1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:05,760 S1: Hello and welcome to Inside Politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley. Now 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:07,600 S1: in Canberra this week, there's obviously a lot going on 3 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:10,440 S1: with the Liberal Party. At the time of recording, Angus 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,880 S1: Taylor had just resigned from the opposition frontbench, clearing the 5 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,840 S1: way to contest the Liberal leadership. We're going to keep 6 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,720 S1: you posted on that as the news transpires. But for 7 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:22,040 S1: our regular show this week, we're going to focus on 8 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,960 S1: bigger picture issues like the budget and government spending stuff 9 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,800 S1: with which actually affects people's lives. Dare we say it, 10 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:31,560 S1: interest rates have gone up, and we're hearing a lot 11 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,600 S1: about how too much government spending may or may not 12 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:38,320 S1: have contributed to inflation. So we're going to get to 13 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,000 S1: the bottom of that today, as well as throwing forward 14 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,760 S1: to the May budget and what fiscal reforms we might 15 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,680 S1: be able to expect. And no one has more expertise 16 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:50,760 S1: in this subject than podcast favourite Shane Reisz, our chief 17 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:55,680 S1: economics correspondent. He joins me from Canberra with Natassia Chrysanthos, 18 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:59,120 S1: who is also a favorite of the podcast. She is 19 00:00:59,220 --> 00:01:01,140 S1: our chief political reporter. Hi, guys. 20 00:01:01,340 --> 00:01:04,020 S2: I'm just wondering who's the special guest star today. I 21 00:01:04,180 --> 00:01:09,260 S2: think Taz is the special special guest star. Thanks. Swinging 22 00:01:09,260 --> 00:01:12,420 S2: into the economic and budget world, she is extra special. 23 00:01:13,020 --> 00:01:16,819 S1: Yeah, well, she's certainly she's certainly a polymath artist. She can. 24 00:01:16,860 --> 00:01:19,500 S1: She can talk about politics. She can talk about economics. 25 00:01:19,500 --> 00:01:24,300 S1: She's about to give us a treatise on capital gains tax. Ah, yeah. 26 00:01:24,700 --> 00:01:25,300 S3: That's me. 27 00:01:26,020 --> 00:01:29,140 S1: Shane and Taz. You guys wrote a piece this week 28 00:01:29,140 --> 00:01:32,179 S1: for our newspapers about the key areas where there is 29 00:01:32,180 --> 00:01:35,500 S1: major pressure on the federal budget pressure that is escalating. 30 00:01:35,740 --> 00:01:38,260 S1: What was the genesis for that piece, Shane? 31 00:01:39,180 --> 00:01:41,420 S2: This is going to the whole argument about what the 32 00:01:41,420 --> 00:01:45,300 S2: reserve Bank did, uh, a fortnight ago when they took 33 00:01:45,300 --> 00:01:50,500 S2: the cash rate from 3.6 to 3.85. And the coalition 34 00:01:50,500 --> 00:01:54,300 S2: and some economists said, right. The inflation that the reserve 35 00:01:54,300 --> 00:01:56,740 S2: Bank is trying to deal with is being driven by 36 00:01:56,980 --> 00:02:01,090 S2: government spending. It's one of the key factors. So rather 37 00:02:01,090 --> 00:02:05,090 S2: than just accept people shooting off at the hip task 38 00:02:05,090 --> 00:02:07,890 S2: and I decided, hey, let's go looking for some facts 39 00:02:07,890 --> 00:02:11,130 S2: and see what we can find. And ever since then, 40 00:02:11,130 --> 00:02:14,250 S2: this issue has continued. I've just come out of, say, 41 00:02:14,250 --> 00:02:17,570 S2: a Senate estimates hearing where Michele Bullock, you could see 42 00:02:17,570 --> 00:02:20,810 S2: a clearly frustrated. In fact, it's the most I've seen 43 00:02:20,810 --> 00:02:25,210 S2: Michele Bullock frustrated, getting asked questions after questions from coalition 44 00:02:25,210 --> 00:02:30,610 S2: senators about the contribution of government spending towards aggregate demand, 45 00:02:30,889 --> 00:02:34,090 S2: the pace of economic growth and the pace of inflation. 46 00:02:34,250 --> 00:02:37,010 S2: So that is that's where this all starts with. 47 00:02:37,050 --> 00:02:39,770 S1: Yeah. So it's part of a political attempt basically from 48 00:02:39,770 --> 00:02:45,010 S1: the coalition to blame labor for the interest rate rise essentially, 49 00:02:45,010 --> 00:02:48,810 S1: which is hurting mortgagees across the country, because it's this 50 00:02:48,810 --> 00:02:50,930 S1: whole issue of whether or not the government is basically 51 00:02:50,930 --> 00:02:53,570 S1: pumping way too much money into the economy and thereby 52 00:02:53,810 --> 00:02:57,030 S1: forcing prices up, or whether or not it's more about 53 00:02:57,030 --> 00:02:59,470 S1: private spending, which is what the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, sort 54 00:02:59,510 --> 00:03:01,710 S1: of tried to say after the interest rate rise. Right. 55 00:03:01,750 --> 00:03:02,710 S1: Is that right, Charles? 56 00:03:03,110 --> 00:03:06,390 S3: Yeah. And so you've got Chalmers kind of emphasizing the 57 00:03:06,389 --> 00:03:09,510 S3: role of private spending. So spending by consumers and businesses 58 00:03:09,510 --> 00:03:14,070 S3: and households. Ted O'Brien, the opposition shadow treasurer, emphasising the 59 00:03:14,070 --> 00:03:17,150 S3: role of government spending. And so I guess what we 60 00:03:17,190 --> 00:03:19,630 S3: decided to do was dive into the part that the 61 00:03:19,630 --> 00:03:22,950 S3: government does have control over, which is government spending, and 62 00:03:22,990 --> 00:03:26,550 S3: kind of quantify whether it was this kind of big 63 00:03:26,550 --> 00:03:30,869 S3: runaway budget bill, as the opposition has been characterising it, 64 00:03:30,870 --> 00:03:32,389 S3: and if so, why? 65 00:03:32,630 --> 00:03:35,350 S1: Yeah. So what did you find? You looked at the 66 00:03:35,390 --> 00:03:38,390 S1: sort of main areas of pressure on spending, the big, 67 00:03:38,390 --> 00:03:40,590 S1: big budget items and the ones that are being pushed 68 00:03:40,590 --> 00:03:42,950 S1: up where the prices do seem to be blowing out 69 00:03:42,950 --> 00:03:44,670 S1: a lot. So. So tell us what you found. 70 00:03:45,110 --> 00:03:49,190 S3: So on to kind of get a headline figure. What 71 00:03:49,190 --> 00:03:52,990 S3: we did was we looked at Josh Frydenberg's final budget 72 00:03:52,990 --> 00:03:56,490 S3: from 22 to 23, where he had projections for this 73 00:03:56,490 --> 00:03:59,690 S3: financial year. Then we looked at Jim Chalmers first budget 74 00:03:59,690 --> 00:04:04,210 S3: from later that year, October 22nd, and his projections for 75 00:04:04,210 --> 00:04:07,010 S3: this financial year. And then we looked at what spending 76 00:04:07,010 --> 00:04:10,170 S3: will actually come in at this financial year. And that's 77 00:04:10,170 --> 00:04:12,290 S3: how you can kind of detect, I suppose, that there 78 00:04:12,290 --> 00:04:15,290 S3: has been a blowout, some might call it, in what 79 00:04:15,290 --> 00:04:17,890 S3: the government anticipated it would be spending this year. 80 00:04:18,089 --> 00:04:20,089 S2: The other thing you immediately get into, you have to 81 00:04:20,130 --> 00:04:24,090 S2: start putting asterisks around some of these assumptions. The first 82 00:04:24,089 --> 00:04:28,450 S2: one being what Josh Frydenberg was forecasting. Was that accurate 83 00:04:28,450 --> 00:04:29,250 S2: to begin with? 84 00:04:29,610 --> 00:04:31,570 S3: What we found is that the total spend for this 85 00:04:31,570 --> 00:04:35,050 S3: year is still even above Chalmers own analysis. So for 86 00:04:35,050 --> 00:04:39,130 S3: for our listeners, the government, according to the December forecast 87 00:04:39,130 --> 00:04:45,210 S3: just from two months ago, will spend about $787 billion 88 00:04:45,330 --> 00:04:50,570 S3: this financial year. And so that figure is $100 billion 89 00:04:50,570 --> 00:04:53,670 S3: more thereabouts than then, Frydenberg had predicted from this year 90 00:04:53,950 --> 00:04:56,910 S3: its $58 billion more than what Chalmers thought he'd been 91 00:04:56,910 --> 00:04:59,390 S3: spending this year back in 22 when he gave his 92 00:04:59,390 --> 00:05:02,630 S3: first budget. And it's even $9 billion more than was 93 00:05:02,630 --> 00:05:06,670 S3: forecast just in May last, sorry, March last year because 94 00:05:06,670 --> 00:05:09,710 S3: we had an election March last year. But, um, as, 95 00:05:09,750 --> 00:05:12,430 S3: as we kind of then dive into that's because there 96 00:05:12,430 --> 00:05:17,109 S3: are some very acute pressures on the budget from a 97 00:05:17,110 --> 00:05:17,750 S3: range of things. 98 00:05:17,790 --> 00:05:21,190 S2: Jacqui, you and I have discussed the my anger over 99 00:05:21,350 --> 00:05:26,190 S2: how veterans and their compensation were treated by the previous government. 100 00:05:26,710 --> 00:05:30,390 S2: This government actually had to find an extra 13 billion including. 101 00:05:30,430 --> 00:05:35,270 S2: It's about 5 billion this year. Yeah. That is owed 102 00:05:35,270 --> 00:05:39,510 S2: to veterans. Yeah. That they'd been clogged up in the 103 00:05:40,070 --> 00:05:44,150 S2: Veteran Affairs department because not enough staff had been put 104 00:05:44,150 --> 00:05:47,710 S2: into that department. So it's a false saving. So yeah, 105 00:05:47,750 --> 00:05:50,740 S2: like 5 billion sounds a lot. And it is. The 106 00:05:50,740 --> 00:05:55,060 S2: Australian economy is about 2.7 $2.8 trillion. So you always. 107 00:05:55,100 --> 00:05:57,780 S2: I always try and put it into some perspective. All 108 00:05:57,779 --> 00:06:00,900 S2: the government spending versus what is actually going on in 109 00:06:00,900 --> 00:06:01,660 S2: the economy. 110 00:06:01,980 --> 00:06:04,660 S1: Yeah. Okay. So let's just to summarize what we've sort 111 00:06:04,700 --> 00:06:08,700 S1: of said so far. Basically there was accounting trickery in 112 00:06:08,700 --> 00:06:12,179 S1: Josh Frydenberg's last budget that basically made the forward estimates 113 00:06:12,180 --> 00:06:14,540 S1: seem much lower than actually they were always going to be. 114 00:06:14,900 --> 00:06:17,860 S1: But even accounting for that, the government has obviously taken 115 00:06:17,860 --> 00:06:20,979 S1: spending decisions and their big headline items that they promised 116 00:06:20,980 --> 00:06:25,060 S1: it to elections. But it's stuff like boosting aged care, 117 00:06:25,220 --> 00:06:29,580 S1: boosting defence spending and also, you know, measures like, I suppose, 118 00:06:29,980 --> 00:06:33,620 S1: slashing people's HECS debts. And also they had wages decisions 119 00:06:33,620 --> 00:06:36,300 S1: which you've talked about. So in the childcare and aged 120 00:06:36,300 --> 00:06:40,260 S1: care sectors which were historically very low paid industries and 121 00:06:40,260 --> 00:06:43,339 S1: feminised industries, the government's sort of taken a few decisions 122 00:06:43,339 --> 00:06:46,380 S1: which have led to pay rises in those areas. There's 123 00:06:46,380 --> 00:06:49,720 S1: also the NDIS. Shane, tell us about the NDIS and 124 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:51,920 S1: why that has blown out. So much so to give 125 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:56,400 S1: listeners an idea, it's costing 52 billion in this financial year, 126 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:59,640 S1: which is 43% more than was forecast four years ago. 127 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:00,880 S1: That's a huge blowout. 128 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:06,640 S2: It is, again, back to my asterisks. The estimations that 129 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,040 S2: were made were wrong. They were simply wrong and had 130 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:14,000 S2: underestimated what was going on. Because we know because under 131 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:15,720 S2: Bill shorten, there's been there had been a lot of 132 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:17,880 S2: action in terms of trying to wind it back. But 133 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:22,200 S2: it is the third largest discrete program within the budget 134 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:23,840 S2: after the GST and the age pension. 135 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:26,520 S3: And with the NDIS, I think and both governments have 136 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,680 S3: found this. It's a very loose scheme, like a it's 137 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:34,400 S3: demand driven. So there's no cap theoretically to how how 138 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:38,280 S3: big it can grow. And the, you know when you 139 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,800 S3: have all these structural issues with the NDIS but the 140 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,520 S3: NDIS kind of problem if you will at its core 141 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:48,420 S3: is that when the NDIS was designed and created. There 142 00:07:48,420 --> 00:07:51,620 S3: was supposed to be the NDIS which gave these individual 143 00:07:51,620 --> 00:07:55,660 S3: plans to people with, you know, severe and lifelong disability. 144 00:07:55,860 --> 00:07:58,940 S3: And there was still supposed to be other disability services 145 00:07:58,940 --> 00:08:01,860 S3: run through health education elsewhere in the system. 146 00:08:01,900 --> 00:08:03,060 S2: Largely at the state level, to. 147 00:08:03,140 --> 00:08:06,420 S3: Largely at the state level. That never happened. Everyone kind 148 00:08:06,460 --> 00:08:09,420 S3: of flocked to the NDIS. The NDIS is, I think 149 00:08:09,420 --> 00:08:11,830 S3: it was only ever anticipated to cater for half a 150 00:08:11,830 --> 00:08:15,500 S3: million people. It's well and truly past that. The pricing 151 00:08:15,500 --> 00:08:20,420 S3: system is out of sync with the rest of kind 152 00:08:20,420 --> 00:08:24,179 S3: of health aged care, disability services. So it's very expensive. 153 00:08:24,620 --> 00:08:26,860 S3: There wasn't a lot of kind of integrity in the system. 154 00:08:26,900 --> 00:08:29,740 S3: You know, in many situations people weren't even expected to 155 00:08:29,780 --> 00:08:32,940 S3: provide receipts. And so you had it grow at 20% 156 00:08:32,980 --> 00:08:35,459 S3: a year for the last few years. And there have 157 00:08:35,460 --> 00:08:37,540 S3: been a bunch of changes to try and bring that down. 158 00:08:37,580 --> 00:08:40,260 S3: It's it's just under 10% now. They're trying to get 159 00:08:40,260 --> 00:08:41,820 S3: it to 8%, and then they'll try and get it 160 00:08:41,820 --> 00:08:46,040 S3: to 5%. But that is obviously growing at 20% every 161 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:47,760 S3: year for a few years. It makes it a huge 162 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:49,679 S3: runaway cost for the budget. 163 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:52,680 S1: Yeah. Which which a coalition, a future coalition government would, 164 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,280 S1: would inherit that same problem. As you say, the the 165 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,560 S1: labor government has tried to to rein it in a 166 00:08:57,559 --> 00:08:59,840 S1: little bit and particularly to get people with, I think 167 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:04,359 S1: with lower level disabilities, you know, people like kids with ADHD, 168 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,720 S1: for example, onto different schemes, state based schemes, rather than 169 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,920 S1: be on the NDIS. There are also childcare costs. So 170 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,199 S1: they rate a special mention because they're up a lot. 171 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,200 S1: They're up 53% from four years ago, so they're costing 172 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,760 S1: 16.2 billion, which is quite a big figure even in 173 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:25,000 S1: the context of, you know, a $786 billion sort of 174 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,120 S1: overall budget. Shane, why have they gone up so much? 175 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:34,280 S2: Well, this is government policy. Like we touch upon this. 176 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:38,319 S2: The the increase in spending is partly driven by the 177 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:42,920 S2: decisions of this government. So the childcare subsidy and the 178 00:09:43,110 --> 00:09:48,589 S2: increase in wages for childcare workers ultimately hits the budget. 179 00:09:48,590 --> 00:09:51,830 S2: Bottom line. And you, me and Tars and everybody else 180 00:09:51,870 --> 00:09:56,630 S2: pay for it through taxes so that that's one of them. Ultimately, 181 00:09:56,670 --> 00:10:00,349 S2: the if you look at the broad areas of expenditure, 182 00:10:00,350 --> 00:10:05,950 S2: health is enormous. So the Medicare urgent care clinics, where 183 00:10:05,950 --> 00:10:08,470 S2: I took my wife at the weekend after tripping over 184 00:10:09,070 --> 00:10:12,390 S2: at a park run and tried to break a wrist. Um, 185 00:10:12,550 --> 00:10:14,870 S2: that is government policy. 186 00:10:15,110 --> 00:10:17,550 S1: And that's to take that's to take the pressure off, um, 187 00:10:17,590 --> 00:10:21,230 S1: casualty departments. Basically, if you have something like a broken wrist, 188 00:10:21,429 --> 00:10:24,470 S1: which is needs acute care but is not life threatening, 189 00:10:24,470 --> 00:10:26,110 S1: then you can go to an urgent care clinic. 190 00:10:26,150 --> 00:10:29,110 S2: That's right. So rather than clog up Canberra based hospital 191 00:10:29,150 --> 00:10:31,310 S2: or Canberra, the Central hospital, we went to one of 192 00:10:31,309 --> 00:10:33,630 S2: these and we're in and out very quickly. But it 193 00:10:33,710 --> 00:10:34,829 S2: costs taxpayers. 194 00:10:34,870 --> 00:10:37,670 S3: And the other big one in health is the centrepiece 195 00:10:37,670 --> 00:10:41,090 S3: of the Albanese government's re-election campaign, which was an $8.5 196 00:10:41,170 --> 00:10:44,090 S3: billion investment in Medicare rebates. 197 00:10:44,650 --> 00:10:45,770 S1: Which is controversial. 198 00:10:45,770 --> 00:10:51,610 S3: As pharmaceutical co-payment. So medicine co-payment being brought down to $25. 199 00:10:52,010 --> 00:10:55,650 S3: So they have that labor has explicitly campaigned on those 200 00:10:55,650 --> 00:10:58,570 S3: huge increases in spending in health, which is one part. 201 00:10:58,570 --> 00:11:01,130 S3: And then the other part of health is, you know, 202 00:11:01,170 --> 00:11:04,650 S3: for example, in the case of public hospitals, the government 203 00:11:04,650 --> 00:11:07,570 S3: only at the end of last month finalised a deal 204 00:11:07,570 --> 00:11:10,290 S3: with the states after after it dragged on for months 205 00:11:10,290 --> 00:11:13,850 S3: and months and months because state hospitals which gets to 206 00:11:13,850 --> 00:11:16,050 S3: the urgent care clinic issue as well. But state hospitals 207 00:11:16,050 --> 00:11:18,810 S3: are being overwhelmed. Um, and the states are then asking 208 00:11:18,809 --> 00:11:20,450 S3: the federal government to cough up more money because the 209 00:11:20,450 --> 00:11:22,570 S3: states don't have enough money to meet that extra demand. 210 00:11:22,570 --> 00:11:25,170 S3: And so you had at the end of last month, 211 00:11:25,210 --> 00:11:29,090 S3: the federal government agreed to pay $25 billion extra than 212 00:11:29,090 --> 00:11:31,610 S3: what it was planning to to the states over five years. 213 00:11:31,610 --> 00:11:34,890 S3: So that extra health funding is spending is coming from 214 00:11:34,929 --> 00:11:38,209 S3: from demand, from population changes like we're getting older, we're 215 00:11:38,210 --> 00:11:42,150 S3: needing more care for longer and politics. 216 00:11:42,150 --> 00:11:45,310 S2: Speak for yourself. Jackie and I are. Jackie and I 217 00:11:45,309 --> 00:11:46,829 S2: aren't getting older. We know that. 218 00:11:47,110 --> 00:11:50,189 S1: We're certainly getting fitter because, you know, we're, um, we're 219 00:11:50,190 --> 00:11:53,070 S1: we're running. We're running a lot. Right, Shane, do you think, 220 00:11:53,110 --> 00:11:55,230 S1: I mean, on Medicare? Because obviously, one of the huge 221 00:11:55,230 --> 00:11:57,950 S1: issues that Albanese campaigned on at the last election was 222 00:11:57,950 --> 00:12:01,150 S1: to bring to to bring up bulk billing rates, because 223 00:12:01,150 --> 00:12:03,470 S1: it hasn't escaped people's notice that even though Medicare is 224 00:12:03,470 --> 00:12:05,110 S1: supposed to be free and we're supposed to get free 225 00:12:05,110 --> 00:12:08,950 S1: primary health care, at least most GPS, it seems these 226 00:12:08,950 --> 00:12:11,910 S1: days charge a gap fee. Certainly mine does, and it's 227 00:12:11,910 --> 00:12:14,790 S1: quite a hefty gap gap fee. And I know that 228 00:12:14,790 --> 00:12:16,750 S1: the government put a lot of money into that. And 229 00:12:16,750 --> 00:12:19,470 S1: they have brought up bulk billing rates. But it just 230 00:12:19,470 --> 00:12:22,470 S1: seems to me that at some point, Australians are probably 231 00:12:22,470 --> 00:12:23,990 S1: going to have to accept the fact that they are 232 00:12:23,990 --> 00:12:26,830 S1: going to have to, on an ongoing basis, pay gap 233 00:12:26,830 --> 00:12:29,790 S1: fees or pay a co-payment towards Medicare, which is what 234 00:12:29,830 --> 00:12:31,910 S1: Tony Abbott said many years ago and was sort of 235 00:12:31,950 --> 00:12:33,790 S1: like roundly criticised for. 236 00:12:34,309 --> 00:12:38,370 S3: Um, yeah. I think the the interesting issue with this 237 00:12:38,370 --> 00:12:40,850 S3: one as well as the equity piece, right? Like there 238 00:12:40,890 --> 00:12:42,570 S3: are people who'll be able to fork out an extra 239 00:12:42,570 --> 00:12:46,650 S3: $50 to go to the GP. You know, people earning 240 00:12:46,690 --> 00:12:52,210 S3: good wages and whatnot. The problem is people who can't 241 00:12:52,210 --> 00:12:55,970 S3: afford that, who delay healthcare and that becomes a, you know, extra, 242 00:12:55,970 --> 00:12:59,290 S3: more expensive burden on the health system in crude terms 243 00:12:59,290 --> 00:13:02,410 S3: down the track. And I think that is where the 244 00:13:02,410 --> 00:13:04,810 S3: government has done a good job in how it's tailored, 245 00:13:04,809 --> 00:13:08,329 S3: this investment in that it's not just pumping. It's not 246 00:13:08,330 --> 00:13:11,809 S3: like childcare, where it's just kind of pumping money into 247 00:13:11,850 --> 00:13:15,810 S3: a subsidy with no guarantee that the provider is going 248 00:13:15,850 --> 00:13:17,490 S3: to keep prices low. 249 00:13:17,530 --> 00:13:18,170 S1: No, in fact. 250 00:13:18,450 --> 00:13:21,610 S3: That's been the problem, I think, with childcare. Whereas with 251 00:13:21,730 --> 00:13:26,329 S3: these health rebates, what the government did was tie that 252 00:13:26,330 --> 00:13:29,850 S3: additional funding to a guarantee that there would be no 253 00:13:29,850 --> 00:13:33,130 S3: cost pass on to the consumer. So at least this 254 00:13:33,130 --> 00:13:35,730 S3: one is kind of ensuring that there's a bang for 255 00:13:35,730 --> 00:13:38,440 S3: buck in that this government subsidy is ensuring that a 256 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,920 S3: vulnerable person, for example, doesn't pay out of pocket and 257 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:43,080 S3: can see a GP. 258 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,760 S1: Yeah, and it just doesn't push up prices overall. Which 259 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:47,760 S1: brings us back to our original question, which is is 260 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,400 S1: public spending from the government pushing up inflation? Did you 261 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,120 S1: guys come down on one side or the other? 262 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:57,280 S2: No. And that's and that's that is typical economist. 263 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,280 S1: You know I would expect expect that from you Shane. 264 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:02,119 S1: Just weighing up each side. 265 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:02,760 S2: Yeah. 266 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:06,440 S1: Refusing to take a firm position. You know it's just 267 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,280 S1: the dismal science incarnate. 268 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,719 S2: It is a very dismal science. But in this case 269 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,600 S2: it is very difficult. So let's walk through it. You 270 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,840 S2: get to I'm sitting in the reserve Bank board room 271 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:22,760 S2: on Tuesday fortnight ago and I'm going write. My forecast 272 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,360 S2: is saying inflation's going up. I've got to lift interest rates. 273 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:30,200 S2: Do I. Why is that. And the answer always comes back. 274 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:35,100 S2: It's aggregate demand. And aggregate demand is what the public 275 00:14:35,100 --> 00:14:37,860 S2: is spending and what the private sector is spending. The 276 00:14:37,860 --> 00:14:41,220 S2: private sector accounts for about three quarters of all spending. 277 00:14:41,220 --> 00:14:45,260 S2: So let's put that into some context. And Michelle Bullock 278 00:14:45,300 --> 00:14:48,740 S2: actually made the point saying we've looked at it fiscal 279 00:14:48,780 --> 00:14:52,180 S2: as in government spending is about what we thought it 280 00:14:52,180 --> 00:14:53,020 S2: was going to be. 281 00:14:53,060 --> 00:14:53,619 S1: Right. 282 00:14:53,660 --> 00:14:57,260 S2: So their forecasts over the last six months, we'll think 283 00:14:57,260 --> 00:15:00,580 S2: that's what's going on with the public sector. Private sector 284 00:15:00,580 --> 00:15:03,420 S2: is what surprised us. It is households. They've got a 285 00:15:03,420 --> 00:15:05,980 S2: bit more income and they are spending it. And we 286 00:15:06,020 --> 00:15:08,780 S2: saw that in some of the retail data that's come out, 287 00:15:08,980 --> 00:15:11,940 S2: the data centers that are being built, which are long term, 288 00:15:11,940 --> 00:15:13,660 S2: really important as a productivity. 289 00:15:13,700 --> 00:15:15,660 S1: Kind of like infrastructure spending really. 290 00:15:15,900 --> 00:15:18,660 S2: They are. And the private sector, that's all private sector, 291 00:15:18,660 --> 00:15:22,700 S2: for instance. And you go, okay, that's been the big surprise. 292 00:15:22,700 --> 00:15:26,660 S2: And what's the overseas what's going on overseas? Donald Trump 293 00:15:26,660 --> 00:15:29,500 S2: has not destroyed the global economy. China and the US 294 00:15:29,540 --> 00:15:32,260 S2: are not in a global trade war. That means the 295 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:36,200 S2: global outlook is pretty good. That's probably influenced our economy 296 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,680 S2: a bit more as well. So you go right. So 297 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:43,720 S2: ultimately what's changed? It's the private sector. And so right. 298 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,040 S2: Interest rates are going to have to go up. However, 299 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,560 S2: the political argument is, well, if the government had known 300 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,359 S2: that this was coming, well, you should be cutting back 301 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,920 S2: on their spending. So it would give the private sector 302 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:59,880 S2: more space to grow without putting that pressure on interest rates. 303 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,760 S2: Of course, that is, we have to go back in 304 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,760 S2: time to March, April, May and go right the the 305 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,320 S2: second half of 2025, the world's not going to come 306 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,880 S2: to an end. Uh, all these data centers that we 307 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:17,120 S2: didn't know existed are we should have guessed that the 308 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,680 S2: private sector is going to say we're going to spend 309 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:23,200 S2: an extra $25 billion in six months on data centers. 310 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,600 S2: We should have known that. So this is why I go. 311 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,920 S2: You can't tell because there are so many different things 312 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,220 S2: going on. That's why I love economics. Yeah, I can 313 00:16:32,260 --> 00:16:34,380 S2: I can skip out on a hard core answer just 314 00:16:34,380 --> 00:16:34,660 S2: for you. 315 00:16:35,220 --> 00:16:37,500 S1: Um, no. And I don't mean to criticize you because 316 00:16:37,540 --> 00:16:41,900 S1: we value nuance and uncertainty in this podcast. We sit 317 00:16:41,940 --> 00:16:44,300 S1: we sit in the space for it. We do. But 318 00:16:44,340 --> 00:16:46,460 S1: I mean, it's just interesting because that's the sort of 319 00:16:46,500 --> 00:16:49,340 S1: that's the economics. And that sounds extremely sensible to me 320 00:16:49,340 --> 00:16:52,300 S1: and extremely rational. And then there's the politics of it, 321 00:16:52,300 --> 00:16:55,020 S1: which is this is a weak spot for the government. 322 00:16:55,020 --> 00:16:57,180 S1: They do have a lot of these big spending items. 323 00:16:57,220 --> 00:17:00,980 S1: Labor is always vulnerable to cries of, you know, being 324 00:17:00,980 --> 00:17:04,060 S1: a big spending, big taxing government, which is exactly what 325 00:17:04,060 --> 00:17:06,939 S1: the opposition is saying now, if and when it sort 326 00:17:06,940 --> 00:17:09,980 S1: of has its act together on its own terms. I'm 327 00:17:09,980 --> 00:17:12,500 S1: just wondering what the political vulnerability is here for the 328 00:17:12,500 --> 00:17:15,939 S1: government to us, particularly as we go forward towards the budget. Like, 329 00:17:16,180 --> 00:17:19,139 S1: do they need to make some big spending, cut decisions 330 00:17:19,140 --> 00:17:22,540 S1: to give themselves a little bit of credibility as fiscal managers? 331 00:17:23,260 --> 00:17:27,180 S3: I think, yeah, I think the in that context, a 332 00:17:27,220 --> 00:17:30,210 S3: big criticism criticism, sorry, that is thrown at the government 333 00:17:30,210 --> 00:17:33,010 S3: is a lack of restraint. Yeah, and I think that 334 00:17:33,010 --> 00:17:35,330 S3: is interesting. And I think, you know, you do look 335 00:17:35,330 --> 00:17:37,770 S3: at these items. It's like, yeah, okay, where where are 336 00:17:37,770 --> 00:17:40,250 S3: we kind of trimming back or where are we making 337 00:17:40,250 --> 00:17:43,969 S3: a hard sell to voters and Australians that, you know, 338 00:17:44,130 --> 00:17:45,929 S3: this is the economy we find ourselves in. And so 339 00:17:45,930 --> 00:17:47,770 S3: we do need to cut in like trim a bit 340 00:17:47,770 --> 00:17:49,609 S3: here and trim a bit here instead. You know, we 341 00:17:49,609 --> 00:17:52,330 S3: had a we had a spendathon election, as many people 342 00:17:52,330 --> 00:17:54,650 S3: called it, and that was coming from both sides as well. 343 00:17:54,690 --> 00:17:56,770 S3: You know, you had the coalition matching a lot of 344 00:17:57,330 --> 00:18:01,330 S3: Labor's big spending promises, particularly on health. But if this 345 00:18:01,330 --> 00:18:03,290 S3: pressure continues to be in the economy and we see 346 00:18:03,730 --> 00:18:07,010 S3: further interest rate rises, I think it will be politically 347 00:18:07,010 --> 00:18:11,409 S3: incumbent on the treasurer to show what he's doing to 348 00:18:11,490 --> 00:18:14,490 S3: bring that down. That doesn't just look like we're pumping 349 00:18:14,490 --> 00:18:16,370 S3: money into this, pumping money into that. And I think 350 00:18:16,369 --> 00:18:20,890 S3: that's where we've got this bubbling conversation about tax reform. Yeah, 351 00:18:20,930 --> 00:18:23,450 S3: that that the government is kind of flying the kite 352 00:18:23,450 --> 00:18:26,090 S3: for including as Shane's going to talk about, I believe 353 00:18:26,450 --> 00:18:29,310 S3: are Uh, capital gains tax, you know. 354 00:18:29,350 --> 00:18:31,830 S2: And yeah, I was gonna say. But ultimately, governments are 355 00:18:31,830 --> 00:18:35,390 S2: always blamed for inflation. Yes and no. And that and 356 00:18:35,390 --> 00:18:38,189 S2: that feeds into interest rates. That is why John Howard 357 00:18:38,190 --> 00:18:40,630 S2: went to an election saying interest rates will always be 358 00:18:40,630 --> 00:18:44,630 S2: lower under a coalition government. Famously, of course, the cash 359 00:18:44,630 --> 00:18:48,149 S2: rate at that time is is three quarters of a 360 00:18:48,150 --> 00:18:52,310 S2: percentage point higher than it is today. So our feeling 361 00:18:52,350 --> 00:18:54,709 S2: and you can see it in the Liberal Party, uh, 362 00:18:55,109 --> 00:18:58,230 S2: criticism at the moment they keep saying, oh, there's been 363 00:18:58,270 --> 00:19:01,910 S2: 13 interest rate rises under this government, which is a 364 00:19:01,910 --> 00:19:06,110 S2: great killer line. Yeah. Except of course, that's from when 365 00:19:06,109 --> 00:19:11,030 S2: the cash rate was 0.35. Yeah. And that historically and 366 00:19:11,070 --> 00:19:14,030 S2: had been point one, you go the world where interest 367 00:19:14,030 --> 00:19:16,750 S2: rates are at point one is a terrible world. 368 00:19:16,790 --> 00:19:17,230 S1: Yeah. 369 00:19:17,270 --> 00:19:20,990 S2: The world is utterly in absolute, uh, crapola. 370 00:19:21,030 --> 00:19:22,910 S1: Yeah. That's where everyone's hanging on by their fingernails. 371 00:19:22,910 --> 00:19:25,070 S3: At the same time, when things are good and when 372 00:19:25,170 --> 00:19:27,650 S3: inflation is coming down, the government is taking credit because 373 00:19:27,650 --> 00:19:29,570 S3: inflation is coming down. You know, like that was their 374 00:19:29,570 --> 00:19:32,250 S3: key line during the election when we came into government. 375 00:19:32,290 --> 00:19:34,010 S3: Inflation had a six in front of it. Now it 376 00:19:34,010 --> 00:19:36,330 S3: has a two in front of it you know. So so. 377 00:19:36,770 --> 00:19:37,330 S1: Yeah they're happy. 378 00:19:37,330 --> 00:19:39,370 S3: That they said that was a win. So it kind 379 00:19:39,410 --> 00:19:41,250 S3: of does end up you taking the flip side. 380 00:19:41,330 --> 00:19:44,889 S1: Absolutely. Absolutely. I want to talk quickly about the possible 381 00:19:44,890 --> 00:19:47,650 S1: changes to capital gains tax. We're hearing now. I think 382 00:19:47,650 --> 00:19:50,090 S1: I saw a report this morning that they might make 383 00:19:50,090 --> 00:19:53,730 S1: capital gains tax changes just on property, because that's sort of, 384 00:19:54,010 --> 00:19:56,810 S1: I suppose, where the most egregious examples of people taking 385 00:19:56,810 --> 00:19:59,570 S1: advantage of it are. And also property is the, the 386 00:19:59,570 --> 00:20:03,210 S1: headline issue, property affordability, you know, equity issue if you like, 387 00:20:03,210 --> 00:20:05,889 S1: in the economy today. Shane, do you have any tea 388 00:20:05,930 --> 00:20:07,689 S1: on what they might do if they're going to do 389 00:20:07,690 --> 00:20:08,530 S1: anything at all? 390 00:20:09,130 --> 00:20:11,210 S2: There are 5 or 6 different options that are being 391 00:20:11,210 --> 00:20:12,810 S2: examined here. 392 00:20:12,810 --> 00:20:15,649 S1: Because again, with your careful analysis. No, no. 393 00:20:15,650 --> 00:20:16,370 S2: No, because there. 394 00:20:16,369 --> 00:20:16,770 S1: Are. 395 00:20:17,010 --> 00:20:19,609 S2: There are very different things that you can do around CGT. 396 00:20:19,930 --> 00:20:24,070 S2: Leaving it just on housing then. But again you can 397 00:20:24,109 --> 00:20:26,750 S2: actually do it for how long you can hold a 398 00:20:26,910 --> 00:20:30,310 S2: property asset. So at the moment, at the moment it's 50, 399 00:20:30,510 --> 00:20:33,790 S2: you get the concession 50% off. If you've held the 400 00:20:33,790 --> 00:20:38,350 S2: house an asset for 12 months, you can change that. 401 00:20:38,590 --> 00:20:40,150 S2: It is not very long and that's why you get 402 00:20:40,150 --> 00:20:43,990 S2: people who flip houses. Like there we had there's been 403 00:20:43,990 --> 00:20:47,630 S2: TV series all around flipping houses in short periods of time, 404 00:20:47,670 --> 00:20:49,750 S2: and that's what they're picking. I know you do. That's 405 00:20:49,750 --> 00:20:52,030 S2: why I wanted to reference it for you. But that 406 00:20:52,070 --> 00:20:55,230 S2: so you can do right. You can exclude or restrict it, 407 00:20:55,270 --> 00:20:57,750 S2: change it to housing. You can do the timing, you 408 00:20:57,750 --> 00:21:01,710 S2: can do the rate. So at the moment it's a 50% concession. 409 00:21:01,710 --> 00:21:07,189 S2: There are different options for reducing that concession, maybe to 25%, 410 00:21:07,190 --> 00:21:10,710 S2: maybe to 33%. Or you change the way in which 411 00:21:10,710 --> 00:21:14,670 S2: you calculate the concession. You could write a tiny story 412 00:21:14,670 --> 00:21:17,430 S2: about all the different options, but there are a large 413 00:21:17,430 --> 00:21:19,750 S2: number of options that are going on. And to go 414 00:21:19,750 --> 00:21:24,820 S2: to the politics. Susan Lee immediately says, oh, Jim Chalmers 415 00:21:24,820 --> 00:21:29,660 S2: has got a secret tax for housing and you can 416 00:21:29,660 --> 00:21:33,580 S2: see where the opposition wants to go in terms of right, 417 00:21:33,619 --> 00:21:35,580 S2: this is this would be a tax on housing. It 418 00:21:35,580 --> 00:21:38,740 S2: would be a tax on investors in the housing sector 419 00:21:38,740 --> 00:21:43,380 S2: who clearly influenced the the lift in housing prices that 420 00:21:43,740 --> 00:21:47,660 S2: took off this century because of the concessions. Introduction. 421 00:21:47,700 --> 00:21:49,980 S1: Yes. But I mean, I would make the point that firstly, 422 00:21:50,020 --> 00:21:52,340 S1: a lot of economists I've seen modelling on this that 423 00:21:52,340 --> 00:21:54,500 S1: they say it will knock, you know, at best if 424 00:21:54,500 --> 00:21:58,380 S1: they if these arrangements are changed, it will knock, you know, 425 00:21:58,420 --> 00:22:01,460 S1: a few percentage points off housing prices, which like it 426 00:22:01,460 --> 00:22:04,660 S1: won't make a huge material difference to housing prices. So 427 00:22:04,700 --> 00:22:07,100 S1: it's a little bit of a token gesture in that sense. 428 00:22:07,340 --> 00:22:09,580 S1: And the other thing is, as you said, there's a 429 00:22:09,580 --> 00:22:12,700 S1: huge political risk for the government, right. Because they're just 430 00:22:12,700 --> 00:22:15,820 S1: going to be painted as big taxes that they don't 431 00:22:15,820 --> 00:22:19,100 S1: have any ideas for fiscal reform. They don't have any 432 00:22:19,100 --> 00:22:22,080 S1: ideas for raising revenue except to hike up taxes. That 433 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,000 S1: is such an easy claim to make, even if it's 434 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,520 S1: like a really valid reform. Is there any way that 435 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,679 S1: the government could counter that or to, you know, to 436 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:30,760 S1: argue against that? 437 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,520 S2: This will be part of a broader tax package. So 438 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:34,240 S2: this is how. 439 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,080 S3: You'll be offset elsewhere or you'll get more elsewhere. 440 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:37,720 S1: Right. 441 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,040 S2: This is we go back to when the capital gains 442 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,800 S2: tax was introduced by Paul Keating. He introduced a CGT. 443 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,520 S2: He introduced the fringe benefits tax. But he at the 444 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,399 S2: same time cut the company tax rate and at the 445 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,520 S2: same time cut the top marginal rate, which at the 446 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:58,119 S2: time was 60%. It was reduced to 49. This is 447 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,000 S2: this is how you sell it. And this is the 448 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,200 S2: political danger for the opposition at the moment. Right. If 449 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,760 S2: and we saw this last year, which is I keep 450 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,520 S2: saying we got a tax cut in the March budget, 451 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,919 S2: which no one had expected. Mhm. 452 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,040 S3: So question for you, Shane. If they do go ahead 453 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:16,080 S3: with some kind of extra personal income tax at this 454 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,420 S3: budget because you know they all the last few budgets. 455 00:23:19,420 --> 00:23:22,260 S3: They've been very careful to say this measure is a 456 00:23:22,260 --> 00:23:25,220 S3: cost of living relief, but it's not inflationary. It's not inflationary. 457 00:23:25,220 --> 00:23:27,859 S3: Given that inflation kind of threatens to be spiking a 458 00:23:27,859 --> 00:23:30,180 S3: little bit. Is there a risk to giving people more money? 459 00:23:30,420 --> 00:23:31,660 S2: There's always a risk giving. 460 00:23:31,900 --> 00:23:33,419 S3: And how does the government manage that? 461 00:23:33,820 --> 00:23:36,100 S2: The reserve Bank got asked about this. I've talked to 462 00:23:36,100 --> 00:23:39,220 S2: them about it. Like the tax cut that's coming is, 463 00:23:39,380 --> 00:23:45,179 S2: to paraphrase Amanda Vanstone, it's not worth a milkshake in 464 00:23:45,220 --> 00:23:49,660 S2: a sandwich. It is that small. It's about $5 a week, right? 465 00:23:49,940 --> 00:23:51,940 S1: You've barely even buys you a coffee in Sydney. 466 00:23:52,220 --> 00:23:55,980 S2: That's right. But if you say you doubled that to $10, 467 00:23:56,460 --> 00:23:58,900 S2: you you'd argue, right? It is. Cost of living relief. 468 00:23:59,100 --> 00:24:02,540 S2: The reserve Bank will go. Okay, that's that's not much. 469 00:24:02,540 --> 00:24:05,740 S2: And you would argue as well on the, the economics 470 00:24:05,740 --> 00:24:09,100 S2: that this is actually good for the labour market, but 471 00:24:09,140 --> 00:24:10,820 S2: you'd be bringing in more people. 472 00:24:10,859 --> 00:24:12,899 S3: But do you think something like that will be enough 473 00:24:12,940 --> 00:24:17,960 S3: then to offset politically, you know, any any scare, campaign 474 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:19,240 S3: or attack that comes with. 475 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,440 S2: I go to the stage three tax cuts where they 476 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:27,040 S2: reformed them and they ended up with the top. About 10% 477 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,159 S2: of the population ended up paying more tax, and 90% 478 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,119 S2: of the population got bigger tax cuts. I would I 479 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,399 S2: would never get in the way of you make this. 480 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,360 S2: Capital gains is paid by 1 million people. There's another 481 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,640 S2: 16 million people who would get a larger tax cut. 482 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,840 S1: Who could get a milkshake, a milkshake and a hamburger 483 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,040 S1: out of it. So basically, the government would put through 484 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,840 S1: a suite of reforms and they would chuck them all 485 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,640 S1: into the same legislative package. So if the coalition was 486 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,080 S1: going to vote against the CGT changes, they would also 487 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,679 S1: have to vote against a modest but appreciable tax return 488 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,640 S1: or tax cut for ordinary Australians. Is that the idea? 489 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,920 S3: It's all very political, isn't it? 490 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,080 S1: Yeah, yeah. Um, listen, it's fascinating stuff. I actually find 491 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,879 S1: this stuff really, really interesting because it goes to basically, 492 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,800 S1: you know, the government's spending priorities, which is a lot 493 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,350 S1: about the values that they hold and they think Australians hold. 494 00:25:17,350 --> 00:25:19,470 S1: And we fight that out every year when we talk 495 00:25:19,470 --> 00:25:22,430 S1: about the budget, which I'm really looking forward to. Guys, 496 00:25:22,430 --> 00:25:24,430 S1: thanks so much for coming on. Thanks for doing this 497 00:25:24,470 --> 00:25:27,070 S1: incredible research that you did about all of the spending. 498 00:25:27,070 --> 00:25:28,830 S1: It is really dry stuff, but you managed to make 499 00:25:28,830 --> 00:25:30,790 S1: it really interesting and accessible. So thanks. 500 00:25:31,430 --> 00:25:32,109 S3: Thanks, Jack. 501 00:25:32,109 --> 00:25:33,390 S2: We'll try not to do it again. 502 00:25:35,310 --> 00:25:36,710 S1: We want you to do it again. 503 00:25:37,550 --> 00:25:38,310 S2: Sure. 504 00:25:42,950 --> 00:25:45,230 S1: You can read all of our political news on our website, 505 00:25:45,270 --> 00:25:51,590 S1: theage.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong 506 00:25:51,630 --> 00:25:55,670 S1: with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, 507 00:25:55,670 --> 00:25:59,430 S1: and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. 508 00:26:00,030 --> 00:26:02,990 S1: Before you go, follow Inside Politics and leave a review 509 00:26:02,990 --> 00:26:06,430 S1: for us on Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley. Thank 510 00:26:06,470 --> 00:26:07,190 S1: you for listening.