1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: The Australian Financial Review. 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:11,639 Speaker 2: Hello, I'm James Thompson, senior chanticleer columnist to the far 3 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 2: Welcome to our weekly news breakdown of all things business, 4 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 2: finance and markets with me today, as always is most 5 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 2: chanta clear colleague. He always keeps the big dogs of 6 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 2: the capital markets on us. 7 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: It's Anthony McDonald. 8 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: How are you Anthony barking mah this week, James rinege fantastic. Well, 9 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 2: this week we mark the fresh record high for the 10 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 2: ASX by answering your ten burning questions about the markets. 11 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 2: We look at how Australia's IVF sector was plunged into 12 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 2: crisis and extract the lessons for markets from the la rights. 13 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 2: All right, Anthony, let's start with the Monash IVF story. 14 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 2: We've talked about some scandals here on the podcast in 15 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:06,199 Speaker 2: recent years, but this one is unbelievable and unbelievably sad 16 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 2: really for those involved. Can you take us through what's 17 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:09,320 Speaker 2: happened here? 18 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, James, this is a bit all time chocker. I 19 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,839 Speaker 3: reckon mon Nash IVF is. The name suggests IVF provided 20 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 3: a number two in Australia about fifteen or twenty percent 21 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 3: market share, so it's a big player. First, it was 22 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 3: revealed by Melbourn's Herald's son a few months ago that 23 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 3: they bungled a treatment in Queensland where they incorrectly put 24 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 3: the embry of one patient into someone else, resulting in 25 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 3: the birth of a child. Mo Nash blamed it on 26 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 3: human error, commissioned an independent investigation into the incident, called 27 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 3: it an isolated incident. And there's a second stuff up, James, 28 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 3: involving a same sex couple in Clayton in Victoria, and 29 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 3: there's another investigation into that incident. It's all pretty stunning stuff. 30 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 3: And James, we don't cover the IVF sector every day. 31 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 3: I mean, it's one that's really grown a lot in 32 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 3: the past twenty years and it's been a big sort 33 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 3: of change to society, I guess in Australia. But it's 34 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 3: life and the stuff. James, you can't afford to get it wrong. 35 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 3: And I check with someone in the known this just 36 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 3: to double check, you know, I mean, does this stuff 37 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 3: sort of happen and we just don't normally hear about it. 38 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 3: I mean, is this part of the the industry of 39 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 3: birth and fertility and everything? We just don't know about it? 40 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 3: And they said no, No, this is this is extremely 41 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 3: rare globally given the protocols in place, and for it 42 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 3: to happen so soon after the first one, it's shocking. 43 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 3: And remember, James, this company, Monash. I yes, it's only 44 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 3: just settled. A case to do with this destruction of 45 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 3: healthy embryos was a class action from twenty twenty one 46 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 3: and it's settled late last year. I think it paid 47 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 3: fifty six million bucks. And in that case it had 48 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 3: seven hundred former patients alleged the clinic used inaccurate genetic 49 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 3: testing and destroyed potentially viable embryos. So look, James, I'm 50 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 3: not even going to disrespect the people involved by talking 51 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 3: about Monash's share price or earningstawgrades or whatever. But yeah, 52 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 3: it's just a shocker. I mean, you wrote about it. 53 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 3: What did you think? 54 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 2: Ah, look, just so poorly handled. And you know, as 55 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 2: you say, you feel for the couple's involved and their 56 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 2: families and everyone around this story. It's really awful, really 57 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 2: and you know that the seriousness of it can't be overstated. 58 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: But yeah, I think what compounds it for me is 59 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 2: my ashes handled this really poorly. You know, it knew 60 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 2: about the first stuff up back in February, but didn't 61 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 2: tell the market till April when the Herald Sun broke 62 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 2: the story. And then when asked by the ASEX, well, 63 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 2: didn't you think that was meaningful enough to tell investors? 64 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 2: They said, oh, into isolated incident, human error, won't happen again. 65 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 2: Then we get this new bit of breaking news. On Tuesday. 66 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 2: I went to the company and said, surely heads have 67 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 2: got a role here, there's got to be changed. I 68 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 2: got the classic response back that management has. 69 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: The full support of them. 70 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 2: Heard that for I guess what happens two days later 71 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 2: that goes to CEO. 72 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: What a shock? I mean? 73 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 2: I said on Tuesday that I didn't think monash ivf 74 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 2: would would survive and it's and I guess that's been 75 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 2: proven right because the CEO has gone. I wonder, though, Anthony, 76 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 2: the stock's been heavily sold off, that there's this is 77 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 2: a pretty fragmented sector. The trust of customers and potential 78 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 2: customers in the monash Iv brand be at rock bottom. 79 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 2: You know, I'd be surprised if there's not more change here. Obviously, 80 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 2: they're going to get the results of this independent review 81 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 2: that they've got to Senior Council doing I mean, there's 82 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 2: just got to be more change at Monash IVF. It's 83 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 2: really hard to see how the brand isn't completely trashed 84 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 2: by these two things, isn't it. 85 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 3: Yeah? Absolutely, And to have one in Queensland and one Victoria. 86 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 3: I mean this is a very sort of localized thing 87 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 3: that two of the three big estates, two of the 88 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 3: three biggest markets. Yeah, that's that's not good, James. 89 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 2: And I think, I think, Anthony, there's an industry wide 90 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 2: issue here. You know, the whole industry will be hurt 91 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: by this. You know, people will be saying, well, if 92 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 2: it can happen at Monash, if one of the leaders 93 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: in the market, maybe it can happen at my IVF provider. 94 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 2: And it's only human to have those thoughts. So I 95 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 2: think the whole industry is going to have a bit 96 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:03,359 Speaker 2: of a cleanup job to do here and needs to 97 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:07,599 Speaker 2: reassure people that their processes are absolutely unimpeachable. 98 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 3: James, We've been fascinated all week by this protests in 99 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 3: Los Angeles over Donald Trump's handling of the deportation of 100 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 3: illegal immigrants. Our new US correspondent Jess Gardner, a friend 101 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 3: of the pod who's been on the pot in the past. Yeah, 102 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 3: she's now on the ground. The pitches coming out of 103 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 3: there have been amazing, and one of our nine colleagues 104 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 3: was even shot by Robert Bullet James. It's a big drama. 105 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:29,920 Speaker 3: Does it have any implications for our markets? 106 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 2: Well, look, I think markets have largely looked past the 107 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 2: sort of drama on the streets, But there is an 108 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 2: important story for markets behind this. I mean, one of 109 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 2: the things that America has really grown strongly through in 110 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 2: the last few years is the growth in population and 111 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 2: the growth in the labor market through legal and illegal immigration. 112 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 2: So what you're seeing now is Trump's clamp down on both, 113 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 2: whether it's through these deportations, much tighter border controls. There's 114 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:04,039 Speaker 2: travel bands on several countries outright, bands, which is quite incredible. 115 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 2: What we're seeing now, though, is that the growth in 116 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 2: the population is starting to slow and the growth in 117 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 2: the labor market starting to slow. The risk there is 118 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 2: if the US economy remains resilient, then wages will start. 119 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: To creep up. 120 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 2: That increases inflationary pressure, possibly keeps the Federal Reserve from 121 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: cutting interest rates, and pushes bond yields up. So there 122 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 2: is an economic story under all this, which is quite important. 123 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 2: You know that there's a possibility that this is quite 124 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 2: a negative supply shock for the US market, and one 125 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,479 Speaker 2: we sort of didn't expect would be a problem. So 126 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: it's worth watching. Obviously, the deportation policy is quite controversial, 127 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 2: but there is a longer term economic impact that I 128 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 2: think most people are missing. 129 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, but James, maybe a I saved the day. 130 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 2: Maybe, yeah, that's true. But look, I mean you remember, 131 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 2: you've got an aging population anyway in America, so bringing 132 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 2: in new workers is really important, as we know in 133 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 2: Australia too, So you just don't want to get into 134 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 2: one of those sort of wage inflation spirals. You're right, 135 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 2: maybe AI will save the day and this will all 136 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 2: be academic, but just just watch this in the next 137 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 2: little while. It's one to watch in the next six 138 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 2: months or so. 139 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 3: And James, while we're recording on Friday, Israel's just launched 140 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 3: air strikes on what it says are nuclear sites in Iran. Yeah, 141 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 3: what's the likely market reaction there? 142 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 2: Well, classic market reaction here, Anthony, oil price straight up. 143 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 2: I think it's up eight percent on Friday morning. Gold 144 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 2: price straight up, markets, equity markets, the ax is dipped 145 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 2: a touch, and the Wall Street futures of for Friday 146 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 2: Night's trade of dipped to touch too. Look, I mean 147 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 2: it's what people in markets call a classic risk off move, 148 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 2: and usually these things fade pretty quickly. The one thing 149 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 2: I'd say, though, Anthony, is watch the oil price. The 150 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: oil price has come down quite sharply in the last 151 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 2: you know, since the start of the year, basically the 152 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 2: last six months or so, and that's actually been quite 153 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 2: an important thing for bringing inflation down around the world. 154 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 2: So a sudden spike in the oil price, if it's maintained, 155 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 2: and that's the big if, that could be something to 156 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 2: watch too. So that is, you know, the inflation. The 157 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 2: inflation story is never quite over till it's over right. 158 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's true. A good point about oil, James. I mean, 159 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 3: that's something that really does flow through to just about everything, 160 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 3: you know, just the cost of transport, transport, cost of 161 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 3: raw materials, all that through the roof. 162 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, Well, Anthony, let's move to our big topic 163 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 2: this week. This week, the ASX two hundred did something 164 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 2: that really seemed impossible about two months ago. It's set 165 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 2: another record high, closing at eight five hundred and ninety 166 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 2: two points on Wednesday, beating its previous records set in 167 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 2: the middle of February. Now, for me, the resident bear, 168 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 2: it's frankly a bit of a strange moment. We're back 169 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 2: at the top in the midst of hu huge global turmoil, 170 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 2: with the Australian economy treading water, and with Australian companies 171 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 2: heading for a third straight year of profits going backwards. 172 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 2: But Anthony, to mark this moment, we've decided to do 173 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 2: something a bit different on the podcast. Our dear listeners 174 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 2: have been inundating us with questions in recent weeks, which 175 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 2: we absolutely love. So we're going to use this new 176 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 2: ASX high as a moment to answer ten of your 177 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 2: top questions on the local market now to help us. 178 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 2: So it's not just our boring voices yabbering at you 179 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 2: the whole time. We've enlisted our producers Alex and Mandy 180 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 2: to read out the questions on your behalf. So let's 181 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 2: get stuck in. Mandy, can you ask the first question? 182 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 3: All right? 183 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 4: Joseph Martis asks, given the general theme that the share 184 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 4: price of the ASX Magnificent one that's CBA, of course, 185 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 4: is being driven above traditional valuation factors by the demand 186 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 4: created by ETFs in turn driven by super fund investment 187 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 4: flow demand. Why is BHP, which is our second biggest 188 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 4: ASA company with a waiting of seven point six percent, 189 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 4: not experiencing a price surge like CBA. 190 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 2: Well, I think, Joseph, there's two answers to that. The 191 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,959 Speaker 2: first one's name is Donald Trump. The second one's name 192 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 2: is China. So what investors are looking for at the 193 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 2: moment is there looking around the world for domestically focused 194 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:27,959 Speaker 2: stories that are sort of hidden from the impact of tariffs. Now, 195 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 2: CBA perfect example. It's basically a bet on the domestic 196 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 2: Australian economy. It's a huge company, it's very liquid, so 197 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 2: you can get in and out nice and easily. BHP's 198 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 2: got a lot of those characteristics, Anthony, but it's still 199 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,319 Speaker 2: so exposed to China. And if you're in the middle 200 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,840 Speaker 2: of a trade war between the US and China that 201 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 2: seems to sort of be on a roller coaster every 202 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 2: second day between war and peace, then you're better to 203 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 2: lessen your exposure to those big China stories, aren't you. 204 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you on that one, James. The 205 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,839 Speaker 3: other thing i'd say about CBA well, it's a big stock. 206 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 3: It's not that liquid like it's got retail shareholders own 207 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 3: just over half the company, and they're very sticky. You know. 208 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 3: They've been selling a little bit as the shap bross 209 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 3: goes up, but not a lot. They don't want to 210 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 3: crystallize these big capital gains for tax purposes. So you've 211 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 3: got a lot of long term shareholders there, whether they're institutional, retail, whatever, 212 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 3: can't afford to sell because of the tax it will crystallize. 213 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 3: So I'd argue the free float is actually about half 214 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 3: the company or so not not the full size. I'm 215 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 3: like BHP, where you've got a lot more trading in 216 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 3: and out every day. 217 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, half of CBA is still a pretty big company 218 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 2: there right now. A good point. All right, let's have 219 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:35,959 Speaker 2: our second question. 220 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 5: Okay, guys, Danny from Victoria. He'd like to know if 221 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 5: you two think CSL is a good long term stock. 222 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 3: One hundred percent. I do, Danny. I'm not making any 223 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 3: buyholder sell call on this, and it's not my place 224 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 3: to give advice and by no means of my own 225 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 3: institutional investor, but if you're asking me if it's a 226 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 3: bloody excellent company still CSL. Then the answer from me 227 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 3: is yes, I mean hasn't lost it shineing in recent 228 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 3: years from a shap price perspective. Absolutely, But I think 229 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 3: what you've got to understand about CSL is three things 230 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 3: a sort of crunched in the past five years, Danny. 231 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 3: So first of all, the industry structure deteriorated, so the 232 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 3: cost of gathering plasma, which is core to their products, 233 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 3: went up for various reasons, started happening in COVID and 234 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 3: its crunch margins. The second thing is that it's just 235 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 3: been poor from a capital allocation perspective. So if you 236 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 3: CSL was one of the shrewdest spenders and investors in 237 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 3: its own business, it went out there paid way too 238 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 3: much money for a big business called V four, which 239 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 3: was US twelve billion dollars and arguably it's big R 240 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 3: and D spend has been spent in the wrong places 241 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 3: in recent years. And the third thing is tariff's Danny, 242 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 3: I mean that's overhanging this company. CSL's on the front 243 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 3: foot saying don't worry too much about the tariffs, but 244 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 3: there is concern that big farmer the farmer industries on 245 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 3: the nose and it's going to get crunched hard. So 246 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 3: those three concerns have really weighed on the share price 247 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:01,320 Speaker 3: quite amazingly in the past four or five years, Danny, 248 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 3: to the point where CSL's gone from one of our best, 249 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 3: shiniest blue chip companies trading at forty times forward earnings 250 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 3: to trading at about half that. Like it's quite an 251 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 3: astounding fall, and instead a lot of that money's gone 252 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 3: to CBA. Now, I would say those three things. CSL's 253 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 3: trying to fix the three of them. The industry structure 254 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 3: is still good, it's working on the capital allocation piece, 255 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 3: and it's trying to prove that the tariffs one going 256 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 3: to be a long term problem. 257 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, well said up. One of my favorite sayings 258 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 2: in markets is from a guy called James Aitken who 259 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 2: says everyone wants to be Warren Buffett until they have 260 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 2: to be like Warren Buffett, and Warren Buffett always likes 261 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 2: to invest for the long term. Right. Well, there's no 262 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 2: company I reckon in Australia that thinks about the long 263 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 2: term as well as CSL does. That they are constantly 264 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,320 Speaker 2: looking ten, fifteen, twenty years out because that's how long 265 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 2: it takes to develop these drugs. They never take the 266 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 2: foot off R and D, and look, I think that's 267 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 2: why over the long term, this is a good stock 268 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 2: to be in. All right, let's hear from our next question. 269 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 4: This is from Sue. She asks, what is the payout 270 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 4: rate of private insurers? Does this explain why the share 271 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 4: prices of IAG and Medibank have done so well in 272 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 4: the past year. 273 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, this has been a hot topic, Sue in the 274 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 2: last little while with Healthscope going under. Are the health 275 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: insurers keeping too much of the pie? 276 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 3: So? 277 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley analyst Andre Stadnik, he's done the numbers for US. 278 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 2: So private health insurers collected twenty nine point four billion 279 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 2: dollars worth of premiums in the twenty twenty four financial 280 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 2: year and they paid out eighty four point two percent 281 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 2: of that, So that's not too far off long term averages. Actually, 282 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 2: so the claims they're holding too much back, well, I 283 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 2: guess pre COVID that the numbers were around eighty seven percent, 284 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 2: So yes, they've increased their profit hold a little bit, 285 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 2: but not too much. Interestingly, Anthony Home and Motor Insurance, 286 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 2: they pay seventy one of their premiums collected back, so 287 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 2: that's a fair bit of profit, isn't it It is? 288 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 3: It is, Yeah, so very important to separate these to 289 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 3: their James like obviously Medy been private private health insurance, 290 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 3: IAG completely different. It's general insurance. So yeah, homes car's 291 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 3: commercial insurance. I mean, why it's done well basically the 292 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 3: nine claims environment. Like I know we've had floods up 293 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 3: in Tare recently, we had the big Lismore ones a 294 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 3: few years ago. But James has been pretty lucky in 295 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 3: terms of the big disasters in the areas where it 296 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 3: has really high exposure Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne basically the biggest areas. 297 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 3: If you get a giant hailstorm that hits some car 298 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 3: yards in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane, you have a really 299 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 3: bad year for IAG. I mean that's that's how it goes. 300 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 3: It's it's actually offloading a lot more risk as well, 301 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 3: and they've kind of discovered some of the magic of reinsurance. 302 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely absolutely. Let's hear from our next question. 303 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 5: All right, Tony from Queensland, and he wants to know 304 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 5: how high do you think Sigma shares will go and 305 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 5: perhaps you could tell us what Sigma does and how 306 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 5: it makes its money. 307 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 3: Sigema's a big wholesale supply into chemists and also owned 308 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 3: a few chemist chains of its own. Now it was 309 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 3: a reasonly small Australian company James until it bought Chemist 310 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 3: Warehouse in a deal that concluded last year. And as 311 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 3: for how much further their shares can run, look, I 312 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 3: don't know, and I think it would be remiss of 313 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 3: me to speculate. But what I will tell you, though, Tony, 314 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 3: is that the more we hear about Chemist's Warehouse, the 315 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 3: more the market gets to learn about them, since they've 316 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 3: listed via Sigma Healthcare. And the more that we learn 317 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 3: about how Chemist wa House thinks about the basics right, 318 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 3: just the real basics of retail price, product promotion place, 319 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 3: the more I think that we understand this is a 320 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 3: really impressive story. There's plenty of growth in this thing 321 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 3: if it doesn't get too big to manage, and they 322 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 3: can keep it all together. This thing's got growth in 323 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 3: Australia in each of its states. It's got growth off 324 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 3: sure that I mean they're pushing into a bunch of 325 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 3: markets off Sure James only in small ways, but often 326 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 3: with JV partners and stuff like New Zealand, Island, China Jubai. 327 00:16:57,720 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 3: And that's interesting to me because it comes as where 328 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 3: seeing this real retreat from offshore by a bunch of 329 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 3: Australian businesses. Only this week we saw Quantas, for example, 330 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 3: shut down or say it's about to shut down. It's 331 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 3: Jetstar International business that's run out of Singapore. Now, James, 332 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 3: I think this Chemist Warehouse, which we kind of think 333 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 3: of Sigma as chemists warehouse now because that's ninety percent 334 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 3: of the business. Basically, it's making more money than we 335 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:27,159 Speaker 3: expected when it got put into Sigma. Sigma was the 336 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 3: wholesale supplier. It turns out putting a wholesale supplier into 337 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 3: the actual retail operations that's churning out more profit too. 338 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 3: Who would have thought, James vertical integrations a great business 339 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 3: move for them? So I think this in terms of 340 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 3: the share price, it's hideously expensive. Sigma shares are three 341 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 3: dollars plus. You could buy them for less than a 342 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 3: dollar for most of the past twenty years. It's trading 343 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 3: more than fifty times forward profits. It's very expensive. But 344 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 3: I mean this Chemist Warehouse is just an absolute machine. Yeah. 345 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 2: Look, I mean it's it's up one hundred and eighty 346 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 2: percent in the last in the last year, so that's 347 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 2: how much further can it run? I think I think 348 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 2: it's a legitimate question, actually, Tony's asking. I reckon there's 349 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 2: two factors that I'd want to watch. I want to 350 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 2: be certain that Mario Verocki, the CEO of the Chemists 351 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 2: Warehouse business, and the Gants brothers who co founded that 352 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,679 Speaker 2: with him. I want to be certain they're sticking around. 353 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,160 Speaker 2: Those guys are the key that they are the magicians. 354 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 2: They've got the secret source in bottles out the back 355 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 2: of the Chemist's Warehouse and I want them. I want 356 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 2: them there to smother across this business for many years 357 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 2: to come. And I guess I want the U. Yeah 358 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 2: to your point about Australian businesses going offshore, I'd want 359 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 2: a bit more evidence that this model works in other places. 360 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 2: You know, it sounds pretty logical, right, everyone likes cheap medicines, 361 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 2: aging populations everywhere. This will work everywhere. But there's something 362 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 2: quite uniquely Australian about Chemist's Warehouse too. You know, it's 363 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 2: not on an episode of Bluey for nothing. It's a 364 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,360 Speaker 2: very Australian beast. And I just want to I want 365 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 2: to learn a bit more about how that overseas expansions going. 366 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 2: Let's have the next question. 367 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 4: Guy, what wants to know have real estate investment trusts 368 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 4: had their run or with interest rates dropping, is their 369 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 4: border come. 370 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 2: I think interest rates are really important here, guy, they're 371 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 2: coming back. That'll help the real estate investment trusts. But 372 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 2: I reckon the bigger thing that real estate investment trusts 373 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 2: have in their favor is the three maybe four great 374 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 2: property shortages of Australia. We all know about the housing one, 375 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 2: but Anthony, we're not building many new office towers at 376 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 2: the moment, and maybe that's maybe that's a good thing, 377 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 2: but we're certainly not building them in the prime locations 378 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 2: in Sydney and Melbourne at the rate we were. We're 379 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:52,439 Speaker 2: not building many more supermarkets. There's hardly any new retail space, 380 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 2: not many new greenfield shopping centers, so not many brand 381 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 2: new shopping centers. There are extensions to existing shopping centers, 382 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 2: but not many new shopping centers. And we're not building 383 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 2: a whole lot more commercial property either. So there's a 384 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 2: chance that if the economy can continue to grow even 385 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 2: at the sort of relatively poor pace that it's been 386 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 2: growing at, in recent years, we get to this point 387 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 2: where we've got a shortage of good retail property, and 388 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 2: if you can find those real estate investment trusts that 389 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 2: have got the right properties in the right places, I 390 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 2: think those existing properties become even more valuable commodities, don't they. 391 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, James. I mean the past five years 392 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 3: we've seen an absolute rebasing higher in terms of what 393 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 3: it costs to build a property. So anything that you've 394 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 3: already got in the ground is much more valuable than 395 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 3: it was in the past, just because the cost to 396 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,119 Speaker 3: rebuild it's so expensive. And Guy, I can tell you 397 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 3: there's a bunch of institutional investors find managers who are 398 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 3: trying to pick the bottom in terms of the price 399 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 3: of the rates. I mean, they're still interested in them. 400 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 3: You've got to be careful. We all know what happens 401 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 3: to people that pick bottoms, James. But there's a lot 402 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:02,479 Speaker 3: of sectors watching trading. A discount still five percent plus 403 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 3: across the ASEX three hundred reit sector. That's more than 404 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 3: it is normally, so they reckon that. There's fire. Managers 405 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 3: are telling us they're still value in Australian real estate. 406 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 3: They're just trying to pick the right moment. 407 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. 408 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 2: Yes, I'm still getting over your picking bottoms comment. Sorry, Anthony, 409 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 2: but let's move on to the next question while we can. 410 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 5: All right, we're into the back half. Patrick from Beautiful 411 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 5: Victoria asks Trump's election caused a slump in green energy stocks, 412 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 5: following the principle that you buy stocks that are out 413 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 5: of favor against longer term themes. Is the sector not 414 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 5: a massive bargain at present? 415 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 1: That's a great question, it is. 416 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 3: I do love a contrarian. Yesh, me too, And yeah, 417 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 3: absolutely it can be a great time to invest. But you 418 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 3: have to ask, is a slump cyclical of structural Has 419 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 3: Trump throwing the renewable tracks so far off path the 420 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 3: industry will not exist the extent we thought it would. 421 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,120 Speaker 3: I'd say probably not to that, James. Sure, it's not 422 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 3: happening as quickly as maybe was expected a couple of 423 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,919 Speaker 3: years ago. You know, the energy transition is slower as 424 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 3: we talked about all the time this pod. They are 425 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 3: a stack of renewables though in the grid, James, is 426 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 3: a stack plan for the grid. We're not in the 427 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 3: business of turning down energy at the moment. The world 428 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 3: is energy hungry, and it's going to get more energy 429 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 3: hungry as the AI and electrification of everything takes place. 430 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 3: But the problem though, Patrick, and if you're thinking about Australia, 431 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 3: there's not many green energy stocks. I mean, the biggest 432 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 3: renewables developers here ag on Origin Energy, and I'm not 433 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 3: sure you'd call them green energy stocks. They're huge polluters. 434 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 3: You know, they own the big coal fired power plants. 435 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 3: And I really like Origin. I like the way it 436 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 3: goes about it. I like I think there's got some 437 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 3: very valuable assets and I'm pleased to see it's still 438 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 3: listed on the AX. But I wouldn't consider it a 439 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 3: green energy exposure though. I mean, we used to have 440 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 3: a few wind energy developers Infigen and Tilt. They both 441 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 3: got snapped up. There was a hydro developer, gen X, 442 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,919 Speaker 3: got pretty crappy. It was bought last year. There's not 443 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 3: a lot out there for you, Patrick, unless look offshore. 444 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 2: Well, and I think that goes to the story here, 445 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 2: isn't it. It doesn't think you need lots of patient capital, 446 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 2: which the public markets sometimes aren't great at, and so 447 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 2: a lot of these assets have ended up in private hands. 448 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 2: But look, I'm with you, you know you think about Victoria. 449 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 2: At the moment, Anthony, our big coal generator is sort 450 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 2: of on the blink at the moment. We've used in 451 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 2: a couple of days thirteen percent of our budgeted gas 452 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 2: for the whole year just to keep our houses warm 453 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 2: and the lights on. So you know, I think that 454 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 2: says that we need to get this renewable and we 455 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 2: probably need more gas, but we need the renewable energy 456 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 2: to really come in and help bridge that gap. So 457 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 2: I like your approach here, Patrick. I guess it's a 458 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 2: bit like that question about the real estate investment trusts 459 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 2: picking the bottom. Here is the tough bit, because I 460 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 2: mean I was reading this week. I think Trump's new 461 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:56,959 Speaker 2: energy secretary is saying quite openly we're favoring fossil fuels 462 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 2: over renewables, and that sort of that sentiment can hang 463 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 2: over a sector for a long time. So let's just 464 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 2: see how Let's see where that gets to. Let's take 465 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 2: the next question. 466 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 4: Well, sticking with the American scen Francis from New South 467 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 4: Wales asks why isn't the US choosing Australia's rare earths. 468 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 2: Well, that's a good question, Francis. The issue is that 469 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 2: even Australia's rare earth's at the moment largely need to 470 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 2: get processed in China. China is the home to the 471 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,919 Speaker 2: vast majority of processing capacity in the world for rare earths, 472 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,879 Speaker 2: and so even if America I wanted to grab our 473 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 2: critical minerals, which they clearly do, and we've got plenty 474 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 2: of rare earths and critical minerals to offer, we still 475 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 2: need to figure out the way to process them. We're 476 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,680 Speaker 2: trying to work through that is it economic or cost 477 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 2: effective to do it in Australia. But most of our 478 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 2: listed rare earths players listed on the Stock Exchange is 479 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 2: still pretty junior in size and scope, and they're still 480 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 2: trying to figure this processing question out themselves. So, Anthony, 481 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,119 Speaker 2: I think where we're part of the solution for the 482 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:06,360 Speaker 2: US rare earth's question, but we're not quite there yet, right. 483 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tricky one because there's so many different types 484 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 3: of rare earths and the processing required. Like you said, James, 485 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 3: it's not a scale industry for us, so it's really 486 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 3: hard for us to build up a big rare earth's 487 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,880 Speaker 3: industry like we've done with iron ore and coal, which 488 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 3: are these big bull commodities. Everything happens in big tarnages 489 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 3: and we build the big infrastructure and we get this 490 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 3: great sort of motor around it. So yeah, unfortunately we're 491 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 3: just not there yet and I'm not sure we'll ever 492 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:34,440 Speaker 3: get there either. 493 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 5: Okay, Andrew for Melbourne has an AI focused question and 494 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 5: he asks, in an AI era, what do business operating 495 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 5: models look like? 496 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, tough one, A big, good question. Let's think about 497 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 3: this two ways, James. I'm not sure if Andrew wants 498 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 3: us to think about the AI businesses themselves or how 499 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 3: businesses use AI and what businesses look like. So let's 500 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 3: just go with the AI businesses themselves to start with 501 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 3: the ones that are we built to capitalize on AI. 502 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 3: I mean, in Australia, that's going to be the uses 503 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 3: of AI. It's the software, you know, it's the rostering 504 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,640 Speaker 3: systems or paperwork for age care providers. It's the automating 505 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 3: cement deliveries for borrel. I mean, that stuff's happening. So 506 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 3: it's these applications of AI that's where Australia is playing 507 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 3: in this big AI world. We're not big enough, we're 508 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 3: not rich enough to be building the actual infrastructure. I 509 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,600 Speaker 3: mean that's coming out of the US. The big tech companies, 510 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 3: so our startups and everything are looking at building software 511 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 3: that uses AI. And that's okay, that's where Australia's found 512 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 3: its placed in the world. We've done that B to 513 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 3: B B two C software quite well. I mean it's 514 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 3: a sector that's kind of risen from the ground in 515 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 3: the past fifteen or twenty years with your Elastian's, your Canvas, 516 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,679 Speaker 3: your wives Tech and heaps of other unicorns now behind them. 517 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 3: We're not building the large language models to knock off 518 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 3: Google's geminile open ais chat Jbitt James. I think that's 519 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 3: that's just the reality. Now the other side, if you 520 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 3: think about what an ordinary business's business model will look 521 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,880 Speaker 3: like in the AI era, I mean, this is where 522 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 3: we get into the hollowing out of the workforce James. 523 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 3: I mean we've already seen with the generative AI. We're 524 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 3: seeing some of the hollowing out of the content sort 525 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 3: of jobs. Now, for example, advertising agencies off shore have 526 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 3: been slashing jobs. All the content production stuff is really 527 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 3: been cut. It's been sped up by the AI that's 528 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,040 Speaker 3: able to do what people could do. You know, you 529 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 3: can debate either way, whether it's as good and if 530 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 3: you're looking also at a lot of the professional services firms, 531 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 3: I hear about this all the time, where you can 532 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 3: do five days work in five hours now with AI, 533 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,440 Speaker 3: so tax advice on a complicated transaction. You used to 534 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 3: spend a whole week on it in the past to 535 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 3: think about similar situations. Now they feed it through the AI. 536 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,959 Speaker 3: AI will tell them which presints to look at and 537 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,959 Speaker 3: it gets much quicker. So I guess that what that means, James, 538 00:27:54,720 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 3: is smaller sort of back office functions in businesses themselves elves. 539 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 3: The way everyone's thinking about is you're kind of going 540 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 3: to have the bosses that run the business is still 541 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 3: you're going to have the people that serve the people 542 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 3: at the bottom and in between. A lot of stuff 543 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 3: is going to be done by AI. Whether that works 544 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 3: or not, I'm not sure, James, because I still look 545 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 3: at the people that are telling us about this stuff. 546 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 3: They're the AI vendors themselves, and all of this has 547 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,400 Speaker 3: been dealt out in the physical world. So the way 548 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 3: they get their message through to Matt Common or Vicky 549 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,280 Speaker 3: Brady or whoever, is to fly them over to the 550 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 3: US and tell them face to face about how the 551 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,920 Speaker 3: AI works, So I'm still waiting to see that that 552 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 3: flick over into the virtual world as well. 553 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, good point. No, I think you're right. I think 554 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 2: lots of we'll still need management, We'll still need salespeople 555 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 2: will still need customer service. It's that back office that's 556 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 2: going to really change. And I think companies will have 557 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 2: their own AI customized to their business, so it's the 558 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 2: most effective use of your own data and away we go. 559 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 2: I think we've got another AI related question too. 560 00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 1: Though, Yeah, we have. 561 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 4: From Melanie sit asks Australia's AI discourse often focuses on 562 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 4: job losses and automation risk, but how can we frame 563 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 4: the national conversation to address how AI will change jobs, 564 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 4: reshape career paths, and elevate the importance of distinctly human 565 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 4: capabilities like contextual judgment, empathy, storytelling and ethics. What role 566 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 4: should education and policy play in preparing our workforce for 567 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 4: this era of human plus machine collaboration and are we 568 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 4: at risk of underinvesting in those very capabilities that will 569 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 4: unlock AI's full productivity potential. 570 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 2: Well, in honor of Q and A, which has now 571 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 2: been axed by the ABC, we could almost take that 572 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,479 Speaker 2: as a comment, Melanie. I think it's a really good point. 573 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 2: What role should education and policy play? I would say 574 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 2: some role. At the moment, it's playing zero role. I mean, 575 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 2: I think we talked last week about, you know, is 576 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 2: there education from what I can see, is very worried 577 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 2: about the use of AI plagiary Are kids really learning 578 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 2: with it? Maybe we need to flip that on its 579 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 2: head and start saying, right, we need to prepare kids 580 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 2: to be able to get the most out of these 581 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 2: AI tools and be AI ninja's in the classroom. I'm 582 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 2: not seeing that shift at the moment, and I'm not 583 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 2: seeing a hell of a lot of policy coming out 584 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 2: of state, local, and the federal government about how to 585 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 2: prepare the workforce, how to prepare the community. I really 586 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 2: hope this is just around the corner. You know, Anthony 587 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 2: Albanezi is now having a productivity round table, the idea 588 00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 2: of which you know, I love that phrase, Anthony. This 589 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 2: is a meeting that should have been an email. I 590 00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 2: don't know what that. I don't know what a roundtable, 591 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 2: how a round table fits into that. But we've got 592 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 2: to get something out of this, and I think it's 593 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 2: got to include how is business government coming together to 594 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 2: figure out the sort of path forward through AI. 595 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 3: I think we'll get there, James. We always do. It 596 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 3: just takes time. And as a matter of how much 597 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 3: times like the energy transition, right, go back to the 598 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 3: summits we had five years ago, seven years ago, as 599 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 3: energy transitions is never going to happen, and then a 600 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 3: year or two ago it's sort of clicks. It's like, 601 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 3: all right, well, capitals coming to the sector. It is happening. 602 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,000 Speaker 3: It is happening. But you know, we do get around it. 603 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:17,360 Speaker 3: It's just we always take a while to make the change. 604 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right. I mean we should. We 605 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 2: should always remain pretty bullish about the world's ability to 606 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 2: muddle through stuff. We're good muddlers in the end. My 607 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 2: only concern is this is coming so quickly. We might not. 608 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 2: We don't have that much time to muddle so anyway, 609 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 2: let's hope we need to get onto it now. 610 00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 5: Okay, we've come to the end of our Q and 611 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 5: a experiment. Question ten of ten is from Guy Pinder, 612 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 5: and he asks, I've been investing in equity for about 613 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,240 Speaker 5: eight years, and one constant I've noticed is the surprisingly 614 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 5: resilient optimism and bullish sentiment that pervades the market. Do 615 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 5: you think as individual investors, our natural risk tolerance and 616 00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 5: bullishness generally fall short of the market's brought out resilience, 617 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 5: and that perhaps we need to become a bit more 618 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 5: comfortable with discomfort if we want to achieve decent long 619 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:07,920 Speaker 5: term returns. 620 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 2: I'm feeling personally attacked here, Anthony. 621 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, James, I think guys worked out something in 622 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 3: eight years that's equally been staring me in the face, 623 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 3: and this tonguement taken me longer to get my head around. 624 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 3: It's the market, James. Over low long run, it goes up. Now, 625 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 3: your average investment over long run increases in value, which 626 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 3: means you do better and make more money by being 627 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 3: bullish than bever ish. Now, James, the past eight years, guy, 628 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 3: they've been they've been exceptional. Okay, So the AX is 629 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 3: averaged ten point six percent a year returns. So if 630 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,040 Speaker 3: you add the capital plus the dividends ten point six 631 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 3: percent a year over the past eight years. The guy's 632 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:45,920 Speaker 3: talking about the S and P five hundred. Now, that's 633 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 3: the big market in the US, the one that sends 634 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,880 Speaker 3: the sentiment for markets globally that's been even stronger fourteen 635 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:55,520 Speaker 3: percent a year over the past eight years. Now that 636 00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 3: that's phenomenal, But even if you look at the thirty numbers, James, 637 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,000 Speaker 3: there still very strong. ASEX does about ten percent a 638 00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,440 Speaker 3: year over thirty years, and in the US it's ten 639 00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 3: point six percent a year, so they're very very strong numbers. Now, 640 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,600 Speaker 3: what this is a reminder of, James, is despite all 641 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 3: the uncertainty, and every year starts with more uncertainy than 642 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,560 Speaker 3: the last. You can be guaranteed in January and February 643 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 3: every year people are going to be telling us, so 644 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 3: it's never been more uncertain. They're so much to worry 645 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 3: about economy, rates, inflation, GDP, jobs, market, geo politics, China, 646 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:32,240 Speaker 3: energy transition, Iran today AI, whatever we're talking about. There's 647 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 3: lots of uncertainty, and yet the market investors, they have 648 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,440 Speaker 3: to look through it. Why James is to get that 649 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:43,719 Speaker 3: ten percent. History shows that, on average the market goes up, 650 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,080 Speaker 3: and I think once you do appreciate that, it takes 651 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 3: a bit of a mind shift and you come to 652 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 3: realize that it pays to look for the good in things, James. 653 00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:54,640 Speaker 3: The good in a company's announcement, the good in the 654 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,520 Speaker 3: earnings result, the good in the bits of its new 655 00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 3: business strategy, not just the bad. Now as journalists, James, 656 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 3: this is a quantum leap, and I'm not sure we're 657 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 3: ever going to be able to make it. And that's 658 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 3: why I say be careful asking us for stock tips, 659 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,400 Speaker 3: because we see the bard in things. And that's just 660 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,919 Speaker 3: inherently because we sit here every day of the week 661 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,719 Speaker 3: reading these companies announcements and they are shoving junk down 662 00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,560 Speaker 3: our throats, telling us that everything is good when it 663 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 3: isn't necessarily right. So it makes us cynical, and it's 664 00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 3: our sort of role in this whole theater of the 665 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 3: markets to be cynical and try and think about, you know, 666 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,759 Speaker 3: the things that could go wrong and the risks. But 667 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,239 Speaker 3: to come back to guys question, I agree, you do 668 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 3: need to get comfortable with the discomfort to achieve decent 669 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:43,320 Speaker 3: long term returns in equity markets. That's the whole game. 670 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,719 Speaker 2: I would say, guy, you're absolutely right. You know, the 671 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 2: resilience of the market and thebility for investors want things 672 00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,440 Speaker 2: to go up right, That's why they're in markets. That's 673 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 2: why they take risks. They want things to go up. 674 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:57,759 Speaker 2: And for the last thirty years, as Anthony said, they 675 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 2: generally have now I would say, to be mister beer 676 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,720 Speaker 2: as usual, the last thirty years have been pretty bloody 677 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 2: good for the world, globalization, low interest rates. We've had 678 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,319 Speaker 2: a few big moments of panic, but you know, we've 679 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:15,799 Speaker 2: the pandemics GFC. But you know we haven't had a 680 00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,000 Speaker 2: we haven't had a world war. It hasn't been the 681 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 2: nineteen thirties and forties if you think of a period 682 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,480 Speaker 2: of tumult like that. So you know, I guess I 683 00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,239 Speaker 2: would say, guy, remember a balanced diet. You need the 684 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 2: balls and the bears. You need your vegetables and you 685 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 2: need your desserts. So as long as you're keeping both 686 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,480 Speaker 2: cases in mind, and you'll get both cases here on 687 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,319 Speaker 2: the chant Clear podcast, you'll be totally fine. But what 688 00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 2: a great question to finish with, Anthony. We'll better take 689 00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,080 Speaker 2: a break now, we'll come back and look at what's 690 00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 2: out next week. There's a very important piece of Australian 691 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,680 Speaker 2: economic data that the RBA will be looking closely. 692 00:35:49,960 --> 00:36:04,280 Speaker 1: Back in a second. 693 00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 2: Welcome back if you want to know more about what 694 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,080 Speaker 2: we're talking about today, and a whole lot more AFI 695 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 2: Subscribers can sign up to the Chanticleer newsletter at join 696 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 2: dot afi dot com forward slash chant Clear. Every Saturday morning, 697 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,920 Speaker 2: the newsletter pulls together the best Shanta Clear columns from 698 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,400 Speaker 2: the week and delivers them straight to your inbox. All right, Anthony, 699 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:28,480 Speaker 2: we're back climbing the summit again. On Tuesday, the ESG 700 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,000 Speaker 2: summit in Sydney. Now we had a good question about 701 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:32,359 Speaker 2: green energy. Is there are going to be a lot 702 00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,760 Speaker 2: of green energy on the menu on Tuesday? 703 00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:36,759 Speaker 3: There will be, but hopefully not too much changed. And 704 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,919 Speaker 3: he always need to remember that ESG is about much 705 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,640 Speaker 3: more than just decarbonization, and I think the agenda this 706 00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 3: year reflects that. So looking forward to hearing a lot 707 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:49,120 Speaker 3: more about governance, sustainability, sort of more broadly than just 708 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:50,760 Speaker 3: the E in ESG. 709 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, the good stories are always in the G, I 710 00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,480 Speaker 2: Reckon On Thursday, we get a really important read on 711 00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 2: the Australian economy employment data. The RBA will be watching 712 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:03,200 Speaker 2: this really closely. As we've said, a little they like 713 00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 2: a little bit of weakening of the labor market. I 714 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,960 Speaker 2: think just a little bit would seal the deal for 715 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,680 Speaker 2: more rate cuts. But Anthony, the case for July rate 716 00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,600 Speaker 2: cuts seems to be getting stronger, doesn't. 717 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,279 Speaker 3: It It does, James, all right. 718 00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:18,000 Speaker 2: And then Friday morning, our time, speaking of rate cuts, 719 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,560 Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve in the US will make its latest 720 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,279 Speaker 2: interest rate decision. I think the consensus here, Anthony is 721 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,360 Speaker 2: no cut, still too early with all the tariff stuff, 722 00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,760 Speaker 2: but the September cut is looking more and more likely 723 00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,520 Speaker 2: after a good inflation print this week or a soft 724 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:35,320 Speaker 2: inflation print. 725 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, hearing lots about September coming out of the US, James. 726 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:42,319 Speaker 3: That seems to be where the whole crowd is crowding around. 727 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,400 Speaker 2: Absolutely all right, Well, thank you so much for all 728 00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,239 Speaker 2: the great questions that you've sent in. If you've got 729 00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,400 Speaker 2: a question that you'd want to get to us, please 730 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,920 Speaker 2: email us at chanticleer at afi dot com. You can 731 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,560 Speaker 2: send a question in audio form by recording a voice 732 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,120 Speaker 2: memo on your phone, including a naming where you're from, 733 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,800 Speaker 2: and emailing it to us at that address, And of course, 734 00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:05,080 Speaker 2: the widget on chanticleer Articles at afar dot com is 735 00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,719 Speaker 2: another place that you can register your questions. We've had 736 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,800 Speaker 2: great fun going through all the questions today, some really 737 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,200 Speaker 2: good tough questions for us. I thought, Anthony really our 738 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:15,680 Speaker 2: listeners are all over it, aren't they. 739 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:17,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I just want to reiterate that thanks to everyone 740 00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,239 Speaker 3: that's sending questions. We really ramped up the call for 741 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,920 Speaker 3: questions on our columns a month or two ago now, 742 00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 3: James and we haven't covered off as many of them 743 00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:27,239 Speaker 3: as we could have, but don't worry, James and I've 744 00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,640 Speaker 3: been reading them all and it's great to hear what 745 00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,520 Speaker 3: people are interested in and the thoughts that they have 746 00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:37,720 Speaker 3: after our columns. It definitely gives us something to work towards. 747 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:38,080 Speaker 2: Yeah. 748 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,680 Speaker 3: Absolutely so we'll be back to regular programming next week, 749 00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:42,680 Speaker 3: but keep those questions streaming. 750 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,280 Speaker 1: In Fantastic or on Anthony. 751 00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,960 Speaker 2: Another big week looms, Enjoy the ESG summit and we'll 752 00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,840 Speaker 2: be back looking at another week of drama and no 753 00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:51,719 Speaker 2: doubt next week. 754 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you, James, have a good weekend, terrific. 755 00:38:54,239 --> 00:39:00,120 Speaker 2: See you then, Thanks everybody, Talk to you soon. If 756 00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:01,919 Speaker 2: you like the podcast and you want to hear more, 757 00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,480 Speaker 2: consider sharing or giving the podcast a review, as it 758 00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,440 Speaker 2: helps other listeners find us, and don't forget to follow 759 00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,600 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts. At the Financial Review, we 760 00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:14,719 Speaker 2: investigate the big stories about markets, business and power. For more, 761 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,319 Speaker 2: go to afi dot com and you can subscribe to 762 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,839 Speaker 2: the Financial Review. The Daily Habit of Successful People at 763 00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:25,040 Speaker 2: AFAR dot com slash subscribe trantically was hosted by me 764 00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:28,359 Speaker 2: James Thompson and Anthony McDonald and it was produced by 765 00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,799 Speaker 2: Alex Gou with assistance from Mandy Cohen. A Theme is 766 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,320 Speaker 2: by Alex Gou. Head of Premium content is Fiona Buffini 767 00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:44,440 Speaker 1: The Australian Financial Review