WEBVTT - The issues that matter with Professor David Flint

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<v Speaker 1>Now on Overnight, Professor David Flint analyzes the important offense

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<v Speaker 1>of the week. Hello, Professor David Flint, how are you

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<v Speaker 1>this morning?

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, Tille, How are.

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<v Speaker 1>You good now? I hope there won't be any obscenities

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<v Speaker 1>during this chat that we have here a Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you are well known for the invective, but.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll try and control myself on this occasion.

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<v Speaker 1>Phil Okay, Well, it's been a very interesting time with

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump. How do you think he's going And do

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<v Speaker 1>you think, and according to your Spectator article that it

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<v Speaker 1>is regime change time?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it is approaching that that may well

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<v Speaker 2>be the reason why they have difficulty having these fire.

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<v Speaker 2>They want disease fire, but they can't. They don't really

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<v Speaker 2>want it, you know what I mean, But they realize

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<v Speaker 2>that that's the only thing they can do to continue,

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<v Speaker 2>and think they desperately need these fire It's probably their

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<v Speaker 2>only chance of surviving. I don't think they have a

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<v Speaker 2>great chance of surviving. The terrible thing would be if

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<v Speaker 2>this regime were replaced by exactly the same people, but

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<v Speaker 2>who are lowered down in the hierarchy, who then continue

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<v Speaker 2>with a similar policy to That's why I think that

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<v Speaker 2>the really good thing would be if the Shah's son

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<v Speaker 2>were able to come in as the head of the

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<v Speaker 2>interim government and do what he says, and that is,

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<v Speaker 2>within one hundred days after a transition, there'd be a

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<v Speaker 2>referendum that the new government, the new system be secular,

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<v Speaker 2>as to say, not religious, and be democratic and the

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<v Speaker 2>form of it be left to the people.

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<v Speaker 1>But people are concerned. People are concerned that regime change

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<v Speaker 1>may bring in more hardliners.

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<v Speaker 2>Well that's the danger, isn't it, That it'll be just

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<v Speaker 2>be just the same sort of people, because there's so

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<v Speaker 2>many of them in the Revolutionary Guard. But I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think it would go along with what the people want.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the people are sick and tired of this

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<v Speaker 2>system and they would really like to go back to

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<v Speaker 2>something like it was under the Shower.

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<v Speaker 1>How much of a say, though, will the people have?

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<v Speaker 1>Do the people have enough power to do that? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>would they be a little afraid to cause that kind

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<v Speaker 1>of trouble and have that kind of uprising?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, speaking in a country where where the ruling party

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<v Speaker 2>gets a third of the vote and ends up with

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<v Speaker 2>almost two thirds of the seats, I can understand that

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<v Speaker 2>sort of thing. There's a danger, particularly in countries like Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>of the people not being in any way represented. There's

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<v Speaker 2>a great danger of that. Hopefully that with Trump taking

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<v Speaker 2>a leading role, there will be less chance of that.

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<v Speaker 2>I think he will be he will be supervising it.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think. I think he's not going to be

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<v Speaker 2>closely involved. And that was the big problem in previous cases.

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<v Speaker 2>Certainly when it came to Japan after the war, it

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<v Speaker 2>was MacArthur and Truman who kept the emperor in against

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<v Speaker 2>very strong Australian which is Australian's The Australian government wanted

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<v Speaker 2>hero Hito tried as a war criminal. They probably would

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<v Speaker 2>have liked to have seen him hanged, as the Prime

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<v Speaker 2>Minister was, but that wasn't going to happen because MacArthur

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<v Speaker 2>and Truman realized that if he wanted to rule Japan

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<v Speaker 2>and bring it towards modern democracy, liberate the country and

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<v Speaker 2>turn it into the great economic success as it turned out,

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<v Speaker 2>the only way to do that, the only way to

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<v Speaker 2>the country quiet was to keep the emperor. If you

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<v Speaker 2>got rid of the empers straight where you would have

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<v Speaker 2>lost control over the population. There would have been many

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<v Speaker 2>who would have wanted to fight to the death, and

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<v Speaker 2>they would have fought to the death because we saw

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<v Speaker 2>that during the war.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we have seen history like this before. Nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>seventy nine would be a good example, wouldn't that the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian Revolution?

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yes, oh yes, most definitely. And it was Carter

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<v Speaker 2>who pulled the rug under the shah Shah. The Show

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<v Speaker 2>was leading the country, which was the great ally of

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<v Speaker 2>the West in the Middle East, and a powerful country.

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<v Speaker 2>Made the country much more powerful than it ever was.

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<v Speaker 2>The military was powerful, it was industrializing. Women were liberated

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<v Speaker 2>and if you go back, you just google women in

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<v Speaker 2>Tehran and you'll see that they were glamorous, they were fashionable.

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<v Speaker 2>It was a very interesting place, and they were liberated.

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<v Speaker 2>And the Show had no problems with that and encouraged that.

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<v Speaker 2>It was very much an order society because as you

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<v Speaker 2>mentioned that that coup as it was called in fifty three,

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<v Speaker 2>which the British and the Americans pushed was to get

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<v Speaker 2>rid of the government that had emerged from the parliament Mosadic.

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<v Speaker 2>Mosadic was pushing the government towards the left and to

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<v Speaker 2>take over all of the foreign companies and have a

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<v Speaker 2>much more socialist system. And the British Americans wanted the

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<v Speaker 2>Shah to take over, and they effectively authorized the much

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<v Speaker 2>more authoritarian system, a quasi democracy, which is how the

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<v Speaker 2>Shah rain and it was we got Carter objecting to

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<v Speaker 2>that and dealing with the opposition, including the Mullers, and

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<v Speaker 2>the result was that there was a number of opponents

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<v Speaker 2>to the Shah. Were the ones that stood out with

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<v Speaker 2>the extreme religious group who were in the seventh century

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<v Speaker 2>with seventh century form of the Islamic religion, and they

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<v Speaker 2>wanted twenty first century weapons so that they could deal

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<v Speaker 2>with Islam, so that they could then move on to

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<v Speaker 2>the Sunni Arabs and move on to the Christian areas.

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<v Speaker 2>That they are a really dangerous lot to ones who

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<v Speaker 2>have been running Iran, and it's good that they're getting

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<v Speaker 2>rid of being got rid of. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the problem being, and you'd be fully aware

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<v Speaker 1>of this too, is that you know, trying to change

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<v Speaker 1>the government through outside forces will just plunge that region

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<v Speaker 1>into more termoil it to.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's and I think that's something that see.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Club has valuable instincts and common sense. He

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<v Speaker 2>has an interesting way of expressing himself, a blunt wave

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<v Speaker 2>expressing reserves. We just heard which you couldn't play on

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<v Speaker 2>the radio, that you have to be up. But he

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<v Speaker 2>understands human nature and he's quite open about it in

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<v Speaker 2>a way that other leaders are not open about it.

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<v Speaker 2>And as Greg Sheridan said in Australian, Sheridan has previously

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<v Speaker 2>had very little time for Trump, as the whole Australian

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<v Speaker 2>really turned againt well, the whole media has been against

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<v Speaker 2>him in Australia. But he said, of what Netanya Who

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<v Speaker 2>was able to do in Iran, only Trump would have

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<v Speaker 2>allowed Bettanya Who to do that. And that was a

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<v Speaker 2>spectacular operation by Israel, the way they dealt with the

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<v Speaker 2>situation and chopped off the heads of all of the powerful,

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<v Speaker 2>dangerous institutions which were keeping the country under control and

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<v Speaker 2>also pushing this curious foreign policy.

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<v Speaker 1>So we talked about, you know, foreign policy. So Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump came in here with his policy of not getting

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<v Speaker 1>involved in overseas wars, and now he's knee deep in

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<v Speaker 1>it again. And as a result of this, it seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be splitting his base down the middle. Where do

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<v Speaker 1>you think this leaves him going forward? Because he's got

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the extreme maga on one side, who seemed

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<v Speaker 1>to be splitting off Marjorie Taylor Green and people like that.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you've got the other side, the Republicans, who

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<v Speaker 1>also seem to be a little concerned about you know

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<v Speaker 1>where this is going, what do you think is going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the polling is very strongly inv over him. There

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<v Speaker 2>was a couple of pearls which have suggested either eighty

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<v Speaker 2>percent or close to eighty percent of Republicans support him

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<v Speaker 2>and in the high seventies for Maga. He has no

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<v Speaker 2>problems in relation to the numbers. The rank and files

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<v Speaker 2>support him, But he's some individuals who think they know

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<v Speaker 2>more about Mega than he does. And I don't think that.

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<v Speaker 2>I think they're just going to have little effect as

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<v Speaker 2>long as he does what he wants to do and

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<v Speaker 2>he takes the view he understands what Sunzu argued in

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<v Speaker 2>ancient China that the supreme art of the war is

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<v Speaker 2>to subdue the enemy without fighting. That's a brilliant a

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<v Speaker 2>brilliant thesis. But there's a corollary which Truck realizes, sometimes

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<v Speaker 2>you have to fight, but the better thing to do

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<v Speaker 2>if fighting is unavoidable, you have to be as clinical

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<v Speaker 2>and as minimal as possible, you mustn't have you mustn't

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<v Speaker 2>have a land army there Vietnam style. That was wrong,

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<v Speaker 2>So was Afghanistan, so was Iraq. He would never have

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<v Speaker 2>been involved in that. He's never said he wouldn't take

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<v Speaker 2>clinical measures, which he did during his first term. He

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<v Speaker 2>took action to see that some matters didn't continue. But

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<v Speaker 2>they were very quick, very fast. And that is a

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<v Speaker 2>corollary of the doctrine of Sunsu that if fighting is unavoidable,

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<v Speaker 2>do it quickly and do it as clinically as possible,

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<v Speaker 2>which you can do much more now with modern weapons.

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<v Speaker 2>And what he did in relation to the flattening of

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<v Speaker 2>the nuclear power, the nuclear stations or not stations, nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>facilities was to just deal with them so that they

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<v Speaker 2>could never be used again. I can't and see how

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<v Speaker 2>they will be of any use to anybody again with

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<v Speaker 2>what they did to them. I know that some of

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<v Speaker 2>the media and America saying, oh, they could still be

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<v Speaker 2>used or they could still be recuperated, but I have

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<v Speaker 2>grave doubts about that. And if they, if they can be,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump wouldn't be restrained in any way from doing it again,

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<v Speaker 2>and doing it at at a heavy level. And I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think he need. I think they're in such a

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<v Speaker 2>state that they are useless, which doesn't mean it doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>mean that this government wouldn't try and do it again.

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<v Speaker 2>And we've had the Russian former Russian president saying, well,

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<v Speaker 2>one of the one of the Axis powers could sell

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<v Speaker 2>them nuclear weapons, and that's always possible, because that's what

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<v Speaker 2>that's what North Korea did in relation to Pakistan. They're

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<v Speaker 2>probably willing to provide weapons, but think that the United

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<v Speaker 2>States would be on to that and would stop it.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, you would think so, although there's talk of what

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<v Speaker 1>happened to the four hundred kilograms of uranium that may

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<v Speaker 1>or may not have been transported away from four though

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<v Speaker 1>before the bunker busters hit. So if that's the case,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'd heard stories about that, surely they would have

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<v Speaker 1>intelligence to know that that had happened.

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<v Speaker 2>I would have thought so. I don't think that would

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<v Speaker 2>have happened without the Americans knowing, and certainly Mossad knowing.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the Israelis would have been on top of that.

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<v Speaker 2>They were terribly well informed, informed to the extent that

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<v Speaker 2>they were able to penetrate all of the resources, all

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<v Speaker 2>of the subterfugions of the government to get people whom

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<v Speaker 2>they particularly want us to get rid of.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think this ceasefire is going to hold? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's barely holding from the outset here. Do you

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<v Speaker 1>think that this will continue to be precarious or do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that somebody eventually will go and hopefully Iran

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<v Speaker 1>will go. Well, okay, you know, let's let's try and

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<v Speaker 1>find a peaceful way out of this.

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<v Speaker 2>My feeling is around will they will go along with

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<v Speaker 2>it reluctantly because they think this is the only way

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<v Speaker 2>that they can survive. I think that they know that

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<v Speaker 2>they are hated by the population. They know that they

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<v Speaker 2>can depend on the Guard, the Revolutionary Guard, but they

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<v Speaker 2>know that the Israel has the measure of them, and

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<v Speaker 2>if necessary get can keep on removing the leadership of

0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.520
<v Speaker 2>the Revolutionary Guard, which will make it very difficult for

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<v Speaker 2>them to operate in the way that they have in

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<v Speaker 2>the past. In fact, the next stage of this, if

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<v Speaker 2>the cease fire breaks down, Israel will make sure that

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<v Speaker 2>the regime as it presently is is in a very

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<v Speaker 2>difficult position to preserve itself, which will unleash the forces

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<v Speaker 2>on the ground. Now the Israelis will never have there'll

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<v Speaker 2>never be in a position to be able to dictate

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<v Speaker 2>who the new regime will be, as the Americans did,

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<v Speaker 2>and they did it badly in Afghanistan, and they did

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<v Speaker 2>it badly in Iraq. And I don't think Trump will

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<v Speaker 2>be involved in that either. So there's a hope that

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<v Speaker 2>the son of the Shah would be the ideal person.

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<v Speaker 2>But he certainly has considerable support among the emigrets living

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<v Speaker 2>in the West, but what support he has within the

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<v Speaker 2>Iran at the present time is unknown. There's probably a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of nostalgia for the past. In fact, I've found

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<v Speaker 2>going around using ubers and you find you have an

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<v Speaker 2>Afghanistani driver or you have one from Iran, and you

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<v Speaker 2>just ask them how it used to be, and they

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<v Speaker 2>refer to what their parents said. And I've had both

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<v Speaker 2>in relation to Iran and especially in relation to Afghanistan,

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<v Speaker 2>that under the Shau, under the king, it was a

0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 2>golden age, and they compare that to today because under these regimes,

0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 2>life is very very strict, very bitter, and particularly for women.

0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:31.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, of course, let's just hope there's an appetite to

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:36.360
<v Speaker 1>acquiesce here and not the usual indoctrination of martyrdom, because

0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 1>that's the last direction I think you want to go in,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in the situation.

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<v Speaker 2>Like this, I think you're absolutely right, and the cease

0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:52.080
<v Speaker 2>fires precarious. Donald Trump has injected new strengths into it.

0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:57.000
<v Speaker 2>As we heard tonight, it will. I think Israel will

0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:03.600
<v Speaker 2>observe what he wants. They'll give the Iranians a chance.

0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:07.840
<v Speaker 2>This is not the Iranian people, this is the government,

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.120
<v Speaker 2>and they'll give them a chance, and if they are

0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:16.119
<v Speaker 2>genuine in wanting to retain it will There is obviously

0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:19.440
<v Speaker 2>going to be a problem in getting everybody at the

0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:22.600
<v Speaker 2>beginning to obey, because there would be some people who

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<v Speaker 2>would still want to go ahead and do things which

0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:30.080
<v Speaker 2>are in breach of the sease far. Well, they've got

0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 2>to control all of their people to make sure that

0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 2>sort of thing doesn't happen.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, Well, let's hope that from America's point of view,

0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 1>from Donald Trump's point of view, they can subdue the

0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:44.640
<v Speaker 1>enemy without fighting, and not the other popular sons who quote,

0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:46.960
<v Speaker 1>if you know your enemy and you know yourself, you

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:50.000
<v Speaker 1>need not fear the result of one hundred battles.

0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.640
<v Speaker 2>Yes, but I don't think the Americans want a one

0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:58.280
<v Speaker 2>hundred battles And I'm sure Trump doesn't want that and

0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:01.840
<v Speaker 2>knows that his supporters don't want it. That's it.

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<v Speaker 1>The article will be Thursday in the Spectator Trump's Exceptional

0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:10.560
<v Speaker 1>leadership Regime Change. Time to bring back the Shah, but

0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 1>time to say good evening to the good professor until

0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:15.719
<v Speaker 1>next week. Thank you so much again, David, thank you,

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much too,