WEBVTT - Iran-Israel conflict fallout

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<v Speaker 1>So let's get to this. I had a chat with

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Benzali yesterday. He's a senior lecturer in international relations

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<v Speaker 1>at Monash School of Social Scientists, and I wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>know what the update was from his perspective in the

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<v Speaker 1>escalating Israel Iran conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, further developments as ever in terms of reprisals from

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<v Speaker 2>both sides, of course, but the wider diplomatic circumstances is

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<v Speaker 2>developing a little bit as well, in that President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>has put out something on his social media account telling

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<v Speaker 2>the citizens of Tehran, the capital of Iran, effectively, to evacuate.

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<v Speaker 2>So that means we should expect further Israeli tax and

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<v Speaker 2>obviously attacks on Tehran on this major population center. So

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<v Speaker 2>it looks like the conflict is going to continue to

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<v Speaker 2>escalate from here, at least for the next few days.

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<v Speaker 3>How involved were America getting now, so this is a

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<v Speaker 3>little hard to tell.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think the Trump administrations basic instinct on

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<v Speaker 2>this is to appear to be at arms length, but

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<v Speaker 2>they're clearly, very very closely in touch with the Israelis.

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<v Speaker 2>They had advanced warning of the attack. Trump has not

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<v Speaker 2>given public approval or sort of green the attack. As such,

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<v Speaker 2>but also isn't criticizing the Israelis in so doing either.

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<v Speaker 2>So they're clearly across the details of it, but they're

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<v Speaker 2>certainly not involved. There's no American military involvement at this

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<v Speaker 2>stage anything like that, and I expect that to remain

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<v Speaker 2>the case. The other thing that has developed it over

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<v Speaker 2>the days gone on. At this G seven meeting, it

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<v Speaker 2>was actually the French President Emmanuel Makrong has said to

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<v Speaker 2>reporters that apparently the Trump administration is trying to brok

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<v Speaker 2>us some kind of ceasefire between the two, but we

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<v Speaker 2>don't really have any details on that or any sense

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<v Speaker 2>of the likelihood of that coming off.

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<v Speaker 1>I read that the USS Nimitz was heading towards that region.

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<v Speaker 1>Would that be used in a defensive role.

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<v Speaker 3>That's my assumption.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, some other forces have also been moved towards the region,

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<v Speaker 2>including some anti drone forces that were destined for Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>They're really going to the region to shore up the

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<v Speaker 2>defenses around US military bases and other military assets in

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<v Speaker 2>the region, to ensure that in its response to Israel's

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<v Speaker 2>attacks and its retaliations, Iran doesn't target US forces in

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<v Speaker 2>the region.

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<v Speaker 3>And we've seen UK support. How much more will they

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<v Speaker 3>get involved?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the British are in a very similar position.

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<v Speaker 2>So they too have military bases in the region, so

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<v Speaker 2>they're moving some forces there essentially for the same purpose,

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<v Speaker 2>to effectively deter Iran from attacking anything other than Israeli targets.

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<v Speaker 1>At this stage, what's the purpose of evacuating all of

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<v Speaker 1>these Iranian citizens?

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<v Speaker 3>Do you think?

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<v Speaker 2>It's not entirely clear. Israel III has issued warnings today,

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<v Speaker 2>not dissimilar to how it's issued some of the warning

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<v Speaker 2>warnings ahead of bombings of Palestinian areas in the Gaza strip.

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<v Speaker 2>This is really about trying to appear to be in

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<v Speaker 2>minimizing civilian casualties. From one are very large scale attacks,

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<v Speaker 2>clearly what they're going to be in densely populated civilian areas.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think we should expect further fairly large scale

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<v Speaker 2>attacks in the coming sort of hours or over the

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<v Speaker 2>next twenty four hours or so.

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<v Speaker 1>And do you think Israel underestimated Iran's ability to respond?

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<v Speaker 3>Not so much.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the Israelis will have anticipated this. Basically, both

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<v Speaker 2>sides have known that this was a relatively likely outcome

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<v Speaker 2>for years. Really, the Israelis have talked about engaging a

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<v Speaker 2>military strike against Iran's nuclear program for years. They've been

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<v Speaker 2>talked out of it by the Americans on a number

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<v Speaker 2>of occasions. It also fits with a wider pattern of activity.

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<v Speaker 2>The Israelis did this against a nuclear reactor in Iraq

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<v Speaker 2>in nineteen eighty one. They did it to Syria in

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and seven, so Israel has sort of always

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<v Speaker 2>favored the use of military forces and sabotage and targeted assassinations.

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<v Speaker 2>They also assassinated a series of Iranian nuclear scientists about

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<v Speaker 2>a decade ago, so this is no surprise to the Iranians,

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<v Speaker 2>who have obviously therefore been preparing their response, and therefore

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<v Speaker 2>the Israelis knew that the Iranians would be responding as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So in a sense, both sides of these attacks have

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<v Speaker 2>been quite extensive and relatively devastating, but nothing I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think will have greatly surprised either side, other than to

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<v Speaker 2>say the initial attacks by Israel were probably a little

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<v Speaker 2>more successful than the Iranians might have anticipated, particularly given

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<v Speaker 2>Israel's ability to get its intelligence forces Mossad forces into

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<v Speaker 2>an on Iranian soil beforehand to conduct sabotage operations. Against

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<v Speaker 2>some of Iran's anti aircraft capabilities to ensure that the

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli airplanes could fly in unimpeded and hit those targets.

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<v Speaker 1>And this talk of the Iranian nuclear facilities being severely damaged,

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<v Speaker 1>if not destroyed. But there's also talk and speculation of

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<v Speaker 1>a dirty bomb. Do you think there's anything in that?

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<v Speaker 2>To be honest, I don't. And so the idea of

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<v Speaker 2>a dirty bomb is this is a conventional explosive that

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<v Speaker 2>spreads radioactive material, so it's not a nuclear explosion, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's just an explosion that basically has a nuclear material

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<v Speaker 2>packed around it. I don't see the prospects of that

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<v Speaker 2>in the short term. I think that's fairly unlikely in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of the damage to the Iranian nuclear facilities. Look,

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<v Speaker 2>Iran hadn't yet developed the nuclear weapons, so this is

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<v Speaker 2>a preemptive strike to prevent Iran from doing so. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>So it's not that nuclear weapons have been knocked out,

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<v Speaker 2>But the question becomes how much damage of the Israeli's

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<v Speaker 2>done to these sites? How far back has this put

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<v Speaker 2>the program? So if Iran now like Iraq did after

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<v Speaker 2>it was a taken by Israeli in eighty one, if

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<v Speaker 2>it decides to really double down and really redouble its

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<v Speaker 2>efforts and do the sort of the fast breakout to

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<v Speaker 2>a nuclear weapons capability. The question is what's their capability

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<v Speaker 2>to do that?

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<v Speaker 3>Now?

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<v Speaker 2>How damaged are these facilities and a number of them

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<v Speaker 2>are very deep underground and they've been hardened under multiple

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<v Speaker 2>layers of concrete because the Iranians have been anticipating this

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<v Speaker 2>for some years. So we won't know the answer to

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<v Speaker 2>this for some time, and there are conflicting reports. The

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<v Speaker 2>Israelis are saying they've destroyed lots and they've caused all

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<v Speaker 2>sorts of damage to the underground facilities. There's been some

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<v Speaker 2>statements from the International Atomic Energy Agency saying they've got

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<v Speaker 2>no reports of that so far, and they're in touch

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<v Speaker 2>with operators at the facilities.

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<v Speaker 3>So we just won't know for a while.

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<v Speaker 2>But that's going to be the kind of six million

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<v Speaker 2>dollar question over the next couple of weeks, just how

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<v Speaker 2>successful have those attacks been on the deep hardened underground facilities.

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<v Speaker 1>The US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the

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<v Speaker 1>US is taking up a defensive position as this conflict

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<v Speaker 1>rages on.

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<v Speaker 3>Are they talking about a defensive position?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think for Israel or a defensive position for

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<v Speaker 1>their own bases in the area.

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<v Speaker 2>My sense is at the moment is the latter. They're

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<v Speaker 2>just trying to defend their own interests here. At the

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<v Speaker 2>same time that the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio

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<v Speaker 2>has been making these repeated statements saying we're not involved

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<v Speaker 2>in these strikes, and I think President Trump has repeated

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<v Speaker 2>that as well. So I don't think the US is

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<v Speaker 2>going to want to be seen to be aiding Israel directly.

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<v Speaker 3>In that sense.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think they're going to see American forces being involved.

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<v Speaker 2>It's possible that they may become involved at some point

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of shooting down incoming rockets and so forth,

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<v Speaker 2>but I think for now they're focused more on defending

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<v Speaker 2>their own military assets in the region.