WEBVTT - Deep misjudgments and awful consequences: Peter Hartcher on Trump and Putin 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:10.920 They are wars on different fronts, but both are showcasing 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:14.720 what international and political editor Peter Hartcher says are the 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:19.759 deep misjudgments of leaders. Reporting this week revealed U.S. armaments 0:00:19.760 --> 0:00:22.800 are running low as war continues in the Middle East, 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.840 and the ramifications of the unbelievable nuclear deal that U.S. 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:30.960 President Donald Trump signed with Saudi Arabia are beginning to surface. 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:35.199 As for the Russia Ukraine war, Hartcher says the decisions 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:38.400 being made by Vladimir Putin aren't much better, with the 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:42.600 Russian president poised to begin a widespread and desperate recruitment 0:00:42.600 --> 0:00:47.280 drive for more soldiers. Today, Peter Hartcher on what he 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:56.960 calls the inglorious, disgraceful and counterproductive decisions of Trump and Putin. Peter, 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:58.440 welcome back to the podcast. 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:00.430 Pleasure to be with you, Samantha. 0:01:00.990 --> 0:01:03.430 Okay. I'm really hoping you can help us make sense 0:01:03.430 --> 0:01:06.709 of where things are at with the Us-iran war. Because 0:01:06.750 --> 0:01:10.590 on Tuesday, Australian time, Trump declared on Air Force One 0:01:10.590 --> 0:01:13.670 that the US was having good talks with Iran. And 0:01:13.670 --> 0:01:17.350 then around the same time, we saw news of Iranian 0:01:17.350 --> 0:01:21.990 strikes on Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq. Peter, what's happening? 0:01:22.590 --> 0:01:25.270 Well, you're asking me to make sense of what is 0:01:25.830 --> 0:01:31.069 essentially a pretty nonsensical set of circumstances. And straight after 0:01:31.069 --> 0:01:35.670 the events you've described, we then saw the US accusing 0:01:35.709 --> 0:01:39.670 the Iranians of attempting a surprise attack by firing ballistic 0:01:39.670 --> 0:01:42.310 missiles at a range of US bases in the region. 0:01:43.270 --> 0:01:48.030 So it makes no sense because primarily because I think 0:01:48.030 --> 0:01:55.150 of the geopolitical bipolar performance that Donald Trump puts on 0:01:55.150 --> 0:02:00.470 for the world every day, Where? On Monday it'll be. 0:02:00.870 --> 0:02:03.150 I'm going to bomb you to the Stone age. I'm 0:02:03.150 --> 0:02:07.550 going to destroy your civilization. Nothing will be left. And 0:02:07.550 --> 0:02:11.150 then the next day, they've agreed to all my terms. 0:02:11.710 --> 0:02:13.950 And then we're having, as you said, that you said 0:02:13.990 --> 0:02:18.470 they're having good negotiations. He called them very friendly talks. 0:02:19.430 --> 0:02:23.750 When the Iranians are busy targeting and firing ballistic missiles 0:02:24.270 --> 0:02:28.510 at US assets in the Gulf, I think the world 0:02:28.710 --> 0:02:33.430 has really grown a bit weary of this performance. It's 0:02:33.430 --> 0:02:36.310 like a high speed tennis match where you get whiplash, 0:02:36.550 --> 0:02:38.790 your head going from one side to the other. So 0:02:38.790 --> 0:02:40.669 that's why it's so difficult to make sense of it. 0:02:40.910 --> 0:02:43.750 The global oil market is having just as much trouble 0:02:43.750 --> 0:02:48.670 as traders and investors try to discern the signal through 0:02:48.669 --> 0:02:53.989 the noise. And ultimately, the only real way of gauging 0:02:54.030 --> 0:02:56.780 of finding the signal through all the noise is to 0:02:56.820 --> 0:03:00.620 watch the actions. The combat actions or lack of them 0:03:00.620 --> 0:03:03.020 on the ground. And if we look at that, we 0:03:03.020 --> 0:03:08.700 see that the Iranians have established a new form of leverage, 0:03:08.940 --> 0:03:12.220 a new great threat, a new source of power for 0:03:12.220 --> 0:03:14.859 their regime over the US and the world. And that's 0:03:15.260 --> 0:03:18.100 by closing the Strait of Hormuz, something they had not 0:03:18.100 --> 0:03:21.420 attempted before this war. And they've now discovered it's a 0:03:21.419 --> 0:03:25.780 tremendous source of power. And we see them continuing to 0:03:25.780 --> 0:03:30.739 enjoy that use, that resist all US efforts at either 0:03:30.780 --> 0:03:35.380 coercion or negotiation, and simply continuing with what they're doing 0:03:35.620 --> 0:03:39.740 while we see this bipolar performance from the US president. 0:03:40.780 --> 0:03:43.180 That's right. And, you know, the last time we spoke, 0:03:43.180 --> 0:03:44.620 or I think it was a couple of months ago, 0:03:44.660 --> 0:03:48.180 you reflected on how badly this war is going for 0:03:48.180 --> 0:03:50.380 Donald Trump. Obviously, it's a war of choice, he said. 0:03:50.380 --> 0:03:52.780 It'd be over very quickly. We're now in the fifth 0:03:52.780 --> 0:03:55.290 month And back then, a couple of months ago, you 0:03:55.290 --> 0:03:58.650 described him as dumb as a bag of hammers, reflecting 0:03:58.650 --> 0:04:00.730 on the choices he'd made, which, you know, were going 0:04:00.730 --> 0:04:03.610 badly on most fronts. And now you've said that he's 0:04:03.610 --> 0:04:06.490 running out of hammers, by which you mean that the 0:04:06.530 --> 0:04:09.330 US is running low on armaments. But, you know, that 0:04:09.330 --> 0:04:11.770 sounds that sounds not good, Peter. So how low are 0:04:11.770 --> 0:04:12.530 we talking? 0:04:13.250 --> 0:04:19.969 Well, we're talking low enough that last Friday when Trump 0:04:19.970 --> 0:04:26.890 had threatened more strikes on Iran, that a meeting between 0:04:26.890 --> 0:04:31.890 Trump and his military chiefs, specifically Dan Kane, the general 0:04:31.930 --> 0:04:35.130 who was the chair of the chiefs of the Joint 0:04:35.130 --> 0:04:39.409 Chiefs of Staff in the US military, advised Trump at 0:04:39.410 --> 0:04:46.250 this meeting that although they could continue to target Iran 0:04:46.290 --> 0:04:50.729 with missiles and more fire that it would send their 0:04:50.730 --> 0:04:56.490 stocks of a range of munitions, but most crucially, Patriot 0:04:56.529 --> 0:05:01.330 interceptor missiles to dangerously low levels where they might not 0:05:01.330 --> 0:05:05.849 be able fully to protect their their own bases, their 0:05:05.850 --> 0:05:09.570 own assets, and the bases and assets of the Gulf 0:05:09.570 --> 0:05:13.450 allies of the US. If Iran were to retaliate, which 0:05:13.490 --> 0:05:17.690 of course, Iran would do. Now that news was brought 0:05:17.690 --> 0:05:20.010 to us by the New York Times, Eric Schmidt and 0:05:20.010 --> 0:05:26.130 Jonathan Swan, and since confirmed by multiple other credible US 0:05:26.170 --> 0:05:30.890 outlets The Wall Street Journal, Reuters and so on, we 0:05:31.050 --> 0:05:33.969 look to be fair to Trump, Samantha, I should point 0:05:33.970 --> 0:05:38.370 out that going back to the Biden administration in the 0:05:38.370 --> 0:05:42.049 last few years of the Biden administration, I was in 0:05:42.050 --> 0:05:47.250 briefings where senior officials, senior security officials from the US 0:05:47.290 --> 0:05:51.240 were saying. But then they were deeply concerned about the 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:55.880 low stockpiles of US missiles and other munitions, and they 0:05:55.880 --> 0:06:01.120 were deeply concerned because they could see the possibility of 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:05.839 a war, um, breaking out with China, which has done 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:11.880 nothing but increase its stockpiles of every type of weapon system, ammunition, uh, 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:14.600 for the last certainly for the last 13 years since 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:18.520 XI Jinping has been president. They were deeply worried then, 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:21.880 and they had requested that the prime contractors in the 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:25.640 defense industry in the US increased their level of production. 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:32.839 Since then, we've seen the Trump and Israeli war against Iran. 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.480 Last year, that was a brief 12 day exchange, but 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:39.160 it still uses large numbers of munitions. And now we 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:42.670 see this war, which Trump confidently forecast would last 2 0:06:42.670 --> 0:06:45.360 to 4 weeks and is now in its fifth month 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:51.070 using up the ammunitions at a furious rate. So the 0:06:51.310 --> 0:06:55.429 white House has declined to update specific numbers of munition 0:06:55.430 --> 0:06:59.030 stockpiles for very good reason that you don't want to 0:06:59.029 --> 0:07:01.590 tip off your enemy about what your possible limits or 0:07:01.589 --> 0:07:06.029 vulnerabilities might be. So that's one very clear indicator that 0:07:06.029 --> 0:07:10.190 they're in deep trouble. And we will find out ultimately 0:07:10.190 --> 0:07:13.270 the exact numbers. But we can assume that there are 0:07:13.270 --> 0:07:17.390 numbers of interceptors for the Patriot system, which is essential 0:07:17.390 --> 0:07:23.310 to intercepting incoming ballistic missiles. Is is in that range 0:07:23.310 --> 0:07:26.790 of hundreds of missiles, not thousands. 0:07:27.870 --> 0:07:30.790 And so you wonder if that's the Iranians almost trolling 0:07:30.790 --> 0:07:33.190 the United States, knowing that its stocks are running low 0:07:33.230 --> 0:07:38.230 with its recent drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iraq 0:07:38.230 --> 0:07:41.590 and Jordan, I believe it was. And then you and 0:07:41.590 --> 0:07:44.310 I were speaking just before recording. And you reminded me, 0:07:44.310 --> 0:07:47.830 of course, that Trump is also sort of enraging the 0:07:47.830 --> 0:07:50.990 Iranians in a roundabout way. Around the same time. So 0:07:50.990 --> 0:07:53.390 can you just remind us about Trump's decision to ink 0:07:53.430 --> 0:07:56.790 a nuclear deal with the Saudi Arabians, and then how 0:07:57.070 --> 0:07:59.950 the Iranians would be sort of looking upon that decision? 0:08:00.910 --> 0:08:04.630 Well, this is another case. I mean, talk about dumb. 0:08:05.310 --> 0:08:11.710 This is an extraordinarily willful, erratic, ill considered decision like 0:08:11.710 --> 0:08:14.870 this war on Iran itself from the US point of view. 0:08:15.430 --> 0:08:18.430 So aimless a war that when I asked the doyen 0:08:18.470 --> 0:08:21.990 of Australian strategic commentators, Paul Dibb, a couple of months ago, 0:08:22.230 --> 0:08:25.070 when was the last time we'd seen such an aimless war, 0:08:25.070 --> 0:08:29.750 he had to reach back to the Crimean War 170 0:08:29.750 --> 0:08:35.510 years ago. It's just unbelievably amateur, ill considered and counterproductive. 0:08:35.790 --> 0:08:40.270 But this lays a whole extra layer of misjudgment and 0:08:40.270 --> 0:08:47.380 miscalculation and ultimately counterproductive outcomes. On top of all that by, well, 0:08:47.420 --> 0:08:52.579 first of all, agreeing to give Saudi Arabia civilian nuclear capability, 0:08:52.580 --> 0:08:56.340 which in turn would give them the ability to generate 0:08:56.380 --> 0:09:02.020 a fuel supply for a nuclear armament should they choose it. Now, 0:09:02.820 --> 0:09:07.260 first of all, that violates all the principles of non-proliferation, 0:09:07.260 --> 0:09:14.500 of nuclear weapons. But second, it then enrages Israel. Israel 0:09:14.500 --> 0:09:19.980 then complains. Trump then changes course, and after having signed 0:09:19.980 --> 0:09:22.900 the deal already with the Saudis, changes the terms and says, okay, 0:09:22.900 --> 0:09:26.500 we'll only give the Saudis this, these systems, these reactors 0:09:26.500 --> 0:09:30.540 and other nuclear systems, if they agree to diplomatic recognition 0:09:30.540 --> 0:09:32.820 of Israel, which means the Saudis, the Saudis have now 0:09:32.860 --> 0:09:35.180 objected and said, no way, we can't do that with 0:09:35.220 --> 0:09:37.860 this war on the Palestinians and all the rest of it. 0:09:38.140 --> 0:09:41.689 So now the Israelis are upset. The Saudis are upset, It, 0:09:41.690 --> 0:09:47.690 but even more counterproductive. Samantha, is that Trump went into this, 0:09:47.690 --> 0:09:51.770 and he has used multiple justifications for the war on Iran. 0:09:52.050 --> 0:09:54.610 But if there's one that he keeps coming back to 0:09:54.650 --> 0:09:57.130 above all the others, it's that he wants to deny 0:09:57.170 --> 0:10:01.329 Iran the ability to have nuclear weapons. Well, what greater 0:10:01.330 --> 0:10:05.770 incentive could he have? What greater incentive could Trump give 0:10:05.890 --> 0:10:09.370 the Iranians to want to develop nuclear weapons than arming 0:10:09.370 --> 0:10:13.890 the Saudis with a civilian nuclear system, which could be 0:10:13.890 --> 0:10:19.449 used to produce nuclear weaponry? Because, of course, the Saudis 0:10:19.450 --> 0:10:22.689 and the Iranians are enemies, have been for many years, 0:10:22.690 --> 0:10:25.890 and now they're literally at war with each other. So 0:10:25.890 --> 0:10:29.530 now Trump has said that he will give the Saudis 0:10:30.170 --> 0:10:33.730 one of the enemies of Iran, this nuclear capability. So 0:10:33.730 --> 0:10:38.370 it's directly counterproductive and counter to the aim that he's 0:10:38.370 --> 0:10:41.370 trying to achieve of a The denuclearized Iran by giving 0:10:41.410 --> 0:10:45.770 Iran potentially a strong new incentive to go ahead and 0:10:45.770 --> 0:10:51.290 resume its nuclear weapons program. Unbelievable on every level. 0:10:53.050 --> 0:10:54.010 After the break. 0:10:54.730 --> 0:10:57.809 This is what we are seeing as this war grinds 0:10:57.809 --> 0:11:02.530 through its fifth year grinds through an estimated total injured 0:11:02.530 --> 0:11:07.450 and killed Russians of 1.2 million men. 0:11:17.450 --> 0:11:18.730 That would be unbelievable. 0:11:18.730 --> 0:11:20.929 Enough, right? That would be enough for one column and 0:11:20.929 --> 0:11:26.809 enough unbelievable military. Uh, I guess poor decisions or counterproductive 0:11:26.809 --> 0:11:29.770 decisions that would be marveling at for months, let alone 0:11:29.770 --> 0:11:32.250 a week. But your last column didn't discover that. It 0:11:32.250 --> 0:11:37.410 also covered another leader who is faring extremely badly in 0:11:37.410 --> 0:11:39.880 his war against a much tinier nation. And that, of course, 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.679 is Vladimir Putin. So tell us about Putin's now desperate 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:45.600 recruitment drive for soldiers. 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.720 Well, yes, I was so generous, Samantha, in my column 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:51.200 as to call them Dumb and Dumber. 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:52.400 Yeah. That's right. 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:53.040 Um. 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.600 Which would be funny if it wasn't so potentially catastrophic. Right. 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:59.880 It would be funny if people were dying. Uh, yes. 0:11:59.880 --> 0:12:03.199 And if the if all of the other consequences are 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.800 to flow weren't flowing, but they are. Uh, and this 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:10.120 is just a shocking series of misjudgments by both these powers, 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.080 which of course were the superpowers of the last century 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:18.319 now reduced to these wars of hubris, which are producing, uh, 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:24.120 these deep, uh, misjudgments, producing these awful consequences. So, yes, 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:27.480 Vladimir Putin is running out of troops to put in 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.760 the front line because they are being killed and maimed 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.640 at such a high rate. You will recall that at 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:38.000 the outset of his invasion, uh, his full scale invasion 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:39.920 of Ukraine four years ago, four and a bit years 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:45.760 ago now, he made a general mobilization of 300,000. All 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:51.520 the reservists in Russia, deeply unpopular. Tens of thousands, maybe 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:56.320 hundreds of thousands of Russian men of military service age, uh, 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:59.760 rushed to the borders and left the country. And he's 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:01.760 been trying to avoid Putin has been trying to avoid 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:05.760 repeating a general call up or a widespread mobilization. They've 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:10.880 had trouble recruiting soldiers for years now. They've had programs 0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:15.640 in Russian jails to offer release and, uh, payment to 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.040 criminals who would like to serve in the Russian military 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:23.520 against Ukraine. They've run campaigns among homeless people, very poor, 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:27.920 the impoverished. Now they're targeting they've got a campaign going 0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:32.880 among university students. They're paying unheard of wages. They're offering 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.950 for a 12 month contract, to serve in the front 0:13:35.990 --> 0:13:42.949 line against Ukraine. Up to $100,000. In a country where 0:13:43.950 --> 0:13:48.590 the median income is 14,000. We're talking US dollars. So 0:13:49.110 --> 0:13:50.830 these are the measures that have been going to. And 0:13:50.830 --> 0:13:52.990 yet it's still not enough. So in the last couple 0:13:53.030 --> 0:13:58.310 of days, we've seen the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, say 0:13:58.309 --> 0:14:02.430 that according to their intelligence, Russia is now asking North 0:14:02.429 --> 0:14:07.470 Korea to supply 30,000 new North Korean fighters to go 0:14:07.470 --> 0:14:10.910 to the front line and fight for Russia. Last year, 0:14:10.910 --> 0:14:15.350 you'll remember, the North Koreans sent an estimate of 14,000 troops, 0:14:15.670 --> 0:14:19.510 of whom some 2000 were killed in the war. Another 0:14:19.510 --> 0:14:25.550 5000 approximately injured. And now and then they, after having served, 0:14:25.550 --> 0:14:29.350 they returned home. Now Putin's asking for 30,000 more, which 0:14:29.350 --> 0:14:30.990 will not get him out of trouble, because at the 0:14:30.990 --> 0:14:34.620 current rates of attrition, that will only do him for 0:14:34.620 --> 0:14:38.220 about a month. That's only a month's worth of replenishment 0:14:38.220 --> 0:14:40.940 of his army. That's the rate at which the Ukrainians 0:14:40.940 --> 0:14:46.500 have been either killing or maiming Russian soldiers. So further 0:14:46.500 --> 0:14:50.900 to that, Zelensky tells us that he. The Ukrainian intelligence system, 0:14:51.260 --> 0:14:54.140 which generally, I should say from the beginning of this war, 0:14:54.140 --> 0:14:57.380 has been accurate in its intelligence, insofar as we've heard 0:14:57.380 --> 0:15:01.739 about it. He is hearing that the Russians are preparing 0:15:01.740 --> 0:15:06.940 for a general mobilization. They've got parliamentary elections coming in September. 0:15:06.940 --> 0:15:11.860 So perhaps after those elections, and we do see some signs. Uh, 0:15:11.860 --> 0:15:14.340 for example, just in the last few days, the Russians 0:15:14.340 --> 0:15:19.460 have closed rail crossings into three neighboring countries, perhaps closing 0:15:19.500 --> 0:15:24.460 escape routes for service age men. So this is what 0:15:24.460 --> 0:15:27.780 we are seeing as this war grinds through its fifth year, 0:15:27.820 --> 0:15:33.460 grinds through an estimated total injured and killed Russians of 0:15:33.460 --> 0:15:36.220 1.2 million men. 0:15:37.780 --> 0:15:40.140 I mean, it's just astonishing. I think it's sort of 0:15:40.180 --> 0:15:42.260 easy to lose sight of it in and amongst the 0:15:42.260 --> 0:15:44.500 Daily News. But also, like you say, this full scale 0:15:44.500 --> 0:15:47.180 war has been going for so many years now. And 0:15:47.180 --> 0:15:48.460 I was I have to admit, I was left a 0:15:48.460 --> 0:15:51.340 bit gape mouthed by something that you included in your 0:15:51.340 --> 0:15:54.100 latest column about this. And this is that according to 0:15:54.140 --> 0:15:58.740 Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, the authors wrote, quote, 0:15:58.780 --> 0:16:01.980 no major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of 0:16:01.980 --> 0:16:05.260 casualties or fatalities in any war since World War Two. 0:16:05.300 --> 0:16:09.980 The talking there about the Russian casualties and fatalities. So, 0:16:10.020 --> 0:16:13.620 I mean, I guess how much longer does this perhaps 0:16:13.620 --> 0:16:16.180 suggest that Putin can keep going? You know, he has 0:16:16.180 --> 0:16:19.300 so far, of course, racked up so many losses, only 0:16:19.300 --> 0:16:22.740 tiny gains. And in that study, those report authors Seth 0:16:22.740 --> 0:16:26.260 Jones and Riley McCabe said that at the current rates combined, 0:16:26.260 --> 0:16:30.250 Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by a 0:16:30.250 --> 0:16:34.050 few months from now, essentially. So that's terrifying. 0:16:34.730 --> 0:16:39.050 It is. And, uh, you have to feel for the 0:16:39.090 --> 0:16:44.290 Russian citizens, the civilians who are being called up, bribed, misled. 0:16:44.490 --> 0:16:47.290 They've got a whole a recruitment program running, by the way, 0:16:47.690 --> 0:16:52.490 in Africa trying to mislead African men, offering them various 0:16:52.530 --> 0:16:54.930 employment contracts, getting them to Russia and then giving them 0:16:54.930 --> 0:16:57.610 a gun and pushing them onto the front line. So 0:16:57.970 --> 0:17:00.850 he's been desperate for a long time. He's getting increasingly desperate, 0:17:01.250 --> 0:17:06.570 but he obviously feels that his own political survival is 0:17:06.570 --> 0:17:11.970 more important than the lives pointlessly lost, because he's making 0:17:11.970 --> 0:17:15.810 no real progress and hasn't been for months. If anything, 0:17:15.810 --> 0:17:19.770 the tide has turned in Ukraine's favour. The sheer pointlessness 0:17:19.770 --> 0:17:23.930 of this exercise, the pointlessness of the injury and death 0:17:23.930 --> 0:17:27.639 to this whole generation of Russian men I shouldn't say 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.560 generation because they're now recruiting. They have been recruiting and 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:35.760 snaffling and press ganging old guys as well. Anybody, basically 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:38.480 even men who are being medically discharged with a leg 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:40.840 blown off are being sent back on crutches into the 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:44.840 front lines. So this level of desperation is only increasing. 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.160 He's putting his own political survival above the survival of 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:53.240 his own people. And he judges, presumably, that the cost 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:57.800 to him of surrender politically would be greater than the costs, 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:01.440 the risks to him politically of continuing. So he presumably 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:06.000 thinks he can get away with continued political domination at home, 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:10.600 so long as he keeps this nationalist, triumphalist narrative running 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:13.240 and the deceit of his people, that this is a 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:17.800 glorious war being fought in a great and glorious cause, 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:24.720 when in fact, it's, uh, it's entirely inglorious, disgraceful, and counterproductive. 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:27.359 Okay. Well, Peter, just to wrap up, you know, at 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:30.280 the very beginning, we've spoken about how you were referring 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:32.760 to Trump and Putin as dumb and dumber in terms 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:36.120 of their, you know, massive geopolitical blunders. So you've sort 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:39.120 of walked us through all of all of Trump's. How 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.200 would you rate Putin in return? 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:46.480 Well, quite apart from the domestic price that the Russian 0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:50.280 people and economy are paying for this. If you take 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.600 a step back. Well, let me refer to the president 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:56.639 of Finland, Alex Sturm, who told me in an interview 0:18:56.640 --> 0:19:00.800 last year that he thinks this is at that time, 0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:05.920 the greatest geopolitical blunder in modern history. It'd be interesting 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:09.120 to ask him to rate that now against Trump's as well. 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.200 But the reason he made that case was he said 0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:17.480 going into this war, Putin wanted to dismantle NATO, divide 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:23.000 the EU and therefore dominate Europe. Instead, what he's achieved 0:19:23.310 --> 0:19:28.990 is Sweden joined NATO. Finland joined NATO. NATO has been enlarged, 0:19:28.990 --> 0:19:33.790 not contracted at all. Russia's border with NATO countries has 0:19:33.790 --> 0:19:38.109 more than doubled. Although Donald Trump has been doing great 0:19:38.109 --> 0:19:42.990 damage to NATO in his own right, NATO still remains 0:19:42.990 --> 0:19:46.670 a functional entity, as far as we can tell. The 0:19:46.670 --> 0:19:52.070 EU has never been more united and Europe, generally led 0:19:52.070 --> 0:19:57.870 by the Germans, despite their pacifist post-war policies, are now 0:19:57.910 --> 0:20:02.470 leading a rearmament of Europe to defend against Putin in 0:20:02.470 --> 0:20:07.470 a way that is only counterproductive to his aims and 0:20:07.470 --> 0:20:11.070 strengthens Europe in the medium term. So there you have it. 0:20:11.270 --> 0:20:15.750 Exactly which of these leaders is guilty? Trump and Putin 0:20:15.790 --> 0:20:21.980 of the greatest, grandest strategic blunder in modern history. We 0:20:21.980 --> 0:20:26.260 can only really judge when they finished these operations and 0:20:26.260 --> 0:20:29.340 we can see the consequences. But I think it's very 0:20:29.340 --> 0:20:32.500 clear that both of them are counter to their own 0:20:32.540 --> 0:20:39.220 initial intentions and being compounded by their political vanity in 0:20:39.220 --> 0:20:44.300 continuing without conducting good faith negotiations in either case. 0:20:48.460 --> 0:20:51.940 Well, thank you so much, Peter, as always, for your time. 0:20:52.980 --> 0:20:55.980 Tough subject, but good to chat with you, Samantha. 0:21:01.580 --> 0:21:04.740 In other news, today, the number of first home buyers 0:21:04.740 --> 0:21:07.220 looking to take out a home loan has fallen in 0:21:07.220 --> 0:21:10.420 a year, even as property prices soften in some parts 0:21:10.420 --> 0:21:13.619 of the country and investors move out of the market. 0:21:14.260 --> 0:21:18.580 Australia's largest oil and gas producer, Woodside Energy, has emerged 0:21:18.580 --> 0:21:22.020 as one of the nation's biggest corporate beneficiaries of the 0:21:22.020 --> 0:21:26.780 Iran war, reporting nearly a 30% revenue jump to $6 0:21:26.780 --> 0:21:31.139 billion over the past three months. And Melbourne Fashion Festival 0:21:31.180 --> 0:21:35.380 today announces that its rebranding to be called Australian Fashion Festival. 0:21:35.660 --> 0:21:37.700 The change is part of a suite of updates that 0:21:37.700 --> 0:21:40.820 seek to deepen the organisation's commitment to being a consumer 0:21:40.859 --> 0:21:45.500 led program and strengthen designer relationships. You can read more 0:21:45.540 --> 0:21:52.940 at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by 0:21:52.980 --> 0:21:56.419 Kai Wang. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our 0:21:56.420 --> 0:22:00.780 podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If 0:22:00.820 --> 0:22:03.620 you like our show, follow The Morning Edition and leave 0:22:03.619 --> 0:22:07.500 a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.