1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,240 S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:09,840 S1: This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris. It's Monday, 3 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:15,560 S1: January 12th. On the first day of the new year. 4 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:19,000 S1: Donald Trump wrote on his social platform, Truth Social what 5 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:23,760 S1: he wanted for 2026. And I quote. Peace. Peace on Earth. 6 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:28,640 S1: Two days later, Trump invaded Venezuela. And now the American 7 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:34,320 S1: president is threatening to invade at least four other countries. Today, 8 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,920 S1: Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre 9 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:42,760 S1: and a former congressional staffer, on whether Trump's imperialist aggression 10 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,000 S1: and a recent mutiny of more than a dozen top 11 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:55,880 S1: ranking MAGA members might break his hold on power. Welcome back, Bruce, 12 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:56,960 S1: to the podcast. 13 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,210 S2: Wonderful to be here, Sam. Great to start the year 14 00:00:59,210 --> 00:00:59,890 S2: off with you. 15 00:00:59,930 --> 00:01:02,650 S1: Okay, well, let's kick off by talking about the Trump 16 00:01:02,650 --> 00:01:07,770 S1: administration's invasion of Venezuela and Donald Trump's subsequent claim that 17 00:01:07,770 --> 00:01:11,010 S1: the US would run the country, because we know this 18 00:01:11,010 --> 00:01:14,530 S1: goes against what he campaigned on for ten years, on 19 00:01:14,530 --> 00:01:17,010 S1: and off, which was that he would lead America out 20 00:01:17,010 --> 00:01:20,610 S1: of foreign wars. He wouldn't be seeking regime changes in 21 00:01:20,610 --> 00:01:23,810 S1: other countries. So what does his coalition make of this? 22 00:01:24,290 --> 00:01:26,210 S2: Well, it's kind of what he makes of this. And 23 00:01:26,209 --> 00:01:29,930 S2: what he said is I am MAGA. I decide what 24 00:01:29,930 --> 00:01:33,530 S2: MAGA believes. I am executing the agenda and they'll be 25 00:01:33,530 --> 00:01:37,250 S2: with me. Now, I think at a tactical level, if 26 00:01:37,250 --> 00:01:42,330 S2: the military attack on Venezuela had failed, if it had 27 00:01:42,330 --> 00:01:46,490 S2: not kidnapped the president, if, um, if if American casualties 28 00:01:46,490 --> 00:01:49,610 S2: had been extensive, if helicopters had crashed, I think that 29 00:01:49,610 --> 00:01:52,330 S2: would change the lens through which everyone is looking at this. 30 00:01:52,370 --> 00:01:56,890 S2: This was a terrifically executed operation. And just as the 31 00:01:56,980 --> 00:02:01,620 S2: bombing of Iran last July was a terrifically executed operation. 32 00:02:01,620 --> 00:02:03,180 S2: And I think one thing we can take away from 33 00:02:03,180 --> 00:02:05,140 S2: this is if he wants to use the military, the 34 00:02:05,140 --> 00:02:07,180 S2: military is is prepared to do the job, and they 35 00:02:07,180 --> 00:02:09,540 S2: do it with expertise, whether you like it or don't 36 00:02:09,540 --> 00:02:12,820 S2: like what the military is undertaking. So there's been no 37 00:02:12,820 --> 00:02:17,340 S2: blowback from 95% of Republicans in the House and Senate 38 00:02:17,340 --> 00:02:21,019 S2: on what has been done. Um, and those who have. Well, 39 00:02:21,020 --> 00:02:25,580 S2: one of them, Marjorie Taylor Greene, she's when she stood 40 00:02:25,580 --> 00:02:28,780 S2: up and said, um, I'm against what you're doing and 41 00:02:28,780 --> 00:02:31,380 S2: you're going against some core values. And he called her 42 00:02:31,380 --> 00:02:35,060 S2: Marjorie Taylor Greene. Uh, that actually meant that she could 43 00:02:35,060 --> 00:02:37,380 S2: no longer exist in politics. And in fact, she's resigned 44 00:02:37,380 --> 00:02:40,940 S2: from the House of Representatives last week. Her political career, 45 00:02:40,940 --> 00:02:43,580 S2: for the moment, is over. So that is his power. 46 00:02:43,780 --> 00:02:48,420 S2: I think you're right. Hardcore MAGA ideology conflicts with what 47 00:02:48,419 --> 00:02:51,780 S2: he's doing, but as long as he's executing it successfully, 48 00:02:52,460 --> 00:02:53,940 S2: he's not threatened at all by it. 49 00:02:54,340 --> 00:02:58,440 S1: Interesting. Okay. And so I guess moving on. We've got 50 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,640 S1: to talk about Greenland because of course, the day after 51 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,079 S1: the US attack on Venezuela, Stephen Miller, who is Trump's 52 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,720 S1: deputy chief of staff for policy, said that Greenland rightfully 53 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:11,600 S1: belonged to the US and that, quote, nobody's going to 54 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,440 S1: fight the US military over the future of Greenland. I mean, 55 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:19,399 S1: this is massive. So how is this going down with Republicans? 56 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:21,919 S2: I think they I think they're very cautious about it, 57 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:23,960 S2: because at the heart of it is and this actually 58 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,040 S2: gets to is the party still something of a party 59 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,840 S2: of Ronald Reagan or is it something completely different? And 60 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,200 S2: NATO was established in the wake of World War Two. 61 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,080 S2: And all those institutions, the United Nations and so forth, 62 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,960 S2: were established to prevent another world war. And what and 63 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:44,320 S2: Trump has been clear, he wants to dismantle NATO. And 64 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,720 S2: so there's nothing in his mind inhibiting him, using physical 65 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:52,600 S2: force to obtain Greenland. And even when told by NATO 66 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,850 S2: leaders that they do not like this at all, that 67 00:03:56,850 --> 00:03:59,210 S2: this is a mortal threat to the alliance. It's a 68 00:03:59,210 --> 00:04:03,529 S2: threat to everything that we stand for. He's still persisting. Um, 69 00:04:03,570 --> 00:04:07,250 S2: when this erupted, uh, a few days ago, it made 70 00:04:07,250 --> 00:04:09,090 S2: me think, well, what does he want out of Australia? 71 00:04:09,090 --> 00:04:11,050 S2: I think maybe the Port of Darwin looks pretty good 72 00:04:11,050 --> 00:04:12,290 S2: to him right now. 73 00:04:12,570 --> 00:04:13,290 S1: Absolutely. 74 00:04:13,810 --> 00:04:17,610 S2: We will see. But when he was elected and he 75 00:04:17,610 --> 00:04:20,210 S2: was going for his America First agenda, and that America 76 00:04:20,210 --> 00:04:23,850 S2: has the ability to protect the Western Hemisphere against foreign 77 00:04:23,850 --> 00:04:26,770 S2: interference and will do it. And because it needs, um, 78 00:04:26,770 --> 00:04:30,529 S2: energy and critical minerals, uh, he will do what is 79 00:04:30,529 --> 00:04:33,090 S2: necessary to get those resources. You had the Prime minister 80 00:04:33,089 --> 00:04:36,570 S2: of Canada say shortly after Trump was elected. Um, the 81 00:04:36,570 --> 00:04:40,770 S2: relationship has changed. Something is different. Chancellor Mertz of Germany 82 00:04:40,890 --> 00:04:44,409 S2: last week said our partnership with the United States of America, 83 00:04:44,410 --> 00:04:47,650 S2: which has long been the reliable guarantor of our security, 84 00:04:47,810 --> 00:04:52,300 S2: is changing. So people see a profound difference. These are 85 00:04:52,300 --> 00:04:57,300 S2: the big tectonic strategic issues about about what is the 86 00:04:57,779 --> 00:05:01,739 S2: relationship between any NATO member, any ally of the United 87 00:05:01,740 --> 00:05:05,060 S2: States and the United States. And he has no intention 88 00:05:05,060 --> 00:05:06,180 S2: of standing down. 89 00:05:06,180 --> 00:05:08,260 S1: But there is more pressure on him in that regard, 90 00:05:08,260 --> 00:05:11,219 S1: isn't there, from other countries? Because I know just recently 91 00:05:11,620 --> 00:05:14,460 S1: there was a massive announcement that came out of Ottawa, 92 00:05:14,460 --> 00:05:18,140 S1: which is that the Canadian government has made a dramatic announcement, 93 00:05:18,140 --> 00:05:20,220 S1: which is that it is no longer going to give 94 00:05:20,220 --> 00:05:24,740 S1: the United States just an automatic use of its territory 95 00:05:24,740 --> 00:05:26,940 S1: in the Arctic, as it always has, as a sort 96 00:05:26,940 --> 00:05:30,180 S1: of flank for NATO. But actually Canada has asserted its 97 00:05:30,180 --> 00:05:33,820 S1: sovereignty and said no. So that's pretty massive, right, Bruce? 98 00:05:34,220 --> 00:05:36,220 S2: It is pretty massive. And actually that is being heard 99 00:05:36,220 --> 00:05:39,780 S2: by Republicans in Congress. But push hasn't come to shove yet. 100 00:05:39,940 --> 00:05:42,700 S2: And I think they if he was to if he 101 00:05:42,700 --> 00:05:45,419 S2: was to use military force to, to take over Greenland, 102 00:05:45,620 --> 00:05:48,060 S2: I think all hell would break loose on Capitol Hill. 103 00:05:48,060 --> 00:05:50,110 S2: And that would be and I don't think it's popular 104 00:05:50,110 --> 00:05:51,830 S2: with the American people and they can't see the point 105 00:05:51,830 --> 00:05:55,270 S2: of it. You want critical minerals out of Greenland? Well, 106 00:05:55,270 --> 00:05:58,070 S2: make a contract to get them, but don't seize the 107 00:05:58,070 --> 00:06:01,790 S2: place to do it. And I think that's how it 108 00:06:01,790 --> 00:06:04,110 S2: just rubs people the wrong way. Are we going off 109 00:06:04,110 --> 00:06:06,990 S2: in a hell bent direction with the United States and 110 00:06:06,990 --> 00:06:10,990 S2: the Americas? Putin in Europe, there's an amorality to it. 111 00:06:11,029 --> 00:06:14,390 S2: It's power. It's not principle. It's not the values that 112 00:06:14,390 --> 00:06:15,830 S2: tie an alliance together. 113 00:06:16,230 --> 00:06:18,469 S1: Okay, so you say that all hell would break loose 114 00:06:18,470 --> 00:06:22,550 S1: even among Republicans, presumably if Trump and the administration were 115 00:06:22,550 --> 00:06:26,510 S1: actually to invade Greenland. But Trump has also threatened up 116 00:06:26,510 --> 00:06:29,469 S1: to a half dozen other countries and territories around the world. 117 00:06:29,470 --> 00:06:34,750 S1: So tell us about what he said about Colombia, Cuba, Iran, Mexico, 118 00:06:35,070 --> 00:06:37,830 S1: and whether that too, I guess, might raise some hell 119 00:06:37,870 --> 00:06:39,630 S1: on Capitol among Republicans. 120 00:06:40,190 --> 00:06:42,830 S2: As far as Colombia is concerned, he's been putting almost 121 00:06:42,830 --> 00:06:46,270 S2: the same degree of pressure on the president, Pedro, there, 122 00:06:46,270 --> 00:06:51,330 S2: as he did on, uh, in, in Venezuela. Um, so 123 00:06:51,370 --> 00:06:54,450 S2: and he keeps saying the president of Colombia better watch 124 00:06:54,450 --> 00:06:57,770 S2: his ass. And so that says to me that they're, uh, 125 00:06:58,089 --> 00:07:00,690 S2: ready to go if I'm the president of Colombia. And 126 00:07:00,690 --> 00:07:04,690 S2: I saw how, uh, how Caracas was executed, I'd be ready. 127 00:07:04,730 --> 00:07:06,490 S2: In other words, I would make it a much tougher 128 00:07:06,490 --> 00:07:11,090 S2: operation in Cuba. Uh, there are if you're following the 129 00:07:11,090 --> 00:07:13,250 S2: news over the past few days, it really does look 130 00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:16,369 S2: like that. The Cuban economy is sinking badly and people 131 00:07:16,370 --> 00:07:20,450 S2: are really hurting and no foods, medicines, inflation and so forth. 132 00:07:20,570 --> 00:07:22,810 S2: Unless you're paid in hard dollars and you have a 133 00:07:22,810 --> 00:07:24,890 S2: lot of them, you can't afford the cost of living 134 00:07:24,890 --> 00:07:29,210 S2: in Cuba. And so the optimistic view is articulated by 135 00:07:29,210 --> 00:07:32,370 S2: the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, is it's collapsing. We're 136 00:07:32,410 --> 00:07:35,330 S2: watching it in real time and it's going to fade away. 137 00:07:35,330 --> 00:07:39,210 S2: But is it in Mexico, there are drug cartels that 138 00:07:39,210 --> 00:07:43,370 S2: are at least as powerful as what you see in Venezuela. And, uh, Trump, 139 00:07:43,370 --> 00:07:46,060 S2: I think, is itching to use physical force on the 140 00:07:46,100 --> 00:07:50,580 S2: on Mexican territory to attack the cartel members. The president 141 00:07:50,580 --> 00:07:57,140 S2: of Mexico, Sheinbaum, has. Um, absolutely. Uh, has said this 142 00:07:57,140 --> 00:07:59,900 S2: would be a terrible mistake and would could be fatal 143 00:07:59,900 --> 00:08:04,900 S2: to the relationship. So the economy is seen as failing, 144 00:08:05,020 --> 00:08:07,900 S2: and therefore they don't have to do any hostile military action. 145 00:08:07,900 --> 00:08:10,140 S2: It's going to collapse of its own weight. It would 146 00:08:10,180 --> 00:08:12,300 S2: be even more severe than what's happened with Canada, because 147 00:08:12,340 --> 00:08:17,300 S2: it would involve military force being used actually against Mexico. Um, 148 00:08:17,300 --> 00:08:20,660 S2: if that happens, I think things really get extremely ugly 149 00:08:20,940 --> 00:08:24,460 S2: as far as Iran is concerned. There have been uprisings 150 00:08:24,460 --> 00:08:28,100 S2: in Iran by people who are, um, really hurt and 151 00:08:28,100 --> 00:08:31,940 S2: worse by the ayatollahs and their regime. Uh, they're in 152 00:08:31,940 --> 00:08:35,780 S2: the streets. Their economy has gone to hell. Uh, Trump 153 00:08:35,780 --> 00:08:38,780 S2: has said we are locked and loaded, ready to help you. Now, 154 00:08:38,820 --> 00:08:41,580 S2: what does that mean? I don't know, my own view 155 00:08:41,580 --> 00:08:45,470 S2: is that, uh, US military intervention on behalf of the 156 00:08:45,470 --> 00:08:48,510 S2: uprising would only redound to the benefit of the ayatollahs, 157 00:08:48,510 --> 00:08:52,829 S2: because this would be the great ugly American power attacking 158 00:08:52,830 --> 00:08:56,030 S2: our country. An American invasion would be really something. 159 00:09:00,550 --> 00:09:04,390 S1: We'll be right back. And let's talk about some other 160 00:09:04,390 --> 00:09:08,030 S1: pushback within MAGA, because just on January 6th, this was, 161 00:09:08,030 --> 00:09:10,630 S1: of course, the fifth anniversary of the attack on the Capitol. 162 00:09:10,830 --> 00:09:13,949 S1: There were several dozen rioters who took part in that 163 00:09:13,950 --> 00:09:17,030 S1: day five years ago. And they have vowed to push back, 164 00:09:17,070 --> 00:09:20,510 S1: even against the Trump administration, if he doesn't do more 165 00:09:20,510 --> 00:09:22,270 S1: for them. So what do they say? 166 00:09:22,950 --> 00:09:26,390 S2: What they're saying is that, okay, thank you for the pardon. 167 00:09:26,390 --> 00:09:31,110 S2: But we went through hell by being arrested, being followed, 168 00:09:31,150 --> 00:09:34,189 S2: being arrested, being tried, being imprisoned and so forth, and 169 00:09:34,190 --> 00:09:37,270 S2: it ruined our lives. So you haven't really restored our lives. Okay, 170 00:09:37,270 --> 00:09:39,630 S2: we have freedom, but there's a lot. We were damaged 171 00:09:39,870 --> 00:09:46,079 S2: and therefore, um, we want more and we want retribution. And, uh, 172 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,840 S2: and so they're angry and out there and they're looking 173 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,440 S2: to their great hero and patron Trump, to do something 174 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:53,520 S2: about it. I don't know what he can or want 175 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:57,160 S2: to do about it, but, uh, it's a live wire 176 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:57,840 S2: for them. 177 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,120 S1: And I want to ask you about whether you think 178 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:05,240 S1: Donald Trump is feeling somewhat threatened by his former vice president, 179 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,520 S1: Mike pence, because we know that the white House has 180 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:12,280 S1: just used a taxpayer funded website to partly lay the 181 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:16,280 S1: blame for the January 6th riots on Capitol Hill at 182 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,880 S1: the feet of Mike pence for rejecting falsehoods about the 183 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:23,800 S1: 2020 election and for allowing the results to be certified. 184 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:26,559 S2: Oh, he did on the day. I mean, he reamed 185 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,520 S2: pence from here to kingdom come when, uh, pence said, 186 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,360 S2: I will not, uh, go with your request and change 187 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,200 S2: the procedures in the Senate to prevent the Senate from 188 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:39,360 S2: certifying the election and having Joe Biden win the election. 189 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,939 S2: And Trump called him all kinds of expletives. And it's continued. 190 00:10:42,940 --> 00:10:46,460 S2: And it's just real hate there. And pence to his 191 00:10:47,100 --> 00:10:50,420 S2: ongoing credit. I mean, it hurt his political career. I 192 00:10:50,420 --> 00:10:52,900 S2: don't think he is at all viable to be a 193 00:10:52,900 --> 00:10:58,699 S2: Republican presidential nominee in his lifetime. And, uh, but nevertheless, 194 00:10:58,700 --> 00:11:03,100 S2: he's standing up for principles. It's also interesting. He's from Indiana. 195 00:11:03,380 --> 00:11:06,300 S2: The state of Indiana was one state that Trump wanted 196 00:11:06,300 --> 00:11:09,300 S2: to put into play, to redraw its electoral lines for 197 00:11:09,300 --> 00:11:12,500 S2: the House of Representatives, to give the Republicans a better 198 00:11:12,500 --> 00:11:15,579 S2: chance of holding control of the House of Representatives. And 199 00:11:15,580 --> 00:11:20,059 S2: the Indiana legislature said no. And it's controlled by Republicans. 200 00:11:20,300 --> 00:11:23,260 S2: And and pence absolutely had a chance in that, whether 201 00:11:23,260 --> 00:11:25,939 S2: or not it catches fire at some point with Republicans 202 00:11:25,940 --> 00:11:28,459 S2: down the road. He is saying on this policy issue, 203 00:11:28,460 --> 00:11:31,380 S2: on our foreign policy, on how we act as a 204 00:11:31,660 --> 00:11:35,420 S2: as leaders in the world. He's continuing. So that message 205 00:11:35,420 --> 00:11:37,980 S2: is still going out there. But yeah, he's, um, a 206 00:11:38,110 --> 00:11:40,230 S2: public enemy as far as Trump is concerned. 207 00:11:40,750 --> 00:11:42,070 S3: So you say that. 208 00:11:42,070 --> 00:11:45,550 S1: Mike pence is unlikely to ever become a viable Republican 209 00:11:45,550 --> 00:11:48,830 S1: candidate for the presidency, but is he maybe putting himself 210 00:11:48,830 --> 00:11:52,670 S1: up as the face of the conservative resistance? And could 211 00:11:52,670 --> 00:11:55,190 S1: he gain some traction? Because we know that more than 212 00:11:55,190 --> 00:11:59,030 S1: a dozen high ranking officials at the Heritage Foundation. That's 213 00:11:59,030 --> 00:12:02,350 S1: the right wing think tank that underpins Trump's power, have 214 00:12:02,390 --> 00:12:04,950 S1: actually left it to join Mike pence and a group 215 00:12:04,950 --> 00:12:07,990 S1: that he has founded. So what's going on here? And 216 00:12:08,030 --> 00:12:10,910 S1: is this a split that could threaten Trump in some way? 217 00:12:11,150 --> 00:12:16,190 S2: Pence sees an opportunity to, on principle, to stand up 218 00:12:16,190 --> 00:12:19,510 S2: for what he believes the true stance of the Republican 219 00:12:19,510 --> 00:12:21,910 S2: Party should be. And he was a very loyal vice president. 220 00:12:21,910 --> 00:12:27,510 S2: But this really comes down to after Trump, what happens. And, um, 221 00:12:27,750 --> 00:12:29,750 S2: on on the one hand, no one can be as 222 00:12:29,750 --> 00:12:32,670 S2: charismatic and suck the oxygen out of the room type 223 00:12:32,670 --> 00:12:36,190 S2: leader as Donald Trump. The then the question is what 224 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:41,200 S2: if his, uh, core policy issues, the tariffs, the deportations, 225 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:45,200 S2: the projection of American power? The Don Rowe Doctrine over 226 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,760 S2: the Western Hemisphere? How much of that sticks and how 227 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:51,200 S2: much of it doesn't? So pence, he's shooting for the 228 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,400 S2: post-Trump era that maybe the party can be pulled back 229 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,640 S2: from its excesses and that actually, that's where most Americans 230 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,960 S2: would like it to be and make it more viable 231 00:12:59,960 --> 00:13:01,760 S2: politically post-Trump. 232 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:02,959 S3: Okay. Well, Bruce, just to wrap. 233 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,920 S1: Up then, the economy, the American economy is not doing 234 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:09,000 S1: well at all. People are really struggling, in particular with 235 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,000 S1: the price of health care. And like I think you 236 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,280 S1: said earlier in the episode, I don't think the majority 237 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:18,560 S1: of Americans want America invading and taking over foreign countries 238 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,920 S1: in Latin America or elsewhere. Trump of course, in all 239 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,439 S1: of this, especially with Venezuela, he's made certain promises, right? 240 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,280 S1: He's gambling. He says, you know, the US is going 241 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:29,520 S1: to take control of a lot of Venezuelan oil. It's 242 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,040 S1: going to make Americans rich. You know, now that Nicolas 243 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:36,170 S1: Maduro is gone, drug trafficking will lessen. So what happens 244 00:13:36,170 --> 00:13:38,770 S1: if these things don't come true? The majority of American 245 00:13:38,770 --> 00:13:42,090 S1: oil companies do not want to go back into Venezuela. 246 00:13:42,130 --> 00:13:46,170 S1: They were in Venezuela. They got burned when Venezuela nationalized 247 00:13:46,170 --> 00:13:49,690 S1: its oil production. And I believe they've said they don't 248 00:13:49,690 --> 00:13:52,290 S1: want to go in. So would that hurt Trump? 249 00:13:52,730 --> 00:13:55,050 S2: Sam, I think you're so right. It's kind of an 250 00:13:55,330 --> 00:13:59,050 S2: amazing proposition. There are no American troops on the ground. 251 00:13:59,090 --> 00:14:03,449 S2: The the the Maduro successor is in charge of the government. 252 00:14:03,450 --> 00:14:05,809 S2: They still have an army. They still have police force. 253 00:14:06,090 --> 00:14:12,250 S2: And nevertheless, Trump is attempting to have complete control over 254 00:14:12,250 --> 00:14:16,490 S2: the oil industry. And I don't think it's an election winner. 255 00:14:16,890 --> 00:14:19,450 S2: I think the election winner is is how the economy 256 00:14:19,450 --> 00:14:24,570 S2: is is going. And there's every likelihood that things will 257 00:14:24,570 --> 00:14:27,210 S2: go wrong down the road. The secret to elections is 258 00:14:27,210 --> 00:14:30,330 S2: the economy and how people feel about it. If the 259 00:14:30,330 --> 00:14:35,070 S2: AI bubble bursts, if tariffs are imposing higher prices on things. 260 00:14:35,070 --> 00:14:37,910 S2: And there is this the word of the year is 261 00:14:37,910 --> 00:14:42,950 S2: affordability and cost of living pressures. If people are not happy, 262 00:14:42,990 --> 00:14:45,910 S2: secure economically, they're going to vote against the white House. 263 00:14:45,910 --> 00:14:49,750 S2: That's why the midterm elections are so will be so interesting, 264 00:14:49,750 --> 00:14:52,950 S2: but also important as far as the next political direction 265 00:14:52,950 --> 00:14:55,750 S2: of the country. So yeah, that's that's that is number one, 266 00:14:55,750 --> 00:14:59,990 S2: two and three issue the economy. And right now, uh, 267 00:15:00,390 --> 00:15:03,670 S2: there were elections in new Jersey and Virginia and in 268 00:15:03,670 --> 00:15:06,510 S2: some local races around the country, Democrats that have won 269 00:15:06,510 --> 00:15:11,950 S2: overwhelmingly in voting in 2025, they expect to win overwhelmingly 270 00:15:11,950 --> 00:15:16,390 S2: in 2026 precisely because of that reason. So. So yes, 271 00:15:16,390 --> 00:15:19,670 S2: we can talk about whether to occupy Greenland until the 272 00:15:19,670 --> 00:15:22,870 S2: cows come home, if they have cows up there. But, uh, 273 00:15:22,870 --> 00:15:26,270 S2: but we have to pay. Keep keep your eye on 274 00:15:26,310 --> 00:15:28,910 S2: how people are feeling about how they're living and whether 275 00:15:28,910 --> 00:15:31,560 S2: it's okay. That's going to be a referendum on the 276 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:32,880 S2: party and the president. 277 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,880 S1: Well, as always, Bruce, thank you so much for your time. 278 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:40,800 S2: Thank you. 279 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,920 S1: Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself 280 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:51,960 S1: and Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Tom 281 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,760 S1: Mackendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our 282 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,920 S1: episodes as soon as they drop, follow the Morning Edition 283 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:02,080 S1: on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Our 284 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:06,359 S1: newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, so to support independent journalism, 285 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:11,840 S1: visit the page or smh.com.au. Subscribe. And to stay up 286 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,240 S1: to date, sign up to our Morning Edition newsletter to 287 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,960 S1: receive a summary of the day's most important news in 288 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,800 S1: your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes. 289 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,200 S1: I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks for listening.