WEBVTT - What you need to know before heading to the polls

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<v S1>Nine podcasts.

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<v S2>Welcome back to Prime Time. With the election almost upon us,

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<v S2>we thought it was the perfect time to check back

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<v S2>in with Shane Wright, our trusted guide to economic stories

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<v S2>behind the politics. Shane's the senior economics correspondent for The

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<v S2>Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, and he's brilliant at

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<v S2>helping us separate the noise from the numbers. Shane Wright,

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<v S2>welcome back to Prime Time.

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<v S3>Can't believe you brought me back. But look, your poor listeners.

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<v S2>We've had six weeks of campaigning now. What has surprised

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<v S2>you economically?

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<v S3>Economically, actually, the biggest surprise apart from the start, which

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<v S3>was the stupidity of Donald Trump's tariffs and Liberation Day,

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<v S3>has been the costings being produced by the opposition on

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<v S3>the second last day, because I think the chutzpah of

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<v S3>the opposition to have been complaining about economic management for

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<v S3>such a long time and then say, oh, by the way,

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<v S3>we'll have two bigger deficits for the next two years

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<v S3>is pretty extraordinary. And you can understand why they waited

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<v S3>until the after the Thursday afternoon before the Saturday election,

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<v S3>when a third of the public have voted to come

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<v S3>out with that sort of reveal.

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<v S2>Wow. It's just it's it's astounding, isn't it?

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<v S3>Yeah. Look, we've had this whole economic, um, through line

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<v S3>from the campaign, from the coalition saying better economic managers,

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<v S3>and they're free to say that. But then when you

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<v S3>come out with the costings and you go, oh, oops,

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<v S3>by the way, and they've been complaining about tax, the

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<v S3>amount of tax being paid by Australians, fair criticism. But

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<v S3>they think their argument is we will improve the budget

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<v S3>bottom line by the end of the decade. I won't

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<v S3>hold my breath, but it's all done by higher tax.

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<v S3>It is all done by higher tax. Like one of

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<v S3>the weirder things. And if Peter Dutton, if the people

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<v S3>traveling with him, they've seen a lot of service stations

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<v S3>over the six the five weeks of the campaign and

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<v S3>the Peter Dutton campaign continues to claim that there is

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<v S3>this yurt tax coming from labor, which is the introduction

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<v S3>of higher fuel standards. The coalition is actually banking on

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<v S3>an extra $600 million by getting rid of that tax.

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<v S3>And I go, how's this? How is this so? It's

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<v S3>because they are expecting that people will pay more fuel

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<v S3>excise because their cars will not be as fuel efficient,

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<v S3>higher tax. Like it's one of the great mysteries. But

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<v S3>that's what they managed to do. So.

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<v S2>Wow. And that's the tax they're waving up front isn't it.

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<v S3>Well they're saying we're not going to go ahead with

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<v S3>it with the with the higher fuel, the better fuel standards,

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<v S3>which start from July 1st. But doing that actually means

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<v S3>they collect more tax. And it makes sense because if

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<v S3>cars are not as fuel efficient, then you burn more fuel.

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<v S3>You pay more fuel excise.

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<v S2>Wow. One of the great mysteries having you to unpick

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<v S2>it just makes so much of a difference to listening

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<v S2>to the lines coming out through the media.

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<v S3>Well, this is the media. Come on.

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<v S2>I know, I know, but but you don't see beneath

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<v S2>the story. And this is the stuff that I, I

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<v S2>am a bit fascinated by because I think we have

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<v S2>to understand rather than just hear.

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<v S3>Out more, if that's what that's what's getting you excited.

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<v S3>But yeah that's.

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<v S2>Yeah. Well sorry. Yeah. So since we last spoke, which

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<v S2>was right back at the beginning of the campaign, Trump's

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<v S2>tariffs have really come in. Cracked the market apart. What

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<v S2>do you think that's going to do to the polls.

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<v S3>Well I think Liberation Day which was April 2nd was

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<v S3>one of the key moments of the campaign because you've

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<v S3>had Peter Dutton, remember in January there he was saying,

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<v S3>we're going to have a Department of Government efficiency. We

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<v S3>all love Elon Musk. He's going to rip. We're going

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<v S3>to rip through and get rid of spending and all

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<v S3>the rest. And then Americans have got to look at him.

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<v S3>The Canadians have got to look at him. The Greenlanders

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<v S3>have got a good look at him. Hell, even the

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<v S3>penguins on heard and McDonald Island have now heard about

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<v S3>Donald Trump. And they've gone, oops a daisy. Um, like,

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<v S3>even this week, we've had, like, two really interesting pieces

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<v S3>of data out of the US. One is the economic

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<v S3>the American economy contracted through the first three months of

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<v S3>the year, which is because every business is trying to

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<v S3>put in product into the US now because of all

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<v S3>these tariffs. And the other thing which showed and also

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<v S3>we've also seen their trade figures. Australia had not run

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<v S3>a trade surplus with the United States since Harry Truman

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<v S3>was president. Okay, we have now run a surplus for

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<v S3>the last three months with the US, and it's because

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<v S3>Americans are buying gold.

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<v S2>Wow.

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<v S3>Lots of gold. Not just from Australia, but Australia is

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<v S3>a big producer of gold, of course, but from other countries.

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<v S3>And it's because gold is a traditional inflation hedge. And

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<v S3>that's what people are doing because they know investors in

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<v S3>the US know tariffs are inflationary. That's why they're buying gold.

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<v S3>That's why gold has gone to such high prices over

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<v S3>the last month or so. So yeah, April 2nd for

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<v S3>an opposition that had gone had linked itself to that Trumpian.

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<v S3>We're going to take on the world and we're going

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<v S3>to we're going to cut government spending was a major issue.

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<v S3>And people and voters here, Australians, even before Trump was elected,

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<v S3>with when did not have any love for Trump. Like

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<v S3>the support, Trump would not be successful in Australia. Like

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<v S3>we can see that in every poll that where he

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<v S3>gets asked about it. And I think that it's such

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<v S3>a key moment when everyone went, oh my God, this

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<v S3>is what Trump, Trump, Trump is Trump ism is. And

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<v S3>that has hurt. You've seen it in the polls, the

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<v S3>Canadian elections, that sort of, um, real antithesis towards what

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<v S3>Trump stands for has hurt everyone on the right or

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<v S3>the populist side of politics over the last.

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<v S2>Very interesting times, isn't it? You wouldn't have predicted this

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<v S2>back in in March, would you?

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<v S3>I have written about how Trump and those tariffs were crazy,

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<v S3>like even the numbers, like the stupidity of ultimately we

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<v S3>got the threat of 145% tariffs on China. Like it

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<v S3>is such a destabilizing aspect of it and it makes

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<v S3>no sense. And people think like his whole argument, that

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<v S3>we will pay for huge tax cuts with revenue on these,

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<v S3>on these imported products, will force people to produce everything locally. Okay.

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<v S3>So that means you don't get any revenue because there's

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<v S3>nothing being imported into the country. How the deficit just

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<v S3>blows out. And and he's running a huge like the

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<v S3>deficit has got bigger since he's taken over. So that's

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<v S3>that's that's Trump. But that's the Trump factor that's played

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<v S3>through a real key line through this whole election campaign

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<v S3>I think.

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<v S2>Yeah. It's amazing something so far away can actually be

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<v S2>so close. Um.

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<v S3>Well, I think like the the last time a US

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<v S3>president has played such a big role in an Australian election,

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<v S3>you have to go back to Harold Holt. And 1966,

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<v S3>when Lyndon Baines Johnson actually visited Australia in October that

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<v S3>year and like huge crowds, this is Pro-vietnam and LBJ

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<v S3>pro Harold Holt. And the 1966 election, which was held

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<v S3>about six weeks later, the biggest victory by any side

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<v S3>of politics in history, the Harold Holt had a huge

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<v S3>win like it was about 5743. Wow. And by 1969,

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<v S3>the Vietnam War was not so popular, and they and

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<v S3>the Liberal Party went very close to losing office in 69.

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<v S3>It finally happened in 72. But that impact of a

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<v S3>US president like we saw it in 2007, people might

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<v S3>remember when John Howard effectively said, Barack Obama, like, if

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<v S3>you if you want if Americans want, uh, terrorists to succeed,

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<v S3>vote for Barack Obama, that people forget that that's he

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<v S3>really leant in at that point. But LBJ 66 was

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<v S3>even bigger impact on an Australian election?

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<v S2>Interesting times, aren't we in? And so for someone heading

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<v S2>to the polls this Saturday, which, you know, it's tomorrow,

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<v S2>it's tomorrow. Um, what are the economic red flags or

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<v S2>promises you'd be reading the fine print on? What should

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<v S2>we be looking for?

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<v S3>Um, anything about either side saying we're going to save money?

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<v S3>Because the history of politicians saving money is a very

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<v S3>sad one. It's a very sad one. And both sides

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<v S3>are doing that. We will save x, y, z. Um,

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<v S3>like the Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher have said. Right.

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<v S3>We will improve the budget bottom line by $1 billion

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<v S3>over four years. That means still cumulative deficits of 150 billion. Um,

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<v S3>even with what Angus Taylor and Jane Hume have announced,

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<v S3>the deficits over the next four years are 137 7 billion.

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<v S3>Like so. It's huge. Neither side has really come. Has

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<v S3>been upfront about how they really improve the structural side

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<v S3>of the budget, or how they improve the speed of

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<v S3>the economy, like the policies, their policy, rats and mice

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<v S3>from both sides, rather than something that really goes to

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<v S3>how you improve the functioning of the overall economy, like,

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<v S3>and and if you go down that path, there will

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<v S3>be winners and losers for the last 20 years. Neither

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<v S3>side of politics has wanted to talk about winners and losers.

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<v S3>But in any economic reform, there are losers. Um, and

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<v S3>and no one wants to be completely upfront about that.

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<v S2>So let's let's knock on that door. Who's the loser

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<v S2>in the Liberal Party's picture? And who's the loser in

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<v S2>the Labor Party's picture at the moment as you see it?

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<v S3>Well, the loser is anyone in the public service in

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<v S3>the Liberal Party. And those numbers do not make any sense.

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<v S3>Like they just there is this suggestion and Peter Dutton

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<v S3>has leant into that camp. There's been an extra 41,000

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<v S3>public servants put into Canberra. There's only 69,000 here to

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<v S3>begin with. And that the numbers that they've like. And

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<v S3>we know what happened when the Liberal Party tried to

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<v S3>keep a lid on the public service. And there's nothing

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<v S3>wrong with keeping a lid on the public service. Absolutely

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<v S3>nothing wrong with that. But ultimately, in their last term

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<v S3>of office, which is only three years ago, they ran

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<v S3>into huge problems which required use of labour hire. The.

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<v S3>If anyone wants an idea, read the Veterans Royal Commission

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<v S3>and what happened there people mental health people died because

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<v S3>they weren't able to get access to their compensation or

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<v S3>or or ongoing financial support because of huge delays in

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<v S3>the Veterans Affairs Department.

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<v S2>We know you couldn't get through a Centrelink call line

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<v S2>for for you know, people were saying for months.

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<v S3>That's right. So that's the that's one clear loser for

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<v S3>the for the government. Like you'd be looking at anyone

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<v S3>in in the business sector. Like there's nothing really.

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<v S2>A tough enemy to take on.

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<v S3>It's a tough. Well, this is the Labor Party, but

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<v S3>there's nothing really there that says. Right. We're really supportive

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<v S3>of trying to help you find a way to be

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<v S3>more efficient, to be more productive. They've talked about competition

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<v S3>and the budget actually had a competition element. And I

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<v S3>actually think there were two really interesting policies, one from

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<v S3>either side. They're very, very different. One was Labor's promise

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<v S3>for the standardized tax deduction, which we're in a country

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<v S3>where there are more accountants than there are farmers. And

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<v S3>part of that is because of the stupidity of our

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<v S3>tax system, and the fact that so many of us

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<v S3>have to go to a tax agent. Introduction to the

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<v S3>standardized tax deduction of $1,000. That's been around as an

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<v S3>idea since the Henry tax paper. It's an efficiency gain.

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<v S3>It's not huge, but it is a step on the

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<v S3>coalition side. One of the interesting ones like it hasn't

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<v S3>got any attention. But, uh, and this only affects a

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<v S3>few people, but I think you'll resonate is the idea

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<v S3>that we need somebody, an ambassador around hostage taking. So

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<v S3>they actually have come up with this idea, right. Because

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<v S3>people are being abducted overseas, and there's this whole element

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<v S3>that goes under the under the radar of how you

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<v S3>look after the families and how you get these people back.

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<v S3>They've come up with a really interesting policy whereby you

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<v S3>actually get somebody within foreign affairs who's sort of the

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<v S3>point person, but you actually develop a way to deal

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<v S3>with that. Like it's.

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<v S2>Interesting.

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<v S3>It's an interesting policy you got. Yep. Both sides can

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<v S3>still come up with interesting or good policy. It's just

0:13:53.210 --> 0:13:55.329
<v S3>the crap that's everywhere else. That's the problem.

0:14:09.090 --> 0:14:12.570
<v S2>With me is Shane, right? The senior economics correspondent for

0:14:12.570 --> 0:14:17.410
<v S2>The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Well, let's come

0:14:17.410 --> 0:14:19.810
<v S2>back to the stuff that really affects everybody's hip pocket

0:14:19.810 --> 0:14:22.050
<v S2>as we go into the election. Cost of living was

0:14:22.050 --> 0:14:25.690
<v S2>a huge issue when we last spoke. Has any party

0:14:25.690 --> 0:14:27.970
<v S2>put forward a plan that tackles it in a serious,

0:14:27.970 --> 0:14:28.890
<v S2>long term way?

0:14:29.530 --> 0:14:33.410
<v S3>I wouldn't go that far. Neither side. Come on, come on.

0:14:33.850 --> 0:14:37.170
<v S3>Like ultimately like we got some really great inflation figures

0:14:37.170 --> 0:14:40.050
<v S3>this week. Like, and my wife and I were having

0:14:40.050 --> 0:14:43.410
<v S3>a debate about this just the other day about saying Cher.

0:14:43.450 --> 0:14:47.010
<v S3>Cher complaining about inflation is so high. And I said, well,

0:14:47.010 --> 0:14:49.450
<v S3>inflation is not high. And then I said, the other

0:14:49.450 --> 0:14:52.530
<v S3>thing is wages are going up. No they're not. I said, yes,

0:14:52.530 --> 0:14:56.410
<v S3>they are. Your wage is going up. And this is

0:14:56.410 --> 0:14:58.570
<v S3>the issue with inflation. It's when you get into a

0:14:58.570 --> 0:15:02.650
<v S3>whole cost of living argument. Um, because people look at

0:15:02.650 --> 0:15:06.610
<v S3>the price of everything and everything has gone up. Absolutely.

0:15:06.650 --> 0:15:07.090
<v S2>Absolutely.

0:15:07.130 --> 0:15:09.730
<v S3>They're absolutely right. But people don't look at what their

0:15:09.730 --> 0:15:13.050
<v S3>wages are doing either. And they go, hold on, how

0:15:13.090 --> 0:15:16.290
<v S3>am I paying for this? So this has been a

0:15:16.290 --> 0:15:19.250
<v S3>real key argument from Peter Dutton. And he has come

0:15:19.250 --> 0:15:21.770
<v S3>up with this idea. We'll have fuel excise cut for

0:15:22.210 --> 0:15:25.850
<v S3>12 months, which means in 12 months time, the cost

0:15:25.850 --> 0:15:29.330
<v S3>of your petrol will go up by $0.25 a litre. Yep.

0:15:29.650 --> 0:15:34.810
<v S3>And this one off tax offset, $1,200. Which is mind

0:15:34.850 --> 0:15:38.530
<v S3>boggling silly because this is what happened last under the

0:15:38.530 --> 0:15:41.370
<v S3>last government. And you just people get used to it.

0:15:41.370 --> 0:15:45.710
<v S3>So in two years time, everyone's going to fail. 10

0:15:45.710 --> 0:15:49.370
<v S3>million people face a $1,200 increase in their tax. So

0:15:49.730 --> 0:15:52.210
<v S3>it's just you get, you give with one hand, you

0:15:52.210 --> 0:15:53.290
<v S3>take away with the other.

0:15:53.530 --> 0:15:55.650
<v S2>Right before another election just before.

0:15:55.690 --> 0:15:59.330
<v S3>And someone and ultimately the and this is part of

0:15:59.330 --> 0:16:01.890
<v S3>their costings is the government. The opposition says we won't

0:16:01.890 --> 0:16:05.650
<v S3>go ahead with the tax cut that's been legislated already.

0:16:06.330 --> 0:16:09.930
<v S3>That's all their costings are predicated on this extra like

0:16:09.970 --> 0:16:14.170
<v S3>in 2829, there's an extra $7 billion in personal income

0:16:14.170 --> 0:16:18.250
<v S3>tax collected under the coalition that helps improves their bottom budget.

0:16:18.250 --> 0:16:21.210
<v S3>Bottom line. So you've got that going. You've got tax

0:16:21.250 --> 0:16:25.170
<v S3>going up. So really, really short term the government has

0:16:25.170 --> 0:16:28.930
<v S3>been doing this with, say, its energy subsidies, which run

0:16:28.930 --> 0:16:31.650
<v S3>out at the end of this year. I think the

0:16:31.650 --> 0:16:34.010
<v S3>reserve Bank will be finally happy that they're out of

0:16:34.050 --> 0:16:37.010
<v S3>the system, because then we can see really what's going

0:16:37.010 --> 0:16:40.610
<v S3>on in terms of the energy market, whether there really

0:16:40.610 --> 0:16:43.730
<v S3>is a reduction in price pressures across that area, and

0:16:44.010 --> 0:16:45.930
<v S3>there won't be that sort of money going back into

0:16:45.930 --> 0:16:51.410
<v S3>the economy. Like the opposition says, it's fuel excise is deflationary.

0:16:51.810 --> 0:16:54.370
<v S3>It yes, it reduces the inflation rate, but it's still

0:16:54.370 --> 0:16:59.210
<v S3>pumping $7.5 billion into the economy. At the same time,

0:16:59.650 --> 0:17:03.330
<v S3>my economics training is that would be inflationary. That's what

0:17:03.330 --> 0:17:05.609
<v S3>the reserve Bank also would be believing as well.

0:17:05.930 --> 0:17:09.410
<v S2>Very interesting times, isn't it? Um, we spoke about how

0:17:09.450 --> 0:17:12.090
<v S2>older Australians make up the majority of voters last time

0:17:12.090 --> 0:17:14.850
<v S2>we spoke. Do you think they've been a part of

0:17:14.850 --> 0:17:17.250
<v S2>this campaign at all? Do you think there has been

0:17:17.450 --> 0:17:21.609
<v S2>anything beyond lip service paid to older generations, or is

0:17:21.609 --> 0:17:24.250
<v S2>this is this really targeting the young people and their

0:17:24.250 --> 0:17:25.130
<v S2>cost of living?

0:17:25.690 --> 0:17:28.450
<v S3>Um, well, cost of living is important to older Australians,

0:17:28.450 --> 0:17:32.090
<v S3>but ultimately, like, we're really at that crux where the

0:17:32.490 --> 0:17:37.050
<v S3>Gen Z and millennials are around the same size of

0:17:37.290 --> 0:17:44.060
<v S3>voting bloc Look as, um, boomers and Xers. We're we're

0:17:44.140 --> 0:17:49.100
<v S3>on that cusp right at the moment. Um, in terms

0:17:49.100 --> 0:17:52.260
<v S3>of like the you can see like both sides have

0:17:52.260 --> 0:17:55.100
<v S3>really embraced the government's urgent care clinics.

0:17:55.300 --> 0:17:55.659
<v S2>Yeah.

0:17:55.700 --> 0:17:58.899
<v S3>Now, we know older Australians use the health system more

0:17:58.940 --> 0:18:02.060
<v S3>than younger people. And that is and they portray it

0:18:02.060 --> 0:18:04.739
<v S3>as such. Like this is helping you like. Yes, it

0:18:04.740 --> 0:18:07.820
<v S3>helps the mother who's got a kid who's done something

0:18:07.820 --> 0:18:10.460
<v S3>silly to their hand or their foot or whatever, because

0:18:10.500 --> 0:18:13.380
<v S3>children are great at that. Yeah, but it's also aimed

0:18:13.500 --> 0:18:17.060
<v S3>at older Australians who really. Yeah, chronically who need that

0:18:17.060 --> 0:18:20.699
<v S3>health service. So in that space and yeah, that's both

0:18:20.700 --> 0:18:24.300
<v S3>sides have been really promising a lot in that that space.

0:18:24.340 --> 0:18:27.020
<v S2>In Medicare space. And it's good to see because it's

0:18:27.020 --> 0:18:31.340
<v S2>been hard to hard to maintain health services in, you know,

0:18:31.380 --> 0:18:35.020
<v S2>and stay stay healthy if you can't access a doctor

0:18:35.020 --> 0:18:35.940
<v S2>at the right price.

0:18:36.060 --> 0:18:40.820
<v S3>That's right. But ultimately, like the older Australians, they've been

0:18:40.820 --> 0:18:43.540
<v S3>more peripheral to this election than in past ones. Like

0:18:43.540 --> 0:18:46.500
<v S3>if you go back, John Howard in oh seven was

0:18:46.500 --> 0:18:50.460
<v S3>promising like like billions of dollars in a straight out

0:18:50.500 --> 0:18:53.060
<v S3>handout to people on the aged pension, like.

0:18:53.980 --> 0:18:56.820
<v S2>Tax cuts don't hit the hip pocket of the retiree. Right.

0:18:56.940 --> 0:19:01.100
<v S2>That's right. You're very much nobody talks about that in

0:19:01.100 --> 0:19:03.899
<v S2>the media. But but that's the reality is if you

0:19:03.900 --> 0:19:06.419
<v S2>get a tax cut you don't you're not paying tax.

0:19:06.460 --> 0:19:09.780
<v S2>If you've got the retirement based super fund on tap. No.

0:19:09.820 --> 0:19:13.300
<v S3>That's right. And like the opposition has really pushed into

0:19:13.300 --> 0:19:16.379
<v S3>the change that the government has been pushing for the

0:19:16.380 --> 0:19:19.700
<v S3>best part of three years, which is the the tax

0:19:19.700 --> 0:19:23.860
<v S3>arrangements on people with superannuation balances of more than $3 billion,

0:19:23.859 --> 0:19:27.340
<v S3>3 billion, $3 million. Like that is still a very

0:19:27.340 --> 0:19:31.700
<v S3>small proportion. But they're not young people who have $3 million. No.

0:19:31.740 --> 0:19:34.859
<v S3>And this is where the where the rhetoric has really

0:19:34.859 --> 0:19:38.260
<v S3>pushed into, oh, this is in inheritance text. Peter Dutton

0:19:38.260 --> 0:19:40.780
<v S3>has used that in the last couple of days. So

0:19:40.780 --> 0:19:44.980
<v S3>that's really aimed at older voters more probably his base

0:19:45.140 --> 0:19:45.980
<v S3>higher income.

0:19:46.020 --> 0:19:47.859
<v S2>Do you think the libs will block that?

0:19:47.900 --> 0:19:49.060
<v S3>Yeah. That's their plan.

0:19:49.100 --> 0:19:50.139
<v S2>That's their plan.

0:19:50.460 --> 0:19:55.700
<v S3>Part of their saving is they cost out blocking that,

0:19:55.940 --> 0:19:58.700
<v S3>not going ahead with that change because it costs money

0:19:58.740 --> 0:20:00.340
<v S3>not to go ahead with that change.

0:20:00.380 --> 0:20:02.460
<v S2>And talking to people out there, the biggest fear around

0:20:02.460 --> 0:20:05.820
<v S2>that one from the mass market is that that's not indexed.

0:20:06.540 --> 0:20:10.820
<v S3>Yeah, it's not indexed. But at a government will index it. Yeah,

0:20:10.859 --> 0:20:12.419
<v S3>it will absolutely get indexed.

0:20:12.460 --> 0:20:15.420
<v S2>Because, you know, an average young person today, millennial coming

0:20:15.420 --> 0:20:18.300
<v S2>through that has 30 years of super will compound their

0:20:18.300 --> 0:20:22.780
<v S2>way to $2 million balances. Yeah. Before they retire easily.

0:20:23.100 --> 0:20:25.020
<v S3>Yeah. They'll still be short of the 3 million. But

0:20:25.020 --> 0:20:28.020
<v S3>you can see like even the government's own numbers, you

0:20:28.020 --> 0:20:31.340
<v S3>can see how it picks up. But their argument is one,

0:20:31.340 --> 0:20:34.820
<v S3>we've got to put the policy in place. Okay. But two,

0:20:34.820 --> 0:20:37.780
<v S3>to they would know in their own heads. A future

0:20:37.820 --> 0:20:44.020
<v S3>government will index that, otherwise they will have angry retirees

0:20:44.020 --> 0:20:45.740
<v S3>with a lot of money in their super saying, what

0:20:45.740 --> 0:20:48.780
<v S3>the hell are you doing to us? But ultimately, once

0:20:48.780 --> 0:20:53.220
<v S3>you're in that superannuation space, there are huge concessions going on.

0:20:53.260 --> 0:20:57.420
<v S3>Everyone says, that's my money. Absolutely. But you're being forced

0:20:57.420 --> 0:21:00.659
<v S3>to put in being putting away your money into that

0:21:00.660 --> 0:21:04.419
<v S3>and you're getting a huge tax concession to do it. Yeah.

0:21:04.900 --> 0:21:06.899
<v S3>So that's the trade off in that space.

0:21:07.140 --> 0:21:09.340
<v S2>Now talk to me about one issue that I've heard

0:21:09.340 --> 0:21:11.460
<v S2>very little about. And I would really like to have

0:21:11.460 --> 0:21:15.580
<v S2>heard more about. And that's deeming rates on the aged pension.

0:21:15.900 --> 0:21:18.740
<v S2>I thought I heard something in the budget that the

0:21:18.740 --> 0:21:21.300
<v S2>Labour government was going to maintain the freeze. But then

0:21:21.300 --> 0:21:24.379
<v S2>I've heard in the last week that they weren't. What's

0:21:24.380 --> 0:21:25.340
<v S2>the truth of this?

0:21:26.260 --> 0:21:28.900
<v S3>There's no truth to them. Like there was a this

0:21:28.900 --> 0:21:31.180
<v S3>is being put out like these are parts of the

0:21:31.180 --> 0:21:32.620
<v S3>subterranean campaign.

0:21:32.660 --> 0:21:35.300
<v S2>Things, people. Yeah, but it's a significant number of people

0:21:35.300 --> 0:21:37.020
<v S2>that operate off the income test.

0:21:37.060 --> 0:21:37.380
<v S3>Oh, yeah.

0:21:37.540 --> 0:21:38.180
<v S2>In Australia.

0:21:38.420 --> 0:21:41.540
<v S3>The argument that the government, like there wasn't there was

0:21:41.540 --> 0:21:44.380
<v S3>a thought that maybe because the deeming rate should be changed,

0:21:44.540 --> 0:21:45.700
<v S3>it is actually too low.

0:21:45.740 --> 0:21:48.139
<v S2>It's very low. It's very low, but it will impact.

0:21:48.140 --> 0:21:52.900
<v S2>There's about 450,000 people that will be hurt who are

0:21:52.900 --> 0:21:56.100
<v S2>retired and reliant on the aged pension, who will lose

0:21:56.100 --> 0:21:59.300
<v S2>a good chunk of their pension. Yeah. If if that

0:21:59.300 --> 0:22:00.179
<v S2>number moves.

0:22:00.380 --> 0:22:02.700
<v S3>Yeah, but I'm putting them on my budget hard hat

0:22:02.700 --> 0:22:06.180
<v S3>right now. I'm going to assume the deeming rate was

0:22:06.220 --> 0:22:11.380
<v S3>at 0.25% at the moment. If you are getting if

0:22:11.380 --> 0:22:13.179
<v S3>you were only getting 0.25.

0:22:13.300 --> 0:22:14.500
<v S2>And 2.25.

0:22:14.540 --> 0:22:18.540
<v S3>And 2.25, if you're getting that when the cash rate

0:22:18.580 --> 0:22:20.300
<v S3>is at 4.1.

0:22:20.460 --> 0:22:21.940
<v S2>So where do you think it will go to? Because

0:22:21.940 --> 0:22:24.179
<v S2>we're going to see that by 30th June. So, you know,

0:22:24.180 --> 0:22:25.780
<v S2>I've got a book going to print and I need

0:22:25.780 --> 0:22:27.700
<v S2>to change, change the numbers in it.

0:22:28.540 --> 0:22:30.899
<v S3>The Prime Minister got asked this and he said no change.

0:22:31.540 --> 0:22:33.780
<v S3>He got he he he got asked that question. He

0:22:33.780 --> 0:22:35.979
<v S3>got asked that question. He knew the numbers on the

0:22:35.980 --> 0:22:39.540
<v S3>deeming rate. So he knew that this issue is in

0:22:39.540 --> 0:22:41.460
<v S3>the ether with people because.

0:22:41.460 --> 0:22:43.340
<v S2>So you think there'll be no change this year?

0:22:43.340 --> 0:22:45.860
<v S3>I don't think they'll change this year. It needs to change.

0:22:46.020 --> 0:22:46.420
<v S2>Yeah.

0:22:47.420 --> 0:22:52.260
<v S3>Because ultimately it's it's not it's actually not true. The

0:22:52.300 --> 0:22:54.460
<v S3>deeming rate at the moment is not true.

0:22:54.619 --> 0:22:57.380
<v S2>No. It means everybody's getting an incredible discount on their

0:22:57.380 --> 0:23:00.300
<v S2>Commonwealth seniors health card and their, their pension. And it's

0:23:00.300 --> 0:23:03.900
<v S2>great for for retirees. Right I love it the rate

0:23:03.900 --> 0:23:06.020
<v S2>at this level and I I'm watching for it. And

0:23:06.020 --> 0:23:08.780
<v S2>a lot of people don't know what the deeming rate is.

0:23:08.820 --> 0:23:10.580
<v S2>If you're if you're on the aged pension using the

0:23:10.580 --> 0:23:13.900
<v S2>income test, you'll know. But you may not realize it's

0:23:13.940 --> 0:23:16.500
<v S2>a it's a hot button for July June 30th.

0:23:16.540 --> 0:23:19.820
<v S3>Yeah. But if I but I'm thinking about taxpayers and

0:23:19.820 --> 0:23:22.580
<v S3>future taxpayers. No, it's a bad deal right at the

0:23:22.580 --> 0:23:24.180
<v S3>moment because.

0:23:24.500 --> 0:23:26.060
<v S2>Like, I'm thinking about real people.

0:23:26.100 --> 0:23:28.060
<v S3>That's right. The deeming rate never used to be such

0:23:28.060 --> 0:23:32.020
<v S3>a political hotbed. Yeah, up until we got into Covid,

0:23:32.020 --> 0:23:36.419
<v S3>where it was changed and that made sense because cash

0:23:36.420 --> 0:23:42.740
<v S3>rate collapsed, share markets really fell away. Um, and but

0:23:42.740 --> 0:23:45.899
<v S3>then it became this political thing saying, oh, hold on.

0:23:46.580 --> 0:23:49.180
<v S3>The it should have been changed in the, in the

0:23:49.220 --> 0:23:52.380
<v S3>2022 budget. It wasn't it should have been changed in

0:23:52.380 --> 0:23:55.179
<v S3>Jim Chalmers first budget. It wasn't. They've just let it

0:23:55.180 --> 0:23:58.619
<v S3>go because they now go, oh God, if we change it,

0:23:59.180 --> 0:24:01.219
<v S3>the politics of it is terrible for us.

0:24:01.340 --> 0:24:03.980
<v S2>And yet, I have heard in the last week that

0:24:03.980 --> 0:24:07.459
<v S2>it might get changed by both parties because. So I'm

0:24:07.460 --> 0:24:09.740
<v S2>watching this one going, is anyone going to speak and

0:24:09.740 --> 0:24:11.900
<v S2>are we just going to get a notification three days

0:24:11.900 --> 0:24:14.340
<v S2>after the election that it's going up? Yeah.

0:24:14.500 --> 0:24:17.980
<v S3>It wasn't in either costings of of the major parties.

0:24:18.180 --> 0:24:20.379
<v S2>Okay. That's good to know. Yeah I'm glad you're reading

0:24:20.380 --> 0:24:23.300
<v S2>below the below the line. Let's talk about the overarching

0:24:23.340 --> 0:24:25.939
<v S2>Australian economy as we head into this election. What's the

0:24:25.940 --> 0:24:28.659
<v S2>biggest risk that the next government will inherit?

0:24:29.260 --> 0:24:34.380
<v S3>Two words Donald Trump. He's by far the biggest risk. Yeah,

0:24:34.420 --> 0:24:38.740
<v S3>he's by far the biggest risk. Um, which, because of

0:24:38.740 --> 0:24:42.060
<v S3>what he's doing. What how it affects China. That's an issue.

0:24:42.100 --> 0:24:46.940
<v S3>Whether he has unleashed, uh, a whole new world of

0:24:46.940 --> 0:24:50.820
<v S3>higher tariffs around the world, gumming up the way that

0:24:50.820 --> 0:24:56.060
<v S3>we move goods and services and people around the world. Like,

0:24:56.100 --> 0:25:01.540
<v S3>people complain about neo liberalism and globalization, but the world

0:25:01.540 --> 0:25:03.500
<v S3>has got to a point where we have the fewest

0:25:03.500 --> 0:25:05.419
<v S3>number of people in poverty as a share of the

0:25:05.420 --> 0:25:09.740
<v S3>population in history. It has been good. Yes, we feel

0:25:09.820 --> 0:25:14.460
<v S3>it's tough sometimes, but that's been the benefit of the last,

0:25:14.700 --> 0:25:19.780
<v S3>like the last 60, 70 years of increased linkages between

0:25:19.780 --> 0:25:24.060
<v S3>countries around the world economically. Donald Trump is trying to

0:25:24.740 --> 0:25:29.060
<v S3>upend that. Go for it. But it comes at a

0:25:29.060 --> 0:25:34.140
<v S3>huge cost. And that remains the by far the biggest

0:25:34.140 --> 0:25:39.020
<v S3>single risk to every economy, not just either Anthony Albanese

0:25:39.020 --> 0:25:39.900
<v S3>or Peter Dutton.

0:25:40.100 --> 0:25:43.060
<v S2>And which government do you think is most experienced to

0:25:43.060 --> 0:25:45.940
<v S2>be able to cope with that or able better positioned?

0:25:45.980 --> 0:25:47.500
<v S2>Is there any real?

0:25:47.540 --> 0:25:50.540
<v S3>I think you're almost like a bottle in the ocean,

0:25:51.020 --> 0:25:53.660
<v S3>like you're bobbing around like we are a middle power.

0:25:53.980 --> 0:25:57.859
<v S3>What are we? The 12th largest economy in the world? Um,

0:25:58.540 --> 0:26:04.420
<v S3>but ultimately, in this case, like Donald Trump is part

0:26:04.420 --> 0:26:06.460
<v S3>of the problem with Donald Trump is that he he

0:26:06.460 --> 0:26:10.020
<v S3>listens or deals with the the person he most recently

0:26:10.020 --> 0:26:13.939
<v S3>listened to. That's his idea. And off he goes. And

0:26:13.940 --> 0:26:17.740
<v S3>there's no rationale. He he's not he just doesn't understand

0:26:17.740 --> 0:26:20.180
<v S3>how the economy works. He looks at it as a

0:26:20.220 --> 0:26:25.659
<v S3>win lose mercantilist approach, which was great in the 17th century.

0:26:26.180 --> 0:26:27.500
<v S3>Not in the 21st.

0:26:27.900 --> 0:26:31.140
<v S2>Interesting times, isn't it? All right, so we're we're, uh.

0:26:31.140 --> 0:26:33.979
<v S2>We're at the end. For someone undecided, what's the one

0:26:33.980 --> 0:26:37.860
<v S2>economic issue you'd like to see them weighing up most

0:26:37.859 --> 0:26:40.100
<v S2>heavily before they cast their vote?

0:26:41.060 --> 0:26:45.379
<v S3>Uh, I should say productivity. But most people, they fall asleep,

0:26:45.420 --> 0:26:46.100
<v S3>and you use.

0:26:46.300 --> 0:26:48.740
<v S2>I think productivity is so important.

0:26:48.940 --> 0:26:52.140
<v S3>It's very important. But trying to find the policies that

0:26:52.180 --> 0:26:56.540
<v S3>improve productivity. Good luck with that. Absolutely. Good luck.

0:26:56.780 --> 0:26:59.859
<v S2>Does it does it impact things like trade unions and

0:27:00.260 --> 0:27:02.860
<v S2>construction and all these things that we see? Well, I'm

0:27:02.859 --> 0:27:04.540
<v S2>up in Queensland and we've seen a lot of that

0:27:04.540 --> 0:27:05.420
<v S2>grind to a halt.

0:27:06.020 --> 0:27:11.139
<v S3>Yeah we do, but this is me being nerdy.

0:27:11.180 --> 0:27:12.820
<v S2>The the I love nerdy.

0:27:12.820 --> 0:27:15.540
<v S3>The Productivity Commission, about 6 or 7 weeks ago released

0:27:15.540 --> 0:27:22.500
<v S3>a report on construction sector productivity and said it has fallen. Absolutely.

0:27:23.020 --> 0:27:26.300
<v S3>But Australia's productivity in construction has not fallen by as

0:27:26.380 --> 0:27:30.139
<v S3>much as the United States, as Britain, as Spain, as

0:27:30.180 --> 0:27:34.300
<v S3>other parts of Europe. And part of it is people

0:27:34.700 --> 0:27:37.460
<v S3>like think of the think of your splashback if you're

0:27:37.460 --> 0:27:41.820
<v S3>building a new home. Okay, I go back 15 years ago,

0:27:42.900 --> 0:27:46.820
<v S3>just plain old white tiles. Now people are demanding really

0:27:46.859 --> 0:27:52.540
<v S3>upmarket levels of finishes to their their homes. That is

0:27:52.540 --> 0:27:55.900
<v S3>coming at a cost in terms of productivity. So the

0:27:55.900 --> 0:27:58.260
<v S3>homes that we are building, they are different to what

0:27:58.260 --> 0:28:01.140
<v S3>we were building even ten, 15 years ago. And this

0:28:01.140 --> 0:28:04.780
<v S3>is a global issue that that demand for a better

0:28:04.780 --> 0:28:08.700
<v S3>quality is feeding into lower productivity.

0:28:09.580 --> 0:28:11.220
<v S2>Where else are the productivity problems?

0:28:11.820 --> 0:28:16.980
<v S3>Um, the we've seen like Covid blew that out as

0:28:16.980 --> 0:28:21.500
<v S3>we saw like because of the the global supply chains,

0:28:21.500 --> 0:28:24.419
<v S3>we are requiring more stuff to come in.

0:28:25.190 --> 0:28:27.510
<v S2>So where are the ones we can control? Where is

0:28:27.510 --> 0:28:29.550
<v S2>the productivity we can actually impact?

0:28:29.750 --> 0:28:32.429
<v S3>Well this is it. Like this. Again the PC report

0:28:32.430 --> 0:28:34.310
<v S3>actually pointed out part of the problem is that our

0:28:34.310 --> 0:28:38.710
<v S3>building construction sector is just filled with really like mum

0:28:38.750 --> 0:28:42.510
<v S3>and dad and son or mum and dad businesses, and

0:28:42.510 --> 0:28:45.510
<v S3>they are never going to they don't drive productivity as

0:28:45.510 --> 0:28:48.070
<v S3>much as people say. Small business is the saviour. It

0:28:48.070 --> 0:28:52.670
<v S3>is not they. They don't have the ability or the

0:28:52.670 --> 0:28:57.190
<v S3>scale to really improve productivity by like the the big

0:28:57.190 --> 0:29:02.630
<v S3>hope is for, say us off site construction, like where

0:29:02.630 --> 0:29:06.510
<v S3>you build modular, modular and stuff like that. Like the

0:29:06.510 --> 0:29:10.190
<v S3>the during the campaign, someone actually visited a place out

0:29:10.190 --> 0:29:14.590
<v S3>in Perth where they're using machines to build homes almost

0:29:14.590 --> 0:29:18.710
<v S3>within a day, just laying bricks. That's that is not

0:29:18.710 --> 0:29:21.910
<v S3>something a, like a team of bricklayers are going to do,

0:29:22.190 --> 0:29:27.470
<v S3>for instance, that requires what we call capital deepening spending money,

0:29:27.590 --> 0:29:31.590
<v S3>investing in new tech to make things more productive. But

0:29:31.630 --> 0:29:36.830
<v S3>that's just construction part of the issue. We're trying to

0:29:36.870 --> 0:29:41.030
<v S3>measure productivity in a world where 70 to 80% of

0:29:41.030 --> 0:29:46.270
<v S3>the economy is services, and trying to improve productivity in

0:29:46.270 --> 0:29:51.030
<v S3>the service sector is notoriously difficult and notoriously difficult to measure.

0:29:51.510 --> 0:29:56.110
<v S3>Like we are living longer that. So that's a factor

0:29:56.110 --> 0:29:58.710
<v S3>of the health system. But that is not a productivity

0:29:58.710 --> 0:30:00.550
<v S3>that doesn't come up as productivity.

0:30:00.830 --> 0:30:02.310
<v S2>So where do we vote for that? How do we

0:30:02.310 --> 0:30:03.030
<v S2>vote for that?

0:30:03.070 --> 0:30:04.910
<v S3>No I know. No I don't know if we can

0:30:04.910 --> 0:30:06.390
<v S3>vote for it, but we can demand it.

0:30:06.950 --> 0:30:08.910
<v S2>Well, what else you got to leave me with? One

0:30:08.910 --> 0:30:11.510
<v S2>one issue people can vote for when they're when they're

0:30:11.550 --> 0:30:13.270
<v S2>out there thinking about the economy. If we all want

0:30:13.270 --> 0:30:15.870
<v S2>to fix the economy. What could we what could we

0:30:15.870 --> 0:30:16.550
<v S2>vote for?

0:30:16.590 --> 0:30:20.870
<v S3>Yeah, we'd only you would look at either the policies

0:30:20.870 --> 0:30:23.430
<v S3>that you think are the best in terms of inflation

0:30:23.430 --> 0:30:24.670
<v S3>or wages growth.

0:30:24.910 --> 0:30:25.190
<v S2>Yeah.

0:30:25.510 --> 0:30:29.630
<v S3>That's that's all policies that like I'm never going to

0:30:29.630 --> 0:30:30.870
<v S3>tell someone how to vote because.

0:30:30.910 --> 0:30:31.950
<v S2>No, none of us.

0:30:31.950 --> 0:30:34.670
<v S3>Are so many different ways that people like.

0:30:35.270 --> 0:30:37.150
<v S2>I just like to weigh up the smart stuff, you know?

0:30:37.190 --> 0:30:39.990
<v S2>And you're you're the nerd. We get to speak to this.

0:30:39.990 --> 0:30:40.710
<v S2>You tell us.

0:30:40.830 --> 0:30:43.550
<v S3>This is about the 11th election campaign I've been on,

0:30:43.550 --> 0:30:47.390
<v S3>like I spent a week with with Albanese, for instance. Um,

0:30:47.990 --> 0:30:50.510
<v S3>and we were I still remember we were in at

0:30:50.510 --> 0:30:54.510
<v S3>the seat of Deakin down in Melbourne, whereby this is

0:30:54.510 --> 0:30:59.310
<v S3>trying to get, um, like there'd been a house there

0:30:59.430 --> 0:31:02.550
<v S3>in this particular, this little cul de sac of a

0:31:02.590 --> 0:31:04.870
<v S3>house that had been affected. It was at the end

0:31:04.870 --> 0:31:08.030
<v S3>of its life. So social housing is going in there.

0:31:08.030 --> 0:31:13.950
<v S3>They're building two fairly quickly, two homes on the same block,

0:31:14.150 --> 0:31:19.510
<v S3>which would suit a single parent. Okay. They're doing it

0:31:19.510 --> 0:31:23.190
<v S3>relatively quickly, but ultimately that's better land use, which again,

0:31:23.430 --> 0:31:26.110
<v S3>comes into productivity. And the fact that our housing sector

0:31:26.110 --> 0:31:29.150
<v S3>is just a mess as well. Just where we build,

0:31:29.150 --> 0:31:32.030
<v S3>how many people we're building. We've just we've fallen so

0:31:32.030 --> 0:31:35.100
<v S3>far behind. That's another podcast that'll go for 5 or

0:31:35.100 --> 0:31:37.950
<v S3>6 days about problems in the housing sector. But that

0:31:37.950 --> 0:31:42.990
<v S3>is a that is an example of where government policy

0:31:42.990 --> 0:31:46.950
<v S3>is actually doing something. And it's it's a cul de

0:31:46.950 --> 0:31:49.870
<v S3>sac at a time. Like it's really difficult to measure.

0:31:49.870 --> 0:31:53.670
<v S3>But you can see ultimately in the next like that,

0:31:53.830 --> 0:31:56.670
<v S3>that site will be finished within the next three months.

0:31:57.150 --> 0:32:00.030
<v S3>There'll be there'll be two small families living in there,

0:32:00.070 --> 0:32:02.030
<v S3>in one in a site that there used to be

0:32:02.030 --> 0:32:04.790
<v S3>just one in a house that couldn't be lived in anymore.

0:32:05.190 --> 0:32:07.190
<v S3>So that that's.

0:32:07.190 --> 0:32:09.350
<v S2>The speed we've got to operate at to fix these problems,

0:32:09.350 --> 0:32:12.469
<v S2>isn't it? It's frightening. And and both parties have got

0:32:12.470 --> 0:32:13.070
<v S2>to do that stuff.

0:32:13.230 --> 0:32:16.590
<v S3>They do absolutely have to both get into that space. Yeah.

0:32:16.630 --> 0:32:19.550
<v S2>Um, Shane, we're not going to tell anyone how to vote.

0:32:19.550 --> 0:32:22.030
<v S2>Any last tips for people as they're heading to the polls?

0:32:22.350 --> 0:32:26.590
<v S3>Get a sausage, get a sausage or or find something sweet.

0:32:26.590 --> 0:32:27.469
<v S3>Whatever you like.

0:32:28.110 --> 0:32:30.470
<v S2>We'll let you go back to the newsroom so that

0:32:30.470 --> 0:32:32.110
<v S2>you can keep the news flowing to us for the

0:32:32.110 --> 0:32:34.830
<v S2>next two days. We greatly appreciate you taking time out

0:32:34.830 --> 0:32:35.750
<v S2>to come on the show.

0:32:35.790 --> 0:32:37.270
<v S3>No troubles. Beck, have a good day.

0:32:37.310 --> 0:32:41.870
<v S2>You too. Thank you for listening to Prime Time. Shane.

0:32:41.870 --> 0:32:44.430
<v S2>Thank you for being such a wealth of knowledge. We

0:32:44.470 --> 0:32:48.070
<v S2>hope this has given everyone some last minute ideas to

0:32:48.110 --> 0:32:51.510
<v S2>take in as they approach the polls tomorrow. I'd love

0:32:51.510 --> 0:32:54.350
<v S2>to hear from prime timers in an email. If you've

0:32:54.390 --> 0:32:56.350
<v S2>got thoughts on what's going on out there and what

0:32:56.350 --> 0:32:59.190
<v S2>should be important to everyone, please drop me a message.

0:32:59.350 --> 0:33:01.790
<v S2>And don't forget to rate, review and follow us on

0:33:01.790 --> 0:33:07.110
<v S2>your podcast platform and subscribe to our newsletter at Prime Timers. Net.

0:33:07.150 --> 0:33:09.430
<v S2>My name is Beck Wilson. Stay tuned for our next

0:33:09.430 --> 0:33:12.870
<v S2>episode and in the meantime, make your prime time count.