S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
S1: This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Monday,
S1: May 5th. Anthony Albanese has defied the so-called incumbency curse
S1: and made history with his astonishing landslide over the weekend.
S1: But as they say in politics, that's nice. What's next?
S1: Might he finally tackle big reform, perhaps try and solve
S1: our housing crisis, which has been generations in the making?
S1: And what else might he have in his sights? Today,
S1: chief political correspondent David Crowe and senior economics correspondent Shane
S1: Wright on whether Anthony Albanese will avoid a common mistake
S1: made by previous prime ministers who, like him, enjoyed a
S1: gargantuan win that nobody saw coming, and what he plans
S1: to do not just in his second term as prime minister,
S1: but a third. So first of all, welcome David Crowe
S1: and Shane Wright. You've both had very, very big nights
S1: and yet you're here with us. So we have to
S1: say thank you.
S2: Thanks for having us, Sam. And I've got to say,
S2: it's just so good to be spending even more quality
S2: time with Shane here after all this election.
S3: And we've had to come all the way from Canberra
S3: to be in the same room.
S2: To finally be together.
S1: Exactly. Well I'm appreciative. I'm going to launch right in
S1: because you guys haven't had much sleep. So, Shane, right
S1: before recording, you told me that what we saw on
S1: Saturday was a political first in Australian history, where, of course,
S1: we saw a first term government increase its vote share
S1: or seat count at the end of its first term.
S1: So were you surprised? Were you shocked.
S3: If I saw a unicorn on, uh, on Saint George's
S3: Terrace in Perth? That would be about the similarity of
S3: my surprise as seeing this result. I thought, wow, the
S3: number of people trying to find people who said, ah, yeah,
S3: I think Anthony Albanese will increase his vote. He'll increase
S3: his margin into the high 80s, if maybe not 90 seats.
S3: He'll lift the Senate vote of the Labor Labour Party.
S3: Peter Dutton will lose his seat. There'll be more Nats
S3: in seats in Victoria than there are Liberal MPs at
S3: this stage. I would have said what colour was the
S3: unicorn like? That's how that's how surprising this is.
S2: And we've all been cautious since 2019 about projecting too much.
S2: And in a way, you've got to let the campaign
S2: play out and not spend too much of the campaign
S2: treating it like a race call. But our polling showed
S2: that the Labour primary was up, and that Labour had
S2: done really well during the campaign. And the Resolve Political
S2: Monitor that we published had Labour on a two party
S2: preferred of 53.5. You'd have to say they exceeded expectations,
S2: including their own expectations, because some of their own people
S2: weren't expecting it to be this good.
S1: Okay, so so we know this is absolutely astonishing. I
S1: just heard this morning that Albaneses two party preferred vote
S1: as of Sunday morning. You know, he's beaten the two
S1: party preferred vote of Kevin Rudd. Bob Hawke, Whitlam, Chifley
S1: like beat them all. So absolutely unbelievable.
S3: We are back to John Curtin's astounding victory in 1943.
S3: So that was and that is still the the high
S3: water mark of the ALP. What happened in 1943? Yep.
S3: So yeah. Unicorn sighting again.
S1: Unicorn sighting again. Okay. So briefly, I just want to
S1: ask each of you before we look to what this
S1: all means for the future of labor, the future of
S1: the country. Why? Why have we seen this unicorn yet again?
S1: Let's go to you first.
S2: Well, I don't think we should overlook the fact that
S2: Australian households have been really suffering over the cost of
S2: living and living standards for three years. Labor saw this,
S2: knew they had to do something about it, and prepared
S2: what they called the forward offer, which is let's not
S2: campaign about the last three years, because that's what Peter
S2: Dutton did. Let's talk to Australians about what we're going
S2: to do next. And that began at the beginning of
S2: this year. They ended last year knowing that this was
S2: going to be their plan. They invested in Medicare, in
S2: urgent care clinics. They had some school deals with the states,
S2: some hospital deals with the states. They did a tax
S2: cut in the budget. Um, step by step. They told households,
S2: this is what we're doing to help you. Energy bill relief,
S2: for example. And when you look at it now, you
S2: can see clearly they caught the coalition napping because the
S2: coalition matched some of this. Then block the tax cuts,
S2: which was strategically a big mistake. But labor were moving
S2: ahead of the coalition on addressing the problems of families.
S2: They also offered big commitments on the quality of government
S2: services and of course, a lot of external events. The cyclone,
S2: to a certain extent, but mainly Donald Trump, um, loomed
S2: over the campaign, raised this question of global uncertainty, and
S2: Albanese was presenting himself as a safe leader who could
S2: deliver services that households needed, was acting on the cost
S2: of living, and was the best answer in an incredibly
S2: volatile time.
S3: I think, um, we've seen it that the reserve Bank
S3: cut in interest rates in February is a sign that's important,
S3: but I think I actually think the Liberal Party is
S3: one of their problems was made last year, and it's
S3: about Donald Trump. It's hard to avoid that aspect. And
S3: we knew as soon as this is a president saying
S3: I'm going to increase tariffs, he was absolutely clear about it.
S3: And you've tied yourself not economically, but you've tied yourself
S3: culturally to Donald Trump. And that is as our polling
S3: has been showing for Yonks, Donald Trump does not rate
S3: very particularly well. It was an own goal that they
S3: should have been able to think through further out that
S3: this was going to be a problem.
S1: And Kroie, I really want to turn to the Labour
S1: Party now. So our colleague James Massola, he revealed the
S1: other day that Anthony Albanese said he's already planning on
S1: how to win a third term, that he's already begun
S1: thinking about policies and strategies to secure that. So I'd
S1: love your opinion. What might this mean for what he
S1: plans for his second term? Like, does this mean that
S1: he's likely to play it safe again with small target achievements?
S1: Or could it be the opposite that, you know this
S1: is Labor's time to to go bold?
S2: I think it will be about playing it safe. Um,
S2: and I think there'll be some merit to that. I
S2: say this as I drink a coffee from Bar Italia,
S2: and a very strong coffee from the western inner west
S2: of Sydney, where Anthony Albanese appeared on Sunday morning.
S1: That's right. So you were with him while he was
S1: doling out ice cream, I believe.
S2: Yeah, because he did a he did a, a moment
S2: on the Sunday morning after the election where he, the
S2: cameras were there. He was having a coffee with mates,
S2: served some ice cream at the counter. Um, didn't give
S2: a lot away. He didn't hold a doorstop where he
S2: waxed eloquently about his agenda for the term ahead.
S1: But did you think he would?
S2: Uh. I think he's going to take it slowly. I
S2: think there'll be some moments in Canberra in the week
S2: ahead where he kind of talks about what he wants
S2: to do. But I know from talking to the people
S2: around him that it's not about taking any Australian voters
S2: by surprise. They have got drilled into them that they
S2: are not going to do things that they didn't take
S2: to the election. So when we talk about bold reform,
S2: it can't mean a tax. White paper next month with
S2: a tax reform investigation that leads to recommendations. I think
S2: there's a possibility where some of that happens and is
S2: kind of canvassed during the term. But I think that
S2: in the same way that some of the decisions in
S2: the first term were contingent on the election, um, the
S2: scenario for reform is to flesh out some ideas during
S2: the term that's just about to start, and then seek
S2: a mandate at the subsequent election. But they would be
S2: extremely cautious about what they're going to do because it's
S2: taking on iconic importance for Anthony Albanese that he doesn't
S2: break faith.
S3: We've seen what happens when a party comes out with
S3: policy at the very last moment, and the work from
S3: home policy, for example, from the Liberal Party, which came
S3: from nowhere. For most people, the absolute dangers of trying
S3: to foist something on right at the last minute.
S2: For instance, just quickly, if the Productivity Commission or somebody
S2: else says, oh, and let's change negative gearing, that's something
S2: that needs to happen. Or capital gains tax on the
S2: family home or whatever. Well, that's a non-starter, right? So
S2: it's just not going to fly. His position on that
S2: is quite clear. He's made clear commitments in the election campaign.
S2: So there are there's a reform agenda. But there are
S2: some things that are clearly not on.
S3: Which we saw with the personal income tax cuts, which
S3: says we're not going to change them, but then they've
S3: come up with a way to keep them in spirit.
S3: Everyone got a tax cut.
S4: So do you think this is what.
S1: Australians want now? Is this what they've signalled to the
S1: Labor Party? You know, we don't want big social progress
S1: from you. We don't want that anymore. We want what
S1: you've offered us now. We want you in the middle.
S1: You know, they've cemented the middle. This is what we
S1: think Albanese will do in the next term, and maybe
S1: even in the third.
S2: And they want stability because this is the the huge
S2: outcome here. We've had a series of one term prime ministers.
S2: Scott Morrison came in and then served one term. These
S2: one term prime ministers haven't been able to cement reform.
S2: Julia Gillard talked about a price on carbon. She was gone.
S2: And then the reform was swept away. And Anthony Albanese
S2: has often said you've got to cement the reform. That's
S2: the agenda here, not just to make announcements and take
S2: people by surprise, but to cement reform in a steady way.
S2: So Australians voted for stability after the, you know, chopping
S2: and changing of the last 20 years. And that's what
S2: they're I think, going to get. Um, Anthony Albanese gains
S2: great confidence out of this election result. He doesn't have
S2: a mandate for a specific thing that he took to
S2: the election in a dramatic way, like a GST in 1998.
S2: But he's got this confidence. I think it'll help on
S2: the international front with Donald Trump. Donald Trump likes winners.
S2: Anthony Albanese is now a certified winner. And so he
S2: goes into international relations and the domestic agenda with that
S2: sense of confidence.
S3: I'm thinking the danger, of course, is hubris and of
S3: because what he has done back to the unicorns. He's
S3: got a paddock full of them. He's in terms of
S3: what he's achieved and it's weather like. I think this
S3: actually played into the the problem with the first term
S3: and his speech on election night, which is the voice. Ah.
S1: And he made that grand promise.
S3: He made the grand.
S1: Promise.
S3: On which and the voters said, oh, Nick, off.
S1: They did.
S3: They. Absolutely. And so that is always I keep thinking
S3: of 93, the 93 election which Keating won. And no
S3: one thought that was going to happen. And that within
S3: within 3 or 4 weeks, the true believers were having
S3: a special dance in the Great Hall that went down
S3: like a bucket of cold sick. And because the papers
S3: at the time were saying, oh, this election result, it
S3: gives Keating another, it gives him two terms. That's the
S3: absolute danger for every politician. John Howard would always talk
S3: about the dangers of being hubristic.
S1: But I wanted to pick up something that you just
S1: mentioned a bit earlier, which is you said that, you know,
S1: the lesson Albanese would have learnt here is you are
S1: not going to spring anything new on the voters. But
S1: what about the long standing problems that we know that
S1: aliens far and wide have been concerned about for Yonks,
S1: which of course, is, you know, the housing crisis, which
S1: is decades in the making, not to mention this outstanding
S1: issue of indigenous representation. Might those be picked up at
S1: some point, or are they just going to be left
S1: in the dust and just, you know, continue for that
S1: frustration to be building?
S2: I guess they have to act on housing and they've
S2: got to deliver. They actually put forward some really interesting
S2: ideas on housing supply. A $10 billion. Loan and grants program,
S2: mainly for the states, but also for private developers to
S2: add housing for first home buyers. Now, when I talk
S2: to some housing experts, these are non-aligned academics. They said
S2: that on balance, the labor programs on housing supply were better.
S2: I'm not saying that's the magic solution on every front,
S2: but they've actually got some agendas here where it's all
S2: about delivery. Now. It's about proving that they can add
S2: 1.2 million homes to housing supply, as they've promised, doing
S2: everything they possibly can to do that, which also means
S2: reducing the cost of building materials and increasing the supply
S2: of building workers. So it's about execution. We don't need
S2: a whole bunch of committees reviewing things. They just have
S2: to act on what they've said they're going to do.
S1: Right.
S3: And I reckon you'll see, because we know there's about
S3: 28,000 of their social homes that are under construction or
S3: in planning. I think I'll put money on it now.
S3: Kroie that anyone covering the Prime Minister over the next
S3: three years is going to spend a lot of time
S3: at new housing sites when they're opened to reinforce that point, saying, right,
S3: here are the homes they are being built.
S1: We're going to see you in a high vis vest,
S1: is what I'm seeing.
S3: We're going to see this. And a hard hat. Yeah,
S3: I can see that coming.
S1: Okay. And oh sorry.
S2: Mate. You know, he made a point in his election
S2: night speech of doing a couple of really simple things
S2: that I think are important and effective. He thanked voters.
S2: You know, he just said a simple thank you. He said,
S2: I won't take this for granted. Um, I'll, uh, you know,
S2: you've put your trust in, in us. And I give
S2: you this solemn pledge to to act on that. So
S2: it's about the execution. At this point, I think they've
S2: got an issue with spending because they've promised a lot
S2: in the campaign. And as we've all reported on in
S2: the budget on March 25th, they didn't really, you know,
S2: allow any major savings. There was some redirection of funding,
S2: but they didn't they didn't do enough work, in my view,
S2: to really save money and produce a better budget. Bottom line.
S2: They've announced a lot in the campaign that puts money
S2: out the door. That then does mean that the agenda
S2: in this term has got to be about being really
S2: careful with that. They might get lucky on the commodities
S2: side and on the revenue side and the budget bottom line,
S2: and the outlook may improve over time, but there's going
S2: to have to be, I think, a hard look at
S2: the spending side of the budget. Um, now that they've
S2: got so much on the table which hasn't been rolled
S2: out yet, you know, it's yet yet to be rolled out,
S2: for instance, on Medicare. Um, and then, um, find some
S2: savings to help improve things over the next three years.
S1: So do you reckon this is going to be a
S1: very brief honeymoon period before reality hits them in the face?
S3: Yes.
S2: Yeah, it could be because Anthony Albanese actually had quite
S2: a long honeymoon in the polls after the 2022 election.
S2: Then the Voice started, then the tough living standards really
S2: started to bite and then it evaporated.
S1: I know we've spoken a little bit about that. You know,
S1: they've got to be very careful. Albanese has to be
S1: very careful not to exhibit hubris in this moment, like
S1: we've seen with previous winners. And I wanted to ask you,
S1: I guess, whether we actually might be finding that we're
S1: in a period of greater kindness or an emphasis on
S1: that in our political sphere, because we heard, I think,
S1: a lot of humility over the last couple of days.
S1: You know, we heard it from Jim Chalmers on election night.
S1: It was looking like they were going to win and
S1: he was very cautious about that. And then, of course,
S1: in Anthony Albanese's acceptance speech, he made a marked point
S1: of shushing his own supporters when they were booing Peter Dutton.
S2: And the interesting moment, those personal moments are really interesting,
S2: aren't they?
S1: And then on Sunday morning, we've seen Albanese come out
S1: and I think he said, I feel for Peter. So
S1: I'm just wondering, do you think that we might see
S1: greater kindness? You know.
S2: I think it's part of his brand or something that
S2: they want to continue to be part of his message.
S2: I talked to one of the cabinet ministers who made
S2: a point about Anthony Albanese, in her view, actually being
S2: a kind person. Now, I know that one of the
S2: quotes in the nine debate that stood out because three
S2: women mentioned it to me, unprompted, mentioned this quote, kindness
S2: is not weakness. That was Anthony Albanese's quote in the
S2: channel nine debate against Peter Dutton. And that sank in,
S2: I think, with voters. And so I think that's going
S2: to be part of who he is as prime minister. Now,
S2: whether that is maintained is another question. Can he be
S2: the person who turns the boats around, while also being
S2: the prime minister, who says kindness is not weakness? Lots
S2: of contradictions because it's not an easy job. However, um,
S2: that is something that I think we'll see more of.
S3: I'm not expecting anyone getting out a guitar, sitting around
S3: a fire and singing Kumbaya anytime. That is not the
S3: story of Australian politics. Menzies was hard. Holt was hard.
S3: Whitlam was hard. Hawke played hard. Keating, Howard like he
S3: he gave across that air. But he was tough. Tough
S3: as nails.
S2: And Albanese settled scores inside the labor movement because the
S2: labor movement is a tough, tough place.
S3: It is so.
S2: And when he was asked what to name a song
S2: and have a song played on radio. Sorry, Shane, I'm
S2: talking over the top of you. But when he was
S2: asked this in the recent days, he nominated the angels.
S2: Am I ever going to see your face again? Which
S2: has a famous refrain with a chant from the crowd
S2: with a couple of F-bombs, and it was pretty clear
S2: he was aiming that at Peter Dutton. So there's a,
S2: you know, a mix of a bit of sympathy, but
S2: a real hard line as well.
S3: More sympathy for the devil. To quote the Rolling Stones. Yeah.
S3: But yeah, that's why no, I, I love that you
S3: you you believe in this, Sam. And I was just
S3: wondering a bit of kindness in the air, you know?
S3: But once he get like, he. As he said on
S3: Saturday night, you know, we're back to work. That's back
S3: to work. Like he is going to continue to fight
S3: what he believes in. And yeah, he he may dress
S3: it up as kindly, but it's not.
S2: Mind you, if he fights and he reverts to sort
S2: of fighting only on labor terms, to labor people, to
S2: the labor base. He'll be making the same mistake that
S2: Peter Dutton made. And I think given the election outcome,
S2: he doesn't seem inclined to make Peter Dutton's mistakes.
S3: Yes.
S1: Well, gentlemen, an absolutely fascinating election. And so lucky to
S1: have both of your viewpoints on this. So thank you
S1: so much, Shane and David, for your time.
S3: Thank you Samantha.
S2: Thank you. Great to talk again.
S1: Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by myself,
S1: Josh towers and Tammy Mills. Tom McKendrick is our head
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