WEBVTT - The issues that matter with Professor David Flint

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<v Speaker 1>Now on Overnights, Professor David Flett analyzes the important events

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<v Speaker 1>of the week. Oh finally, some insanity shall prevail. How

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<v Speaker 1>are you good, Professor?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there you Phil and how are you.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm very well. I'd like to talk to you about

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of things. We're pretty much on the same

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<v Speaker 1>page with this article. Another great one you've written in

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<v Speaker 1>the Spectator enriching Beijing flirting with Tehran. Let's talk about

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<v Speaker 1>that certainly.

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<v Speaker 2>Well. The government, the Australian government, which is led a

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<v Speaker 2>hard lived leader. He comes from the hard left, was

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<v Speaker 2>the American's the far left, and he is breaking away

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<v Speaker 2>to some degree from American policy. And I'm not surprised

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<v Speaker 2>that he is obviously not prepared. He doesn't want to

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<v Speaker 2>go to the White House. He knows he'll be he'll

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<v Speaker 2>be in difficulties there when he appears before the President.

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<v Speaker 2>And this idea of slipping it in on the sidelines

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<v Speaker 2>of the G seven was never a good idea. There

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<v Speaker 2>would never be enough time to deal with the problems appropriately.

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<v Speaker 2>But he just doesn't want to see the President. And

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sure he's delighted by the fact that the President

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<v Speaker 2>has gone off. Do you believe that Okay, right, that's

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<v Speaker 2>my view. I don't think it's at all disappointed. I

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<v Speaker 2>think he's delighted because the last thing he wants is

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<v Speaker 2>to have to face the President, and he's going to

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<v Speaker 2>try and cover it with peripheral matters. But the President

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<v Speaker 2>was going to really come to the very important issues,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly of the fact that we are just not attending

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<v Speaker 2>to our defense, we've let it run down terribly, and

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<v Speaker 2>that this is a government which shows a real sheepishness

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<v Speaker 2>in relation to Beijing. I think they're very happy to

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<v Speaker 2>be the quiet tributary state Beijing and not disbehave in

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<v Speaker 2>any way. And we saw that when the Chinese Communists

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<v Speaker 2>came with their navy and started a firing exercise in

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<v Speaker 2>our waters in our economic zone. That didn't tell us

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<v Speaker 2>about it, and we had to rely on a civil

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<v Speaker 2>aviation pilot to tell us that this was going on.

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<v Speaker 2>And then they went round the country where they obviously

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<v Speaker 2>were conducting an intelligence operation in relation to our ports

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<v Speaker 2>and what we're doing. And it's extraordinary when you look

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<v Speaker 2>at the situation in relation to climate change, and I

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<v Speaker 2>must say once again we said we're having a very

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<v Speaker 2>cold winter for a world in which the climate's supposed

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<v Speaker 2>to be warming, and we've had a very moderate suhow

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<v Speaker 2>we don't have the heat waves that we used to have.

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<v Speaker 2>But there's an obsession with this. But scientists to support

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<v Speaker 2>the view that man is contributing to climate change all agree.

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<v Speaker 2>Nobody challenges the puposition that what we're doing is not

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<v Speaker 2>going to change the climate in the slightest. We're spending

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<v Speaker 2>this enormous amount of money, We're running down industries. We're

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<v Speaker 2>changing what was a cheap and reliable grid, We're changing

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<v Speaker 2>that to something which is expensive and something which is unreliable.

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<v Speaker 2>And nobody's benefiting except for a few people who are

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<v Speaker 2>supportive of this, particularly those in the political class who

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<v Speaker 2>are behind candidates and who are making a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>money out of renewables. But the only organization which is

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<v Speaker 2>profiting from all this enormously is the Communist Party of China.

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<v Speaker 2>It's extraordinary, And why are they doing this. Why do

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<v Speaker 2>they take the view that we must be very quiet

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<v Speaker 2>and say nothing when the Chinese navy behoves provocatively. We've

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<v Speaker 2>just got to accept all this. And then, in relation

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<v Speaker 2>to what's happening in the Middle East, they've pulled away

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<v Speaker 2>very much from American policy when we were asked to

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<v Speaker 2>provide a ship, not because the Americans needed a ship,

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<v Speaker 2>but because they wanted it is a multi national fleet

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<v Speaker 2>to go there and deal with the hootsies, who are

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<v Speaker 2>terrorists funded by Tehran. The government refused to send one,

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<v Speaker 2>which is the first time I think we've done anything

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<v Speaker 2>like that. And we're pulling away from Israel. We seem

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<v Speaker 2>to be treating Israel. Israel is the hostile country, whereas

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<v Speaker 2>everybody knows, and Trump has been the one to work

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<v Speaker 2>this out, that America and Israel can't allow Tehran to

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<v Speaker 2>have atomic weapons because they're very open a gender is

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<v Speaker 2>and they now that in the maxims, the slogans that

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<v Speaker 2>they pronounce regularly, death to Israel and death to America.

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<v Speaker 2>And we know that this dangerous, quite insane regime will

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<v Speaker 2>do terrible things if they get nuclear weapons, and they

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<v Speaker 2>seem to be intent, or there seem to be intent.

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<v Speaker 2>They are intent on getting them, and Israel cannot tolerate

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<v Speaker 2>that because as Netanyo who said, they had one holocaust

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<v Speaker 2>in the previous century and they're not going to have

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<v Speaker 2>another holocaust.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I was thinking about the other day too.

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<v Speaker 1>Just moving back to China. I saw this story Orrancy

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<v Speaker 1>and End's website. China's aircraft carriers send message in the

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<v Speaker 1>open Pacific for the first time, and bigger and more

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<v Speaker 1>powerful ships are coming. It's just there on a website

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<v Speaker 1>like it's hidden.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, And the leader has made it very clear that

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<v Speaker 2>he wants to know by twenty seven whether the Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>forces are in a position to take Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, that seems to be the date that's bandied around

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<v Speaker 1>a lot too, because a lot of people have said,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, under the cover of darkness, with this current distraction,

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, we can look at that. But I'd

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<v Speaker 1>heard twenty twenty seven bandied around a few times.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, several times. And it would be an obvious

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<v Speaker 2>thing to do if you were going to do this,

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<v Speaker 2>to do it when the United States is engaged heavily

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<v Speaker 2>in the Middle East, that would be the ideal time.

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<v Speaker 2>But as I've been arguing that column for a long time,

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<v Speaker 2>there is an axis which is Moscow, in Tehran, Beijing,

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<v Speaker 2>and Piangyang. And that axis is an axis which is

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<v Speaker 2>completely against our concepts of Western civilization and democracy and

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<v Speaker 2>the rule of law. It presents a very rival view

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<v Speaker 2>of the world, and it's something which goes completely against

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<v Speaker 2>what we believe in.

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<v Speaker 1>So what do you think is going on? Then? For

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<v Speaker 1>the last month, the Chinese aircraft carriers operating closer and

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<v Speaker 1>closer to us and further from their own shores. Are

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<v Speaker 1>they testing their technology testing the waters start?

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<v Speaker 2>Without doubt they are, and they're testing what they can

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<v Speaker 2>do in the event of the struggle. And the news

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<v Speaker 2>has come out recently that communication devices have been found

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<v Speaker 2>in solar panels and turbines and even electric cars, which

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<v Speaker 2>would allow those engaging to turn off the power to

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<v Speaker 2>these things, and that they're also have been looking at

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<v Speaker 2>the ways in which we communicate with the rest of

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<v Speaker 2>the world. Jim Moole and warned that if there were

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<v Speaker 2>an invasion of Taiwan, we might not know about it

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<v Speaker 2>because we might find that our communications with the world

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<v Speaker 2>have been turned off, which would be very easy to do.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, when you don't you have the ships

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<v Speaker 2>that can cut through these things. There have been cases

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<v Speaker 2>which have occurred in Europe where cables have been cut.

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<v Speaker 2>They think by well they know by Russian vessels that

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<v Speaker 2>these powers are considering. They're contemplating the ways in which

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<v Speaker 2>they should react if there is a breakouts of hostilities

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<v Speaker 2>concerning for example, concerning Taiwan, as there have been breakouts,

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<v Speaker 2>as there is a continuing war in the Ukraine, there

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<v Speaker 2>is a war in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>And as you've said time and time again on this program,

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<v Speaker 1>but of course on your articles as well, that Albanisi

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<v Speaker 1>and the government just seemed to be turning a blind,

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<v Speaker 1>iron ignorant i to this.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, they just don't seem to accept that these are

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<v Speaker 2>the serious problems. Well, what we've got now is this

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<v Speaker 2>ridiculous idea that they're calling both sides to de escalate

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<v Speaker 2>and go into negotiations. There was a stage in the

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<v Speaker 2>Second World War when the principal powers came together and

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<v Speaker 2>they said, what the position is of the West in

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<v Speaker 2>relation to Germany and Japan was unconditional surrender. There were

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<v Speaker 2>going to be no negotiations. There was going to be

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<v Speaker 2>no way in which there could be any any conditions

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<v Speaker 2>imposis by either powers. They would be just they would

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<v Speaker 2>have to be absolutely defeated, which of course they were.

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<v Speaker 2>There is a time in struggle when that happens, and

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump, probably against the wishes of Israel, insisted on

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<v Speaker 2>sixty days in which Tehran had the opportunity the choice

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<v Speaker 2>of voluntarily stopping the development of atomic weapons or having

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<v Speaker 2>it imposed on them, and on the sixty first day,

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<v Speaker 2>Israel attacked because Israel cannot tolerate Tehran having nuclear weapons,

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<v Speaker 2>because they know that these will be exploded over Israel

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<v Speaker 2>and be worse, probably than what happened in the Second

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<v Speaker 2>World War.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about history repeating after this, you don't mind

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<v Speaker 1>holding on a moment, certainly so just before the break,

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<v Speaker 1>we were talking about history repeating. You know, it feels,

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<v Speaker 1>it feels for the casual observer that here we are

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<v Speaker 1>staring into the abyss. And I mentioned that to you

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<v Speaker 1>off air when we were having a channel moment ago,

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<v Speaker 1>and you said, well, you know, nineteen fourteen. Are we

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<v Speaker 1>looking at some kind of repeat of history that goes

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<v Speaker 1>back to then back to nineteen fourteen.

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<v Speaker 2>It is possible. There's no requirement that this will happen,

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<v Speaker 2>there's no there's no promise that this will happen, but

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<v Speaker 2>it could happen. And if the resistance is such that

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<v Speaker 2>a number of powers in this axis of evil decide

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<v Speaker 2>to act together, then there could be a well, I

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<v Speaker 2>suspect that they won't. I suspect that, as with the

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<v Speaker 2>fall of the regime in Syria, Moscow will remain silent

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<v Speaker 2>because they're over committed. In relation to the Ukraine. I

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<v Speaker 2>doubt that the Chinese Communists will have been very careful

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<v Speaker 2>since since Korea and Vietnam. When they were defeated effectively

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<v Speaker 2>by another communist country in Vietnam, they realized that their

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<v Speaker 2>armies weren't weren't tried and tested, and that's why they

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<v Speaker 2>went back and they've they built up their armies, but

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<v Speaker 2>of course they still know that they haven't yet been

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<v Speaker 2>tried in the field. But they have advanced remarkably in

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<v Speaker 2>ensuring that they have the latest of everything in relation

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<v Speaker 2>to their weapons. They've been very good in getting the

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<v Speaker 2>necessary intellectual property, often taking it from the United States

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<v Speaker 2>and then using it and with their very good scientists,

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<v Speaker 2>developing it even further, so that they are very much,

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<v Speaker 2>very powerful in relation to military matters, and they do

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<v Speaker 2>it more cheaply than the West does. They do it

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<v Speaker 2>without the problems that you have in the West of

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<v Speaker 2>environmental considerations and the need to have the approval of

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<v Speaker 2>various levels of public authorities, and they're able to take

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<v Speaker 2>advantages that are just not available to us.

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<v Speaker 1>So, if you're going to draw a parallels between nineteen fourteen,

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<v Speaker 1>has the spark that ignited the conflict already happened or

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<v Speaker 1>is this still a possibility.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we've gone further than ever, or further than

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<v Speaker 2>at any time since the Cuban affair. Remember the Cuban

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<v Speaker 2>affair where the Russians were establishing bases in Cuba.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Christie, if I think that was wasn't it?

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<v Speaker 2>That's right? Yes, And they could reach the United States

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<v Speaker 2>with weapons there if they installed the missiles and so on,

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<v Speaker 2>And Kennedy issued an ultimatum, and the Russian ships continued

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<v Speaker 2>to approach the United States. The world watched in horror,

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<v Speaker 2>and fortunately the Russians turned around, they pulled their forces back,

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<v Speaker 2>and the Americans made some concessions in Turkey, they reduced

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<v Speaker 2>some bases there, and the Russians did not proceed further

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<v Speaker 2>with the very dangerous basis that they were going to

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<v Speaker 2>build in Tuma.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, because the solution to that was Kennedy offering them

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<v Speaker 1>to not have a loss of face. Are we in

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<v Speaker 1>a position where we have diplomatically the opportunities to do

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<v Speaker 1>that now?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think the Iranian mullers are worried about face.

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<v Speaker 2>I think they are worried, however, that they've been reduced

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<v Speaker 2>remarkably by the ingenuity of the Israelis. The Israelis have

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<v Speaker 2>really been able to destroy, as they say, decapitate a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of the power in Iran. They've been apparently instructed

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<v Speaker 2>by Trump not to kill the Supreme Leader, which obviously

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<v Speaker 2>is within the within their you know, they could do

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<v Speaker 2>that because they have done some remarkable things. And remember,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, when they used or they use all of

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<v Speaker 2>the mobile phones of those who were acting for the

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<v Speaker 2>regime and they use them as bombs.

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<v Speaker 1>That's right, the blackberries and the pages.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yes, the pages, and this was this was a

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<v Speaker 2>remarkable thing. And the fact that they have been able

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<v Speaker 2>to penetrate into Iran, They've been able to get into

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<v Speaker 2>places and have people eliminated who are running these affairs,

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<v Speaker 2>that has really shocked the Iranians. The government in Iran

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<v Speaker 2>is very unpopular. We foolishly, under Carter pulled the rug

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<v Speaker 2>under the Shah. The Shah was an authoritarian leader. He argued,

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<v Speaker 2>he said, well, this is the only way you can

0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:56.280
<v Speaker 2>rule Iran. You've got a rule it with a certain

0:15:56.280 --> 0:16:01.080
<v Speaker 2>degree of strength, but he really advanced the country. And

0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 2>when you look back on films and photographs of life

0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.760
<v Speaker 2>in Tehran at the time of the show, women were

0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:13.280
<v Speaker 2>dressed completely in the Western style. They were looking very

0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:17.200
<v Speaker 2>attractive and up to date. They were taking part in

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:23.320
<v Speaker 2>life and being involved in businesses and other activities. Since

0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.000
<v Speaker 2>this crowd of muellers have come in, they've turned everything

0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:32.480
<v Speaker 2>back to something belonging very much to the past, and

0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:36.320
<v Speaker 2>they are really hated, seems as far as I can

0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.400
<v Speaker 2>see from what I've been reading, by the Iranian people

0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:44.360
<v Speaker 2>and their hold over the country's weakened. And it's a

0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:47.680
<v Speaker 2>question as you said earlier, to an extent of face,

0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:52.480
<v Speaker 2>not that the regime worries about it, but face before

0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:57.200
<v Speaker 2>the Iranian people, and if they're seen as being weak,

0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:01.360
<v Speaker 2>this will only encourage Iranians to take action against them.

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:03.200
<v Speaker 1>So do you think that this is what this is

0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:05.800
<v Speaker 1>all about, then regime change? And if that's the case,

0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:09.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean previously with Iraq and Afghanistan that didn't go

0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:10.520
<v Speaker 1>down too well.

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:15.520
<v Speaker 2>No, I think that if they do that well. For example,

0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.920
<v Speaker 2>in Afghanistan, the Americans handled it very badly. As you say,

0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:21.800
<v Speaker 2>there was a move to bring back the king and

0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:27.200
<v Speaker 2>restore what was the old system of running Afghanistan, which

0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:31.560
<v Speaker 2>is what they did. But they rejected that and established

0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.440
<v Speaker 2>bulli in place people who should not have been running

0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:38.560
<v Speaker 2>the country, and it certainly didn't work. And a similar

0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:43.400
<v Speaker 2>thing happened in the Iraq. They're not very good.

0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:46.359
<v Speaker 1>No, well, there was never a contingency or an in

0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:51.240
<v Speaker 1>game or any kind of plan. From what I could gather, the.

0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:54.560
<v Speaker 2>Old powers from Europe are much better at this. The

0:17:54.600 --> 0:18:00.520
<v Speaker 2>British work and the French were by bringing in people

0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.479
<v Speaker 2>from the existing ruling class and ruling through them. But

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:07.600
<v Speaker 2>the Americas just allowed anybody to come in whom they

0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:11.280
<v Speaker 2>thought might be a good rule of the country, and

0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 2>they weren't the sort of people that should be doing that.

0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.520
<v Speaker 2>We saw that in Vietnam, we saw that in Iraq,

0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:19.760
<v Speaker 2>and we saw that in Afghanistan.

0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.920
<v Speaker 1>Well, history just repeats itself on that, doesn't it, over and.

0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:29.320
<v Speaker 2>Over And although no power, particularly the British, was able

0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.840
<v Speaker 2>to take Afghanistan, the way they ruled most of India

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:37.479
<v Speaker 2>and many of their colonies was through the existing ruling class,

0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:40.919
<v Speaker 2>as did the French, and that worked very well, and

0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:45.160
<v Speaker 2>quite often it produced a better form of government at

0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:48.639
<v Speaker 2>the time, because it allowed for the modernization of the

0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:54.560
<v Speaker 2>country and the elimination of practices which weren't acceptable in

0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.800
<v Speaker 2>a modern society. Of course, for example, in India they

0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:01.359
<v Speaker 2>got rid of suti, which was that there's an obligation

0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.879
<v Speaker 2>on the widow to jump on the sumial power of

0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:09.160
<v Speaker 2>the man who died, and that so offended the British

0:19:09.640 --> 0:19:13.000
<v Speaker 2>they made us illegal, and it was of course obviously

0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:15.719
<v Speaker 2>very good for the women of India.

0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:21.120
<v Speaker 1>The article in the Spectator this Thursday, it's called enriching

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:25.119
<v Speaker 1>Beijing flirting with Tehran. Let's talk again next week if

0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:25.760
<v Speaker 1>we're still here.

0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:34.520
<v Speaker 2>And I was very interested in Keith Suter's comment about

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:35.480
<v Speaker 2>the Shah.

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.280
<v Speaker 1>Yes, well, there was a quote from you once again

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.720
<v Speaker 1>where there are no guarantees. I liked that quote too,

0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:44.520
<v Speaker 1>you've given us because that applies to everything I think

0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:45.320
<v Speaker 1>he does.

0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:48.640
<v Speaker 2>Indeed, quickly, thank you, David, Thank you.