S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
S1: This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Cylinder Morris. It's Wednesday,
S1: May 7th. This election was always going to be the
S1: test for the Greens, because the thinking had long been
S1: that any election after a Labour government's first term would
S1: be their moment. This would be when disgruntled labor voters,
S1: disappointed that Anthony Albanese hadn't gone far enough on social issues,
S1: would turn in disgust to the Greens. They would be
S1: absolutely harvesting votes today. National affairs editor James Massola on
S1: why the Greens dream of more seats turned instead into
S1: a profound loss. So, James, just to start off, what
S1: was the position that the Greens held prior to the
S1: election and what was the party actually hoping to achieve?
S1: You know, as the votes were being tallied.
S2: Sure, Sam, and thanks for having me on. Look, before
S2: the election was called, the Greens had 11 seats in
S2: the Senate and four seats in the lower house. They
S2: had started the last term with 12. But of course,
S2: Lidia Thorpe defected to the crossbench.
S1: Okay. And so, I mean, is it safe to say
S1: that their expectations were a bit sky high, like they
S1: were seeking to regain four existing seats and add five more?
S2: Yeah. Look. That's right. Um, like every political party, the
S2: Greens went into this election with high hopes and talking
S2: up big plans and bigger ambitions if you like to
S2: win more seats. So they. The party had been hoping
S2: to win Wills in Victoria, just sort of bordering Melbourne.
S2: So inner city Melbourne they had hoped to win Richmond.
S2: A woman named Mandy Nolan was running for a second
S2: time there. She had a good, they believed, a very
S2: good chance of winning. Uh, Fremantle in WA was another
S2: target seat for them, and there was a couple of
S2: others that, in my view, were perhaps a bit more optimistic.
S2: But yeah, they had five target seats for this election.
S2: That's right Sam.
S1: Okay, so let's talk through the results then. Because before
S1: recording you described it as, you know, mixed. They had
S1: some big swings towards them, but they've also lost key seats.
S1: And at the time that we're recording this on Tuesday morning,
S1: the party's leader Adam Bandt, is perilously close to losing
S1: his own seat in Melbourne. So what's happened.
S2: Like much of this election, Sam, it's a stunning story
S2: and one that I think will be, uh, kind of
S2: looking over the entrails of or reading the tea leaves
S2: or whatever metaphor you want to use for some time
S2: to come. So look, first of all the numbers, it
S2: looks like the greens will win six seats in the
S2: Senate again. So they're not going backwards in the Senate. Um,
S2: but in the lower house it's a different story. And
S2: for the Greens, it's not a great story. As you mentioned,
S2: Adam Bandt is trailing in the seat of Melbourne at
S2: the moment. It's something like a 5% lead that his
S2: labor opponent enjoys at the moment, with about 65, 66%
S2: of the vote counted that, you know, that's not an
S2: insurmountable lead by any means, but it's going to be tough. Um,
S2: I'd say the potential or rather a potential future leader
S2: of the Greens, Max Chandler-mather, you know, very outspoken in
S2: the previous term, very high profile for a first term MP.
S2: He's lost in the seat of Griffith. That was Kevin
S2: Rudd's seat once. Labor has got it back. Similarly, in Brisbane,
S2: Stephen Bates, a much lower profile MP. He's lost his seat. Um,
S2: Samantha Ratnam, who's the former state Greens leader in Victoria.
S2: She was attempting to win Wills and she's not going
S2: to get there. We believe at this point in time.
S2: Similarly with Mandy Nolan in Richmond. So what we are
S2: looking at is a scenario where the Greens most likely
S2: have gone, will go down from four seats in the
S2: lower house to one. Um, the only person who looks
S2: like they're on track to hang onto their seat is, um,
S2: Elizabeth Watson-brown in the seat of Ryan in inner city Brisbane.
S1: Okay, so let's talk about what's happened here because Greens
S1: leader Adam Bandt, you know, he's blamed the mixed results
S1: on Liberal Labor preference deals, which he says were designed
S1: to lock the Greens out. So is he right? Is
S1: this what's happened?
S2: Look, these preference deals have played a part in locking
S2: out the greens and some of these seats. But I mean,
S2: that's my view, Sam. That's part of politics. Adam Bandt
S2: was elected to parliament in 2010 off the back of
S2: Liberal Party preferences. They put him ahead of the then
S2: labor candidate, Cathy O'Toole. I believe her name was. And
S2: you know, she missed out. He got up. So yes,
S2: he can be cranky about it, but it's the ebb
S2: and flow of politics. It's part of the rough and
S2: tumble of politics. Um, another thing I think, you know, personally,
S2: I find quite interesting in that, you know, band has
S2: been quick to point out, is that the Greens have
S2: actually increased their overall vote at this election. You know,
S2: across the country, if you tally it all up, the
S2: problem has been simply Sam. They haven't increased it in
S2: the places it needed to increase. It wasn't concentrated in
S2: the correct seats. It was more of a small surge
S2: or small rise across the country.
S1: Okay. So tell us so where where did they need
S1: to put their focus that they just didn't, you know,
S1: where is the massive mistake here I guess.
S2: Yeah. Look I'm not it's that's a difficult question to answer, Sam,
S2: because I don't know that you could sort of immediately say, well, they,
S2: you know, didn't realize that they needed to win Melbourne or,
S2: you know, they weren't trying in Griffith or anything like that.
S2: I mean, they, they were trying they were campaigning hard.
S2: Max Chandler-mather in particular is a great on the ground campaigner,
S2: as we saw in 2022. So I don't think there
S2: was a strategic failure in the sense that they weren't
S2: doing the work. The work was being done. They were
S2: working hard in their target seats like Wills and Richmond
S2: to there were resources put in on the ground in
S2: those target seats and in the seats that they wanted
S2: to hold on to. What has happened simply is, I guess,
S2: a microcosm or a replication of what's happened around the country,
S2: which is simply that Labor's vote surged, the coalition vote sank. Um,
S2: and and the Greens have kind of been I think
S2: you'd have to say roadkill.
S1: Right. Okay. Well, let's get into the issues here because, well,
S1: for one thing, I'm really fascinated about what happened to
S1: the youth vote here because we know for the first time,
S1: Gen Z millennials, they outnumbered baby boomers in the federal election.
S1: So you would have thought that this might lead to
S1: the Greens doing particularly well this time around. So what happened?
S2: Yeah, again, one of the most fascinating aspects of this result.
S2: And again, they're just there are so many at this election, um,
S2: the Greens identified before the last election, renters as a
S2: growing cohort of mostly younger people that they could target,
S2: that they could harvest the votes of that they could,
S2: you know, they hoped, turn into the next generation of
S2: Greens voters. And that worked in 2022. And we saw
S2: through the 22 to 25 Parliament, the 47th Parliament, that
S2: they maintained that focus on housing and on renters quite successfully. Um,
S2: you know, much to the annoyance of the Prime Minister,
S2: as we saw in some of those exchanges between him
S2: and Chandler-mather in Parliament when the Greens initially blocked the
S2: Housing Australia Future Fund. So what's happened now? I mean,
S2: I'd like to see the data of something like the
S2: Australian National University's election survey. I'd like to see some
S2: of that data to absolutely know for sure that it's correct.
S2: But what I suspect is, is that Labor's policies on
S2: housing were, well, they cut through. They were seen to
S2: be effective. They were seen. I mean, there was a
S2: suite of policies that the government was offering. Right. Um
S2: Housing Australia Future Fund, the government going essentially sort of
S2: guarantor so that you could buy as a first home buyer,
S2: a house with a deposit of just 5%. And the
S2: government would help you with the rest so you could
S2: avoid mortgage insurance. There was a number of other policies too, obviously,
S2: and I think I think it cut through. I think
S2: labor actually, it's just as simple as they ran a
S2: good campaign, they had a good policy offering. Um, housing,
S2: as we know, is one of the most hot button
S2: issues in the country. And it worked.
S1: And do you think that maybe the reason the Greens
S1: haven't succeeded here is because they wanted the perfect solution
S1: for housing, and perhaps they were just not seen as
S1: a very serious policy platform, you know, because they would
S1: accept nothing less than perfection, perhaps.
S2: Yeah, exactly. It was a case of the greens making
S2: the perfect the enemy of the good in some ways.
S2: And there'll be Greens supporters listening to this who will
S2: resent me saying this. But in some ways it's analogous
S2: to their decision to block the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
S2: towards the end of 2009, when they voted with the
S2: Liberal Party, they defeated Kevin Rudd's CPRS, and that then
S2: kicked off the whole sequence of events that led to
S2: the change to Julia Gillard, the very poor 2010 election
S2: for labor, a whole series of of, you know, issues, problems,
S2: whatever you want to call them flowed from that. And
S2: I think that's happened here too. You know, personally, Anthony
S2: Albanese and I do mean personally was determined to defeat
S2: Max Chandler-mather. He, as we all know, grew up in
S2: public housing. He was, you know, personally offended that the
S2: Greens decided to delay legislation that would have facilitated the
S2: building of more public housing. You know, the sort of
S2: housing he grew up in. So he made it his
S2: mission to to sort of not compromise with the Greens
S2: to get that legislation through which they eventually did, and
S2: to go after the people led by Max, who'd blocked
S2: him from implementing his agenda. And it worked, right?
S1: It did. And let's get on to, I guess, you know,
S1: another signature policy or platform, I guess for the Greens,
S1: of course, was their hardline stance on Gaza. They went
S1: hard backing Palestinians and the war with Israel. Did this
S1: hurt the party in this election?
S2: I think this definitely hurt the party. And I think
S2: that the optics of their close alignment with the construction, forestry,
S2: Mining and Energy Union when there were allegations, serious allegations
S2: being made in these, you know, published in the Sydney
S2: Morning Herald and The Age about the conduct of some
S2: union officials that led to the union being placed in administration.
S2: I think their decision to stand so closely with the
S2: CFMEU probably put a few voters off as well. You know,
S2: in in seats like Griffith where they may have gone,
S2: or Ryan or Brisbane straight from the Liberal Party to,
S2: you know, people might have gone straight from the Liberal
S2: Party to voting for the Greens. And then, you know,
S2: through the course of that three years, I think some
S2: people saw that and said, you know what, I don't
S2: that doesn't represent my views at all on Gaza or
S2: on the CFMEU, and they've been punished for that.
S1: And perhaps no surprise there. It was Max Chandler-mather who
S1: very prominently stood up, I believe, at a CFMEU rally.
S1: And I think a lot of people were quite shocked.
S1: Is that right?
S2: Yeah. I mean, labor couldn't believe their luck that that
S2: had happened and that that moment, that rally, that appearance
S2: by Max Chandler-mather, um, they made use of that to
S2: remind or rather to paint, uh, that particular MP, former MP,
S2: as extreme and as sort of out of touch with the, uh,
S2: the views of the people of Griffith.
S1: Okay, so what now? I've got to ask for the
S1: party's leadership, you know, is, is the party still going
S1: to support Adam Bandt in this new Parliament because I,
S1: I noted when you spoke on the pod, I think
S1: it was November last year. At that time, Adam Bandt
S1: was polling, I think, in a Resolve political Monitor poll.
S1: He was judged as the third least popular politician in Australia.
S1: I think he was trailing only behind Lidia Thorpe at
S1: number one and then Pauline Hanson, and then he was
S1: equal third least liked politician along with Bob Katter. So
S1: is the Greens going to stick with that band?
S2: I think that's very much an open question, Sam. Um,
S2: the Greens party room process is how they pick leaders,
S2: how all that goes down. It's not particularly opaque. I
S2: remember a few months after the 2010 federal election, Bob Brown,
S2: who was then still the leader of the party, was
S2: holding a press conference about something or other, and he
S2: just casually let slip that, uh, the then quite young
S2: senator Sarah Hanson-Young, had challenged Christine Milne for the deputy's
S2: job and lost. No one had any idea for four months.
S2: And we all our jaws all hit the floor What? Sorry. Um, look,
S2: Adam Bandt is seen generally as, uh, having been a
S2: pretty good Greens leader. He, uh, improved their seat count
S2: in 2022 in the lower house. It's gone backwards this
S2: time round, but the national vote has grown. Bandt, if
S2: he wants, it, will be arguing that the overall Greens,
S2: you know, number of votes collected harvested has increased. There's
S2: been stability for the last 4 or 5 years. Uh
S2: and that they should stick with him. Right. Um, but
S2: there will be and I mean, I know there are
S2: other ambitious people in that party room, and I am
S2: sure that they are making phone calls at the moment. Um, and, uh,
S2: you know, testing the waters, uh, sizing up whether to
S2: challenge Adam Bandt when the greens, you know, the ones
S2: who have been elected return to their party room in Canberra.
S2: It's a wait and see at this stage.
S1: Okay, so give us the names though, James. Which which
S1: names should we be looking out for? Who? Who might
S1: just be challenging for the leadership in the future?
S2: Sure. Look, we're not suggesting that these not suggesting that I'm,
S2: that I know for sure that these people you know
S2: are going to contest. But there are talented MPs in
S2: that party room who could run. Um, Larissa Waters, the
S2: deputy leader, um, from Queensland, Sarah Hanson-Young, who I mentioned
S2: a moment ago, who's still, I think, you know, young
S2: but has been in Parliament now for 18 or 19
S2: years and has a stack of experience. Um, Mehreen Faruqi,
S2: the the sort of overall deputy rather than the Senate leader,
S2: which is waters she could challenge for the position and
S2: even someone from left field like a David Shoebridge. Um,
S2: maybe he'll put his hand up. I'm not saying that
S2: I know that any of those people will, but they're
S2: all in my mind. People with the potential to lead
S2: the party.
S1: Okay, now just to wrap up, James, I've got to
S1: ask what role the Greens will be able to play
S1: going forward because despite losing seats, the party says it
S1: has a record vote in the Senate. So what's going
S1: to go on there? Will the Greens help or hinder labor?
S2: Uh, that's I mean, that for me is perhaps the
S2: most interesting question because and I say that because of this, Sam,
S2: all through the last parliament, Albanese, you know, who spent decades,
S2: you know, fighting the Greens off in his own seat
S2: of Grayndler, spoke about how he didn't want to do deals.
S2: He wasn't going to kowtow. You know, he didn't compromise
S2: on the housing legislation. And eventually he got through exactly
S2: what he wanted to get through with a couple of
S2: minor tweaks. I think we're going to see more of
S2: the same. And we know that Adam Bandt has been
S2: out in recent days saying now the Greens have sole
S2: balance of power. Labor must put dental into Medicare and
S2: they must revise the Aukus plan, and they must do
S2: this and they must do that. There's no musts that
S2: Anthony Albanese is going to acquiesce to there. And what
S2: I think Bandt is at risk of doing already is
S2: sort of overplaying his hand, because he's forgetting that there
S2: is actually another party that has the balance of power
S2: in the Senate, and that's the coalition. Labor can team
S2: up with the coalition and pass legislation at any time
S2: all through the 1980s. Once, once, uh, John Howard took
S2: over from Andrew Peacock, Howard actually supported some of Labor's
S2: biggest reforms in, you know, in a policy sense. And
S2: while it arguably extended the coalition's period of time in opposition,
S2: it also allowed the coalition to rebuild its credibility as
S2: a serious party that was working towards being ready to
S2: govern again now. Such was the result on Saturday night.
S2: It will be tough for the liberals to win in 2028.
S2: They might even have to be thinking about 2031. So
S2: that means there's an opportunity for the next leader of
S2: the liberals to really think about, well, what do we
S2: want to do with the next 3 to 6 years?
S2: Where do we want to position ourselves on policy, and
S2: do we want to remake ourselves as a slightly less
S2: hardline oppositionist to everything party? And if they do that,
S2: then the Greens will be irrelevant. And certainly Anthony Albanese
S2: will be looking to do deals with the liberals, at
S2: least on some legislation, say on national security type legislation,
S2: because he doesn't trust them, you know, their instincts on
S2: these sorts of matters. So Bant is already talking a
S2: big game, but I think he needs to be a
S2: bit more circumspect at this early stage.
S1: Sam, this is so fascinating. I hope we get to
S1: speak about this sometime soon. James.
S2: Thanks, Sam. Pleasure.
S1: Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Josh towers.
S1: Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Tom McKendrick is our
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S1: Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris.
S1: Thanks for listening.