1 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:10,840 S1: We are in a dangerous new nuclear age, according to 2 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,040 S1: a growing number of world leaders. The signs aren't just 3 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,640 S1: in Russia's threats to use its nuclear arsenal, or China's 4 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:21,680 S1: steady buildup of its number of nuclear weapons. The signs 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:24,479 S1: are also plain to see in one sentence that was 6 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:28,920 S1: somewhat buried in an otherwise dull strategic document released last 7 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:33,120 S1: month by the Trump administration. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and 8 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,960 S1: you're listening to Morning Edition from The Age and the 9 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:40,920 S1: Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher 10 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:45,400 S1: on Donald Trump's nuclear ambitions and why Australia must begin 11 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:56,320 S1: thinking about acquiring its own nuclear weapons. It's February 19th. Hey, Peter. 12 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:57,240 S2: Hi, Samantha. 13 00:00:57,840 --> 00:00:59,950 S1: Okay, first off, I've just got to ask you, is 14 00:00:59,950 --> 00:01:03,190 S1: your phone blowing up? Metaphorically, of course. Are you getting 15 00:01:03,230 --> 00:01:06,710 S1: techy messages from, say, our Prime Minister or Penny Wong? 16 00:01:07,390 --> 00:01:09,830 S1: As a result of arguing in your latest column that 17 00:01:09,830 --> 00:01:14,150 S1: they need to seriously discuss the acquisition of nuclear weapons, 18 00:01:14,150 --> 00:01:16,910 S1: because I'm thinking this would be a tough sell for them, right? 19 00:01:16,950 --> 00:01:19,630 S1: To the public. It's not long ago that the coalition 20 00:01:19,950 --> 00:01:23,429 S1: suffered a catastrophic wipeout, in part because they, of course, 21 00:01:23,430 --> 00:01:26,390 S1: were arguing for nuclear power, let alone weapons. 22 00:01:26,390 --> 00:01:33,430 S2: So nuclear weapons are a subject that nobody in Australia 23 00:01:33,470 --> 00:01:36,550 S2: ever really wants to talk about. And we've sheltered under 24 00:01:36,550 --> 00:01:41,149 S2: the American nuclear umbrella since the 1960s, so we've not 25 00:01:41,150 --> 00:01:43,830 S2: had the problem of having to think about it. But 26 00:01:43,830 --> 00:01:48,150 S2: now the times have changed, and responsible leaders everywhere are 27 00:01:48,190 --> 00:01:52,350 S2: talking about it, thinking about it. Chances are, Albanese, Penny 28 00:01:52,390 --> 00:01:54,830 S2: Wong will do their very best to run away from 29 00:01:54,830 --> 00:01:58,430 S2: the subject. Nobody wants to hear about it. And let's 30 00:01:58,470 --> 00:02:01,950 S2: acknowledge at the outset we are entering the realm of 31 00:02:01,950 --> 00:02:08,990 S2: the unthinkable and the shocking, because that's what nuclear weapons are. 32 00:02:09,110 --> 00:02:11,110 S1: Well that's it. I mean, we've certainly seen a lot 33 00:02:11,110 --> 00:02:12,989 S1: of commentary about this. I think The New York Times 34 00:02:12,990 --> 00:02:16,550 S1: said we're entering a new nuclear age. So let's launch in. 35 00:02:16,550 --> 00:02:19,230 S1: Why do you argue that Australia does need to seriously 36 00:02:19,230 --> 00:02:21,590 S1: consider the acquisition of nuclear weapons? 37 00:02:21,630 --> 00:02:23,950 S2: Well, there's a couple of factors. One is the level 38 00:02:23,950 --> 00:02:28,710 S2: of risk has gone up. So that's primarily China, which 39 00:02:29,150 --> 00:02:34,470 S2: has launched a breakneck speed of armament with nuclear weapons 40 00:02:34,470 --> 00:02:39,510 S2: in a way they never have. They're building deploying hundreds more. 41 00:02:40,150 --> 00:02:44,030 S2: But the level of reassurance has gone way, way down. 42 00:02:44,150 --> 00:02:49,549 S2: Two things have happened. One is that the US nuclear umbrella, 43 00:02:49,950 --> 00:02:54,669 S2: which notionally at least sheltered all US allies around the world, 44 00:02:55,590 --> 00:02:59,060 S2: is no longer. Nobody looks at Trump and thinks this 45 00:02:59,060 --> 00:03:00,820 S2: is a man who will protect our country, even if 46 00:03:00,820 --> 00:03:03,220 S2: it puts his own country at risk of nuclear attack. 47 00:03:03,220 --> 00:03:06,660 S2: Because that's the essential equation at the basis of the 48 00:03:06,660 --> 00:03:11,820 S2: whole concept of an American nuclear umbrella, or extended deterrence, 49 00:03:11,820 --> 00:03:15,620 S2: as they call it, and one after another, countries, US allies, 50 00:03:15,620 --> 00:03:18,580 S2: other US allies are realizing this and even talking about 51 00:03:18,580 --> 00:03:23,100 S2: it openly. Last week, the Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Mertz, 52 00:03:23,500 --> 00:03:27,660 S2: approached the French leader, Emmanuel Macron, to ask whether Germany, 53 00:03:27,700 --> 00:03:30,500 S2: now that Germany no longer has any confidence in the US, 54 00:03:30,980 --> 00:03:33,380 S2: could perhaps shelter under the French nuclear umbrella because the 55 00:03:33,380 --> 00:03:36,300 S2: French have never trusted the US and have always maintained 56 00:03:36,300 --> 00:03:39,980 S2: their own nuclear capability, as have the Brits. But other 57 00:03:39,980 --> 00:03:46,660 S2: countries also are now considering developing their own nuclear weapons programs. Shockingly, 58 00:03:46,660 --> 00:03:50,660 S2: this includes not just Germany, which has been, you know, 59 00:03:51,140 --> 00:03:54,460 S2: very much, shall we say, a penitent power ever since 60 00:03:54,460 --> 00:03:58,210 S2: World War two, but most shockingly, Japan. The Japanese are 61 00:03:58,210 --> 00:04:02,050 S2: now having a debate, as are the South Koreans, the poles, 62 00:04:02,810 --> 00:04:06,970 S2: even the Swedes are now debating whether they need to 63 00:04:07,010 --> 00:04:12,250 S2: acquire nuclear weapons for their own needs. So they're the 64 00:04:12,250 --> 00:04:16,330 S2: reasons that this what had been set fixed in place 65 00:04:16,330 --> 00:04:19,170 S2: for many years is now fluid. Another factor that's just 66 00:04:19,170 --> 00:04:22,930 S2: happened this month, which is that the last Start treaty, 67 00:04:22,930 --> 00:04:28,730 S2: which was a treaty between the US and Russia, restraining 68 00:04:28,770 --> 00:04:31,049 S2: the two of them in the number of nuclear weapons 69 00:04:31,050 --> 00:04:36,010 S2: that they would build, hold, deploy expired. There's no longer 70 00:04:36,010 --> 00:04:40,610 S2: any treaty restraining the Russians and the Americans in their 71 00:04:40,610 --> 00:04:44,530 S2: nuclear deployments. And Trump has talked about resuming nuclear testing. 72 00:04:45,089 --> 00:04:47,770 S2: So everything is suddenly very fluid. 73 00:04:48,089 --> 00:04:50,010 S1: Okay. Well, this is what I wanted to ask you. First, 74 00:04:50,370 --> 00:04:54,170 S1: let's just start off with the expiration of that last 75 00:04:54,210 --> 00:04:58,050 S1: remaining nuclear arms limitation treaty between the US and Russia. 76 00:04:58,370 --> 00:05:00,890 S1: Like you say, it's just expired, I think two weeks ago. 77 00:05:01,370 --> 00:05:03,530 S1: What might be the impact of that? 78 00:05:03,610 --> 00:05:08,570 S2: Um, well, Trump's logic and there is a logical basis 79 00:05:08,570 --> 00:05:13,730 S2: for it. It's not just because he's, you know, insane or, um, wanton. 80 00:05:14,450 --> 00:05:18,450 S2: The logic was that why should we renegotiate a treaty 81 00:05:18,450 --> 00:05:20,810 S2: with Russia for the two of us to restrain our 82 00:05:20,810 --> 00:05:25,850 S2: nuclear ambitions and abilities when China is refusing to negotiate? 83 00:05:25,850 --> 00:05:30,010 S2: Because Beijing's position on this, Samantha, has been consistent? They 84 00:05:30,050 --> 00:05:34,210 S2: never disclose their activities. They never disclose their ambitions. They've 85 00:05:34,210 --> 00:05:37,529 S2: never given an explanation for why the sudden surge in 86 00:05:37,570 --> 00:05:41,570 S2: their nuclear capability. They were at around 300 or so 87 00:05:41,610 --> 00:05:46,370 S2: nuclear warheads, nuclear missiles, until just a couple of years ago. 88 00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:49,250 S2: They're now thought to be around the 5 to 600 mark. 89 00:05:49,250 --> 00:05:51,450 S2: And the Pentagon assesses, and so does the Federation of 90 00:05:51,450 --> 00:05:56,080 S2: American Scientists, which is an anti nuclear body, assessed that 91 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:59,479 S2: the Chinese are probably going to have around 1000 nuclear 92 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,960 S2: weapons within the next four years. And the Chinese have 93 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,920 S2: never explained, certainly not prepared to negotiate. So Trump has said, well, 94 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,240 S2: why should we have our hands tied when the Chinese aren't? 95 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,800 S2: So there is a logic to it, but unfortunately, it 96 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:19,520 S2: also means that this is now giving Russia and the 97 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,400 S2: US the ability, the freedom. If you like, to get 98 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:27,400 S2: a little bit more adventurous and the resumption of nuclear testing, 99 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:29,800 S2: Trump has said, will do it, Russians are going to 100 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:33,160 S2: do it. It's all become a very bit a bit loose, 101 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,520 S2: and anything that's loose about nuclear weapons policy is something 102 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,640 S2: that nobody ever sleeps well about. 103 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,520 S1: No, it's scary. And I know that America hasn't done 104 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,599 S1: any nuclear tests since 92, and that was as a 105 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,520 S1: result of a congressional mandate. And at the time, I 106 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,229 S1: believe there was concerns about nuclear fallout on human health 107 00:06:52,230 --> 00:06:54,710 S1: and the environment, and also that it risked sort of 108 00:06:54,790 --> 00:06:58,310 S1: ramping up the tensions between Russia and the US and 109 00:06:58,310 --> 00:07:02,150 S1: the possibility of miscalculation and even war. So we know 110 00:07:02,150 --> 00:07:05,469 S1: that Trump has been threatening that, you know, the US 111 00:07:05,470 --> 00:07:08,310 S1: needs to start up nuclear tests again. So does that 112 00:07:08,310 --> 00:07:11,150 S1: risk putting the world back into this spiral of increasing 113 00:07:11,190 --> 00:07:12,190 S1: tensions and. 114 00:07:12,230 --> 00:07:15,670 S2: Not necessarily okay? It could, depending on how they do it. 115 00:07:15,710 --> 00:07:18,790 S2: But the other thing is, um, it's unnecessary. The US 116 00:07:18,790 --> 00:07:23,350 S2: has far more testing experience and data than any other country. 117 00:07:23,350 --> 00:07:26,990 S2: More than 1000 tests, a thousand. The Chinese are thought 118 00:07:26,990 --> 00:07:30,150 S2: to have conducted something like 50. They've been accused of 119 00:07:30,150 --> 00:07:35,670 S2: conducting recent ones that they've masked with clever stratagems. But 120 00:07:35,830 --> 00:07:38,110 S2: the essence of this is that the US has far 121 00:07:38,110 --> 00:07:41,870 S2: more information. Any changes in its technology it can model 122 00:07:41,870 --> 00:07:45,270 S2: without having to actually physically test. It suits Russia. Vladimir 123 00:07:45,270 --> 00:07:47,910 S2: Putin he doesn't care about his citizens or civilians. He 124 00:07:47,910 --> 00:07:52,270 S2: does care about his nuclear arsenal. Why Russia has become 125 00:07:52,270 --> 00:07:56,110 S2: since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a very limited power. 126 00:07:56,150 --> 00:07:58,310 S2: It's no longer a superpower. It hasn't been a superpower 127 00:07:58,310 --> 00:08:01,750 S2: for decades. What gives it its heft in the world 128 00:08:01,750 --> 00:08:04,990 S2: is its military. And the ultimate capability there is its 129 00:08:04,990 --> 00:08:08,190 S2: nuclear capability. So he's happy to get into it. The 130 00:08:08,190 --> 00:08:10,670 S2: Chinese are getting into it. The Americans don't need to. 131 00:08:10,710 --> 00:08:14,190 S2: And yet Trump is signaling that he is prepared to. 132 00:08:14,230 --> 00:08:17,550 S1: Right. Okay. Because ostensibly these nuclear tests are just to 133 00:08:17,590 --> 00:08:20,390 S1: test that they're still functioning. Right? And that everything's A-okay. 134 00:08:20,430 --> 00:08:21,870 S1: That's what they're there for, right? 135 00:08:21,910 --> 00:08:25,870 S2: And to assist in the development of more capable bombs. 136 00:08:26,190 --> 00:08:27,670 S2: More destructive weapons. 137 00:08:30,590 --> 00:08:31,550 S1: After the break. 138 00:08:31,950 --> 00:08:36,270 S2: For American allies around the world. Country after country is 139 00:08:36,429 --> 00:08:40,750 S2: starting to think, well, we can't trust the Americans any longer. 140 00:08:40,990 --> 00:08:42,910 S2: How do we respond if we can no longer trust 141 00:08:42,910 --> 00:08:43,510 S2: the shield? 142 00:08:52,540 --> 00:08:54,179 S1: Well, I wanted to ask you then about something that 143 00:08:54,179 --> 00:08:56,300 S1: The New York Times just printed just three days ago 144 00:08:56,300 --> 00:09:00,700 S1: because they published an editorial headlined Trump Risks Igniting a 145 00:09:00,700 --> 00:09:04,179 S1: Nuclear Wildfire. And it was arguing that with the expiration 146 00:09:04,179 --> 00:09:08,260 S1: of that treaty limiting the tests between US and Russia, 147 00:09:08,380 --> 00:09:12,900 S1: and with Trump's vague threats and what they've called dangerous brinkmanship, 148 00:09:13,100 --> 00:09:16,179 S1: they say that this pretends an unconstrained arms race not 149 00:09:16,179 --> 00:09:18,540 S1: seen since the height of the Cold War. So is 150 00:09:18,540 --> 00:09:22,020 S1: that alarmist, or is is there some legitimate concern there? 151 00:09:22,620 --> 00:09:25,819 S2: Well, will we see another arms race? The arms race 152 00:09:25,820 --> 00:09:29,020 S2: is already underway. It's just that the Chinese are catching 153 00:09:29,020 --> 00:09:32,940 S2: up with the other two, with Moscow and Washington. So 154 00:09:32,980 --> 00:09:35,220 S2: I think what the New York Times is talking about 155 00:09:35,220 --> 00:09:38,260 S2: is really already underway, and the Americans are helpless to 156 00:09:38,300 --> 00:09:42,339 S2: prevent it. Wow. The question is not can that be stopped? 157 00:09:42,340 --> 00:09:45,300 S2: The question is, how do we deal with it? Well, 158 00:09:46,020 --> 00:09:50,450 S2: for American allies around the world. Country after country is 159 00:09:50,690 --> 00:09:55,210 S2: starting to think, well, we can't trust the Americans any longer. 160 00:09:55,530 --> 00:09:58,810 S2: The risks are going up. Russia is more aggressive. Putin 161 00:09:58,809 --> 00:10:02,010 S2: has threatened to use at least tactical battlefield nuclear weapons 162 00:10:02,010 --> 00:10:05,010 S2: in the war against Ukraine. The Chinese are building up 163 00:10:05,010 --> 00:10:07,610 S2: at a breakneck pace. How do we respond if we 164 00:10:07,610 --> 00:10:10,210 S2: can no longer trust the shield? And can I read 165 00:10:10,210 --> 00:10:13,210 S2: to you some quotes from an interview that I did 166 00:10:13,210 --> 00:10:17,250 S2: with the head of defense policy in the Pentagon, Elbridge Colby, 167 00:10:18,010 --> 00:10:22,810 S2: when he made these comments? It was July 2024. So 168 00:10:22,809 --> 00:10:24,809 S2: he was in the mix to be a senior official 169 00:10:24,809 --> 00:10:27,530 S2: in the Trump administration. But Trump hadn't yet won power, 170 00:10:28,010 --> 00:10:31,810 S2: but he now is in power. Elbridge Colby is now 171 00:10:31,809 --> 00:10:34,370 S2: the undersecretary for defense policy. So he's the guy who 172 00:10:34,410 --> 00:10:38,010 S2: sets policy in the in the Pentagon for Trump. And 173 00:10:38,650 --> 00:10:42,130 S2: Colby told me in an interview when I asked him 174 00:10:42,130 --> 00:10:47,440 S2: about the nuclear shield Extended nuclear deterrence and how it 175 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,360 S2: might apply to Australia and other US allies, he said. 176 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,520 S2: It's obviously not going to happen. I don't think there's 177 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,880 S2: any way that the American president would actually risk losing 178 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:01,960 S2: like five American cities because of something that North Korea did. 179 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:06,600 S2: Because the stakes are too low for Americans, you know, 180 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:10,199 S2: and this is Colby still continuing. You know, there are 181 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:14,920 S2: no fallout shelters in Seattle. There are no civil defense drills, right? 182 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,040 S2: Colby continues. If we actually were preparing to potentially lose 183 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:22,559 S2: a city because of something, you would see that evidence. 184 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,760 S2: And so it's obviously not going to happen. 185 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:28,600 S1: That's that's I've got to say, that's the sentence in 186 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,360 S1: your piece that really stopped me in my tracks was 187 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,080 S1: that sort of very pragmatic. There are no fallout shelters 188 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,400 S1: in Seattle. And you kind of go, whoa, yeah, yeah. 189 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:40,040 S2: So when de Gaulle, the French leader, was discussing this 190 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,400 S2: with the Americans in the 1960s, the Americans wanted the French, 191 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,800 S2: all their allies to come under their umbrella, so-called because 192 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:50,280 S2: they wanted to monopolize the nuclear capability. They didn't want 193 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:53,480 S2: their allies running around with nuclear weapons, creating potential problems 194 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,480 S2: for them. The French refused, and this was the critical 195 00:11:56,480 --> 00:12:01,480 S2: and famous exchange between JFK and de Gaulle was where 196 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:05,360 S2: de Gaulle said, are you really prepared to trade New 197 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:09,720 S2: York for Paris? In other words, if there's if the 198 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:14,280 S2: Russians are about to launch a nuclear weapon against Paris, 199 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:17,920 S2: are you really about to launch a nuclear attack on 200 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:20,840 S2: the Russians to protect Paris, even if it means that 201 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,520 S2: the Russians then attack New York? And of course, the 202 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:28,920 S2: unspoken answer was, well, probably not. Now the spoken answer 203 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,800 S2: is from Elbridge Colby. Absolutely not. Now, you could ask 204 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:34,480 S2: the question. Well, that's what he said before he went 205 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:36,959 S2: into the Pentagon. And what's his view now that he's 206 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,040 S2: actually in the Pentagon? And the answer is that the 207 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:45,710 S2: national defense strategy that the administration published last month, carries 208 00:12:45,710 --> 00:12:49,830 S2: through without that blatant rejection of any concept that the 209 00:12:49,830 --> 00:12:53,390 S2: US would ever protect an ally from nuclear attack. But 210 00:12:53,429 --> 00:12:56,630 S2: it's there in the form that extended deterrence is not mentioned, 211 00:12:56,990 --> 00:12:59,950 S2: and it usually has been in the past. In defense 212 00:12:59,950 --> 00:13:03,710 S2: strategy documents published by the US. And the there's a 213 00:13:03,710 --> 00:13:08,270 S2: key line about allies are required to take primary responsibility 214 00:13:08,270 --> 00:13:11,070 S2: for their own defense. So we can read between the 215 00:13:11,070 --> 00:13:13,710 S2: lines that Colby has not changed his view. And he 216 00:13:13,750 --> 00:13:17,069 S2: is the principal author of the US National Defense Strategy. 217 00:13:17,110 --> 00:13:19,709 S1: In other words, Australia et al. Just chuff off. 218 00:13:20,150 --> 00:13:20,670 S2: Exactly. 219 00:13:20,710 --> 00:13:21,350 S1: Make your own way. 220 00:13:21,390 --> 00:13:24,189 S2: But it doesn't suit. You talked about Albanese, Penny Wong. 221 00:13:24,190 --> 00:13:26,710 S2: It doesn't suit any Australian politician to bring this up 222 00:13:26,950 --> 00:13:29,870 S2: because people are uneasy about it. They don't want to 223 00:13:29,870 --> 00:13:32,150 S2: talk about it. We'd rather just go about our daily 224 00:13:32,150 --> 00:13:34,550 S2: business and pretend it's not happening. 225 00:13:34,590 --> 00:13:36,310 S1: Okay, well, this brings me to my next question, because 226 00:13:36,309 --> 00:13:39,150 S1: you've already mentioned that, you know, among us NATO allies 227 00:13:39,150 --> 00:13:42,100 S1: that are now discussing you know, acquiring their own nukes. 228 00:13:42,260 --> 00:13:45,260 S1: There's Germany. There's Poland and Sweden. And shockingly, like you say, 229 00:13:45,300 --> 00:13:49,780 S1: even Japan hasn't ruled out these discussions, which is incredible. Uh, 230 00:13:49,820 --> 00:13:52,180 S1: given that, like you've written, they're the only nation ever 231 00:13:52,179 --> 00:13:55,780 S1: to endure nuclear attack. So tell me if I've got 232 00:13:55,780 --> 00:13:57,820 S1: it right from my reading of your piece. Like, are 233 00:13:57,820 --> 00:14:00,660 S1: we perhaps late to the realization that is us in 234 00:14:00,660 --> 00:14:03,380 S1: Australia that we need to discuss this, given that so 235 00:14:03,380 --> 00:14:06,380 S1: many other countries have already begun what you call the, quote, 236 00:14:06,420 --> 00:14:09,820 S1: long standing taboo and daring to speak the n word. 237 00:14:10,900 --> 00:14:14,140 S2: Well, we were early and we're also late. We were 238 00:14:14,140 --> 00:14:18,179 S2: early because in the 1960s, the Australian government had an 239 00:14:18,179 --> 00:14:21,580 S2: active debate about this. And the then prime minister, John Gorton, 240 00:14:21,580 --> 00:14:24,940 S2: in the late 60s decided Australia should have nuclear weapons. 241 00:14:25,420 --> 00:14:28,620 S2: He tried to organise buying them from the British, who 242 00:14:28,620 --> 00:14:31,940 S2: weren't interested in selling them. Uh, and the Americans. And 243 00:14:31,940 --> 00:14:35,700 S2: he decided that Australia did need its own capability, that 244 00:14:35,700 --> 00:14:38,820 S2: it would start building a nuclear reactor. And it did start. 245 00:14:38,820 --> 00:14:42,260 S2: The concrete footings are still there in Jarvis Bay on 246 00:14:42,260 --> 00:14:45,700 S2: the New South Wales coast. But when Gordon left power, 247 00:14:45,740 --> 00:14:49,060 S2: so did that idea and that ambition. And Australia then 248 00:14:49,300 --> 00:14:53,620 S2: very sort of smugly fitted in under the US umbrella 249 00:14:54,140 --> 00:14:58,100 S2: and then in this great act of, uh, of principled hypocrisy, 250 00:14:58,140 --> 00:15:00,660 S2: if I can call it that, Australia became one of 251 00:15:00,660 --> 00:15:04,180 S2: the leaders of the anti-nuclear movement around the world and 252 00:15:04,180 --> 00:15:07,739 S2: one of the leaders in promoting and signing and ratifying 253 00:15:08,180 --> 00:15:13,420 S2: the nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty. From the 90s until very recently. 254 00:15:13,780 --> 00:15:17,020 S2: And yet all this, all this while, uh, where, where 255 00:15:17,060 --> 00:15:21,340 S2: sheltering under the US extended deterrence umbrella. So we were 256 00:15:21,340 --> 00:15:25,700 S2: early but now because partly because of the nuclear Non-Proliferation 257 00:15:25,700 --> 00:15:28,500 S2: treaty that Australia has been a stalwart advocate for, and 258 00:15:28,500 --> 00:15:30,979 S2: partly because we just don't want to talk about this stuff. 259 00:15:31,020 --> 00:15:33,380 S2: Australia is late to it. What are we going to 260 00:15:33,380 --> 00:15:37,980 S2: do about it in some of the secret conversations within 261 00:15:37,980 --> 00:15:42,130 S2: the federal government in in departments. This subject is being 262 00:15:42,170 --> 00:15:45,850 S2: talked about, but you will never hear it in public. 263 00:15:46,130 --> 00:15:49,130 S1: Okay. Well, you've brought this into the public domain now. 264 00:15:49,130 --> 00:15:49,970 S1: And I guess just to. 265 00:15:50,010 --> 00:15:51,050 S2: Part of our part of our job. 266 00:15:51,090 --> 00:15:53,690 S1: It is definitely our job. And I guess, okay, so 267 00:15:53,730 --> 00:15:57,130 S1: you've walked us through the risks are growing. This is 268 00:15:57,130 --> 00:16:00,090 S1: a live question, but I have to ask you, especially 269 00:16:00,090 --> 00:16:03,690 S1: given what you've just said about, you know, our government's reluctance. 270 00:16:03,770 --> 00:16:05,130 S1: You know, they do not want to talk about this. 271 00:16:05,170 --> 00:16:08,330 S1: What is the chance that we will ever actually acquire 272 00:16:08,370 --> 00:16:09,450 S1: nuclear weapons? 273 00:16:09,610 --> 00:16:14,930 S2: Well, so an expert on these subjects, national security, Rory Medcalf, 274 00:16:14,930 --> 00:16:18,530 S2: who heads the National Security College at the Anu, he 275 00:16:18,570 --> 00:16:21,410 S2: said to me, well, the signal for Australia that we 276 00:16:21,450 --> 00:16:23,570 S2: are going to have to move on. This will be 277 00:16:23,610 --> 00:16:26,570 S2: when the other US allies in the region, Japan and 278 00:16:26,570 --> 00:16:29,570 S2: South Korea, develop their own, decide to develop their own 279 00:16:29,570 --> 00:16:33,690 S2: indigenous nuclear capability. When that happens, it'll be an undeniable 280 00:16:33,690 --> 00:16:37,760 S2: signal that nobody has any faith in the US umbrella 281 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,240 S2: any more, and we will have to start developing our 282 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,880 S2: own program. So he calls it a cascade of friendly 283 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:47,720 S2: proliferation is the signal that makes it irresistible and undeniable 284 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,480 S2: for us. But I add one other thought, Samantha, which 285 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:56,600 S2: is people generally assume that you need a nuclear weapon 286 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:01,800 S2: to protect against to deter nuclear war. That's true, of course, 287 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:07,000 S2: but it's also true that you need a nuclear capability. 288 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,240 S2: If you think that one day your military might have 289 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,919 S2: to fight against another country that does have a nuclear capability. 290 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:15,840 S2: It goes to the credibility of your of your force 291 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,160 S2: and your ability to escalate. In simple terms, let's say 292 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:22,480 S2: just for illustrative purposes, let's say one of these dangerous 293 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,240 S2: Chinese military intercepts of the Australian Air Force or Navy 294 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,879 S2: that have been increasing in the last few years turns 295 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:32,280 S2: into a bigger incident. Someone dies, it turns into a skirmish, 296 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:36,520 S2: a skirmish turns into a fight. What happens? Well, the 297 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:41,520 S2: Chinese can escalate to any level because ultimately they have 298 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,840 S2: the trump card of their own nuclear arsenal. Australia can 299 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:49,119 S2: never match that. So Australia must accept defeat. If we 300 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:53,600 S2: are engaged in military and military confrontation with the Chinese. 301 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,440 S2: We must accept defeat. We have to. We have to 302 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,199 S2: surrender and go to the negotiating table first. Unless the 303 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,480 S2: Americans step in, roll the dice, see what you think 304 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,680 S2: the chances are of the Americans stepping in to protect 305 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,520 S2: Australia against China or and or a Chinese nuclear capability. 306 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,320 S2: So what that tells you is that simply to conduct 307 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:17,159 S2: conventional military activity against a nuclear armed rival, your country 308 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,520 S2: needs its own nuclear capability simply to give you a 309 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:25,479 S2: conventional forces capability. So it's not necessarily anticipating a nuclear war, 310 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,679 S2: although it could be handy to deter a nuclear attack 311 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:32,040 S2: on your own country. Once we accept acknowledge that the 312 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:33,640 S2: US is no longer going to do that for us, 313 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:35,070 S2: if it ever really was. 314 00:18:35,109 --> 00:18:37,470 S1: But the fly in the ointment, if I can call 315 00:18:37,470 --> 00:18:40,470 S1: it that, is that this does become another nuclear war. 316 00:18:40,510 --> 00:18:42,550 S1: You know, like, you know, it's hard not to think 317 00:18:42,550 --> 00:18:46,070 S1: about Nagasaki, Hiroshima and think, oh my God, how are 318 00:18:46,070 --> 00:18:47,350 S1: we returning to this? 319 00:18:47,390 --> 00:18:52,470 S2: Absolutely. So, uh, it is unbelievable that humanity is in 320 00:18:52,510 --> 00:18:55,869 S2: this position and yet it's real. We can pull up 321 00:18:55,869 --> 00:18:57,590 S2: the doona and put our heads under the covers and 322 00:18:57,590 --> 00:19:01,510 S2: just pretend it's not happening. Or we can have responsible 323 00:19:01,510 --> 00:19:07,229 S2: conversations about it and talk about what our options might be. So, uh, 324 00:19:07,390 --> 00:19:10,510 S2: could there one day be a nuclear war? Of course. 325 00:19:10,550 --> 00:19:13,590 S2: It's been a constant risk ever since the first first 326 00:19:13,590 --> 00:19:17,670 S2: bombs were deployed in the 40s and 50s. What prevented 327 00:19:17,670 --> 00:19:21,230 S2: a nuclear war for all of these decades, especially during 328 00:19:21,230 --> 00:19:25,869 S2: the Cold War, was so-called mutually assured destruction mad, which 329 00:19:25,869 --> 00:19:27,949 S2: was when the US and the Russians were in a 330 00:19:27,950 --> 00:19:31,350 S2: stalemate and they realized nobody could afford to launch the 331 00:19:31,350 --> 00:19:33,899 S2: first nuke. And we are now moving into a more 332 00:19:33,900 --> 00:19:37,740 S2: complex iteration of that, instead of what had been described 333 00:19:37,740 --> 00:19:41,540 S2: as two scorpions in a bottle. The Soviets and the Americans, where, 334 00:19:41,740 --> 00:19:44,179 S2: you know, you could have you could try to attack 335 00:19:44,180 --> 00:19:46,420 S2: each other, but wouldn't end well for either of you. 336 00:19:46,980 --> 00:19:50,860 S2: You're going to have three and perhaps more. And so 337 00:19:51,180 --> 00:19:54,540 S2: countries are now thinking about what do we do. So 338 00:19:54,700 --> 00:19:56,580 S2: it's not a question of how do we avoid talking 339 00:19:56,580 --> 00:20:01,860 S2: about this. It's real. It's happening. It's the only responsible 340 00:20:01,859 --> 00:20:05,180 S2: thing for responsible leaders to do. Of course, everybody does 341 00:20:05,180 --> 00:20:07,940 S2: it in the hope that it will be a deterrent 342 00:20:08,180 --> 00:20:11,140 S2: and not a weapon ever deployed. Wow. 343 00:20:11,660 --> 00:20:14,300 S1: Well, thanks, Peter, as always, for your time. 344 00:20:14,340 --> 00:20:15,140 S2: Always a pleasure. 345 00:20:28,859 --> 00:20:32,300 S1: In other news, today, a new independent report compiled by 346 00:20:32,300 --> 00:20:36,260 S1: the E61 Institute has found federal and state budgets are 347 00:20:36,260 --> 00:20:40,820 S1: increasingly fragile due to extra government spending and demographic pressures 348 00:20:40,820 --> 00:20:45,859 S1: caused by the nation's ageing population. Billionaire hotelier Justin Hemmes 349 00:20:45,859 --> 00:20:49,780 S1: has splashed about $18 million on an original Byron Bay 350 00:20:49,820 --> 00:20:53,179 S1: beach shack, and in her first interview since taking the 351 00:20:53,180 --> 00:20:56,300 S1: reins at Netflix Australia and New Zealand as head of content, 352 00:20:56,580 --> 00:21:00,500 S1: Amanda Duffy unveils her vision for the streamer. Read these 353 00:21:00,500 --> 00:21:07,900 S1: headlines and more on smh.com.au and theage.com.au. Today's episode was 354 00:21:07,900 --> 00:21:11,820 S1: produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, 355 00:21:11,820 --> 00:21:15,740 S1: and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. 356 00:21:16,300 --> 00:21:19,060 S1: If you like our show, follow the Morning Edition and 357 00:21:19,060 --> 00:21:22,380 S1: leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks 358 00:21:22,380 --> 00:21:23,220 S1: for listening.