1 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:07,640 S1: American President Donald Trump says he is nearly done with 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:11,480 S1: the war in Iran, declaring we will be leaving very soon. 3 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:15,080 S1: His Secretary of state, too, said on Wednesday that he 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:19,600 S1: can see the finish line. This would be significant if 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,600 S1: the Americans were in control of the war. I'm Samantha 6 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,040 S1: Selinger Morris, and you're listening to Morning Edition from the 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:31,360 S1: Age and The Sydney Morning Herald today, international and political 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,960 S1: editor Peter Hartcher on how much power the United States 9 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,320 S1: has leached in only four weeks at war while the 10 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:48,120 S1: Iranian regime is in its element. It's April the 2nd. Peter, 11 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:49,760 S1: welcome back to the podcast. 12 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:51,400 S2: Pleasure to be with you, Samantha. 13 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:53,840 S1: Okay. Well, I'm going to start with a big question. 14 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:58,080 S1: Are the Americans now in a quagmire in Iran? We 15 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,040 S1: know this is a term that the, you know, former 16 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,280 S1: American Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld used in the early 17 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,680 S1: 2000 swearing, of course, that America was not in a 18 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:11,600 S1: quagmire in Iraq, when, of course, that's ultimately what happened. Now, 19 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,560 S1: Trump has just sent thousands of paratroopers to the Middle East, 20 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:16,679 S1: ready to join the US Marines that have already been 21 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,240 S1: sent there. And then, of course, over the weekend, we 22 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,640 S1: saw that the Houthi rebels in Yemen entered the fight 23 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:26,320 S1: launching missiles at Israel. So what say you? Peter? Are 24 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,560 S1: we are we in quagmire territory yet? 25 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,720 S2: Well, and of course, famously, Vietnam, the Vietnam War was 26 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,680 S2: described as a quagmire for the US as well. Well, 27 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:41,600 S2: I think we collectively are not in a military quagmire, 28 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,440 S2: but we collectively the world, are deep in an energy 29 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,080 S2: and economic quagmire now thanks to this war. So we 30 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,080 S2: can say that much. As for the military quagmire that 31 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,440 S2: the US may or may not be in, I think 32 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:57,120 S2: the answer is no, they're not. Partly because Trump has 33 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:02,910 S2: never cogently or consistently defined the aim of this war. Therefore, 34 00:02:02,910 --> 00:02:06,830 S2: he can walk away and just redefine the terms of 35 00:02:06,830 --> 00:02:10,630 S2: victory as he chooses. And you'll remember from the very 36 00:02:10,630 --> 00:02:13,190 S2: first day, he said it could be two days, could 37 00:02:13,190 --> 00:02:16,630 S2: be 4 or 5 weeks, could be regime change, could 38 00:02:16,630 --> 00:02:20,990 S2: be nuclear weapons, could be destroying their navy and so on. 39 00:02:20,990 --> 00:02:26,790 S2: And the roster of possible potential and ever rotating war 40 00:02:26,830 --> 00:02:30,630 S2: aims that we're all now so familiar with. And now 41 00:02:30,630 --> 00:02:34,110 S2: he's redefined regime change several times, most recently in the 42 00:02:34,110 --> 00:02:36,990 S2: last couple of days. He said he's already changed the 43 00:02:36,990 --> 00:02:40,829 S2: regime twice in the last in the last month. So 44 00:02:40,830 --> 00:02:44,110 S2: he can declare that job accomplished, he says, because the 45 00:02:44,110 --> 00:02:46,550 S2: people running around now, he says nobody's ever heard of 46 00:02:46,550 --> 00:02:47,230 S2: them before. 47 00:02:47,630 --> 00:02:49,589 S1: Which is of course, insane. We know. Of course, there 48 00:02:49,590 --> 00:02:52,510 S1: is no regime change. The Theocrats are still in control. 49 00:02:52,669 --> 00:02:55,790 S2: Well, if you think regime change means removing a one 50 00:02:55,830 --> 00:03:00,270 S2: party theocratic dictatorship hell bent on destroying the countries it 51 00:03:00,270 --> 00:03:03,030 S2: describes as the Great Satan being the US and the 52 00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:07,910 S2: little Satan being Israel, then it's still exactly the same regime. 53 00:03:09,230 --> 00:03:13,070 S2: So he has the option of declaring victory, walking away 54 00:03:13,270 --> 00:03:17,870 S2: at any point. It's not that that is the difficult part. 55 00:03:17,910 --> 00:03:21,109 S2: I think the difficult part are the terms on which 56 00:03:21,110 --> 00:03:25,150 S2: he walks out. Now that he, together with Netanyahu, with 57 00:03:25,150 --> 00:03:29,989 S2: the full and willing participation of the Iranian regime, have 58 00:03:29,990 --> 00:03:34,670 S2: now created this enormous shock to the global energy and 59 00:03:34,669 --> 00:03:39,110 S2: economic systems. He's now signaled he's now said explicitly he's 60 00:03:39,110 --> 00:03:41,590 S2: prepared to walk away without fixing it. He said I'm 61 00:03:42,190 --> 00:03:45,350 S2: I can leave without opening the Strait of Hormuz. I'll 62 00:03:45,350 --> 00:03:47,830 S2: leave that to everybody else, I don't care. America doesn't 63 00:03:47,830 --> 00:03:51,590 S2: need the oil. We have our own oil supplies, which 64 00:03:51,590 --> 00:03:55,350 S2: technically is true. Of course, the US technically on a 65 00:03:55,350 --> 00:04:00,110 S2: net basis, has energy independence produce about 106% of their 66 00:04:00,110 --> 00:04:03,020 S2: own needs. The problem is that the price of oil 67 00:04:03,020 --> 00:04:06,260 S2: is fungible. So what happens to the price of a 68 00:04:06,260 --> 00:04:10,140 S2: barrel of Brent in the Strait of Hormuz also affects 69 00:04:10,140 --> 00:04:12,820 S2: the price of a barrel of West Texas crude in 70 00:04:12,820 --> 00:04:15,900 S2: the US. So it's a nonsense that he that he 71 00:04:15,900 --> 00:04:18,539 S2: can somehow insulate the US from this just by walking 72 00:04:18,540 --> 00:04:22,220 S2: away from the war. He cannot. And he's. He's violating. 73 00:04:22,220 --> 00:04:25,380 S2: If he if he does, in fact walk out without 74 00:04:25,860 --> 00:04:30,140 S2: subduing the Iranians and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, then 75 00:04:30,140 --> 00:04:34,500 S2: he's broken the famous so-called Pottery Barn rule that former 76 00:04:34,500 --> 00:04:37,979 S2: US Secretary of State Colin Powell, also chairman of the 77 00:04:37,980 --> 00:04:42,460 S2: Joint Chiefs and a decorated general in the US Army, declared. 78 00:04:42,460 --> 00:04:44,940 S2: He declared The Pottery Barn rule is that if you 79 00:04:44,940 --> 00:04:48,940 S2: break it, you own it. Donald Trump has certainly broken 80 00:04:48,940 --> 00:04:51,339 S2: a lot of things, but he's not prepared to own 81 00:04:51,339 --> 00:04:51,980 S2: any of them. 82 00:04:52,940 --> 00:04:55,820 S1: Absolutely. And we know he breaks rules left, right and center. 83 00:04:56,060 --> 00:04:58,940 S1: So let's continue with what you've been saying. So we're 84 00:04:58,940 --> 00:05:01,620 S1: not in a quagmire just yet. And like you say, 85 00:05:01,700 --> 00:05:04,860 S1: Donald Trump, he could walk away at any time. And 86 00:05:04,860 --> 00:05:06,700 S1: we know that. I mean, he lies as well. So 87 00:05:06,700 --> 00:05:08,660 S1: perhaps let's not think about what he's saying, but what 88 00:05:08,660 --> 00:05:11,060 S1: he's doing because I am thinking, okay, he's now sent 89 00:05:11,100 --> 00:05:15,580 S1: thousands of paratroopers and Marines. Uh, and I'm wondering if 90 00:05:15,580 --> 00:05:16,900 S1: he's going to do that, if he's not going to 91 00:05:16,900 --> 00:05:19,180 S1: use them. In addition to the fact that Trump has 92 00:05:19,180 --> 00:05:22,420 S1: spoken about taking Kharg Island. This is the key hub 93 00:05:22,420 --> 00:05:25,860 S1: for Iran's oil exports. But I believe that Iran can 94 00:05:25,900 --> 00:05:28,660 S1: actually reach that island with missiles and drones. Now, this 95 00:05:28,660 --> 00:05:32,180 S1: does not sound like a recipe for a quick operation 96 00:05:32,180 --> 00:05:35,260 S1: with Trump achieving. I don't know any goals or even 97 00:05:35,260 --> 00:05:37,820 S1: ending this war. So does that have the capacity to 98 00:05:37,860 --> 00:05:41,940 S1: just absolutely expand the length and messiness of this war? 99 00:05:42,980 --> 00:05:45,580 S2: Yes it does. It's not clear whether he intends to 100 00:05:45,620 --> 00:05:48,820 S2: use those troops. The Pentagon says it's giving the president 101 00:05:48,860 --> 00:05:52,020 S2: options should he choose to use them. So it's entirely 102 00:05:52,020 --> 00:05:57,660 S2: up to Trump and we simply don't know. But expert advice, 103 00:05:58,020 --> 00:06:01,620 S2: for example, I talked to Mick Ryan, a former major 104 00:06:01,740 --> 00:06:05,860 S2: general in the Australian Army and a prominent military strategist. 105 00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:09,979 S2: About exactly this. And he told me that he sees 106 00:06:10,020 --> 00:06:14,740 S2: no either physically feasible or politically bearable way for the 107 00:06:14,740 --> 00:06:20,659 S2: US to engage its troops in the occupation of either 108 00:06:20,700 --> 00:06:24,780 S2: Hog Island that you've described or any of the Iranian 109 00:06:24,779 --> 00:06:31,099 S2: oil facilities or other facilities along the coasts. He did, however, 110 00:06:31,140 --> 00:06:36,900 S2: say that a raid by Marines or paratroopers, a quick 111 00:06:37,180 --> 00:06:41,779 S2: in and out raid to disable, to remove, to take 112 00:06:42,420 --> 00:06:45,420 S2: may be possible. He said he could think of dozens 113 00:06:45,420 --> 00:06:48,220 S2: of such scenarios where that could be workable, but he 114 00:06:48,220 --> 00:06:50,659 S2: said we're talking about a raid for hours or a 115 00:06:50,660 --> 00:06:54,099 S2: few days. We're not talking about weeks or anything longer 116 00:06:54,100 --> 00:06:58,779 S2: term than that. What Trump thinks that such a raid 117 00:06:58,779 --> 00:07:04,170 S2: might achieve, that a bombing campaign has not. We don't know. 118 00:07:04,930 --> 00:07:07,170 S1: I guess we'll have to wait to see how it 119 00:07:07,170 --> 00:07:10,210 S1: plays out, because I have heard some analysts saying that 120 00:07:10,210 --> 00:07:12,970 S1: they they think that it looks like Trump might be 121 00:07:12,970 --> 00:07:15,690 S1: wanting to escalate in order to deescalate. So sort of, 122 00:07:15,690 --> 00:07:18,770 S1: you know, bring the heat up on Iran to, I guess, uh, 123 00:07:18,770 --> 00:07:22,130 S1: you know, compel them to back off. Which brings us 124 00:07:22,130 --> 00:07:25,370 S1: to your latest column because, you know, you've written that, 125 00:07:25,370 --> 00:07:28,050 S1: of course, Donald Trump and the Iranian regime have both 126 00:07:28,050 --> 00:07:31,810 S1: been talking about a us-iran war for decades. But the 127 00:07:31,810 --> 00:07:34,810 S1: planning on each side is asymmetric, to say the least. 128 00:07:34,810 --> 00:07:36,929 S1: So let's get into it. First, tell me what Trump 129 00:07:36,930 --> 00:07:40,370 S1: has said or done about wanting to attack Iran over 130 00:07:40,370 --> 00:07:41,130 S1: the decades. 131 00:07:41,930 --> 00:07:45,610 S2: Well, Donald Trump, he does have form. He has a record, 132 00:07:45,650 --> 00:07:47,930 S2: a long record on this way back when he was 133 00:07:47,930 --> 00:07:53,810 S2: a businessman in 1987 88, when he was flirting with 134 00:07:53,810 --> 00:07:57,930 S2: the idea of running for the presidency. He talked about 135 00:07:58,570 --> 00:08:04,010 S2: taking Iran's oil. He talked about hitting hard, destroying Haag Island, 136 00:08:04,050 --> 00:08:07,370 S2: the oil facilities on Haag Island in Iran. He took 137 00:08:07,370 --> 00:08:10,250 S2: out a full page ad in the New York Times, 138 00:08:10,250 --> 00:08:16,250 S2: where he complained about the unfairness of the way that 139 00:08:16,290 --> 00:08:20,610 S2: US allies treated the US and how Iran was should 140 00:08:20,610 --> 00:08:24,690 S2: be a part of the the prize for the US. 141 00:08:24,890 --> 00:08:29,490 S2: So so he's been talking about this since 30, 38 142 00:08:29,490 --> 00:08:34,610 S2: years or something. On the other hand, the Iranians, ever 143 00:08:34,610 --> 00:08:38,170 S2: since the end of the Iran-Iraq war, which is a 144 00:08:38,170 --> 00:08:43,170 S2: horrible eight year war where the Iraqis had a lot 145 00:08:43,170 --> 00:08:47,170 S2: of advantages, including a lot of support and military supply 146 00:08:47,170 --> 00:08:50,450 S2: from the US and others. At the end of that war, 147 00:08:50,490 --> 00:08:54,810 S2: the Iranians decided that they had to be ready for 148 00:08:54,809 --> 00:09:00,250 S2: a long and difficult siege by superior forces at any 149 00:09:00,250 --> 00:09:04,080 S2: point in their future. And I'd also just take you back, Samantha, 150 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,520 S2: briefly to the very origin point of this whole regime 151 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,679 S2: in Iran. The whole concept was that it was a 152 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:16,000 S2: regime of resistance. It was all about defiance. Death to America, 153 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,200 S2: death to Israel. That's the battle cry of this regime 154 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:25,679 S2: since 1979. It's never wanted to be a full participant 155 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,320 S2: in the global affairs. It's never wanted to be a 156 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,719 S2: full participant with the US, it's always set itself up 157 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:36,160 S2: as a as a center, a headquarters of global resistance. 158 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:40,240 S2: And that was its claim to legitimacy, its domestic legitimacy 159 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,760 S2: and its role on the world stage. So ever since then, 160 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:46,960 S2: ever since in particular, the Iran-Iraq war finished in 88, 161 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:51,240 S2: the Iranians have been making concrete preparations. They call it 162 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,720 S2: a resistance economy that they set up with high levels 163 00:09:54,720 --> 00:10:00,679 S2: of self-dependence, where they manufacture all their own essentials pharmaceuticals, 164 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:05,000 S2: car parts, anything that they might need to endure a war. 165 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:09,320 S2: Alternative import routes across land so they're not dependent on 166 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:13,320 S2: things like the Strait of Hormuz. Enormous stocks of weapons 167 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:17,960 S2: and also the flirting with and experimenting with and venturing 168 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:22,960 S2: into refining uranium with a potential view to one day 169 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:26,800 S2: perhaps developing a nuclear weapon. So they have been preparing 170 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,160 S2: in concrete terms. By contrast, Trump has been talking about 171 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,440 S2: it for a long time. But what we see in 172 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:36,320 S2: this war is that his preparations have been, uh, shall 173 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,760 S2: we say, incomplete, shambolic, and at no point has he 174 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:43,600 S2: taken seriously the threat that Iran would close the Strait 175 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:47,120 S2: of Hormuz. And at no point has he planned for 176 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:48,280 S2: what to do about that. 177 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,520 S1: Is this why Iran can take a lot more economic 178 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:53,640 S1: pain than the United States? Because you've made that point 179 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,000 S1: in your column. Is this why or is it something else? 180 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,880 S2: Well, it's exactly for those reasons. It has been making 181 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:03,839 S2: concrete preparations to be self-reliant in the event of a crisis. 182 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:09,720 S2: But it's also the fact that the politics of the 183 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:14,520 S2: regime are that this. They see this as their doomsday. 184 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:16,840 S2: The regime has been waiting for the day when the 185 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:21,160 S2: Great Satan, so-called, and the little Satan so-called, would team 186 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:25,199 S2: up and come against them. But this is the way 187 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,040 S2: the regime, the way the ayatollahs see it. This is 188 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:32,840 S2: this is doomsday. And they're enacting the doomsday plan. Its 189 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:37,679 S2: survival is the is the goal. It's the only goal. Survive. 190 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:43,640 S2: Resist outwait the Americans and have greater endurance, a greater 191 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:47,120 S2: pain tolerance. They don't have to face an electorate. Trump's 192 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,800 S2: got midterms coming up. For them, there is no alternative 193 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:54,720 S2: to this. They either endure this war or they're all dead. 194 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:58,200 S1: After the break. 195 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,640 S2: If it weren't so serious, everybody would laugh at Trump 196 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,350 S2: every day. You don't need a late night comedian. He 197 00:12:04,350 --> 00:12:06,030 S2: writes this the scenes himself. 198 00:12:13,750 --> 00:12:14,630 S3: And so, Peter. 199 00:12:14,830 --> 00:12:17,670 S1: I've got to ask, is Iran winning in this war 200 00:12:17,710 --> 00:12:18,350 S1: so far? 201 00:12:19,270 --> 00:12:23,590 S2: Well, so far. So again, to quote the strategist and 202 00:12:23,590 --> 00:12:28,510 S2: retired general Mick Ryan, the Iranians are achieving their theory 203 00:12:28,510 --> 00:12:32,709 S2: of victory earlier and more comprehensively than the Americans are 204 00:12:32,710 --> 00:12:37,230 S2: achieving theirs. And to quote Mick Ryan again, both sides 205 00:12:37,230 --> 00:12:39,790 S2: might be ready to negotiate, but only one side is 206 00:12:39,790 --> 00:12:42,230 S2: desperate to negotiate. And that's not the Iranians. 207 00:12:43,230 --> 00:12:46,190 S1: And you spoke to an expert on Iran, and he 208 00:12:46,190 --> 00:12:48,310 S1: said something which I just wanted to ask you about, 209 00:12:48,309 --> 00:12:51,110 S1: because I wonder if it sort of portends that this 210 00:12:51,110 --> 00:12:54,950 S1: could become a very long, entrenched conflict, because this expert 211 00:12:54,950 --> 00:12:56,470 S1: said to you, it really seems to be a matter 212 00:12:56,470 --> 00:13:00,790 S1: of when, not if, this Iranian control over oil exports 213 00:13:00,790 --> 00:13:05,390 S1: forces deeper American involvement to dislodge the regime, particularly as 214 00:13:05,390 --> 00:13:08,870 S1: more Marines are entering the region. That would seem to 215 00:13:08,910 --> 00:13:13,030 S1: sort of foreshadow, well, a future quagmire. By my reading. 216 00:13:13,030 --> 00:13:15,790 S1: But I'm no military expert. So you tell me, Peter. 217 00:13:16,510 --> 00:13:19,550 S2: Well, that was the view of, uh, an expert on Iran, 218 00:13:19,550 --> 00:13:23,950 S2: as you say, Benham from the Foundation for the Defense 219 00:13:23,950 --> 00:13:27,870 S2: of Democracies in Washington, D.C., who follows Iran intimately and 220 00:13:27,870 --> 00:13:31,590 S2: has been for decades. He's a native Farsi speaker. But 221 00:13:32,070 --> 00:13:34,949 S2: on this reading of Trump's plans, he may or may 222 00:13:34,950 --> 00:13:38,550 S2: not be right. Trump may or may not send those 223 00:13:38,550 --> 00:13:42,390 S2: troops in, which then, as you say, gets closer to 224 00:13:42,550 --> 00:13:47,470 S2: quagmire territory and raises the risks for the US of 225 00:13:47,470 --> 00:13:53,150 S2: direct military losses. But Trump himself, we now hear and 226 00:13:53,150 --> 00:13:55,950 S2: I know we hear a lot from Trump, but he's 227 00:13:55,950 --> 00:14:00,670 S2: now said for the first time that negotiations don't matter. 228 00:14:01,270 --> 00:14:02,990 S2: It doesn't matter whether he has a deal or not. 229 00:14:02,990 --> 00:14:06,069 S2: He doesn't. Until now, he's been pleading for negotiations and 230 00:14:06,070 --> 00:14:07,670 S2: a deal. Now he says a deal doesn't matter. He 231 00:14:07,670 --> 00:14:12,870 S2: can just walk away and leave. The burden of managing 232 00:14:13,070 --> 00:14:16,429 S2: export of oil through the Strait of Hormuz to the allies. 233 00:14:16,429 --> 00:14:19,850 S2: He specifically named Britain and France in the last 24 234 00:14:19,850 --> 00:14:22,790 S2: hours and said, we don't care. We don't need the oil. 235 00:14:23,070 --> 00:14:26,230 S2: It's up to you guys. So I go in, I 236 00:14:26,230 --> 00:14:31,070 S2: start a war, I escalate the Iranians, return the favor, 237 00:14:31,270 --> 00:14:35,430 S2: cripple the global oil and energy system, I walk away, 238 00:14:35,470 --> 00:14:39,430 S2: it's someone else's problem. Tough luck. So that's that seems 239 00:14:39,430 --> 00:14:42,190 S2: to be the cusp on which we're poised. Does he 240 00:14:42,190 --> 00:14:47,270 S2: walk away and leave the leave a completely dysfunctional global 241 00:14:47,470 --> 00:14:51,270 S2: economy in the balance for everyone else to worry about 242 00:14:51,670 --> 00:14:57,470 S2: my war, your problem, or does he intend to insert 243 00:14:57,590 --> 00:15:03,110 S2: greater force and perhaps including troops on the ground to 244 00:15:03,220 --> 00:15:07,220 S2: try to smash the Iranian regime and smash their oil 245 00:15:07,220 --> 00:15:08,860 S2: export market. 246 00:15:09,620 --> 00:15:11,820 S1: Well that's it. I mean, the troops, I don't believe 247 00:15:11,820 --> 00:15:13,900 S1: they're on the ground yet, but there's certainly been mobilized 248 00:15:13,900 --> 00:15:16,940 S1: in the area, which is significant. And of course, Donald 249 00:15:16,980 --> 00:15:19,740 S1: Trump has threatened to blow up Iran's power stations if 250 00:15:19,740 --> 00:15:23,380 S1: Iran doesn't agree to a ceasefire. So if Trump does 251 00:15:23,380 --> 00:15:26,740 S1: go ahead with striking this infrastructure and in retaliation, Iran 252 00:15:26,740 --> 00:15:29,780 S1: then destroys energy infrastructure across the Gulf, which I think 253 00:15:29,780 --> 00:15:33,180 S1: is a is a is a likely scenario. Some commentators 254 00:15:33,180 --> 00:15:35,700 S1: are saying that this could be one of the major 255 00:15:35,860 --> 00:15:39,420 S1: quote before and after events of human history. Is there 256 00:15:39,420 --> 00:15:40,580 S1: any validity to that? 257 00:15:42,020 --> 00:15:45,140 S2: I think it already is. Samantha, I think we have 258 00:15:45,140 --> 00:15:49,220 S2: already just in this last month and a bit seen, 259 00:15:50,020 --> 00:15:53,820 S2: the global systems have now crossed our threshold in a 260 00:15:53,820 --> 00:15:58,260 S2: couple of ways. Now, what the situation you're describing is 261 00:15:58,260 --> 00:16:04,820 S2: where the Gulf states, including the Saudis, the Emiratis can 262 00:16:04,820 --> 00:16:09,420 S2: no longer freely or reliably export their their oil because 263 00:16:09,420 --> 00:16:13,780 S2: their systems have been smashed. And the Qataris, if there 264 00:16:14,020 --> 00:16:17,420 S2: is further damage to their LNG plants, their massive export 265 00:16:17,460 --> 00:16:22,420 S2: of LNG. So if that were to happen, the global 266 00:16:22,420 --> 00:16:26,460 S2: oil price, which so far has been up about 60%, 267 00:16:27,060 --> 00:16:30,260 S2: the global LNG price, which has been up over 100%, 268 00:16:30,620 --> 00:16:34,420 S2: they would would continue to increase to a much higher level. 269 00:16:34,860 --> 00:16:38,500 S2: It would be a very difficult interim phase for the 270 00:16:38,500 --> 00:16:40,980 S2: world to get through. But I think the net effect 271 00:16:40,980 --> 00:16:45,580 S2: of this crisis will be to accelerate the global decarbonisation 272 00:16:45,780 --> 00:16:48,940 S2: of countries around the world who see that as the 273 00:16:48,940 --> 00:16:53,180 S2: only way of severing their dependence on this. A lot 274 00:16:53,180 --> 00:16:56,860 S2: of countries are better placed than we in Australia are 275 00:16:56,900 --> 00:17:01,460 S2: for for a difficult interim phase. The other way in 276 00:17:01,460 --> 00:17:05,409 S2: which I think we've crossed a threshold, Samantha, is the 277 00:17:05,410 --> 00:17:10,889 S2: amount of power that Donald Trump. While the paradox here 278 00:17:10,890 --> 00:17:15,290 S2: is that he thinks he's demonstrating America's great, mighty and 279 00:17:15,290 --> 00:17:23,330 S2: unassailable invincible power. What he's actually done is reveal American weakness, 280 00:17:23,810 --> 00:17:28,250 S2: and he has ceded power notably to the great challenger 281 00:17:28,250 --> 00:17:32,530 S2: of the US, which is China. He sacrificed American credibility 282 00:17:32,890 --> 00:17:37,090 S2: and reliability here. Everybody. The entire world. If it weren't 283 00:17:37,090 --> 00:17:41,090 S2: so serious, everybody would laugh at Trump every day. It doesn't. 284 00:17:41,090 --> 00:17:43,210 S2: You don't need a late night comedian. He writes the 285 00:17:43,250 --> 00:17:47,290 S2: scenes himself. He cannot be trusted. He cannot be relied on. 286 00:17:47,890 --> 00:17:52,810 S2: His allies are in a state of near apoplexy about 287 00:17:53,050 --> 00:17:56,330 S2: his unreliability, but also the casual abuse and burdens that 288 00:17:56,330 --> 00:17:59,490 S2: he throws out onto his allies. So the great beneficiary 289 00:17:59,490 --> 00:18:03,570 S2: of this is China, whose own standing as the second 290 00:18:03,690 --> 00:18:07,250 S2: biggest economy or purchasing power parity terms, biggest economy in 291 00:18:07,250 --> 00:18:11,930 S2: the world looks like a stable, credible, sensible regime without 292 00:18:11,930 --> 00:18:14,530 S2: having to do anything, without having to do a thing. 293 00:18:15,530 --> 00:18:18,370 S2: And the second way in which it transfers power is 294 00:18:18,369 --> 00:18:21,010 S2: that while the US is now tied up in the 295 00:18:21,010 --> 00:18:23,690 S2: Middle East, while the US, while Trump has now further 296 00:18:23,690 --> 00:18:29,369 S2: degraded the use and the viability. Political viability of the 297 00:18:29,369 --> 00:18:33,409 S2: use of military force in the US, it simply sapped 298 00:18:33,690 --> 00:18:38,850 S2: the US's ability to wage military force. Not just Trump's, but. 299 00:18:38,850 --> 00:18:41,610 S2: But any. And this is part of a continuum that 300 00:18:42,290 --> 00:18:45,490 S2: really accelerated with the Iran and Afghanistan wars. And this 301 00:18:45,490 --> 00:18:48,770 S2: is now another under another president demonstrating that they might 302 00:18:48,770 --> 00:18:51,210 S2: have a bunch of missiles, but they have no strategy. 303 00:18:51,570 --> 00:18:55,130 S2: And I think this does accelerate this does hasten the 304 00:18:55,130 --> 00:18:59,970 S2: relative decline of US power against the relative rise of China's. 305 00:19:01,250 --> 00:19:03,129 S1: I mean, just tell me here I've just had a 306 00:19:03,130 --> 00:19:05,050 S1: thought and you just tell me if it's outlandish or 307 00:19:05,050 --> 00:19:08,130 S1: if I'm off with the Pixies, because I wonder whether 308 00:19:08,130 --> 00:19:10,770 S1: in decades to come, we'll look back at this moment 309 00:19:10,770 --> 00:19:14,530 S1: as the beginning of when America became some sort of pariah. 310 00:19:14,570 --> 00:19:16,930 S1: Like not only, of course, is its power being degraded 311 00:19:16,930 --> 00:19:20,450 S1: and its influence is being degraded and its allies are well, 312 00:19:20,450 --> 00:19:23,010 S1: they're not revolting against America yet, but they're certainly finding 313 00:19:23,050 --> 00:19:26,330 S1: America revolting in terms of their lack of reliance. Like, 314 00:19:26,330 --> 00:19:28,129 S1: could this be. Could we look back at this moment 315 00:19:28,130 --> 00:19:30,969 S1: and go, wow, this is when America really, you know, 316 00:19:31,450 --> 00:19:34,730 S1: it was the beginning of other countries ganging up on America. 317 00:19:35,490 --> 00:19:38,250 S2: I think we are past that point. And I think 318 00:19:38,250 --> 00:19:41,530 S2: history will will see that because it's the moment that 319 00:19:41,530 --> 00:19:44,410 S2: this is the moment Donald Trump is the man, and 320 00:19:44,410 --> 00:19:49,370 S2: this is the moment when he has willingly just junked 321 00:19:49,609 --> 00:19:54,129 S2: the US empire. Now, the US empire, that's a controversial term. 322 00:19:54,890 --> 00:19:56,570 S2: And the US does not have an empire in the 323 00:19:56,570 --> 00:20:00,609 S2: traditional sense, but around the world, the distinctive feature of 324 00:20:00,609 --> 00:20:03,090 S2: the US empire since World War Two has been that 325 00:20:03,090 --> 00:20:08,000 S2: it has been a virtual empire built on trust, and 326 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,680 S2: it's been an empire in which the US has made 327 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:15,040 S2: itself attractive and indispensable to other countries so that volunteers, 328 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,920 S2: countries have volunteered. Other countries have wanted to be US allies, 329 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,560 S2: they've clamored to be US allies. And that's given that 330 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:27,280 S2: has given had given the US an enormous structure of 331 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,520 S2: alliances around the world. More than 40 countries, all of 332 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:35,120 S2: the rich democracies on the planet were were willing participants 333 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:39,400 S2: in this virtual empire. Now, Trump's Trump has shattered that. 334 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,320 S2: This has all come to an end. There is no 335 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:45,440 S2: trust which takes decades to build, and Trump is shredding 336 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,080 S2: every single day. It's very difficult to recover that the 337 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:53,880 S2: virtual empire is ended. That was the US's distinctive source 338 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,520 S2: of power. It operated the rules and the alliance structures 339 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,720 S2: which governed the world. Obama started this, I think, when 340 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,239 S2: he showed the US did not have the willpower to 341 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,359 S2: enforce its own redlines, even on a, you know, a 342 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,960 S2: tin pot state like Syria. And that then encouraged the Russians, 343 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,479 S2: the Chinese, to make the territorial and political expansions that 344 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:18,040 S2: they've been doing ever since. But Trump now, not only 345 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:23,000 S2: is he happy to appease the Russians under Putin try 346 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:27,760 S2: to do deals without confronting Beijing. He's now thrown away 347 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:32,040 S2: the virtual empire, which was the US distinctive source of power. 348 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,879 S2: And I do I do absolutely think this is the 349 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,800 S2: historic threshold. We are watching the sun go down on 350 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,520 S2: this empire day by day. And it's Donald Trump. 351 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,679 S1: Wow. Like, like you've said in previous podcasts, big history 352 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,960 S1: in a short period of time every day. 353 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,240 S2: It's all around us. Unfortunately, it's also at the petrol bowser. 354 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,280 S1: Well, it's on all levels, isn't it? So as always, Peter, 355 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:57,479 S1: thank you so much for your time. 356 00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:58,359 S2: Pleasure, Samantha. 357 00:22:14,310 --> 00:22:18,190 S1: In other news today, Victorian police are searching two phones 358 00:22:18,190 --> 00:22:22,030 S1: found at Desi Freeman's remote hideout for information on who 359 00:22:22,070 --> 00:22:26,109 S1: helped the former fugitive prime minister Anthony Albanese gave a 360 00:22:26,109 --> 00:22:28,990 S1: rare address to the nation last night on the war 361 00:22:28,990 --> 00:22:32,510 S1: and fuel supply. And two Sydney private schools have been 362 00:22:32,510 --> 00:22:35,510 S1: found to be spending more than $5 million a year 363 00:22:35,710 --> 00:22:38,590 S1: on a team of executives. To find out more, go 364 00:22:38,590 --> 00:22:44,909 S1: to SMH or the Ajcosta. Today's episode was produced by 365 00:22:44,950 --> 00:22:48,390 S1: Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our 366 00:22:48,390 --> 00:22:52,750 S1: podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If 367 00:22:52,790 --> 00:22:55,550 S1: you like our show, follow The Morning Edition and leave 368 00:22:55,550 --> 00:22:59,429 S1: a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.