WEBVTT - Inside the Dutton camp: A leader’s downfall 

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<v S1>From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

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<v S1>This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Cylinder Morris. It's Tuesday,

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<v S1>May 6th. The knives have been out for Angus Taylor

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<v S1>for a while. Former opposition leader Peter Dutton was forced

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<v S1>to defend the shadow treasurer in June last year after

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<v S1>one of his own Liberal frontbenchers attacked him with accusations

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<v S1>that he was incompetent. And now, in the wake of

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<v S1>the coalition's election bloodbath, many of his colleagues are not

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<v S1>just lobbying their own accusations that Taylor is perhaps the

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<v S1>main reason they lost, but they're spilling the beans to

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<v S1>our reporters today. Foreign Affairs and national security correspondent Matthew

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<v S1>Nord and federal politics reporter Natassia Chrysanthos. Give us an

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<v S1>inside look at when coalition MPs realised that their campaign

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<v S1>had gone off the rails. Welcome to you both. Okay, Taz,

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<v S1>I'm going to start with you because I want you

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<v S1>to take us back to the start of the election campaign,

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<v S1>the end of March. You've written about what was happening

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<v S1>within Peter Dutton's camp. You know, now we know there

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<v S1>was a complete overconfidence there. But can you take us

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<v S1>inside the room, like what was going on back at

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<v S1>the start?

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<v S2>So if we go back to the final, final day

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<v S2>of Parliament, which was two days after the budget and

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<v S2>a day before the election was called.

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<v S3>The Prime Minister has. The Prime Minister has caused a

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<v S3>lot of pain to Australian families over the last three years?

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<v S3>Will the Prime Minister join with me in cutting the

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<v S3>price of petrol and diesel to save? You had this.

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<v S2>Very recent tightening in the polls. So I think you

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<v S2>started to see signs of confidence, I suppose, from both sides.

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<v S4>I wonder, I wonder if I wonder if when he

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<v S4>sat there, members on my when he sat there and

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<v S4>reintroduced in organization in 2014, I wonder.

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<v S2>I wonder what hadn't really happened at that point was

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<v S2>that kind of quite steady week by week decline in

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<v S2>the coalition standing? You know, as we as we wrote

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<v S2>in the piece, you had some coalition MPs saying we

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<v S2>can pick up 18 seats. Um, so feeling pretty good

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<v S2>about their chances.

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<v S1>Okay. And then even back in late January, Matt, there

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<v S1>was one prominent sign that perhaps some Liberal senators were

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<v S1>really feeling too cocky. So tell me about that.

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<v S5>Yes. Now, this is something that at some stage in opposition,

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<v S5>you would have to get around to if you thought

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<v S5>you had a chance of victory. But, uh, this is

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<v S5>being reflected on by several people in the coalition that

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<v S5>at the very first shadow Cabinet meeting of the year.

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<v S5>This was on the agenda was for the coalition frontbenchers

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<v S5>to do what are called statements of expectations. This is

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<v S5>what you would deliver to the public service if you win.

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<v S5>To set out your priorities. The fact this was being

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<v S5>discussed then is seen as a sign that expectations had

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<v S5>got completely out of control of victory. Coalition frontbenchers were

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<v S5>talking about the public service chiefs that they might want

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<v S5>to depose and appoint their own people. So it shows

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<v S5>that at this time, it feels like a long time ago.

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<v S5>At the start of the year, there was a very

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<v S5>different vibe that there was a feeling that they could win.

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<v S5>And yeah, there was a bit of hubris starting to

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<v S5>creep in.

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<v S1>And at this time, the coalition is soaring in the

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<v S1>polls and an insider told you that, you know, the

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<v S1>party room was getting reassurance that the policy work had

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<v S1>been done right. So they were going to have a

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<v S1>clear economic vision about what they'd be selling to their electorates, right?

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<v S2>Yeah. So MPs have said this is what they were

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<v S2>being told. And even in in the public commentary, um,

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<v S2>that was coming from the frontbench and opposition leader Peter

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<v S2>Dutton at the end of last year, um, with nuclear,

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<v S2>for example, it was like, oh, we've got the stuff

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<v S2>ready to go. We're just waiting for the right time.

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<v S2>They've done all these other things, for example, blocking student caps.

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<v S2>They were assuring everyone that we have our own student

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<v S2>cap policy ready to go. And every time the question

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<v S2>was when, when, when the kind of line you'd hear

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<v S2>from Dutton was, well, you know, why would we come

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<v S2>out with stuff when Labor's doing such a good job

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<v S2>of stuffing things up for themselves? We're just going to

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<v S2>let the wheels fall off labour and we'll come in

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<v S2>with our stuff when we need to.

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<v S5>And this was a big difference between the two campaigns,

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<v S5>the two sides of politics. Looking back to the start

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<v S5>of the year, the coalition began the start of the

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<v S5>year with their policy offering being a taxpayer subsidies for

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<v S5>business lunches, which is a really minor policy that actually

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<v S5>proved a very easy to ridicule and wasn't going at

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<v S5>the heart of voters worries about cost of living. Whereas

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<v S5>the Prime Minister and Labour, they kicked off the year

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<v S5>with a big focus on health and Medicare and getting

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<v S5>down what you paid to go to the doctor, it

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<v S5>was much more substantial. The coalition had a very threadbare

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<v S5>policy offering then, and it was clear at the time

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<v S5>that that wasn't very useful. And with hindsight now, you

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<v S5>can see that they were focusing on the wrong things.

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<v S1>And Matt and Taz, you you know, you've really given

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<v S1>us an inside look into when coalition MPs started to realise,

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<v S1>oh my God, the wheels are about to fall off here,

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<v S1>so take us inside that.

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<v S5>Well, no one expected the result to be as bad

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<v S5>as it was. Even in the few days before the election,

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<v S5>MPs who were very disappointed with what the coalition had

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<v S5>come up with were telling me they were thinking perhaps

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<v S5>they could get say into the mid 60s in the

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<v S5>number of seats. Now they're currently in the low 40s,

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<v S5>which is a huge difference. And that goes to the

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<v S5>terrible internal polling that the party was getting, which seems

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<v S5>to be even worse than the published polling that we

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<v S5>were producing in the media, which was pretty accurate. You

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<v S5>usually hear that the polling political parties get is way

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<v S5>more accurate, and if you could only see the special

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<v S5>magical polling we're seeing, you'd understand. And in fact, it

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<v S5>turned out to be even worse. But what we saw

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<v S5>was this policy making process got even worse throughout the campaign. Uh,

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<v S5>you know, and in the days leading up to it,

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<v S5>Dutton's big announcement on a domestic gas reservation policy. This

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<v S5>was only done in the couple of days leading up

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<v S5>to his big budget reply Speech.

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<v S3>And tonight I announce our national gas plan. This plan

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<v S3>will prioritise domestic gas supply, address shortfalls and reduce energy

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<v S3>prices for Australians. This is all about ensuring Australian gas

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<v S3>is for Australians.

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<v S5>The industry was very unhappy about it, very hard to

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<v S5>explain to voters they didn't have the modelling on how

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<v S5>this would bring anybody's energy prices down. So in the

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<v S5>early days of the campaign I was travelling with Peter

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<v S5>Dutton and this was what the press pack wanted to

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<v S5>know was what's the impact for voters? I don't think

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<v S5>it was even a tricky gotcha question. We were trying

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<v S5>to find out for our readers what the impact would be,

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<v S5>and they didn't have it. And Peter Dutton just kept saying, oh,

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<v S5>we've got it, we'll bring it to you. And it

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<v S5>seems that they didn't release it yet because they didn't

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<v S5>have it, and they were cooking it up to essentially

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<v S5>backfill the policy they'd already announced. We saw this with

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<v S5>the very expensive a one year a tax cut which

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<v S5>cost $10 billion for a single year of tax relief

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<v S5>that was being written in real time the day before

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<v S5>the speech, with the numbers being plugged in to the documents. Uh,

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<v S5>and that's not the way policy should be made. So

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<v S5>there's going to be a lot of questions to be

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<v S5>asked about why it was all so last minute.

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<v S2>To jump in there quickly with the two other examples

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<v S2>that to me, really stood out, were on immigration, was,

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<v S2>you know, that's one of the areas where the coalition

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<v S2>is seen as strongest amongst the public. They had a

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<v S2>really solid ground to make that attack against Labour, because

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<v S2>Labour did have, uh, immigration numbers blowing out year on year.

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<v S2>18 months earlier, the coalition had started putting out some

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<v S2>of its targets, um, or suggestions of where it wanted

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<v S2>migration figures to be. And come the week before the election,

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<v S2>they still had no detail about where those cuts were

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<v S2>going to come from. And they were they were talking

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<v S2>across each other and ruling one visa class out, but

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<v S2>then someone else would rule it in. Um, similar with

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<v S2>the public servants policy that had been floated, uh, back

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<v S2>in August last year. And again, come the costings, the

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<v S2>policy and numbers were changing week by week.

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<v S1>I'm also really curious about the exasperation that you've heard

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<v S1>from coalition MPs because they've they've told you some stunning things.

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<v S1>Tell us what they've told you about how exasperated they've been.

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<v S5>Uh, yes. Yes. MPs are absolutely exasperated. Uh, shadow ministers

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<v S5>are talking about they were doing work. They were submitting

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<v S5>a policy proposals that went into a void and were

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<v S5>never really seen again. I know that the defence policy

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<v S5>was being worked up and consulted on at least six

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<v S5>months ago, but only materialized with no detail in the

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<v S5>penultimate week of the campaign. We're starting to hear more

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<v S5>about the dysfunctional relationships between Peter Dutton and Susan Lay,

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<v S5>between Peter Dutton and Angus Taylor, between Peter Dutton and

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<v S5>Andrew Hastie. They weren't all on the same page. We're

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<v S5>hearing a lot about decision making being held within a

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<v S5>very small group in Peter Dutton's office that's been nicknamed

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<v S5>the FM crew to avoid using too crude language. So

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<v S5>this wasn't a broad cabinet style process of decision making,

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<v S5>and there's a lot of retribution about that, because this

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<v S5>isn't the way things are supposed to work.

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<v S2>And on that, I think one coalition MP put it

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<v S2>quite aptly in the piece, which is they said we

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<v S2>didn't do the work. We haven't had a serious small

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<v S2>business or industrial relations policy or tax policy or anything

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<v S2>on investment and cutting regulation. We cautiously trusted them at

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<v S2>the time, but it became obvious nearer to the campaign

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<v S2>that the work was not actually done, and that we

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<v S2>believed we could win the election without a proper economic agenda.

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<v S1>Will, this feeds into a question I was really, uh,

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<v S1>stuck with after I read your piece, which is why

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<v S1>did these insiders actually speak to you? I mean, was

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<v S1>it just anger over how badly things went? You know,

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<v S1>are they talking behind their colleagues backs because they're hoping

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<v S1>for change? Perhaps something else. Matt?

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<v S5>Uh, well, they've been living this for several years, and

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<v S5>people want to vent. People want to get things off

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<v S5>their chest. People have grievances about their colleagues. You know,

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<v S5>people want to point fingers at others. People want to

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<v S5>control their narrative. During the campaign itself, everyone's very determined

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<v S5>to stay on message and help the team. And knowing

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<v S5>that a piece like this, which is only going to

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<v S5>appear the day after and the result is known, people

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<v S5>are more comfortable to talk then, and we're seeing it.

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<v S5>We're going to see it in the days following the election.

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<v S5>People will be speaking out. So, uh, yeah, there's a

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<v S5>lot of reason why people want to get things off

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<v S5>their chest in the days after such a disastrous result.

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<v S1>Okay. And now we inevitably we've got to talk about

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<v S1>shadow treasurer Angus Taylor because, you know, the knives are

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<v S1>out for him. So what are members of the coalition

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<v S1>saying about him now? I mean, are they placing much

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<v S1>of the blame on him for this catastrophic loss?

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<v S5>Yes, this was a big thing that was coming up

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<v S5>in the days leading up to Election Day, when it

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<v S5>looked like the coalition wouldn't win. Uh, a lot of

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<v S5>feedback coming back that the main source of blame should

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<v S5>be the coalition's economic team, which simply didn't produce the

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<v S5>type of policies that you would expect they'd had three

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<v S5>years of opposition to develop policies, and what came out

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<v S5>was very threadbare and then done at the last minute.

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<v S5>Now there's a lot of back and forth about this.

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<v S5>We're seeing briefing from people close to the shadow treasurer,

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<v S5>Angus Taylor, who are talking about some of the great

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<v S5>ideas they think they had that never went anywhere. Clearly,

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<v S5>there was a dysfunctional relationship between him and Peter Dutton.

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<v S5>But throughout opposition, Angus Taylor has struggled to go up

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<v S5>against a Jim Chalmers, the treasurer. It's been a running

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<v S5>joke in labor about how few questions Angus Taylor asks

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<v S5>of Jim Chalmers in Question Time. We've seen Liberal Senator

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<v S5>Hollie Hughes out on Monday morning very critical of Angus Taylor,

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<v S5>saying she has concerns about his capability.

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<v S6>I think the fact that the economic narrative was just

0:13:44.190 --> 0:13:47.880
<v S6>completely non-existent, I'm not quite sure what he's been doing

0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:50.640
<v S6>for three years. There is no tax plan. I think

0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:52.800
<v S6>the economic team has significant something.

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.400
<v S5>You were hearing from her colleagues in the lead up

0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:57.880
<v S5>to polling day was just the economy is supposed to

0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:01.040
<v S5>be a strength for the coalition, but they felt they

0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:04.520
<v S5>had very little to sell there, particularly in a long

0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:08.600
<v S5>term sense beyond a few temporary one off measures that

0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:10.400
<v S5>were going to expire within a year.

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.640
<v S1>And do you reckon it's fair their criticisms of him,

0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:14.880
<v S1>or do you think that's just them, you know, trying

0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.960
<v S1>to shift the blame because, you know, obviously the recriminations

0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.440
<v S1>are savage now. So do you think this is just

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:24.520
<v S1>protecting their backs or do you think it's fair, especially

0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:26.880
<v S1>what Hollie Hughes says. She said that, you know, they

0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:31.320
<v S1>had a complete lack of policy and economic narrative and that,

0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.000
<v S1>you know, she says, I don't know what he's been

0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:35.720
<v S1>doing for three years. Is that fair? That really he

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:37.000
<v S1>just hasn't done much?

0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.240
<v S5>It's certainly fair. Based on the results. Now, Angus Taylor

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.040
<v S5>and people close to him will tell you that work

0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:47.200
<v S5>was being done. It didn't all get through the leader's office.

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:51.760
<v S5>You know, there are conflicting accounts here, but whatever the case,

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:54.320
<v S5>you only need to look at the results, that it

0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:58.000
<v S5>wasn't effective. There wasn't good economic policy, and he was

0:14:58.000 --> 0:14:59.800
<v S5>the shadow treasurer. And he has to bear a big

0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:01.160
<v S5>responsibility for that.

0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:04.640
<v S2>I think as well, since so much of the criticism

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:08.520
<v S2>that had come from Taylor was around tax and Australians

0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:11.040
<v S2>are paying too much income tax. So I think one

0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:13.440
<v S2>could expect and a voter could expect, given that he's

0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:16.680
<v S2>identified this big problem, well, you'd expect some kind of

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:18.480
<v S2>solution to that. And what we saw at the end

0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.560
<v S2>of the day was the coalition coming in to raise

0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:26.560
<v S2>income taxes, um, by repealing Labor's recent tax cut, which was,

0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.320
<v S2>as many people have pointed out, a very absurd position

0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.160
<v S2>for them to be in and probably really hurt their

0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.640
<v S2>credibility on that issue going into the election.

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.720
<v S5>Well, yeah, it was absolutely bizarre. It was bizarre as

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.880
<v S5>it was happening that the Labor Party came out on

0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:45.520
<v S5>budget night with pretty modest tax cuts and what everyone

0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:48.800
<v S5>in the press gallery expected was. Of course, the coalition

0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:53.080
<v S5>would match them and maybe try and outdo them. But no,

0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:57.040
<v S5>that wasn't the decision. So Jim Chalmers has said that

0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.120
<v S5>he couldn't believe they gave them such a political gift. And,

0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.080
<v S5>you know, this will be a key source of the

0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:05.280
<v S5>retribution within the party. And as he was saying, what

0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:08.760
<v S5>a gift it was. I was thinking of his political hero,

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:11.280
<v S5>Paul Keating, who used the phrase getting hit in the

0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:14.080
<v S5>arse by a rainbow. And that's really what labor was

0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:17.360
<v S5>with decisions like this from the coalition to go to

0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:20.520
<v S5>an election promising to raise income tax.

0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:22.600
<v S1>I love that so much. I mean, it's commentary like that.

0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.240
<v S1>This is why we love politics. But but just to

0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:27.720
<v S1>wrap up on Angus Taylor, you know, was he once

0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:30.560
<v S1>considered a forerunner to lead the liberals after Dutton? And

0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:32.960
<v S1>if so, what are his prospects now?

0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:37.440
<v S5>Well, he's still very much one of the leadership contenders.

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.440
<v S5>What everyone within the Liberal Party is saying is we

0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:42.720
<v S5>don't have a lot of great choices. They're not very

0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:48.520
<v S5>enthused about any of the candidates. So Angus Taylor has

0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:51.960
<v S5>a support base. You know, he's he's a factional player.

0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:55.440
<v S5>He has numbers within the party. He's been working on

0:16:55.480 --> 0:17:01.480
<v S5>that throughout opposition. Uh, Sussan Ley clearly was a bit

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:06.119
<v S5>disconnected from Peter Dutton, as she would present probably a

0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:09.399
<v S5>more moderate face than some of the others. The Liberal

0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.000
<v S5>Party is struggling with women. She would be a good

0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:15.520
<v S5>choice there. You couldn't say. She did a lot during

0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:19.240
<v S5>the campaign. And then Dan Tehan, when Taz was talking

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:22.280
<v S5>before about the immigration policy, he had a battle to

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:24.680
<v S5>hold on to his seat and he did win, but

0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:29.840
<v S5>he did absolutely no national media during the campaign, which

0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:31.880
<v S5>he could have still done while campaigning for a seat

0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:34.719
<v S5>to talk about immigration, which was supposed to be a

0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:39.040
<v S5>strength for the coalition. So no one within the party

0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:42.240
<v S5>is very excited about any of the candidates, and it's

0:17:42.330 --> 0:17:44.970
<v S5>being seen as it's a job, perhaps for someone to

0:17:45.010 --> 0:17:47.290
<v S5>do for a few years while they rebuild, and then

0:17:47.290 --> 0:17:50.730
<v S5>they can think again about who an actual alternative prime

0:17:50.730 --> 0:17:51.690
<v S5>minister would be.

0:17:52.490 --> 0:17:55.129
<v S1>Okay, well, definitely a space to watch. So thank you

0:17:55.130 --> 0:17:57.890
<v S1>so much, Natasha and Matt, for your time.

0:17:58.210 --> 0:17:58.730
<v S5>Thank you.

0:17:58.770 --> 0:17:59.450
<v S7>Thank you.

0:18:02.770 --> 0:18:06.530
<v S1>Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Tammy Mills,

0:18:06.650 --> 0:18:10.570
<v S1>with technical assistance by Josh towers. Tom McKendrick is our

0:18:10.570 --> 0:18:13.570
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0:18:37.250 --> 0:18:40.850
<v S1>Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris.

0:18:41.010 --> 0:18:42.210
<v S1>Thanks for listening.