WEBVTT - The Week In Canberra with Dennis Shanahan

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<v Speaker 1>Prime and Stuff the Labor Party Central Politics with Dennis Shanahan.

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<v Speaker 2>Each weekend. I'm honored, delighted to talk to Dennis Shanahan,

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<v Speaker 2>national editor of the Australian newspaper, who I'm delighted to

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<v Speaker 2>say is on the line. Dennis. Maybe unkindly, it was

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<v Speaker 2>suggested a week or two back that maybe even longer

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<v Speaker 2>than that, that many Canberrans when they get given the

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<v Speaker 2>chance of a long weekend head to New South Wales,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly the South coast. I know there are times where

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<v Speaker 2>you end up on the South coast of New South Wales,

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<v Speaker 2>but I'm almost intrigued to know how things are in

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<v Speaker 2>Canberra this morning. So tell me where you are and

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<v Speaker 2>tell me what it's like.

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<v Speaker 1>My friend, Well, I am in Canberra. I do go

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<v Speaker 1>to the coast, Yes, to the Canberra beach right, Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>and it is winter right, I'm looking out the wind blowing,

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<v Speaker 1>there is rain and the last few leaves are falling.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, I'm a great advocate of camera. I

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<v Speaker 1>love camera, but I have to admit when it's twinter yes.

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<v Speaker 2>Indeed. Now, both sides of politics seem divided over this

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<v Speaker 2>proposal to include texts on unrealized capital gains for some

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<v Speaker 2>super innovation funds, with Jim Chalmers wanting to forge your

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<v Speaker 2>head with what's becoming an increasingly difficult political position. Now

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<v Speaker 2>through the week, mate, I saw the Prime Minister saying, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, this has been out in about for two years.

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<v Speaker 2>But the problem for the Prime Minister is he couldn't

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<v Speaker 2>get it across the line. Now it's likely to be

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<v Speaker 2>across the line somehow. So it is a real thing.

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<v Speaker 2>So excuse our interest in it, but taxing people on

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<v Speaker 2>gains that haven't realized. And I don't care what the

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<v Speaker 2>government says in defense of this. Once they do it

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<v Speaker 2>in one asset class, who's to say, and the Greens,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, they're going to have to support the government

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<v Speaker 2>to get this through and they want negative gearing. Look,

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<v Speaker 2>who's to say that the Greens won't say, right out,

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<v Speaker 2>let's do this on another asset class, like your second

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<v Speaker 2>or third rental property. This has got absolute hair or labor,

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't it.

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<v Speaker 1>It does. It's a big brown dog. And the thing

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<v Speaker 1>is what we've got here is something that, as the

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister has said, has been around for two years.

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<v Speaker 1>This was around long before the election. The government got

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<v Speaker 1>a huge mandate or a huge majority. In any case,

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<v Speaker 1>at the election they control the Upper House with no

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<v Speaker 1>problem at all. They can argue, as Jim Charms is arguing,

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<v Speaker 1>we've had it out there all the time on these

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<v Speaker 1>unrealized tax on superannuation also not indexed by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>and only on self managed funds with totals of more

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<v Speaker 1>than three million. But that, as you're saying, the principle

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<v Speaker 1>involved here of taxing something on unrealized gains, that is,

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<v Speaker 1>you pay tax on paper games. So someone says, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>your property is now worth four million more, You've got

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<v Speaker 1>to pay tax on four million although you haven't got it.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to end up sending selling the property to

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<v Speaker 1>get the money to pay the tax on the earnings

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<v Speaker 1>you haven't earned. Really is a nonsense. But what we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing politically here, I think is a lot of confusion

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<v Speaker 1>and a lack of people to grasp reality. Now. When

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<v Speaker 1>the Prime Minister said this week I'm prepared to deal

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<v Speaker 1>with the Coalition on a range of issues, including superannuation,

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<v Speaker 1>he meant it because he knows that the reason that

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<v Speaker 1>this superannuation tax in any form hasn't gone through in

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<v Speaker 1>the past two years is because the government didn't control

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<v Speaker 1>the Senate. And guess what, they still don't control the Senate,

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<v Speaker 1>so this still has to be negotiated. People have were saying, oh, look,

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<v Speaker 1>you know they've got this huge majority, just stand aside

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<v Speaker 1>let them. No, it doesn't work like that. The Senate

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<v Speaker 1>is still there as a break on the House of Representatives,

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<v Speaker 1>and Anthony Albanez he knows this. He also is in

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<v Speaker 1>his second term starting to say, well, you know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to have to get some things through here, and

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<v Speaker 1>he is signaled to the Coalition, I'm prepared to work

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<v Speaker 1>with you, and he actually said rather than the Grooms,

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<v Speaker 1>he doesn't want to do with the Greens. Now. What

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<v Speaker 1>we then had was Jim Charmers coming out the next

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<v Speaker 1>day and say, oh, no, I don't think the coalition's

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<v Speaker 1>fair income. Because Ted O'Brien, the shadow Treasurer, had said

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<v Speaker 1>he was prepared to negotiate on this. So then the

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<v Speaker 1>treasurer said, no, not faired income. Then a whole lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people in the coalition came out and said no,

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<v Speaker 1>we're not going to cop this either. So we've got

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<v Speaker 1>Jim Charmers and a whole lot of people on the

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<v Speaker 1>coalition side saying no, no deal. And then the Coalition

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<v Speaker 1>came down said no, our position is again, don't realize

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<v Speaker 1>capital games tax and against and for indexation. So the

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<v Speaker 1>positions are clear. What we don't have is somebody saying, well,

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<v Speaker 1>hold on just a minute. If this has to pass

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<v Speaker 1>and there is a mandate to pass it, there's no

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<v Speaker 1>doubt about it. It is better. And this is what

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<v Speaker 1>former governors of the Reserve Bank, former tax secretaries of

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<v Speaker 1>the Treasury Department, in fact still huge liberal donors and

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<v Speaker 1>former liberal politicians all saying to the coalition pass it

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<v Speaker 1>in a better form. They're literally saying the lesser of

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<v Speaker 1>two evils, wake up, smell the coffee. The government has

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<v Speaker 1>a huge majority in the House. They can deal purely

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<v Speaker 1>with the Greens in the Senate and get things through.

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<v Speaker 1>This is an issue where the Coalition needs to stand

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<v Speaker 1>up and say we will try and regain some credibility

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<v Speaker 1>and bargain for the best result. On superannuation and increase tax.

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<v Speaker 1>There is a mandate for increased tax on some superannuation,

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<v Speaker 1>but you can do it better. This is the same

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<v Speaker 1>thing that happened with the super profits tax on mining.

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<v Speaker 1>The government pushed it through and by the way, Jim

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<v Speaker 1>Chalmers was.

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<v Speaker 2>Working for Wayne Wayneford. That's right.

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<v Speaker 1>They tried to push it through. It was a complete disaster.

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<v Speaker 1>It was a badly formed because it hadn't involved the industry,

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<v Speaker 1>and then in the end they had to just dump

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<v Speaker 1>it completely and change it completely. You know how much

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<v Speaker 1>it gets about ten thousand dollars a year. It was

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<v Speaker 1>meant to get ten billion dollars a year now. So

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<v Speaker 1>what we're looking at here, I think, is at the

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<v Speaker 1>moment where Australian politicians need to grasp the reality. And

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<v Speaker 1>this is particularly the Treasurer and some of those in

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<v Speaker 1>the Coalition who don't seem to realize things have changed.

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<v Speaker 1>Labor is in power for three years, the Greens have

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<v Speaker 1>sole balance of power in the Senate, and the two

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<v Speaker 1>major parties need to regain some credibility. Yes we need revenue,

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<v Speaker 1>Yes there is a mandate to get it. It should

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<v Speaker 1>be done in the best way.

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<v Speaker 2>So the coalition could simply say we're going to try

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<v Speaker 2>and get a better deal. We sometimes in life you've

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<v Speaker 2>got to hold your nose and do something you don't

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<v Speaker 2>like doing. We're going to hold our nose, nome we've

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<v Speaker 2>got a slightly better deal. But I'll tell you what

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<v Speaker 2>in three years, these thing's gonski and people go fair enough,

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<v Speaker 2>we know where you stand. But this on again, off again.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh no, we're not going to do a deal. They've

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<v Speaker 2>got no they've got no clout, they've got absolutely nothing.

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<v Speaker 2>They've had their pants pulled down and they're acting like

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<v Speaker 2>they're tough guys. Give me a break.

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<v Speaker 1>Definitely, I mean they have no embarrassment at all this.

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<v Speaker 1>And the point here is that ten O'Brien has said

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<v Speaker 1>we won't shift on taxing unrealized capital gains. That is

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<v Speaker 1>a perfectly good principle. There are a lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>in the Labor Party you don't believe in it. And

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<v Speaker 1>as you pointed out, Luke, this is the sort of

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<v Speaker 1>thing that will spread like cancer through the tax system.

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<v Speaker 1>All of a sudden, people's properties will be involved. There'll

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<v Speaker 1>be more general capital gains, tax on unrealized capital gains.

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<v Speaker 1>This is what this will be the beginning of it.

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<v Speaker 1>It will have a bad effect on superannuation, not to

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<v Speaker 1>mention farmers and businesses and small businesses and investors. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>the government says it's only affecting a few people, but

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<v Speaker 1>without indexation and with this principle of unrealized capital gains.

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<v Speaker 1>An estimated number of people affected at the moment would

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<v Speaker 1>be eighty to one hundred thousand, maybe one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty thousand, but it goes to hundreds of thousands over

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<v Speaker 1>a few years because it's not index. And let's face it,

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<v Speaker 1>everyone thinks, oh, three million dollars, that's a big that's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of superannuation. Well, no, it won't be in

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<v Speaker 1>tea his time. It'll be average. The cost of the

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<v Speaker 1>average house at the moment. Yes, in australia's a million dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, yeah, ex excellent point. Excellent point. Sorry, No,

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<v Speaker 2>that's that's where that's where you say. It's not where

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<v Speaker 2>it starts where it's where it ends up. And that's

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<v Speaker 2>the excellent point you've made. Now I'm going to have

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<v Speaker 2>to take a break Downnis, because I think you and

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<v Speaker 2>I have a bit to talk about two words, Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump after this eighteen to ten Dennis Shanahan with me

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<v Speaker 2>is he is every Saturday morning, Dennis will talk about

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump and albow in a moment. But I think

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<v Speaker 2>you'd be interested as I'm sure, well you might even

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<v Speaker 2>well know this, but I'm sure my listeners would as well.

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<v Speaker 2>That there's been some contribution into the Trump Musk fiasco

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<v Speaker 2>by a lawyer, David Showen, a criminal defense lawyer who

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<v Speaker 2>represented Epstein before he died in police custody in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>nine ten. Now, of course, what has happened is Musk

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<v Speaker 2>has gone on Twitter or x and he's made mention

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<v Speaker 2>that in the Jeffrey Epstein file says mentioned of Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Musk referred to this as time to drop

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<v Speaker 2>the really big bomb. He said. The real reason the

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<v Speaker 2>Epstein files haven't been released is because I named Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>and then we get today from this David Showen, I

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<v Speaker 2>can authoritatively, unequivocally and definitively say that Epstein had no

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<v Speaker 2>information to hurt President Trump. I specifically asked him. So

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<v Speaker 2>that's from the lawyer working with Epstein before he died. Anyway,

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<v Speaker 2>that's part of this sideshow. I mean, good luck Albow

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<v Speaker 2>dealing with that. If he's in the room and there's cameras,

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<v Speaker 2>who knows what Donald Trump will throw at the feet

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<v Speaker 2>of our prime minister. But tariffs will be back at

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<v Speaker 2>top of the agenda with next week's meeting in Canada. Mate,

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<v Speaker 2>we're stealing beef topping that list.

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<v Speaker 1>They certainly will be. And look that is I have

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<v Speaker 1>been in a press conference in the White House with

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<v Speaker 1>an Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison. We went in, it

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<v Speaker 1>was just meant to be a quick photo shoot, and

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump talked for half an hour. This is the

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<v Speaker 1>danger for leaders now appearing with the President of the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. Ask President Zelenski, it doesn't matter who's there.

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<v Speaker 1>He will say anything. He could get things wrong. He

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<v Speaker 1>says things wrong. And this is an exact point on

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<v Speaker 1>the tariffs. Now. Originally, when the tariff first came up,

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump specifically mentioned Australian beef producers and said Australia

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<v Speaker 1>was not allowing as US beef into Australia because of tariffs,

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<v Speaker 1>and that they were responding now that wasn't true. Allowed

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<v Speaker 1>the import of American beef if they can prove the

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<v Speaker 1>biosecurity standards that they demand of Australian beef, and that

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<v Speaker 1>is that you can after mad cow disease and a

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<v Speaker 1>range of other diseases, that you can prove that your

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<v Speaker 1>cattle that you are exporting, whether you killed or alive,

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<v Speaker 1>have been where you can actually say the farm they've

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<v Speaker 1>come from. Now in the US they can't do that.

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<v Speaker 1>Even if it's butchered, it may have come from Mexico,

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<v Speaker 1>it may have come from Canada, and there is still

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<v Speaker 1>a danger of mad cow disease in both Mexico and Canada.

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<v Speaker 1>And so if we are going to accept US beef,

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<v Speaker 1>then they have to demonstrate that it's a bio security

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<v Speaker 1>issue and that it's safe and that comes from the US,

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<v Speaker 1>not from Mexico or Canada. If they can't guarantee that,

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<v Speaker 1>we won't let that in. Now, this became an issue

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<v Speaker 1>this week as tariffs raised again and Donald Trump put

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<v Speaker 1>up steel tariffs again, and at first there was a

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<v Speaker 1>big outcry from farmers. Anthony Albinezi responded quickly and said, look,

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<v Speaker 1>we are not going to give in on biosecurity. We're

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<v Speaker 1>not going to give on the beef. That is not

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<v Speaker 1>a tariff issue. We're not giving in on it. And

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<v Speaker 1>so he realized the danger there and worked very quickly. However,

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<v Speaker 1>next week, in the so called sidelines of the G

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<v Speaker 1>seven meeting, the Prime Minister is due to meet Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump and have a discussion. Tariffs will be part of that,

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<v Speaker 1>a big part of that, and Australia has been trying

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<v Speaker 1>for some time now since the introduction of the first tariff,

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<v Speaker 1>which included tariff's on penguins in Macquarie Island. We're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to get a better deal on Australian steel and generally

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<v Speaker 1>for Australia, but we're using mins critical minerals as a

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:08.040
<v Speaker 1>bargaining chip that we're saying we won't give way on

0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.959
<v Speaker 1>our pharmaceutical schemes. We won't give way that's going to

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:16.319
<v Speaker 1>increase the cost of medicines on our PBS, and we

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.320
<v Speaker 1>won't give way on beef. So there's two areas there

0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.680
<v Speaker 1>where the Prime Minister has already said we're not shifting.

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.480
<v Speaker 1>And there are a whole range of other areas where

0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 1>the US, sorry, the UK and the US have come

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 1>to agreements. Canada has had an agreement. So there are

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 1>a few countries, and this week the US sent out

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.120
<v Speaker 1>a letter saying come to us with your best deal.

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:42.720
<v Speaker 1>The deadlines now. So next week we will see exactly

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:46.280
<v Speaker 1>what the Prime Minister can get out of Donald Trump,

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:53.800
<v Speaker 1>if anything, using our store mineral of critical minerals now. Interestingly,

0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:59.800
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump said during the week that critical minerals were

0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:04.480
<v Speaker 1>already a key issue in Ukraine because Ukraine has critical minerals,

0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:10.960
<v Speaker 1>and that was also part of his discussion with Jijiping

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:15.880
<v Speaker 1>of China. So critical minerals are the key that we

0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 1>can use to get some room. But we shouldn't give

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:23.760
<v Speaker 1>way on beef, and which is a biosecurity issue, not

0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:24.600
<v Speaker 1>a terrif issue.

0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because we've made mining the enemy. So all of

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.920
<v Speaker 2>a sudden we've got a backflip again, and this time

0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:34.680
<v Speaker 2>around critical. It's madness I think made. I actually think

0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:39.520
<v Speaker 2>in the Oval Office or elsewhere that the Trump wild

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:42.360
<v Speaker 2>card is to say to Albo, Hey, listen, mate, any

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:46.080
<v Speaker 2>chance you can pull your weight in defense? Any chance

0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:48.960
<v Speaker 2>he could do something because I'm not sending our young

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.440
<v Speaker 2>men and women and you're back and cry, You've got

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.120
<v Speaker 2>to do your own heavy lifting. I think we're very vulnerable.

0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:54.600
<v Speaker 2>There are we?

0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.400
<v Speaker 1>Oh? We are? Now this is a big question. This

0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:02.680
<v Speaker 1>is a second big question for Anthony Albert. Now the

0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:08.760
<v Speaker 1>US at the Singapore Dialogue actually asked Richard mail Miles

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:12.720
<v Speaker 1>face to face for an increase in defense spending a

0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 1>three point five percent of GDP. Now, the Prime Minister

0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:21.600
<v Speaker 1>and Richard Miles as Defense Minister, said where we are

0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>up for this conversation? He didn't confirm the three point

0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.680
<v Speaker 1>five percent figure that came out of the US. But

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.560
<v Speaker 1>what we've actually got is clearly the US saying to us,

0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:36.080
<v Speaker 1>and they've been saying to us all along and all

0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:39.640
<v Speaker 1>their other allies, particularly in Europe, that we have to

0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:43.000
<v Speaker 1>pull our own weight. We've had the US warning that

0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:48.920
<v Speaker 1>there's possibility of a Chinese mainland China invasion of Taiwan

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 1>being imminent and that this could occur before twenty twenty seven,

0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.680
<v Speaker 1>and so there is huge pressure in the region on this.

0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:03.040
<v Speaker 1>The Prime Minister has been to Indonesia and talked about

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:07.240
<v Speaker 1>defence Singapore likewise, Now I think what we have to do,

0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.160
<v Speaker 1>and I think this is what the Prime Minister could

0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:14.119
<v Speaker 1>be doing. He could be waiting till he sees Donald Trump.

0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 1>And then because Donald Trump's very keen about talking about

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.879
<v Speaker 1>not having any aces or any cards or any Trumps,

0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.440
<v Speaker 1>and then the Prime Minister can say, well, as a

0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.840
<v Speaker 1>matter of fact, we're looking at doing this ourselves and

0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.840
<v Speaker 1>not being seen to be doing at the behest of

0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:34.760
<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, because he's very keen not to be seen

0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.680
<v Speaker 1>to be doing that. But he's keeping his powder dry.

0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:41.480
<v Speaker 1>People who say, oh, he hasn't you know, is rejected. No,

0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:44.760
<v Speaker 1>he hasn't rejected the calls. He has kept his powder

0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:48.280
<v Speaker 1>dry and when the moment comes, he can then see

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:49.240
<v Speaker 1>whether it'll be enough.

0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:52.000
<v Speaker 2>All right, mate, have a great weekend. Love that a

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:55.399
<v Speaker 2>chat to stay well. See you see Dennis Shanahan back

0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:55.920
<v Speaker 2>next week.