1 00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:04,640 S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to Inside Politics from 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,080 S1: The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Israel and the 3 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:11,320 S1: United States are at war with Iran in a rapidly 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,120 S1: escalating conflict that Australia seems to be trying to keep 5 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,800 S1: out of as much as possible. But today, we're going 6 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,560 S1: to talk about how viable it is to be neutral 7 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:22,160 S1: these days, and whether Australia is doing its duty as 8 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,799 S1: a middle power. And we're also going to discuss the 9 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:28,120 S1: Liberal Party review. Opposition leader Angus Taylor and others have 10 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,600 S1: tried to keep it secret, only to have it leaked 11 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:33,479 S1: by none other than the Prime Minister himself this week, 12 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,159 S1: which kind of ended up reinforcing the main point of 13 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,040 S1: the review about the party's competency. Joining me to chat. 14 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,800 S1: We have our foreign affairs correspondent, Matthew Knott, and our 15 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,959 S1: chief political correspondent, Paul Cicala, as usual, and both are 16 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,440 S1: joining me from Canberra. Welcome, gentlemen. 17 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:50,720 S2: Good morning. Hello. 18 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,880 S1: Matthew. Not last Saturday, Israel and the United States launched 19 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,240 S1: joint missile attacks on Iran in an operation that the 20 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:03,010 S1: Trump administration called Operation Epic fury. And since then, over 21 00:01:03,010 --> 00:01:04,970 S1: the course of the week, the war has very much escalated, 22 00:01:04,970 --> 00:01:07,890 S1: with Iran striking US targets in the Middle East. There's 23 00:01:07,890 --> 00:01:10,770 S1: a very uncertain timeline for the war, as well as 24 00:01:10,970 --> 00:01:15,610 S1: very uncertain strategic objectives, I would say. Oil supplies are disrupted. 25 00:01:15,650 --> 00:01:19,490 S1: Aircraft travel has been disrupted. What what has been the 26 00:01:19,490 --> 00:01:22,810 S1: response of the Australian government at an official level about 27 00:01:22,810 --> 00:01:23,450 S1: this war? 28 00:01:24,569 --> 00:01:29,530 S3: Well, the Australian government was out incredibly quickly supporting the 29 00:01:29,569 --> 00:01:34,930 S3: US and Israel's action. And intriguingly, given who's been visiting 30 00:01:35,090 --> 00:01:38,410 S3: Sydney and Canberra this week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, 31 00:01:38,730 --> 00:01:43,050 S3: a Canada and Australia have used basically identical language, particularly 32 00:01:43,050 --> 00:01:47,690 S3: in those early hours since the attack that they supported 33 00:01:47,850 --> 00:01:49,610 S3: the US and Israel strikes. 34 00:01:50,330 --> 00:01:54,530 S4: Australia stands with the brave people of Iran in their 35 00:01:54,530 --> 00:01:58,090 S4: struggle against what is an oppressive regime. 36 00:01:58,530 --> 00:02:03,060 S3: They supported the efforts to ensure that Iran cannot get 37 00:02:03,060 --> 00:02:07,940 S3: a nuclear weapon, and that Iran cannot continue supporting a 38 00:02:07,940 --> 00:02:11,580 S3: terror throughout the region in the Middle East. I think 39 00:02:11,580 --> 00:02:15,260 S3: one thing to note with the Prime Minister here is 40 00:02:15,260 --> 00:02:19,140 S3: that he feels this quite strongly on Iran. 41 00:02:19,340 --> 00:02:23,100 S4: We have not been immune from the impacts of the 42 00:02:23,100 --> 00:02:26,540 S4: regime's actions right here in Australia. 43 00:02:26,580 --> 00:02:28,820 S3: Because of what we've seen in Australia. 44 00:02:28,860 --> 00:02:34,299 S4: At least two attacks orchestrated by the IRGC on Australian 45 00:02:34,300 --> 00:02:41,139 S4: soil in 2024, including the firebombing of the Adar synagogue 46 00:02:41,380 --> 00:02:46,420 S4: in Melbourne, aimed at creating fear amongst Jewish Australians but 47 00:02:46,419 --> 00:02:50,540 S4: also aimed at dividing our nation. 48 00:02:51,620 --> 00:02:54,020 S3: This has had a big effect on the Prime Minister, 49 00:02:54,020 --> 00:02:57,660 S3: and I think that helps explain not just our traditional 50 00:02:58,060 --> 00:03:02,140 S3: support for the US or being afraid of annoying Donald Trump. 51 00:03:02,380 --> 00:03:05,980 S3: But that anger he has towards the regime in Iran 52 00:03:05,980 --> 00:03:10,820 S3: explains why he was out very strongly supporting this action. 53 00:03:10,820 --> 00:03:14,100 S3: Even if we obviously have concerns about where it's going 54 00:03:14,100 --> 00:03:14,700 S3: to lead. 55 00:03:14,740 --> 00:03:18,859 S1: Yeah. And that state backed terror by Iran led to 56 00:03:18,900 --> 00:03:22,100 S1: basically severing of diplomatic relations. And obviously we kicked out 57 00:03:22,100 --> 00:03:26,060 S1: the the Iranian ambassador and they pled innocence at all times. 58 00:03:26,220 --> 00:03:29,019 S1: Just to be clear, is there any Australian involvement in 59 00:03:29,020 --> 00:03:31,780 S1: the war? The Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, has said that 60 00:03:31,780 --> 00:03:34,940 S1: we had no heads up. We had no advance notice 61 00:03:34,940 --> 00:03:37,620 S1: of the strikes. Did was Australia involved at all? 62 00:03:38,580 --> 00:03:42,100 S3: The government's assisting? Absolutely not. It's saying these two things 63 00:03:42,100 --> 00:03:44,660 S3: really as strongly as each other. The first that we 64 00:03:44,660 --> 00:03:48,700 S3: support the initial action here. Secondly, we had absolutely nothing 65 00:03:48,700 --> 00:03:52,140 S3: to do with it. Defence Minister Richard Marles even went 66 00:03:52,140 --> 00:03:56,740 S3: so far during the week to say that the Us-australia 67 00:03:56,740 --> 00:04:00,140 S3: facilities at Pine Gap, for example, were not used to 68 00:04:00,180 --> 00:04:03,230 S3: provide intelligence on this. And that's a pretty extraordinary thing, 69 00:04:03,230 --> 00:04:07,070 S3: because ministers usually would not talk about what goes on 70 00:04:07,070 --> 00:04:11,870 S3: at Pine Gap. It's incredibly secretive. It's basically a US 71 00:04:11,910 --> 00:04:15,070 S3: facility more than our own. I don't think even the 72 00:04:15,070 --> 00:04:19,710 S3: defence minister would know everything that's going on there, but 73 00:04:19,710 --> 00:04:22,630 S3: that just showed how strongly the government wanted to make 74 00:04:22,630 --> 00:04:27,630 S3: clear we're not providing active support for these strikes. You know, 75 00:04:27,670 --> 00:04:31,830 S3: Australia does have troops stationed in the Middle East and 76 00:04:31,830 --> 00:04:36,550 S3: at bases. Uh, but we are not playing an active role. 77 00:04:36,550 --> 00:04:38,870 S1: It seems like it's very much an Israel and the 78 00:04:38,870 --> 00:04:42,430 S1: United States joint operation with no one else involved, at 79 00:04:42,470 --> 00:04:46,670 S1: least initially. And most legal experts and other commentators, international 80 00:04:46,670 --> 00:04:48,950 S1: law experts are saying that the war is illegal under 81 00:04:48,950 --> 00:04:52,070 S1: the precepts of international law. Paul, what is the Albanese 82 00:04:52,110 --> 00:04:55,430 S1: government had to say about the legality or otherwise of 83 00:04:55,470 --> 00:04:55,950 S1: the war? 84 00:04:57,230 --> 00:05:00,229 S2: Well, firstly, on their justification for the support for the war, 85 00:05:00,270 --> 00:05:03,800 S2: they are careful in their language to justify their support 86 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:07,960 S2: on the basis that the strikes could degrade Iran's nuclear capacity. 87 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,839 S2: They don't say explicitly that they supported the war to 88 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,279 S2: topple the regime. There are members of the cabinet who 89 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:17,880 S2: were members of the Labor Party in 2000. In the 90 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:21,360 S2: early 2000, when the Labor Party under Simon Crean famously 91 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,080 S2: opposed the Iraq War, which is a famous example of 92 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,960 S2: the challenges or near impossibility of clean regime change in 93 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,160 S2: the Middle East. So they've been careful to say that 94 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,880 S2: they support the war because Australia, as a country that 95 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:37,040 S2: sees Iran as a destabilising, destructive force around the globe, 96 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:41,000 S2: does not believe Iran should build up towards a nuclear weapon. 97 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,640 S2: On the point of legality. Penny Wong and the Prime 98 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:47,200 S2: Minister have said repeatedly that it's on the US and 99 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:51,000 S2: Israel effectively to explain how international law was adhered to here. 100 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:55,040 S2: There's an obvious discomfort on the part of Mark Carney 101 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,520 S2: and Anthony Albanese and many European leaders in terms of 102 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,600 S2: how they viewed the US's consultation on these strikes. There 103 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,930 S2: was no heads up given to Canada or Australia or 104 00:06:04,970 --> 00:06:07,730 S2: European allies. There was no attempt, as you saw with 105 00:06:07,730 --> 00:06:10,730 S2: George Bush back in the early 2000, to go to 106 00:06:10,730 --> 00:06:12,890 S2: a UN body to build up the case for war. 107 00:06:13,250 --> 00:06:17,169 S2: There were public statements for months about the prospect of action, 108 00:06:17,170 --> 00:06:21,010 S2: given Iran's reluctance to give in to the full extent 109 00:06:21,010 --> 00:06:25,089 S2: of Trump's demands on their nuclear program. But in terms 110 00:06:25,089 --> 00:06:28,130 S2: of bringing allies into the tent to justify this, that 111 00:06:28,130 --> 00:06:30,690 S2: didn't exist. And so you have this line from the 112 00:06:30,690 --> 00:06:33,650 S2: government to say, yes, we support the broader intent of 113 00:06:33,650 --> 00:06:36,770 S2: this war. We may be uncomfortable with the tactics, but 114 00:06:36,770 --> 00:06:39,369 S2: certainly on the legality, we leave that to the US 115 00:06:39,370 --> 00:06:41,969 S2: and Israel to, to, to, to answer for. 116 00:06:42,010 --> 00:06:44,089 S1: Yeah, it's sort of a very concerted attempt to have 117 00:06:44,089 --> 00:06:47,130 S1: no opinion on something which is which is quite glaring. 118 00:06:47,330 --> 00:06:49,650 S1: There has been some dissent from within the Labour ranks, 119 00:06:49,650 --> 00:06:52,810 S1: hasn't there? Noddy from former Foreign minister Bob Carr, who's not, 120 00:06:52,810 --> 00:06:55,570 S1: not no. One, and some of the Labour caucus members. 121 00:06:56,529 --> 00:06:59,690 S3: Yes. I think a lot of this is happening underneath 122 00:06:59,730 --> 00:07:03,099 S3: the the surface really. And I spoke to Bob Carr 123 00:07:03,140 --> 00:07:05,300 S3: this week to just try and bring some of that 124 00:07:05,300 --> 00:07:07,300 S3: to light, because I think he does speak for a 125 00:07:07,300 --> 00:07:12,020 S3: substantial portion of the Labor Party, the labor movement, that 126 00:07:12,020 --> 00:07:17,180 S3: has a lot of disquiet about the fact this is happening. 127 00:07:17,220 --> 00:07:20,900 S3: A but b that Australia came out so strongly in 128 00:07:20,900 --> 00:07:23,580 S3: support of it. I think what Paul was speaking about 129 00:07:23,580 --> 00:07:26,900 S3: there with a Penny Wong in particular, having to stand 130 00:07:26,900 --> 00:07:30,380 S3: up every day and be asked, you know, are these 131 00:07:30,380 --> 00:07:33,340 S3: strikes legal or illegal under international law? And she has 132 00:07:33,340 --> 00:07:37,300 S3: to act. Really. That's for someone else to deal with. 133 00:07:37,500 --> 00:07:41,020 S5: That is these that that question about the legal basis 134 00:07:41,020 --> 00:07:44,620 S5: of the action is a matter for the countries participating 135 00:07:44,620 --> 00:07:47,500 S5: in the action, which is the US and Israel. What 136 00:07:47,500 --> 00:07:50,820 S5: we have said is that there's two is a few points. 137 00:07:50,820 --> 00:07:52,860 S5: One is we know over many years that. 138 00:07:53,180 --> 00:07:56,540 S3: It's a very awkward because you won't find any respectable 139 00:07:56,780 --> 00:08:01,660 S3: international law expert basically anywhere. Who would say these strikes 140 00:08:01,660 --> 00:08:06,260 S3: are legal. Uh, Australia's always talking about the illegal invasion 141 00:08:06,300 --> 00:08:08,500 S3: of Ukraine. You know, we make judgments all the time 142 00:08:08,500 --> 00:08:12,740 S3: about what's illegal or not under international law. But she's 143 00:08:12,740 --> 00:08:15,700 S3: just in this position where she can't say one way 144 00:08:15,700 --> 00:08:20,780 S3: or the other. Yeah. Which makes her look pretty ineffectual on. 145 00:08:20,820 --> 00:08:22,340 S1: Makes it look a bit silly. It makes them all 146 00:08:22,340 --> 00:08:24,340 S1: look a bit silly because we all we all know 147 00:08:24,340 --> 00:08:25,020 S1: what the truth is. 148 00:08:25,060 --> 00:08:26,860 S2: Yeah, well, could I just make one more point on 149 00:08:26,860 --> 00:08:29,460 S2: international law? I think it's worth pointing out that even 150 00:08:29,460 --> 00:08:32,260 S2: though the government is clearly not trying to not weigh 151 00:08:32,260 --> 00:08:35,500 S2: into that question, they are seeking to build up the case, 152 00:08:36,059 --> 00:08:39,940 S2: the moral case for why this strike was justified without 153 00:08:39,940 --> 00:08:43,980 S2: fully making making specific claims that they support the way 154 00:08:43,980 --> 00:08:46,500 S2: the US went about it. They've made the point repeatedly 155 00:08:46,500 --> 00:08:48,820 S2: that this is a regime that's killed tens of thousands 156 00:08:48,820 --> 00:08:52,059 S2: of people in recent months and has no legal standing 157 00:08:52,460 --> 00:08:54,940 S2: as a as a legitimate government. They've talked about the 158 00:08:54,940 --> 00:08:57,579 S2: terror attacks on Australian soil in an attempt to build 159 00:08:57,580 --> 00:09:01,300 S2: up Australian public support for it. And you had Raff Ciccone, 160 00:09:01,340 --> 00:09:05,110 S2: the kind of hawkish labor senator on Wednesday in Parliament. 161 00:09:05,110 --> 00:09:07,590 S2: Stand up and say this is a moment of moral clarity. 162 00:09:08,070 --> 00:09:11,310 S6: And this moment is for moral clarity. We stand against 163 00:09:11,309 --> 00:09:14,670 S6: the brutal regime. We stand against nuclear proliferation, and we 164 00:09:14,670 --> 00:09:16,590 S6: stand with the Iranian people. 165 00:09:16,910 --> 00:09:19,710 S2: The Greens and some journalists in the ABC need to 166 00:09:19,710 --> 00:09:23,670 S2: understand that the Iranian diaspora. This is his point. The 167 00:09:23,670 --> 00:09:28,190 S2: Iranian diaspora in Australia supports these strikes. So without without 168 00:09:28,190 --> 00:09:30,230 S2: going close to making the point that this does adhere 169 00:09:30,230 --> 00:09:33,350 S2: to international law, they are in a way trying to 170 00:09:33,350 --> 00:09:35,310 S2: say that there is a higher justice here. 171 00:09:35,630 --> 00:09:37,630 S1: As you say, there's a moral case in a legal case. 172 00:09:37,630 --> 00:09:41,870 S1: And I suppose they're quite two, two quite separate things. Interestingly, Matt, 173 00:09:41,910 --> 00:09:44,670 S1: the eruption of this conflict has coincided with the visit 174 00:09:44,670 --> 00:09:48,230 S1: of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, which Paul mentioned before. 175 00:09:48,470 --> 00:09:50,710 S1: He's a very honoured guest in Australia. He spoke to 176 00:09:50,750 --> 00:09:53,910 S1: Parliament on Thursday. On Wednesday in Sydney, he gave a 177 00:09:53,910 --> 00:09:56,670 S1: talk to the Lowy Institute. And, you know, just to 178 00:09:56,670 --> 00:09:59,349 S1: give listeners a bit of context, he gave a barnstorming 179 00:09:59,350 --> 00:10:02,270 S1: speech a few months ago at the Davos economic summit 180 00:10:02,270 --> 00:10:05,880 S1: where he said basically he he said the quiet part 181 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:07,920 S1: out loud. And he said, you know, there has been 182 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,200 S1: a rupture in the in the world order. He called 183 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,720 S1: upon middle powers to work together to counter the hard 184 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,079 S1: power of hegemony. He said the rules based order is fading, 185 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,319 S1: and we're moving to more of a. The strong can 186 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,320 S1: do what they do, and the weak must suffer what 187 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,240 S1: they must, which is a Thucydides quote he really sort 188 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,360 S1: of called it. And a lot of people saw this 189 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,120 S1: speech as quite striking and as the first sort of 190 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,400 S1: middle power or, you know, Trump ally or American ally 191 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,719 S1: to really call out what is happening with the expression 192 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:40,240 S1: of US power. What he had to say this week 193 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,880 S1: in Sydney and Canberra, has he been reiterating those themes? 194 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,679 S3: He definitely has. But I think what we're seeing on 195 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:50,760 S3: this trip, and it's also worth noting the Australia trip 196 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:54,400 S3: is in between a visit to India and a visit 197 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,840 S3: to Japan. So you can see these countries that he's 198 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:02,480 S3: visiting in the Indo-Pacific, you know, three very important democracies, 199 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:05,610 S3: but he's trying to spread Canada's message, you know, far 200 00:11:05,650 --> 00:11:09,050 S3: away from North America. I think he's trying to put 201 00:11:09,050 --> 00:11:12,370 S3: some meat onto the bones of this idea of what 202 00:11:12,370 --> 00:11:15,050 S3: he was talking about and what he got headlines for. 203 00:11:15,650 --> 00:11:19,490 S7: And the question today for middle powers like us, is 204 00:11:19,490 --> 00:11:23,850 S7: whether we establish the conventions and help write the new 205 00:11:23,850 --> 00:11:27,730 S7: rules that will determine our security and prosperity, or let 206 00:11:28,250 --> 00:11:30,930 S7: the hegemons dictate outcomes. 207 00:11:31,690 --> 00:11:35,290 S3: Which was essentially saying that the old rules based order 208 00:11:35,290 --> 00:11:37,570 S3: is dead and we shouldn't mourn it for too long. 209 00:11:37,570 --> 00:11:40,370 S3: We're living in a new world. You could describe it 210 00:11:40,370 --> 00:11:43,530 S3: in a way as quite analytical, quite academic. He was 211 00:11:43,530 --> 00:11:48,610 S3: diagnosing a problem. What we're seeing on this trip is, well, 212 00:11:48,610 --> 00:11:50,850 S3: what's the solution? You know, it's easy to say that 213 00:11:50,850 --> 00:11:54,010 S3: we're not living in this world, this pretty pleasant world 214 00:11:54,010 --> 00:11:56,650 S3: we were living in before. So how do you actually 215 00:11:56,650 --> 00:12:01,250 S3: go about that beyond just talking about middle powers doing 216 00:12:01,250 --> 00:12:04,460 S3: more together? So what we heard several times in his 217 00:12:04,460 --> 00:12:08,180 S3: speech was this idea of variable geometry. 218 00:12:08,820 --> 00:12:14,020 S7: Canada is choosing to create a dense web of connections 219 00:12:14,020 --> 00:12:18,100 S7: to build our resilience. We've adopted a new framework for 220 00:12:18,100 --> 00:12:23,660 S7: engaging the world variable geometry, creating different coalitions for different 221 00:12:23,660 --> 00:12:28,179 S7: issues based on common values and interests for those issues. 222 00:12:28,900 --> 00:12:33,060 S3: Which I think explains what Mark Carney is trying to 223 00:12:33,059 --> 00:12:35,140 S3: do here, it's pretty catchy. 224 00:12:35,900 --> 00:12:37,780 S1: I was about to say it's a very unsexy headline, 225 00:12:37,780 --> 00:12:39,699 S1: but maybe we have different tastes in that area. 226 00:12:39,740 --> 00:12:42,740 S3: It's pretty wonky and that's that's the thing. Mark Carney 227 00:12:42,740 --> 00:12:47,660 S3: is a former central banker in the UK and Canada. 228 00:12:47,700 --> 00:12:52,380 S3: You know, they're not always known as being the most exciting, uh, people. 229 00:12:52,380 --> 00:12:55,500 S3: No offense to central bankers, but he comes from a 230 00:12:55,540 --> 00:12:58,900 S3: wonky world and this is his approach. So what he's 231 00:12:58,900 --> 00:13:02,179 S3: getting at there with this idea of variable geometry is, uh, 232 00:13:02,179 --> 00:13:05,940 S3: of course, we have, a multilateral system with the UN 233 00:13:05,940 --> 00:13:09,340 S3: and other big organizations. We have our traditional alliances with 234 00:13:09,340 --> 00:13:15,780 S3: countries like the US. But what middle powers like Australia, Canada, Japan, 235 00:13:15,820 --> 00:13:18,140 S3: South Korea, you can keep going. They need to be 236 00:13:18,140 --> 00:13:22,140 S3: doing a lot more together without the superpowers of China 237 00:13:22,140 --> 00:13:25,620 S3: and the US, for example, doing a lot more together 238 00:13:25,620 --> 00:13:29,500 S3: in particular groupings that make sense for particular initiatives. So 239 00:13:29,500 --> 00:13:32,740 S3: you can have three countries working on critical minerals for 240 00:13:32,740 --> 00:13:35,339 S3: countries working on defense cooperation. 241 00:13:35,380 --> 00:13:35,900 S2: Social media. 242 00:13:36,620 --> 00:13:40,620 S3: Social media ban, climate change that we need. All these 243 00:13:40,620 --> 00:13:45,500 S3: countries looking a lot less to Washington in particular is 244 00:13:45,500 --> 00:13:47,420 S3: the subtext. You know, you can think about this in 245 00:13:47,420 --> 00:13:50,900 S3: terms of the amount of visits that Australian leaders and 246 00:13:50,900 --> 00:13:54,460 S3: Canadian leaders have made to Washington over the years, versus 247 00:13:54,460 --> 00:13:57,260 S3: how rare it is to have a Canadian leader here. 248 00:13:57,260 --> 00:13:59,740 S3: That's just symbolic of. We tend to take it for granted. 249 00:13:59,780 --> 00:14:03,100 S3: You know, we get along. We have like minded, uh, values. 250 00:14:03,590 --> 00:14:07,950 S3: He's really saying, we need to put some structure around this, 251 00:14:07,950 --> 00:14:11,310 S3: and we need to be looking at a very practical 252 00:14:11,309 --> 00:14:13,870 S3: level of what we can do together. 253 00:14:13,910 --> 00:14:16,550 S1: He sort of talked about it in terms of a financier. Again, 254 00:14:16,550 --> 00:14:19,230 S1: he talked about hedging against risk and basically said that's 255 00:14:19,230 --> 00:14:21,950 S1: what it will happen when you have, you know, these 256 00:14:21,950 --> 00:14:25,910 S1: major powers, you know, including the US, who are basically 257 00:14:25,910 --> 00:14:29,030 S1: all fighting for status with each other and using that 258 00:14:29,030 --> 00:14:34,430 S1: power to to exploit lesser powers like Canada and Australia. Paul, 259 00:14:34,430 --> 00:14:37,150 S1: I wonder, I mean, you know, in contrast to Prime 260 00:14:37,150 --> 00:14:43,590 S1: Minister Carney, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been very cautious, 261 00:14:43,870 --> 00:14:47,030 S1: very polite. Some would say he would probably say he's 262 00:14:47,030 --> 00:14:49,830 S1: been very pragmatic in his dealings with the Trump administration. 263 00:14:49,830 --> 00:14:52,870 S1: He's done deals where he could, particularly on critical minerals. 264 00:14:52,870 --> 00:14:55,390 S1: We've got, you know, a fairly relatively good deal on 265 00:14:55,390 --> 00:14:58,350 S1: tariffs compared to other countries in the world. So he 266 00:14:58,350 --> 00:15:01,070 S1: would say, you know, his pragmatic approach is paying off. 267 00:15:01,230 --> 00:15:03,880 S1: He certainly hasn't done a mark Carney and made a 268 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:06,840 S1: barnstorming speech about, you know, how middle power should rise up. 269 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,240 S1: Where does Australia sort of sit in terms of its 270 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:11,400 S1: middle power status, and are we pulling our weight? 271 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,160 S2: Well, I think we've got to acknowledge that there are 272 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,000 S2: different circumstances in Australia and Canada. I mean, the tyranny 273 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,480 S2: of distance benefits us here in some ways. Carney came 274 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,160 S2: into power at an election around the same time as 275 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,960 S2: our election. I think it was in April last year. 276 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,480 S2: The Canadian one and the months leading up to the 277 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:32,120 S2: Canadian election were characterized by this huge rupture between Canada 278 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:34,880 S2: and the US, where Trump started talking about Canada as 279 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:38,400 S2: the 51st or 52nd state, whichever the number is. He 280 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,040 S2: was on track to lose that election. Mark Carney, the 281 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,960 S2: conservative's about to win. And Carney kind of, um, took 282 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,920 S2: hold of this populist, nationalist instinct to, uh, have a 283 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,120 S2: fight with the US for the first time in really 284 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:55,640 S2: modern history. And that was hugely successful. Australia's been largely 285 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:57,840 S2: left alone by the Trump administration, and there have been 286 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:01,240 S2: some small bouts. But the strategy here has been to 287 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:05,050 S2: not poke the bear to remind the US administration of 288 00:16:05,490 --> 00:16:10,370 S2: the huge security benefit of having Australia in its toe 289 00:16:10,370 --> 00:16:13,890 S2: in the Asia Pacific, particularly in relation to the contest 290 00:16:13,890 --> 00:16:16,770 S2: in the Indo Pacific and with China. And people in 291 00:16:16,770 --> 00:16:19,490 S2: the Albanese government argue that they have been making similar 292 00:16:19,490 --> 00:16:23,250 S2: speeches to the one Carney delivered at Davos for months 293 00:16:23,250 --> 00:16:27,410 S2: and years. I think that's a little bit facile because, yes, 294 00:16:27,410 --> 00:16:30,450 S2: they have been talking about the multi-polar world. They have 295 00:16:30,450 --> 00:16:33,410 S2: been talking about re-engaging with Asia, and that's been demonstrated 296 00:16:33,410 --> 00:16:36,930 S2: in its actions. But there's not been one standout speech 297 00:16:36,930 --> 00:16:39,970 S2: from the Prime minister, which really captures the attention in 298 00:16:39,970 --> 00:16:42,570 S2: the same way Carney has not. 299 00:16:43,170 --> 00:16:45,930 S1: You speak to foreign policy wonks within the government. You 300 00:16:45,930 --> 00:16:49,330 S1: speak to national security experts and advisers within the government 301 00:16:49,330 --> 00:16:51,690 S1: all the time. What is your sense of the strategy 302 00:16:51,690 --> 00:16:54,610 S1: that the Albanese government is bringing to its dealings with 303 00:16:54,610 --> 00:16:58,810 S1: the Trump administration, particularly on sort of global affairs matters, 304 00:16:58,810 --> 00:17:00,690 S1: as opposed to trade and economic stuff? 305 00:17:02,130 --> 00:17:06,540 S3: I think there's more doing and less telling than, say, 306 00:17:06,540 --> 00:17:09,460 S3: what Canada and Mark Carney is doing. Like it's noticeable 307 00:17:09,460 --> 00:17:13,980 S3: that after that speech, uh, Albanese invited him to give 308 00:17:14,100 --> 00:17:16,820 S3: an address to Parliament, which is very rare. There's only 309 00:17:16,820 --> 00:17:20,460 S3: been five in the last decade. So that shows he's 310 00:17:20,500 --> 00:17:24,180 S3: aboard the Mark Carney train. He's putting on quite a 311 00:17:24,380 --> 00:17:27,500 S3: show for him. This week they're pursuing a lot of 312 00:17:27,500 --> 00:17:31,220 S3: initiatives together. But Albanese will not use all the grand 313 00:17:31,220 --> 00:17:34,859 S3: rhetorical language that Carney is going to use. So I 314 00:17:34,900 --> 00:17:37,820 S3: think Albanese wants to absolutely have it both ways. He 315 00:17:37,820 --> 00:17:41,060 S3: wants to pursue all these options where he can with 316 00:17:41,100 --> 00:17:44,219 S3: middle powers. He's trying to stay very close to the 317 00:17:44,420 --> 00:17:47,540 S3: Trump administration to get everything he can out of them. 318 00:17:47,780 --> 00:17:51,220 S3: Something like Aukus would be exactly what Mark Carney would 319 00:17:51,260 --> 00:17:53,620 S3: be saying. You don't want to get involved in, because 320 00:17:53,619 --> 00:17:54,739 S3: it does put us in a. 321 00:17:54,740 --> 00:17:57,700 S1: The Canadians have indeed been very, very skeptical and very 322 00:17:57,700 --> 00:17:58,740 S1: cautious about Aukus. 323 00:17:58,780 --> 00:18:01,420 S3: Yeah, yes, because it is something that puts us in 324 00:18:01,420 --> 00:18:05,190 S3: a subordinate position to the US. We're waiting years down 325 00:18:05,190 --> 00:18:07,909 S3: the track to see whether they will actually give us 326 00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:11,389 S3: these nuclear powered submarines that we're going to be reliant 327 00:18:11,390 --> 00:18:15,550 S3: on by then. So there are clear contradictions here. And 328 00:18:15,950 --> 00:18:19,390 S3: what Albanese would say is that he's trying to balance 329 00:18:19,390 --> 00:18:22,950 S3: them all against each other. There's no point in annoying 330 00:18:22,990 --> 00:18:27,149 S3: our biggest security partner. Quite amazingly, he's still just left 331 00:18:27,150 --> 00:18:29,790 S3: his offer to join the Board of Peace. He's just 332 00:18:29,790 --> 00:18:32,230 S3: left him on read. Really and not given an answer, 333 00:18:32,230 --> 00:18:34,910 S3: even though the whole thing is already holding meetings and 334 00:18:34,910 --> 00:18:37,550 S3: it's all the train's left the station, but we're just saying, oh, 335 00:18:37,590 --> 00:18:41,550 S3: we're giving it a think. So that shows exactly how 336 00:18:41,550 --> 00:18:44,430 S3: he views it. He'll avoid conflict for as long as 337 00:18:44,990 --> 00:18:48,310 S3: humanly possible with the Trump administration. 338 00:18:48,350 --> 00:18:48,830 S1: I suppose. 339 00:18:48,830 --> 00:18:49,310 S3: He can. 340 00:18:49,350 --> 00:18:52,590 S1: He can he can comfortably rely on the the shortness 341 00:18:52,590 --> 00:18:55,590 S1: of Trump's attention span. And he's a very evident distraction 342 00:18:55,590 --> 00:18:58,550 S1: at the moment from the Board of Peace. Paul, let's 343 00:18:58,550 --> 00:19:02,470 S1: just segue very quickly to the Liberal Party internal review, 344 00:19:02,510 --> 00:19:05,629 S1: just for listeners who aren't caught up after every election. 345 00:19:05,630 --> 00:19:08,190 S1: The Liberal Party does a major internal review to determine 346 00:19:08,190 --> 00:19:11,270 S1: what went wrong or what went right. A lot went wrong. 347 00:19:11,470 --> 00:19:13,750 S1: I think we can say at the 2025 election for 348 00:19:13,750 --> 00:19:17,709 S1: the Liberal Party, the review has been done for months now, 349 00:19:17,710 --> 00:19:19,670 S1: but the party's been sitting on it, refusing to make 350 00:19:19,670 --> 00:19:22,869 S1: it public. Peter Dutton, former opposition leader, has been threatening 351 00:19:22,910 --> 00:19:25,429 S1: to sue over it and the decision was kind of 352 00:19:25,510 --> 00:19:27,350 S1: taken out of their hands this week because Prime Minister 353 00:19:27,350 --> 00:19:31,790 S1: Albanese gleefully tabled in parliament. I think everybody and their 354 00:19:31,790 --> 00:19:33,630 S1: dog had a copy of this review. If it got 355 00:19:33,630 --> 00:19:36,630 S1: to the Prime Minister, what did the review say and 356 00:19:36,630 --> 00:19:39,190 S1: why did they want to suppress it so much? 357 00:19:40,310 --> 00:19:42,950 S2: The review didn't say that much. That hasn't already been 358 00:19:42,950 --> 00:19:46,750 S2: traversed in the public either. In our reporting in Niki 359 00:19:46,750 --> 00:19:51,070 S2: Savva's book earthquake, in so much of the public navel 360 00:19:51,070 --> 00:19:53,910 S2: gazing the Liberal Party has engaged in for however many 361 00:19:53,910 --> 00:19:56,630 S2: months it's been now. So in some ways, this this 362 00:19:56,630 --> 00:20:00,030 S2: document wasn't quite as, you know, earth shattering as it 363 00:20:00,030 --> 00:20:01,750 S2: was made out to be in the, in the, in 364 00:20:01,790 --> 00:20:05,440 S2: the public discussion. But what occurred here was that as 365 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,960 S2: the report was finalised late last year, Peter Dutton was 366 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,680 S2: given a copy only as the party's federal executive was 367 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,280 S2: reading it for the first time. So there was a 368 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,760 S2: meeting in mid-December, just before the Bondi massacre, where the 369 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,280 S2: federal executive got the documents printed out. They weren't allowed 370 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,479 S2: digital copies, so they couldn't leak it. And at the 371 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,240 S2: exact moment the meeting started, Peter Dutton got it in 372 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,159 S2: his inbox and got a call or a text or 373 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,919 S2: some from someone saying you have the report. Now, he 374 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,680 S2: was offended that he got it only at the same 375 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:34,919 S2: time as the federal executive, because he believed that he 376 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,359 S2: didn't have time to respond, and he actually sent a 377 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:40,400 S2: message to John Olsen, the president of the federal executive, 378 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,600 S2: who read out Dutton's message in the meeting. And the 379 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,000 S2: message said, I've just had a look through this thing. 380 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,440 S2: There are factual errors. There are defamatory comments about me. 381 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,040 S2: If this thing sees the light of day, I will 382 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,880 S2: engage lawyers. I have already started the process of engaging 383 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,680 S2: lawyers to stop this thing being made public. So from 384 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,360 S2: that moment on, it was tainted and he took issue 385 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:05,609 S2: to the kind of florid and in some ways really 386 00:21:05,609 --> 00:21:11,369 S2: brazenly honest way he was described. It referenced candidates about it. 387 00:21:11,369 --> 00:21:13,729 S1: I thought it was, um, it was pretty standard. I 388 00:21:13,730 --> 00:21:16,130 S1: read it and it said that he was not attractive 389 00:21:16,130 --> 00:21:17,170 S1: to women, which he took. 390 00:21:17,210 --> 00:21:19,730 S3: Which he's taken offense to. He seems to have taken 391 00:21:19,730 --> 00:21:23,090 S3: very literally, but I could imagine reading it as women 392 00:21:23,090 --> 00:21:25,210 S3: did not want to vote for you. Yeah. 393 00:21:25,290 --> 00:21:25,810 S1: Rather than. 394 00:21:25,810 --> 00:21:26,810 S3: I read physical sense. 395 00:21:26,850 --> 00:21:27,970 S2: I read it that way as well. 396 00:21:28,010 --> 00:21:30,369 S1: I mean, I don't I don't know what what business 397 00:21:30,369 --> 00:21:33,250 S1: to political sort of political party reviewers would have had 398 00:21:33,250 --> 00:21:36,770 S1: making comments about his personal appearance. I mean, what's the 399 00:21:36,810 --> 00:21:40,570 S1: sort of upshot from it? Just quickly, Peter Dutton was upset, 400 00:21:40,570 --> 00:21:42,649 S1: but it's all out in the open now. Will they 401 00:21:42,650 --> 00:21:45,770 S1: just quickly move on? Is it just sort of, you know, 402 00:21:45,810 --> 00:21:48,970 S1: have the recommendations of the review actually been adopted? 403 00:21:49,970 --> 00:21:52,489 S2: Just to circle back quickly on the Dutton offense? It 404 00:21:52,490 --> 00:21:56,449 S2: was it wasn't just him who had the feeling after 405 00:21:56,450 --> 00:22:00,490 S2: reading it that it was far too descriptive and honest. 406 00:22:00,530 --> 00:22:03,570 S2: These reports are usually written in a very sober way 407 00:22:03,890 --> 00:22:06,780 S2: so as to set a person to sleep. This is 408 00:22:06,780 --> 00:22:10,460 S2: the first review anyone can recall that just kind of 409 00:22:10,660 --> 00:22:15,300 S2: included the observations of a candidate, or the observations of 410 00:22:15,300 --> 00:22:18,300 S2: the reviewers themselves, in a very open and honest manner. 411 00:22:18,380 --> 00:22:22,060 S2: It wasn't written in the kind of short, concise, black 412 00:22:22,060 --> 00:22:25,500 S2: and white, legally sound way, as these reports usually are, 413 00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:28,260 S2: so that that got people's backups. It backs up even 414 00:22:28,260 --> 00:22:31,140 S2: the people who are not. Peter Dutton fans thought the 415 00:22:31,140 --> 00:22:34,260 S2: report could have been written in a way that spared 416 00:22:34,460 --> 00:22:36,820 S2: Dutton and many others embarrassment. But anyway, putting that to 417 00:22:36,859 --> 00:22:37,380 S2: one side. 418 00:22:37,420 --> 00:22:39,980 S1: Could have been whitewashed a bit more. Yeah. 419 00:22:40,420 --> 00:22:42,740 S2: Well. But I mean, it's not it's not the parties. 420 00:22:43,220 --> 00:22:45,939 S2: Why would a political party write some scathing review of 421 00:22:45,940 --> 00:22:47,220 S2: itself and put that into the. 422 00:22:47,300 --> 00:22:50,420 S1: Because the result was so bad that, you know, maybe 423 00:22:50,420 --> 00:22:52,940 S1: something different has had to happen. I mean, Jane Hume 424 00:22:53,580 --> 00:22:55,460 S1: sort of getting off track here, but Jane Hume, who's 425 00:22:55,460 --> 00:22:59,180 S1: now obviously the deputy leader, famously did the last election 426 00:22:59,180 --> 00:23:02,580 S1: review didn't work very well. None of the recommendations were 427 00:23:02,580 --> 00:23:05,270 S1: taken up. And they got a huge, you know, bashing 428 00:23:05,310 --> 00:23:07,510 S1: at the next election, which has almost put them out 429 00:23:07,510 --> 00:23:09,030 S1: of business as a political party. 430 00:23:09,470 --> 00:23:11,950 S2: Totally. But it's pretty abnormal practice for a political party 431 00:23:11,950 --> 00:23:15,270 S2: to be scathing of individuals and have that report be public. 432 00:23:15,270 --> 00:23:17,469 S2: Like that's not an obligation. They have no obligation to 433 00:23:17,510 --> 00:23:20,310 S2: the public. They have an obligation to their members to 434 00:23:20,350 --> 00:23:21,390 S2: make change, but not to. 435 00:23:21,430 --> 00:23:23,710 S1: Release a document, I guess. But yeah, so it was 436 00:23:23,750 --> 00:23:26,109 S1: I mean, it's been it's been controversial. And I suppose 437 00:23:26,190 --> 00:23:30,190 S1: the upshot is that it's, it's just sowed more bad blood. Yeah. 438 00:23:30,470 --> 00:23:31,670 S1: In the Liberal Party. 439 00:23:32,230 --> 00:23:35,590 S2: And the fact that they've been able to stuff up 440 00:23:35,590 --> 00:23:38,270 S2: what is meant to be a process of positive change 441 00:23:38,270 --> 00:23:42,429 S2: in such an extraordinarily public and humiliating manner and to 442 00:23:42,470 --> 00:23:45,590 S2: have tried to suppress this thing, uh, which led to 443 00:23:45,590 --> 00:23:48,389 S2: the obvious next step of it being leaked and poured 444 00:23:48,390 --> 00:23:50,429 S2: over in in more detail than it would have been 445 00:23:50,430 --> 00:23:52,670 S2: if they'd just released it publicly. Just goes to show 446 00:23:52,670 --> 00:23:55,390 S2: the malaise in the organisation, the lack of trust between 447 00:23:55,390 --> 00:24:01,470 S2: key individuals, the just moribund nature of the party's professional staff. 448 00:24:01,590 --> 00:24:02,710 S2: They're in a world of pain. 449 00:24:02,750 --> 00:24:05,430 S1: Yeah. Naughty. Anything to add there? What do you think 450 00:24:05,430 --> 00:24:07,750 S1: of the Liberal Party election review scandal? 451 00:24:07,750 --> 00:24:10,790 S3: That I was surprised reading it. It's of course great 452 00:24:10,790 --> 00:24:13,550 S3: to have these things leaked and to be able to 453 00:24:13,550 --> 00:24:16,430 S3: read it for ourselves, but everything I've read of it 454 00:24:16,470 --> 00:24:20,710 S3: isn't that surprising. Besides some of the florid descriptions, the 455 00:24:20,710 --> 00:24:24,110 S3: effort to keep it secret probably just generated even more 456 00:24:24,310 --> 00:24:27,109 S3: interest in it than than they would already be. I 457 00:24:27,109 --> 00:24:31,270 S3: was just interested in asking Paul whether does it have 458 00:24:31,270 --> 00:24:35,470 S3: any persuasive answers, not just backward looking about. To be honest, 459 00:24:35,470 --> 00:24:37,390 S3: it is a bit out of date now in terms 460 00:24:37,390 --> 00:24:38,949 S3: of how different the world is. We have such a 461 00:24:38,950 --> 00:24:42,590 S3: different leader. Does it actually have persuasive recommendations for how 462 00:24:42,590 --> 00:24:44,230 S3: they could get back on track? 463 00:24:44,310 --> 00:24:47,790 S2: Yeah. It has it has some critical recommendations that have 464 00:24:47,790 --> 00:24:50,550 S2: already been adopted. That's another paradox here is that the 465 00:24:50,550 --> 00:24:53,750 S2: federal executive in December actually agreed, you know, in full 466 00:24:53,790 --> 00:24:57,790 S2: to adopt the recommendations. So nobody suggests it hasn't suggested 467 00:24:57,790 --> 00:25:01,869 S2: positive change. And they largely organizational changes around codifying the 468 00:25:01,869 --> 00:25:05,680 S2: role of the federal director. Who's the campaign Uh, because 469 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,520 S2: there was this contest between Dutton's office and the campaign 470 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,160 S2: professional staff as to who actually had control. So there's 471 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,840 S2: some very practical, not very sexy suggestions that were put 472 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,640 S2: forward that have been adopted. 473 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,440 S1: But they're not the ones grabbing the headlines, unfortunately for 474 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,320 S1: Peter Dutton. Fellas, that's been a very illuminating chat and 475 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,360 S1: I really appreciate you both coming on. We'll see you 476 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,640 S1: next week. Paul and Nadia hope I'll see you very, 477 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:29,240 S1: very soon. 478 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,199 S3: Any time. Just give me a call. 479 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:32,720 S2: Thanks, guys. 480 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:39,840 S1: You can read all of our political news on our 481 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:46,200 S1: website or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong 482 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,919 S1: with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, 483 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,680 S1: and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. 484 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,560 S1: Before you go, follow Inside Politics and leave us a 485 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,840 S1: review on Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley. Thank you 486 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:00,440 S1: for listening.