1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:04,040 S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:08,400 S1: This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris. It's Monday, 3 00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:14,960 S1: December 1st. When Pauline Hanson marched into the Senate last 4 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:17,800 S1: week wearing a burqa. It felt for a moment like 5 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:19,640 S1: we were back in the 1990s. 6 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:24,400 S2: She is disrespecting a faith. She is disrespecting the Muslims 7 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:28,120 S2: out there, Muslim Australians. It's absolutely unconstitutional. 8 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,600 S1: Those were the sorts of stunts and anti-immigration rhetoric that 9 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,480 S1: the former fish and chip shop owner from Ipswich used 10 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,440 S1: to pull when she first swept into power. But with 11 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,879 S1: a high profile member of parliament on the verge of 12 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,480 S1: defecting to her party and polling placing support for One 13 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:48,720 S1: Nation at its highest level since 1998, it appears that 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,480 S1: we are witnessing the second coming of One Nation today. 15 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:57,200 S1: Columnist and former associate editor of The Age, Shaun Carney, 16 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:00,520 S1: on what a rise in support for One Nation says 17 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:05,240 S1: about Australia. Welcome to the podcast. 18 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:06,280 S3: Hi, Samantha. 19 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,560 S1: So, Sean, we are talking to you on the afternoon 20 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:13,720 S1: that Barnaby Joyce formally announced his defection from the National Party, 21 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,520 S1: which we know clears his way to join One Nation. 22 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,480 S1: I guess it symbolizes perhaps the increasing power that One 23 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,400 S1: Nation has right now. I mean, you and I discussed 24 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,959 S1: before recording that polling just this month put support for 25 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,840 S1: the party at its highest levels in 27 years. So 26 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:31,360 S1: is this surprising to you? 27 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,600 S4: It is surprising, really, Samantha, I think one of the 28 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,360 S4: drivers of it is the terrible state in which the 29 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,920 S4: Liberal Party and the National Party, but particularly the Liberal Party, 30 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:44,920 S4: find themselves in. So it's sort of driving a lot 31 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,840 S4: of this support. But there's probably something else at work 32 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:54,960 S4: there as well, a general rearranging of political sympathies and, um, 33 00:01:55,680 --> 00:02:01,130 S4: views of the old parties and the newer parties across 34 00:02:01,130 --> 00:02:02,570 S4: the Australian electorate. 35 00:02:03,050 --> 00:02:05,050 S1: And before we get into what's behind this rise in 36 00:02:05,050 --> 00:02:07,930 S1: support of the party, can you just help us rewind 37 00:02:07,930 --> 00:02:09,650 S1: to the beginning for a moment to give us a 38 00:02:09,650 --> 00:02:13,010 S1: sense of where Pauline Hanson and this party actually came from. 39 00:02:13,250 --> 00:02:15,810 S1: So tell us about when she established this party and 40 00:02:15,810 --> 00:02:18,209 S1: how she got her start. Like what was her platform? 41 00:02:18,410 --> 00:02:22,970 S4: Come next March, it'll be 30 years since Pauline Hanson 42 00:02:22,970 --> 00:02:26,250 S4: was first elected to the federal parliament as the member 43 00:02:26,250 --> 00:02:29,810 S4: for the seat of Oxley. So she's been around politics 44 00:02:30,530 --> 00:02:34,530 S4: as an elected politician. That's how she started, anyway. There's 45 00:02:34,530 --> 00:02:36,130 S4: been a long period there in the middle where she 46 00:02:36,130 --> 00:02:38,290 S4: wasn't a member of Parliament, but of course she is now. 47 00:02:38,770 --> 00:02:40,889 S4: She's been around as long as Anthony Albanese. That was 48 00:02:40,889 --> 00:02:45,850 S4: his first election, too. So she's very much a known quantity. Very, 49 00:02:45,850 --> 00:02:48,490 S4: very few people have been around any longer than her. 50 00:02:48,889 --> 00:02:53,209 S4: She was the endorsed Liberal candidate for the safe labor 51 00:02:53,210 --> 00:02:55,810 S4: seat of Oxley in 1996. 52 00:02:59,169 --> 00:03:03,290 S5: Six weeks ago, hardly anyone had ever heard of Pauline Hanson. 53 00:03:03,610 --> 00:03:06,530 S5: Now she's the name in just about every radio bulletin, 54 00:03:06,530 --> 00:03:11,090 S5: every television newscast and newspaper. But did you expect this 55 00:03:11,090 --> 00:03:11,890 S5: many people? 56 00:03:12,770 --> 00:03:13,210 S2: No. 57 00:03:13,770 --> 00:03:16,690 S5: Did you expect to be on the front page of 58 00:03:16,690 --> 00:03:19,090 S5: the newspaper practically every day? 59 00:03:19,970 --> 00:03:20,370 S2: No. 60 00:03:20,770 --> 00:03:25,370 S4: This relatively new member, who was aged 41, called Pauline 61 00:03:25,370 --> 00:03:28,530 S4: Hanson in owned a fish and chip shop in a 62 00:03:28,530 --> 00:03:32,370 S4: part of Ipswich in Queensland. She vaulted to national fame 63 00:03:32,370 --> 00:03:36,530 S4: even before the election because she made some remarks about 64 00:03:36,530 --> 00:03:40,610 S4: the undesirability of so much welfare for Aboriginals. 65 00:03:40,730 --> 00:03:43,330 S6: With you, I'm indigenous. I was born here. I'm native 66 00:03:43,330 --> 00:03:44,050 S6: to the land. 67 00:03:44,530 --> 00:03:45,410 S7: She's indigenous. 68 00:03:46,010 --> 00:03:48,770 S6: Yes I am. Do you know the word indigenous? Yes 69 00:03:48,770 --> 00:03:51,210 S6: I do. Native to the land. I was born here. 70 00:03:52,130 --> 00:03:54,090 S6: Where's my land if it's not Australia? 71 00:03:54,570 --> 00:03:55,290 S7: Oh, England. 72 00:03:56,500 --> 00:04:00,860 S4: Some anti-Asian rhetoric as well. The Liberal Party sort of, 73 00:04:01,060 --> 00:04:04,780 S4: in a little bit of a panic, disendorsed her, but 74 00:04:04,780 --> 00:04:06,900 S4: she went on to win the seat with a swing 75 00:04:06,940 --> 00:04:10,340 S4: of almost 20%. That gave her a place in Australian 76 00:04:10,340 --> 00:04:11,740 S4: political history then and there. 77 00:04:12,260 --> 00:04:14,100 S8: I call the honourable member for Oxley. 78 00:04:14,820 --> 00:04:18,780 S6: I come here not as a polished politician, but as 79 00:04:18,779 --> 00:04:23,380 S6: a woman who has her fair share of night life's knocks. 80 00:04:24,140 --> 00:04:28,300 S4: The following year she formed a party, One Nation. It 81 00:04:28,300 --> 00:04:33,380 S4: had a very much a philosophical stances which were really 82 00:04:33,380 --> 00:04:34,900 S4: about turning the clock back. 83 00:04:36,779 --> 00:04:41,060 S9: Your website says that many consider Pauline Hanson to be 84 00:04:41,060 --> 00:04:43,860 S9: an outspoken soul that is simply ahead of her time. 85 00:04:44,300 --> 00:04:47,980 S9: Is that time 1950 ending multiculturalism. 86 00:04:48,339 --> 00:04:54,060 S4: Going back to economic protection, unwinding economically liberal reforms, and 87 00:04:54,220 --> 00:04:57,460 S4: very much a sort of going back to a monoculture. 88 00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:02,020 S4: What was the appeal with, uh, Pauline Hanson to a 89 00:05:02,020 --> 00:05:07,419 S4: lot of people? Well, she was an unmediated figure. Authentic. 90 00:05:07,700 --> 00:05:12,700 S4: Not in any way middle class, not, uh, articulate in 91 00:05:12,700 --> 00:05:15,700 S4: the way that we people in the media like to 92 00:05:15,700 --> 00:05:16,859 S4: see Articulacy. 93 00:05:18,500 --> 00:05:19,660 S5: Are you xenophobic? 94 00:05:21,380 --> 00:05:22,340 S6: Please explain. 95 00:05:25,020 --> 00:05:28,380 S5: Xenophobia means a fear of all things foreign. 96 00:05:30,540 --> 00:05:35,060 S6: No, I don't think I am. No I'm not. 97 00:05:35,580 --> 00:05:38,660 S4: She said what she thought, and it had resonance with 98 00:05:38,660 --> 00:05:41,380 S4: a lot of people who were uncomfortable with all the 99 00:05:41,380 --> 00:05:43,300 S4: changes that had been going on in the 70s, the 100 00:05:43,300 --> 00:05:45,180 S4: 80s and the early 90s. 101 00:05:46,820 --> 00:05:48,900 S1: I mean, she sure was unvarnished. I think many of 102 00:05:48,900 --> 00:05:51,860 S1: us remember her maiden speech. Uh, and it you know, 103 00:05:51,900 --> 00:05:55,589 S1: it shocked a lot of people, I think at the time, uh, 104 00:05:55,589 --> 00:05:58,469 S1: you know, she spoke about Australia being overrun by Asians. 105 00:05:58,470 --> 00:06:03,150 S1: She said she wanted to abolish multiculturalism. And, you know, 106 00:06:03,230 --> 00:06:06,070 S1: I think she wasn't a polished politician and she had 107 00:06:06,070 --> 00:06:08,190 S1: experienced a fair bit of hard knocks, you know. So 108 00:06:08,190 --> 00:06:11,550 S1: I'm just wondering, I guess, how much is there or 109 00:06:11,550 --> 00:06:14,469 S1: was there a cult of personality around Pauline Hanson at 110 00:06:14,470 --> 00:06:17,630 S1: the time that she was establishing herself? Because we often 111 00:06:17,630 --> 00:06:19,710 S1: talk about that cult of personality when we talk about 112 00:06:19,710 --> 00:06:22,670 S1: Donald Trump. Um, you know, a system which is like, 113 00:06:22,670 --> 00:06:25,550 S1: really centered around this charismatic leader. Is that what was 114 00:06:25,550 --> 00:06:26,870 S1: happening with Pauline Hanson? 115 00:06:27,430 --> 00:06:31,270 S4: Yes, yes it was. She was a charismatic figure to 116 00:06:31,430 --> 00:06:36,310 S4: a lot of people, especially men and women, but especially men, um, 117 00:06:36,510 --> 00:06:42,190 S4: people who felt disconnected from the economic system. Men who'd 118 00:06:42,190 --> 00:06:47,190 S4: also felt a little bit unmoored by, uh, the feminist wave, 119 00:06:47,230 --> 00:06:52,470 S4: you know, positive discrimination, the decline of traditional Manufacturing and 120 00:06:52,470 --> 00:06:55,750 S4: blue collar jobs. Paradoxically, because it was a woman that 121 00:06:55,750 --> 00:06:59,870 S4: they sort of attached themselves to politically. But in that 122 00:06:59,870 --> 00:07:04,350 S4: 1998 election, One Nation's first election, they got amazing numbers. 123 00:07:04,350 --> 00:07:08,469 S4: I think they got, uh, 8.4% of the the lower 124 00:07:08,470 --> 00:07:11,710 S4: house vote. That's the second. In fact, that's the highest 125 00:07:11,710 --> 00:07:15,950 S4: they've ever scored. Again, sort of counterintuitively, Hanson lost her 126 00:07:15,950 --> 00:07:18,830 S4: seat or lost her place in Parliament because she because 127 00:07:18,830 --> 00:07:22,150 S4: of a redistribution, she opted for another seat to stand in. 128 00:07:22,390 --> 00:07:24,150 S4: Looked like she would win it. She didn't. So she 129 00:07:24,150 --> 00:07:25,870 S4: was out of Parliament. And then she spent a long 130 00:07:25,870 --> 00:07:27,950 S4: time out of any parliament. 131 00:07:27,950 --> 00:07:30,090 S1: That's right. But it was A11. It was about a 132 00:07:30,090 --> 00:07:32,270 S1: million votes. I think that One Nation won in that 133 00:07:32,270 --> 00:07:35,110 S1: 1998 federal election. And it's interesting that you mentioned there 134 00:07:35,110 --> 00:07:37,310 S1: that she, of course, lost her own seat in the 135 00:07:37,310 --> 00:07:39,870 S1: national parliament, because I think that sort of foreshadows something 136 00:07:39,870 --> 00:07:41,710 S1: that we'll talk a bit about later, which is, uh, 137 00:07:41,710 --> 00:07:44,310 S1: the long standing chaos. I think that has sort of 138 00:07:44,350 --> 00:07:47,190 S1: always marked this party. But I guess what I wanted 139 00:07:47,190 --> 00:07:50,230 S1: to ask you is One Nation. So it had this 140 00:07:50,230 --> 00:07:54,080 S1: real explosion onto the political scene not long ago. ABC 141 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:58,120 S1: election watcher Antony Green called it the most extraordinary emergence 142 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:02,400 S1: of a party in modern Australian political history. So can 143 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,680 S1: you tell us a bit about how the party really 144 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,920 S1: threatened the power of the coalition, even back then? 145 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:12,160 S4: Well, uh, what happened in the vote in 1998 was 146 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:16,080 S4: that the the Howard government held on, but they held 147 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:18,000 S4: on with a majority of the lower house seats, but 148 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:21,600 S4: not a majority of the vote. The Labor Party secured 51% 149 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:23,760 S4: of the vote. And in fact, what had happened was 150 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,520 S4: that large One Nation vote acted as a sort of 151 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:32,319 S4: transmission belt of conservative votes to the Labor Party. So 152 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:38,160 S4: they were very much a threat to the coalition back then. Basically, 153 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:42,600 S4: all of the established parties refused to direct preferences to 154 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:45,720 S4: One Nation. John Howard at the time was a little 155 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,240 S4: reluctant to do it, but he was pushed into doing 156 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,559 S4: it by his deputy, Peter Costello, although at the time 157 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:55,280 S4: Howard could see that he didn't want to completely put 158 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:59,520 S4: all of those One Nation supporters offside. So he took 159 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,320 S4: credit in a way for allowing people to say what 160 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:07,280 S4: they thought more easily. He saw the electoral potency of 161 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:12,439 S4: One Nation and didn't want to completely declare it beyond 162 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,679 S4: the pale, and that sort of became the orthodoxy for 163 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,280 S4: quite a while. It's less so of the orthodoxy now, 164 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:19,920 S4: which we might talk about a bit later. 165 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:23,280 S1: And so what happened after that? Because Pauline Hanson experienced 166 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,559 S1: a long time in the political wilderness. Right. 167 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:26,720 S3: Mhm. Mhm. 168 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:34,000 S4: Yes. So there's so many divisions, arguments, court cases involving 169 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:34,959 S4: one nation. 170 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,160 S10: Off the hustings and into court. Pauline Hanson and her 171 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:42,439 S10: advisers interrupted the campaign to hear the judgment against the ABC. 172 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,319 S10: The song I'm a Back Door Man was first played 173 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:49,130 S10: on triple J last August, using the voice of Miss Hansen, 174 00:09:49,130 --> 00:09:51,010 S10: her words digitally rearranged. 175 00:09:51,090 --> 00:09:55,130 S6: Two. Three. Four. Five. Six. Seven. Eight. Racist. Rubbish. Racist. Hate. One. Two. 176 00:09:55,290 --> 00:09:59,209 S10: Queensland's Court of Appeal dismissed the ABC's case, declaring the 177 00:09:59,210 --> 00:10:02,570 S10: song exposed Miss Hanson to ridicule and contempt. 178 00:10:02,610 --> 00:10:07,330 S4: Eventually, Pauline Hanson was expelled from One Nation in 2002, 179 00:10:07,730 --> 00:10:12,489 S4: and in the following year she was convicted of electoral 180 00:10:12,490 --> 00:10:16,770 S4: fraud and spent 11 weeks in jail while her appeal 181 00:10:16,770 --> 00:10:20,370 S4: was being heard, and she won that appeal and the 182 00:10:20,370 --> 00:10:23,810 S4: the conviction was overturned. I mean, she's really she has 183 00:10:24,690 --> 00:10:29,569 S4: been through the wars. You could say she's an incredibly durable, 184 00:10:29,570 --> 00:10:32,209 S4: not just durable, but you would have to say resilient 185 00:10:32,210 --> 00:10:35,530 S4: person to have gone through all of that. And her 186 00:10:35,530 --> 00:10:40,210 S4: positions haven't changed. There's no flip flopping from Pauline Hanson, 187 00:10:40,210 --> 00:10:44,010 S4: but One Nation really was on its uppers. Now she 188 00:10:44,010 --> 00:10:47,970 S4: ended up rejoining One Nation in 2013. And yet that 189 00:10:47,970 --> 00:10:51,210 S4: 2013 election, the party was really on its uppers. It 190 00:10:51,210 --> 00:10:57,170 S4: secured 0.1 of one percentage point that election. But since 191 00:10:57,170 --> 00:11:00,050 S4: she rejoined, the party's numbers have gone up and at 192 00:11:00,050 --> 00:11:02,210 S4: the last election, I think they got somewhere in the 193 00:11:02,210 --> 00:11:06,650 S4: order of 6.5%, which is their second best outing. And she, 194 00:11:06,690 --> 00:11:09,570 S4: of course, entered the parliament in 2016 and then was 195 00:11:09,570 --> 00:11:11,770 S4: re-elected in 2022, in the Senate. 196 00:11:11,809 --> 00:11:14,209 S1: Incredible. And you mentioned just there that, you know, with 197 00:11:14,210 --> 00:11:16,810 S1: Pauline Hanson, she hasn't been flip flopping, but has her 198 00:11:16,809 --> 00:11:20,370 S1: focus on immigration and race changed or softened at all, 199 00:11:20,370 --> 00:11:23,930 S1: or is she just as strident and really extreme as 200 00:11:23,929 --> 00:11:24,770 S1: she's always been? 201 00:11:25,530 --> 00:11:29,689 S4: She's gone heavier on the Muslims, um, on being anti-Muslim, 202 00:11:29,690 --> 00:11:33,410 S4: as evidenced by the burka stunt that she's done twice now. 203 00:11:36,770 --> 00:11:43,090 S4: It's still the same menu of grievances. Yeah, it hasn't changed. 204 00:11:47,650 --> 00:11:52,810 S1: We'll be back in a minute. Well, this is really 205 00:11:52,809 --> 00:11:54,370 S1: what I wanted to ask you. I wanted to talk 206 00:11:54,370 --> 00:11:55,890 S1: a bit about, I guess, what are the sort of 207 00:11:55,929 --> 00:11:59,209 S1: cultural factors that have been happening that perhaps, you know, 208 00:11:59,250 --> 00:12:01,329 S1: were a part of her rise then we've spoken about that. 209 00:12:01,330 --> 00:12:03,569 S1: And then now, because we know back in the 90s, 210 00:12:03,809 --> 00:12:06,890 S1: indigenous rights were hotly being debated. You know, the prime 211 00:12:06,890 --> 00:12:09,170 S1: minister at the time, John Howard, was refusing to issue 212 00:12:09,170 --> 00:12:12,290 S1: an apology to the Stolen Generation. That was massive. There was, 213 00:12:12,290 --> 00:12:15,250 S1: of course, a lot of discussion about native Title, but 214 00:12:15,250 --> 00:12:17,410 S1: just bringing it forward to now, does the rise that 215 00:12:17,410 --> 00:12:20,290 S1: we're seeing in support for One Nation reflect a surge 216 00:12:20,530 --> 00:12:23,970 S1: in racism in Australia, or is it more that issues 217 00:12:23,970 --> 00:12:26,650 S1: have arisen, you know, that expose what was already there? 218 00:12:28,330 --> 00:12:32,410 S4: I think at all times there there is a, um, 219 00:12:32,650 --> 00:12:36,650 S4: a hard cohort within the society, within the electorate who 220 00:12:36,650 --> 00:12:40,810 S4: will have the views that she has. It's a matter 221 00:12:40,809 --> 00:12:45,620 S4: of how much a politician or a political organization wants 222 00:12:45,620 --> 00:12:50,940 S4: to harness them and move them forward, uh, to, uh, 223 00:12:50,940 --> 00:12:54,620 S4: sort of attract and then solidify support. I do think 224 00:12:54,620 --> 00:12:59,100 S4: there are economic and social and practical circumstances that favor 225 00:13:00,059 --> 00:13:06,020 S4: simple solutions to complex problems, right? Um, we do have 226 00:13:06,020 --> 00:13:11,179 S4: a substantial intake of migrants or, you know, our migration 227 00:13:11,179 --> 00:13:19,100 S4: numbers are still relatively high. We have, uh, enormous segments 228 00:13:19,100 --> 00:13:24,740 S4: of the community who are priced out of home ownership. Uh, 229 00:13:24,780 --> 00:13:27,459 S4: there are in sort of the growing parts of our 230 00:13:27,460 --> 00:13:32,380 S4: major cities, all sorts of infrastructure pressures. And so the 231 00:13:32,380 --> 00:13:36,140 S4: easiest way of explaining that away is that too many 232 00:13:36,140 --> 00:13:40,300 S4: people are coming in. Uh, the problem in reality is 233 00:13:40,300 --> 00:13:44,500 S4: that if we were to just cut migration, Zero migration, 234 00:13:44,500 --> 00:13:48,140 S4: which is their basically their proposition. The economy would tank 235 00:13:48,140 --> 00:13:52,900 S4: because we we import growth. We import demand by bringing 236 00:13:52,900 --> 00:13:57,700 S4: those people in. That's really, I think one of the reasons, 237 00:13:57,740 --> 00:14:00,940 S4: aside from the sort of, uh, awful shambles that the 238 00:14:00,940 --> 00:14:05,380 S4: liberals are in, um, I think that actually is another 239 00:14:05,380 --> 00:14:08,660 S4: explanation for the rise in the polls, I think. I 240 00:14:08,660 --> 00:14:12,100 S4: think it's worth checking ourselves a little bit. Um, Samantha, 241 00:14:12,179 --> 00:14:15,579 S4: not just you and me, but all of us. These 242 00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:17,940 S4: are just poll numbers. You know, a poll is a 243 00:14:17,940 --> 00:14:21,980 S4: snapshot in time. And we tend sometimes because we get 244 00:14:21,980 --> 00:14:24,500 S4: used to polls and we read them, we sort of think, oh, 245 00:14:24,540 --> 00:14:27,500 S4: their vote is 18%, which is what it was in 246 00:14:27,500 --> 00:14:30,260 S4: the Red bridge or, you know, 12 in the, in 247 00:14:30,300 --> 00:14:35,820 S4: the poll. But that's just what people are suggesting in 248 00:14:35,820 --> 00:14:39,660 S4: the surveys, whether on Election Day they would do that. 249 00:14:39,980 --> 00:14:44,190 S4: It's a different thing. However, those numbers are very substantial 250 00:14:44,190 --> 00:14:48,390 S4: for what was very much a fringe party. Uh, so 251 00:14:48,670 --> 00:14:51,550 S4: it's definitely it's a real thing we're talking about. Yeah, 252 00:14:51,590 --> 00:14:52,670 S4: that's for sure. That's for. 253 00:14:52,670 --> 00:14:54,470 S1: Sure. It's it's an important point. I mean, we're not 254 00:14:54,470 --> 00:14:57,030 S1: having a federal election for years, so. Yes, like. 255 00:14:57,110 --> 00:14:57,830 S4: Thank heaven for that. 256 00:14:57,870 --> 00:14:59,950 S1: Yeah. That's right. We've been through enough. 257 00:15:00,190 --> 00:15:01,350 S4: Yeah, I think so. 258 00:15:02,030 --> 00:15:04,950 S1: And just a bit further on what we're seeing, you know, 259 00:15:04,990 --> 00:15:06,870 S1: on the streets of our cities, really, because we've had 260 00:15:06,870 --> 00:15:09,630 S1: these marches for Australia where I think we saw a 261 00:15:09,670 --> 00:15:13,750 S1: lot of real anti-Indian sentiment in in particular, of course, 262 00:15:13,750 --> 00:15:16,950 S1: we saw neo-Nazis gathering, uh, for protest on the steps 263 00:15:16,950 --> 00:15:20,190 S1: of parliament in both New South Wales and Victoria. And 264 00:15:20,230 --> 00:15:23,670 S1: like you say, we hear a lot of mainstream political debate, 265 00:15:23,710 --> 00:15:26,070 S1: you know, that links the housing crisis to the number 266 00:15:26,070 --> 00:15:30,390 S1: of immigrants here. So does this help one nation? 267 00:15:30,790 --> 00:15:35,070 S4: One nation believes so because the Canberra, uh, March for 268 00:15:35,070 --> 00:15:38,430 S4: Australia is the rubric under which these, um, these marches 269 00:15:38,430 --> 00:15:43,750 S4: and demonstrations were held. both Pauline Hanson and her fellow 270 00:15:43,750 --> 00:15:48,670 S4: Senator Malcolm Roberts spoke. So they have attached themselves to 271 00:15:48,710 --> 00:15:55,430 S4: these demonstrations. Uh, these marches. And, um, looks like they're 272 00:15:56,270 --> 00:15:59,109 S4: part of a movement, a larger movement. 273 00:15:59,670 --> 00:16:02,550 S1: Yeah. I mean, it's it's definitely an astonishing moment. And 274 00:16:02,550 --> 00:16:04,470 S1: you have to wonder, you know, is the environment in 275 00:16:04,470 --> 00:16:07,510 S1: Australia right now ripe then, for One Nation's support just 276 00:16:07,510 --> 00:16:09,630 S1: to continue to increase. And like, what do you think 277 00:16:09,630 --> 00:16:12,550 S1: that means for our multicultural communities? Like do you have 278 00:16:12,550 --> 00:16:16,390 S1: any sense of wariness amongst some communities. You know, that 279 00:16:16,390 --> 00:16:19,150 S1: they're feeling sort of on notice that they might be targeted, 280 00:16:19,150 --> 00:16:19,670 S1: I guess. 281 00:16:19,910 --> 00:16:22,870 S4: Well, that seems to be the feedback from, uh, a 282 00:16:22,870 --> 00:16:26,150 S4: number of different groups and communities. But I think there's 283 00:16:26,150 --> 00:16:30,630 S4: also something else going on here, um, which is there's 284 00:16:30,630 --> 00:16:33,590 S4: a bit of a tussle between One Nation and elements 285 00:16:33,590 --> 00:16:38,030 S4: of the Liberal Party and the National Party to grab 286 00:16:38,030 --> 00:16:42,200 S4: that cohort of voters who feel that way about some 287 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:46,000 S4: of these issues. Um, and you can see it with 288 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,400 S4: some of the things, not so much the race thing 289 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:52,360 S4: with Andrew Hastie. I wouldn't suggest that, but a more populist, 290 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,360 S4: this idea of getting on the populist train, trying to 291 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,360 S4: get people who were disaffected with the way life is 292 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:04,760 S4: going in mid 2020s Australia and coming up with some 293 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,439 S4: good old fashioned solutions. You know that this is something 294 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:12,200 S4: that isn't just exclusive to one nation. I'll give you 295 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,560 S4: the example of what happened in the seat of Hunter 296 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,320 S4: back in this year's election. Uh, a labor seat in 297 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:23,600 S4: a coal area that ended up being after preferences were 298 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:28,920 S4: distributed that became a labor versus one nation seat. Now 299 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,720 S4: labor ended up with a almost a ten point margin. 300 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:35,680 S4: But all of these minor parties, the march of Patriots, 301 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:39,040 S4: or whatever they're called, the the family first. Palmer. Yeah. 302 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:39,600 S1: All parties. 303 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,320 S4: Yeah. They all. They all preferenced. And the National Party, too, 304 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:47,520 S4: are National party voters would have preferenced the One Nation 305 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:52,400 S4: candidate so that they were they were the opponent, the 306 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,239 S4: other likely winner of that seat. So this is how 307 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,040 S4: it sort of feeds in. So there's something larger going 308 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,920 S4: on on the non-Labor side of politics, I think. 309 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,199 S1: Well, John, this takes me to where I wanted to 310 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,480 S1: wrap up, which is that, you know, this is really broad. Arguably, 311 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,359 S1: this is really something that we're seeing in global politics. 312 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,680 S1: You know, the rise in populism. You see that with 313 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,959 S1: the Donald Trump presidency. And we see that with the 314 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,200 S1: rise in popularity of Nigel Farage and his right far 315 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:22,320 S1: right reform UK party. So what's happening there, do you think? 316 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,760 S1: Is this just a reflection of a broader global trend 317 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,600 S1: towards the right, this rise of one nation, or is 318 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:32,919 S1: what's happening globally perhaps influencing Australians to support a similar 319 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:33,640 S1: stance here? 320 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,930 S4: There are definitely I think sometimes we we tend to 321 00:18:38,890 --> 00:18:44,290 S4: undervalue the economic drivers of whatever change this is the 322 00:18:44,290 --> 00:18:47,409 S4: commonalities there. That was a that's been a big driver 323 00:18:47,410 --> 00:18:51,210 S4: for the Make America Great again. The whole Trump thing 324 00:18:51,410 --> 00:18:54,369 S4: was Rust Belt people in the Rust Belt or people 325 00:18:54,369 --> 00:19:00,170 S4: in the rural areas feeling completely closed off from prosperity 326 00:19:00,170 --> 00:19:02,690 S4: and a sense of hope. So there's some of that 327 00:19:02,690 --> 00:19:05,810 S4: going on in Australia, a little less, I think, because 328 00:19:05,850 --> 00:19:08,330 S4: and I know this is a very it's almost like 329 00:19:08,369 --> 00:19:09,890 S4: you almost need to put this on a business card 330 00:19:09,890 --> 00:19:12,090 S4: and just hand it out to everyone. It's it's becoming 331 00:19:12,090 --> 00:19:14,410 S4: a bit too predictable. But it needs to be said. 332 00:19:14,810 --> 00:19:19,370 S4: Our system of compulsory voting and preferential voting provides some 333 00:19:19,410 --> 00:19:25,730 S4: safeguards to this happening to a substantial extent at this 334 00:19:25,730 --> 00:19:30,210 S4: stage anyway, because there's a buy in that's built into 335 00:19:30,210 --> 00:19:34,490 S4: our system where people do actually have to engage and 336 00:19:34,650 --> 00:19:38,970 S4: to some degree willingly, in large proportion compared with those 337 00:19:38,970 --> 00:19:41,930 S4: other countries. So I think that's something that we've got 338 00:19:42,330 --> 00:19:44,890 S4: that might stave off what's going on there. I don't 339 00:19:44,890 --> 00:19:48,170 S4: think the I don't want to use the term pejorative 340 00:19:48,170 --> 00:19:50,609 S4: term contagion, but whatever you want to call it, that 341 00:19:50,609 --> 00:19:56,210 S4: trend might not necessarily find its way here. In some ways, 342 00:19:56,210 --> 00:19:57,770 S4: it's up to the Liberal Party to get its act 343 00:19:57,770 --> 00:20:02,650 S4: together and become a sort of mainstream party for a 344 00:20:02,650 --> 00:20:05,689 S4: larger cohort of people, and that that can stave it 345 00:20:05,690 --> 00:20:06,290 S4: off for two. 346 00:20:06,490 --> 00:20:08,210 S1: Which is a real if at the moment, isn't it? 347 00:20:08,690 --> 00:20:14,610 S4: But things can change. This time last year, not many 348 00:20:14,609 --> 00:20:17,610 S4: people in the Labor Party thought Labor Party could win 349 00:20:17,609 --> 00:20:20,850 S4: a majority of the seats in the lower house and 350 00:20:20,850 --> 00:20:25,210 S4: hold government that way. Five, six months later, they won 351 00:20:25,210 --> 00:20:29,409 S4: in a landslide. You know, things can change pretty quickly. 352 00:20:29,810 --> 00:20:34,210 S4: You know, it depends on performance, foresight and just having 353 00:20:34,300 --> 00:20:36,500 S4: the right energy, saying the right things at the right time. 354 00:20:36,500 --> 00:20:38,580 S4: So it's always interesting, isn't it? 355 00:20:38,619 --> 00:20:41,540 S1: Yeah. It is never a foregone conclusion, always an interesting 356 00:20:41,540 --> 00:20:44,660 S1: space to watch. So we're so lucky to have your insights. 357 00:20:44,660 --> 00:20:46,740 S1: Thank you so much for your time. 358 00:20:46,980 --> 00:20:48,540 S4: Thank you Samantha I appreciate it. 359 00:20:54,940 --> 00:20:58,740 S1: Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Tammy Mills. 360 00:20:58,980 --> 00:21:01,859 S1: Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to 361 00:21:01,859 --> 00:21:04,740 S1: our episodes as soon as they drop, follow the Morning 362 00:21:04,740 --> 00:21:08,699 S1: Edition on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 363 00:21:09,140 --> 00:21:13,619 S1: Our newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, so to support independent journalism, 364 00:21:13,619 --> 00:21:19,179 S1: visit the page or smh.com.au. Subscribe. And to stay up 365 00:21:19,180 --> 00:21:21,659 S1: to date, sign up to our Morning Edition newsletter to 366 00:21:21,700 --> 00:21:24,380 S1: receive a summary of the day's most important news in 367 00:21:24,380 --> 00:21:28,180 S1: your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes. 368 00:21:28,580 --> 00:21:31,660 S1: I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris, thanks for listening.