1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:05,000 S1: Hello and merry Christmas. It's Jacqueline Maley here. Your Inside 2 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,880 S1: Politics team is on a little hiatus over summer before 3 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:10,479 S1: we return at the end of January. And in the meantime, 4 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:12,960 S1: we hope you enjoy some of our favorite episodes of 5 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:15,800 S1: the year, starting with a trip down memory lane to 6 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:19,200 S1: election night with our former chief political correspondent, David Crowe, 7 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,799 S1: before he passed the baton to BFF of the podcast, 8 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:30,160 S1: Paul Circle. David, you are not one to overuse an adjective, 9 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:33,000 S1: but you wrote in your piece for Saturday night that 10 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:38,040 S1: Anthony Albanese's victory was historic, stunning and extraordinary. Why do 11 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:39,320 S1: you use those words? 12 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:44,160 S2: Because it's so unusual to get a first term government 13 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:49,280 S2: increasing its majority in this way. It doesn't happen very often. 14 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,080 S2: I was talking to Shane Wright, our colleague earlier, and 15 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,480 S2: he's told me when it last happened, and now I 16 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:58,520 S2: can't remember just because it's a blizzard of information on 17 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:03,260 S2: election night, but it's incredibly rare. The other thing, of course, 18 00:01:03,260 --> 00:01:06,700 S2: is that Anthony Albanese has become the first prime minister 19 00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:11,660 S2: since John Howard in 2004 to get another term as 20 00:01:11,660 --> 00:01:14,660 S2: an incumbent, and that's also been too rare in the 21 00:01:14,660 --> 00:01:18,660 S2: last 20 years or so. Since Kevin Rudd in 2007, 22 00:01:18,660 --> 00:01:22,860 S2: we've had one term prime ministers finally getting a prime 23 00:01:22,860 --> 00:01:25,819 S2: minister who serves a second term with a bit of 24 00:01:25,819 --> 00:01:29,220 S2: continuity in the job with an agenda for a second term. 25 00:01:29,260 --> 00:01:31,740 S2: He's even talking about a third term to our colleague 26 00:01:31,740 --> 00:01:36,340 S2: James Massola. All of these things make it a really 27 00:01:36,340 --> 00:01:41,060 S2: incredible night. And bear in mind, there had been talk 28 00:01:41,220 --> 00:01:43,940 S2: only months ago about or weeks ago about labor going 29 00:01:43,940 --> 00:01:46,700 S2: into minority government. And here they are with this increased 30 00:01:46,700 --> 00:01:51,140 S2: majority and with this mandate, when households are doing it 31 00:01:51,140 --> 00:01:54,260 S2: very tough and, you know, on other grounds they might 32 00:01:54,260 --> 00:01:56,420 S2: want to boot out a government when when the cost 33 00:01:56,420 --> 00:01:58,870 S2: of living is so bad. So on all those fronts, 34 00:01:58,870 --> 00:02:01,470 S2: it's it's really quite an incredible outcome. 35 00:02:01,830 --> 00:02:06,270 S1: Yeah. I've just come back from the Canterbury Hurlstone Park RSL, 36 00:02:06,310 --> 00:02:09,710 S1: which is where the the Labor Party faithful gathered tonight. 37 00:02:09,710 --> 00:02:13,070 S1: And Albanese just gave his speech, his victory speech. It 38 00:02:13,070 --> 00:02:15,549 S1: was exactly the same stage, exactly the same venue where 39 00:02:15,550 --> 00:02:19,070 S1: he gave his victory speech in 2022, where he talked 40 00:02:19,070 --> 00:02:21,190 S1: a lot about the voice, which obviously didn't get a 41 00:02:21,190 --> 00:02:26,070 S1: mention tonight. What did you think of of the speech, David? 42 00:02:26,110 --> 00:02:28,950 S2: I thought it was, um, one of the best speeches 43 00:02:28,950 --> 00:02:32,190 S2: that he has delivered in his political life. 44 00:02:33,870 --> 00:02:38,269 S3: Serving as your prime minister is the greatest honour of 45 00:02:38,270 --> 00:02:39,030 S3: my life. 46 00:02:41,750 --> 00:02:46,029 S2: I think it was very inclusive. He did have, I guess, 47 00:02:46,070 --> 00:02:51,630 S2: that pointed reference to acknowledging Indigenous Australians, which, given Peter 48 00:02:51,630 --> 00:02:55,190 S2: Dutton started this or fuelled this, this debate about the 49 00:02:55,190 --> 00:02:57,570 S2: welcome to country was a very pointed reference. 50 00:02:58,250 --> 00:03:02,410 S3: And I pay my respects to elders past, present and 51 00:03:02,410 --> 00:03:05,610 S3: emerging today and every day. 52 00:03:06,130 --> 00:03:09,090 S2: But in every other way he was gracious towards Peter Dutton. 53 00:03:09,850 --> 00:03:13,130 S2: He made it so important at the start of the 54 00:03:13,130 --> 00:03:16,330 S2: speech to simply thank Australians for their vote. He talked 55 00:03:16,330 --> 00:03:21,570 S2: about kindness. He talked about unity, about confidence. It was 56 00:03:21,850 --> 00:03:25,169 S2: a message trying to sort of lift up Australia at 57 00:03:25,169 --> 00:03:29,330 S2: a time where global conditions are so hostile, really, to 58 00:03:29,370 --> 00:03:33,850 S2: liberal democracies. Now, I'm not saying that he's got the 59 00:03:33,889 --> 00:03:37,890 S2: answer and that there is this incredible second term agenda 60 00:03:37,890 --> 00:03:39,970 S2: that's going to fix everything, because I think there are 61 00:03:39,970 --> 00:03:42,530 S2: a lot of questions about that. But it was a 62 00:03:42,530 --> 00:03:43,930 S2: very good speech in that way. 63 00:03:43,970 --> 00:03:46,970 S1: It was very optimistic. He talked about how his mother 64 00:03:46,970 --> 00:03:48,930 S1: had raised him to be an optimist and to see 65 00:03:48,930 --> 00:03:51,690 S1: the best in people, and there was every reason for 66 00:03:51,730 --> 00:03:54,650 S1: Australians to feel optimistic, which, as you say, is sort 67 00:03:54,650 --> 00:03:57,870 S1: of against the global zeitgeist. Paul, you were in the 68 00:03:57,870 --> 00:04:00,390 S1: room with the Dutton camp up in Brisbane, and you 69 00:04:00,430 --> 00:04:04,270 S1: watched the opposition leader's concession speech, which I think we 70 00:04:04,270 --> 00:04:09,190 S1: have to say was very gracious and refreshing, really, from him. 71 00:04:09,390 --> 00:04:11,870 S1: Talk us through the night there. What was the vibe 72 00:04:11,870 --> 00:04:12,950 S1: like in that room? 73 00:04:13,310 --> 00:04:15,670 S4: Yeah. Well, for all the talk about comparing Dutton to Trump, 74 00:04:15,670 --> 00:04:18,990 S4: some of it fair, some of it probably exaggerated, it's 75 00:04:19,029 --> 00:04:21,270 S4: a great sign of our democracy that there was no, 76 00:04:21,510 --> 00:04:24,150 S4: no suggestion that Dutton would ever do what Trump did 77 00:04:24,150 --> 00:04:26,910 S4: and question anything about how the political process plays out. 78 00:04:26,950 --> 00:04:30,390 S4: So it was gracious. He was he was, uh, he 79 00:04:30,430 --> 00:04:33,029 S4: he was relatively upbeat for a guy who'd just been 80 00:04:33,029 --> 00:04:36,910 S4: defeated so thoroughly. The room was quite warm when he 81 00:04:36,910 --> 00:04:39,909 S4: emerged at about 930 in the W Hotel in Brisbane. 82 00:04:40,230 --> 00:04:43,610 S4: He was watching upstairs with his family about 10 or 83 00:04:43,610 --> 00:04:46,110 S4: 15 minutes earlier. Some of his key supporters, including his 84 00:04:46,110 --> 00:04:50,230 S4: ministerial ally Steve Ciobo, Christian Porter, Michael Keenan, the campaign 85 00:04:50,230 --> 00:04:53,030 S4: spokesman James Paterson entered the room with Tony Abbott as well. 86 00:04:53,150 --> 00:04:55,360 S4: It well was actually pretty light on for politicians. There 87 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,080 S4: weren't many current or former MPs there, except the ones 88 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:00,880 S4: I've named. He received a big applause when he rocked up. 89 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,720 S4: Dutton and then was really warmly allowed to exit the 90 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:05,479 S4: room with a long standing ovation. 91 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,240 S5: Well, tonight's not the night that we wanted for the 92 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,920 S5: Liberal Party or for our coalition, or indeed for our country. 93 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,520 S4: He's built up a lot of goodwill in the party. 94 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:15,400 S4: There are not many people on the moderate side, and 95 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,000 S4: certainly not on the right where he sits, who have 96 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:21,080 S4: much disdain for him. I think there was a there 97 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,640 S4: was a significant rump of people who just felt really 98 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,280 S4: sorry for a guy who they thought had given it 99 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:30,279 S4: his all, but also deep acknowledgement from even his staff and, uh, 100 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:32,880 S4: some of his close MPs who I spoke to in 101 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:36,640 S4: text and calls after, who just saw the result and 102 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:40,320 S4: realised that what they offered was totally, uh, not up 103 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:40,640 S4: to it. 104 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,240 S5: Now, we didn't do well enough during this campaign. That 105 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,960 S5: much is obvious tonight and I accept full responsibility for that. 106 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:51,280 S4: The campaign was poor. The policy offering was meek. Dutton 107 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,859 S4: proved to be someone who was by the end, the 108 00:05:53,860 --> 00:05:57,580 S4: last Newspoll had him at the lowest popularity rating since 109 00:05:57,620 --> 00:06:00,980 S4: Andrew Peacock in the early 90s. So he's shown himself 110 00:06:00,980 --> 00:06:03,900 S4: to be one of the most deeply unpopular political party 111 00:06:03,900 --> 00:06:05,580 S4: leaders in a long time. And that showed tonight. 112 00:06:05,620 --> 00:06:08,340 S1: Yeah. Okay. So the recriminations on the liberal side are 113 00:06:08,339 --> 00:06:10,900 S1: going to be, um, going to be swift and interesting. 114 00:06:10,940 --> 00:06:13,099 S1: What does this sort of I mean, I don't know, 115 00:06:13,140 --> 00:06:15,060 S1: are we calling it a landslide? It's a sort of 116 00:06:15,100 --> 00:06:18,700 S1: huge increased majority. We don't know of what magnitude yet, 117 00:06:18,700 --> 00:06:22,339 S1: but a pretty interesting and big result. Is it all 118 00:06:22,339 --> 00:06:26,900 S1: about Albanese's personal popularity? Is it about the labor policy offering, 119 00:06:26,900 --> 00:06:31,060 S1: or is it more disillusionment with Peter Dutton and the coalition? David, 120 00:06:31,060 --> 00:06:31,820 S1: what do you think? 121 00:06:31,860 --> 00:06:35,100 S2: I think the Peter Dutton factor was real, and it 122 00:06:35,100 --> 00:06:38,779 S2: was something that the coalition underestimated, because clearly they didn't 123 00:06:38,779 --> 00:06:43,340 S2: position him better going into this. If they wanted to 124 00:06:44,339 --> 00:06:47,980 S2: get Australians to get to know Peter Dutton as a 125 00:06:48,020 --> 00:06:50,920 S2: as a family man and so forth, They should have 126 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:54,839 S2: been doing more on that front last year. But really 127 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:58,400 S2: it was about, I think, the core offer from Labour. 128 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,880 S2: And I think this goes back to something that I 129 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,919 S2: know Paul's been talking to Labour people about for ages 130 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:08,080 S2: and so have I. We all knew that Labour felt 131 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:09,960 S2: they couldn't win if it was going to be about 132 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:12,440 S2: the last three years, it had to be about the 133 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,160 S2: forward offer. And I heard that phrase repeatedly, the forward offer, 134 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,360 S2: and that was about telling people, we're going to do 135 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,280 S2: the following things for the next three years. And that's 136 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:25,760 S2: where the liberals were, I think, complacent because Labour knew 137 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,040 S2: exactly what they were going to do, and they figured 138 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,760 S2: it out late last year, and then they started doing 139 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,720 S2: doing it in January with more money for Medicare, which 140 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:38,800 S2: of course, Peter Dutton matched. But it was Labour on 141 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,960 S2: the front foot saying, we are hearing you on the 142 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,760 S2: cost of living and we are doing the following things. 143 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,200 S2: Whether it was road funding or Medicare funding, the urgent 144 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:53,420 S2: care clinics and so forth. Um, they were delivering something 145 00:07:53,420 --> 00:07:57,060 S2: that helped households with their finances. And that just kept 146 00:07:57,060 --> 00:08:00,180 S2: going all the way through to the budget. All of 147 00:08:00,180 --> 00:08:04,500 S2: those things worked. Mind you can't forget that Donald Trump 148 00:08:04,500 --> 00:08:08,380 S2: was a factor because he brought this global turmoil to 149 00:08:08,420 --> 00:08:11,980 S2: the Australian election. But labor knew that it had to 150 00:08:11,980 --> 00:08:16,060 S2: offer something to Australians, and it started doing that in 151 00:08:16,060 --> 00:08:17,300 S2: a really disciplined way. 152 00:08:17,500 --> 00:08:19,820 S4: I'd add further to that. I agree you can't understate 153 00:08:19,820 --> 00:08:23,740 S4: the Trump factor, but domestic factors are also huge, and 154 00:08:24,140 --> 00:08:26,460 S4: some of this will be written in our long feature 155 00:08:26,460 --> 00:08:29,220 S4: story that we're writing with Matthew Knott and Natasha Chrysanthos 156 00:08:29,220 --> 00:08:31,140 S4: in coming days. So I'm giving a bit away. But 157 00:08:31,140 --> 00:08:34,340 S4: I think in hindsight, people will look at what Albanese 158 00:08:34,380 --> 00:08:37,020 S4: developed in terms of his election strategy and Paul Erickson, 159 00:08:37,059 --> 00:08:41,059 S4: the campaign boss, and realised that labor staked out the 160 00:08:41,059 --> 00:08:44,220 S4: centre ground at this election. They own the centre ground. 161 00:08:44,500 --> 00:08:48,590 S4: They pushed the Liberal Party on cost of living and 162 00:08:48,590 --> 00:08:50,670 S4: a number of other just core issues on health and 163 00:08:50,670 --> 00:08:53,790 S4: education and various other policy areas out to the side. 164 00:08:53,830 --> 00:08:57,830 S4: And Albanese commanded the centre in late October. Labor people 165 00:08:57,830 --> 00:09:00,069 S4: were looking at what Trump was doing to Kamala Harris. 166 00:09:00,350 --> 00:09:03,550 S4: Paul Erickson had his election strategy laid out by late 167 00:09:03,550 --> 00:09:06,989 S4: October and early November. And the core of it was 168 00:09:07,230 --> 00:09:10,430 S4: a cost of living argument centred on Medicare, turned into 169 00:09:10,429 --> 00:09:13,670 S4: a cost of living issue to talk about healthcare every day, 170 00:09:13,910 --> 00:09:16,910 S4: as a mechanism to say we are tangibly making your 171 00:09:16,910 --> 00:09:20,429 S4: life easier and cheaper in a cost of living crisis. 172 00:09:20,710 --> 00:09:24,710 S4: They hammered that home for months. They put economics at 173 00:09:24,710 --> 00:09:27,630 S4: the core of their agenda, which labor people, particularly in 174 00:09:27,670 --> 00:09:29,350 S4: kind of think tank land and on the right of 175 00:09:29,350 --> 00:09:32,390 S4: the Labor Party, have been calling for for years. They've said, 176 00:09:32,390 --> 00:09:35,270 S4: forget talking about social justice as the core of your 177 00:09:35,270 --> 00:09:38,590 S4: offering and progressivism as the core of your offering, and 178 00:09:38,590 --> 00:09:41,750 S4: make economics and living standards the core of Labor's brand. 179 00:09:41,990 --> 00:09:45,890 S4: Albanese and Paul Erickson did that. And incredibly, in the 180 00:09:45,890 --> 00:09:49,449 S4: polls in recent weeks, even after a huge spike in 181 00:09:49,450 --> 00:09:52,130 S4: interest rates and people having been worse off over the 182 00:09:52,130 --> 00:09:55,770 S4: last three years in terms of real incomes. Labour is 183 00:09:55,770 --> 00:09:58,929 S4: ahead on cost of living and economic management in most polls. 184 00:09:59,130 --> 00:10:03,250 S4: That's an extraordinary result, a vindication of their strategy and 185 00:10:03,250 --> 00:10:05,930 S4: a massive indictment on the party that's meant to be 186 00:10:05,929 --> 00:10:07,410 S4: known as the better economic manager. 187 00:10:07,450 --> 00:10:08,330 S6: Do you think it was also. 188 00:10:08,330 --> 00:10:11,010 S1: A rejection of Trumpism? Because we can't I mean, you know, 189 00:10:11,050 --> 00:10:13,370 S1: lots of people wrote during the campaign that Donald Trump 190 00:10:13,370 --> 00:10:17,370 S1: was sort of like the third person in the campaign. Obviously, 191 00:10:17,410 --> 00:10:21,690 S1: he was incredibly influential in terms of the global atmosphere, 192 00:10:21,690 --> 00:10:26,850 S1: but also in terms of all of the allegations that 193 00:10:26,890 --> 00:10:30,290 S1: Dutton or members of Dutton's party were aping Trump or 194 00:10:30,290 --> 00:10:32,330 S1: stealing from him, or wanted to bring that kind of 195 00:10:32,370 --> 00:10:36,290 S1: politics to Australia. He did have a go on woke issues, 196 00:10:36,290 --> 00:10:39,330 S1: so-called woke issues, particularly towards the end of the campaign. 197 00:10:39,370 --> 00:10:41,850 S1: How much of this can we see as a rejection 198 00:10:41,850 --> 00:10:44,150 S1: of that kind of politics? David. 199 00:10:44,190 --> 00:10:46,470 S2: I think we can see the election result as a 200 00:10:46,470 --> 00:10:52,070 S2: rejection of Trumpist ploys in in Australian politics, because there 201 00:10:52,070 --> 00:10:55,870 S2: have been some of those and I guess Jacinta Nampijinpa 202 00:10:55,870 --> 00:11:01,030 S2: price as the coalition's spokesperson for government efficiency, picking up 203 00:11:01,030 --> 00:11:05,270 S2: that kind of Doge theme from the US when she 204 00:11:05,270 --> 00:11:08,949 S2: said Make Australia great again. It clearly had the overtones 205 00:11:08,950 --> 00:11:13,790 S2: of a Trumpist line. If that was working for the coalition, 206 00:11:14,350 --> 00:11:16,750 S2: they would have had a, you know, side by side 207 00:11:16,750 --> 00:11:20,030 S2: with Peter Dutton for days afterwards. They didn't. She was 208 00:11:20,030 --> 00:11:23,710 S2: hidden after that. So that tells you how they saw 209 00:11:23,750 --> 00:11:26,070 S2: that playing out. But also, we know from our own 210 00:11:26,070 --> 00:11:29,550 S2: polling that almost two thirds of Australians see the election 211 00:11:29,550 --> 00:11:32,990 S2: of Trump as a bad thing for Australia. They don't 212 00:11:32,990 --> 00:11:36,870 S2: like him. And over the course of the campaign that 213 00:11:36,870 --> 00:11:41,190 S2: worked in Anthony Albanese's favor, I think of Anthony Albanese. Now, 214 00:11:41,470 --> 00:11:45,440 S2: given this dynamic as an anti-Trump. I mean, Albanese is 215 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:50,160 S2: always talking about orderly government. He presented a safe, friendly 216 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,360 S2: kind of face, even though he has been on the 217 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,720 S2: nose for so long on the cost of living. So 218 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:57,040 S2: he was an anti-Trump. 219 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,880 S1: He even talked about kindness and respect very pointedly in 220 00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:04,280 S1: his victory speech tonight. Paul, do you see this result 221 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,560 S1: as partly a rejection of that sort of anti-woke stuff 222 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,160 S1: that is very much associated with the Trump agenda? 223 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,760 S4: Partly. I'd also just say that as the Canadian election 224 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:20,280 S4: result proved Trump's erratic nature, his trashing of conservatism around 225 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,959 S4: the world has flipped the script in other Western countries 226 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:29,320 S4: and allowed centre left progressive leaders to become the Patriots, 227 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:34,559 S4: the ones talking about kind of nationalistic Australia first Canada 228 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:38,200 S4: first policies, which is something they've never been able to 229 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,540 S4: do with as much authority as the conservatives in their country, 230 00:12:41,540 --> 00:12:46,180 S4: because those conservatives are now portrayed as buddies with the 231 00:12:46,220 --> 00:12:49,540 S4: US president who's having a crack at all these allies. 232 00:12:49,740 --> 00:12:52,580 S4: So it's it's we're in uncharted territory. 233 00:13:03,580 --> 00:13:06,820 S7: Hello to crime nuts and nuts. Just generally we're back 234 00:13:06,820 --> 00:13:10,700 S7: with series seven of Naked City. I'd like to say 235 00:13:10,700 --> 00:13:13,579 S7: the delay was technical, but it's basically I'm bone lazy 236 00:13:13,820 --> 00:13:16,940 S7: forced now to do it. It's pretty good. We talk 237 00:13:16,980 --> 00:13:20,939 S7: about cold cases, hot cases and cases that were never solved. 238 00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:28,859 S7: Notorious crooks. Brilliant detectives and baghouse reporters. Naked city out 239 00:13:28,900 --> 00:13:31,819 S7: after the summer break. Enjoy your plum pudding. 240 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:43,720 S6: What were some of the. 241 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,720 S1: More surprising results of the night I want to talk about? 242 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,319 S1: You know, David, I don't know if you've had much 243 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,240 S1: of a look at the Greens vote. I want to 244 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:54,960 S1: talk about Tasmania, where labor was incredibly successful. Victoria and 245 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,560 S1: of course, Dutton's seat of Dickson. Let's just go first 246 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,320 S1: to the Greens vote. Have you had much of a 247 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:01,080 S1: look at that? 248 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:04,720 S2: Yes. And it hasn't been great for the Greens. Some 249 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:08,360 S2: of the results are very close. I haven't talked to 250 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,840 S2: anybody about what's what they're seeing in Brisbane, for instance 251 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:15,040 S2: in the Brisbane seats that is. But of course these 252 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,640 S2: are sort of must haves for the Greens. They did 253 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,760 S2: so well at the last election. Max Chandler-mather was their 254 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:25,520 S2: spokesperson on housing in Griffith, Stephen Bates in Brisbane, Elizabeth 255 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,680 S2: Watson Brown in Ryan. They want to hold those seats, 256 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:34,480 S2: but they haven't done that. Great labor is is within 257 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,840 S2: sight of turning things against them. I think it's different 258 00:14:37,930 --> 00:14:41,810 S2: in Melbourne, where there's concern about the labor seat of wills, 259 00:14:41,810 --> 00:14:44,490 S2: but you cannot see across the board that this is 260 00:14:44,490 --> 00:14:47,010 S2: a big victory for the Greens. It's been much more 261 00:14:47,010 --> 00:14:52,450 S2: interesting in terms of the teal contests and in that 262 00:14:52,490 --> 00:14:57,130 S2: previously safe Liberal seat of Bradfield in Sydney. Nicolette Buller 263 00:14:57,130 --> 00:15:00,410 S2: has won that seat. It's a, you know, shocking defeat 264 00:15:00,410 --> 00:15:04,050 S2: for the liberals and it just highlights this teal trend. 265 00:15:04,050 --> 00:15:06,930 S2: So I can't say I was surprised by that because 266 00:15:07,090 --> 00:15:10,410 S2: I'd been watching that seat really with a lot of interest, 267 00:15:10,410 --> 00:15:12,450 S2: and I thought there was a chance that Nicolette Buller 268 00:15:12,450 --> 00:15:15,850 S2: could do it. But to see it actually happen and 269 00:15:15,850 --> 00:15:17,690 S2: continue that trend is really something. 270 00:15:17,730 --> 00:15:21,970 S1: What about Dickson? Paul? What happened for Peter Dutton? I mean, 271 00:15:22,170 --> 00:15:24,890 S1: it's been several elections now when labor has sort of 272 00:15:24,930 --> 00:15:27,530 S1: said that Dickson's in contention and that Dutton might lose 273 00:15:27,530 --> 00:15:28,970 S1: his seat. There was a lot of talk of that 274 00:15:29,010 --> 00:15:31,650 S1: sort of two elections ago, but this time it actually happened. 275 00:15:31,650 --> 00:15:32,729 S1: It's quite stunning. 276 00:15:32,770 --> 00:15:35,330 S4: Yeah, labor had been talking about this for weeks now. 277 00:15:35,490 --> 00:15:38,310 S4: They've been doing big fundraising drives, saying to people around 278 00:15:38,310 --> 00:15:40,830 S4: the country, donate because we think we can beat Peter Dutton. 279 00:15:41,030 --> 00:15:43,270 S4: Albanese spent the first day of the campaign on, I 280 00:15:43,270 --> 00:15:46,270 S4: think it's March 29th, in Dickson, and then he swung 281 00:15:46,270 --> 00:15:48,670 S4: through in one of the final days. There was a 282 00:15:48,670 --> 00:15:50,670 S4: lot of talk at the start of the campaign about 283 00:15:50,670 --> 00:15:54,190 S4: this being an Albanese mind game. He does like political 284 00:15:54,190 --> 00:15:56,790 S4: games and getting in the heads of his opponents. He 285 00:15:56,790 --> 00:15:59,350 S4: at the time said he really believed it was on 286 00:15:59,390 --> 00:16:02,110 S4: the on the brink of falling. Even his colleagues didn't 287 00:16:02,110 --> 00:16:05,390 S4: really believe him. But there's been a huge swing against 288 00:16:05,390 --> 00:16:08,990 S4: the Liberal Party across or the LNP in Queensland. In 289 00:16:09,030 --> 00:16:12,030 S4: seats like Bonner, there were huge swings. Various other suburban 290 00:16:12,030 --> 00:16:14,150 S4: seats where labor had been putting in a lot of 291 00:16:14,150 --> 00:16:17,110 S4: resources into in the last year or two, particularly led 292 00:16:17,110 --> 00:16:19,110 S4: by Murray Watt and Jim Chalmers, to build the brand 293 00:16:19,110 --> 00:16:21,510 S4: back there and in the city of Brisbane as well. 294 00:16:21,510 --> 00:16:23,710 S4: There were big swings, as we just mentioned, to the 295 00:16:23,750 --> 00:16:27,510 S4: to labor from the Greens. But in terms of Dickson itself, 296 00:16:27,670 --> 00:16:29,550 S4: it's hard to know about local factors. There was a 297 00:16:29,550 --> 00:16:33,270 S4: new teal independent, Ali Smith, who was really heavily backed 298 00:16:33,270 --> 00:16:37,570 S4: by climate. 201 13.1% of the primary vote at this 299 00:16:37,570 --> 00:16:41,210 S4: stage of counting. Dutton has lost 8% of his primary. 300 00:16:41,210 --> 00:16:43,810 S4: At this stage, Labor's only up two and a half, 301 00:16:43,810 --> 00:16:47,650 S4: so the Independent clearly caused Dutton problems. Huge amounts of 302 00:16:47,650 --> 00:16:50,970 S4: money spent by labor and the climate, 200 independent and 303 00:16:50,970 --> 00:16:55,330 S4: lots and lots of labor ministers and MPs and party 304 00:16:55,370 --> 00:16:58,170 S4: heavyweights swung through Dixon to get to gain momentum there. 305 00:16:58,170 --> 00:17:01,810 S4: So perhaps the voters of Dixon when the when the 306 00:17:01,850 --> 00:17:04,489 S4: when the heat. Really. Well I don't want to go 307 00:17:04,490 --> 00:17:07,609 S4: too far there but when, when they maybe really thought 308 00:17:07,650 --> 00:17:11,290 S4: thought about Dutton as their candidate in a really high 309 00:17:11,290 --> 00:17:14,330 S4: profile race where it actually looked like there was a 310 00:17:14,330 --> 00:17:17,409 S4: chance of flipping it, maybe they saw something, something they 311 00:17:17,410 --> 00:17:17,930 S4: didn't like. 312 00:17:17,970 --> 00:17:20,890 S1: Yeah, I'm not sure how much people were tuned into this, 313 00:17:20,890 --> 00:17:22,850 S1: but certainly he was asked, I think in the last 314 00:17:22,850 --> 00:17:25,090 S1: debate if he or he was asked recently if he 315 00:17:25,130 --> 00:17:27,050 S1: would be happy to have a nuclear reactor in his 316 00:17:27,050 --> 00:17:30,129 S1: own electorate, and he said yes. So I don't know 317 00:17:30,130 --> 00:17:33,939 S1: if that was that was something that people were tuned into. 318 00:17:33,980 --> 00:17:37,859 S1: Let's just talk quickly about the coalition. Paul. Peter Dutton 319 00:17:37,859 --> 00:17:41,180 S1: took total responsibility for the loss. But I mean, what's 320 00:17:41,180 --> 00:17:43,740 S1: your sense of what happened? Was it was it his fault? 321 00:17:43,740 --> 00:17:47,540 S1: Was it. Was it miscommunication with the with campaign HQ? 322 00:17:47,580 --> 00:17:49,820 S1: Was it the fact that he just went off piste 323 00:17:50,140 --> 00:17:53,260 S1: and did his own thing and didn't listen to the party? Um, 324 00:17:53,740 --> 00:17:55,659 S1: the party elders. What was it? 325 00:17:56,140 --> 00:17:59,740 S4: It's it's there's so many factors that make it complex. 326 00:17:59,740 --> 00:18:02,900 S4: And so it's clearly deep and structural. The problem in 327 00:18:02,900 --> 00:18:05,900 S4: the party to blame any one breakdown in communication or 328 00:18:05,900 --> 00:18:10,620 S4: relationship or attitude in a certain, um, cohort of his 329 00:18:10,619 --> 00:18:13,899 S4: staffing unit just seems simplistic. I mean, the party, the 330 00:18:13,900 --> 00:18:17,900 S4: party's broken. Um, they've had three years in a cost 331 00:18:17,900 --> 00:18:21,379 S4: of living crisis to develop an economic narrative, have totally 332 00:18:21,380 --> 00:18:24,580 S4: failed to do so and have gone backwards on an 333 00:18:24,580 --> 00:18:28,260 S4: already record low primary vote with a deeply unpopular prime 334 00:18:28,260 --> 00:18:33,080 S4: minister in Scott Morrison. So it's the recriminations will be 335 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:37,400 S4: really severe. There'll be huge questions directed towards the pollster 336 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,520 S4: Mike Turner at Freshwater, because there's been a sense in 337 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,080 S4: the party, a real sense. I don't think a fake 338 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:47,400 S4: false spin sense that their internal polling was better than 339 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,200 S4: the national polling and that this result would not play out. 340 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,439 S4: So there'll be huge questions about why that didn't play out. 341 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:57,080 S4: The strategy of not dealing in the same way as 342 00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:00,240 S4: most political leaders in the past, with mainstream press throughout 343 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,320 S4: the term, and focusing the strategy towards two GB and 344 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,520 S4: Sky news, as David has written about extensively, will also 345 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:10,240 S4: come under severe question after just a quick point to 346 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,600 S4: finish off after the 22 result. They were in the 347 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,360 S4: mid 50s in terms of seats. Their primary vote was 348 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,080 S4: really low under Dutton for a period, but the party 349 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:22,200 S4: was galvanised by the voice referendum. It lifted them off 350 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,000 S4: the floor. It instilled discipline over a year or even more, 351 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,359 S4: which was like a long campaign within the term. And 352 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,220 S4: I think that in part meant that there was no 353 00:19:31,220 --> 00:19:33,740 S4: period of soul searching and real examination of what the 354 00:19:33,740 --> 00:19:37,020 S4: party stood for, its policy agenda, its recruitment of talent, 355 00:19:37,020 --> 00:19:39,660 S4: all those things that make a healthy, vibrant political party. 356 00:19:39,900 --> 00:19:43,220 S4: This result has to force that if it doesn't, it 357 00:19:43,220 --> 00:19:46,220 S4: never will. I mean, labor went through similar periods in 358 00:19:46,220 --> 00:19:49,899 S4: the mid 2000 when Howard kept beating them. They had 359 00:19:49,900 --> 00:19:53,540 S4: another period of reckoning after Bill shorten lost. So this 360 00:19:53,540 --> 00:19:55,540 S4: happens to both sides of politics. But there needs to 361 00:19:55,540 --> 00:19:58,899 S4: be serious, serious examination of the party and what it 362 00:19:58,940 --> 00:20:01,780 S4: what it is. And there has to be over the 363 00:20:01,780 --> 00:20:04,419 S4: next few months or maybe even year, a period where 364 00:20:04,420 --> 00:20:07,500 S4: there's no focus on opinion polling and just focus on 365 00:20:07,700 --> 00:20:10,900 S4: how do we get ourselves to be a governing party again. 366 00:20:11,180 --> 00:20:16,540 S2: The liberals have always done well when they're genuinely a 367 00:20:16,540 --> 00:20:19,540 S2: broad church, to use that old phrase, the phrase is 368 00:20:19,540 --> 00:20:22,700 S2: used so much because it's such a good phrase. They 369 00:20:22,700 --> 00:20:25,740 S2: know that that's how they succeed, and that's not really 370 00:20:25,780 --> 00:20:29,880 S2: the best description of them right now. Well, after this result, 371 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:34,000 S2: they're like a rump. But I think Peter Dutton has 372 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,040 S2: been given a lot of credit for uniting the team 373 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:41,320 S2: and keeping them all together after the 2022 election outcome, 374 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,160 S2: that defeat, and he did keep them united, but he 375 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,920 S2: kept them united by not making them too much of 376 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:53,720 S2: a broad church. He had a, you know, deliberately conservative, um, approach, 377 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,040 S2: very conservative, I think, uh, Liberal Party over the last 378 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,600 S2: couple of years, picking fights on culture wars and woke 379 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,440 S2: agendas and so forth. And maybe that wasn't the way 380 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,159 S2: to succeed. We now see what Australians think about it. 381 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:10,440 S2: So unity came at an incredible cost because they didn't 382 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:14,480 S2: actually have a deep think about their philosophy and their 383 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,679 S2: direction in the last couple of years. And really we 384 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,160 S2: could see that with their policy agenda because it was 385 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,119 S2: relatively thin and it didn't, you know, they complained about 386 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:27,690 S2: the catastrophe facing Australia, and then they came up with 387 00:21:27,730 --> 00:21:29,730 S2: a bit of a damp squib on the policy front 388 00:21:29,730 --> 00:21:32,850 S2: as a solution to that catastrophe. They didn't seem to 389 00:21:32,850 --> 00:21:35,010 S2: have the courage of their convictions on what they were 390 00:21:35,010 --> 00:21:37,850 S2: really fighting for, because I think they hadn't really worked 391 00:21:37,850 --> 00:21:39,490 S2: out what those convictions were. 392 00:21:39,730 --> 00:21:41,450 S1: Yeah. I mean, you've got to conclude that they just 393 00:21:41,650 --> 00:21:44,570 S1: they didn't do any work, really any proper work on policy. 394 00:21:44,609 --> 00:21:47,090 S1: They just they had a lot of time and, and 395 00:21:47,130 --> 00:21:50,250 S1: they didn't use that time. David, you wrote in your 396 00:21:50,250 --> 00:21:54,890 S1: piece tonight that everything at this election has approved the 397 00:21:54,890 --> 00:21:57,370 S1: path ahead will not be easy. So you're not sort 398 00:21:57,369 --> 00:21:59,770 S1: of letting Albanese off the hook? What do you mean 399 00:21:59,770 --> 00:22:00,730 S1: by that, exactly? 400 00:22:01,090 --> 00:22:04,890 S2: Well, I was remembering an interview that we did with 401 00:22:05,090 --> 00:22:09,530 S2: Jim Chalmers last year. Remember this jacket where he asked, 402 00:22:09,570 --> 00:22:11,330 S2: you know, is there going to be an election spendathon. 403 00:22:11,330 --> 00:22:15,290 S2: And he said, no. Well, guess what, there was an election. Spendathon. Right. 404 00:22:15,570 --> 00:22:19,210 S2: They spent a lot. Now they say they're improving government services. 405 00:22:19,210 --> 00:22:21,729 S2: And I think Australians respond to that because they want 406 00:22:21,770 --> 00:22:24,930 S2: a caring government in this global turmoil that looks after 407 00:22:24,930 --> 00:22:28,790 S2: them and delivers services like Medicare. But there's been a 408 00:22:28,790 --> 00:22:33,310 S2: lot of spending going on. There are no budget surpluses 409 00:22:33,310 --> 00:22:38,270 S2: in the foreseeable future. The economy has low productivity, right? 410 00:22:38,950 --> 00:22:40,950 S2: We used to worry about that. We used to be 411 00:22:40,950 --> 00:22:44,750 S2: a nation that actually paid attention to that, paid attention 412 00:22:44,750 --> 00:22:48,629 S2: to economic reform, to tax reform. Are we going to 413 00:22:48,630 --> 00:22:53,910 S2: rediscover that? It could take a majority government that's safe, 414 00:22:54,590 --> 00:22:57,190 S2: that's got a mandate to try and look at some 415 00:22:57,190 --> 00:23:00,910 S2: of these things. It's not an easy job, but somebody's 416 00:23:00,950 --> 00:23:02,510 S2: got to do it. And the time to do it 417 00:23:02,510 --> 00:23:05,990 S2: is when you've got a mandate and a majority. So 418 00:23:06,030 --> 00:23:09,429 S2: I think it's going to be challenging for Anthony Albanese 419 00:23:09,430 --> 00:23:12,430 S2: and for Jim Chalmers, because there's so much that needs doing. 420 00:23:12,670 --> 00:23:15,190 S4: If the big question for the coalition side now is 421 00:23:15,190 --> 00:23:18,870 S4: how do they regenerate if they can regenerate? The big 422 00:23:18,869 --> 00:23:21,670 S4: question for Albanese now is can he be bigger? Can 423 00:23:21,710 --> 00:23:24,930 S4: he be bolder? Can the nature of his government change. 424 00:23:25,130 --> 00:23:28,409 S4: One of his long time close friends said to me 425 00:23:28,410 --> 00:23:31,050 S4: the other day that if he wins with a majority, 426 00:23:31,410 --> 00:23:35,050 S4: he'll be extremely vindicated and proud of what he's just achieved. 427 00:23:35,050 --> 00:23:38,409 S4: And he showed that with his emotion tonight. But he'll also, 428 00:23:38,410 --> 00:23:40,730 S4: according to this person, go into what he described as 429 00:23:40,730 --> 00:23:44,010 S4: legacy mode, where he'll be thinking not just about how 430 00:23:44,010 --> 00:23:46,650 S4: to get another win. Although another win would be fantastic. 431 00:23:46,850 --> 00:23:49,570 S4: He'll be thinking about how does he go out having 432 00:23:49,609 --> 00:23:52,409 S4: achieved big reforms now, and he'll want to do a 433 00:23:52,410 --> 00:23:54,610 S4: couple of things that mark him out, not just as 434 00:23:54,609 --> 00:23:58,210 S4: someone who's won two successive elections to be the first 435 00:23:58,210 --> 00:24:01,330 S4: person after John Howard, but how he's done that and 436 00:24:01,330 --> 00:24:04,210 S4: done big things. And he even though he's done some 437 00:24:04,210 --> 00:24:07,370 S4: creditable things and he calls himself a reformer, even his 438 00:24:07,369 --> 00:24:11,090 S4: colleagues think the last term was far from ideal, far 439 00:24:11,090 --> 00:24:14,730 S4: from big enough, far from long term, enough in its thinking. 440 00:24:15,250 --> 00:24:18,850 S4: So can he reach to change the GST deal and 441 00:24:18,850 --> 00:24:22,010 S4: do proper tax reform, a big new social program? Who 442 00:24:22,010 --> 00:24:23,939 S4: knows what that might be, but can he change the 443 00:24:23,940 --> 00:24:26,260 S4: nature of the government and be bigger and bolder, or 444 00:24:26,260 --> 00:24:28,260 S4: be the big question and the big pressure point on him? 445 00:24:28,300 --> 00:24:30,260 S1: I'm sure we'll gather again to talk about that in 446 00:24:30,260 --> 00:24:32,740 S1: the not too distant future. It's very late. You guys 447 00:24:32,740 --> 00:24:34,899 S1: have been up all day. You've done an amazing job. 448 00:24:34,900 --> 00:24:38,700 S1: Thank you for coming and talking and what a fascinating result. 449 00:24:38,740 --> 00:24:39,980 S1: Long live democracy. 450 00:24:40,980 --> 00:24:42,420 S4: Thanks to you guys. All turn. Bye. 451 00:24:42,460 --> 00:24:43,100 S2: Thanks, Paul. 452 00:24:45,619 --> 00:24:49,820 S1: Today's episode was produced by Julia Katzel. Our executive producer 453 00:24:49,820 --> 00:24:52,900 S1: is Tammy Mills, and Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. 454 00:24:53,700 --> 00:24:55,900 S1: To listen to our episodes as soon as they drop, 455 00:24:55,900 --> 00:24:59,500 S1: follow Inside Politics on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you 456 00:24:59,500 --> 00:25:02,860 S1: listen to your podcasts. To stay up to date with 457 00:25:02,859 --> 00:25:06,340 S1: all the election coverage and exclusives, visit The Age and 458 00:25:06,340 --> 00:25:10,500 S1: The Sydney Morning Herald websites. To support our journalism, subscribe 459 00:25:10,500 --> 00:25:17,460 S1: to us by visiting The Age or. Subscribe. I'm Jacqueline Maley. 460 00:25:17,500 --> 00:25:18,580 S1: Thank you for listening.