot of US assets in the region. There's troops
Speaker 3: all through Iraq, for instance, which are potentially vulnerable, and
Speaker 3: as of course US ships in the Gulf just south
Speaker 3: of Iran as well, so there's a lot of potential
Speaker 3: assets that could be the line fire.
Speaker 2: Of course, the America's interest in Iran that didn't happen
Speaker 2: yesterday or the day before. This goes back, I believe,
Speaker 2: to the fifties, and it goes back as far as
Speaker 2: when Dwight D. Eisenhower was the President of the United
Speaker 2: States and they had an agreement I believe with Iran.
Speaker 2: It was called Atoms for Peace, in which developing countries
Speaker 2: received nuclear education and technology from the United States. So
Speaker 2: what happened was Apparently the US later provided Iran with
Speaker 2: a nuclear reactor and weapons grade enriched uranium fuel. So
Speaker 2: that's kind of where the ball started rolling, wasn't it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So, I mean things have not always been the
Speaker 3: same between around in the US. Certainly during the rule
Speaker 3: of the Shah, which ended in nineteen seventy nine, the
Speaker 3: US and Iran weren't very good terms. And in fact,
Speaker 3: the US was the major armed supplier to Iran at
Speaker 3: that time, and they cooperated and collaborated in the whole
Speaker 3: range of ways. And that whole situation turned one hundred
Speaker 3: and eighty degrees with the Islamic Revolution in nineteen seventy
Speaker 3: nine and the new raging coming in, and they've had
Speaker 3: no diplomatic relations since.
Speaker 2: Yes, Well, that probably came out of left field. They
Speaker 2: may not have anticipated that was going to happen. That's
Speaker 2: what happens when you haven't Islamic state born of what
Speaker 2: was essentially a kingdom. We need to take another break, Martin,
Speaker 2: if you don't mind, then, I do want to ask
Speaker 2: you about the various roles that subsequent presidents, including Nixon
Speaker 2: and co. Have had to play in the Iran situation.
Speaker 2: When with Harvey Degan on Perth six PR I'm chatting
Speaker 2: to Martin Drumm from a Notre Dame university. We mentioned,
Speaker 2: first of all White Eisenhower, President Eisenhower's involvement. Then the
Speaker 2: Richard Nixon went to Iran in the days when it
Speaker 2: was the Shah of Iran who was running the show,
Speaker 2: and he traveled, as I believed, to ask the Shaft
Speaker 2: for help protecting US security interest in the Middle East,
Speaker 2: and in return he promised that Iran could buy any
Speaker 2: non nuclear weapons it wanted. And then of course came
Speaker 2: the Arab Israeli War of nineteen seventy three. So that
Speaker 2: was a really volatile time in the Middle Eastern affairs,
Speaker 2: as if it's not always a pretty volatile time.
Speaker 3: Per certainly Harvey, and all the way through to nine
Speaker 3: seventy nine, generally the US had a pretty good relationship
Speaker 3: with Iran, and a number of presidents I think had
Speaker 3: had fairly good dealings with the Shower of Iran until
Speaker 3: nine and seventy nine, And of course that all changes
Speaker 3: and it's people will be aware of the Lame Revolution,
Speaker 3: but even in the very early days of the revolution,
Speaker 3: they took US citizens or US embassy staff hostage and
Speaker 3: Jimmy Carter had to try and release them, and it
Speaker 3: had a lot of difficulty in doing so, which undermined
Speaker 3: his credibility and some say led to the loss of
Speaker 3: the nine eighty US presidential election.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Ronald Reagan, he what was his involvement in
Speaker 2: his relationship with Iran.
Speaker 3: Well, he kind of tacitly sided with Iraq during the
Speaker 3: Iraq Iran War because they were stung by their experiences
Speaker 3: of the nineteen seventy nine revolution. And it's hard to
Speaker 3: believe that they supported and helped armed so they are
Speaker 3: the saying of all people against against Iran. So that's
Speaker 3: how much they disliked Iran. But there was a lot
Speaker 3: of dodgy stuff going on because there were some officials
Speaker 3: in the Reagan administration that secretly sold weapons to Iran.
Speaker 3: It's known as the Iran Contra scandal in the mid eighties.
Speaker 3: So that was happening at the same time there was
Speaker 3: a general sanctions against the Irani Ragim.
Speaker 2: Yes, and I think Oliver North was the guy, Lieutenant
Speaker 2: Colonel Oliver North. He was up to his easy in
Speaker 2: that one. But I understand that that the Iran contra
Speaker 2: affair was a bid to secure the release of several Americans,
Speaker 2: think seven I think held hostage by j Hesbalara in Lebanon.
Speaker 3: That's right, it was the Contra rebels in Karagua. I
Speaker 3: think the links to Lebanon, yes, and Iran had influenced
Speaker 3: in Lebanon, so you know, there was a lot of
Speaker 3: murky connections at that stage. So yeah, there was, and
Speaker 3: I think even I think there was an accidental shooting
Speaker 3: down at one of the Iranian airlines in late eighties
Speaker 3: as well, so it was a very turbulent time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was nineteen eighty eight I think, and was
Speaker 2: then the US Navy who managed to shoot down an
Speaker 2: Iranian passenger yet was nearly three hundred people on board
Speaker 2: are all killed. Of course, then of course came the
Speaker 2: Persian Gulf for more problems.
Speaker 3: That's right. So there was another flashpoint again for their
Speaker 3: relations as well. And then if you're going through to
Speaker 3: Clinton's you know he reached out briefly when Katami was
Speaker 3: president of Iran and Tomi was a little bit more
Speaker 3: friendly to the West, but the Ila Coman he didn't
Speaker 3: really want to see in the way of thoring of relationships.
Speaker 3: He put the kybosh on that and then George Bush
Speaker 3: famously styled around Iraq and North Korea as constituting in
Speaker 3: access of evil in two thousand and two, Harvey So,
Speaker 3: and that was some indication of just how bad the
Speaker 3: relationship had deteriorated to.
Speaker 2: Wasn't Bush trying to do a sort of a backdoor
Speaker 2: deal to help well, it didn't happen, but to to
Speaker 2: help engineer what he hoped would be the defeat of
Speaker 2: the Taliban.
Speaker 3: Well, he did. He did try. This is later on.
Speaker 3: He did try to enlist around support in that respect.
Speaker 3: I mean, they were bordering Afghanistan and some of the
Speaker 3: Azaris that were were not well treated by the Taliban
Speaker 3: had found refuge in Iran, and I think they were
Speaker 3: hopeful that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Speaker 3: But there's I don't think that there was a lot
Speaker 3: of co op cooperation. Not a lot came of that
Speaker 3: entreaty either.
Speaker 2: And in his first term as as president, Donald Trump
Speaker 2: was up to his ears in the Iranian situation.
Speaker 1: What were some of the key decisions that he made
Speaker 1: during that first term.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean the most significant one was during the
Speaker 3: the Obarmer administration, they managed to have a joint brand
Speaker 3: they had I think it's called the Joint Comprehensive Plan
Speaker 3: of Action, and they had a deal to limit Iranian
Speaker 3: nuclear and the Uranian in richment, and effectively Iran was
Speaker 3: granted relief from from part of the international and economic sanctions.
Speaker 3: And they had inspectors coming in regularly to certify this.
Speaker 3: And that was probably a bit again, a bit of
Speaker 3: a thawing in that relationship temporarily, and but things quickly
Speaker 3: deteriorated again. They had in twenty twenty. You're probably familiar
Speaker 3: with Salamani, who is the leader of the Kods force.
Speaker 3: He was one of the leading sort of proponents of
Speaker 3: Hamas and Hesbalaa and some of those other offshoots of Iran,
Speaker 3: and he got assassinated by the US. So again that
Speaker 3: probably put the kybosh on at the start of Trump's administrations,
Speaker 3: their attempts to any attempts they might have had to
Speaker 3: fall things out.
Speaker 2: Well, it is a very very tricky situation. That is
Speaker 2: understating the case big time. But we'll just wait and
Speaker 2: see what happens. We hope for a peaceful outcome. We
Speaker 2: will see, I suppose. But look, Martin, thanks for analyzing
Speaker 2: all that for us. Tonight has put it really in perspective,
Speaker 2: we just want to be just as distant as we
Speaker 2: can be from this conflict, which we hope will be
Speaker 2: resolved to the satisfaction of all parts. He's made Thanks
Speaker 2: for your time, really appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Pleasure Harvey.
Speaker 1: That's doctor Martin drum And.
Speaker 2: Martin, of course is from the Notre Dame University and
Speaker 2: he's a professor of politics and international relations.