1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:05,240 S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. 2 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:10,120 S1: This is morning edition. I'm Samantha Salinger, Maurice. It's Wednesday, 3 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:16,759 S1: January 14th. The protests that have been spreading across Iran 4 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,760 S1: now for weeks have been growing more violent. Video footage 5 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:26,040 S1: and eyewitnesses described security forces opening fire on protesters, while 6 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,560 S1: reports from human rights agencies say the death toll is 7 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,640 S1: in the hundreds. But could these protests tip over into 8 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:38,920 S1: a counter-revolution? Might Iran's brutal supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 9 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:44,480 S1: and his regime be overthrown? Kylie Moore-gilbert, an Australian Middle 10 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:49,320 S1: Eastern scholar, spent 804 days in an Iranian prison before 11 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:53,560 S1: being released in 2020. Today, she joins me to discuss 12 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,360 S1: how this uprising differs from previous ones in Iran and 13 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:05,380 S1: what it will take for the Iranian regime to fall. So, Kyle, 14 00:01:05,380 --> 00:01:08,339 S1: welcome to the Morning Edition. Thanks for having me on. 15 00:01:08,500 --> 00:01:10,420 S1: To start off, can you just take us through what 16 00:01:10,420 --> 00:01:13,060 S1: is happening now on the streets of Iran? We know 17 00:01:13,060 --> 00:01:15,539 S1: these protests, of course, kicked off a few weeks ago. 18 00:01:15,780 --> 00:01:18,820 S1: They've been spreading across the country. So what sparked them 19 00:01:18,819 --> 00:01:21,179 S1: in the first place, and what sort of chaos and 20 00:01:21,180 --> 00:01:22,420 S1: violence are we seeing? 21 00:01:22,780 --> 00:01:24,580 S2: So first of all, it's really hard to know what 22 00:01:24,580 --> 00:01:27,060 S2: exactly is happening right now on the ground in Iran, 23 00:01:27,060 --> 00:01:29,819 S2: because for the past three days, there's been a complete 24 00:01:29,819 --> 00:01:35,260 S2: communications blackout, including the internet being switched off, landlines, mobile 25 00:01:35,260 --> 00:01:38,660 S2: phone lines being switched off. So very little is actually 26 00:01:38,819 --> 00:01:41,900 S2: being able to filter out of Iran to international audiences. 27 00:01:42,300 --> 00:01:44,580 S2: But what we do know is quite horrific. 28 00:01:45,780 --> 00:01:50,420 S3: Hundreds of people killed bodies lining the streets in Tehran. 29 00:01:53,420 --> 00:02:00,690 S3: Heavily armed security forces firing at crowds. A communications blackout 30 00:02:00,730 --> 00:02:01,810 S3: is still in place. 31 00:02:02,010 --> 00:02:04,850 S2: As you mentioned, these protests started more than two weeks 32 00:02:04,850 --> 00:02:09,649 S2: ago now, and they were initially sparked by economic concerns, 33 00:02:09,889 --> 00:02:13,970 S2: particularly the catastrophic fall of value of the riyal. And 34 00:02:13,970 --> 00:02:17,609 S2: so bizarre merchants and currency traders actually triggered this latest 35 00:02:17,610 --> 00:02:20,970 S2: round of unrest. But very, very speedily it became a 36 00:02:21,130 --> 00:02:24,169 S2: call for the downfall of the regime. And so many 37 00:02:24,169 --> 00:02:26,210 S2: people took to the streets that I think the regime 38 00:02:26,210 --> 00:02:29,209 S2: started to take that very seriously. And as a result, 39 00:02:29,210 --> 00:02:33,169 S2: we've seen this massive, brutal, violent crackdown with live fire 40 00:02:33,169 --> 00:02:38,330 S2: being used against protesters, reports of thousands of dead, hundreds 41 00:02:38,330 --> 00:02:40,970 S2: and hundreds of bodies piling into the morgues and the 42 00:02:40,970 --> 00:02:44,930 S2: hospitals or being cleared off the streets. And a lot 43 00:02:44,930 --> 00:02:47,730 S2: of people are really, really concerned, given this blackout, that, 44 00:02:48,210 --> 00:02:50,690 S2: you know, a massacre is being committed in the darkness. 45 00:02:52,810 --> 00:02:55,050 S1: It's just horrific. And you, of course, have a unique 46 00:02:55,050 --> 00:02:58,950 S1: insight into the Iranian regime and the uprisings there because 47 00:02:58,950 --> 00:03:01,750 S1: you were actually sentenced to ten years in prison in 48 00:03:01,750 --> 00:03:04,790 S1: Iran after being convicted of being a spy without evidence 49 00:03:04,790 --> 00:03:08,350 S1: until you were released in 2020. This is after 804 50 00:03:08,350 --> 00:03:12,070 S1: days spent in prison, a year of that in solitary confinement. Now, 51 00:03:12,070 --> 00:03:15,630 S1: some of this was during the 2019 uprisings. So I 52 00:03:15,630 --> 00:03:17,350 S1: have to ask you, what was your reaction when you 53 00:03:17,350 --> 00:03:20,310 S1: first started seeing just a couple of weeks ago, Iran 54 00:03:20,350 --> 00:03:21,830 S1: erupt yet again? 55 00:03:22,389 --> 00:03:25,710 S2: There are strong echoes of what happened in 2019, although 56 00:03:25,710 --> 00:03:29,070 S2: I think this is on a far wider scale, and 57 00:03:29,110 --> 00:03:33,150 S2: also the scale of the fatalities is probably greater as well. Um, 58 00:03:33,150 --> 00:03:37,510 S2: but both the protests in 2019 and the current protests, um, 59 00:03:37,510 --> 00:03:42,270 S2: of the end of 2025, 2026 were triggered by economic concerns. 60 00:03:42,590 --> 00:03:45,790 S2: This is because the regime has run the Iranian economy 61 00:03:45,790 --> 00:03:48,750 S2: into the ground. You know, inflation is off the scale. 62 00:03:48,870 --> 00:03:52,830 S2: People can't afford to even buy basic foodstuffs, basic medicine. 63 00:03:52,870 --> 00:03:55,150 S2: I think the cost of medicine is up 50% in 64 00:03:55,150 --> 00:03:57,810 S2: the past six months alone. And this is a country 65 00:03:57,810 --> 00:04:00,650 S2: that has some of the most extensive oil and gas 66 00:04:00,650 --> 00:04:03,650 S2: reserves in the world, and has all the potential to become, 67 00:04:03,810 --> 00:04:07,490 S2: you know, a thriving, um, you know, economic powerhouse in 68 00:04:07,490 --> 00:04:11,089 S2: the region. So it's really tragic what's happened. Um, you know, 69 00:04:11,130 --> 00:04:13,690 S2: between 30 and 40% of the country now lives below 70 00:04:13,690 --> 00:04:17,730 S2: the poverty line. And that's a conservative estimate. So 2019 71 00:04:17,730 --> 00:04:22,969 S2: was triggered by, um, removal of subsidies for benzene or petrol, uh, 72 00:04:22,970 --> 00:04:25,330 S2: in Iran. And that led people to take to the streets. 73 00:04:25,330 --> 00:04:28,650 S2: And similar to today, very quickly, it escalated into calls 74 00:04:28,650 --> 00:04:31,450 S2: for the overthrow of the regime. Uh, and, you know, 75 00:04:31,490 --> 00:04:34,050 S2: we also saw a mass movement in 2022 as well, 76 00:04:34,089 --> 00:04:36,810 S2: of course, which was triggered by the death in custody 77 00:04:36,810 --> 00:04:40,409 S2: of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who was beaten to 78 00:04:40,450 --> 00:04:43,610 S2: death by the morality police for not wearing her hijab correctly. 79 00:04:43,930 --> 00:04:47,450 S2: So whatever the trigger is very, very quickly, again and again, 80 00:04:47,450 --> 00:04:50,570 S2: the trend is that the people want this regime gone. Um, 81 00:04:50,570 --> 00:04:53,970 S2: and that's, you know, the overwhelming refrain, no matter which 82 00:04:53,970 --> 00:04:55,610 S2: round of protest we're talking about. 83 00:04:56,170 --> 00:04:57,910 S1: And I'm just wondering, did you have some sort of 84 00:04:57,950 --> 00:05:01,270 S1: visceral reaction when you're seeing these horrific images, the ones 85 00:05:01,270 --> 00:05:03,469 S1: we have been able to see coming out of Iran now, 86 00:05:03,510 --> 00:05:06,470 S1: you know, the bodies in the streets and the structures 87 00:05:06,470 --> 00:05:09,510 S1: lit on fire, and of course, the crackdown from the regime, 88 00:05:09,510 --> 00:05:13,350 S1: because of course, you suffered so horrifically under the regime 89 00:05:13,350 --> 00:05:14,589 S1: when you were there in prison. 90 00:05:14,910 --> 00:05:18,670 S2: Yeah. Every time something like this erupts in Iran, it 91 00:05:18,670 --> 00:05:20,229 S2: really does take me back. 92 00:05:22,790 --> 00:05:27,950 S4: Australian academic Kylie Moore-gilbert spent 800 days in an Iranian prison, 93 00:05:27,950 --> 00:05:31,350 S4: serving a ten year sentence for the false charge of spying. 94 00:05:31,589 --> 00:05:35,270 S4: Iranian state media followed every step of her release, which 95 00:05:35,270 --> 00:05:37,270 S4: began outside her prison. 96 00:05:37,910 --> 00:05:40,870 S2: A lot of the protesters that were arrested in 2019 97 00:05:40,910 --> 00:05:43,430 S2: were housed in the facility that I was being kept 98 00:05:43,430 --> 00:05:45,510 S2: in at the time, that dwelleth unit run by the 99 00:05:45,510 --> 00:05:48,990 S2: Revolutionary Guard inside Evin prison. And, you know, I saw 100 00:05:48,990 --> 00:05:51,710 S2: many of them. I saw them being taken to interrogation. 101 00:05:51,710 --> 00:05:56,060 S2: They were going throughout the night 24 hours a day, blindfolded, handcuffed, 102 00:05:57,020 --> 00:06:02,380 S2: kept in solitary confinement. It you know, it's obviously really upsetting. 103 00:06:02,380 --> 00:06:05,300 S2: And I can imagine that that exact stuff is happening 104 00:06:05,300 --> 00:06:07,300 S2: right now and perhaps even worse. You know, we've had 105 00:06:07,300 --> 00:06:10,779 S2: reports of horrific beatings and torture being meted out to 106 00:06:10,820 --> 00:06:13,940 S2: protesters that have been arrested this time around. Reports of 107 00:06:13,940 --> 00:06:17,060 S2: young girls, ten year old, 12 year old, young girls 108 00:06:17,060 --> 00:06:20,140 S2: in their hundreds being kept in some of the women's prisons, 109 00:06:20,180 --> 00:06:22,100 S2: not able to tell their families where they are or 110 00:06:22,140 --> 00:06:25,900 S2: even that they're alive. Um, and the regime's recently announced 111 00:06:25,900 --> 00:06:29,219 S2: it's going to start executing protesters. Protesters that were arrested 112 00:06:29,220 --> 00:06:32,220 S2: just last week, um, have already been rushed through and 113 00:06:32,220 --> 00:06:34,980 S2: sentenced to death. And there's reports that one young man, 114 00:06:35,020 --> 00:06:39,659 S2: Erfan Sultani, has been scheduled for execution on Wednesday. Um, 115 00:06:39,660 --> 00:06:43,140 S2: so this is obviously a mockery of of any semblance 116 00:06:43,140 --> 00:06:46,900 S2: of justice. And, um, it's really, really concerning. It shows 117 00:06:46,900 --> 00:06:50,020 S2: the regime believes it's, you know, it's existential now for them. 118 00:06:51,900 --> 00:06:54,060 S1: I wanted to ask you that because we've seen some 119 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,719 S1: commentary from former CIA senior Middle East analyst William Asher. 120 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:02,080 S1: He's called this, quote the biggest moment in Iran since 1979, 121 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:04,279 S1: which is when the Shah, the former king of Iran, 122 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,400 S1: was overthrown and the ayatollahs took over. And then, of course, 123 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:11,160 S1: implemented their brutal authoritarian regime. So do you agree? Do 124 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,720 S1: you think this is the biggest moment in Iran since 1979? 125 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,120 S2: I think it has the potential to be so if 126 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,320 S2: the protesters succeed. You know, there have been many such 127 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:24,640 S2: statements for previous rounds of protest, and the regime clawed 128 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,960 S2: it back in the end through brutal violence on the streets. 129 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,600 S2: So I think the regime is terminal. I think we're 130 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,880 S2: going to see the downfall of this regime at some point, 131 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:35,880 S2: whether or not this is the turning point and this 132 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,240 S2: is the moment, I'm not sure, but I hope it is. 133 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,720 S2: Certainly there's a there's a vibe shift happening here. It 134 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:45,960 S2: does feel different this time around. 2022 was extremely widespread 135 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,840 S2: as well, and it went on for more than 12 months. 136 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:51,080 S2: I mean, it was a really lingering, you know, set 137 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,700 S2: of protests and all over the world reflected in the 138 00:07:53,700 --> 00:07:56,860 S2: diaspora communities. People were protesting as well, but there was 139 00:07:56,860 --> 00:07:58,660 S2: really a feeling of hope back then. I mean, I 140 00:07:58,660 --> 00:08:00,700 S2: took part in some of the protests I was active 141 00:08:00,700 --> 00:08:03,020 S2: in on the scene at the time, and there was 142 00:08:03,020 --> 00:08:05,420 S2: just this hope that maybe this is the new dawn 143 00:08:05,420 --> 00:08:08,820 S2: for Iran. Maybe we can instate democracy this time around. 144 00:08:08,860 --> 00:08:12,619 S2: I really feel like it's characterized by desperation and just 145 00:08:12,660 --> 00:08:15,060 S2: the feeling of I've got nothing to lose. You know, 146 00:08:15,100 --> 00:08:17,820 S2: even if I die, I've got nothing to lose anyway. 147 00:08:17,860 --> 00:08:20,140 S2: You know, people are saying, well, I'm half dead as 148 00:08:20,140 --> 00:08:22,780 S2: it is. I can't even put food on the table. Um, 149 00:08:22,820 --> 00:08:24,580 S2: so I may as well go out and protest. And 150 00:08:24,580 --> 00:08:26,460 S2: who cares if they shoot me and that kind of 151 00:08:26,500 --> 00:08:29,140 S2: level of desperation? Just, you know, I haven't seen in 152 00:08:29,140 --> 00:08:31,540 S2: the past, it shows that they're willing to risk their 153 00:08:31,540 --> 00:08:32,940 S2: lives to get rid of this regime. 154 00:08:32,980 --> 00:08:35,140 S1: And so you mentioned just before, you know, this could 155 00:08:35,140 --> 00:08:38,340 S1: be the overthrow. It could happen now if the protest succeeds. 156 00:08:38,340 --> 00:08:41,339 S1: So what will it take for the protests to succeed? 157 00:08:41,380 --> 00:08:43,180 S1: You know, could it be related to what you're saying? 158 00:08:43,179 --> 00:08:45,380 S1: Is this vibe shift? You know, that it feels different 159 00:08:45,420 --> 00:08:47,100 S1: now from previous protests? 160 00:08:47,420 --> 00:08:50,939 S2: I think if we look throughout history, particularly 20th century 161 00:08:50,940 --> 00:08:54,490 S2: and also the Arab Spring, 21st century history of protest. 162 00:08:54,530 --> 00:08:57,809 S2: We really need to see a splintering in the pro-regime elites, 163 00:08:57,809 --> 00:09:00,610 S2: and that includes the security forces, of which there are 164 00:09:00,610 --> 00:09:02,850 S2: many in Iran, and some of them are kind of 165 00:09:02,890 --> 00:09:07,490 S2: rival factions of one another, um, of varying ideological, um, 166 00:09:07,530 --> 00:09:10,370 S2: levels of adherence to the supreme leader. So if we 167 00:09:10,410 --> 00:09:13,570 S2: saw some kind of splintering, either within the political elites 168 00:09:13,570 --> 00:09:16,970 S2: or the social elites that traditionally support the regime or 169 00:09:16,970 --> 00:09:20,130 S2: the security forces, for example, the military refusing to fire 170 00:09:20,130 --> 00:09:25,930 S2: on protesters, um, or defections, prominent people, prominent commanders, this 171 00:09:25,970 --> 00:09:30,050 S2: would be what I think is needed to redress the 172 00:09:30,050 --> 00:09:33,250 S2: balance of violence on the streets. You know, the fact that, um, 173 00:09:33,290 --> 00:09:35,730 S2: the monopoly on violence is all in the regime's hands 174 00:09:35,730 --> 00:09:38,569 S2: right now, and the people are defenseless. This is what 175 00:09:38,610 --> 00:09:41,490 S2: it took during many of the Arab Spring uprisings that 176 00:09:41,490 --> 00:09:46,290 S2: were successful, um, or that, you know, unfortunately, became civil wars, 177 00:09:46,330 --> 00:09:49,690 S2: like what we saw in, in Libya or Yemen or Syria. 178 00:09:49,690 --> 00:09:51,530 S2: I don't think that will be the fate of Iran. 179 00:09:51,670 --> 00:09:54,230 S2: The Iranian people do not want to take up arms. 180 00:09:54,230 --> 00:09:57,910 S2: I think it's been an overwhelmingly peaceful revolution so far. Um, 181 00:09:57,910 --> 00:10:00,910 S2: but there is a danger there. Um, and, you know, 182 00:10:00,950 --> 00:10:04,590 S2: no revolution can succeed really, without that splintering or without 183 00:10:04,590 --> 00:10:08,870 S2: some external intervention. And, um, I don't think either option, 184 00:10:08,910 --> 00:10:12,350 S2: you know, most people in Iran do not want the 185 00:10:12,350 --> 00:10:16,510 S2: United States to militarily intervene or Israel or any other power. Um, 186 00:10:16,710 --> 00:10:20,350 S2: what I've heard consistently said is that this is our 187 00:10:20,550 --> 00:10:23,270 S2: job that we need to complete. We need to remove 188 00:10:23,270 --> 00:10:26,910 S2: our own, um, tyrannical regime ourselves. You know, we're accepting 189 00:10:26,910 --> 00:10:29,949 S2: and hopeful that we'll get support from abroad, but we 190 00:10:29,950 --> 00:10:33,070 S2: don't want Trump to come in and do it for us. Um, 191 00:10:33,110 --> 00:10:35,590 S2: there'll be a lot of unintended consequences that could ensue 192 00:10:35,590 --> 00:10:38,550 S2: if that was to happen. Uh, and, you know, this 193 00:10:38,550 --> 00:10:41,350 S2: is an organic uprising. They're not the puppets of the 194 00:10:41,390 --> 00:10:44,710 S2: US or any other power. Um, these are this is 195 00:10:44,750 --> 00:10:48,230 S2: a grassroots led movement. Um, and they want to finish 196 00:10:48,230 --> 00:10:49,270 S2: the job themselves. 197 00:10:49,670 --> 00:10:51,970 S1: So what do you think would be more likely to happen? 198 00:10:52,010 --> 00:10:55,210 S1: You know, regime toppling or the regime staying in power 199 00:10:55,210 --> 00:10:57,570 S1: and a transfer of power to someone else? Because we 200 00:10:57,570 --> 00:11:00,850 S1: know we've been hearing comments from the former Shah's son, 201 00:11:00,850 --> 00:11:04,890 S1: Reza Pahlavi. He's been making statements saying that he'd like 202 00:11:04,890 --> 00:11:07,730 S1: to be a part of, you know, the Iranian transition 203 00:11:07,730 --> 00:11:09,970 S1: to democracy. I don't know how credible or how much 204 00:11:09,970 --> 00:11:13,410 S1: support he has. So what do you think might be 205 00:11:13,410 --> 00:11:14,369 S1: the most likely? 206 00:11:15,250 --> 00:11:17,610 S2: What is the best option for Iran and what is 207 00:11:17,610 --> 00:11:20,890 S2: the most likely thing to happen? Sadly, two very different 208 00:11:20,890 --> 00:11:24,930 S2: scenarios in my view. Um, I think the overwhelming majority 209 00:11:24,929 --> 00:11:27,170 S2: of the protestors and of the people in Iran want 210 00:11:27,170 --> 00:11:30,370 S2: some form of transition to democracy. Whether or not that's 211 00:11:30,370 --> 00:11:33,010 S2: what they would get depends on the manner in which 212 00:11:33,010 --> 00:11:37,449 S2: the regime departs. Uh, the danger in some of Trump's pronouncements, 213 00:11:37,450 --> 00:11:40,290 S2: for example, is that, you know, the Venezuela option. So 214 00:11:40,290 --> 00:11:42,610 S2: removing the guy at the top, letting the rest of 215 00:11:42,610 --> 00:11:46,330 S2: the regime edifice remain in place, um, could just see 216 00:11:46,330 --> 00:11:48,970 S2: a continuation of the regime, perhaps in a slightly different 217 00:11:48,970 --> 00:11:53,440 S2: ideological form, and that's not what the people want. But 218 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,120 S2: there has to be some accommodation, obviously, with some elements 219 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,960 S2: of the regime. I mean, that's splintering that I mentioned earlier. 220 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,280 S2: But also, you know, you do have hundreds of thousands 221 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:05,319 S2: of people that still support the regime that perhaps are 222 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:09,520 S2: ideologically wedded to its worldview. Uh, what do you do 223 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,679 S2: with them if you overthrow these guys somehow? If you 224 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,840 S2: were to wave a magic wand and they would disappear, 225 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,000 S2: the regime would disappear tomorrow. What are you going to 226 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,440 S2: do with all of the regime's supporters in the more 227 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,720 S2: low level, members of of its, you know, officialdom or 228 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,520 S2: military or IRGC? You have to have some kind of 229 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,800 S2: accommodation which might be politically unpalatable to the more strident 230 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:33,280 S2: factions that are opposing the regime right now. And, you know, 231 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:38,199 S2: Reza Pahlavi, um, he has a sizable cohort of support 232 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,240 S2: in the diaspora, and they're very noisy, particularly online and 233 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,880 S2: in diaspora protests. He does have some support within Iran, 234 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,480 S2: and we've seen people chanting his name in the protests. 235 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:52,940 S2: But there are also, considerable bodies of people, including political organizations. 236 00:12:53,260 --> 00:12:56,420 S2: The Kurdish organizations, for example, have come out and said, 237 00:12:56,420 --> 00:12:58,900 S2: we do not support Reza Pahlavi. We will not have 238 00:12:58,900 --> 00:13:00,980 S2: a return to the monarchy. You know, you need to 239 00:13:00,980 --> 00:13:04,420 S2: remember that the 1979 revolution happened for a reason. And 240 00:13:04,980 --> 00:13:08,580 S2: Reza Pahlavi, his father, Mohammad Reza, the Shah at the time, 241 00:13:08,580 --> 00:13:11,580 S2: was not a Democrat. You know, he was also repressive. 242 00:13:11,620 --> 00:13:15,900 S2: His Suffolk security services were also torturing people in prison. Um, 243 00:13:15,900 --> 00:13:18,580 S2: and whilst a lot of Iranians have a sense of 244 00:13:18,580 --> 00:13:22,420 S2: nostalgia for that era, Iran was certainly more prosperous back 245 00:13:22,460 --> 00:13:25,420 S2: then under the Shah and was travelling in the right direction. 246 00:13:25,420 --> 00:13:28,700 S2: Many would claim, um, as opposed to now. Um, it 247 00:13:28,700 --> 00:13:32,060 S2: doesn't mean that that's the democracy that the Iranian people 248 00:13:32,059 --> 00:13:36,740 S2: overwhelmingly are calling for. And Reza Pahlavi, he says all 249 00:13:36,740 --> 00:13:40,140 S2: the right things, and he seems committed to democracy. He 250 00:13:40,140 --> 00:13:43,780 S2: could definitely play a role in a transitional council or, 251 00:13:43,820 --> 00:13:46,340 S2: you know, a group of prominent Iranian opposition leaders that 252 00:13:46,340 --> 00:13:51,120 S2: might potentially transition to holding democratic elections. But is he alone? 253 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,920 S2: The solution to this? I don't think so. Um, and 254 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,920 S2: a number of his supporters and advisers have shown very worrying, uh, 255 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:02,880 S2: far right extremist tendencies that don't necessarily align with Reza Pahlavi, 256 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:07,199 S2: his own pronouncements about democracy. So I would definitely, you know, 257 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:09,840 S2: flag that as an area for concern. I think he 258 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:11,959 S2: does potentially have a role to play, but I don't 259 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:13,960 S2: think we're going to see him sweep back into power 260 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,880 S2: and reinstate the monarchy as it was in 1979. 261 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:22,880 S1: We'll be right back. 262 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,920 S5: Hello to crime nuts and nuts. Just generally we're back 263 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:37,800 S5: with series seven of Naked City. I'd like to say 264 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:40,680 S5: the delay was technical, but it's basically I'm bone lazy 265 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,040 S5: forced now to do it. It's pretty good. We talk 266 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:48,100 S5: about cold cases, hot cases and cases that were never solved. 267 00:14:48,660 --> 00:14:56,140 S5: Notorious crooks. Brilliant detectives and bughouse reporters. Naked city out now. 268 00:14:59,980 --> 00:15:02,860 S1: And you mentioned United States President Donald Trump back there. 269 00:15:02,860 --> 00:15:05,260 S1: You said that the majority of Iranian people do not 270 00:15:05,260 --> 00:15:08,620 S1: want America coming in and trying to rescue them. They 271 00:15:08,620 --> 00:15:10,780 S1: don't they don't want to have their government be some 272 00:15:10,820 --> 00:15:14,260 S1: sort of puppet power in, you know, that's the US 273 00:15:14,260 --> 00:15:17,460 S1: is controlling. But what is the US's role in Iran 274 00:15:17,660 --> 00:15:19,260 S1: or its responsibility here? 275 00:15:20,660 --> 00:15:24,780 S2: The US does not necessarily have an explicit responsibility. I mean, 276 00:15:24,820 --> 00:15:28,100 S2: there's the the RTP, the responsibility to protect doctrine under 277 00:15:28,100 --> 00:15:31,020 S2: international law. But, you know, we can't really claim that 278 00:15:31,020 --> 00:15:33,660 S2: the Trump administration is, you know, a big fan of 279 00:15:33,660 --> 00:15:37,740 S2: international law anyway. And I doubt that that's their motivating principle. Um, 280 00:15:37,780 --> 00:15:42,580 S2: I would, you know, probably give a more mercantile interpretation 281 00:15:42,580 --> 00:15:45,940 S2: to that. And, you know, seeing what's just happened in Venezuela, um, 282 00:15:46,050 --> 00:15:48,090 S2: Iran has some of the biggest oil and gas reserves 283 00:15:48,090 --> 00:15:50,450 S2: in the world, and obviously it's a long standing foe 284 00:15:50,450 --> 00:15:53,450 S2: of the United States. So there would be other motivations 285 00:15:53,450 --> 00:15:56,770 S2: there if Trump was to intervene beyond, you know, a 286 00:15:56,770 --> 00:16:00,090 S2: sense of responsibility for protecting innocent protesters being gunned down 287 00:16:00,090 --> 00:16:02,770 S2: in the streets. Um, that being said, a lot of 288 00:16:02,770 --> 00:16:07,650 S2: people in Iran have welcomed Donald Trump's comments on Truth Social. Um, 289 00:16:07,690 --> 00:16:09,650 S2: you know, even when I was in prison, many of 290 00:16:09,650 --> 00:16:12,690 S2: the activists and political prisoners I was imprisoned alongside would 291 00:16:12,690 --> 00:16:14,770 S2: say things to me like, we hope Trump will come 292 00:16:14,770 --> 00:16:18,570 S2: and bomb Iran. And this was Trump his first term 293 00:16:18,570 --> 00:16:22,290 S2: in office. You know, there is some sentiment there that 294 00:16:22,290 --> 00:16:25,970 S2: thinks that an intervention by Trump would be useful and helpful. Um, 295 00:16:26,010 --> 00:16:31,050 S2: but more broadly, Iranians are also aware that certain aspects, 296 00:16:31,530 --> 00:16:35,490 S2: not only pro-regime, um, but, you know, elements of Western media, too, 297 00:16:35,770 --> 00:16:38,450 S2: are sympathetic to the charge that they are acting at 298 00:16:38,450 --> 00:16:41,050 S2: the behest of Trump or of the Americans or of 299 00:16:41,050 --> 00:16:44,050 S2: Netanyahu and the Israelis. And they're very keen to assert 300 00:16:44,050 --> 00:16:46,790 S2: that that's not the case, that this is an organic uprising. 301 00:16:46,790 --> 00:16:49,990 S2: They've risen up many times before. Um, they don't act 302 00:16:49,990 --> 00:16:52,590 S2: at the behest of, you know, foreign powers. But this 303 00:16:52,590 --> 00:16:54,870 S2: is something that they want at the grassroots level. They 304 00:16:54,870 --> 00:16:58,110 S2: want to remove this regime for their own sakes. So, 305 00:16:58,270 --> 00:17:01,030 S2: you know, there's a diversity of opinion about Trump within 306 00:17:01,030 --> 00:17:04,470 S2: Iran and in the diaspora. Uh, I don't necessarily think 307 00:17:04,470 --> 00:17:07,390 S2: that a military intervention will be at all helpful, but 308 00:17:07,390 --> 00:17:10,149 S2: they do appreciate his rhetorical support, I would say. 309 00:17:10,430 --> 00:17:12,550 S1: Which, of course, is particularly pertinent because just in the 310 00:17:12,550 --> 00:17:15,270 S1: last few weeks, he's been threatening to to crack down 311 00:17:15,270 --> 00:17:18,990 S1: on Iran should the regime continue to kill innocent protesters. Uh, 312 00:17:18,990 --> 00:17:21,030 S1: would you have flagged you certainly think is is going 313 00:17:21,070 --> 00:17:22,990 S1: to be building over the next few days and weeks, 314 00:17:22,990 --> 00:17:26,189 S1: if anything, do you think that that threat is a 315 00:17:26,230 --> 00:17:27,750 S1: do you think it's credible? Do you think that he 316 00:17:27,750 --> 00:17:30,910 S1: might actually crack down on any practical way, uh, on 317 00:17:30,910 --> 00:17:33,389 S1: the Iranian regime? And do you think that that's giving 318 00:17:33,390 --> 00:17:37,030 S1: any Iranians hope from whatever contact you have with your 319 00:17:37,150 --> 00:17:38,870 S1: friends and acquaintances in Iran. 320 00:17:39,550 --> 00:17:42,389 S2: With Trump, anything's possible, right? You know, he's already bombed 321 00:17:42,390 --> 00:17:45,770 S2: Iran once during last year's war between Iran and Israel, 322 00:17:45,770 --> 00:17:50,530 S2: and he's clearly developed a taste for military interventionism, given 323 00:17:50,530 --> 00:17:54,649 S2: what's happened in Venezuela, despite his pronouncements to be an isolationist. 324 00:17:54,650 --> 00:17:57,330 S2: So we never know what he's going to do. But, 325 00:17:57,369 --> 00:17:59,409 S2: you know, where is he going to bomb and who 326 00:17:59,410 --> 00:18:01,610 S2: is he going to bomb this? This is a very 327 00:18:01,609 --> 00:18:05,449 S2: different situation to dismantling the nuclear program, which is what he, 328 00:18:05,490 --> 00:18:08,410 S2: you know, he bombed in June of last year. These 329 00:18:08,410 --> 00:18:11,369 S2: protests are happening all over the country. Units of the 330 00:18:11,369 --> 00:18:15,010 S2: IRGC and the Basij militia force are putting them down violently, 331 00:18:15,050 --> 00:18:17,129 S2: shooting people in the streets in all of the main 332 00:18:17,130 --> 00:18:20,730 S2: cities and towns across the country. We can assume Ayatollah 333 00:18:20,730 --> 00:18:24,010 S2: Khamenei is hiding out in a bunker somewhere. What is 334 00:18:24,010 --> 00:18:25,890 S2: he going to bomb and where? And what difference is 335 00:18:25,890 --> 00:18:28,370 S2: that going to make? There's a sizable risk. It could 336 00:18:28,410 --> 00:18:33,410 S2: actually backfire. Certainly any American bombing of Iran would, um, 337 00:18:33,609 --> 00:18:36,609 S2: you know, push all of the supporters of the regime 338 00:18:36,609 --> 00:18:39,490 S2: even more firmly behind it and maybe see more, you know, 339 00:18:39,530 --> 00:18:42,250 S2: take to the streets, um, in support of the Basij 340 00:18:42,250 --> 00:18:47,320 S2: in the IRGC. It would mobilize those forces further, you know, 341 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,040 S2: within the regime and perhaps would act as a disincentive 342 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,960 S2: for any defections or any, you know, efforts to not 343 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:57,160 S2: fire on protesters or, you know, within that, that grouping. So, 344 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,760 S2: I mean, I'm not quite sure what it could achieve. Um, 345 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,520 S2: you know, they could potentially take out the Supreme leader, 346 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,680 S2: but then whoever replaces him could be even worse. Um, 347 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,040 S2: the supreme leader is 86 years old. He's an old man. Um, 348 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,639 S2: he's in ill health. Predictions of his death have, you know, 349 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,480 S2: been swirling for years and years at this point? Um, 350 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,440 S2: it's thought that he might be the last cleric that 351 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,359 S2: rules the Islamic Republic and that an IRGC, a Revolutionary 352 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,040 S2: Guard cohort or strong man might step into the breach 353 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,639 S2: if and when he passes away. So, you know, is 354 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,959 S2: that necessarily a better outcome? I don't think so. I 355 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,359 S2: think better the devil you know when it comes to Khamenei. 356 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,400 S2: So yeah, it's all really super fraught and really impossible 357 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,440 S2: to predict. But I think there are no, no good 358 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,360 S2: options for Trump at the moment, really. 359 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,460 S1: And that's so interesting what you say about how a 360 00:19:43,460 --> 00:19:47,540 S1: potential strike from the US could actually strengthen the IRGC, 361 00:19:47,580 --> 00:19:49,659 S1: as opposed to sort of breaking them down at all. 362 00:19:49,660 --> 00:19:51,100 S1: And I just wanted to pick up on something you 363 00:19:51,100 --> 00:19:54,180 S1: said earlier because you said, if anything, to make this 364 00:19:54,180 --> 00:19:56,820 S1: protest a success and actually have it be something that 365 00:19:56,820 --> 00:20:00,619 S1: overthrows the regime, it would take a splintering among the 366 00:20:00,619 --> 00:20:04,739 S1: political elites. Um, and presumably, uh, the refusal of the 367 00:20:04,740 --> 00:20:09,419 S1: IRGC to, to act militarily against the people. So I 368 00:20:09,420 --> 00:20:12,060 S1: guess what might be different this time, like what would 369 00:20:12,060 --> 00:20:16,060 S1: incentivize the IRGC or the political elites to splinter and 370 00:20:16,060 --> 00:20:18,100 S1: to actually do what they would have to do for 371 00:20:18,100 --> 00:20:21,940 S1: this to become an actually something that overthrows the regime? 372 00:20:23,340 --> 00:20:25,540 S2: I think what's different this time is the level of 373 00:20:25,540 --> 00:20:28,700 S2: vulnerability of the regime itself. You know, the writing is 374 00:20:28,700 --> 00:20:31,380 S2: on the wall. We know that this regime is teetering. 375 00:20:31,619 --> 00:20:34,140 S2: The IRGC, the Basij, and it's all, you know, the 376 00:20:34,140 --> 00:20:39,460 S2: the traditional ultra religious voting bloc or constituency that has 377 00:20:39,460 --> 00:20:42,520 S2: supported the regime. They can also see that. They can 378 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,320 S2: see that it wasn't able to defend itself during the 379 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,760 S2: 12 day war with Israel. You know, Israel took out 380 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:51,040 S2: all of its air defenses immediately. They still don't have 381 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,920 S2: control over the skies even now in Iran. You know, 382 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,960 S2: they haven't reestablished that deterrence factor. Um, the high level 383 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,200 S2: assassinations of regime officials during that war also. I mean, 384 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,399 S2: they've been infiltrated to the highest possible levels. That was 385 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,240 S2: highly humiliating and embarrassing for the regime, and it sort 386 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,719 S2: of revealed them to be the emperor with no clothes. 387 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,840 S2: In many ways, you know, the emptiness of their rhetoric 388 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:17,320 S2: and their attempts to project strength was revealed. The regime's 389 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,920 S2: vulnerability would mean that some, perhaps at a certain tipping point, 390 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,000 S2: might judge that it's better to jump to the other 391 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,800 S2: side and be on the winning side than to stay 392 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,960 S2: and potentially have the regime fall and face whatever retribution 393 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,479 S2: might be meted out following that. Um, this is what 394 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,760 S2: we've seen in previous revolutions. It's that sense that, you know, 395 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,239 S2: you're fleeing a sinking ship. Um, and you want to 396 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,390 S2: be on the right side of history. Now, also, we've 397 00:21:43,390 --> 00:21:47,910 S2: seen reticence to fire upon protesters, um, in more isolated, 398 00:21:48,190 --> 00:21:51,430 S2: you know, incidents in previous rounds of protest. But there 399 00:21:51,430 --> 00:21:55,390 S2: are reports that, um, Khamenei, the supreme leader, is reluctant 400 00:21:55,390 --> 00:21:59,470 S2: to incorporate the regular military into these operations because there 401 00:21:59,510 --> 00:22:01,710 S2: are fears that a number of them won't fire on 402 00:22:01,750 --> 00:22:05,350 S2: their compatriots on the streets. That's why they're only at 403 00:22:05,350 --> 00:22:09,110 S2: the moment using the more hardline ideological Revolutionary Guard and 404 00:22:09,109 --> 00:22:12,830 S2: Basij militia forces. So there are certainly fears that some 405 00:22:12,830 --> 00:22:16,510 S2: of these, um, conscripts, because many of them are conscripts, 406 00:22:16,510 --> 00:22:20,310 S2: young men in the military might actually refuse orders. Um, 407 00:22:20,310 --> 00:22:22,390 S2: and that's I think, you know, if that was to happen, 408 00:22:22,390 --> 00:22:23,910 S2: that would be seismic as well. 409 00:22:24,390 --> 00:22:27,950 S1: That's so interesting. And, Kylie, just to wrap up, last year, 410 00:22:27,950 --> 00:22:30,910 S1: you spoke at a convention in Geneva and you spoke 411 00:22:30,910 --> 00:22:34,590 S1: of being ashamed of numerous Western governments, including Australia's government, 412 00:22:34,830 --> 00:22:37,630 S1: at turning a blind eye to sanctions on Iran and 413 00:22:37,630 --> 00:22:40,490 S1: letting the regime essentially go about its business as usual. 414 00:22:40,490 --> 00:22:43,770 S1: This was in the wake of the 2022 uprisings. So 415 00:22:43,770 --> 00:22:46,369 S1: I'm just wondering what message, if any, you have for 416 00:22:46,369 --> 00:22:49,290 S1: the Australian government now in terms of how it should 417 00:22:49,290 --> 00:22:52,130 S1: be supporting the Iranian people? And do you think that 418 00:22:52,130 --> 00:22:54,929 S1: our government has been turning a blind eye? I've been 419 00:22:54,930 --> 00:22:59,090 S1: complicit in the continued persecution of the Iranian people by 420 00:22:59,130 --> 00:23:00,570 S1: the Iranian regime. 421 00:23:01,690 --> 00:23:05,250 S2: So these remarks were a few years ago, certainly before 422 00:23:05,410 --> 00:23:08,890 S2: Anthony Albanese expelled the Iranian ambassador last year and proscribed 423 00:23:08,890 --> 00:23:11,570 S2: the IRGC as a terror organisation within Australia, which I 424 00:23:11,570 --> 00:23:14,730 S2: was very supportive of. And I applaud them for doing 425 00:23:14,730 --> 00:23:17,409 S2: that and taking that step. Um, I would urge the 426 00:23:17,410 --> 00:23:21,210 S2: Australian government to encourage its international friends and allies to 427 00:23:21,250 --> 00:23:24,770 S2: follow them down that path. So we've seen the US 428 00:23:24,770 --> 00:23:28,570 S2: and Canada also prescribe the IRGC. Why doesn't the Australian 429 00:23:28,570 --> 00:23:31,250 S2: government join with those two other countries to encourage the 430 00:23:31,250 --> 00:23:35,930 S2: European governments and the UK to similarly ban the IRGC 431 00:23:35,970 --> 00:23:38,090 S2: and listed as a terror organisation? I think that would 432 00:23:38,090 --> 00:23:44,470 S2: be an obvious next step. Let's unite our allies with 433 00:23:44,470 --> 00:23:47,590 S2: the same suite of sanctions, the same suite of, um, 434 00:23:47,630 --> 00:23:51,270 S2: proscriptions against some of these Iranian entities so that they 435 00:23:51,270 --> 00:23:53,750 S2: have no cracks that they can they can fill in 436 00:23:53,750 --> 00:23:57,310 S2: order to worm their way out of, of our sanctions regimes. Um, 437 00:23:57,310 --> 00:23:59,790 S2: I think that's quite a logical step. And the same 438 00:23:59,790 --> 00:24:03,790 S2: with the ability, um, of the, of the IRGC in particular, 439 00:24:03,790 --> 00:24:06,670 S2: to sell oil on the black market. Um, I think 440 00:24:06,710 --> 00:24:11,070 S2: Trump's recently announced tariffs of 25% or something like that on, um, 441 00:24:11,109 --> 00:24:15,590 S2: anybody who buys Iranian oil, probably largely China, um, maybe 442 00:24:15,590 --> 00:24:18,870 S2: India to an extent as well. Um, but I don't 443 00:24:18,869 --> 00:24:21,189 S2: think that's going to have any impact because most of 444 00:24:21,190 --> 00:24:23,470 S2: it's sold on the black market anyway, you know, by 445 00:24:23,510 --> 00:24:27,909 S2: by oil tankers potentially flagged under different countries auspices are not, 446 00:24:27,950 --> 00:24:31,950 S2: you know, tagged as being Iranian product. So we need 447 00:24:31,950 --> 00:24:35,430 S2: to you know, these are being monitored. There are, um, 448 00:24:35,550 --> 00:24:39,010 S2: you know, organizations that monitor the flow of black oil 449 00:24:39,050 --> 00:24:41,729 S2: on the black market. We need to crack down on 450 00:24:41,730 --> 00:24:44,730 S2: those tankers and really stifle the regime's ability to fund 451 00:24:44,730 --> 00:24:48,090 S2: its security forces. Given we know it's bankrupt, given we 452 00:24:48,090 --> 00:24:50,410 S2: know it's you know, with this internet blackout right now, 453 00:24:50,410 --> 00:24:53,970 S2: it's costing the regime millions and millions each day to 454 00:24:54,010 --> 00:24:57,610 S2: maintain this blackout. Can't maintain that forever. It's, you know, 455 00:24:57,650 --> 00:25:00,250 S2: it's broke. So let's stifle them and strangle them as 456 00:25:00,250 --> 00:25:04,770 S2: much as possible and prevent them from, you know, buying weapons, 457 00:25:04,770 --> 00:25:09,050 S2: prevent them from paying their security forces because, you know, 458 00:25:09,090 --> 00:25:11,690 S2: the people who are are being paid by the regime 459 00:25:11,690 --> 00:25:14,410 S2: to fire on innocent protesters are also doing it tough. 460 00:25:14,609 --> 00:25:16,889 S2: They're also struggling to make ends meet. Maybe that's why 461 00:25:16,890 --> 00:25:19,370 S2: they've taken this job in the first place. Let's crack 462 00:25:19,369 --> 00:25:22,210 S2: down on that financing and show the Iranian people that 463 00:25:22,210 --> 00:25:24,889 S2: we support them. Um, Australia is not a major player 464 00:25:24,890 --> 00:25:26,929 S2: here by any means. Um, but I do think it 465 00:25:26,930 --> 00:25:30,130 S2: was quite symbolic that we prescribed the IRGC and kicked 466 00:25:30,130 --> 00:25:31,970 S2: out the Iranian ambassador. So I think we can build 467 00:25:31,970 --> 00:25:35,250 S2: on that momentum and that leadership by taking further steps 468 00:25:35,250 --> 00:25:37,159 S2: and encouraging our allies to join us. 469 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,360 S1: Well, thank you so much, Kylie, for your time. 470 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:44,399 S2: Thanks so much for having the chat. 471 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,840 S6: Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself 472 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,879 S6: and Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Tom 473 00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:02,679 S6: McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our 474 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,840 S6: episodes as soon as they drop, follow the Morning Edition 475 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:10,000 S6: on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Our 476 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:14,280 S6: newsrooms are powered by subscriptions, so to support independent journalism, 477 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:19,760 S6: visit the page or smh.com.au. Subscribe. And to stay up 478 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,199 S6: to date, sign up to our Morning Edition newsletter to 479 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,920 S6: receive a summary of the day's most important news in 480 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,720 S6: your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes. 481 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,159 S6: I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris, thanks for listening.