WEBVTT - Hayden Walker: What to really expect from the weather this Winter

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<v Speaker 1>At the start of every new season. We'd love to

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<v Speaker 1>have a chat to the long range weather forecast Hayden Walker.

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<v Speaker 1>Plenty of you enjoy what we have to what we

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<v Speaker 1>hear from Hayden, and encourage us to keep talking. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to encourage us. We'll continue to talk to.

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<v Speaker 1>Hayden is a very good man and we like what

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<v Speaker 1>he does with weather. He doesn't mince about He says

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<v Speaker 1>it like it is, and his methods are predicting are

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<v Speaker 1>very much different to what we're normally served up with,

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<v Speaker 1>often wrong, not his what we're served up with. He

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<v Speaker 1>monitors the sun solar flares. Historical data goes back well

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<v Speaker 1>over one hundred years, and for the most part we've

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<v Speaker 1>found his predictions to be more reliable as to many

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<v Speaker 1>of his clients. Now, the bomb that's the Bureau as

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<v Speaker 1>saying day and night temperatures will be warmer than average

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<v Speaker 1>across Australia this winter and rain four will be within

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<v Speaker 1>the typical winter range. Let's see what Hayden has to

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<v Speaker 1>say about that. Hayden Walker of Hayden Walker's weather is

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<v Speaker 1>on the line. Are you will yes?

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<v Speaker 2>Lergan yourself very.

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<v Speaker 1>Very mate, love you to talk to you again and

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<v Speaker 1>thank you once again for your time. So I was

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the bureaus seasonal forecast, and again, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they say things will be slightly warmer, and there might

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<v Speaker 1>be a little bit more rain here, but generally within

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<v Speaker 1>the typical winter range. Does that match with what you're thinking?

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<v Speaker 2>Not completely. No, the temperatures will be around the average,

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<v Speaker 2>with a sort of a plus or minus or one

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<v Speaker 2>or two degrees, but certainly sidding. You'll get down to

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<v Speaker 2>the low digits, and when you go out further west,

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<v Speaker 2>it'll be getting into the negative down to negative three,

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<v Speaker 2>and down on the southern tableland and so forth, down

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<v Speaker 2>to negative six and lower. But the fact of the

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<v Speaker 2>matter is that we want to be cautious about the

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<v Speaker 2>chill factor from the wind. The temperatures might be reasonable,

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<v Speaker 2>so to speak, but the chill factor from the wind,

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<v Speaker 2>that's the one that makes it very cold, and that's

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<v Speaker 2>with these frontal systems coming through New South Wales, so

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<v Speaker 2>that will be the chilling effect. So the temperatures I believe, well,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we can probably handle those, and that respect,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll get down to the lower digits for the coast.

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<v Speaker 2>But at the same time, as you go to the

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<v Speaker 2>west in the Camra and the southern table ends and

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<v Speaker 2>so forth, you'll start getting down to the minuses. But

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<v Speaker 2>the crux of the matter will be that chill factor

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<v Speaker 2>from the southwest at least, coming probably from the snow

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<v Speaker 2>and so forth, and that will have an effect on

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<v Speaker 2>the coolness and the coldness right temperatures.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of us still, mate, and you know this,

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<v Speaker 1>we've got the words of Tim Flannery rattling around our heads.

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<v Speaker 1>It will never rain enough to fill a dam. And

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<v Speaker 1>of course it's some time on, but we see the

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<v Speaker 1>dams up around ninety percent, no doubt there'll be a

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<v Speaker 1>point where they're a lot lower than that. But the

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<v Speaker 1>idea that was never going to rain again, to that

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<v Speaker 1>extent is purely fiction. There's no other word fraud. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just fictional. Yet this man continues to be louded in

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<v Speaker 1>the right circles. I'm sure he's done some very good work,

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<v Speaker 1>but just on that prediction, he's failed live, I would

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<v Speaker 1>say my listeners would agree. I'm sure miserably. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you say about rain over winter?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the rainfall over winter, well, there's certainly more for winter.

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<v Speaker 2>There's certainly more for winter, and especially to the eastern

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<v Speaker 2>half of the state. There's some reasonably good to good falls,

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<v Speaker 2>especially to the coast during June, and then when we

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<v Speaker 2>get into July there will be further rain and go

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<v Speaker 2>further further out west. And then also in August, we

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<v Speaker 2>need to be careful. Probably on the cusp of end

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<v Speaker 2>of July beginning of August, there's rainfall into the central

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<v Speaker 2>southern interior and that'll extend onto the coast and there

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<v Speaker 2>may be some further flooding. I know that word flooding.

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<v Speaker 2>We've had enough of it, but at the same time,

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<v Speaker 2>it looks like it's moving to the south, and I'd

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<v Speaker 2>say it along that south coast may be a problem

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<v Speaker 2>in relation to some good to heavy fall. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>look winter rain, there is winter rainfall there. There's some good,

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<v Speaker 2>some good falls in parts, especially to the eastern half,

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<v Speaker 2>ranging from you know, a couple of inches through into

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<v Speaker 2>the heavier falls that I've disgusted with that August period.

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<v Speaker 2>So look, there is rainfall ahead and there will be

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<v Speaker 2>above average for some areas.

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<v Speaker 1>What about those crowd effected areas, Mike, do you see

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<v Speaker 1>them getting some relief.

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<v Speaker 2>On the outskirts. Yes, there is some relief, but way

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<v Speaker 2>further out west there may may be difficult still, but

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<v Speaker 2>you know in July probably the month that it would

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<v Speaker 2>be a better month in relation to rainfall for the

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<v Speaker 2>outer areas and also part and also in August. But yes,

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<v Speaker 2>so there's some some areas there right on the way

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<v Speaker 2>out it's going to be difficult for them.

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<v Speaker 1>We've seen some pretty heavy rain as you well know

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<v Speaker 1>parts of New South Wales along the coast, and we

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<v Speaker 1>shouldn't forget in parts of Queensland as well. Did you

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<v Speaker 1>did you foresee that when you were looking at the

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<v Speaker 1>previous season.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, I did, Yes, Yes, I said there'd be heavy

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<v Speaker 2>falls along the coastline in New South Wales from the

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<v Speaker 2>beginning of the year right through. There'll be situations where

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<v Speaker 2>there be heavy rain on the coast.

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<v Speaker 1>So yes, is that Nina, Nina, because I've acad that

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<v Speaker 1>before and you have a firm view here, please share it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, it's based on sunspot activity in the solar flare.

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<v Speaker 2>So I'll live off the Sun, so that if there's

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<v Speaker 2>a change in the extreme conditions from the Sun, it'll

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<v Speaker 2>change our weather conditions. So the Sun's going through our

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<v Speaker 2>solar maximum, which means the sun becomes alive and therefore

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<v Speaker 2>it has a bearing on our weather and therefore we

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<v Speaker 2>get extreme weather conditions in relation to floods and extreme

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<v Speaker 2>temperatures and so forth heavy rain. So when the sun

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<v Speaker 2>goes back into a dormant stage, it quietens down, we

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<v Speaker 2>get the drought conditions. So the sun currently is at

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<v Speaker 2>a peak condition at our solar maximum, and this is

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<v Speaker 2>why we're receiving so much raining for them, so much extremes.

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<v Speaker 1>When does there what period of time is it a

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<v Speaker 1>pattern where it becomes dormant. How long a way is that?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it runs an eleven year cycle, and therefore we're

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<v Speaker 2>right at the peak now. So over the next two

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<v Speaker 2>the two years, three years will start to slow down,

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<v Speaker 2>but certainly we have further rainfall, you know, at the

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<v Speaker 2>end of the year, and then next year there's further rainfall,

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<v Speaker 2>but not every month, it'll be particular months. So it'll

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<v Speaker 2>start to wane, it'll start to head down into its

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<v Speaker 2>solar minimum, and then we'll get those drought conditions. So

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<v Speaker 2>at the moment we're at the peak and there's further

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<v Speaker 2>there's some further heavy rains next year, so at the beginning,

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<v Speaker 2>so it'll still linger, but it'll start to wane in

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<v Speaker 2>the next say, three or four years. But at that

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<v Speaker 2>stage there are circumstances where it can sort of live,

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<v Speaker 2>not for a short period, and then as it goes

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<v Speaker 2>down goes down, there's a couple of glimpses where it'll

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<v Speaker 2>it'll live. But at the moment, last year and this

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<v Speaker 2>year is the peak. I know.

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<v Speaker 1>It's some questions I ask you each time we chat,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm conscious that we have new listeners hearing perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>you for the first or only the second time. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>The bureau, I think their records go back to the

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen twenties. Yours go back a lot longer than that.

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<v Speaker 1>Your records are your records, and the bureaus are some

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<v Speaker 1>would say homogenized. Just talk to me about the records

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<v Speaker 1>you rely on.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the records I have right back to when Captain

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<v Speaker 2>Cook first arrive and therefore the late seventeen hundreds, and

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<v Speaker 2>it also extends into the eighteen hundred, So I have

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<v Speaker 2>records that go right back to that situation whereby you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we had certain flights, the Hawksbury rows thirty five fifty feet,

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<v Speaker 2>et cetera, et cetera. So we have all those records

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<v Speaker 2>all throughout Australia, and I'm able to go back onto

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<v Speaker 2>those records and look at those records and forecast the

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<v Speaker 2>future based on records based on the past, and I

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<v Speaker 2>tie that in with what's happening on the sun surface. So,

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<v Speaker 2>say twelve months ago, if someone phoned me and said, God,

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<v Speaker 2>I need a forecast for what's happening in twenty twenty five,

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<v Speaker 2>I'd go back to certain records, certain cycles, and I'll

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<v Speaker 2>have a look and I project it forward to twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five. And that's how I come up with my

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<v Speaker 2>forecast in that respect. So that's why I've been able

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<v Speaker 2>to predict a heavy rain and so forth. I'm Monarch

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<v Speaker 2>in the sun every day.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, gotcha. One of my listeners wants me to ask

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<v Speaker 1>you when you think winter begins. Of course we go

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<v Speaker 1>by the first of June, but what do you count

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<v Speaker 1>at the official beginning of winter.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, look at the beginning of winter. It starts to

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<v Speaker 2>shape at the end of May. I believe in relation

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<v Speaker 2>to how the cycles and how the highs and loads

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<v Speaker 2>are situated. So I believe that you know, at the

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<v Speaker 2>end of May, we're starting to look at how it's shaping.

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<v Speaker 2>And then sometimes it's late. It's a late start for winter,

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<v Speaker 2>so therefore it may extend into you know that or

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<v Speaker 2>September period, and that's what I'm looking at for the

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<v Speaker 2>snow scene. I think we discussed that last time. I

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<v Speaker 2>said there'd be a good snow season, there'd be some

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<v Speaker 2>heavy falls. It'll be a late one particularly. It'll probably

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<v Speaker 2>start to really ramp up at the end of the

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<v Speaker 2>June beginning of July, and it'll extend through into September,

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<v Speaker 2>so there'll be some pretty good falls.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, excellent, all right mate. If people want to know

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<v Speaker 1>more about your excellent work, we send them to your website,

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<v Speaker 1>which is Hayden Walker's.

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<v Speaker 2>Weather Okay dot com. I don't know you, so yes,

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<v Speaker 2>you have to get the information there and that anyone

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<v Speaker 2>can bring me anytime and so forth email me at

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<v Speaker 2>the same time.

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<v Speaker 1>Brilliant, Thank you every time. I'd always good to talk here. Great,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks Luke, thank you, Yeah you too, Hayden Walker