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Speaker 1: The Australian Financial Review. Hello, I'm James Thompson, Senior Chanta

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Speaker 1: Clear columnist of the AFI. Welcome to our weekly news

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Speaker 1: breakdown of Orkans, business, finance and markets. With me today,

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Speaker 1: as always, is most chanted for your colleague. He's cleared

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Speaker 1: for takeoff and ready to saw. It's Anthony McDonald.

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Speaker 2: How are you, Anthony, Thanks for letting right up in

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Speaker 2: front of you today, James.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely well. This week we try to explain what's coming

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Speaker 1: for Australia from the AI Revolution, we reveal the biggest

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Speaker 1: winners from the float of Virgin Australia, and you'll never

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Speaker 1: guess Trump and Musk's romance is over. But first, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: the GDP numbers came out this week and we've got

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Speaker 1: a fresh look at the health of the Australian economy. Now,

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Speaker 1: doctor Donald, what's your diagnosis?

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Speaker 2: A bit sluggish, James, economy. She's looking a bit off,

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Speaker 2: a bit of em lacking bit of iron, not a

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Speaker 2: great color. Economic growth in March quarter was weaker than expected, James.

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Speaker 2: GDP about zero point two percent for the quarter or

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Speaker 2: one point three percent for the twelve months to March

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Speaker 2: thirty one. And GDP that growth actually decelerated in the quarter.

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Speaker 2: Why James, because government spending backed off, the private steck

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Speaker 2: still pretty soft. Productivities, poor wages are high. Put all

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Speaker 2: that together and while it's good inflations back in the

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Speaker 2: range the economy, it's taken a bit of a beating.

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Speaker 2: I guess that explains why the RBA cut rates in

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Speaker 2: February and again in May. And it's a bit of

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Speaker 2: a quirk, isn't it. That's in this day and age,

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Speaker 2: we're getting March quarter data two months in, one week

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Speaker 2: after it happens.

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Speaker 1: But good point.

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Speaker 2: Think about everything that's happened since the end of March, James,

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Speaker 2: you know that was that was that was pre liberation day.

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Speaker 2: So we are we are looking at historical data here.

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Speaker 2: But I think James at ramps up there rate cut calls.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the good news is RBO start to the

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Speaker 2: quarter with the rates of four point one percent. Now

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Speaker 2: back to three point eight five percent. There's plenty of

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Speaker 2: rooms cut more if required the next meetings on July

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Speaker 2: seven and eight, one month's time, and I think we'll

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Speaker 2: see the odds of rate cuts shortened as we get

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Speaker 2: closer to it. What do you make of it?

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Speaker 1: Dr Thompson well, look, I think your diagnosis is pretty good.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're just know, it's the middle of winter.

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Speaker 1: We all feel a bit run down, and so does

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Speaker 1: the economy. We're stuck. We're stuck in LOGI. We've been

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Speaker 1: stuck in LOGI for a while. You know. I was

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Speaker 1: chatting to the Financial Reviews economics guru Mike Reid, and

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Speaker 1: he doesn't buy into the per capita recession type thing.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't think that's the greatest measure of the economy.

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Speaker 1: But look, I mean we've been sort of just going

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Speaker 1: for about the best part of eighteen months. I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's any surprise. I am a bit surprised though,

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Speaker 1: that the Treasurer, doctor Jim Chalmers, to give everyone there

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Speaker 1: right as. I mean, he's out there to described open

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Speaker 1: the Australian economy as world beating. I mean, I guess

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Speaker 1: that we're not China or America, and that's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: But I don't see anything world beating here, Anthony. I

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Speaker 1: see a lot of work for the for the Treasurer

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Speaker 1: and the Prime Minister to do to try and get

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Speaker 1: the private sector firing again. Surely that's the that's got

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Speaker 1: to be the big focus here. I wouldn't be claiming

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Speaker 1: these numbers as world beating, would you.

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Speaker 2: No, absolutely not. The headline numbers are not well beating.

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Speaker 2: That's that's a fact. And James, late this week, the

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Speaker 2: most predictable event in the history of business, finance, and markets,

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Speaker 2: and probably politics and human kind happened. US President Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump and gazillionaire Elon Musk have fallen out and been

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Speaker 2: trading barbs on their respective social media platforms. James, at

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Speaker 2: the heart of it is something called the Big Beautiful Bill. Please,

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Speaker 2: can you explain what is the Big Beautiful Bill? And

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Speaker 2: why is Elon Musk the man who pumped millions into

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Speaker 2: Trump's reelection campaign and then the doge raise a gang.

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Speaker 2: Why is he hit the roof?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think he's hit the roof because he's been

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Speaker 1: kicked out of the gang by the mean girls in

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Speaker 1: the White House. Basically, I mean, this has got all

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Speaker 1: the hallmarks of a schoolyard spat. Elon's a bit nuts,

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Speaker 1: Trump's a bit nuts. They've fallen out. Trump's given Elon

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Speaker 1: his marching orders, and I think Elon's spat the dummy

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Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden, after sort of supporting

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Speaker 1: every Trump move, that came in the first one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty days of the administration. Now he's decided, as

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Speaker 1: you say, he doesn't like this big beautiful bill. So

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Speaker 1: the big beautiful Bill is the centerpiece of his administration. Really.

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Speaker 1: It delivers tax cuts and then over time it delivers

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Speaker 1: spending cuts. But what it doesn't do is help rain

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Speaker 1: in the budget deficit, which is what Trump's promised and

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Speaker 1: what Elon's Doge Razor Gang, as you say, that's what

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Speaker 1: it was all about, trying to get the budget deficit down,

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Speaker 1: get the government spending back into line. So you know, yes,

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Speaker 1: the one beautiful Bill is spark the argument, but now

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Speaker 1: it's just spiraling out of control. So on Thursday night

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Speaker 1: American time, Friday morning, our time, you know, these guys

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Speaker 1: were hurling insults at each other in real time on

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Speaker 1: social media. It was great to watch. You know, you

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Speaker 1: had sort of Trump threatening to cancel all of Musk's

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Speaker 1: contracts with the government. A Musk comes back and says

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Speaker 1: that Trump is in the files of the US government

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Speaker 1: has collected about the convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Trump comes

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Speaker 1: back and suggests, you know, Elon's sort of ungrateful, and

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Speaker 1: they were best buddies and what's happened? And it ends

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Speaker 1: with Musk sort of, or it ends at this stage

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Speaker 1: with Musk suggesting that Trump should be impeached and JD

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Speaker 1: Van should take over. Meanwhile, Anthony, if you're an investor

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Speaker 1: in Tesla, which let's face it, millions of Australians are

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Speaker 1: through their superannuation fund, fourteen percent of the company's market

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Speaker 1: value one hundred and fifty billion US has been wiped

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Speaker 1: off overnight. I mean this is mask has played with

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Speaker 1: fire here by backing Trump and shock horror, he's now

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Speaker 1: getting burnt. I mean, what a This is a mess, isn't.

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Speaker 2: It tato mess?

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Speaker 1: James?

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Speaker 2: I mean the spat itself. I think everyone saw this

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Speaker 2: coming and now it's playing out publicly, and it's ugly

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Speaker 2: and predictable, and you know, it's not something that it's

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Speaker 2: enjoyable to watch it all. But at the heart of it, James,

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Speaker 2: like this big beautiful bill, like it's hundreds of proposed

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Speaker 2: changes all wrapped up together. Actually it's actually pretty important,

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Speaker 2: and the whole thing's playing with like playing with fireworks,

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Speaker 2: I reckon, James, like, it could be beautiful if it works,

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Speaker 2: but it could also explode in the US's face big time.

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Speaker 2: If you cut taxes, do you accelerate the economy and

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Speaker 2: increase the tax take or do you just make the

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Speaker 2: deficit problem bigger or both? That's kind of all both. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's kind of the heart at the heart of this

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Speaker 2: whole thing. So elon, Musk, I mean, he's also got

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Speaker 2: a financial interest in this fight. Part of the big

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Speaker 2: beautiful bill is winding back subsidies on electric vehicles. Mask

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Speaker 2: Tesla obviously makes electric vehicles, so we can see how

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Speaker 2: this could hit him in the hip pocket as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, choose your fighter here, Anthony. This is play

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Speaker 1: out over the next few weeks. Who do you want

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Speaker 1: to back the world's richest man or the world's most

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Speaker 1: powerful man?

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Speaker 2: The world's most powerful man?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I agree, I just don't. I think

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Speaker 1: Mask has badly overplayed his hand here. It's not going

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Speaker 1: to end well for him. But let's see, all right, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: let's move to our first topic. And on Tuesday in Sydney,

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Speaker 1: the AFI hosted its second annual Artificial Intelligence Summit, which

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Speaker 1: featured a string of big speakers from the tech sector,

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Speaker 1: from government, and of course, from the top end of town.

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Speaker 1: Including Telstra's Vicki Brady and Commonwealth Banks Matt common Now, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: I've got to say I was blown away by this day.

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Speaker 1: Totally full room, they were engaged the whole day, and

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Speaker 1: just so much big picture stuff to think about. And

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Speaker 1: I've got to say for me to worry about. But Anthony,

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Speaker 1: before I do my usual thing on the podcast and

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Speaker 1: bring the move down, what was your big takeaway from

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Speaker 1: the day.

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Speaker 2: Geez, you give me the big picture question, James. That's

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Speaker 2: dangerous Google. People don't wear dress shoes, even the hard ones.

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Speaker 2: Good boy, the big picture. There's a lot of money

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Speaker 2: in a Jeeves, big full room, great sponsors, very good speakers.

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Speaker 2: A lot of these people are trying to work so

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Speaker 2: fast to sell this stuff, to really establish themselves as leaders.

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Speaker 2: It's a booming industry, James. It's unlike any other I

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Speaker 2: would say, in terms of what we do in our conferences,

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Speaker 2: in summits and in times like this, the thought leaders.

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Speaker 2: Also the salespeople, aren't they like we sat there and

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Speaker 2: we'll listening to you know, it comes like Google Salesforce

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Speaker 2: telling us all about it, or we sat there listening

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Speaker 2: to people like Telstra's Vicki Brady CBA's Matt Common, you know,

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Speaker 2: who are just back from trips to the US hearing

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Speaker 2: from these big tech giants about how fast it's all

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Speaker 2: moving and makes you sort of wonder, like who's talking

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Speaker 2: about it? It isn't making money. And we had the

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Speaker 2: minister him as at the summit, but you know, he's

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Speaker 2: two minutes into the job, so I mean, to be

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Speaker 2: fair to him, he didn't have that much to contribute,

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Speaker 2: and that's understandable given that he's just taken the portfolio.

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Speaker 2: But I mean the big takeaway, James, I mean, there's

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Speaker 2: just so much potentially transformational change going on here, and

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Speaker 2: I mean it's started. Those that are selling it, those

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Speaker 2: that have heard the pitch firsthand, they're telling us this

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Speaker 2: is the fourth Industrial Revolution. You know, even KKRS CEO

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Speaker 2: who he met this week, was telling us this is

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Speaker 2: bigger than the Internet, James and generous. If AI really

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Speaker 2: kicked it off, you know, that's the large language models

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Speaker 2: that create the content text, pitches, videos, etc. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's a couple of years ago now now it's a

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Speaker 2: gentic AI creating agents making decisions, replacing human beings, not

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Speaker 2: just generating content anymore, but actually doing stuff now. Vicky Brady,

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Speaker 2: fresh off her trip to the US, she said, you know,

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Speaker 2: things that she and you know she's in the middle

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Speaker 2: of the Australia sort of tech industry. She said, things

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Speaker 2: that she thought were a year or two way are

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Speaker 2: actually happening now. It's coming, The big change is coming.

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Speaker 2: We need to get ready for it. That's excited. I'm

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Speaker 2: excited and I'm not even wearing dress use today James

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Speaker 2: at Tips through our mates at Google. But I feel like,

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Speaker 2: I feel like there's something else going on here, James,

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Speaker 2: and you might go full Doomer on us here, what's

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Speaker 2: got you worried?

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Speaker 1: Well, look, Anthony, I think what's got me worried is

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Speaker 1: the speed at which this is happening. But you think

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Speaker 1: about you know, often you hear the argument about AI, like,

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Speaker 1: don't worry. We've been through periods of technological change before

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Speaker 1: and they all worked out. You know that, the steam engine,

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Speaker 1: electrification of the economy, the Internet. You know the world's

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Speaker 1: a better place after those things, or so that argument goes.

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Speaker 1: I totally get that, And I think my great hope

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Speaker 1: is not that we have some great strategy to get

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Speaker 1: through this, but then we just muddle through it, and

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Speaker 1: we find a way and we had apt and we

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Speaker 1: do what humans have done for thousands of years and

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Speaker 1: done really well, which is just figure it out and

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Speaker 1: get on with it. That's probably true. But the one

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Speaker 1: thing that gives me a bit of pause is the

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Speaker 1: speed at which this is happening. You know, it's not

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Speaker 1: like the electrification of the global economy that took four

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Speaker 1: or five decades. It's not like the Internet, it took

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Speaker 1: two generations really to have a really meaningful effect on

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Speaker 1: the global economy. This is happening in the space of

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Speaker 1: It's thirty months, thirty months since chat GPT was released,

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Speaker 1: and we've gone from oh, isn't it cool that I

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Speaker 1: can make a picture of you Anthony dressed as a

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Speaker 1: superhero to agents coming in to take people's jobs thirty months.

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Speaker 1: Countries and companies are slow moving beasts, and I think

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Speaker 1: this is one where that lack of speed will hurt us.

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Speaker 1: You know, as you said, we had lots of people

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Speaker 1: at the summit selling the idea of AI. I don't

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Speaker 1: think that's fair enough, because we're all trying to figure

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Speaker 1: it out and certain people are trying to make money

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Speaker 1: of it. No problems with that. I liked one of

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Speaker 1: the speakers I had on my panel, Leal Yardsley. She's

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Speaker 1: been working with AI for twenty years in one form

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Speaker 1: or another. Her point was that, you know, we went

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Speaker 1: from an agrarian economy sort of in the eighteen hundreds

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Speaker 1: to an industrial economy. You know, we went from farmers

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Speaker 1: to workers. Now ninety five percent of us work with

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Speaker 1: our brains, and that's what AI is coming for. So

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Speaker 1: the size of this, of this disruption is pretty big. Now.

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Speaker 1: I think we had a lot of different views on

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Speaker 1: whether this is sort of going to wipe out a

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Speaker 1: big swathe of jobs, and I think that, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's totally up in the end, no one's got any

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Speaker 1: real idea. But I kept coming back to what Matt

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Speaker 1: Common said. It's okay if you dismissed the predictions from

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Speaker 1: the CEO of the BAI developer anthropic who says unemployment

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Speaker 1: might spark to twenty percent within five years. That's okay

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Speaker 1: if you don't believe that. Totally fair enough. But uestion

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Speaker 1: we should ask is what if he is right? Anthony.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is what I keep coming back to.

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Speaker 1: What if he's right? Do you think we are ready

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Speaker 1: in terms of the infrastructure we need, the power we need,

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Speaker 1: the policity settings we need. I just want to ask

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Speaker 1: you on the back of that. We had a great

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Speaker 1: listener question from Melanie and Victoria, who speaks to this topic.

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Speaker 1: AI's discourse, She says, often focuses on job losses and

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Speaker 1: automation risk. But how can we reframe the national conversation

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Speaker 1: to address how AI will change jobs, reshape career pathways,

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Speaker 1: and elevate the importance of distinctly human capabilities like empathy, storytelling, ethics.

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Speaker 1: What role should education and policy play in preparing our

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Speaker 1: workforce for this error? Great question, Melanie, Anthony, do you

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Speaker 1: see us talking about this? Do you see the move

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Speaker 1: in the sort of in government policy or the general

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Speaker 1: community to say, let's be ready for this stuff.

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Speaker 2: But we definitely need to talk about it. If you

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Speaker 2: just just look at the jobs bit that Melanie talks

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Speaker 2: about there, James, there's no point hiding from it, right,

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Speaker 2: Like this is designed to take out jobs, there will

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Speaker 2: be a change in the workforce. If they are right,

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Speaker 2: If we should be preparing for large scale job losses

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Speaker 2: market disruption, then definitely all right, start using the AI

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Speaker 2: tools now. Companies can start training their staff on the

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Speaker 2: AI tools. Just get your head around what these products

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Speaker 2: actually look like, what you actually need to be able

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Speaker 2: to do to understand them to use them better. And

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Speaker 2: then also it's up to companies to start thinking about

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Speaker 2: if our staff in certain jobs are going to lose

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Speaker 2: them to the AI agents, where can we deploy them,

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Speaker 2: what's the future, where are we going to be hiring

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Speaker 2: in the future, and start shifting them that way. So

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Speaker 2: we can't hide from the job losses and the change

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Speaker 2: in the workforce. And I think it's healthy to be

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Speaker 2: talking about it. There is no point waking up in

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Speaker 2: three years time we've got a litany of job losses

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Speaker 2: and we're like, where did this come from? We may

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Speaker 2: as well be prepared for it. In terms of the

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Speaker 2: wider infrastructure that you asked about, James, I mean we're

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Speaker 2: absolutely not ready. Look at the energy system, like, without

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Speaker 2: being too alarmist, it is dated, held together by sticky tape.

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Speaker 2: Let's relying on old and aging and unreliable cold power stations, James.

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Speaker 2: Some of the biggest which we're supposed to have been

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Speaker 2: retired a few years ago, but we just can't switch

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Speaker 2: them off because we want to be able to keep

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Speaker 2: the lights on twenty four to seven. That is a fact.

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Speaker 2: You know, the energy transition is happening, James. But it's

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Speaker 2: such a big job, right, and then there's so much

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Speaker 2: to do. We don't have enough firm power, we don't

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Speaker 2: have enough storage. We're great in the middle of the

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Speaker 2: day when the sun shining, when the wind's blowing, but

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Speaker 2: we fall short at other times. And so there's investment

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Speaker 2: that's going into more renewable generation, into storage and in

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Speaker 2: transmission James. But the job's massive, and we haven't transitioned

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Speaker 2: the grid at all. So if you start there, if

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Speaker 2: you look at where we are today, what the AI

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Speaker 2: crew want us to think is a pretty analog or

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Speaker 2: digital light world compared to what is coming. Everything to

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Speaker 2: do with AI requires power, James. It's electric electrification of everything, literally,

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Speaker 2: electrification of workers who are your agents, not not people.

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Speaker 2: You know, these agents are going to eat electricity for lunch,

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Speaker 2: not sandwiches. So then you're adding the actual infrastructure you

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Speaker 2: need to house the data, the machines, the learning, you know,

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Speaker 2: the data centers. They're huge power cuckets that run constantly

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Speaker 2: even when the wind isn't blowing, even when the sun

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Speaker 2: isn't shining. These things need power exactly now, AMO, which

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Speaker 2: oversees the Australian energy system, it isn't too alarmed about it.

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Speaker 2: It says, don't worry too much about the data centers.

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Speaker 2: They account for only a couple of percent of Australia's

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Speaker 2: energy usage and that's fine, James. And they say maybe

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Speaker 2: it gets up to ten percent in the next couple

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Speaker 2: of decades, which also doesn't sound too scary. But that's

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Speaker 2: another ten percent of something we already don't have, right.

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Speaker 2: So I wonder, with the way that everyone's talking about

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Speaker 2: agentic AI, the way that forecasting works, if Vicki Brady's

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Speaker 2: right and all this is changing incredibly quickly, do we

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Speaker 2: need a and that to rerun the numbers, you know,

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Speaker 2: every week or every month so that we're used to it. Maybe,

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Speaker 2: I mean, we are tweaking the policy settings slowly, you know.

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Speaker 2: Obviously we spoke about last week about or the week

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Speaker 2: before about gas as the backup source of power generation.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's we're freeing that up a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But you know, clearly there's more reform needed now, James.

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Speaker 2: You asked a few people at the summit what advice

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Speaker 2: they'd give to a teenager about the world of AI.

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Speaker 2: And it's interesting because you were asking, you know, CEOs,

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Speaker 2: top investors and the like. Now, what what advice did

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Speaker 2: they have?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think this goes a little bit to Melanie's question, Actually, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: I mean basically their advice was jump in. I mean

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Speaker 1: I think Craig Blair, who's the a partner and co

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Speaker 1: founder at a venture capital firm air Tree, his suggestion was,

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Speaker 1: kids need to become AI and ninjas. They need to

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Speaker 1: be completely familiar with all the tools. How do they work?

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Speaker 1: What are their limitations? Where can when can I use them?

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Speaker 1: Where can't I use them? Where should I question the

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Speaker 1: answers that they give. So I think that was the

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Speaker 1: general gist, like don't sort of hide and pretend it's

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Speaker 1: not coming and hope you can develop other skills that

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Speaker 1: don't require AI. This is going to be part of

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Speaker 1: everyone's life all the time, and so get used to it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's good advice, actually, Anthony. For adults.

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Speaker 1: I mean, everyone should be having a muck around with

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Speaker 1: this stuff and getting used to it. Because I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's too long until lots of Australians are going

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Speaker 1: to be asked to use this stuff in their job.

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Speaker 1: And I think, just coming back to Melanie's question about

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Speaker 1: education and policy, I was really impressed by Vicky Brady

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Speaker 1: from Telstra said our workforce is going to be smaller

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Speaker 1: because of AI in five years. You know, doesn't know

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Speaker 1: how much smaller, doesn't know what it's going to look like,

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Speaker 1: but she does know that in the next five years

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Speaker 1: she's got to spend a lot more time training her

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Speaker 1: people on AI. They've got an AI academy, she said,

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Speaker 1: They've put twenty thousand people through it to get them

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Speaker 1: some skills. Now, I don't see anything like that from

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Speaker 1: the government. I mean, perhaps we should also, perhaps we

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Speaker 1: should even be trying to get this stuff into the

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Speaker 1: official curriculum of our schools. Like you know, I know

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Speaker 1: that most teachers have treated AI with sort of fear

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Speaker 1: and skepticism. You know, is it helping kids cheat and plagiarize.

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Speaker 1: Maybe we need to flip that and start teaching kids about,

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Speaker 1: you know, how to use AI, where the best use it,

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Speaker 1: what it can and can't do. What are the limitations

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Speaker 1: we could make this part of the official curriculum. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I take your point about tim Ayre's the New Innovation

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Speaker 1: and Industry Mini stays two weeks into the job. Okay,

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Speaker 1: but I just thought the tenor of his address was

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Speaker 1: totally wrong. There was no sense of urgency, no sense

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Speaker 1: of you know, I'm going to make this a pro

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Speaker 1: already well, or not enough of a sense of that

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Speaker 1: for mine. I just thought that the tone was wrong. Sure,

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Speaker 1: he couldn't go far on the substance, but I'm just

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Speaker 1: not feeling the sense of urgency that people like Matt

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Speaker 1: Common are trying to get across to us. You know,

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Speaker 1: something needs to change here, and it needs to change

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Speaker 1: really quickly. Your point is exactly right. We don't want

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Speaker 1: to wake up in three years and say, jeez, we

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Speaker 1: missed this, didn't we which I fear is where we're going.

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Speaker 1: So look, if nothing else, you know, big wake up call.

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Speaker 1: This stuff is here, it's changing really quickly. Let's get

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Speaker 1: on with it, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, James. For our second topic, the IPO, we've been

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Speaker 2: talking about for two and a half years, It's finally here.

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Speaker 2: Virgin Australia broke in the pandemic, is back, leaner, meaner

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Speaker 2: and promising to be a better machiner. James, I don't

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Speaker 2: have been capital one of the big private equity firms.

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Speaker 2: It's floating the business, raising six hundred and eighty five

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Speaker 2: million dollars by selling thirty percent of the company in

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Speaker 2: a deal valuing it at two point three billion dollars

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Speaker 2: or seven times forecast profit. James, what do you make

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Speaker 2: of it? Oh?

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Speaker 1: Look, I mean, how good is it to have a

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Speaker 1: meaty IPO back? Oh yeah, I mean everyone I talked

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Speaker 1: to on when this news broke, even the people who

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Speaker 1: don't want to buy Virgin shares, those fund managers were saying,

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Speaker 1: how good is it that we get to we get

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Speaker 1: to look under the hood at this business and make

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Speaker 1: a decision and see a big company come back to

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Speaker 1: the ASX. Great for the market, great for austrained business.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's make no bones about it. This is a

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Speaker 1: great turnaround story. This thing was in receivership in the

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Speaker 1: pandemic was totally cooked. Cutos to Baine, Cutos to Jane

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Speaker 1: Hurdliker for turning it round. I mean, I think they've

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Speaker 1: had a bit of luck in the last little while.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you've noticed, Anthony, but Quantus shares

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Speaker 1: record highs and so you're when the obvious listed pier

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Speaker 1: is shooting the lights out. Well, that a hell of

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Speaker 1: a lot easier to go to investors and say, have

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Speaker 1: a look at this, my friends. Wouldn't you love a

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Speaker 1: chance to own the other airline? The oil prices come down,

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Speaker 1: That's that's really that's really nice. And look, you know,

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Speaker 1: Liberation Day is just a memory in the minds of

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Speaker 1: equity investors. So look, it's good to see this one back.

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Speaker 2: Good to hear you pumped up. But hang on, James,

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Speaker 2: do you remember what you said about this six weeks ago?

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure I'm with you. If they managed to

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Speaker 1: get this float away in June under the thread of

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Speaker 1: tariff wars with US airlines stocks and the toilet with

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Speaker 1: investors kiddish, then there needs to be a statue bill

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Speaker 1: on in Martin Place or in Colin Street with the

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Speaker 1: team of bankers behind this business, and and perhaps bank

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Speaker 1: Capital's CEO as well, that it'd be a fair effort.

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00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 2: So, James, who were building a statue the bankers is emergency?

427
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: Dave Emerson, ban was Mike Murphy, Scott Morrison? I mean

428
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 2: he didn't bail them out in the pandemic? Is a

429
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 2: Vanessa Hudson, Donald Trump mate Scott be sent who are

430
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 2: we talking, Anthony?

431
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 1: Thank you, I thought we were friends. Thanks so much

432
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:18,439
Speaker 1: for bringing this up. But you'll be surprised. I've had

433
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 1: a lot of messages about statues this week. I think

434
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 1: the Bain Capital team took took my statue call as

435
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: a bit of a personal affront or perhaps a personal challenge. Look,

436
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 1: to be fair, to be fair to me, the world

437
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: was in a pretty different place back then. We just

438
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: had we just had the Liberation Day announcements. Equity markets

439
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 1: were plunging.

440
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 2: It.

441
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 1: I stand by it. It looked like at the time, the

442
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 1: worst time ever. The things have turned around, and well

443
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 1: done to all the bankers here. Look, I think success

444
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: has many parents. Bain Capital CEO Mike Murphy, he probably

445
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: he probably needs a statue. There's some bankers out there,

446
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 1: from what we're told, Anthony, from the fund managers. The

447
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 1: new Virgin CEO Dave Emerson has done a great job

448
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 1: selling this to investors with his executive team. Jane hurdlerk Look,

449
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 1: she was the one who took the big punt and

450
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: steered this, put her reputation name on the line and

451
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: steered this out of disaster as well. Very impressive. But

452
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 1: I mean, Anthony, you've written a lot about this IPO

453
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: and you followed all the twists of the turn since

454
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 1: the summer of twenty twenty three when it all started

455
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: coming together. Why do you think they've been able to

456
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 1: get this over the line now in light of all

457
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 1: that turmoil.

458
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 2: Well, just firstly, if it's true that you did fire

459
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 2: them up and they won the premiership, James, they should

460
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 2: be building a little stature of you in their office.

461
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: I think I think why this got up though, James,

462
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 2: is really simple. It's just price. I mean they've put

463
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 2: this out of a thirty percent discount the Countess. And

464
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 2: when we talk about price, James, we're talking about the

465
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 2: multiple of its earnings. So at the moment, you pay

466
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 2: ten times this financial year's earnings to buy one Contest share,

467
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: and you'll pay seven times this financial year is earning

468
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: by one Virgin's share, So Virgin is thirty percent cheaper

469
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 2: than Quantus. It's that simple. That's a good discount. That's

470
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 2: why the deal's getting away now. In recent years, James, vendors,

471
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 2: so those people that are listing their businesses, they look

472
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 2: at something like the high flowing Quantus and say, all right,

473
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 2: if Quantius is worth ten times profit, my business is

474
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: worth ten times profit. We can compete in the same routes.

475
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 2: We fly, similar planes, have similar margins, We're worth the same. Yeah,

476
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 2: Virgin's own a bay has gone Okay, Quanstius is trading

477
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 2: very healthily. We can use that to our advantage. We

478
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 2: can still get this deal done at seven times, which

479
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 2: is a very respectable multiple in normal markets. Sell a

480
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 2: thirty percent steak, keep forty percent for themselves. See how

481
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 2: it goes, and happy days. And the reason, the real

482
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 2: reason they can do that, James, is because they've made

483
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 2: so much money already. Remember they bought Virgin out of administration.

484
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 2: They got their money back two years later. Then they

485
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: made about two times their money. When Qatar came in

486
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 2: and bought a quarter of the company, a deal that's

487
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 2: settled only a couple of months ago. They probably make

488
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 2: another one times their money just by taking money off

489
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,160
Speaker 2: the table at the float here, James, and they still

490
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 2: own forty percent of the business. So if you add

491
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 2: all that up, they got their money back and they've

492
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 2: made probably back of the envelope three times their money

493
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 2: already since then, they still owned forty percent of the

494
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 2: business when it lists, so they're doing really well. You know,

495
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 2: they took a lot of risk at the time they

496
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 2: came in. They executed a turnaround. They did an environment

497
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 2: of high wage growth and consumer sentiment being okay but

498
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 2: not brilliant. They've got Virgin on stable footing, you know,

499
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 2: I mean, so it's a win for high finance, it's

500
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 2: a win for big business. It's a win win for

501
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 2: capitalism here, James. But the big question in my mind

502
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 2: is how long is the aviation market going to stay

503
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 2: like it is? Right, You've got three players, They've got

504
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 2: about third of the market. Each, each has got their spot,

505
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: each is making good money. Virgin's nicely wedge between the

506
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 2: top of the market Quantas and the bottom of the

507
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 2: market jet Star. Obviously those two brands are both owned

508
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 2: by Quantas. You know, it's found its place in the middle.

509
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 2: It's all very rational, sensible shareholders of all the companies

510
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 2: are pretty happy. No one's upsetting the apple cart. At

511
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 2: some stage, James, does it will get upset, someone will

512
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 2: do something. What happens then, you know, how does Virgin respond?

513
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 2: Does it go out all out attack? You know, does

514
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: it get bigger and into the areas it's sworn off

515
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 2: on like international roots, domestic lounges, the expensive stuff that

516
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 2: brought it down last time. Or does it get more

517
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 2: defensive and go to the bottom of the market and

518
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 2: take on jet Star. So, I mean, that's that's the

519
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 2: thing to watch. It's getting away though because of price.

520
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: But James was pretty ironic, wasn't it. Like we sit

521
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 2: here all the time and talk about public markets versus

522
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: private markets, you know, and how the private markets have

523
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 2: got more momentum at the moment than the ASX. This

524
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: still launched on the same day, the exact same day

525
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 2: that ASEK released fifty submissions into its Public and Private

526
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 2: Markets review, and in a lot of those submissions are

527
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: pointing out problems with the public markets. Yeah, and yet

528
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 2: here we are we have a business like Virgin coming

529
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 2: to the market wanting to IPO. Now, is there anything

530
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 2: in any of those submissions to this ASCIC review that

531
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 2: caught your eye? Oh?

532
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: Look, I mean I think there was a lot of

533
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 1: self interest. That would be my main point. The people

534
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: who are big in private markets, they're quite happy for

535
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: ACK to just stay on the sidelines. No more regulation,

536
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 1: please the people who are in public markets. They're worried

537
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: about the health of the public markets. And yeah, I

538
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: take I think your point's valid. Virgin shows the public

539
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: markets are far from dead, but they are very concentrated.

540
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: I mean, this week we've seen CBA become a three

541
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 1: hundred billion dollar company, our first one ever, and that

542
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: just goes I think to the extraordinary concentration in a

543
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,120
Speaker 1: few very large stocks. We're seeing that right around the world. Lord,

544
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 1: we're seeing in Australia. But there's still an opportunity. You're

545
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 1: totally right. This Virgin deal says there's still an opportunity

546
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: for good companies to make their pitch to investors at

547
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 1: the right time. So I think maybe this is a

548
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: bit of a balm for those concerns about the public markets.

549
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: I mean, Anthony, do you think the Virgin IPO, if

550
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: it gets away smoothly and trades well, does that open

551
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: the door for other companies to hit the public markets?

552
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: Do we see more IPOs?

553
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: Oh, that's definitely the question to ask James. There's a

554
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: lot of people watching stickly private equity right. There's a

555
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 2: lot of assets in the private equity sitting on they

556
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 2: haven't been able to sell in recent years, there's no

557
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 2: strategic buyer that's chomping their arm off to try and

558
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 2: buy them, so the obvious exit is putting them back

559
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 2: into public markets and selling them to everyday punters. It's funny,

560
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 2: James like this Virgin Deals launched this week. There's other

561
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 2: IPOs that are out there. There's another one called gem

562
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 2: Life which builds thesemmunities for over fifties to move into.

563
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 2: That's been out there this week. James trying to raise

564
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 2: a bit more than Virgin seven hundred and fifty million

565
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 2: dollars or so. So there is signs of life in the

566
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 2: IPO market. Virgin though, because it's got such a big brand,

567
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 2: because we're sitting here talking about it, because everyone's focused

568
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 2: on it. What happens there is going to be seriously

569
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 2: important if it goes well. Get ready for the private

570
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 2: equity on slot, I reckon. There's plenty of businesses, like

571
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 2: I said, sitting in private equity hands that have been

572
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 2: able to move. So think Green Cross, Right Pets, retail,

573
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 2: and also vets things like my Muscle Chef. I'm not

574
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 2: sure if you're across My Muscle Chef, but they do

575
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 2: those healthy sorts of meals high protein in supermarkets. You know,

576
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 2: scan through all the private equi firms portfolios, James, anything

577
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 2: with a decent brand and decent sort of awareness, you know,

578
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 2: like Virgin has that could have broad appeal. I reckon,

579
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 2: you'll see those dusted off. Right. The thing you need

580
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 2: though with the floats, James, like, price is incredibly important.

581
00:30:58,040 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 2: You need a bit of a hot theme. Right, So

582
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: what's what's running at the moment. At the moment on

583
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 2: the AX running pretty hard? Is this invest in Australia

584
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 2: domestic earning sort of thing? Yep, Virgin's got that in spades, right,

585
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 2: is basically a play on the Australian consumer, boomers, travel,

586
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 2: et cetera. So watch people sort of twist their stories

587
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: around whatever's running on the AX in the next couple

588
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 2: of months.

589
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 1: So it's all going to depend, Anthony, on on how

590
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: Virgin's shares go on listing day. Right, So they're priced

591
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: at two dollars ninety a share. Obviously, I'm very gun

592
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: shy about making predictions when it comes to Virgin Now,

593
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: first day, first day of trade, do they close higher

594
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: or lower?

595
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, really hard to say because it could happen, Like

596
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: look at Trump and elon and all oil price currency,

597
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 2: et cetera. As it is, though, this demand for this

598
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 2: thing's getting away, should should trade be higher? Yeah?

599
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree. And one year's time, is it

600
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: higher or lower?

601
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: I'll think be higher. James, I'm a believer in the

602
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: domestic travel story. I'm a believer that you've got these

603
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: three airlines that are acting rationally and doing well and

604
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: don't want to blow that up just yet, So I

605
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,479
Speaker 2: think it'll head in the right direction.

606
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: What about yourself, Yeah, I think oil prices are probably

607
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 1: a bit of a determinant, but I think a lot

608
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: of where Virgin ends up will be about where Quantus

609
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: ends up. And why I say that is a lot

610
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: of the theory here is that Virgin can stay rational.

611
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: You know, it doesn't need to drop its prices and

612
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 1: fight for market share because Quantus needs to stay rational.

613
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: It needs to stay rational to keep the cash flowing

614
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 1: so it can pay for these lots of new planes

615
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 1: it's got on order. So I think for a year

616
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: at least, I think that rational market behavior can hold,

617
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: and perhaps we could see Virgin shares creep higher. But

618
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 1: the fact that Quantus shares are at that record high

619
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 1: that would give me a little bit of pause. That

620
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 1: gap between virgin and Quantus will probably be reflected in

621
00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: the market pricing going forward well beyond that float. But

622
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 1: it's going to be fascinating to watch, Anthony, and I'll

623
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 1: be spending the weekend melting down bronze to start casting

624
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 1: these statues. So that should be a good long weekend

625
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 1: for me. Well, look, we'll be back after the break.

626
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: We've got another big week coming up, has some really

627
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 1: interesting economic data and a big powwow for the investors

628
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 1: in Australia. Back in a second. Welcome back. If you

629
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: want to know more about what we're talking about today,

630
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: and a whole lot more. AFI subscribers can sign up

631
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 1: to the Chanticlean newsletter at join dot AFI dot com

632
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 1: forward slash chanticlearp. Every Saturday morning, the newsletter pulls together

633
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: the best Shounticle columns from the week and delivers them

634
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 1: straight to your inbox. All right, Anthony, Tuesday night, we're

635
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: both going to be an Assex symposium on private capital.

636
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 1: So this follows on from that work we just mentioned.

637
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 1: They've put all these submissions out, they're testing the market.

638
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 1: Be interesting to see. I think we're going to have

639
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 1: some investment bankers, some regulators, some academics. Be interesting to

640
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 1: see how the moods shifting on private markets and public

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Speaker 1: markets after things like the Virgin float. Right absolutely, Wednesday

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Speaker 1: and Thursday, Morgan Stanley has its big Australia Investment conference.

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Speaker 1: I think you're getting along anyone. You're particularly looking forward

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Speaker 1: to seeing.

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00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: Your mate Howard Marks is up from oakcho Se. But

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00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 2: on the agenda, it's all the themes you expect, AI energy,

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00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 2: what we've been speaking about today.

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Speaker 1: Actually yeah, good stuff. And then on Thursday we get

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00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 1: the latest reading of unemployment. The last one was four

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00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:55,240
Speaker 1: point one percent. Expecting much movement here. The story really

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00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: is the labor market's still pretty tight. It's probably the

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00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 1: one thing I'm not sure the RBA wouldn't want the

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00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: labor market to loosen, But in terms of their concerns

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Speaker 1: about inflation, the tight labor market's still there, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it wouldn't mind if it loosened a

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00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 2: little bit, I think, James, is what the economs would say.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, all right, Anthony. We had a question earlier

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Speaker 1: from Melanie from Victoria. If you've got a question you

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00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 1: want to send in, you can email us at Chanticleer

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00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 1: at afar dot com. You can also send us a

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00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 1: question in audio form. Just record a voice memo on

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00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 1: your phone and include your name and where you're from.

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00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: Email it Tulison. Of course, there's a little widget now

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00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 1: on the Chanticleer articles on afar dot com where you

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00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 1: can submit a question through there where loving seeing all

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00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: these questions. We'll get to as many as we can

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00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 1: over the course of the following weeks. But keep them coming,

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00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 1: all right, Anthony, it's another big week coming up. Long weekend,

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Speaker 1: Enjoy having a Monday off. I won't ask you to

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00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: help me with the statues, that's my job, but enjoy

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00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: a bit of time with the family.

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Speaker 2: You too, James, have a great weekend.

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Speaker 1: Thanks everybody, Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.

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00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 1: If you like the podcast and you want to hear more,

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Speaker 1: consider sharing or giving the podcast a review, as it

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00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: helps other listeners find us, and don't forget to follow

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. At the Financial Review, we

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00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:26,879
Speaker 1: investigate the big stories about markets, business and power. For more,

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00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 1: go to afar dot com. You can subscribe to The

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00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 1: Financial Review The Daily Habit of Successful People at afar

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00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: dot com. Slash Subscribe. Chanticle was hosted by me James

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00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 1: Thompson and Anthony McDonald. It was produced by alex Go

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00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 1: with assistance from Mandy Colan. Our theme is by alex Gou.

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00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 1: The head of premium content is Fiona Buffini

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00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 2: The Australian Financial Review