WEBVTT - The Sunday Showdown with Michael Shoebridge

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<v Speaker 1>Now on weekends the Sunday Sweet looking at the stories

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<v Speaker 1>of the week. Yeah, wow, what a week on planet Earthday.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran and Israel appear to be on the brink of

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<v Speaker 1>a really large scale conflict, if that isn't already playing out.

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<v Speaker 1>The Prime Minister set to meet with Donald Trump at

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<v Speaker 1>the G seven in Canada this week. I imagine that Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump will say, hey, we're happy to help, but any

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<v Speaker 1>chance you could do your bit in terms of defense

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<v Speaker 1>and of course the Aucus, the alliance that underpins the

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<v Speaker 1>future of our national security, is now under review. What

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<v Speaker 1>does that mean? So who better to help us understand

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<v Speaker 1>all of this than the founder and director of Strategic

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<v Speaker 1>Analysis Australia, Michael shue Bridge, who joins me on the line.

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<v Speaker 1>Morning Michael, Morning, Luke, very well, thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for your time. Always enjoy our chats and I appreciate

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<v Speaker 1>your expertise in all of these areas. I guess we

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<v Speaker 1>start with Israel and run a new wave of attacks.

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<v Speaker 1>Have seen the talks about nuclear canceled quite obviously. First off,

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<v Speaker 1>was Israel justified? Were they right in starting something? Though?

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<v Speaker 1>Living in the fear of Iran doing something out of

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<v Speaker 1>control with nuclear they'd be on edge all the time obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>if they're not on edge about a whole range of

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<v Speaker 1>other things.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, the Iranian nuclear program is decades old, so

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<v Speaker 2>Israel has always wanted it to be ended, and the

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations that the Americans were having when Iran were clearly

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<v Speaker 2>not going to do that. And this same week that

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<v Speaker 2>Israel began these attacks, the International Atomic Energy Agency formally

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<v Speaker 2>declared Aramas in breach of all its reporting obligations and

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<v Speaker 2>had enough nuclear material to make nine weapons. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think the Israeli calculation was there was it's not going

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<v Speaker 2>to be a better time to try and stop Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's why they've started. But it's still an incredibly

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<v Speaker 2>hard problem. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, the US, as I understand it, providing some assistance

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<v Speaker 1>to Israel, protecting them from the missiles and the like.

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<v Speaker 1>And we've seen Israel get some success, certainly around the

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear plant, and I think today we're being told that

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<v Speaker 1>they've had a crack at some of their other fossil

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<v Speaker 1>fuel stores. And I guess this goes on for a

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<v Speaker 1>matter of days or weeks or months. I guess I'm

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<v Speaker 1>trying to ask you, Michael, if you put the crystal

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<v Speaker 1>ball into this. What you end up with is there

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<v Speaker 1>a time where Israel can claim victory? Is a regime

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<v Speaker 1>change in a run, how does it play out? What's

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<v Speaker 1>the endgame for both countries?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that is pretty hard to see. I would say,

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<v Speaker 2>you're right, but this is not a matter of a

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<v Speaker 2>war that's going to be over in a few days.

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<v Speaker 2>It's going to go on at least for weeks. The

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<v Speaker 2>prospect of regime change during the middle of a war,

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<v Speaker 2>I think is very very low in history. When countries

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<v Speaker 2>are at war, usually people sort of rally around the flag,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think we'll probably see some of that. Even

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<v Speaker 2>though the Iranian regime is deeply unpopular, it's different when

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<v Speaker 2>you're being attacked. The Americans are trying not to get

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<v Speaker 2>dragged into this beyond helping defend Israel. But from the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian point of view, if you're helping defend Israel, you're

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<v Speaker 2>part of the problem. So that the prospects of an

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<v Speaker 2>escalation are there, bringing the Americans in more. And the

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<v Speaker 2>bit that still doesn't make sense to me is what's

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<v Speaker 2>the Israeli plan to deal with the buried underground nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>facilities that Iran has Because places like fourdoh An underground

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<v Speaker 2>site and the tarns An underground and Richmond site. You

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<v Speaker 2>can bomb the above ground bits as much as you like,

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<v Speaker 2>but you don't damn underground.

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<v Speaker 1>So what countries nearby are likely to assist Iran? I

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<v Speaker 1>guess where I'm headed now is how far will this expand?

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<v Speaker 1>Is there an obvious I mean, apart from the US

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<v Speaker 1>trying to help Israel defend itself, who else gets involved?

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<v Speaker 2>Nobody? Because since the seventh of October Hamas terror attacks

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<v Speaker 2>on Israel, Israel has dismantled the proxies, the armed proxies

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<v Speaker 2>that Iran had built to threaten Israel for decades. So

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas and Hezbollah were its key weapons, and it had

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<v Speaker 2>militias operating in Syria two that had Iranian missiles and

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<v Speaker 2>rockets to specifically to attack Israel. That's all pretty much

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<v Speaker 2>gone now. So the Iranians are by themselves, and there's

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<v Speaker 2>no way countries like Saudi Arabia or Qatar or the

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<v Speaker 2>United Arab Emirates want to pile in on a run site. Here.

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<v Speaker 2>The friend that Iran does have turns out to be

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<v Speaker 2>Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and that's because Putin has been

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<v Speaker 2>supported by Iran with drones to fight in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to get to Orcus, and I guess we

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<v Speaker 1>start by the obvious. How serious is the review by

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<v Speaker 1>the US into Orcus. Should we be sitting here at home,

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<v Speaker 1>knowing how reliant we are on the US saying oh,

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<v Speaker 1>we've got a serious problem here.

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<v Speaker 2>It is a serious review. The fact that it's meant

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<v Speaker 2>to only take thirty days means it's not a deep one.

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<v Speaker 2>But the issues are pretty obvious and clear, and you've

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<v Speaker 2>put your finger on one of them. Luke. It's very

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<v Speaker 2>hard to say, hey, we're one of your closest allies America,

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<v Speaker 2>and we're so close on defense that we're spending two

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<v Speaker 2>percent of GDP on defense while you're spending three and

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<v Speaker 2>a half percent. But by the way, we would like

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear submarines out of your our own navy when you

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<v Speaker 2>don't have enough of them. I know we're still going

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<v Speaker 2>to only be spending two point three percent in ten years.

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<v Speaker 2>That is a pretty hard ask.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, that beautifully put so at home because I

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<v Speaker 1>want to have these plays out amongst Australian voters. If

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<v Speaker 1>because you could say, couldn't you Michael, that we've I

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to use the word bludging, but it seems like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we've we've we've ambled forward knowing that if

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<v Speaker 1>things got really serious, America would come and give us assistance.

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<v Speaker 1>But as Trump's made clear in his America First policies,

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<v Speaker 1>if that's the right way to put it, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll give you a hand. But you've got to be

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<v Speaker 1>half faired inking yourself. But does the average Australian voter

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<v Speaker 1>do you think are they persuaded by that? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we should be fair ink and we shouldn't just rely

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<v Speaker 1>on the US.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think this has all got bound up in

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<v Speaker 2>a whole lot of Australians dislike of Donald Trump and

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<v Speaker 2>a whole lot of the things he's done. And you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you look at America with the riots going on, the

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<v Speaker 2>big military parade, protest saying no King, and the kind

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<v Speaker 2>of aggression towards America's traditional friends and partners, and you

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<v Speaker 2>can sort of see why a bunch of Australians are saying, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I love it when mister Albanezi talks tough and says

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<v Speaker 2>he decides things and he's not going to be pushed

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<v Speaker 2>around by this guy. But is it really a source

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<v Speaker 2>of national pride to not do enough for our own

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<v Speaker 2>security and say to the Americans, no, it's my right

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<v Speaker 2>to spend two percent on defense and be even more

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<v Speaker 2>dependent on you. So don't try to push me about this.

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<v Speaker 2>To me, that doesn't make sense.

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<v Speaker 1>No, that's excellent analysis. That's exactly right, because you're right

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<v Speaker 1>to say that. He got up to say, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>will decide, almost like John Howard talked when he talked

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<v Speaker 1>about the boat paper, will decide what we'll spend on defense.

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<v Speaker 1>In other words, we'll do just a little bit here

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<v Speaker 1>and you will come. And I mean, if you're an

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<v Speaker 1>American looking on you be going, huh, that's not tough.

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<v Speaker 1>That's absolutely silly. I get so much from your analysis

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<v Speaker 1>and our conversations, Michael, and I guess I'm stuck on

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<v Speaker 1>a point that you raised before the break about Australia

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<v Speaker 1>not doing enough and looking tough and saying that we're

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<v Speaker 1>not doing enough. And I guess the question is how safe?

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<v Speaker 1>Is how safe are we? I guess is where I

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<v Speaker 1>want to get to here? Because people walk around thinking,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're just go and get a coffee, everything's great.

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<v Speaker 1>We hear everything that bad happens happens, it seems overseas.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess many Australians think, you know, best country in

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<v Speaker 1>the world, were safe? Here? Are we that naive? Is

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<v Speaker 1>that fair enough?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? I think we are still the best country in

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<v Speaker 2>the world. That's absolutely true, and we're lucky we live

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<v Speaker 2>in a safe part of the world. But even our

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<v Speaker 2>safe part of the world is more dangerous than I was.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you read this government and the previous government's

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<v Speaker 2>own documents, seems like the nation or defense strategy, you'll

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<v Speaker 2>hear that China is building a massive military, building a

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<v Speaker 2>large nuclear weapons stockpile, and it's not doing them for fun.

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<v Speaker 2>It's already using it's a military aggressively against countries like Japan,

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<v Speaker 2>the Philippines and Vietnam. And so the kind of you've

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<v Speaker 2>got to burrow into those documents because you don't hear

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<v Speaker 2>this from our political leaders. So the risks are real,

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<v Speaker 2>and something you're reading them as well is that our

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<v Speaker 2>geography no longer protects us as it did because of

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<v Speaker 2>new weapons, and that's long range missiles, but it's also

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<v Speaker 2>things like drones that can be used very creatively, as

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<v Speaker 2>we've seen the Ukrainians and the Israelis do now, and

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<v Speaker 2>China makes all of this stuff and supplies its military

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<v Speaker 2>with all of it, and it does want to take

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<v Speaker 2>Taiwan back, and it doesn't look like there's a peaceful option.

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<v Speaker 1>No, is that something that might happen?

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<v Speaker 2>Well?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that a reality? Is that something we cannot dismiss?

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<v Speaker 1>And is that far away from happening? I mean, you

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<v Speaker 1>hear from time to time the suggestion that it's imminent.

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<v Speaker 1>When will if it's inevitable, China try to retake back Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>We'll take back Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, this is interesting. I think the Chinese government, the

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<v Speaker 2>Communist Party, wants to tell the world it's inevitable. But

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<v Speaker 2>the reason they have to keep saying that is they

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<v Speaker 2>know that's not true. So far, they've been deterred from

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<v Speaker 2>doing it, and they've been deterred by American and allied

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<v Speaker 2>military power and doubts that Jin King has about his

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<v Speaker 2>own military. And both those things are still powerful. But

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<v Speaker 2>the problem is America and its allies look a bit

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<v Speaker 2>chaotic now and distracted. But the good news is China

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<v Speaker 2>keeps purging senior people that it's three, which doesn't give

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<v Speaker 2>them the Colgate ring of confidence. You know, I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's all about It's a bit like what we're saying

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<v Speaker 2>about mett Yahu and Iran. Will there be a better time? Is?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the question in she's mind.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, okay, fascinating. You talked about drones. Actually had a

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<v Speaker 1>drone manufacturer, the boss of a company from Victoria, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>on a few weeks ago, and they're doing great stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>And you hear about, as you mentioned, drones in Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>and elsewhere. And I end up saying this to myself,

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<v Speaker 1>why does it seem like we're spending all that we

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<v Speaker 1>have on submarines on the never never when we could,

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<v Speaker 1>like other countries around the world, arm ourselves with drones,

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<v Speaker 1>drones that fly and drones in the water and seemingly

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<v Speaker 1>be on the pace. Well what am I missing there?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think what you're missing is our government and

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<v Speaker 2>our defense is complete. This interest in equipping our military

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<v Speaker 2>with these things. They spend all their time talking about

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<v Speaker 2>why the time's not right. You know, anything I believe

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<v Speaker 2>now might be obsolete. Look, you know, it's not proven

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<v Speaker 2>how they'll be used best. We've got to develop concepts.

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<v Speaker 2>But the actual problem is it messes with their plan,

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<v Speaker 2>the defense plan that the government has endorsed and seems

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<v Speaker 2>perfectly happy with. Is what you talked about. It's spending

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<v Speaker 2>hundreds of billions of dollars on frigates and submarines that

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<v Speaker 2>do nothing to help our security for decades, and under

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<v Speaker 2>investing in a whole bunch of stuff that Australian companies

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<v Speaker 2>make and supply to other militaries. Right now. It is mystifying.

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<v Speaker 2>It is. It's the only explanation I have is that

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<v Speaker 2>the current leadership and the government and the Defense Department

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<v Speaker 2>don't believe their own words about the dangerous world wherein.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow, Michael, thank you so much for your time. I

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<v Speaker 1>appreciate it very much. Indeed, good on you. Good to

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<v Speaker 1>talk with you, mate. Michael Schubridge, Founder and Director of

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<v Speaker 1>Strategic Analysis Australia. You see, when you remove the politics

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<v Speaker 1>from these discussions, and I know that's difficult to do,

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<v Speaker 1>but when you do, when you talk about defense and

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<v Speaker 1>you then you know, you get down deep into some

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<v Speaker 1>of these issues. Like it is impressive, isn't it that

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<v Speaker 1>we've got these nuclear powers and marines coming sometime from

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<v Speaker 1>America our mate, and the UK or other mate, even

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<v Speaker 1>though they're going to cost you know, maybe half it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't nds's you think, oh, well, that's got to be good.

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<v Speaker 1>But the fact is that in the theaters of war

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<v Speaker 1>right now around the world, drones and other things are

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<v Speaker 1>a thing, Which is why I wanted to ask Michael,

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<v Speaker 1>why aren't they think for us we make the damn

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<v Speaker 1>things here? In fact, we make them here, we buy

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<v Speaker 1>a few of them, but around the world they buy

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<v Speaker 1>a heap of them. Well, what are we doing that's

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<v Speaker 1>so smart? And that the point Michael makes, which I

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<v Speaker 1>think is astonishing, is that they say the world's a

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<v Speaker 1>dangerous place. And I mean, you look at the headlines

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<v Speaker 1>today and of course do you think, yeah, well, bloody oath. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>if it's such a dangerous place, why aren't you arming

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<v Speaker 1>our army Air Force? Why aren't you doing something now?

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<v Speaker 1>Why do we have to wait a decade for a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of subs. I'm no genius in this space, but

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<v Speaker 1>I like to think I've got a bit of common sense.

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<v Speaker 1>And you look at what's in front of you, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think you're entitled to go huh.