WEBVTT - Trump's shock South Korea decision

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<v S1>We know that Donald Trump has made a habit out

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<v S1>of rewarding dictators and throwing off the shackles of long

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<v S1>standing relationships with allies. But even for him, the last

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<v S1>few days have been explosive. I'm Samantha Zellinger Maurice, and

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<v S1>you're listening to The Morning Edition from The Age and

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<v S1>The Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international and political editor Peter

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<v S1>Hartcher on Donald Trump's latest appeasement of North Korean dictator

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<v S1>Kim Jong UN and the threats he's issued to Oman.

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<v S1>It's August the 20th. Peter, welcome back to the podcast.

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<v S2>Pleasure to be here, Samantha.

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<v S1>Okay. Well, I guess we're going to have to start

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<v S1>with the latest threats first. Why has Donald Trump threatened

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<v S1>to bomb Oman?

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<v S2>Well, there are particular technical, specific reasons, but if I

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<v S2>can offer an amateur psychological explanation of Trump and the

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<v S2>situation he's in, I'd say it's because he's like a

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<v S2>trapped beast who is cornered. He can't get out of

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<v S2>this trap that he's made for himself by Fecklessly entering

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<v S2>this war without a workable strategy or a functional exit plan.

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<v S2>And he hates it. And when he's trapped, he thrashes

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<v S2>around and lashes out. And that's exactly what he's done

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<v S2>in this case.

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<v S3>With ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz and talks

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<v S3>dead in the water. President Trump Monday took aim not

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<v S3>at Iran, but longtime U.S. ally Oman, which shares the

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<v S3>strait and has been negotiating control of the waterway with

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<v S3>the regime.

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<v S4>This morning, the president tells Fox News, and I'm quoting

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<v S4>the president right now, listen to this. If Oman gets

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<v S4>in the way, we'll bomb the shit out of them.

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<v S4>Those are the president's words.

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<v S2>So he's blaming Oman, which is not an aggressor or

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<v S2>an opponent. In fact, since 1980, the US military has

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<v S2>been using military bases, Omani military bases. They've been an

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<v S2>ally of the US in recent weeks and months. They've

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<v S2>been important as a mediator in between the US. On

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<v S2>the one hand, US Israel on the one hand and

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<v S2>Iran on the other. So it's a strange choice of

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<v S2>target to say, um, or at least in conventional logic

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<v S2>and functional statecraft, to say that my ally and my

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<v S2>vital interlocutor and intermediary here, I'm going to blow the

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<v S2>shit out of you. It's it's not conventional. Um, shall we,

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<v S2>shall we say.

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<v S1>To say the least? I mean, certainly other analysts have

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<v S1>called it shocking.

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<v S2>Well, it's it's just, it's just counterproductive. It's as, it's

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<v S2>as simple as that. You're already having trouble with your enemy,

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<v S2>your chosen enemy, Iran. Why would you also want to

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<v S2>alienate your communication channel with that enemy? It's bafflingly bad,

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<v S2>but it's no worse than many of Trump's other strategic

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<v S2>and diplomatic fumbles and disasters. And it's also consistent with

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<v S2>the pattern we've seen from him from the very beginning,

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<v S2>which is that he is always keen to do favors

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<v S2>for America's traditional enemies, dictators and autocrats. But he's always

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<v S2>anxious at any opportunity to attack America's allies and friends,

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<v S2>which of course, degrades America's greatest single advantage in in

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<v S2>in the world, in geopolitics. America's greatest single advantage isn't

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<v S2>the size of its budget or the size of its

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<v S2>population or its geography. It's the fact that it has

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<v S2>an unparalleled set of some 40 allies, including almost all

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<v S2>the wealthy democracies on earth, and Trump just continues to

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<v S2>damage that, degrade that priceless US asset, and willfully hand

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<v S2>power over to America's enemies. It is unrelenting. It is counterproductive.

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<v S2>And it's just baffling.

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<v S1>And it's seemingly continuous, too, because let's move on to

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<v S1>Asia because in the last few days alone, we've seen

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<v S1>some of Trump's moves there, which just exemplify what you've

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<v S1>just been talking about. Because not only has the US

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<v S1>pulled its last aircraft carrier out of Asia, but Donald

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<v S1>Trump also ordered the Pentagon to scale back on joint

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<v S1>military exercises with South Korea also a vital American ally.

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<v S1>So I guess, can you walk us through the significance

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<v S1>of both of these decisions, Peter.

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<v S2>Well, let's take the aircraft carrier redeployment first. In 1996,

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<v S2>there was a crisis where it appeared that China was

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<v S2>about to take military action, perhaps a full scale invasion

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<v S2>of Taiwan. The US responded in 96 by sending two

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<v S2>aircraft carrier battle groups to stand off the Taiwan Strait

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<v S2>as a deterrent and a warning to Beijing. Now, if

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<v S2>there were a similar crisis tomorrow, and of course, that's

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<v S2>an unresolved bit of business. According to the People's Republic

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<v S2>of China, and XI Jinping in particular has said it's

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<v S2>the burden of his generation. In other words, his tenure

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<v S2>as leader to take control of Taiwan. If there were

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<v S2>a similar crisis tomorrow. The US has no available aircraft

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<v S2>carrier strike groups because they've just been sent to back

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<v S2>up his failing war in the Middle East. The power

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<v S2>that does have two available aircraft carriers to send to

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<v S2>the Taiwan Straits today is China. China has built and

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<v S2>now operates three aircraft carriers. Two of them operated together

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<v S2>for the first time just a couple of months ago.

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<v S2>So this is a brand new capability that the Chinese

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<v S2>Communist Party now has as an asset, which it can deploy.

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<v S2>And it's an asset which the US has always had.

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<v S2>But today, as of this week, has no longer. And

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<v S2>it's an illustration of how bad strategy in one part

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<v S2>of Trump's world produces knock on consequences that weaken the

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<v S2>US in other parts of the world. And it's consistent

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<v S2>with what's been happening since the beginning of this Iran war,

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<v S2>where the US has drawn down assets from the Indo-Pacific, which,

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<v S2>according to all US doctrine and strategy in recent decades

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<v S2>has been identified as the US's primary sphere, where it

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<v S2>needs to dominate instead. Trump has not only deployed as

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<v S2>we now see aircraft carriers because with the Lincoln, it's

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<v S2>become such a debacle and they need to relieve it

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<v S2>and they need to send relief.

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<v S5>To the Centcom commander, Admiral Bradley Cooper, visiting the USS

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<v S5>Abraham Lincoln in the region following reports of food shortages

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<v S5>and concerns over the mental health of sailors on the ship.

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<v S6>With morale. With exhaustion. I mean, this is an incredibly

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<v S6>long deployment, 268 days. But even more serious than that,

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<v S6>they have not been in port all year, more than

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<v S6>200 days. And that really does put a strain on

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<v S6>those sailors and Marines. I think that's why, Admiral.

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<v S2>So again, you know, one bad piece of management begets

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<v S2>the next fumble. But they've also drawn down vital assets

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<v S2>from Japan Pan and South Korea, US allies, where they've

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<v S2>taken air defense systems out of those countries to send

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<v S2>them to protect US assets in the Gulf against Iran.

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<v S2>And of course, they've run down their stocks of munitions,

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<v S2>and notably Patriot interceptor missiles. And they've taken some from

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<v S2>the Indo Pacific and taken them to Central Command to

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<v S2>feed their war against Iran, which is running. You'll remember

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<v S2>Trump advertise it as a 2 to 4 week war. Well,

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<v S2>it's now five months and counting. So it's yet another

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<v S2>cost that the US pays. But also US allies pay

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<v S2>around the world for Trump's bad strategy and chaotic management.

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<v S2>The second part that you asked about Samantha is the

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<v S2>South Korean part. Again, this is a case study in

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<v S2>Trump harming a US ally to the advantage of a

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<v S2>US enemy, where he's said, on the cusp of the

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<v S2>annual joint exercises between the US and South Korea, its

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<v S2>close U.S. ally since 1950. That he's going to curtail

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<v S2>the size of the exercises as a favor to Kim

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<v S2>Jong un, the North Korean dictator. At the same time,

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<v S2>we learned today that Trump has been seeking meetings with

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<v S2>Kim Jong UN, and for some reason, Trump seems to

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<v S2>think that he's a friend or ally, that Kim Jong

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<v S2>UN is a special pal. We know that in Trump's

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<v S2>first term as president, he described an exchange of love

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<v S2>letters with Kim Jong un. They've said they love each

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<v S2>other in these letters, but in reality, the love has

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<v S2>flowed only one way. At no point has Kim Jong

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<v S2>UN given the US a single concession, not one concession

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<v S2>to Trump and on the contrary, since the first summit

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<v S2>with Trump, North Korea has only redoubled its efforts, built

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<v S2>its nuclear stockpile, improved and strengthened its ballistic and intercontinental

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<v S2>ballistic missile stockpile, and is in a stronger and more

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<v S2>aggressive position than it's been in decades. And Kim Jong

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<v S2>un has specifically renounced the country's long standing aim to

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<v S2>reunite with South Korea, and has said that it's going

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<v S2>to be its confrontation, its war. So how he how

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<v S2>Trump can possibly think this man is an ally is

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<v S2>simply baffling. South Korea, on the other hand, a genuine

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<v S2>ally is now weakened. US commitment to South Korea is

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<v S2>now in doubt. And the message goes out from that

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<v S2>decision to all other US allies that their positions are weakened,

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<v S2>that the US is unreliable. This is again a continuation

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<v S2>of his undercutting of allies in NATO. So this is

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<v S2>no longer just the undermining of NATO and the peculiar

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<v S2>Maga aggression towards Europe as some sort of civilizational faux.

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<v S2>But now also the US allies in the theater, which

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<v S2>it's identified as not only the centrepiece and the larger

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<v S2>single piece of the global economy, but also the greatest

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<v S2>theater of contest for US influence in the world. Over

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<v S2>the course of this century, in what Joe Biden used

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<v S2>to call the contest for the 21st century. Well, if

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<v S2>it's a contest. XI Jinping is winning that one, and

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<v S2>Donald Trump is losing.

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<v S1>After the break.

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<v S2>If there were any justification for doing a favor for

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<v S2>Kim Jong UN, it would be because there was some

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<v S2>meaningful concession coming the other way, from Pyongyang to Washington

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<v S2>or to Seoul. There's no evidence of that whatsoever.

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<v S7>Can you help us, I guess.

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<v S1>Make sense of why Trump in particular, would be wanting

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<v S1>to pull back on these joint exercises with South Korea now?

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<v S1>I mean, do you think is he wanting to possibly

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<v S1>renegotiate or restart negotiations with Kim Jong un to try

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<v S1>to get him to dismantle his nuclear program, which, like

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<v S1>you said, the last time he tried this, if anything,

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<v S1>it backfired enormously because he, like you say, Kim Jong

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<v S1>un redoubled his efforts. I believe he's got something like

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<v S1>60 nukes and missiles that can hit the United States.

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<v S1>Or is it perhaps something else? I mean, is Trump

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<v S1>trying to perhaps just punish South Korea for declining to

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<v S1>join Trump in his war against Iran?

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<v S2>Well, that's a justification that Trump has used, that the

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<v S2>South Koreans refuse to help him with his war in Iran.

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<v S2>But no U.S. ally has agreed to help him with

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<v S2>his war in Iran first because he consulted none of them. Second,

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<v S2>because he launched the war together with Israel as a. Well,

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<v S2>I was going to say unilaterally, but I suppose if

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<v S2>it's with Israel, it's bilateral against the interests and wills

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<v S2>of other US allies. So you can't, you know, fail

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<v S2>to consult them, act against their interests by cutting the

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<v S2>global oil supply and creating an inflation problem for the

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<v S2>planet where there was none before. And then demand that

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<v S2>your allies help you in a strategy which is plainly failing,

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<v S2>and then get angry at them and decline to help them,

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<v S2>and then, in fact, harm their interests after you've treated

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<v S2>them so offhandedly and so badly. So that's his justification.

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<v S2>I don't think it makes any sense, but he has

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<v S2>used that as his justification. So but the question you

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<v S2>ask is why is he is what's what's the real

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<v S2>reason that he's taking this otherwise baffling step? And so, yes,

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<v S2>he is asking Kim Jong un to meet. Presumably he

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<v S2>thinks he can get concessions from Kim Jong un that

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<v S2>he's never been able to get before, despite their three

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<v S2>in-person meetings. And let's take a step back, Samantha. Um,

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<v S2>which of these dictators and traditional US allies has done

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<v S2>Trump any favors? Which of them has cut a serious

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<v S2>concession for the US, for Trump, as Vladimir Putin paid

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<v S2>the least heed to Donald Trump's demands and pleadings and

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<v S2>pressuring us to come to some sort of agreement or

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<v S2>peace deal with Ukraine. No. Has XI Jinping cut Trump

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<v S2>any real or significant concession? He's cut him some token

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<v S2>Concessions on trade, which we know from their previous agreements.

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<v S2>China likely XI Jinping likely will not deliver on. And

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<v S2>Trump is hoping to get some more concessions from him

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<v S2>at their meeting coming up on September 24th. But but no,

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<v S2>XI Jinping in any meaningful sense has not given the

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<v S2>US any concessions and in fact, told the US he

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<v S2>would be cutting off China's flow of rare earth and

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<v S2>critical minerals to the US, which brought Trump to heel.

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<v S2>And Trump had to withdraw his threats of tariffs on China.

0:15:14.570 --> 0:15:18.970
<v S2>So again, no favors to the US there. Has Kim

0:15:18.970 --> 0:15:22.210
<v S2>Jong un done a single favor for Donald Trump or

0:15:22.210 --> 0:15:25.930
<v S2>the US? No, he's done quite the opposite. These are

0:15:25.930 --> 0:15:30.330
<v S2>the people that Donald Trump says he admires and likes,

0:15:30.770 --> 0:15:34.210
<v S2>the people he said he enjoys doing business with. Every

0:15:34.210 --> 0:15:37.050
<v S2>one of them defies him. I mean, sure, in person,

0:15:37.050 --> 0:15:40.530
<v S2>they flatter him, they smile. They tell him what a

0:15:40.530 --> 0:15:43.740
<v S2>great guy he is and continue to work against his

0:15:43.740 --> 0:15:47.020
<v S2>interests and continue to erode US power and influence around

0:15:47.020 --> 0:15:49.540
<v S2>the world. And Trump continues as if he thinks this

0:15:49.540 --> 0:15:53.180
<v S2>is a brilliant strategy, while launching yet more acts of

0:15:53.180 --> 0:15:59.460
<v S2>aggression against his allies, whether that's strategic, diplomatic and military

0:15:59.660 --> 0:16:03.260
<v S2>harm to their interests or it's economic through either the

0:16:03.260 --> 0:16:07.380
<v S2>higher oil price and inflation, or his preoccupation with putting

0:16:07.420 --> 0:16:11.860
<v S2>tariffs on everybody, including countries with whom he has no

0:16:11.860 --> 0:16:16.420
<v S2>trade disputes, and countries which are his notional allies.

0:16:16.980 --> 0:16:19.700
<v S1>It does sound like this is, I guess, from an

0:16:19.700 --> 0:16:23.500
<v S1>onlooker's perspective, an irrational decision of Trump. I mean, I've

0:16:23.500 --> 0:16:27.260
<v S1>heard it described as one writer in The Atlantic said

0:16:27.300 --> 0:16:29.140
<v S1>America and the rest of the world are now witnessing

0:16:29.140 --> 0:16:32.580
<v S1>a public exhibition of narcissistic rage. You know, he's just

0:16:32.620 --> 0:16:35.540
<v S1>sort of kicking out, I guess, at his humiliation over Iran,

0:16:35.540 --> 0:16:37.500
<v S1>which of course, he thought was going to bring him glory.

0:16:37.900 --> 0:16:41.600
<v S1>But I guess let's just ask you about this appeasement

0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.200
<v S1>of Kim Jong un. How dangerous perhaps it could be,

0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:47.760
<v S1>because it does seem a bit nuts that, for lack

0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:51.160
<v S1>of a more nuanced word, that that Trump is pulling

0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:54.480
<v S1>back from these joint exercises with South Korea because it

0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:58.000
<v S1>looks as though North Korea is more threatening than ever. Right?

0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:00.400
<v S1>It used to be a global pariah. Now it's got

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:03.160
<v S1>allies in Russia and China, not to mention the fact

0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:07.520
<v S1>that the North Korean military has become more battlefield ready

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.720
<v S1>as a result of the troops that it's lent to

0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:14.679
<v S1>Russia to use in Ukraine. Apparently, they've become adept at

0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:18.120
<v S1>drone warfare and other sort of modern types of warfare.

0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:22.040
<v S1>So isn't this the exact wrong time, I guess, to

0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.800
<v S1>be appeasing North Korea or to be giving North Korea

0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.960
<v S1>more power? Not to mention the fact that there are

0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:33.720
<v S1>numerous thousands of American soldiers stationed in Korea, right? I mean,

0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:35.720
<v S1>some of them quite close to the DMZ.

0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:41.450
<v S2>Yeah. There are some 30,000 U.S. soldiers who've been there

0:17:41.450 --> 0:17:45.490
<v S2>to help protect South Korea. And remember, the Korean War

0:17:45.530 --> 0:17:48.690
<v S2>has never ended. They have an armistice in place. They

0:17:48.690 --> 0:17:53.210
<v S2>don't have any peace deal. The war technically is still active.

0:17:53.890 --> 0:17:57.570
<v S2>The US has had that presence there to deter North

0:17:57.570 --> 0:18:01.210
<v S2>Korean aggression ever since the end of the Korean War

0:18:01.210 --> 0:18:06.530
<v S2>in 1953. And it's the colloquial way of looking at it.

0:18:06.530 --> 0:18:09.609
<v S2>It's a tripwire to bring the US guaranteed. If the

0:18:09.609 --> 0:18:12.210
<v S2>North Koreans cross the line and trigger the wire, it's

0:18:12.210 --> 0:18:14.850
<v S2>guaranteed to bring the US into the conflict, to protect

0:18:14.850 --> 0:18:20.210
<v S2>its ally, to protect a democratic country where liberty is

0:18:20.250 --> 0:18:25.489
<v S2>valued and a standout in the success of a free

0:18:25.530 --> 0:18:29.409
<v S2>market economy in the last three quarters of a century.

0:18:29.930 --> 0:18:32.209
<v S2>In stark contrast, of course, to North Korea, one of

0:18:32.210 --> 0:18:38.940
<v S2>the most repressive and impoverished dictatorships on the planet. So, yes.

0:18:38.980 --> 0:18:42.500
<v S2>Is there is there if there were any justification for

0:18:42.980 --> 0:18:45.459
<v S2>doing a favor for Kim Jong UN, it would be

0:18:45.460 --> 0:18:49.419
<v S2>because there was some meaningful concession coming the other way

0:18:49.420 --> 0:18:53.500
<v S2>from Pyongyang to Washington or to Seoul. There's no evidence

0:18:53.500 --> 0:18:57.700
<v S2>of that whatsoever. Kim Jong un and his father and grandfather,

0:18:57.740 --> 0:19:01.220
<v S2>the previous leaders, have always wanted the US to ease

0:19:01.220 --> 0:19:05.700
<v S2>back the South Koreans to back off their exercises. Trump

0:19:05.700 --> 0:19:08.940
<v S2>is now doing them that favor without any concession in return.

0:19:09.220 --> 0:19:12.700
<v S2>But Samantha, you've also touched on another reason that this

0:19:12.700 --> 0:19:18.940
<v S2>is such a bad move and such a counterproductive tactic

0:19:19.540 --> 0:19:22.700
<v S2>for the US and its traditional allies, because he's cutting

0:19:22.700 --> 0:19:26.580
<v S2>a favor to another traditional US enemy. And that is

0:19:27.020 --> 0:19:30.540
<v S2>within this is another favor to Russia, to his mate

0:19:30.540 --> 0:19:37.480
<v S2>Vladimir Putin, because if there's military pressure, if the threat

0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:45.760
<v S2>of a us-south Korean resistance against North Korean depredations is lessened,

0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.600
<v S2>it takes pressure off North Korea so that Kim Jong

0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:53.280
<v S2>UN is free to supply more troops to his friend

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.280
<v S2>and ally, Vladimir Putin, to fight the war against Ukraine.

0:19:57.000 --> 0:20:01.080
<v S2>We know from Vladimir Zelensky's address to the nation a

0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:06.159
<v S2>couple of weeks ago, that Ukrainian intelligence found that the

0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:10.359
<v S2>Russians had asked North Korea to supply another 30,000 troops

0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:13.360
<v S2>to help them with their war against Ukraine, which is

0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:16.600
<v S2>enough to feed the Russian meat grinder on the battlefield

0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:19.320
<v S2>for only one month. But it's it's one month more

0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:23.960
<v S2>than Putin would otherwise have. So taking pressure off North

0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:27.400
<v S2>Korea allows Kim Jong un to satisfy that demand more

0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:33.040
<v S2>easily without feeling any threat at home. So once again, again,

0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:36.889
<v S2>a consistent pattern. Over the years, Trump is helping his.

0:20:36.930 --> 0:20:41.210
<v S2>His good friend and mate. A mate who ignores all

0:20:41.250 --> 0:20:44.490
<v S2>of his requests, pressures and demands, completely thumbs his nose

0:20:44.490 --> 0:20:47.890
<v S2>at him and continues to humiliate him. He's doing him

0:20:47.890 --> 0:20:51.170
<v S2>a great favor by. With this action of sending, of

0:20:51.210 --> 0:20:53.969
<v S2>pulling back on the US exercises with South Korea.

0:20:54.450 --> 0:20:56.530
<v S1>It's very difficult to make sense of Peter, but we're

0:20:56.530 --> 0:21:00.090
<v S1>so glad that you've helped us this morning.

0:21:00.850 --> 0:21:03.169
<v S2>In a sane and rational universe. There is no way

0:21:03.170 --> 0:21:05.770
<v S2>to make sense of this, Samantha. All we can do

0:21:05.770 --> 0:21:10.130
<v S2>is is is gasp and gasp and observe.

0:21:10.170 --> 0:21:12.810
<v S1>Yeah. That's right. Thanks, Peter, as always for your time.

0:21:13.530 --> 0:21:14.369
<v S2>Pleasure, Samantha.

0:21:17.890 --> 0:21:21.090
<v S1>In other news today, aviation professionals say that a lack

0:21:21.090 --> 0:21:24.410
<v S1>of available gates at Sydney Airport is forcing planes to

0:21:24.450 --> 0:21:27.330
<v S1>idle on the taxiway after landing as they wait for

0:21:27.330 --> 0:21:31.090
<v S1>a free bay. Burning unnecessary amounts of fuel and holding

0:21:31.090 --> 0:21:36.909
<v S1>up passengers from disembarking. Multinational data business costar has told

0:21:36.910 --> 0:21:39.990
<v S1>its Australian staff to work from the office full time,

0:21:40.350 --> 0:21:45.989
<v S1>following the likes of NAB, Amazon and Dell, and the

0:21:45.990 --> 0:21:50.869
<v S1>Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has raided Wisetech global, founded

0:21:50.869 --> 0:21:54.750
<v S1>by Richard White, in another blow to the logistics software company,

0:21:54.790 --> 0:21:59.390
<v S1>sending its shares plummeting. You can read more at the

0:21:59.430 --> 0:22:09.390
<v S1>age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wang.

0:22:09.590 --> 0:22:12.870
<v S1>Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are

0:22:12.869 --> 0:22:17.590
<v S1>overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like

0:22:17.630 --> 0:22:20.550
<v S1>our show, follow The Morning Edition and leave a review

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<v S1>for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.