1 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:07,840 S1: Only six days since the United States and Israel began 2 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:12,920 S1: bombing Iran. The destruction is mounting. More than 800 people 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:18,080 S1: have been killed, including Iranian schoolchildren and American service members. 4 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,480 S1: What will it take to stop this war and what 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,440 S1: might compel Donald Trump to end it if he can? 6 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:30,160 S1: I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris, and you're listening to Morning Edition 7 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:34,480 S1: from The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international 8 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,960 S1: and political editor Peter Hartcher on Trump's tactics and how 9 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:47,960 S1: his MAGA base is responding. It's March the 5th. Welcome, Peter, 10 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:49,080 S1: back to the podcast. 11 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:50,600 S2: Always a pleasure, Samantha. 12 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,960 S1: Okay, well, listen, it's been a few days since we 13 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,120 S1: last spoke about Iran. So can you briefly just take 14 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,480 S1: us through how far the chaos and violence has spread 15 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,120 S1: since the war began over the weekend? 16 00:01:01,050 --> 00:01:05,610 S2: Well, after decapitating the regime in Iran, the Americans and 17 00:01:05,610 --> 00:01:10,970 S2: Israelis have continued to bombard Iranian targets. The Iranians have 18 00:01:10,970 --> 00:01:14,810 S2: fired back and tried to hurt US bases and interests 19 00:01:14,810 --> 00:01:15,690 S2: wherever possible. 20 00:01:15,810 --> 00:01:18,490 S3: These details just breaking and that vision just coming into 21 00:01:18,490 --> 00:01:21,690 S3: the newsroom now. But this was a suspected Iranian drone 22 00:01:21,690 --> 00:01:25,729 S3: which has hit the US consulate in Dubai. It is 23 00:01:25,730 --> 00:01:27,890 S3: on fire, as you can see, from both Kuwait and 24 00:01:27,890 --> 00:01:31,569 S3: Saudi Arabia, increasing that pressure. And the IDF has said 25 00:01:31,569 --> 00:01:35,770 S3: that it's now operating in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah fired 26 00:01:35,770 --> 00:01:36,770 S3: rockets into Israel. 27 00:01:36,970 --> 00:01:40,810 S4: Panic, chaos and injuries at the Dubai airport overnight and 28 00:01:40,810 --> 00:01:46,050 S4: a Shahed drone striking a luxury hotel in Dubai's Palm Jumeirah. 29 00:01:47,850 --> 00:01:48,650 S5: Oh my God. 30 00:01:50,690 --> 00:01:55,690 S2: Casualties have been concentrated mostly in Iran. Some 800, so 31 00:01:55,690 --> 00:01:57,930 S2: far as we can tell, according to the Red Crescent. 32 00:01:58,650 --> 00:02:06,090 S2: Ten Israelis, six dead American service personnel, 52 Lebanese. We 33 00:02:06,090 --> 00:02:09,490 S2: shouldn't be surprised about this aspect because the Iranians promised 34 00:02:09,490 --> 00:02:11,810 S2: to do this. They promised that they would retaliate against 35 00:02:11,850 --> 00:02:14,410 S2: the US and Israel, but they also said that they 36 00:02:14,410 --> 00:02:19,570 S2: would hit other Gulf states that were siding with America. 37 00:02:19,810 --> 00:02:25,489 S2: And they have they've hit every Gulf state. I don't 38 00:02:25,490 --> 00:02:29,490 S2: think it's intelligent strategy for the Iranians to start bombing 39 00:02:29,490 --> 00:02:33,170 S2: and droning, if that's a verb, are all the Gulf 40 00:02:33,169 --> 00:02:37,450 S2: states because it only alienates them and brings them into 41 00:02:37,450 --> 00:02:40,250 S2: a war they were trying to stay out of. Apart 42 00:02:40,250 --> 00:02:43,010 S2: from the fact that it's crippled global aviation because so 43 00:02:43,010 --> 00:02:48,170 S2: much of it passes through the UAE. Plus, of course, 44 00:02:48,210 --> 00:02:52,330 S2: the effect of the Iranians closing the Strait of Hormuz 45 00:02:53,250 --> 00:02:56,490 S2: has been to push up the global oil price. So far, 46 00:02:56,650 --> 00:03:01,419 S2: the effect has been around about 10%, so it's not 47 00:03:01,419 --> 00:03:06,340 S2: catastrophic by any means. So that's an aspect, the whole 48 00:03:06,340 --> 00:03:10,300 S2: economic aspect, which is then translated into modest, so far 49 00:03:10,340 --> 00:03:14,859 S2: contained stock market damage and investor damage around the world 50 00:03:15,340 --> 00:03:18,180 S2: as well. So that's the state of play around about now. 51 00:03:18,340 --> 00:03:20,780 S1: And there's still a lot of chaos. You've just written, 52 00:03:21,180 --> 00:03:23,619 S1: many people have written because there's so much chaos around 53 00:03:23,620 --> 00:03:26,620 S1: what's actually what this war is all about. Right. But 54 00:03:26,620 --> 00:03:29,220 S1: you've actually spoken to two people with it has to 55 00:03:29,220 --> 00:03:31,540 S1: be said inside knowledge about what wars can accomplish and 56 00:03:31,540 --> 00:03:36,100 S1: specifically about how Donald Trump thinks about military strategy. So 57 00:03:36,100 --> 00:03:38,660 S1: what did they tell you about what Trump very well 58 00:03:38,660 --> 00:03:42,060 S1: might be thinking now, and whether this is indeed about 59 00:03:42,060 --> 00:03:44,460 S1: regime change, as he has sometimes said it was. And 60 00:03:44,460 --> 00:03:48,020 S1: then sometimes, of course, he says it's about completely other matters, 61 00:03:48,020 --> 00:03:50,500 S1: as do members of his cabinet. It changes by the day. 62 00:03:50,540 --> 00:03:55,820 S2: Yeah, well, there's chaos about his intentions and ultimate outcome 63 00:03:55,820 --> 00:03:58,820 S2: because he sows the the chaos. He is the one 64 00:03:59,100 --> 00:04:03,540 S2: who continuously changes the rationale. On Saturday, he told the 65 00:04:03,540 --> 00:04:07,180 S2: Washington Post, I only want freedom for the Iranian people. 66 00:04:07,500 --> 00:04:09,060 S2: He said that's the only thing he wants. 67 00:04:09,140 --> 00:04:12,060 S6: Me to the great, proud people of Iran. I say 68 00:04:12,060 --> 00:04:15,260 S6: tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. 69 00:04:15,820 --> 00:04:20,020 S6: Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. 70 00:04:20,020 --> 00:04:23,739 S6: Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take 71 00:04:23,740 --> 00:04:26,859 S6: over your government. It will be yours to take. 72 00:04:27,100 --> 00:04:30,060 S2: But on other occasions, he said he wanted to pre-empt 73 00:04:30,220 --> 00:04:33,099 S2: an Iranian strike on the US or Israel. 74 00:04:33,740 --> 00:04:37,060 S6: This was our last, best chance to strike. What we're 75 00:04:37,060 --> 00:04:41,099 S6: doing right now and eliminate the intolerable threats posed by 76 00:04:41,100 --> 00:04:44,180 S6: this sick and sinister regime regime. 77 00:04:44,940 --> 00:04:47,420 S2: He said he wanted to prevent the proliferation of nuclear 78 00:04:47,420 --> 00:04:53,500 S2: technology and fuel beyond Iran. He wanted to change the 79 00:04:53,500 --> 00:04:56,990 S2: regime in Iran. He wanted to replace the head of 80 00:04:56,990 --> 00:05:00,550 S2: the regime in Iran. So this is why there's so 81 00:05:00,550 --> 00:05:07,270 S2: much confusion. So I thought, well, how do we make 82 00:05:07,270 --> 00:05:09,990 S2: sense of this? So yes, I talked to the geopolitical strategist, 83 00:05:09,990 --> 00:05:14,270 S2: John Bolton, who was Donald Trump's national security adviser for 84 00:05:14,270 --> 00:05:17,510 S2: a year and a half in Trump's first term. Bolton 85 00:05:17,710 --> 00:05:23,270 S2: is a well known Republican Hawk diplomat advisor who for 86 00:05:23,270 --> 00:05:26,670 S2: 25 years has been urging American presidents to assault Iran. 87 00:05:27,589 --> 00:05:30,950 S2: And now that he's getting his way, he's worried that 88 00:05:30,990 --> 00:05:33,990 S2: Trump is about to bungle the whole thing. And so 89 00:05:34,029 --> 00:05:37,469 S2: I put to him, what is Trump's plan? You've worked 90 00:05:37,470 --> 00:05:39,710 S2: with him. He's talked about all these issues many times 91 00:05:39,710 --> 00:05:41,870 S2: with Trump. When he worked for him. He said, I 92 00:05:41,870 --> 00:05:43,590 S2: don't think he has a plan. He said there is 93 00:05:43,589 --> 00:05:47,469 S2: no plan. And evidence for that partly is the continuously 94 00:05:47,950 --> 00:05:51,950 S2: changing rationales that Trump offers. And of course, Trump saying that, 95 00:05:52,470 --> 00:05:54,150 S2: you know, on the Saturday he said it could be 96 00:05:54,150 --> 00:05:55,630 S2: over in 2 or 3 days. And then the next 97 00:05:55,630 --> 00:05:58,390 S2: day he said it's 4 or 5 weeks and any 98 00:05:58,390 --> 00:06:01,510 S2: variation in between. He also said on Saturday, the Iranians 99 00:06:01,510 --> 00:06:03,390 S2: are ready to talk and I'm ready to talk to them. 100 00:06:04,110 --> 00:06:04,870 S2: But the Iranians. 101 00:06:05,029 --> 00:06:05,349 S1: The bombs are. 102 00:06:05,350 --> 00:06:07,790 S2: Flying. But yeah, while the bombs are flying. And but then, 103 00:06:08,070 --> 00:06:09,909 S2: you know, it hadn't even been 24 hours. 104 00:06:10,150 --> 00:06:12,589 S1: But negotiations don't tend to go well when. When bombs 105 00:06:12,589 --> 00:06:13,109 S1: are flying. 106 00:06:13,150 --> 00:06:16,190 S2: Well, Mick Ryan, the other the military strategist, I talked to, 107 00:06:16,230 --> 00:06:21,750 S2: retired Australian general and a widely respected military strategist and commentator. 108 00:06:22,750 --> 00:06:26,630 S2: He said that to him, the Iranian retaliation looked like 109 00:06:26,630 --> 00:06:30,550 S2: what he called a dead hand retaliatory strike. And this 110 00:06:30,550 --> 00:06:34,510 S2: was a doctrine that was adopted during the Cold War. 111 00:06:34,550 --> 00:06:36,510 S2: In the event of a nuclear strike that wipes out 112 00:06:36,510 --> 00:06:40,990 S2: the leadership. There is a pre-programmed retaliatory set of strikes 113 00:06:41,230 --> 00:06:45,789 S2: that proceed almost automatically because it's called dead hand, because 114 00:06:45,790 --> 00:06:48,750 S2: the leader is dead. And so a preset series of 115 00:06:48,750 --> 00:06:52,110 S2: retaliations occurs. And that's he said, that's what this pattern 116 00:06:52,310 --> 00:06:56,120 S2: of Iranian retaliation looks like. He said. There's no point 117 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,440 S2: talking to the Iranians while that's going on. And he said, 118 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,520 S2: there's certainly no point sitting down with them and they're 119 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,840 S2: talking to you about their intentions and there's missiles screaming overhead. 120 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:09,600 S2: So these are the this is the array of Trump rationales, 121 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:15,600 S2: Trump timetables all conflicting with each other. Another piece of 122 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:20,480 S2: evidence that John Bolton offered in arguing his point that 123 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:22,360 S2: there is no plan. Trump just has no idea what 124 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,000 S2: he's doing. Minute to minute is the chaos in the 125 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,600 S2: oil market. Bolton said to me, and I didn't have 126 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,600 S2: space to use this in the in my column. But 127 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:36,480 S2: he said to me that, uh, all of the endangerment 128 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,720 S2: to oil facilities and to oil transiting through the Strait 129 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,960 S2: of Hormuz was entirely predictable, had been anticipated and war 130 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,400 S2: gamed by the US military in all sorts of scenarios 131 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,120 S2: for decades, and should not have come to a surprise 132 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,960 S2: as a surprise to anybody. He said, but there's obviously 133 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:55,610 S2: no plan because we see nothing out of the US. 134 00:07:55,610 --> 00:07:59,210 S2: And then in the last 24 hours we heard Trump say, oh, well, 135 00:07:59,210 --> 00:08:01,730 S2: there's a problem. Well, the, the, the US Navy will 136 00:08:01,770 --> 00:08:05,690 S2: escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. So, you know, 137 00:08:05,730 --> 00:08:08,930 S2: this sort of ex post facto reaction to try to 138 00:08:08,970 --> 00:08:13,850 S2: patch up problems which really were quite foreseeable. So I'm 139 00:08:13,850 --> 00:08:17,170 S2: afraid the bad news is that somebody who knows Trump 140 00:08:17,170 --> 00:08:21,010 S2: is thinking the Iran scenarios, and the entire back story 141 00:08:21,050 --> 00:08:23,770 S2: says Trump has no idea what he's doing. And Mick 142 00:08:23,770 --> 00:08:28,290 S2: Ryan separately came to the same conclusion. He said the 143 00:08:28,290 --> 00:08:32,209 S2: initial military phase, which was led by the Israelis and 144 00:08:32,210 --> 00:08:35,250 S2: followed by the Americans, he said, was exquisite. As a 145 00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:38,609 S2: professional military planner, he said, I would call that exquisite 146 00:08:38,850 --> 00:08:41,250 S2: in its precision and timing and effect. 147 00:08:41,290 --> 00:08:44,050 S1: Yeah, the military intelligence that obviously they acquired in order 148 00:08:44,050 --> 00:08:46,809 S1: to know where all those leaders were going to be. Yes. Yeah. 149 00:08:46,809 --> 00:08:48,450 S1: It was incredible in that sense. 150 00:08:48,850 --> 00:08:52,250 S2: Yes. So, you know, the Israelis have long had a 151 00:08:52,290 --> 00:08:56,050 S2: global comparative advantage, shall we call it, with intelligence? The 152 00:08:56,050 --> 00:08:58,690 S2: Americans have long had a global comparative advantage with delivering 153 00:08:58,690 --> 00:09:01,570 S2: large quantities of firepower. The two. The two came together 154 00:09:01,570 --> 00:09:04,570 S2: with great effect in the first 24 hours. Mick Ryan 155 00:09:04,570 --> 00:09:07,290 S2: gave them credit. She said it was exquisite. He said 156 00:09:07,290 --> 00:09:09,410 S2: but the question is what comes next? And that's the 157 00:09:09,410 --> 00:09:11,810 S2: hard part. He said there's no evidence of a plan. 158 00:09:12,250 --> 00:09:15,290 S2: He said the important part now, and this is a 159 00:09:15,290 --> 00:09:19,689 S2: military man, a career army officer here speaking. He said 160 00:09:19,809 --> 00:09:23,810 S2: the critical part is the politics, the economics and the society. 161 00:09:23,970 --> 00:09:28,170 S2: There is nothing happening there. Trump the administration isn't briefing 162 00:09:28,170 --> 00:09:29,890 S2: the Congress. Nobody's talking about it. 163 00:09:30,250 --> 00:09:32,810 S1: Well, I wanted to ask you there about geopolitics, Peter, 164 00:09:32,809 --> 00:09:35,090 S1: because and especially with what you just said about the 165 00:09:35,090 --> 00:09:37,449 S1: Straits of Hormuz and how it could have been foreseen 166 00:09:37,450 --> 00:09:40,330 S1: that the Iranians were going to shut this off as 167 00:09:40,330 --> 00:09:43,770 S1: a way of retaliating, because some analysts are actually saying 168 00:09:43,970 --> 00:09:47,650 S1: that Trump's desire in starting this war, obviously, along with 169 00:09:47,650 --> 00:09:52,089 S1: the Israelis, was to starve China of the cheap oil 170 00:09:52,090 --> 00:09:54,580 S1: that it gets from Iran, that this was a geopolitical 171 00:09:54,580 --> 00:09:58,380 S1: strategy to shore up America's global supremacy, because so much 172 00:09:58,380 --> 00:10:01,860 S1: of China's economy relies on the crude that it gets 173 00:10:01,860 --> 00:10:05,100 S1: from Iran. Something like 14% of its seaborne crude comes 174 00:10:05,100 --> 00:10:07,500 S1: from Iran. Do you think there's any credibility to that, 175 00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:09,420 S1: or is that just giving Trump way too much credit 176 00:10:09,420 --> 00:10:11,500 S1: that he would have had this geopolitical strategy? 177 00:10:11,540 --> 00:10:14,820 S2: Yes. I think this is a part of a syndrome 178 00:10:15,460 --> 00:10:19,900 S2: of experts who really know their subjects to look at 179 00:10:19,940 --> 00:10:23,700 S2: the Trump chaos. It's like a Rorschach test, right? And 180 00:10:24,260 --> 00:10:29,780 S2: superimposed on that, that inkblot, their own expertise and understanding 181 00:10:29,780 --> 00:10:32,819 S2: of the world. I think this is a classic example 182 00:10:33,140 --> 00:10:37,819 S2: in this great muddle and befuddlement, in the Trump mind, 183 00:10:37,820 --> 00:10:41,140 S2: in the Trump planning, or the absence of planning. Um, 184 00:10:41,300 --> 00:10:45,380 S2: people seek order and understanding, and so they impose their 185 00:10:45,380 --> 00:10:50,780 S2: own structured thinking and academic learning and expertise and see 186 00:10:50,820 --> 00:10:53,620 S2: in it maybe what they would do or trying to 187 00:10:53,620 --> 00:10:56,580 S2: make sense of it. I don't think there's any prospect 188 00:10:56,580 --> 00:11:00,300 S2: that Trump has actually considered that in any sort of, um, 189 00:11:00,300 --> 00:11:05,660 S2: thought through way. Everything he does, whether it's tariffs, missiles, 190 00:11:06,420 --> 00:11:10,740 S2: you name it, is ad hoc and all that's done. 191 00:11:10,740 --> 00:11:14,260 S2: If you think about China and oil, Trump is trying 192 00:11:14,260 --> 00:11:19,140 S2: to discourage countries from using Russian oil because the US 193 00:11:19,140 --> 00:11:22,620 S2: and others have sanctions on Russian oil to punish them 194 00:11:22,620 --> 00:11:27,500 S2: for their invasion of Ukraine. But by creating a shortage 195 00:11:27,500 --> 00:11:29,940 S2: and a price hike of oil coming out of the 196 00:11:29,940 --> 00:11:34,300 S2: Persian Gulf, that is just pushing China and India into 197 00:11:34,340 --> 00:11:37,700 S2: buying more Russian oil. Now, this is a great gift 198 00:11:37,700 --> 00:11:39,579 S2: to the Kremlin. This is a great gift to the 199 00:11:39,580 --> 00:11:44,579 S2: Russian war machine. Dmitry Peskov, who's the chief spokesperson for 200 00:11:44,580 --> 00:11:49,380 S2: Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, was gloating on social media. Uh, 201 00:11:49,540 --> 00:11:53,309 S2: $100 a barrel of oil. Here we come. 202 00:11:55,630 --> 00:11:56,550 S1: After the break. 203 00:11:57,870 --> 00:12:04,870 S2: Candace Owens, a mega influencer of some notoriety. She has 204 00:12:04,870 --> 00:12:10,030 S2: described this not as the so-called Operation Epic Fury. She 205 00:12:10,030 --> 00:12:12,510 S2: calls it Operation Epstein Fury. 206 00:12:25,710 --> 00:12:28,709 S1: What kind of chaos do you think this could unleash? 207 00:12:29,150 --> 00:12:32,390 S1: I was thinking about something that I heard Thomas Friedman 208 00:12:32,429 --> 00:12:34,990 S1: say the other day. He is the Pulitzer Prize winning 209 00:12:34,990 --> 00:12:37,870 S1: political writer. And he said just the other day on 210 00:12:37,870 --> 00:12:41,350 S1: what's happening in Iran. The opposite of autocracy isn't democracy. 211 00:12:41,830 --> 00:12:46,390 S1: It's chaos. So we've seen what happens when the US invades, say, 212 00:12:46,429 --> 00:12:51,949 S1: Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya, and often far worse regimes 213 00:12:51,990 --> 00:12:56,710 S1: either come about or it's just absolute chaos. So what 214 00:12:56,710 --> 00:12:57,510 S1: do you think, Peter? 215 00:12:57,550 --> 00:13:03,190 S2: Well, it was the US led invasion of Afghanistan and 216 00:13:03,190 --> 00:13:07,350 S2: then Iraq. The futility, the failures and the enormous cost 217 00:13:07,390 --> 00:13:09,829 S2: that turned the US as a as a whole, as 218 00:13:09,830 --> 00:13:14,510 S2: a polity against the use of warfare where it's avoidable. 219 00:13:14,990 --> 00:13:18,470 S2: That's why Barack Obama used to say, I'm the president 220 00:13:18,470 --> 00:13:22,790 S2: who ends wars as a contrast with Bush and his predecessors. 221 00:13:23,270 --> 00:13:26,189 S2: That's why Donald Trump in his inaugural said, I'm not 222 00:13:26,190 --> 00:13:28,710 S2: going to start any wars. I'm going to end wars. 223 00:13:28,710 --> 00:13:32,070 S2: He's called himself the president for peace. That is because 224 00:13:32,070 --> 00:13:36,590 S2: the costs have been so horrendous. Afghanistan, the US was 225 00:13:36,590 --> 00:13:40,390 S2: there for 20 years and the Taliban is back in control. 226 00:13:40,390 --> 00:13:43,230 S2: So what was the point of the bloodshed? What was 227 00:13:43,230 --> 00:13:46,390 S2: the point of the cost at the chaos? The wounded 228 00:13:46,390 --> 00:13:51,080 S2: veterans who were still suffering from amputations, PTSD and all 229 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:56,840 S2: the rest of it. Then there was Iraq, where, you know, again, 230 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:02,840 S2: tremendous initial bombardment, followed by a series of half assed, 231 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:08,719 S2: half conceived, badly executed plans resulted in eight years of losses. 232 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:13,800 S2: US leaves, as a consequence, an unintended consequence of the 233 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,480 S2: US led combat. We see ISIS take over a large 234 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,440 S2: chunk of the country, form a caliphate, and start exporting 235 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:24,000 S2: terrorism with that sort of a history of strategy and 236 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,320 S2: failure to plan. It's no surprise that there is great 237 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,800 S2: skepticism about what the US strategy is next, but it 238 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,600 S2: is a surprise that the at the failure of any 239 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:40,440 S2: evidence of real strategy. Mind you, if Trump does succeed 240 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:44,520 S2: with the Israelis in removing this regime, if they can 241 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:50,560 S2: somehow engineer a more benign and reasonable, responsible government. Donald 242 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,200 S2: Trump will be hailed as a great hero. Part of 243 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,600 S2: the difficulty with these sort of events, with wars is 244 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:58,200 S2: that anything is possible. 245 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,360 S1: Well, I guess let's talk about that then. The prospect 246 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,880 S1: for regime change, because we know that the Trump administration 247 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,040 S1: has actively undermined any opposition that could rise up against 248 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,400 S1: the Islamic Republic, right. Like Trump has taken money away 249 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:14,360 S1: from Iranian human rights monitoring groups. And Kari Lake, who's 250 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,040 S1: a Maga superstar within Trump's camp, she's cut funding to 251 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:20,920 S1: the Open Technology Fund Agency, which is dedicated to providing 252 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:25,040 S1: virtual private networks and satellite access to Iranians. We also 253 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,880 S1: know the Voice of America, which was a local radio 254 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:32,480 S1: station in Persian language, which could give Iranians access to, uh, 255 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:37,840 S1: non propaganda, essentially to information that's been cut back. So 256 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,520 S1: isn't it quite a leap, I guess, to think that 257 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,360 S1: there could be regime change here or am I just 258 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:44,320 S1: being pessimistic? 259 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:49,250 S2: Well, the ayatollahs have been, as far as we can tell, 260 00:15:49,290 --> 00:15:55,530 S2: very successful in destroying and splintering any potential opposition. As 261 00:15:55,530 --> 00:15:59,010 S2: far as we know, there is no organized opposition in Iran, 262 00:15:59,010 --> 00:16:02,930 S2: so it's a difficult place to start. But there are 263 00:16:02,930 --> 00:16:06,210 S2: some opposition figures. We know that, for example, from the 264 00:16:06,210 --> 00:16:09,290 S2: fact that the US was able to smuggle into Iran 265 00:16:09,730 --> 00:16:14,810 S2: 6000 Starlink satellite terminals to help the Iranian opposition continue 266 00:16:14,810 --> 00:16:19,130 S2: to have communications and to get around the communications blackout 267 00:16:19,130 --> 00:16:22,210 S2: imposed by the regime. So somebody receiving those and somebody 268 00:16:22,210 --> 00:16:26,490 S2: using those. And in fact, John Bolton's point was, he said, 269 00:16:26,490 --> 00:16:30,530 S2: the main emphasis today for the US and its allies 270 00:16:31,530 --> 00:16:34,050 S2: really only got the one which is on the ground 271 00:16:34,090 --> 00:16:38,210 S2: in is Israel really need to be talking to the opposition, 272 00:16:38,210 --> 00:16:42,210 S2: negotiating with the opposition, trying to help and assist and 273 00:16:42,210 --> 00:16:45,650 S2: boost the opposition, because the opposition uniquely has an ability 274 00:16:45,650 --> 00:16:49,380 S2: to work inside the country to find any fissures or 275 00:16:49,380 --> 00:16:53,500 S2: differences between the different elements of the Iranian regime and 276 00:16:53,500 --> 00:16:56,140 S2: try to pick it apart, if in fact that's possible. 277 00:16:56,500 --> 00:17:00,180 S2: Because if the regime is going to fall, its security 278 00:17:00,540 --> 00:17:04,500 S2: apparatus or its political leadership or both need to fracture. 279 00:17:05,260 --> 00:17:08,859 S2: At this stage, you don't see the security apparatus starting 280 00:17:08,859 --> 00:17:11,500 S2: to fracture in any way. There's a frisson of excitement 281 00:17:11,500 --> 00:17:15,060 S2: that a single prison allowed some political prisoners to walk 282 00:17:15,060 --> 00:17:20,379 S2: out without explanation. That's a long way from either the 283 00:17:20,700 --> 00:17:24,780 S2: regular army or the Revolutionary Guard from splintering. 284 00:17:25,020 --> 00:17:26,980 S1: And I guess, Peter, just to wrap up, I want 285 00:17:27,020 --> 00:17:30,620 S1: to ask you what you think the political price, I guess, 286 00:17:30,660 --> 00:17:32,340 S1: could be for Trump in all of this. I mean, 287 00:17:32,380 --> 00:17:34,060 S1: this war might go on. For a very long time, 288 00:17:34,060 --> 00:17:37,100 S1: I've been seeing analysis that the Iranians will try to 289 00:17:37,140 --> 00:17:40,139 S1: prolong the war as long as possible in order to 290 00:17:40,180 --> 00:17:42,899 S1: drive up the cost of the war for Trump, American casualties, 291 00:17:42,900 --> 00:17:45,460 S1: the price of oil we've just mentioned, you know, so 292 00:17:45,460 --> 00:17:47,980 S1: that he can they can persuade him to declare victory 293 00:17:47,980 --> 00:17:51,420 S1: and just go home. Now, when we last spoke just 294 00:17:51,420 --> 00:17:53,020 S1: a few days ago, I think it was only about 295 00:17:53,020 --> 00:17:55,180 S1: a quarter of Americans who were in support of the war. 296 00:17:55,220 --> 00:17:58,340 S1: I can't imagine that's going to go anywhere but down. 297 00:17:59,140 --> 00:18:02,820 S1: Assuming that, tragically more American service members are killed in 298 00:18:02,820 --> 00:18:05,740 S1: this conflict, so could this be the thing that really 299 00:18:05,740 --> 00:18:08,939 S1: damages his power in the United States? Like, what are 300 00:18:08,980 --> 00:18:12,180 S1: the MAGA base feeling about this and other Republicans? 301 00:18:13,380 --> 00:18:18,140 S2: Well, it's similar to to Trump's tariff policy that was 302 00:18:18,140 --> 00:18:23,060 S2: essentially imposing a cost on American consumers to pay more 303 00:18:23,060 --> 00:18:25,899 S2: for their goods so that Trump could use the fiscal 304 00:18:25,900 --> 00:18:28,380 S2: space that created to give a tax cut to the rich. 305 00:18:28,859 --> 00:18:32,420 S2: So it's a direct transfer of wealth from American consumers 306 00:18:32,420 --> 00:18:36,620 S2: to wealthy taxpayers with this one. What you see with 307 00:18:36,619 --> 00:18:40,460 S2: the inflationary effect taking effect through the price of oil 308 00:18:40,460 --> 00:18:43,300 S2: and LNG, but also will flow on to the price 309 00:18:43,300 --> 00:18:46,830 S2: of plastics, polyesters and others as well. What you're going 310 00:18:46,869 --> 00:18:50,790 S2: to see there is again, an inflationary increase, which is 311 00:18:50,790 --> 00:18:55,310 S2: a direct transfer of wealth away from the American consumer 312 00:18:56,150 --> 00:19:00,909 S2: that can't help Trump's domestic standing. The two big domestic 313 00:19:00,910 --> 00:19:04,430 S2: problems he's got that are proving insurmountable for him. One 314 00:19:04,430 --> 00:19:07,230 S2: is inflation and the cost of living. That's the number 315 00:19:07,230 --> 00:19:09,590 S2: one concern for most Americans. And he's been unable to 316 00:19:09,590 --> 00:19:12,070 S2: do anything concrete about that except to try and talk 317 00:19:12,070 --> 00:19:15,070 S2: it down, which doesn't work. And the second is the 318 00:19:15,070 --> 00:19:18,870 S2: Epstein case. Again, it just doesn't go away. And he's 319 00:19:18,869 --> 00:19:23,230 S2: mishandled that pretty horribly. And that really rankles with the 320 00:19:23,230 --> 00:19:30,630 S2: MAGA base. Candace Owens. A Maga influencer of some notoriety, 321 00:19:31,030 --> 00:19:36,109 S2: she has described this not as the so-called Operation Epic Fury. 322 00:19:36,390 --> 00:19:40,550 S2: She calls it Operation Epstein Fury, on the basis that 323 00:19:40,550 --> 00:19:43,590 S2: it's a Trump attempt to deflect and distract from his 324 00:19:43,590 --> 00:19:47,710 S2: problem with the Epstein files and the ructions that's created 325 00:19:47,710 --> 00:19:51,430 S2: within the MAGA base. So the MAGA base is splintering 326 00:19:51,430 --> 00:19:55,230 S2: on this. The entire American population is paying the price 327 00:19:55,230 --> 00:19:59,790 S2: again for Trump policy. The longer this goes, as you say, 328 00:19:59,790 --> 00:20:03,070 S2: the more likely that price will go up for the 329 00:20:03,070 --> 00:20:07,229 S2: American public, not to mention the taxpayer cost of of 330 00:20:07,230 --> 00:20:08,790 S2: the actual waging of the war. 331 00:20:08,950 --> 00:20:11,990 S1: And also, I would suggest those who join the American 332 00:20:11,990 --> 00:20:16,070 S1: military are disproportionately from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. So there's going 333 00:20:16,109 --> 00:20:20,870 S1: to be young soldiers who are often not well off. 334 00:20:20,869 --> 00:20:23,590 S1: And I just I wonder how that will play with 335 00:20:23,910 --> 00:20:26,950 S1: Trump's base as well. Well, again, this sort of sheltering 336 00:20:26,950 --> 00:20:29,710 S1: the elite and then, you know, the sort of less 337 00:20:29,710 --> 00:20:31,830 S1: well-off paying in every way. 338 00:20:33,190 --> 00:20:36,830 S2: Well, this is a common syndrome with militaries everywhere and 339 00:20:36,869 --> 00:20:39,830 S2: and especially with the US military in the recent deployments 340 00:20:39,830 --> 00:20:45,320 S2: we've seen in this century, it would be completely politically 341 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:49,119 S2: suicidal for Trump to put ground forces into Iran, because 342 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:54,720 S2: that would guarantee a large number of American troops being killed, 343 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,600 S2: which would indeed inflame opinion. Opinion is not with Trump 344 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,880 S2: on this. It would turn savagely against him. So if 345 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,200 S2: he succeeds as a as I said, if he succeeds, 346 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,200 S2: he'll be hailed as a hero. And that might get 347 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,000 S2: him a few brownie points. But it's hard to see 348 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:15,359 S2: this as a big domestic political winner, particularly the longer 349 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,840 S2: it goes on and the higher those costs run. 350 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:22,399 S1: Well, we're lucky that you are commentating in this space, 351 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:23,720 S1: so thank you so much, Peter. 352 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,600 S2: Always a pleasure to chat to you, Samantha. 353 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,560 S1: In other news, today, Australian researchers have developed an AI 354 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,480 S1: tool that can predict breast cancer in women who have 355 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:48,880 S1: been given the all clear in traditional screenings. And the 356 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:53,440 S1: data is in. Despite government incentives, property investors have piled 357 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,400 S1: into the Australian housing market in the past five years, 358 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,720 S1: while first home buyers have fallen and a hit TV 359 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,680 S1: series has created a new generation obsessed with the style 360 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:09,359 S1: of the late Carolyn Bessette-kennedy. Experts explain why her minimalist 361 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:14,800 S1: look deserves another look. You can read more at theage.com.au 362 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:22,040 S1: or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong. Our 363 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,680 S1: executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen 364 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:29,639 S1: by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, 365 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,320 S1: follow the Morning Edition and leave a review for us 366 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,440 S1: on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.