1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,000 S1: Hi, it's Samantha Selinger Morris here. And I'm the host 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:06,279 S1: of the Morning Edition. We're bringing you the best episodes 3 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:11,440 S1: of 2025 before your Morning Edition team returns mid January. Well, 4 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,440 S1: it was another big year for the human headline. That 5 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:18,640 S1: was US President Donald Trump, and political and international editor 6 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,880 S1: Peter Hartcher was an essential listen each week on our 7 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,200 S1: podcast as we tried to make sense of it all. 8 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:28,200 S1: This episode was recorded in May, just as Trump was 9 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,480 S1: poised to introduce what he called his big beautiful bill, 10 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,820 S1: which was predicted to tip government debt over the 1 11 00:00:34,820 --> 00:00:39,080 S1: trillion mark. What did it matter? Because these figures point 12 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:43,120 S1: to an empire in decline. Hartcher explores what it would 13 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:45,880 S1: mean if the United States ceased to be a great power, 14 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,560 S1: and what it would take to bring America back from 15 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:53,120 S1: the brink. Okay, so, Peter, let's start off with a bang. 16 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,240 S1: Why does it matter if America's status as a global 17 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,200 S1: superpower is waning? Like, what's the risk here? 18 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,840 S2: Well, the first step would be to make the point 19 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,040 S2: that almost everything we think is normal in the world 20 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:10,600 S2: is not normal. The stability and the prosperity that has 21 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:13,640 S2: dominated in the world for most of the post-war era 22 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:18,960 S2: post-World War II era is unusual, historically unusual. So the 23 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:23,800 S2: risk is that without a dominant hegemon that has both 24 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:27,679 S2: the power and the will to enforce stability and the 25 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,200 S2: systems that create that stability, you end up with an 26 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:35,680 S2: unstable world. Now, you might say, but we already have 27 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,640 S2: an unstable world. Uh, which is true, but the stability 28 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,720 S2: had always been contained. So, for example, and Trump is 29 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:47,760 S2: not the first American president to start wrecking the system 30 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:54,360 S2: that America itself created. American strategic credibility started to slide 31 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:59,920 S2: under Barack Obama. That was when he told the Syrian 32 00:01:59,920 --> 00:02:03,760 S2: president not to use chemical weapons against his people, and 33 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,280 S2: if he did, he'd come after him. Obama did nothing. 34 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:09,600 S2: All the other dictators in the world took note, and 35 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:14,920 S2: that's why. Shortly thereafter, Vladimir Putin invaded for the first time, 36 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:20,680 S2: Crimea and other parts of Ukraine. And then that's escalated 37 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,680 S2: because they could see the US had lost its will 38 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,280 S2: and its ability to do anything about it. Now that's accelerated. 39 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,560 S2: And you've seen the full scale war now that Putin 40 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,000 S2: is waging against Ukraine and threatens to wage against all 41 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:39,640 S2: of Europe. So without a dominant and able and willing 42 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,320 S2: American hegemon, that sort of thing, you could expect to 43 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:48,600 S2: break out more often, more and more widely across the world. 44 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:50,480 S1: That sounds bad, Peter. 45 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:52,640 S2: It is bad. I hate to break it to you, Samantha, 46 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,200 S2: but it's also the systems of prosperity. So here's a 47 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,520 S2: great example. Um, the World Trade Organization was set up 48 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:01,880 S2: by the US after World War II to create a 49 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,560 S2: uniform system of rules. Um, communist countries were shut out 50 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:10,720 S2: during the Cold War when 2000 hit. Bill Clinton said, look, 51 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,080 S2: that Cold War stuff is nonsense, I like China. Let's 52 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,520 S2: bring the Chinese into the system. And they did. The Americans, 53 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,160 S2: together with the other members of the WTO, admitted China. 54 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:25,160 S2: That was the take off point for the Chinese economy 55 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:31,760 S2: access to essentially free trade. Throughout that system, by admitting 56 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,119 S2: China allowed China to trade its way. The Chinese did 57 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,040 S2: the hard work, but it got access to a system 58 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,720 S2: it had been shut out of. And that turbocharged the 59 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,160 S2: Chinese economy. So there's another example of a system that 60 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,920 S2: that only the US was able to create and maintain. 61 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,720 S2: And now Trump of course, is vandalising it. 62 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,240 S1: Okay. Well, let's turn to recent events then, which, as 63 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,920 S1: you've written, show that Donald Trump is vandalising this, that 64 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,600 S1: America's superpower status is on the wane because a main 65 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,360 S1: part of it is based in economics. So explain this 66 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:01,920 S1: to us. 67 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,880 S2: Well, the essence of it is that quite apart from 68 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:09,880 S2: the trade madness and eroticism, which has unnerved markets and 69 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,320 S2: governments all around the world. We now come up to 70 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,000 S2: a different problem, which is that the Americans are borrowing 71 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:21,559 S2: so much money to finance their government deficits that world 72 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,680 S2: markets have come to the point where they're wondering if 73 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:28,400 S2: that debt will ever be repaid. And that's a big problem. 74 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,920 S2: It's a big problem, not just for the Americans, of course. 75 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,240 S2: If they're forced into a default, that would be nothing 76 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,240 S2: new in the world because dozens of countries have. But 77 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,960 S2: if you are the center of the global financial system 78 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,560 S2: and you default, then we all have a problem. The 79 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,040 S2: US Treasury bond is the risk free asset that the 80 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,840 S2: whole global financial system depends on and trades on. If 81 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:58,440 S2: that's under assault. Then you have a global market chaos 82 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:03,960 S2: with with unpredictable outcomes, but probably none of them very good. 83 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:07,560 S2: And that's the point where approaching right now with the 84 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:14,159 S2: combination of reckless borrowing by successive presidents, now fomented and 85 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:19,080 S2: accelerated by Trump. If he gets his new bill through 86 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:21,479 S2: the US Senate, as he's hoping to do. 87 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,320 S1: Okay, well, we're going to get into his so-called big, 88 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,599 S1: beautiful bill. I mean, only Trump could call it that, right? 89 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:28,880 S1: But anyway, we'll get into that in just a. 90 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:29,960 S2: Especially one that's so ugly. 91 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,640 S1: Yeah. That's right, that's right. But first you've written that 92 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,400 S1: Trump is also on the cusp of surrendering a really 93 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,640 S1: unique source of U.S. power, perhaps the single most. And 94 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,440 S1: that's America's full faith in credit. That is the ability 95 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,920 S1: to borrow cheaply, to spend lavishly, and to enjoy the 96 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,720 S1: exorbitant privilege of issuing the global reserve currency. Now, for 97 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,840 S1: those of us, like myself, who don't really know what 98 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,000 S1: the global reserve currency means, like, what is the significance 99 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:59,280 S1: of America losing that status as the default global reserve currency? 100 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:03,160 S2: Yeah, well, it's been really vital to the Americans because 101 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,360 S2: they can do any transaction they want in their own currency. 102 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,839 S2: So at the moment they've got a huge deficit, 7 103 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:14,200 S2: or 8% of GDP, which is just wildly out of 104 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:18,120 S2: kilter for its annual budget. And that's under threat of 105 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:22,520 S2: going up even further. And they can finance that readily 106 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,000 S2: because they can do it in their own currency. Um, 107 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:27,599 S2: you don't have the risk that they won't be able 108 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,520 S2: to raise the funds, that their currency will collapse, and 109 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,600 S2: they can't attract enough foreign investment to bulk it up. 110 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,400 S2: It's all done in their own currency. So it reduces 111 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,480 S2: a lot of the risk to them, but it also 112 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,200 S2: gives them the benefit that the whole world is transacting 113 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,480 S2: in their currencies, the entire commodities trade in the world, 114 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:48,480 S2: all of our iron ore and coal exports and all 115 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,400 S2: the rest of it goes in US dollars. It lubricates 116 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:55,760 S2: the whole system. So if that's gone, the world will 117 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,360 S2: suffer but can adjust. Okay. America would be the big victim. 118 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:01,840 S1: But why? What would happen to America if the, you know, 119 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,960 S1: the default currency was no longer the American dollar? 120 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:09,359 S2: They would have trouble funding their deficit. In fact, um, 121 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,880 S2: it would probably provoke. If they can't finance their existing 122 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:18,080 S2: levels of consumption, it would provoke, um, at the very least, 123 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:23,160 S2: a recession, but quite possibly a more disorderly and deeper 124 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:27,360 S2: economic disruption to that whole country. And the risk is 125 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,280 S2: that that would suck much of the world's economic and 126 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:36,720 S2: financial activity down with it. If we take a step 127 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:40,320 S2: back from all of this, Samantha, the really big significance 128 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,840 S2: of what we're talking about here is we are witnessing 129 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,680 S2: in the Daily News the implosion of an empire. We 130 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:53,480 S2: are witnessing the end of the American empire that has, uh, like, uh, 131 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,720 S2: like a colossus across the globe since since World War two. 132 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,200 S2: It's coming to an end. Donald Trump is accelerating it. 133 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,040 S2: And day by day by day, these developments we're talking 134 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:07,680 S2: about are all details in that larger pattern of decline. 135 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:12,040 S2: Like Mark Twain's death. It's often been the death of 136 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,920 S2: the American empire has been exaggerated. It's often been pronounced 137 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,679 S2: in the last 30 years, and it's never, never come about. 138 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,000 S2: But it's pretty hard to find anybody who will argue 139 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:22,120 S2: that now. 140 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:26,960 S1: We'll be right back. 141 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,040 S3: Hello to crime nuts and nuts. Just generally, we're back 142 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,920 S3: with series seven of Naked City. I'd like to say 143 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,840 S3: the delay was technical, but it's basically I'm bone lazy 144 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:43,200 S3: forced now to do it. It's pretty good. We talk 145 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:47,160 S3: about cold cases, hot cases and cases that were never solved. 146 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:55,160 S3: Notorious crooks. Brilliant detectives and baghouse reporters. Naked city out 147 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:58,080 S3: after the summer break. Enjoy your plum pudding. 148 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,319 S1: Okay, so you did mention the bill that might pass 149 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,600 S1: through Senate. It hasn't yet. So tell us about Trump's 150 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,559 S1: so-called big beautiful bill and why, if it does get 151 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:12,410 S1: passed by the Senate, this would be a case of 152 00:09:12,410 --> 00:09:15,530 S1: fiscal vandalism that is either contributing to what we're talking about, 153 00:09:15,530 --> 00:09:17,530 S1: or maybe even worsens it. I don't know, you tell me. 154 00:09:17,570 --> 00:09:21,090 S2: No it does. It would worsen it. So the domestic 155 00:09:21,090 --> 00:09:24,530 S2: politics of it are ugly enough, this big, ugly bill 156 00:09:25,570 --> 00:09:28,929 S2: and that is that the poor, the poorest, would have 157 00:09:28,929 --> 00:09:32,410 S2: about $1 trillion cut from their government entitlements over the 158 00:09:32,410 --> 00:09:37,010 S2: next ten years. They are principally food stamps. Food stamps 159 00:09:37,010 --> 00:09:39,530 S2: are for people who can't afford to buy food, obviously. 160 00:09:40,290 --> 00:09:43,170 S2: And the other is Medicaid, which is a program of 161 00:09:43,170 --> 00:09:48,089 S2: free health insurance to the poorest. About 80, 85 million 162 00:09:48,130 --> 00:09:52,490 S2: Americans and about 9 million of those would lose their 163 00:09:52,490 --> 00:09:56,890 S2: eligibility under this bill. And now, combined all of the 164 00:09:56,929 --> 00:10:00,930 S2: cuts to these very basic assistance programs to the poorest 165 00:10:00,929 --> 00:10:03,970 S2: of the poor would save the budget a trillion. And 166 00:10:04,370 --> 00:10:07,850 S2: then Trump is saying, and the House of reps that's 167 00:10:07,890 --> 00:10:10,450 S2: put this bill together has said, but we want to 168 00:10:10,450 --> 00:10:13,890 S2: spend 3 trillion on stuff for things that we actually 169 00:10:13,890 --> 00:10:15,810 S2: care about. So don't worry about the poor. Don't worry 170 00:10:15,809 --> 00:10:18,370 S2: about our fellow citizens. We want to spend this money 171 00:10:18,410 --> 00:10:22,130 S2: principally on extending the tax cuts that Trump put in 172 00:10:22,130 --> 00:10:25,570 S2: place in 2017 because they were about to expire, and 173 00:10:25,570 --> 00:10:30,250 S2: they are for people with high incomes and corporations. So 174 00:10:30,290 --> 00:10:33,449 S2: that's pretty ugly, that redistribution away from the poor and 175 00:10:33,450 --> 00:10:34,929 S2: in favor of the rich. And it might come as 176 00:10:34,929 --> 00:10:37,810 S2: a surprise to some of the people who voted for Trump, 177 00:10:37,850 --> 00:10:39,890 S2: the MAGA crowd who thought he was going to look 178 00:10:39,890 --> 00:10:41,089 S2: after the the little guy. 179 00:10:41,130 --> 00:10:43,570 S1: So it's like an anti Robin Hood scenario. It's exactly 180 00:10:43,570 --> 00:10:44,410 S1: what it sounds. Yeah. 181 00:10:44,450 --> 00:10:45,410 S2: It's the Sheriff of Nottingham. 182 00:10:45,450 --> 00:10:47,170 S1: Yeah it's the Sheriff of Nottingham okay. 183 00:10:47,210 --> 00:10:51,610 S2: And and uh that's so that's their country their problem. 184 00:10:51,610 --> 00:10:55,330 S2: It's it's bad. But you know, your problem where it 185 00:10:55,330 --> 00:10:58,490 S2: affects the rest of us is that it would add 186 00:10:58,809 --> 00:11:01,610 S2: somewhere between 3 and 4 trillion, depending on the shape 187 00:11:01,610 --> 00:11:08,170 S2: of the final bill dollars to the federal debt over 188 00:11:08,170 --> 00:11:11,810 S2: the next ten years. And investors have started saying, well, 189 00:11:12,210 --> 00:11:15,970 S2: we think you've already got too much debt 122% of GDP. 190 00:11:15,970 --> 00:11:17,929 S2: And you're going to do all this and look at 191 00:11:17,929 --> 00:11:21,050 S2: all these crazy erratic policies you're announcing all the time. Yeah. 192 00:11:21,850 --> 00:11:25,330 S2: You know, the American dollar. And there's been a sell 193 00:11:25,370 --> 00:11:28,449 S2: off of the US dollar and US bonds going on 194 00:11:28,650 --> 00:11:32,210 S2: at a, at a fair clip ever since, uh, so-called 195 00:11:32,210 --> 00:11:33,370 S2: Liberation Day, April 2nd. 196 00:11:33,410 --> 00:11:35,770 S1: Okay. What does that mean, a sell off of US bonds. 197 00:11:36,170 --> 00:11:40,290 S2: It means that investors. And it happens. You know, you 198 00:11:40,330 --> 00:11:44,050 S2: get bonds bought, uh, heavily one day and sold heavily 199 00:11:44,050 --> 00:11:47,890 S2: the next. The unusual factor is that you're getting bonds 200 00:11:47,890 --> 00:11:49,929 S2: sold off and the US dollar sold off at the 201 00:11:49,929 --> 00:11:52,170 S2: same time. This is this is a walking away from 202 00:11:52,170 --> 00:11:56,730 S2: America as an investment prospect that is unusual and usually 203 00:11:56,770 --> 00:11:58,250 S2: presages a crisis. 204 00:11:58,809 --> 00:12:02,410 S1: So tell us what historian Niall Ferguson has said about this, 205 00:12:02,410 --> 00:12:05,090 S1: because he has sort of rung the bell of alarm, 206 00:12:05,090 --> 00:12:05,809 S1: I guess. 207 00:12:05,850 --> 00:12:09,890 S2: Yeah. He published a paper in February proposing what he 208 00:12:09,890 --> 00:12:14,650 S2: calls Ferguson's law. And Ferguson's law states that if you 209 00:12:14,650 --> 00:12:20,130 S2: look back through history, an empire begins to decline when 210 00:12:20,130 --> 00:12:22,970 S2: it is spending more money servicing its debts than it 211 00:12:22,970 --> 00:12:27,450 S2: is spending on its military. And that last year, 2024, 212 00:12:27,690 --> 00:12:30,410 S2: the US crossed that line for the first time in 213 00:12:30,530 --> 00:12:36,650 S2: um century, almost a century. So, according to his logic, 214 00:12:36,650 --> 00:12:39,450 S2: and he goes back to the Habsburg Empire through to 215 00:12:39,490 --> 00:12:45,010 S2: the British Empire. Uh, he traces this pattern. You can't 216 00:12:45,010 --> 00:12:47,530 S2: an empire can cross that line and recover. But if 217 00:12:47,530 --> 00:12:50,570 S2: it stays beyond that line, spending more, just paying for 218 00:12:50,570 --> 00:12:53,810 S2: its debts than it does for its military. His thesis 219 00:12:53,850 --> 00:12:56,170 S2: is that an empire is finished. 220 00:12:56,370 --> 00:12:59,370 S1: And I believe he also said that it essentially leaves 221 00:12:59,370 --> 00:13:02,449 S1: the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge. 222 00:13:02,450 --> 00:13:04,809 S2: So, yes, and to internal fragility as well. 223 00:13:04,809 --> 00:13:07,250 S1: So essentially what we could see is America become a 224 00:13:07,250 --> 00:13:09,969 S1: target for enemies, really, for the first time in a 225 00:13:09,970 --> 00:13:11,890 S1: very long time. Like, is that the sort of pointy 226 00:13:11,890 --> 00:13:13,050 S1: end of what we're discussing? 227 00:13:13,290 --> 00:13:17,449 S2: Uh, yes. And you see it already in cyber attack. 228 00:13:17,490 --> 00:13:19,449 S2: You see it in the sort of gray zone warfare 229 00:13:19,690 --> 00:13:23,210 S2: of cyber attack, but also the cutting of undersea cables 230 00:13:23,210 --> 00:13:26,929 S2: that connect the internet around the world. And 95% of 231 00:13:26,929 --> 00:13:30,410 S2: communications around the world, Chinese and Russian proxies are doing 232 00:13:30,410 --> 00:13:34,490 S2: this week in and week out. You see it in 233 00:13:34,530 --> 00:13:40,290 S2: the attempts to not only conquer Ukraine, but to dismember NATO, 234 00:13:40,929 --> 00:13:45,809 S2: which is a US led, US based alliance. And you'll 235 00:13:45,809 --> 00:13:49,970 S2: see you see it in the Pacific, where Chinese friends 236 00:13:49,970 --> 00:13:54,530 S2: are busy trying to claim, well, are actually successfully claiming 237 00:13:54,530 --> 00:13:57,850 S2: maritime territories from the Philippines, which is a US treaty ally, 238 00:13:57,890 --> 00:14:01,490 S2: while the US does nothing. So you would see that 239 00:14:01,490 --> 00:14:05,490 S2: move from the fringes increasingly to the center because the 240 00:14:05,490 --> 00:14:08,689 S2: US has its has it still has a very powerful military. 241 00:14:08,929 --> 00:14:11,450 S2: It just doesn't seem any longer to have the willpower 242 00:14:11,450 --> 00:14:13,729 S2: or the judgment to use it well or wisely. 243 00:14:14,130 --> 00:14:16,290 S1: So are we seeing this play out with what happened 244 00:14:16,330 --> 00:14:20,130 S1: yesterday when Donald Trump threatened Russian President Vladimir Putin over 245 00:14:20,170 --> 00:14:23,210 S1: social media, writing that Putin was playing with fire by 246 00:14:23,210 --> 00:14:25,810 S1: refusing to engage in cease fire talks with Kyiv. And 247 00:14:25,810 --> 00:14:27,730 S1: then the Kremlin hit back. Maybe you can just tell 248 00:14:27,730 --> 00:14:29,810 S1: us about that and whether this is sort of, I guess, 249 00:14:29,810 --> 00:14:32,570 S1: a manifestation of what we're talking about, which is this 250 00:14:32,570 --> 00:14:34,410 S1: is not a strong empire anymore, which is going to 251 00:14:34,450 --> 00:14:35,250 S1: keep us safe. 252 00:14:35,290 --> 00:14:40,050 S2: Exactly. This is an exact manifestation of a country that 253 00:14:40,050 --> 00:14:45,530 S2: has no strategic credibility. Vladimir Putin's laughing up his sleeve. Likewise, 254 00:14:45,970 --> 00:14:50,410 S2: Trump announced 145% tariffs on China just a couple of 255 00:14:50,410 --> 00:14:53,810 S2: weeks ago. And China said, well, here's our counter-tariffs on you. 256 00:14:54,490 --> 00:14:58,330 S2: And five days later, Trump says, okay, okay, I you know, 257 00:14:58,730 --> 00:15:01,530 S2: you be nice. I'll be nice. And retreats takes it 258 00:15:01,530 --> 00:15:06,210 S2: back again. Temporarily at least. Chinese haven't budged. The Chinese 259 00:15:06,210 --> 00:15:12,450 S2: have called his bluff and he's back down. So wherever 260 00:15:12,450 --> 00:15:16,609 S2: you look, uh, nobody is taking the US as seriously 261 00:15:16,770 --> 00:15:19,890 S2: as it used to. As I said, Trump's not uniquely 262 00:15:19,890 --> 00:15:22,890 S2: responsible for this. Barack Obama started this. I should also 263 00:15:22,890 --> 00:15:25,930 S2: add that the Americans haven't always used their great power 264 00:15:25,930 --> 00:15:30,330 S2: very wisely. Some of the most atrocious, unjustifiable, and unjustified 265 00:15:30,330 --> 00:15:38,050 S2: wars have been American projects Vietnam, Iraq, terrible misjudgments with 266 00:15:38,050 --> 00:15:47,810 S2: terrible consequences. The difference was then that Samantha, there were 267 00:15:47,810 --> 00:15:53,170 S2: predators in the world. There was Russia. There is increasingly China. 268 00:15:54,330 --> 00:15:56,530 S2: There is also America. America has always been a predator, 269 00:15:56,530 --> 00:16:01,250 S2: but it's been our predator. And it's because we're its ally. Yes. 270 00:16:01,290 --> 00:16:05,050 S2: And that has helped protect our interests. What's happened now 271 00:16:05,050 --> 00:16:08,610 S2: is that there are these predators stalking the globe, and 272 00:16:08,850 --> 00:16:10,850 S2: we don't seem to be able to trust any of them. 273 00:16:11,130 --> 00:16:13,650 S1: But beyond that, we're looking at possibly the end of 274 00:16:13,650 --> 00:16:14,890 S1: the American empire. 275 00:16:14,930 --> 00:16:19,050 S2: Well, no great empire dies without death throes. And, uh, 276 00:16:19,530 --> 00:16:20,730 S2: that's what you would see. 277 00:16:23,050 --> 00:16:26,130 S1: It really it sort of leaves you jaw dropping. So 278 00:16:26,650 --> 00:16:27,890 S1: thank you so much, Peter. 279 00:16:27,930 --> 00:16:29,010 S2: Always a pleasure, Samantha. 280 00:16:34,250 --> 00:16:37,570 S1: Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself 281 00:16:37,570 --> 00:16:41,330 S1: and Josh towers, with technical assistance by Tom Compagnoni. Our 282 00:16:41,330 --> 00:16:44,930 S1: executive producer is Tammy Mills. Tom McKendrick is our head 283 00:16:44,930 --> 00:16:47,850 S1: of audio. To listen to our episodes as soon as 284 00:16:47,850 --> 00:16:51,690 S1: they drop, follow the Morning Edition on Apple, Spotify or 285 00:16:51,690 --> 00:16:56,330 S1: wherever you listen to podcasts. Our newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, 286 00:16:56,330 --> 00:17:02,530 S1: so to support independent journalism, visit The Age or smh.com.au. Subscribe. 287 00:17:03,130 --> 00:17:04,970 S1: And to stay up to date, sign up to our 288 00:17:04,970 --> 00:17:07,530 S1: Morning Edition newsletter to receive a summary of the day's 289 00:17:07,530 --> 00:17:11,810 S1: most important news in your inbox every morning. Links are 290 00:17:11,810 --> 00:17:16,170 S1: in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris, thanks for listening.