1 00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:04,400 S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to Inside Politics from 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:06,480 S1: the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. 3 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:10,880 S1: This week we have our very special guest star and 4 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,440 S1: favourite of the podcast, Shane Wright, chief economics correspondent, joining 5 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,320 S1: me from Canberra. Hello, Shane. 6 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:17,959 S2: Hello. And I think it's about time we had the 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,000 S2: Melrose Place music playing. As I come on. 8 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,360 S1: Every time we make that reference, we age ourselves because 9 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,320 S1: you know, we're both generation X, so Melrose Place was like, 10 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,280 S1: it takes up. It looms large in our consciousness, but 11 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:31,880 S1: not for anyone younger than. 12 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:37,000 S2: Don't go there. Just don't go there with any definitive 13 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:38,680 S2: figure in that space. 14 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,680 S1: No. Anyway, we are here to talk about figures. Thank 15 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:43,760 S1: you for that segue, because it's been a bit of 16 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,920 S1: an emotional rollercoaster this week for Mortgagees. As you know, 17 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,240 S1: I am one of those, so I take these matters 18 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,880 S1: very seriously. On Tuesday, the reserve Bank governor, Michelle Bullock, 19 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,560 S1: gave a speech where she said that inflation was too high. 20 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,880 S1: The bank was going to do whatever it took to 21 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,560 S1: get inflation back into the acceptable target range of 2 22 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,360 S1: to 3%. She said that putting off mortgage rate hikes 23 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,680 S1: would only lead to more pain down the track. There's 24 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,360 S1: no point delaying, you know, ripping off the band aid. 25 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:15,600 S1: Higher unemployment and higher inflation would only ensue. So on 26 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,120 S1: Tuesday she was talking tough and things were looking grim. 27 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,200 S1: I was quaking in my boots. But then on Wednesday, 28 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,920 S1: the clouds parted a little bit. What happened on Wednesday, Shane? 29 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:26,440 S2: Well, your boots got cheaper. 30 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:28,679 S1: The literally the. 31 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:33,240 S2: Price. The price of footwear actually fell according to the ABS. 32 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:35,520 S1: I don't know, not at the not at the places 33 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,119 S1: I'm buying it, but carry on. 34 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,560 S2: This says more about where you buy rather than anything else, 35 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,520 S2: but also that you're a woman of high taste. Um, yeah. 36 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,880 S2: This the inflation figures that we got for June from 37 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:52,400 S2: the ABS on, on Wednesday morning. We're very interesting in 38 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:57,520 S2: the fact that they really showed, particularly at the headline level. 39 00:01:57,520 --> 00:01:59,640 S2: We'll get to the underlying level in a second. But 40 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:04,040 S2: headline that inflation is much lower than what the Bank feared, 41 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,560 S2: what Treasury feared, and what a lot of analysts had feared. 42 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:12,160 S2: Like it came in, it dropped from 4 to 3.8%. 43 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,720 S2: To put it in perspective, the RBA had in early 44 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,200 S2: May said we get to June. Inflation will be running 45 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,720 S2: at 4.8%. Federal Treasury thought it could even be five. 46 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:24,480 S1: So it's terribly high. 47 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,880 S2: That is a big miss. And remember they made that 48 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:32,440 S2: calculation knowing that the say the federal government's cut in 49 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,120 S2: excise and the the little slice that's been taken off 50 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,360 S2: because of GST that had been fully factored into what 51 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,960 S2: had happened. So inflation, the big headline number was lower. 52 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:48,120 S2: Petrol is lower. But there are other things that are falling, aka, 53 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,720 S2: the new pair of boots that you've been eyeing off 54 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,919 S2: have got cheaper. Men's clothing has got cheaper. I know 55 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,200 S2: you love it. I know you love scrambled eggs for 56 00:02:56,200 --> 00:03:00,030 S2: breakfast in the morning the price of eggs had come down. uh, 57 00:03:00,070 --> 00:03:03,830 S2: veggies had come down. Even even if you want to 58 00:03:03,830 --> 00:03:06,670 S2: have a tipple at the end of the day, wine 59 00:03:06,669 --> 00:03:08,669 S2: had got cheaper through the last month. 60 00:03:08,750 --> 00:03:12,990 S1: And furniture, household appliances, Lamb lamb's been very expensive for 61 00:03:12,990 --> 00:03:15,750 S1: a long time. Yeah. And then on the other side, 62 00:03:15,750 --> 00:03:18,430 S1: the biggest price rises were in building and construction, which 63 00:03:18,430 --> 00:03:21,510 S1: is bad news for anyone who hopes that the housing 64 00:03:21,510 --> 00:03:25,350 S1: pressures will ease further and also electricity prices, which is 65 00:03:25,350 --> 00:03:28,950 S1: confusing because we keep hearing from the national regulator that 66 00:03:28,990 --> 00:03:31,510 S1: wholesale prices are actually going down and they're being cut. 67 00:03:31,510 --> 00:03:34,910 S2: That's right. And you'll actually see electricity prices fall in 68 00:03:34,910 --> 00:03:39,030 S2: the next month. So this is if just think of it, 69 00:03:39,030 --> 00:03:41,830 S2: you've got to think of inflation as one big pie 70 00:03:42,150 --> 00:03:46,590 S2: divvied up into 12 pieces, one month for one for 71 00:03:46,590 --> 00:03:51,390 S2: each month. The July slice from last year will come out. 72 00:03:51,590 --> 00:03:55,630 S2: This in the next measure. That July slice last year 73 00:03:55,630 --> 00:03:59,910 S2: includes a 30% increase in electricity prices in Sydney and Canberra, 74 00:04:00,070 --> 00:04:02,350 S2: and a big one in Melbourne, which is all to 75 00:04:02,350 --> 00:04:05,630 S2: do with the end of subsidies that the states and 76 00:04:05,630 --> 00:04:08,990 S2: the feds had put in place. So you will that 77 00:04:09,030 --> 00:04:11,510 S2: like there's going to be an uplift from petrol prices, 78 00:04:11,510 --> 00:04:14,869 S2: but the electricity prices are finally going to get back 79 00:04:14,870 --> 00:04:19,029 S2: to something that is measurable and understandable fairly soon, even 80 00:04:19,029 --> 00:04:23,030 S2: in the the housing construction stuff, which is a really 81 00:04:23,029 --> 00:04:26,670 S2: big part of the the CPI picture, the pace at 82 00:04:26,670 --> 00:04:31,789 S2: which the, um, that inflation in that area had been 83 00:04:31,790 --> 00:04:34,950 S2: going up is actually subsiding a little bit. Some of 84 00:04:34,950 --> 00:04:37,670 S2: it's due to perhaps oil not being as quite as expensive, 85 00:04:37,670 --> 00:04:41,029 S2: but I think the federal budget is actually taking a 86 00:04:41,029 --> 00:04:44,950 S2: bit of demand out of that sector. Um, which that's 87 00:04:44,950 --> 00:04:47,789 S2: not the normal way that federal budgets, a lot of 88 00:04:47,830 --> 00:04:50,230 S2: macro economists think federal budgets should work. You should be 89 00:04:50,230 --> 00:04:53,110 S2: taking money out. They don't often go have a hit 90 00:04:53,110 --> 00:04:56,789 S2: to confidence, which stops consumers spending, which has an inflationary 91 00:04:56,990 --> 00:04:59,630 S2: or deflationary effect. That might be what we're seeing play 92 00:04:59,630 --> 00:05:00,510 S2: out at the moment. 93 00:05:00,710 --> 00:05:02,109 S1: Yeah, I want to get on to that in a 94 00:05:02,110 --> 00:05:04,390 S1: minute and ask you more about that. But in terms 95 00:05:04,390 --> 00:05:06,830 S1: of the political effects of this sort of ease off 96 00:05:06,830 --> 00:05:11,070 S1: of inflation, inflation is the most pernicious kind of really 97 00:05:11,070 --> 00:05:13,990 S1: economic force in terms of people's living standards, the way 98 00:05:13,990 --> 00:05:17,390 S1: people feel, I think, within an economy and also politically, 99 00:05:17,430 --> 00:05:19,589 S1: it just makes us so angry at the government when 100 00:05:19,589 --> 00:05:22,109 S1: we feel like our living standards are going backwards and 101 00:05:22,110 --> 00:05:23,990 S1: it's in our faces all the time, because we're going 102 00:05:23,990 --> 00:05:25,989 S1: to the petrol bowser or we're going to the supermarket, 103 00:05:26,029 --> 00:05:28,510 S1: we're like, wow, things are so expensive and my wages 104 00:05:28,510 --> 00:05:31,870 S1: aren't keeping up. There's. Inflation has now fallen for three 105 00:05:31,870 --> 00:05:34,470 S1: consecutive months, and the One Nation vote has sort of 106 00:05:34,510 --> 00:05:39,110 S1: flattened over the last few months. Is this causation or correlation? Shane. Right. 107 00:05:39,150 --> 00:05:41,750 S2: It may be too early to say causation, but there's 108 00:05:41,750 --> 00:05:44,750 S2: definitely a correlation going on. And I think like, and 109 00:05:44,750 --> 00:05:46,990 S2: you can see that around the world where you have 110 00:05:46,990 --> 00:05:52,310 S2: high inflation, populists on the left or the right always 111 00:05:52,310 --> 00:05:55,270 S2: do well. And I don't think I'm getting too far 112 00:05:55,270 --> 00:05:59,070 S2: out of the political mainstream in and saying One Nation 113 00:05:59,070 --> 00:06:02,870 S2: is a right wing populist force, and they have really 114 00:06:02,870 --> 00:06:05,310 S2: been buoyed by what's going on in terms of cost 115 00:06:05,350 --> 00:06:08,110 S2: of living. And you can see the way, say, Pauline 116 00:06:08,110 --> 00:06:11,630 S2: Hanson talks about it. She she understands that quite well 117 00:06:11,630 --> 00:06:13,750 S2: in terms of trying to say, we will do something 118 00:06:13,750 --> 00:06:18,230 S2: to make cost of living more affordable. And you're exactly 119 00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:21,430 S2: right in terms of, say, the price of oil and 120 00:06:21,430 --> 00:06:27,109 S2: petrol that is always in people's faces. And so people 121 00:06:27,110 --> 00:06:32,350 S2: feel real. It's always a discussion point, even in the workplace. 122 00:06:32,350 --> 00:06:35,110 S2: How much did you pay for petrol? One thing there's 123 00:06:35,110 --> 00:06:37,589 S2: not as many people using petrol like we can see 124 00:06:37,870 --> 00:06:40,990 S2: the use of unleaded has is falling really quickly. 125 00:06:41,310 --> 00:06:44,190 S1: Is that because of the introduction of EVs into the market? 126 00:06:44,470 --> 00:06:47,270 S2: EVs are saying you can start to see the impact 127 00:06:47,270 --> 00:06:50,590 S2: of them. And the fact that like the I was 128 00:06:50,630 --> 00:06:53,390 S2: actually looking at some work, some data out of the 129 00:06:53,390 --> 00:06:57,380 S2: industry department just this week where the amount of unleaded 130 00:06:57,380 --> 00:07:02,140 S2: petrol being used Is has fallen by about 3,040% over 131 00:07:02,140 --> 00:07:06,260 S2: the last 15 years, and it's really falling quickly. 132 00:07:06,860 --> 00:07:09,540 S1: Michelle Bullock, the RBA governor, did allude to that on 133 00:07:09,540 --> 00:07:11,620 S1: or she talked about that on Tuesday because she said 134 00:07:11,620 --> 00:07:14,580 S1: that basically the economy is much more resilient to oil 135 00:07:14,580 --> 00:07:16,140 S1: shocks than it used to be, because we're not as 136 00:07:16,140 --> 00:07:18,660 S1: dependent on oil as we were, say, in the 1970s. 137 00:07:19,260 --> 00:07:20,940 S1: There is a. But though I want to ask about 138 00:07:20,940 --> 00:07:23,420 S1: petrol prices, because the halving of the fuel excise that 139 00:07:23,420 --> 00:07:26,020 S1: the government announced back in April and then extended for 140 00:07:26,020 --> 00:07:30,580 S1: a month very benevolently, that's finally ending this Sunday, I believe. 141 00:07:30,580 --> 00:07:32,500 S1: So aren't we going to see petrol prices just shoot 142 00:07:32,500 --> 00:07:35,940 S1: back up again and then fuel inflation? Pun intended. 143 00:07:36,220 --> 00:07:39,020 S2: Yes, I love I love a good pun. I love 144 00:07:39,060 --> 00:07:42,140 S2: a good pun. And you're right. You will see petrol 145 00:07:42,140 --> 00:07:47,100 S2: push up towards $2 a litre again. But it. Remember we. 146 00:07:47,140 --> 00:07:49,700 S2: Was it the second or third week of March? It 147 00:07:49,700 --> 00:07:55,780 S2: was $2.50 a litre. So these are huge swings. What 148 00:07:55,780 --> 00:07:59,740 S2: that does to people and their spending patterns, and it'll 149 00:07:59,740 --> 00:08:02,100 S2: come back to what else is going on through the 150 00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:04,380 S2: economy right at the moment will be really interesting in 151 00:08:04,380 --> 00:08:07,060 S2: terms of the overall. And this gets to the underlying 152 00:08:07,100 --> 00:08:10,700 S2: inflation story, which is where the Reserve Bank's really focused, 153 00:08:10,980 --> 00:08:15,580 S2: because the underlying inflation measure, which strips out the price 154 00:08:15,580 --> 00:08:19,140 S2: of oil, uh, because it tries to lop out the 155 00:08:19,140 --> 00:08:21,340 S2: big things, the things that go up the most and 156 00:08:21,340 --> 00:08:24,260 S2: the things that fall the most. And believe me, things 157 00:08:24,260 --> 00:08:28,020 S2: do their prices that do fall, they lop them out. 158 00:08:28,380 --> 00:08:30,660 S2: And that that was actually a bit lower than what 159 00:08:30,660 --> 00:08:33,700 S2: the reserve Bank had been anticipating as well. And that's 160 00:08:33,700 --> 00:08:36,740 S2: why there's been this big change in what people's expectations 161 00:08:36,740 --> 00:08:38,940 S2: are around where interest rates are going to go through 162 00:08:38,940 --> 00:08:40,260 S2: this year and into next. 163 00:08:40,740 --> 00:08:43,179 S1: Okay. You talked about the budget before and the measures 164 00:08:43,179 --> 00:08:45,660 S1: that were taken by the government. They copped a lot 165 00:08:45,660 --> 00:08:48,340 S1: of bad publicity after that budget in May. A lot 166 00:08:48,340 --> 00:08:52,579 S1: of people, particularly investors, business people, were criticising the taxation measures, 167 00:08:52,820 --> 00:08:56,620 S1: mostly the capital gains tax changes. I wonder, did all 168 00:08:56,660 --> 00:09:00,740 S1: of that negative media coverage actually impact demand and people's 169 00:09:00,740 --> 00:09:03,100 S1: feeling about the economy more generally, do you think, and 170 00:09:03,100 --> 00:09:05,540 S1: maybe lead to this result, which is taking a bit 171 00:09:05,540 --> 00:09:08,020 S1: of demand out of the economy because people are scared 172 00:09:08,020 --> 00:09:09,420 S1: or cautious or anxious? 173 00:09:09,620 --> 00:09:12,100 S2: All three. But I think you're right. I think you 174 00:09:12,100 --> 00:09:14,060 S2: could mount that argument. And we saw it in, say, 175 00:09:14,059 --> 00:09:18,780 S2: the consumer confidence measures, which really nosedived very quickly after 176 00:09:18,780 --> 00:09:22,340 S2: the budget, even though. And it's that has been that 177 00:09:22,340 --> 00:09:25,860 S2: has rebuilt because ultimately people have worked out. Hold on. 178 00:09:25,860 --> 00:09:28,860 S2: I'm not a I'm not a property investor. I don't 179 00:09:28,860 --> 00:09:31,980 S2: hold I'm not negatively gearing a property and I'm not 180 00:09:31,980 --> 00:09:37,620 S2: a hi tech start up entrepreneur like they are. That 181 00:09:37,620 --> 00:09:42,780 S2: Venn diagram is a pretty small Venn diagram of people. Um, and, 182 00:09:42,820 --> 00:09:45,780 S2: but there is definitely been that hit to confidence, which 183 00:09:45,780 --> 00:09:48,340 S2: I think is what's feeding into it. Like there is 184 00:09:48,660 --> 00:09:53,020 S2: like even on Thursday, uh, NAB announced that they'd seen a, 185 00:09:53,059 --> 00:09:55,980 S2: like a fairly sizable fall in the number of people 186 00:09:55,980 --> 00:09:59,860 S2: wanting housing loans. I will guarantee you now that they 187 00:09:59,860 --> 00:10:03,540 S2: are from investors, which was the whole which is ultimately 188 00:10:03,540 --> 00:10:07,180 S2: the government's whole aim. The government has not been shy, saying, look, 189 00:10:07,460 --> 00:10:11,260 S2: we want we don't want as many investors buying existing homes. 190 00:10:11,420 --> 00:10:13,860 S2: We want first home buyers to be doing that. Yeah. 191 00:10:14,020 --> 00:10:15,939 S2: So you look at that, you look at what's been 192 00:10:15,940 --> 00:10:19,420 S2: going on in terms of house values. The property market has. 193 00:10:19,900 --> 00:10:23,500 S2: It was already Sydney and Melbourne even before well before 194 00:10:23,540 --> 00:10:27,260 S2: the the budget came out with the three interest rate rises, 195 00:10:27,260 --> 00:10:31,380 S2: which they haven't fully flowed through the economy yet. Sydney 196 00:10:31,380 --> 00:10:38,500 S2: and Melbourne were going backwards. It now looks like Perth, Adelaide, Hobart, 197 00:10:38,500 --> 00:10:42,020 S2: Canberra have joined them. And this goes to an issue 198 00:10:42,020 --> 00:10:46,740 S2: called the wealth effect, which Michelle Bullock touched upon this week, saying, well, 199 00:10:47,100 --> 00:10:50,980 S2: if that if the housing market is slowing rather quickly, 200 00:10:51,179 --> 00:10:54,700 S2: consumers don't feel as confident. They don't use their their 201 00:10:54,809 --> 00:10:56,970 S2: homes as a bank card. They don't need to go 202 00:10:56,970 --> 00:11:00,130 S2: buy new furniture. What was one of the things prices 203 00:11:00,130 --> 00:11:03,809 S2: fell this in the last month? The price of furniture, uh, 204 00:11:03,850 --> 00:11:07,770 S2: household textiles and household appliances, other things that you'd need 205 00:11:07,770 --> 00:11:09,449 S2: to buy if you're if you wanted to buy a 206 00:11:09,450 --> 00:11:12,610 S2: new home or you're updating a home. They also fell. 207 00:11:12,610 --> 00:11:16,209 S2: So I think that's telling you something about the broader 208 00:11:16,210 --> 00:11:19,810 S2: impact of the budget, what it's done to confidence and 209 00:11:19,809 --> 00:11:21,090 S2: feeding into inflation. 210 00:11:21,690 --> 00:11:25,650 S1: They're all sort of highly discretionary spends, I suppose. Everybody's 211 00:11:25,650 --> 00:11:29,570 S1: sitting on old couches quite happily, including myself. Michelle Bullock 212 00:11:29,570 --> 00:11:33,010 S1: did mention low productivity growth as a major problem in 213 00:11:33,010 --> 00:11:36,810 S1: our economy. This is an increasingly a sort of political issue. 214 00:11:37,330 --> 00:11:39,810 S1: She said it was that productivity growth was the only 215 00:11:39,809 --> 00:11:43,330 S1: way to lift living standards. And I was reading about this. 216 00:11:43,330 --> 00:11:47,370 S1: Weak productivity in this country has barely grown since 2016, 217 00:11:47,410 --> 00:11:50,610 S1: which is ten years. You'll compliment me on my maths there. 218 00:11:50,970 --> 00:11:53,370 S1: What can the government do to lift productivity because this 219 00:11:53,370 --> 00:11:55,530 S1: is such a handbrake on economic growth, isn't it. And 220 00:11:55,530 --> 00:11:58,050 S1: we're not going to sort of see lifting living standards 221 00:11:58,050 --> 00:12:01,250 S1: and better ourselves and better our children's lives until the 222 00:12:01,250 --> 00:12:03,130 S1: government gets its act together on this. 223 00:12:03,170 --> 00:12:05,170 S2: Well, I'm going to push back and say it's not 224 00:12:05,170 --> 00:12:11,330 S2: the government's job around productivity. It's like this like, and 225 00:12:12,130 --> 00:12:15,050 S2: around the world, people, especially in this country, what will 226 00:12:15,090 --> 00:12:18,570 S2: the government do for X, Y, Z? The history of 227 00:12:18,570 --> 00:12:23,770 S2: productivity is technology. Now we actually like from the Industrial 228 00:12:23,770 --> 00:12:28,449 S2: Revolution onto the advent of refrigeration powered flight. The government 229 00:12:28,450 --> 00:12:30,570 S2: didn't have a role in those sorts of things. It 230 00:12:30,570 --> 00:12:33,770 S2: was it was new. They were new ideas. And we're 231 00:12:33,809 --> 00:12:39,650 S2: actually seeing new ideas, aka artificial intelligence. The country that's 232 00:12:39,690 --> 00:12:42,370 S2: at the epicenter of AI, right at the moment, is 233 00:12:42,370 --> 00:12:45,810 S2: the only country where productivity growth has lifted, and that's 234 00:12:45,809 --> 00:12:46,970 S2: the United States. 235 00:12:47,210 --> 00:12:49,250 S1: So is there nothing the government can do? I mean, 236 00:12:49,410 --> 00:12:53,210 S1: can it not sort of boost investment in technology or, 237 00:12:53,250 --> 00:12:56,330 S1: you know, back certain technologies that are going to improve productivity. 238 00:12:56,370 --> 00:12:59,010 S1: I mean, the government subsidizes all kinds of industries. Why 239 00:12:59,010 --> 00:13:01,689 S1: can't it back ones that that improve productivity? 240 00:13:01,690 --> 00:13:04,929 S2: And there was a $10 billion productivity package in the budget, 241 00:13:04,929 --> 00:13:07,650 S2: which most people have missed. A lot of that was 242 00:13:07,650 --> 00:13:10,410 S2: to do with red tape, which yep, that is one 243 00:13:10,410 --> 00:13:13,650 S2: thing you can do. But there was some really good 244 00:13:13,650 --> 00:13:18,530 S2: research out about a month ago from E61, which actually 245 00:13:18,530 --> 00:13:23,410 S2: went to your very question. And they were saying, well, 246 00:13:23,410 --> 00:13:25,970 S2: managers are in this country, probably aren't as good as 247 00:13:25,970 --> 00:13:28,890 S2: those in the United States or elsewhere. And this is 248 00:13:28,890 --> 00:13:33,010 S2: where this is the deployment of knowledge, which is ultimately 249 00:13:33,010 --> 00:13:35,730 S2: that's how you improve the operation of a business. They 250 00:13:35,730 --> 00:13:39,170 S2: become more productive. And they actually gave very good examples 251 00:13:39,170 --> 00:13:43,209 S2: of American firms that might set up shop here in Australia. 252 00:13:43,650 --> 00:13:47,449 S2: Have they face the same IR laws, the same planning laws, 253 00:13:47,929 --> 00:13:52,770 S2: the same workforce laws as their Australian based competitors, but 254 00:13:52,770 --> 00:13:54,850 S2: they outperform them on productivity. 255 00:13:54,970 --> 00:13:55,689 S1: They get better. 256 00:13:55,690 --> 00:13:57,490 S2: At. They better at it. They gave a good example, 257 00:13:57,530 --> 00:14:01,970 S2: say Costco versus Woolworths and Coles. And Aldi is also 258 00:14:01,970 --> 00:14:04,490 S2: in that space as well. They are from outside, but 259 00:14:04,490 --> 00:14:08,410 S2: they have different managerial operations and systems. 260 00:14:09,330 --> 00:14:11,930 S1: What about AI then? Because we are seeing data centres 261 00:14:11,929 --> 00:14:14,770 S1: being built in Australia, is that the solution here that 262 00:14:14,770 --> 00:14:17,730 S1: we just need data centres, we need to become full, fully, 263 00:14:17,770 --> 00:14:21,410 S1: sort of adoptive of AI technology, and then our productivity 264 00:14:21,450 --> 00:14:24,450 S1: might boost itself just like the United States is. 265 00:14:24,730 --> 00:14:27,770 S2: Look, this is like if we're in the back, we 266 00:14:27,810 --> 00:14:30,130 S2: move back. You know, you and I love the 1980s. 267 00:14:30,170 --> 00:14:32,250 S2: The music was better. We went back to the 90s. 268 00:14:32,290 --> 00:14:34,290 S1: I was I was a child in the 1990s. I 269 00:14:34,290 --> 00:14:35,210 S1: was a baby. But anyway. 270 00:14:35,250 --> 00:14:39,330 S2: Oh come on. You go back to the 1980s and say, right, Australia, look, 271 00:14:39,370 --> 00:14:43,490 S2: these these things called personal computers. No, we won't use them. 272 00:14:43,490 --> 00:14:46,650 S2: I'm going to stick with my typewriter. Imagine where Australia 273 00:14:46,650 --> 00:14:51,770 S2: would be if the nation's companies said no to new technology. 274 00:14:51,770 --> 00:14:54,650 S2: And it's the it's, it's not just the technology itself, 275 00:14:54,650 --> 00:14:56,170 S2: it's the use of it. 276 00:14:56,610 --> 00:14:58,730 S1: But is that what Australian companies are doing? Because we're 277 00:14:58,730 --> 00:15:01,770 S1: always hearing the narrative that Australians are early adopters of technology. 278 00:15:01,810 --> 00:15:03,010 S1: We love our technology. 279 00:15:03,010 --> 00:15:07,890 S2: Like how in the 1980s, where the fastest adopters of VHS. We. 280 00:15:07,930 --> 00:15:08,570 S2: We were. 281 00:15:09,010 --> 00:15:11,130 S1: But what about now? I mean, what about the adoption 282 00:15:11,130 --> 00:15:13,250 S1: of AI? And can we see how quickly that's being 283 00:15:13,250 --> 00:15:14,770 S1: rolled out across the economy? 284 00:15:14,810 --> 00:15:17,290 S2: Look, that's why I'm not going to be overly critical 285 00:15:17,290 --> 00:15:20,650 S2: of Australian business because this is relatively new. The US 286 00:15:20,690 --> 00:15:28,010 S2: is really at the leading edge like companies like Commonwealth Bank, Qantas. 287 00:15:28,450 --> 00:15:32,890 S2: They are using AI in really interesting ways to try 288 00:15:32,890 --> 00:15:35,330 S2: and boost their productivity levels. And that's what that is 289 00:15:35,370 --> 00:15:38,090 S2: actually what you want to see. Building the data centres 290 00:15:38,210 --> 00:15:43,170 S2: is one thing, but it's using the power of AI 291 00:15:43,210 --> 00:15:47,010 S2: that those data centres enable. That's where we actually need 292 00:15:47,050 --> 00:15:50,170 S2: the business, the business sector to lift its game and 293 00:15:50,170 --> 00:15:54,240 S2: their workers even even in a workforce, people using AI 294 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,120 S2: in different ways and then passing that information around. That's why, 295 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,120 S2: like we're almost into the whole argument about work from 296 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,640 S2: home if people aren't in the room with other people. Mhm. 297 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,480 S2: You can't it's harder to bounce ideas off each other. 298 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:09,440 S2: That's why there are a lot of businesses say, I 299 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:13,320 S2: want my staff out in the business because they're better 300 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:17,240 S2: bouncing ideas off that generates ideas, generates productivity. 301 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:19,640 S1: Yeah, that's absolutely true. I mean, the way that I 302 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,120 S1: use AI in my work now, which is never to 303 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,400 S1: craft copy, I make that very, very clear. None of 304 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:26,640 S1: us use it for that, but we use it for 305 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:28,880 S1: research and for transcription and all sorts of things. And 306 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,120 S1: I've learned all of that from being with my very 307 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,000 S1: clever colleagues. Shane. We've got to leave it there. I 308 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,320 S1: do thank technology because technology means that I get to 309 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,880 S1: talk to you in Canberra, and here I am in Sydney, 310 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:40,600 S1: and yet we get to connect via the power of 311 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:41,200 S1: the internet. 312 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,440 S2: Thank goodness for the internet. So many good things. And 313 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,400 S2: so you and I can go on YouTube and watch 314 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,080 S2: 80s 90s TV shows. Even better. 315 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,760 S1: Actually, I'm taking my daughter through the 80s and 90s 316 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:54,800 S1: movies now. So we're about to do back to the future. 317 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:57,560 S1: And we just did Karate Kid, which really holds up. 318 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,440 S2: My wife is rewatching charmed at the moment. If you're interested. 319 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:01,840 S2: You'd be a charmed fan. 320 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,680 S1: Yeah, I loved charmed. It was great. It was really 321 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,920 S1: great TV. All right, Shane, it's always a pleasure. Thank you. 322 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:09,959 S2: Always a pleasure. Good to see you again. 323 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,200 S1: Okay, we're going to segue now to sunny Melbourne, where 324 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,159 S1: there's been plenty of political action this week. Joining us 325 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,960 S1: from the age we have Chip Le grand Victorian state 326 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,400 S1: political editor who is a first I think on our podcast. 327 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:30,080 S1: So welcome. 328 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:31,439 S3: Thank you. How are you? 329 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,920 S1: Good. It's such a pleasure to have you. And you've 330 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,640 S1: been so busy. Listeners will no doubt know by now 331 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,760 S1: that Victorians have a new premier. Ben Carroll, I just 332 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:41,680 S1: want to ask you a few questions about the federal 333 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:45,720 S1: implications of the Victorian leadership change, because Ben Carroll, when 334 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,719 S1: he gave his first speech as newly anointed premier, he 335 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:53,080 S1: very much framed his takeover of the leadership as essential 336 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,440 S1: to guard against what he said was the risk of 337 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,600 S1: a coalition One Nation government being formed at the next 338 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,520 S1: Victorian election, which is in November. What do you make 339 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,040 S1: of that justification from Ben Carroll? 340 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,879 S3: So where Victoria's sitting right now is, we are the 341 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,560 S3: first state where one nation is coming for a labor government. 342 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:19,320 S3: So in the federal sphere, particularly and in South Australian election, 343 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:25,440 S3: we saw what happens to the coalition when one nation 344 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:29,640 S3: gets a surge of support. And and obviously, that's that's 345 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:33,760 S3: been a very destructive impact on the federal coalition in 346 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,800 S3: terms of their their polling numbers. And we saw what 347 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:40,800 S3: happened to the number of Liberal MPs who were wiped 348 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:44,399 S3: out of the the South Australian Parliament because of the 349 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,720 S3: support for One Nation. So here what's happening is that 350 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:53,000 S3: even though. Yes, one Nation has also damaged the coalition 351 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:57,880 S3: and is a threat to the coalition, particularly in regional seats. 352 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,560 S3: And the National Party is really feeling the brunt of 353 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:05,080 S3: that here. As you know, they are elsewhere. One nation 354 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:09,919 S3: is eating into labor support in traditional labour seats in 355 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:15,040 S3: the outer suburbs of Melbourne's west and north. Now, these 356 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,119 S3: are seats that, even if you had a surge of 357 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,320 S3: support for the coalition for a Change of Government, the 358 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,880 S3: Liberal Party doesn't win those seats. One nation could. And 359 00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,119 S3: so this is a different level of threat to the 360 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:33,280 S3: Labor Party. And it's that, uh, and it's really the 361 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,720 S3: culmination of that pressure and the likelihood that they're going 362 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,040 S3: to lose the election that led to the change of leadership. 363 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,760 S1: Okay. So is it possible to say then, on what 364 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,919 S1: basis people would change their vote from labor to one nation? Because, 365 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,510 S1: as you say, the eating into the coalition. Support from 366 00:19:51,510 --> 00:19:53,830 S1: One Nation has been. I suppose you could say around 367 00:19:53,830 --> 00:19:58,750 S1: conservative issues, right wing populist kind of issues, some economic narrative, 368 00:19:58,750 --> 00:20:01,270 S1: some culture war issues, but mostly as well that the 369 00:20:01,270 --> 00:20:04,230 S1: coalition is completely sort of collapsed as a party. What 370 00:20:04,230 --> 00:20:06,350 S1: kind of a person is moving from a labor vote 371 00:20:06,350 --> 00:20:09,270 S1: to a one nation vote in Victoria, in those outer 372 00:20:09,270 --> 00:20:11,830 S1: urban seats that you're talking about? And what issues are 373 00:20:11,830 --> 00:20:12,590 S1: they moving on? 374 00:20:12,950 --> 00:20:17,949 S3: Well, I mean, so the classic case is a, um, say, 375 00:20:17,990 --> 00:20:20,629 S3: you know, someone who works in a, whether it's a 376 00:20:20,630 --> 00:20:26,310 S3: working class profession or a lower wage profession, life's difficult. 377 00:20:26,670 --> 00:20:31,990 S3: You're living in, um, suburbs that are poorly relative to 378 00:20:32,030 --> 00:20:35,270 S3: the more established eastern suburbs, poorly serviced by public transport, 379 00:20:35,710 --> 00:20:38,869 S3: by schools, by other services. So these are people who 380 00:20:38,910 --> 00:20:42,310 S3: have lived for the past 12 years under a labor government. 381 00:20:42,790 --> 00:20:45,470 S3: And indeed, don't forget in Victoria, we've we've only had 382 00:20:45,470 --> 00:20:48,310 S3: four years this century where there hasn't been a labor government. Mhm. 383 00:20:48,790 --> 00:20:51,470 S3: And they feel they're not being looked after. And so 384 00:20:52,230 --> 00:20:55,550 S3: these are these are areas where that are growing really quickly. 385 00:20:56,550 --> 00:21:01,030 S3: So you've got a mix of new migrants, new arrivals, 386 00:21:01,030 --> 00:21:05,630 S3: but also people that feel like the population growth is, is, 387 00:21:05,750 --> 00:21:08,430 S3: is faster than the government's capacity to keep up and 388 00:21:08,430 --> 00:21:12,510 S3: to provide them what they need. So there's that real 389 00:21:12,550 --> 00:21:17,710 S3: sense of resentment and, and, and a sense that you're 390 00:21:17,710 --> 00:21:20,550 S3: being let down by, by a Labour government. 391 00:21:20,590 --> 00:21:23,150 S1: Yeah. Okay. So you might be a traditional Labour voter, 392 00:21:23,150 --> 00:21:26,030 S1: but Labour is basically taking you for granted and you're 393 00:21:26,030 --> 00:21:28,350 S1: under a lot of pressure and you don't see anyone who, 394 00:21:28,390 --> 00:21:32,510 S1: at a political level, who's looking to credibly ease that pressure. 395 00:21:32,869 --> 00:21:34,870 S1: So you may as well sort of chuck a vote 396 00:21:34,869 --> 00:21:37,510 S1: one nation's way because they're making some big promises. 397 00:21:37,550 --> 00:21:40,510 S3: Yeah. You're you're really looking to kind of to blow 398 00:21:40,510 --> 00:21:43,990 S3: up the system and force them to start again and 399 00:21:43,990 --> 00:21:45,629 S3: start thinking about you in a different way. 400 00:21:45,670 --> 00:21:48,629 S1: Okay. So we're talking about voting intention based on polls, 401 00:21:48,710 --> 00:21:51,389 S1: because when it comes to reality, One Nation doesn't actually 402 00:21:51,390 --> 00:21:53,469 S1: have much of a presence in Victoria, does it? I 403 00:21:53,470 --> 00:21:55,350 S1: think you said yesterday when we were talking that they 404 00:21:55,350 --> 00:21:58,750 S1: have two candidates in the whole of the state of Victoria, 405 00:21:58,750 --> 00:22:01,189 S1: and they don't have an official leader. So if you're 406 00:22:01,190 --> 00:22:03,750 S1: going to vote one nation at the next Victorian election, 407 00:22:03,750 --> 00:22:05,550 S1: it's going to be a zombie vote, isn't it? 408 00:22:06,310 --> 00:22:09,030 S3: We had we had got one upper house MP who 409 00:22:09,030 --> 00:22:12,030 S3: was there since the previous election who got in on 410 00:22:12,030 --> 00:22:16,390 S3: a very small vote. Um, we've got one other declared 411 00:22:16,390 --> 00:22:19,910 S3: candidate who ran in the by election and did quite well. 412 00:22:20,070 --> 00:22:23,990 S3: Um pushed the libs quite hard there. Um but yes, 413 00:22:23,990 --> 00:22:27,790 S3: beyond that, uh, Pauline Hanson hasn't said who her leader 414 00:22:27,790 --> 00:22:32,190 S3: is going to be here. Rob Harris reported this week that, uh, 415 00:22:32,230 --> 00:22:35,230 S3: they're expected to announce a bunch of their upper house 416 00:22:35,270 --> 00:22:40,189 S3: MPs on Friday. Maybe the lower house MPs will follow. 417 00:22:40,190 --> 00:22:42,229 S3: So this is a deliberate strategy by One Nation. We're 418 00:22:42,230 --> 00:22:44,350 S3: going to have like a candidate dump on a Friday, 419 00:22:44,710 --> 00:22:46,990 S3: which will make it very hard for for anyone to 420 00:22:47,030 --> 00:22:49,989 S3: go around and scrutinize who's who in the zoo as 421 00:22:49,990 --> 00:22:52,470 S3: far as the One Nation candidates. But until this point, 422 00:22:52,470 --> 00:22:55,909 S3: we don't really have any Victorian policies other than a 423 00:22:55,910 --> 00:22:59,830 S3: promise to scrap the treaty that the government reached with 424 00:22:59,869 --> 00:23:04,430 S3: First Nations people. There's no Victorian specific policies that One 425 00:23:04,430 --> 00:23:07,630 S3: Nation is talking about. It's very much a hand-me-down grab 426 00:23:08,270 --> 00:23:11,669 S3: bag of their their policies that that that Pauline Hanson 427 00:23:11,670 --> 00:23:13,750 S3: talks on any given day about in in Canberra. 428 00:23:13,950 --> 00:23:17,109 S1: Yeah. So if they don't have enough particularly lower house 429 00:23:17,109 --> 00:23:19,909 S1: candidates to field, you know, enough seats in the in 430 00:23:19,950 --> 00:23:22,510 S1: the lower house in Victoria, aren't those votes just going 431 00:23:22,510 --> 00:23:24,310 S1: to flow back to the coalition. And they could end 432 00:23:24,310 --> 00:23:28,710 S1: up benefiting Jess Wilson, the Liberal opposition leader. 433 00:23:29,030 --> 00:23:32,230 S3: They look they've said they're going to stand in most 434 00:23:32,230 --> 00:23:34,590 S3: seats or if not in all seats, I think they 435 00:23:34,590 --> 00:23:36,390 S3: might have promised to stand in all seats. So look, 436 00:23:36,430 --> 00:23:40,270 S3: if it's not all it'll be close to. Um, and, 437 00:23:40,470 --> 00:23:43,070 S3: you know, there are a lot of seats where one 438 00:23:43,070 --> 00:23:46,070 S3: nation is going to have a serious impact. I mean, the, 439 00:23:46,470 --> 00:23:48,540 S3: the contest that we're heading into in November is going 440 00:23:48,540 --> 00:23:51,660 S3: to be a genuine three way contest. Whatever the merits 441 00:23:51,660 --> 00:23:55,859 S3: of One Nation's policies and and their political organization, all 442 00:23:55,900 --> 00:23:58,940 S3: the polls suggest we're headed for a genuine three way contest. 443 00:23:58,940 --> 00:24:01,860 S3: And that's going to play out in so many different ways, 444 00:24:01,859 --> 00:24:05,699 S3: depending on depending on where you are. So, um, I mean, 445 00:24:05,700 --> 00:24:08,419 S3: for the Liberal Party, they think they're in a good 446 00:24:08,420 --> 00:24:11,620 S3: position because so long as they can finish second in seats, 447 00:24:12,020 --> 00:24:15,060 S3: then they can win those seats either on One Nation 448 00:24:15,060 --> 00:24:19,419 S3: preferences or on the preference of labor voters who under 449 00:24:19,420 --> 00:24:21,500 S3: no circumstances are going to want to want to preference 450 00:24:21,500 --> 00:24:24,580 S3: one Nation. Um, but but it's going to be such 451 00:24:24,580 --> 00:24:27,540 S3: a complicated election, like the old pendulums that we used 452 00:24:27,540 --> 00:24:29,020 S3: to refer to. When you look at your sort of 453 00:24:29,020 --> 00:24:31,580 S3: your half dozen or your eight marginal seats that are 454 00:24:31,580 --> 00:24:33,460 S3: the ones in the in play in a traditional red 455 00:24:33,460 --> 00:24:36,820 S3: blue contest, that's not really what this election is about. 456 00:24:36,859 --> 00:24:40,340 S3: There's going to be, you know, um, uh, red on 457 00:24:40,340 --> 00:24:43,940 S3: orange contest, blue on orange, you know, blue on green, 458 00:24:44,420 --> 00:24:46,540 S3: teal on blue. It's a, it's a bit of a 459 00:24:46,580 --> 00:24:48,060 S3: kaleidoscope of colours really. 460 00:24:48,300 --> 00:24:51,300 S1: It's going to be exciting and very interesting. Victorians are 461 00:24:51,340 --> 00:24:55,020 S1: obviously very fed up with the close and the potentially 462 00:24:55,020 --> 00:24:59,379 S1: corrupt relationship between the labor machine and the CFMEU, which 463 00:24:59,380 --> 00:25:02,620 S1: has sewn up various big construction projects in your state, 464 00:25:02,660 --> 00:25:07,179 S1: costs the taxpayer many, many billions of dollars and normalised 465 00:25:07,180 --> 00:25:10,419 S1: a lot of very thuggish and criminal conduct on building 466 00:25:10,420 --> 00:25:14,020 S1: sites there. I wonder, what's your opinion tip on how 467 00:25:14,220 --> 00:25:17,340 S1: that taint spreads to federal labor and to the Prime 468 00:25:17,340 --> 00:25:20,940 S1: Minister himself, or did he inoculate himself when he put 469 00:25:20,940 --> 00:25:25,460 S1: the CFMEU into administration and he kicked John Setka, the 470 00:25:25,460 --> 00:25:27,860 S1: former head of the CFMEU, out of the Labor Party? 471 00:25:28,460 --> 00:25:30,780 S3: Yeah, I mean, it's not I mean, obviously it's not 472 00:25:31,580 --> 00:25:33,419 S3: limited to Victoria because we can see what's going on 473 00:25:33,420 --> 00:25:36,580 S3: with Queensland and the inquiry up there into the into 474 00:25:36,580 --> 00:25:40,420 S3: the CFMEU. But there is something particular but and particularly 475 00:25:40,420 --> 00:25:45,899 S3: Victorian about the this political nexus that developed between the 476 00:25:46,020 --> 00:25:52,540 S3: CFMEU who was run by completely odious people and particularly the, um, 477 00:25:52,660 --> 00:25:57,300 S3: the previous administration of Daniel Andrews, Daniel Andrews as Premier, um, 478 00:25:57,340 --> 00:26:01,820 S3: you know, drew a lot of factional support, um, from that, 479 00:26:01,820 --> 00:26:04,100 S3: that part of the, a part of the left faction 480 00:26:04,700 --> 00:26:09,740 S3: and really the, the rise of the CFMEU here coincided 481 00:26:09,740 --> 00:26:12,900 S3: with a realignment of the sort of factional tectonic plates 482 00:26:12,900 --> 00:26:17,580 S3: under Andrews where, um the right was diminished. Um the 483 00:26:17,580 --> 00:26:22,980 S3: left expanded, almost developed a political monopoly and that flowed 484 00:26:22,980 --> 00:26:26,460 S3: through to the kind of leverage then that the CFMEU 485 00:26:26,500 --> 00:26:30,940 S3: had in terms of, um, ensuring which government sites they 486 00:26:30,940 --> 00:26:31,740 S3: got to control. 487 00:26:32,020 --> 00:26:34,100 S1: Mhm. And do you think, I mean, do you think 488 00:26:34,140 --> 00:26:37,420 S1: it's bad for the entire labor brand, like federally as well, 489 00:26:37,460 --> 00:26:40,419 S1: or as Anthony Albanese sort of done enough to separate himself. 490 00:26:40,420 --> 00:26:43,700 S1: He's obviously not from Victoria. And he did take a 491 00:26:43,700 --> 00:26:47,700 S1: stand against John Secker in particular, only after his thuggish 492 00:26:47,700 --> 00:26:50,860 S1: and criminal behavior was sort of, you know, reported on 493 00:26:50,859 --> 00:26:53,619 S1: extensively by Nick McKenzie and others from our stable. 494 00:26:53,859 --> 00:26:56,940 S3: I'd be I'd be surprised if this taint spreads to 495 00:26:57,380 --> 00:27:00,220 S3: Anthony Albanese, mainly because, I mean, one of the big 496 00:27:00,220 --> 00:27:03,820 S3: differences in state and federal governments is state governments have 497 00:27:03,820 --> 00:27:08,540 S3: to deliver projects like rail tunnels and road tunnels and 498 00:27:08,540 --> 00:27:10,619 S3: and big infrastructure projects in a way that the federal 499 00:27:10,619 --> 00:27:13,580 S3: government doesn't really have to do. So they don't get 500 00:27:13,580 --> 00:27:19,300 S3: their hands dirty in the same way, I think where the, um, 501 00:27:19,859 --> 00:27:25,020 S3: probably the similarities for, for Anthony Albanese or the concern 502 00:27:25,020 --> 00:27:27,100 S3: if he was looking on in terms of what happened, 503 00:27:27,340 --> 00:27:33,580 S3: what's happened in Victoria is that having a political dominance 504 00:27:33,580 --> 00:27:36,500 S3: over a party by a by a particular faction, the 505 00:27:36,500 --> 00:27:40,860 S3: left being in sort of Uber control of the Labor Party, 506 00:27:41,060 --> 00:27:43,300 S3: and one person in the case of, say, going back 507 00:27:43,300 --> 00:27:47,689 S3: to Daniel Andrews, having so much personal control over the 508 00:27:47,690 --> 00:27:50,130 S3: affairs of of the party in the way that we 509 00:27:50,130 --> 00:27:53,290 S3: saw on display with Anthony Albanese at the at the 510 00:27:53,290 --> 00:27:59,970 S3: national conference last week. That's not healthy and it can 511 00:27:59,970 --> 00:28:03,330 S3: come unstuck really quickly. I mean, it's the speed of 512 00:28:03,330 --> 00:28:05,810 S3: which with things have happened here. I think that's taken 513 00:28:06,490 --> 00:28:10,250 S3: a lot of people by surprise. And now you have 514 00:28:10,609 --> 00:28:14,050 S3: Ben Carroll, who's from the from the right faction. And 515 00:28:14,050 --> 00:28:17,930 S3: he is busy, um, dismantling some of the key things 516 00:28:17,930 --> 00:28:21,850 S3: that happened under, under the, the nearly 12 years of 517 00:28:21,850 --> 00:28:27,609 S3: his of his predecessors. So I think the lesson is 518 00:28:27,609 --> 00:28:31,010 S3: that the Labor Party is a much healthier place when 519 00:28:31,010 --> 00:28:33,889 S3: the party is balanced in terms of the competing interests 520 00:28:33,890 --> 00:28:36,330 S3: of the different factions. And when you don't have too 521 00:28:36,330 --> 00:28:39,610 S3: much power concentrated in the hands of any particular individual. 522 00:28:39,850 --> 00:28:43,850 S1: Mhm. Mhm. Let that be a lesson to Anthony Albanese. Chip, 523 00:28:43,850 --> 00:28:45,810 S1: thank you so much for coming on, and we might 524 00:28:45,810 --> 00:28:48,730 S1: have you back at least in November, if not before, because, 525 00:28:48,770 --> 00:28:51,210 S1: as you say, it's going to be a fascinating election. 526 00:28:51,210 --> 00:28:54,209 S1: And it's such a test case for the electoral support 527 00:28:54,210 --> 00:28:56,970 S1: of One Nation in real time on the ground. So 528 00:28:57,010 --> 00:28:59,410 S1: we'll definitely be seeking your insights again. And we thank 529 00:28:59,410 --> 00:29:01,330 S1: you so much for coming on and making time. 530 00:29:01,330 --> 00:29:02,410 S3: Thanks, Jack. It's a pleasure. 531 00:29:08,610 --> 00:29:10,410 S1: You can read all of our political news on our 532 00:29:10,410 --> 00:29:16,170 S1: website dot com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by 533 00:29:16,210 --> 00:29:20,250 S1: Kai Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer 534 00:29:20,250 --> 00:29:23,130 S1: is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa 535 00:29:23,130 --> 00:29:28,770 S1: Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, follow Inside Politics 536 00:29:28,770 --> 00:29:31,090 S1: and leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. 537 00:29:32,290 --> 00:29:34,570 S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.