S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
S1: This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris. It's Wednesday,
S1: March 5th. Communities in Queensland and New South Wales have
S1: been spotted panic buying and stripping supermarket shelves bare as
S1: they brace themselves for the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
S1: Because while the weather system has already whipped up waves
S1: more than eight metres tall in one area off the
S1: coast of Queensland, it's expected to hit land tomorrow or Friday.
S1: And many Australians know all too well 50 years on
S1: from Cyclone Tracy, which devastated Darwin, just how much damage
S1: a cyclone can create.
S2: Gusts of more than 100km/h officially hitting at 3 a.m.
S2: with deadly effect.
S1: But just how bad might the damage be this time around? Today,
S1: senior meteorologist Angus Hines from the Bureau of Meteorology on
S1: why Tropical Cyclone Alfred is so unusual and where it's
S1: expected to hit, and on the increasing numbers of Australians
S1: who are looking to social media and storm chasing websites
S1: rather than government trackers for information about this cyclone. So, Angus,
S1: we have seen strong winds and huge surf conditions hit
S1: the coast of Queensland, and we know that Queensland Premier
S1: David Crisafulli has urged residents to listen to warnings from authorities.
S1: Now we're recording this on Tuesday morning, but what are
S1: the latest developments of Cyclone Alfred? And I guess how
S1: concerned should people in Queensland actually be?
S3: Yeah, yeah. Good morning. It is a really significant weather system.
S3: We don't see tropical cyclones down here very often. They
S3: really do pack a punch, both in terms of damaging
S3: and destructive wind, but also widespread persistent heavy rainfall and
S3: the flooding which comes out of that rainfall, which is
S3: expected to be significant. We've got the potential for some
S3: major flooding on both sides of the state border in
S3: the coming days.
S4: Millions of Queenslanders are currently in the firing line of
S4: Tropical Cyclone Alfred, as the storm is upgraded to a
S4: category two storm.
S5: Surge is already pummeling the coast, combining with this morning's
S5: higher than usual tides.
S6: If it crosses the coast there, it'll be the first
S6: tropical cyclone to directly hit the region in more than
S6: 50 years.
S7: Around the time of crossing, those wave, heights may push
S7: towards 8 or 9m, so incredibly large waves that are.
S5: Having island is continuing to disappear beneath the waves. For
S5: the second time.
S3: We didn't anticipate Alfred to approach Australia, particularly south east
S3: Queensland and north east New South Wales, slowly through the
S3: days on Wednesday and Thursday, and likely reach the south
S3: east coast of Queensland sometime late in the day on Thursday,
S3: perhaps Thursday evening, Thursday night or maybe even the first
S3: few hours of Friday morning. This is going to be
S3: a significant event. People in that part of the country.
S3: For Queensland, it's likely to be south of about Fraser Island.
S3: Gallery on the east Coast, right down to the border,
S3: and for New South Wales, perhaps north of around about.
S3: Coffs Harbour should absolutely be aware and up to date
S3: with what's going on with Tropical Cyclone Alfred as it
S3: approaches and eventually reaches the coastline. So this is a
S3: big weather event, absolutely one to be across and be
S3: up to date with all the information and and how
S3: it might affect your area.
S1: Now, Angus, of course you've mentioned New South Wales there,
S1: which is also under threat. And we know that this
S1: is a bit unusual. You know, the state is bracing
S1: for its first tropical cyclone in more than three decades.
S1: So why does this particular cyclone have this I guess
S1: unusual breadth.
S3: Yeah, it is unusual. It is really unusual to see
S3: tropical cyclones get as far south as New South Wales.
S3: It does happen from time to time. The last time
S3: there was some sort of minor skirting impacts from a
S3: tropical cyclone in the north of New South Wales was
S3: 2019 with Tropical Cyclone Oma, but it didn't make the
S3: landfall there. So this could be a real shift compared
S3: to that most recent one. Look, it's been a whole
S3: combination of factors which have led to the track of Alfred.
S3: We've got very warm waters over the Coral Sea and
S3: even down into the northern Tasman. So while a tropical
S3: cyclone moving south normally moves over cold waters, and that's
S3: what sort of tends to make it weaken away. This
S3: one's still over some relatively warm waters. There's still enough
S3: heat and fuel there to sustain it. That's a pretty
S3: big reason as to why we're still seeing this exist
S3: as a tropical cyclone. And then we've got some other
S3: atmospheric patterns at play. We've got some big highs and
S3: and lows around Australia, which has sort of been pushing
S3: it and nudging it and steering it and dragging it southwards.
S3: So the whole array of factors have been working together
S3: to pull Alfred down towards that New South Wales Queensland coastline.
S3: And yeah, pretty unusual to see tropical impacts that far
S3: south in the country.
S1: And like you mentioned before, you know, one of the
S1: biggest concerns, I think, both for Queensland and even potentially
S1: New South Wales is of course this massive amount of rainfall,
S1: which of course brings flooding into the picture. So are
S1: there particular areas, whether it's in Queensland or in New
S1: South Wales or both, that, you know, people really would
S1: want to be wondering if they're going to be hit
S1: with a flood. Because obviously, I know if I was
S1: in any of those areas, I'd be thinking, is this?
S1: Is this going to be me? Is this going to
S1: be my home town?
S3: Yeah, well, major flooding is possible sort of all around
S3: the crossing point of the tropical cyclone. So again, in Queensland,
S3: I'd be looking for that Fraser Island Gary, right down
S3: to the southern state border, uh, particularly east of the
S3: Great Dividing Range in New South Wales. I'd be looking
S3: from around about Coffs Harbour northwards on the eastern side
S3: of the mountains, in particular, when the cyclone does arrive,
S3: what we typically see is the worst of the rain
S3: and the worst of the flooding is on the southern
S3: side of where it arrives. So if it does arrive
S3: somewhere around that Sunshine Coast region, which is currently the
S3: the forecast track in places south of the Sunshine Coast
S3: will probably pick up the most rain and the most
S3: significant flooding. And that's actually all to do with the
S3: way that the wind moves around a tropical cyclone. It
S3: moves in a clockwise fashion, which means in this part
S3: of the world. When it reaches the coast, it's that
S3: southern side where the winds are really slamming against the country.
S3: And that's what brings the most significant rain on that side.
S1: And tell us, I guess, about, you know, how potentially
S1: devastating I guess this might be, because I know that
S1: in New South Wales in particular, there was the 2022
S1: floods in and around the northern River area, which was
S1: the biggest flood in modern Australian history. So are we
S1: looking at something that has the potential to be that devastating?
S3: It's pretty hard to say that this far ahead of time,
S3: whether we could match those record breaking floods from a
S3: few years ago, but we certainly could see some extremely
S3: significant flooding, perhaps in those same areas or perhaps in
S3: some different areas of north eastern New South Wales or
S3: south eastern Queensland. We've got some really big rainfall tallies,
S3: which we're anticipating multiple hundreds of millimetres of rain per
S3: day for several days in a row. So we could
S3: be seeing some spots get over half a metre of
S3: rain during during, say, the three day around the crossing.
S3: So probably from Thursday through until about Saturday or Sunday
S3: is when the bulk of the rain will occur. And
S3: if we do see those numbers up over 500mm, that
S3: is going to be major flooding, both major flash flooding
S3: and major riverine flooding. So really, really significant event is
S3: on the cards.
S1: And I know we've been focusing on rain and flooding
S1: and they're of course terrifying. But you did mention, of course,
S1: that destructive winds, you know, they're a part of this
S1: as well. And they could be hugely damaging. So can
S1: you give us an example of what sort of damage?
S1: I guess just the wind from a category two cyclone
S1: can can create.
S3: Oh yeah, it can be. You're absolutely right. Wind is
S3: a major part of it, particularly right on that crossing time.
S3: What we often see when a cyclone crosses the coast
S3: is the wind is the first thing to sort of
S3: die away and ease off. But the rain can go
S3: for several days. So it's really that first 6 to
S3: 12 hours during and after the crossing where the wind
S3: could be worst. And if we are seeing gusts over
S3: 150km an hour at that time, that can be extremely damaging.
S3: Certainly damaging enough to to cause some significant damage to property.
S3: Take down fences, outhouses, sheds, blow your trampoline and your
S3: furniture around. Maybe take off some roof panels. Things like
S3: that can also take down branches and some potentially entire trees.
S3: And of course, it can really put a lot of
S3: stress on the power network. You get a tree over
S3: some power lines, you can really see significant power outages.
S3: And we often do in times of strong wind, see
S3: resulting power outages. So those are the types of things
S3: that are possible. It can also make for really difficult
S3: conditions to travel around in hard to drive, particularly on
S3: either motorbikes or vehicles with tall sides like caravans, buses, trucks,
S3: things like that. And of course it's going to be
S3: a very hard to fly in those conditions, so likely
S3: to see disruptions in that area as well. So it
S3: really does make everything pretty difficult and it can cause
S3: really significant damage and outages.
S1: We'll be right back. So, Angus, can you actually explain
S1: just briefly what a cyclone actually is and how it forms?
S1: And why is it that one can change so rapidly?
S3: Yeah, tropical cyclone is a weather system. It's an individual
S3: weather system. So it's a big rotating stream of air
S3: races around in a circle. And if you've seen those
S3: satellite images, you often see a hole in the middle.
S3: That's what we call the eye of the tropical cyclone.
S3: It's actually quite calm in that eye. But right around it,
S3: what we call the eye wall, the winds are extremely powerful,
S3: spinning around in a circle there. And then as you
S3: sort of radiate outwards from that, the winds do do
S3: slacking off a little bit. The further you get from
S3: the center often that'll be sort of several hundred kilometers
S3: across with very strong winds. Also, around that eye and
S3: the eye wall, we see a lot of rainfall, a
S3: lot of thunderstorms, and it's just a very, very powerful
S3: weather system. Now, how they form a few things have
S3: to align in the atmosphere for them to form, which
S3: is why they're not just forming all the time. Every
S3: day things have to line up and be just right.
S3: So number one is we need really warm water. And
S3: the reason is a lot of the energy for the
S3: tropical cyclone comes from the heat from the ocean. So
S3: that's why they only really form in the tropics, because
S3: they get so much sunshine all year. In the tropics
S3: of the sea, surface temperatures are fairly warm, so they
S3: need to be in the high 20s, really 28, 29
S3: degrees in terms of the ocean temperatures. And the second
S3: thing which has to align to allow tropical cyclone to
S3: form is the wind in the atmosphere, not just the
S3: wind at the surface where you and I would notice it,
S3: but the wind throughout the height of the atmosphere. So
S3: in the the bottom five KS, ten KS of the atmosphere,
S3: the winds have to align. And we basically want light
S3: winds throughout that whole column above the tropical cyclone. So
S3: those are two of the really key things. And actually
S3: lining them up is not super common.
S1: And Angus, can you just briefly I guess take us
S1: through what the different categories of cyclones actually mean. And
S1: I guess whether there's potential that this cyclone is going
S1: to reach a higher category. Yeah.
S3: Great question. I would the categories determine the strength of
S3: the tropical cyclone. So there's five categories goes from category
S3: one to category five. One being, I guess, the least
S3: severe and category five being the most severe. And what
S3: determines what category number the cyclone falls in is actually
S3: the speed of the winds, which really race around the
S3: center of the eye of the tropical cyclones. Any time
S3: you're talking category two or stronger, those are wins that
S3: you don't really see in any other situation. So category two,
S3: which is what we're anticipating with Alfred. We'll be seeing
S3: average winds of about 100km an hour, with wind gusts
S3: of up to 150 or 160km an hour. And you
S3: don't really see those wind speeds replicated elsewhere. So for
S3: many people who haven't been in a tropical cyclone, they
S3: probably wouldn't have experienced winds of that speed so quite
S3: hard to fathom. And now I should also say the
S3: very strongest winds are over a pretty small area, but
S3: you'll see a broad region across the eastern side of
S3: the country with some fairly strong winds. Nonetheless, a category three, four,
S3: and five are just the same, but those wind speeds
S3: are even stronger. And there's always a chance that that
S3: a tropical cyclone could strengthen. I'd say at this stage,
S3: it's looking like a pretty outside chance that we get
S3: above category two. More likely to stay as category two,
S3: or potentially even lower down to a category one before
S3: reaching the coast. But I think category two is what
S3: most of our information is suggesting, with a very slim
S3: chance of anything stronger.
S1: And I believe, though, that the categories they actually only
S1: pertain to wind strength and not to the severity of
S1: the rain. So even if it remains at category two,
S1: that doesn't mean that it won't be hugely destructive because
S1: of the rain, right? Yeah, you're absolutely right.
S3: That's a really key point, actually. A lot of times
S3: people will see the category number drop and think that
S3: the risk is dropping with that, but that's not necessarily true.
S3: All that tells us is the winds aren't quite as strong.
S3: The rain can still be persistent and heavy. The resulting
S3: flooding can still be major and significant and disruptive. So
S3: the category is really only part of the story. The
S3: category keeps it nice and simple. That's sort of why
S3: we use it. It gives us a good baseline marker,
S3: but there's always more to the story than just the
S3: category number. And in this case, whether it's a category
S3: two or a category one or even that outside chance
S3: of a category three. The rain is going to be
S3: significant no matter which of those is the category number.
S3: And I think.
S1: There might be a lot of listeners out there who
S1: are wondering what I'm currently wondering, which is how far
S1: south is it predicted that the cyclone might actually hit? Like,
S1: is there any possibility that this could hit somewhere like
S1: Newcastle or Sydney?
S3: That's looking very, very unlikely that it would hit down
S3: that far south. A crossing in New South Wales is unlikely,
S3: although not completely out of the question. If it is there,
S3: it will be in the very, very far north of
S3: the state. So Newcastle, Sydney and anything south of that
S3: will be a long way away from the crossing point,
S3: although you'll see a little bit of impact in terms
S3: of persistent showers, quite strong winds down there, but the
S3: more significant weather, the more major flooding will be further
S3: to the north.
S1: And Angus, I want to ask you about where you
S1: might hope that listeners are getting their information from regarding
S1: the cyclone, because some of my colleagues are seeing what
S1: appears to be a rise in the number of people
S1: turning to storm chasers and other non-government weather sites for information.
S1: So how does the Bureau of Meteorology feel, I guess,
S1: about people getting their information elsewhere?
S3: I mean, yeah, there are times when following storm chasers
S3: and things can be great information, but I think in
S3: these really significant events, getting information direct from the source,
S3: which is the Bureau of Meteorology, I think is the
S3: the best idea, particularly in times of severe weather.
S1: And Angus, just for those people, you know, because I
S1: really want to meet the listeners where they are. For
S1: those people who are getting some information on social media,
S1: I know a lot of people are discussing a site
S1: called Higgins Storm Chasing on social media. So would your
S1: response be that is not reliable? Do not look to that.
S1: Like what sort of practical information can you give people?
S3: I think I'd just reiterate that, particularly during times of
S3: severe weather, giving you information directly from the source, from
S3: the 24 hour day team of of experts, tropical cyclone
S3: forecasters updating in and issuing the the forecast and the
S3: official track maps. That's that's the best place to get
S3: that particular information. And that's never more pertinent than during
S3: times of severe and destructive weather. So I'll just reiterate
S3: that from the Bureau's perspective, I'm not going to comment
S3: on other weather agencies or weather organizations and their products.
S1: Okay. And, Angus, I guess just to wrap up, I
S1: did want to ask you because of course you guys
S1: have such a crucial part to play in really quite
S1: terrifying situations like this. Does it make it any harder
S1: for the Bureau of Meteorology to communicate danger about cyclones
S1: and other weather events when some people are looking, I
S1: guess for non-government websites like your own for information?
S3: Look, that's something we can't really control as where people
S3: get their information. All we can do is put out
S3: the best forecasts in a timely manner, and update them
S3: as soon as we get new information. That's what we
S3: have always done, and that's what we'll continue to do.
S3: We'll also try and find new avenues and new ways
S3: of communicating that information, reaching different people, whether that's traditional
S3: media like TV, radio, even newspapers or modern, you know,
S3: online social media, different online platforms, or just directly on
S3: our website. We're trying to get all the best information
S3: consistently spread across as many different places as possible. So
S3: as many different people can get that. Beyond that, we
S3: can't really control what people are doing. But again, I
S3: would encourage them to get the official information, the official
S3: tracks that are timely and always up to date and
S3: available from the Bureau. Now, when it comes to information
S3: about what's the best thing to do on the ground
S3: as a tropical cyclones approaching, that's where you're probably best
S3: to look to your local emergency services. So in Queensland
S3: we've got a great set of resources from Get Ready
S3: Queensland about how to prepare for a tropical cyclone approach
S3: and then what to do as it gets closer and crosses,
S3: and also keeping your ears out, perhaps on your local
S3: ABC emergency and things like that for updates during the
S3: crossing and through those hours when the weather is most severe.
S3: So you can get the information from your emergency services
S3: in regards to which places to avoid, as to whether
S3: there's any evacuations or anything of that sort going on,
S3: and that that information can get out in a timely
S3: manner as well. So during the lead up and with
S3: the severe weather information, go to the bureau. But it's
S3: your local authorities and emergency management during that time of
S3: severe weather. Who will have the best information for you.
S1: Well, thank you so much, Angus, for your time.
S3: All right. Thanks for having me. And yeah, best of
S3: luck to everyone in Queensland and New South Wales over
S3: the next few days. Definitely prepare for the worst and
S3: hope for the best.
S1: Absolutely. Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by
S1: Julia Carcasole and Josh towers. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills.
S1: Our head of audio is Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition
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S1: in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris, this is
S1: the morning edition. Thanks for listening.