WEBVTT - Is our housing bubble beginning to burst?

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<v S1>Our four biggest banks have reported a drop in the

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<v S1>numbers of people taking out mortgage loans. One has even

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<v S1>forecast a significant drop in house prices in two cities.

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<v S1>But then came the reserve Bank governor last week with

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<v S1>a stern warning. I'm Samantha Zellinger Maurice, and you're listening

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<v S1>to Morning Edition. From The Age and the Sydney Morning

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<v S1>Herald today, senior economics correspondent Shane Wright on whether the

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<v S1>housing bubble is finally beginning to burst. It's August the 18th. Shane,

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<v S1>welcome back to the podcast.

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<v S2>Oh, why wouldn't I come back to see your happy

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<v S2>face again, Sam?

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<v S3>Well, I'll tell you, I think I'm happy as a

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<v S3>result of reading your last feature. Tell me if I've

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<v S3>read it right. First off, let's start by you telling

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<v S3>us what the economics team from the ANZ Bank has

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<v S3>said about housing prices in Sydney and in Melbourne falling

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<v S3>going forward.

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<v S2>That's right. We've had a lot of new forecasts out

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<v S2>from the big banks and the ANZ. Their economics team

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<v S2>is predicting it's like a 14.5% fall in Sydney's median

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<v S2>house prices between this year and into next. Just under 13%

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<v S2>for Melbourne and smaller falls across all the other capital cities.

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<v S2>And this would then be corrected in 2028, with house

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<v S2>prices supposedly going up. They're the most bearish of all

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<v S2>the big economics teams, and the history of predictions on

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<v S2>house prices is pretty terrible from most from most analysts.

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<v S2>It's very difficult to pick because you also have to

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<v S2>take into account what the reserve Bank might get up

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<v S2>to and other big macro effects. So always difficult. But

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<v S2>these have generated a lot of interest because a lot

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<v S2>of people seem to think that house prices never fall

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<v S2>in this country. And my goodness, I could sell these

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<v S2>people a bridge over Sydney Harbour because there is a

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<v S2>long history of price, corrections, price, downfalls and most infamously,

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<v S2>an absolute crash which precipitated probably our worst depression. But

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<v S2>neither you or I were around for the 1890s depression

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<v S2>of Melbourne where, uh, where house prices actually fell 50%. Wow. Yeah,

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<v S2>it was all tied up with the financial system in

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<v S2>Melbourne at the time. Very different world. Um, and it

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<v S2>was one of the reasons that Sydney became larger than

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<v S2>Melbourne and became the financial centre of the, of the

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<v S2>country because of what happened in the 1890s.

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<v S1>It's interesting. And there's also been some other metrics out

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<v S1>there that you might help us, uh, read into to

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<v S1>sort of find out how our housing market is at

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<v S1>the moment. So I guess just tell us about our

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<v S1>country's other biggest banks besides the ANZ. What have they revealed?

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<v S1>In particular, I guess, about how many loan applications they

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<v S1>have received or not, because they also have released financial updates, right?

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<v S2>Yeah. So all the banks like the ANZ, NAB and

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<v S2>Westpac released their their quarterly results last week. And the

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<v S2>Commonwealth Bank released its annual results. And all of them

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<v S2>have picked up that there's been a big fall in

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<v S2>applications for mortgages since the budget. Now they were there

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<v S2>had been this had been slowing beforehand because of the

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<v S2>reserve Bank starting to increase interest rates in February. And

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<v S2>there was a little thing like the war that kicked

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<v S2>off on February 28th, which has really affected the global economy.

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<v S2>Anyone with a petrol driven car or a diesel driven

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<v S2>truck would clearly understand what's been going on in that space.

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<v S2>But really sizeable falls in applications predominantly amongst investors, which

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<v S2>is effectively exactly what the government was expecting. And that

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<v S2>was on the top of the box saying, we're going

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<v S2>to do these changes. We're going to have fewer investors

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<v S2>competing against first home buyers. There is some conflicting advice

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<v S2>about what's coming out in terms of first home buyers specifically.

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<v S2>Some have picked up a big fall, others have not.

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<v S2>Have said no, it hasn't. There hasn't been a big

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<v S2>drop off in first home buyers accessing it. The government's

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<v S2>own 5% deposit scheme, which is managed by Housing Australia.

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<v S2>They were. pre-Budget getting 188 applications a day. It's fallen

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<v S2>to 186. So yeah, I think that's just a little

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<v S2>bit of noise. But it wouldn't be the biggest surprise

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<v S2>that first home buyers might be a little reticent at

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<v S2>the moment, given how much like it's hard to open

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<v S2>a paper or listen to a talkback radio star talking about,

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<v S2>oh my God, end of days or oh my God,

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<v S2>how affordable. A lot of conflicting advice for first home

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<v S2>buyers who are on the precipice of diving into their

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<v S2>probably their biggest personal investment ever.

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<v S1>But like you said, I mean, lots of a slide,

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<v S1>I guess. In mortgage applications, the NAB reported a 15%

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<v S1>slide in those applications, the ANZ at 12% dip and

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<v S1>the Commonwealth Bank 15% drop in loan applications, uh, and

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<v S1>a 28% plunge in applications from investors. So bigger than

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<v S1>expected declines. Is that right? Even though they were expected

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<v S1>to decline, given that the reserve Bank had begun lifting

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<v S1>interest rates earlier this year?

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<v S2>Yeah, no one was really sure in terms of how

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<v S2>many investors would come out of the market. And we

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<v S2>don't know how long term this is, because on Friday,

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<v S2>the Bureau of Stats, which actually tries to collect information

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<v S2>on every mortgage that gets issued, they also showed a

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<v S2>fairly sizable fall in the June quarter. So that's covering

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<v S2>the like the 6 or 7 weeks from between the

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<v S2>May budget being released and the end of the quarter.

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<v S2>But it also picked up a sizable increase, in fact,

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<v S2>to record levels, the number of mortgages taken out by

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<v S2>investors to build new homes. Now, that was also part

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<v S2>and parcel of the government's changes. Like the most important

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<v S2>in this case is the negative gearing one, which is

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<v S2>you can negatively gear as long as you build a

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<v S2>new house. So you can. These are preliminary. So I'm

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<v S2>really reticent to go, oh my God, we've got absolute

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<v S2>proof of everything. It's like seeing a video of a

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<v S2>Sasquatch wandering around, uh, parts of Northern America. Uh, let's

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<v S2>get a bit more evidence in before we. We declare

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<v S2>that sasquatches are real. Uh, next we'll be talking about yetis. Um,

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<v S2>but there is a preliminary sign that that's working as intended.

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<v S2>Of course, all the big banks have noted this. You've

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<v S2>still got the reserve Bank. Uh, its rate rises now

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<v S2>rate increases take between 12 and 18 months to fully

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<v S2>work their way through an economy. So they've only been

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<v S2>they've only increased them between February and May. So we

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<v S2>have still got a long way to go on that one.

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<v S2>And the other, of course, is the flow on flow

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<v S2>on impact from the war, what it's done to petrol prices.

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<v S2>So petrol is back over $2 a litre in just

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<v S2>about every capital city at the moment. We can see

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<v S2>what's happening there. Like we've had a huge increase in

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<v S2>the number of people buying electric vehicles. So that is

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<v S2>churning around in the in the in the background as well.

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<v S2>I suspect between you and I, Sam, that there are

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<v S2>some people who've pulled out of the housing market but

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<v S2>are using their cash to change over into an EV.

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<v S2>I would not surprise me because EVs, some of the

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<v S2>higher end ones are not cheap. But we've actually had

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<v S2>a record number of vehicles being new, new vehicles being

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<v S2>bought over the last three months, and half of them

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<v S2>have been EVs. So that is telling us something that's

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<v S2>going on in the economy as well.

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<v S4>Okay. And you mentioned.

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<v S1>Yetis and sasquatches just there. So I wanted to ask

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<v S1>you about what is possibly the ultimate sort of, um,

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<v S1>confirmation of the Yeti or the great white Sasquatch, which is,

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<v S1>of course, watching to see if the housing bubble is

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<v S1>finally starting to burst. Now, this is a game we've

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<v S1>all played for, I don't know, 30 years or so.

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<v S1>So is it finally coming to pass all of this

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<v S1>data you've walked us through? Is it happening? Is the

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<v S1>bubble finally starting to burst?

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<v S2>Look, I want to I want a hair sample. I

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<v S2>want to be able to talk to the Sasquatch first

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<v S2>before I declare, I think Shane Oliver, the AMP chief economist,

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<v S2>talks about the property super cycle that has been running

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<v S2>since 1996 and since 1996 we've had, well, it's a

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<v S2>450 500% increase, huge blowout in the sizes of mortgages

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<v S2>like the Bureau of Stats. Data actually showed. Yep. That

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<v S2>the size of new mortgages actually come down, came down

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<v S2>over the last three months. Of course, the average is

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<v S2>still $841,000 in New South Wales. Um, and so if

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<v S2>you discount non Sydney you're looking at more than $1 million. Uh,

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<v S2>average new sized mortgage. So whether it's finally come to

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<v S2>an end. Look, uh, you and I will have to

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<v S2>go out into the bush and keep looking for our

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<v S2>our unusual animals, because, look, I'd love to say it,

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<v S2>but I'm not sure. I'm not sure you can say

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<v S2>it quite yet.

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<v S5>After the break.

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<v S2>More than 60% of people actually support lower house prices,

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<v S2>and those who are opposed is around 10%.

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<v S1>But there has, of course, like you've said earlier, there's

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<v S1>been this sizable decline in investors taking out home applications.

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<v S1>We haven't seen a rate rise in a bit. So

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<v S1>is now the best time for a first home buyer

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<v S1>to get into the market?

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<v S2>Was it? Matt Coman? The head of CBA actually said ah,

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<v S2>over the next 6 to 12 months might actually be

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<v S2>the prime time. Of course, if that happens, you have

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<v S2>more first home buyers coming into the market that they'll

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<v S2>push up the price, particularly at the bottom end of

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<v S2>the market. And so the prices may not fall as far. Um,

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<v S2>this is you're into the whole argument about affordability. And

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<v S2>there are some who like the political argument is very

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<v S2>weird at the moment where all sides of politics profess. Yes,

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<v S2>we're worried about our first home buyers, but they don't

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<v S2>want actually say house prices have to fall. Now our

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<v S2>resolve political monitor. I have been asking for the last

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<v S2>three months whether people can what their feelings are towards

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<v S2>a fall in house prices. And this has been interesting

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<v S2>because it is it has not changed. And it's more

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<v S2>than 60% of people actually support lower house prices. And

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<v S2>those who are opposed is around 10%. And we've been

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<v S2>asking this consistently, and we're getting the same answers across

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<v S2>every sort of voter, like labor coalition One Nation. They're like,

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<v S2>it's more than I think it's 54% of One Nation

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<v S2>supporters say, yep, happy with house prices to fall and 16%

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<v S2>opposed Greens. It's 68 supportive, 5% opposed. Like, I don't

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<v S2>know how many times we can ask this question and

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<v S2>think the answer will change. Like if we went back

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<v S2>to the 1890s and asked Melburnians whether they want to

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<v S2>see house prices continue to fall, they might have had

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<v S2>a different perspective because housing had got expensive at that

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<v S2>point of time, but it was tied up with a

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<v S2>big speculative bubble that filtered right through the property, the

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<v S2>financial system in Melbourne at the time. This one is

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<v S2>a bit different in terms of. This is all about affordability.

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<v S2>This is all about whether people have a chance of

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<v S2>getting into a home tie in. What's going on with

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<v S2>the rental market, of course. And like we've seen, there's

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<v S2>been some absolute terrible reporting, not in this masthead, of course,

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<v S2>but this commentary about rents went straight up like the

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<v S2>week after the budget was announced because investors decided, right,

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<v S2>I'm not going to be able to negatively gear if

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<v S2>you've got a if you've got a landlord who's making

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<v S2>a change on something that they were actually protected from. Well,

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<v S2>I think take it up with the local tenancy advisory

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<v S2>organizations at the state level because you're being sold an

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<v S2>absolute pup.

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<v S4>And Shane, just to wrap up, I wanted to.

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<v S1>Ask you how you think we're going to be faring

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<v S1>with regards to the reserve Bank inflicting another interest rate

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<v S1>rise on us, because last week the bank held the

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<v S1>cash rate steady for a second successive meeting. And the

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<v S1>reserve Bank governor, Michele Bullock, she made some comments last week.

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<v S1>So what can we read into those?

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<v S2>Look, we could delve into the ins and outs of

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<v S2>monetary policy and communication, which I think this is really interesting.

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<v S2>Michelle Bullock sounded as if like, I thought she was

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<v S2>like a newspaper holding a rolled up newspaper, talking to

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<v S2>a dog, saying, you just wait, I'll get you.

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<v S6>So we will need still need to see some further

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<v S6>progress before the board can be confident that we are

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<v S6>going to get inflation back to target. With current monetary

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<v S6>policy settings, the board will raise interest rates further if

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<v S6>that is what is required to bring inflation down in

0:13:37.010 --> 0:13:40.210
<v S6>a timely way, the board will be closely watching for

0:13:40.210 --> 0:13:45.010
<v S6>evidence of upside risks to inflation materializing. Now, I understand

0:13:45.010 --> 0:13:47.410
<v S6>this is a difficult period for some households.

0:13:47.770 --> 0:13:50.809
<v S2>In central banking terms. There's a there's a term for that.

0:13:50.809 --> 0:13:57.770
<v S2>It's called jawboning. And Jawboning is talking really solidly, either

0:13:58.130 --> 0:14:03.540
<v S2>hawkishly or dovish but not actually moving rates because. And

0:14:03.580 --> 0:14:06.459
<v S2>like Michelle Bullock and lots of other central bankers, say

0:14:06.460 --> 0:14:09.500
<v S2>I've only got one lever to inflict pain upon people

0:14:09.500 --> 0:14:14.100
<v S2>or reduce pain. They don't Jawboning is is a very

0:14:14.100 --> 0:14:18.060
<v S2>well documented way, and I've seen Australian central bankers use

0:14:18.059 --> 0:14:21.300
<v S2>it as well. They've they've got their own pulpit to talk.

0:14:21.620 --> 0:14:25.300
<v S2>Michelle Bullock has a whole hour after the post, the

0:14:25.300 --> 0:14:29.340
<v S2>press conference to talk it up because the forecasts she

0:14:29.380 --> 0:14:33.660
<v S2>released actually say no, these guys have they've done for

0:14:33.660 --> 0:14:37.900
<v S2>rate rises. Start thinking about rate cuts next year. A

0:14:37.900 --> 0:14:42.980
<v S2>whole host of asterisks next to those. The war gets worse.

0:14:43.460 --> 0:14:47.700
<v S2>We get some other inflationary pulse. People decide to people

0:14:47.700 --> 0:14:50.700
<v S2>go out and striking, get huge wage rises all sorts

0:14:50.740 --> 0:14:53.980
<v S2>or the economy slows much faster than we than the

0:14:53.980 --> 0:14:58.340
<v S2>bank and others anticipate. Put it this way, the bank's

0:14:58.340 --> 0:15:02.620
<v S2>major last major forecasts were released first week of May,

0:15:02.860 --> 0:15:06.910
<v S2>and they said inflation is going to be 4.8% by June.

0:15:07.510 --> 0:15:12.830
<v S2>It was 3.8. Now, in macroeconomic terms, that's missing by

0:15:12.830 --> 0:15:15.510
<v S2>the side of a barn like they missed by a

0:15:15.550 --> 0:15:19.070
<v S2>long way. And there's really good reasons for that. And

0:15:19.070 --> 0:15:22.710
<v S2>they missed their other key forecasts as well. So I

0:15:22.710 --> 0:15:26.830
<v S2>think Bullock has used Jawboning to try and make sure

0:15:26.830 --> 0:15:31.670
<v S2>people don't get ahead of themselves, knowing that she may

0:15:31.670 --> 0:15:35.790
<v S2>not have to use rate rises, given that's how the

0:15:35.830 --> 0:15:37.830
<v S2>bank itself thinks the economy is going to play out

0:15:37.830 --> 0:15:39.390
<v S2>over the next 12 months or so.

0:15:39.710 --> 0:15:42.390
<v S1>So her jawboning, that's her way of saying, just you wait,

0:15:42.390 --> 0:15:46.310
<v S1>you better not go crazy on the spending. Otherwise I'm

0:15:46.350 --> 0:15:47.910
<v S1>going to hit you with a rate rise.

0:15:48.110 --> 0:15:52.190
<v S2>Yep. Exactly. Exactly. And look, you're living in fear immediately

0:15:52.190 --> 0:15:55.030
<v S2>after hearing Michelle Bullock say that. So it might have worked.

0:15:55.230 --> 0:16:00.390
<v S2>You put off that really expensive coffee, uh, last Wednesday

0:16:00.390 --> 0:16:03.150
<v S2>because oh my goodness. Michelle Bullock warned me if I

0:16:03.150 --> 0:16:06.800
<v S2>spend too much. So you can see like there's a

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:11.800
<v S2>lot of dealing with people's emotions because economics, it might

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:14.760
<v S2>it is called the gloomy science for a particular reason,

0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:19.640
<v S2>but it does deal a lot with consumer sentiment, business sentiment,

0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:23.480
<v S2>business emotion. That's that's why it's such a fascinating topic

0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:25.400
<v S2>to always talk to you, Sam, about.

0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:28.040
<v S1>Well, thank you so much, Shane, for your time.

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.160
<v S2>Look, and we've got a date to go looking for some,

0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:37.120
<v S2>some maybe fictional, maybe real, uh, wild animals out there

0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:37.760
<v S2>next time.

0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:38.960
<v S1>Till next time, Shane.

0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:40.080
<v S2>Until next time.

0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:59.440
<v S1>In other news, today, first of its kind scientific modelling

0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:03.760
<v S1>forecasts that more than 2.6 million Australians will be living

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:07.859
<v S1>with a cancer diagnosis by 2050, an increase of a

0:17:07.859 --> 0:17:12.680
<v S1>million people over the next 25 years, and a $5

0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.440
<v S1>million learn to Swim program will be launched today by

0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:19.680
<v S1>the federal government with Royal Life Saving Australia. The We

0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:22.920
<v S1>Swim program will be led by local community leaders, including

0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:27.320
<v S1>those from India, China and Korea, who understand the particular

0:17:27.320 --> 0:17:30.440
<v S1>risks and the culture of their own people. You can

0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:38.640
<v S1>read more at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was

0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:42.520
<v S1>produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills,

0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:46.440
<v S1>and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick.

0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:50.080
<v S1>If you like our show, follow The Morning Edition and

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:53.400
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0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:54.199
<v S1>for listening.