1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,680 S1: I wanted to go back to the incredible mind of 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:05,720 S1: retired Australian Army Major General Gus McLaughlin. He's been very 3 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,719 S1: generous with his expertise with us on this show over 4 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,080 S1: the last so many months. Excellent insights. He's with us again. Gus, 5 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:13,400 S1: thank you so much for your time. 6 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:14,960 S2: G'day, Michael. 7 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:17,640 S1: When we last spoke, I recall, I think you told 8 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,880 S1: us that the ayatollah would be dark and deep. Uh, clearly, 9 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:22,000 S1: he wasn't deep enough. 10 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:26,440 S2: No, we definitely thought that he would be a target 11 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,600 S2: if they could have the intelligence services, uh, track and 12 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,640 S2: identify him. And you made the comments in your remark 13 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:38,320 S2: about the absolutely remarkable penetration of the Iranian leadership that 14 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:42,400 S2: I suspect, uh, Mossad had. Um, you'll be aware that 15 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,879 S2: they drew the, uh, the launch time for the attack forward, 16 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:53,000 S2: because this incredible opportunity presented itself where, uh, the ayatollah 17 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:57,000 S2: and his senior leadership team chose to gather in person, uh, 18 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,880 S2: an extraordinary decision in its own right, in my opinion. 19 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:05,660 S2: But having, uh, having having been exposed by probably Israeli intelligence, 20 00:01:05,660 --> 00:01:09,580 S2: the attack was brought forward to daylight to target them. Uh, 21 00:01:09,580 --> 00:01:13,699 S2: and that kicked off this round of, um, of hostilities. 22 00:01:13,900 --> 00:01:17,860 S1: Alright. The ayatollah is dead. Uh, 40 other senior military 23 00:01:17,860 --> 00:01:21,699 S1: and political figures are dead. Who's calling the shots over there? 24 00:01:22,620 --> 00:01:24,980 S2: Yeah, you might. You might have picked up just before 25 00:01:25,180 --> 00:01:29,619 S2: the hostilities commenced. The Iranians obviously, uh, knew this was coming. 26 00:01:29,620 --> 00:01:31,619 S2: Like you and I spoke last time. This is not 27 00:01:31,620 --> 00:01:35,500 S2: a president who leaves, uh, a giant pistol in the holster. 28 00:01:35,500 --> 00:01:38,979 S2: He had put the Gerald Ford, the newest aircraft carrier 29 00:01:39,020 --> 00:01:42,300 S2: in the US fleet, uh, into the Mediterranean Sea, largely 30 00:01:42,300 --> 00:01:46,740 S2: to provide air cover for Israel and and gave them 31 00:01:46,740 --> 00:01:50,540 S2: the ability to launch their own strikes without fear of, uh, 32 00:01:50,540 --> 00:01:54,740 S2: a counter-strikes on their capital. So the, um, the leadership 33 00:01:54,780 --> 00:01:57,900 S2: saw that was coming and made a direction that every 34 00:01:57,940 --> 00:02:03,160 S2: leader in their, uh, political system should identify for potential 35 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:08,320 S2: replacements and name and name those individuals. The expectation being 36 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,919 S2: that their leadership would be subject to this kind of attack. Now, 37 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,160 S2: it's easy to say that, of course, it's another thing 38 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:19,040 S2: to have a meaningful command and control structure that remains. 39 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:23,000 S2: But I am one that believes that the Republican Guard Corps, 40 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:27,680 S2: at least, is probably still coherent and incredibly dangerous for 41 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,600 S2: the population of Iran itself. 42 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,200 S1: How many do you think? With that said, Gus, um, 43 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:39,840 S1: in the Iranian political apparatus, the upper echelons, and, you know, 44 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:41,920 S1: they've been loyal to the Ayatollah no matter what they 45 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,600 S1: might think privately about him and all that. Uh, but 46 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,280 S1: how many do you think are flippable here? We've clearly 47 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,000 S1: seen in Venezuela that the CIA have got into the 48 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,160 S1: Maduro government. I mean, they're all chauvinists on the surface, 49 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,880 S1: but clearly a few of them were not that loyal 50 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,400 S1: when they saw what side the bread was buttered. Uh, 51 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,690 S1: it could it be the same situation in Iran, that 52 00:03:00,850 --> 00:03:03,810 S1: sort of a government starts to emerge from within the government, 53 00:03:03,810 --> 00:03:06,130 S1: but one that isn't hell bent on theocracy and oppressing 54 00:03:06,130 --> 00:03:07,290 S1: women and all the rest of it. 55 00:03:08,610 --> 00:03:12,650 S2: I wish that was the case. I look, look, and 56 00:03:12,650 --> 00:03:15,329 S2: this is just my hypothesis, Michael. But I believe that 57 00:03:15,370 --> 00:03:19,250 S2: what we will probably see is an accommodation by the 58 00:03:19,250 --> 00:03:25,970 S2: Trump administration to a a version of the current regime. Now, 59 00:03:25,970 --> 00:03:28,690 S2: whether it is slightly more moderate, I suspect what that 60 00:03:28,690 --> 00:03:31,730 S2: regime will promise the Americans is that they will end 61 00:03:31,770 --> 00:03:35,810 S2: the nuclear enrichment process, that they will withdraw from creating 62 00:03:35,810 --> 00:03:39,930 S2: de facto forces in the form of Hezbollah and Hamas. 63 00:03:40,090 --> 00:03:42,850 S2: Whether we believe that or not, you know, is is 64 00:03:42,890 --> 00:03:46,450 S2: a separate question. And I think that's potentially the best 65 00:03:46,450 --> 00:03:50,410 S2: deal that Trump is going to achieve, achieving true regime 66 00:03:50,410 --> 00:03:54,530 S2: collapse and having the street rise up. Um, you know, 67 00:03:54,570 --> 00:03:57,570 S2: in my opinion, would take, uh, like we saw in 68 00:03:57,970 --> 00:04:00,910 S2: early stages of Afghanistan, it would take special forces on 69 00:04:00,910 --> 00:04:06,310 S2: the ground with laser designated target systems that could assist 70 00:04:06,310 --> 00:04:11,110 S2: an uprising, destroy, uh, Iranian Republican Guard capability, etc. there's 71 00:04:11,110 --> 00:04:14,350 S2: no indication that Trump is willing to go that far. 72 00:04:14,350 --> 00:04:17,349 S2: So I think what he will probably do, um, I 73 00:04:17,350 --> 00:04:19,630 S2: think we've got another couple of weeks of hostility, and 74 00:04:19,630 --> 00:04:23,190 S2: then we will see him claim a victory of sorts 75 00:04:23,190 --> 00:04:26,630 S2: as he begins negotiation with some sort of revised regime. 76 00:04:27,310 --> 00:04:30,350 S1: If that were to happen, uh, that would be very 77 00:04:30,350 --> 00:04:34,830 S1: disappointing for the millions of Iranian diaspora around the world who, uh, 78 00:04:34,870 --> 00:04:37,430 S1: when they were told help was coming, assumed that it 79 00:04:37,430 --> 00:04:39,630 S1: would be more than just the death of the Ayatollah, 80 00:04:39,630 --> 00:04:41,750 S1: but with him would be the death of the regime 81 00:04:41,750 --> 00:04:42,950 S1: that propped him up. Right? 82 00:04:43,670 --> 00:04:47,590 S2: Yeah. Well, in this sort of, um, you know, regime collapse, 83 00:04:47,589 --> 00:04:51,990 S2: regime transfer, you're looking for a couple of metrics. One is, uh, 84 00:04:52,029 --> 00:04:55,950 S2: you know, will the regime leadership fragment the elites, will 85 00:04:55,990 --> 00:05:00,690 S2: they change sides? Um, and unfortunately, so far. And I 86 00:05:00,690 --> 00:05:04,610 S2: say it's early days, but we haven't seen the cohesion 87 00:05:04,610 --> 00:05:08,650 S2: of the Republican Guard Corps or the broader conventional army 88 00:05:08,850 --> 00:05:12,969 S2: collapsed yet. Now, that's as I said, it's only early days, 89 00:05:13,170 --> 00:05:16,570 S2: but I think my concern is that we might see 90 00:05:16,570 --> 00:05:22,450 S2: the conventional army and Navy do collapse. They're largely conscripts. 91 00:05:22,450 --> 00:05:26,010 S2: They're not as ideologically driven, but the Republican Guard Corps 92 00:05:26,010 --> 00:05:30,370 S2: are a different species. These are ideologues. They are extremists. 93 00:05:30,370 --> 00:05:32,969 S2: They have shown the willingness to kill tens of thousands 94 00:05:32,970 --> 00:05:37,290 S2: of their own population in recent weeks. So it's going 95 00:05:37,330 --> 00:05:40,490 S2: to take something extra to push them over the edge. 96 00:05:40,730 --> 00:05:43,530 S2: The other concern, I think we've spoken about this before, Michael, 97 00:05:43,529 --> 00:05:47,450 S2: is the the arms locker in both the US and 98 00:05:47,450 --> 00:05:52,490 S2: Israel is getting relatively shallow. So Mr. Trump's military advisers 99 00:05:52,490 --> 00:05:55,650 S2: will be telling him that the Thad missiles there, the 100 00:05:55,650 --> 00:05:59,690 S2: high altitude air defense missiles, the Patriot missiles, the long 101 00:05:59,870 --> 00:06:04,469 S2: range strike missiles are the Navy's version of those missiles, 102 00:06:04,470 --> 00:06:07,989 S2: called the Standard Missile. All of those we are hearing 103 00:06:07,990 --> 00:06:11,789 S2: are starting to become depleted in the US inventory. They 104 00:06:11,790 --> 00:06:14,550 S2: won't want those stocks run down to a point where 105 00:06:14,550 --> 00:06:19,030 S2: they become vulnerable to Chinese action, for example, over Taiwan. 106 00:06:19,029 --> 00:06:22,310 S2: So my estimate is while Mr. Trump is saying he's 107 00:06:22,310 --> 00:06:24,750 S2: got four weeks more of war, I think we've probably 108 00:06:24,750 --> 00:06:28,349 S2: got something closer to two. And then I think the 109 00:06:28,550 --> 00:06:32,589 S2: military leadership will be asking the president to to leave some, 110 00:06:32,710 --> 00:06:35,430 S2: some arms in the locker until they can be replenished. 111 00:06:35,589 --> 00:06:39,310 S1: Which would make sense. Um, I guess when we look 112 00:06:39,350 --> 00:06:43,349 S1: at the broader picture, however, uh, the Americans, surely the 113 00:06:43,390 --> 00:06:46,550 S1: more the grand strategists that operate in the Pentagon, etc. 114 00:06:47,070 --> 00:06:49,870 S1: would be hoping, would they not? That regime change would 115 00:06:49,870 --> 00:06:55,030 S1: be possible, because only with regime change do you guarantee 116 00:06:55,310 --> 00:06:57,750 S1: an end to the arms supply and the financial support 117 00:06:57,750 --> 00:07:01,210 S1: of Hezbollah, the Hamas and the Houthis, as well as 118 00:07:01,730 --> 00:07:04,530 S1: an end to the drone trade with the Russians, which 119 00:07:04,529 --> 00:07:08,050 S1: is pounding the Ukrainians and the subsidized oil to the 120 00:07:08,050 --> 00:07:09,370 S1: Chinese military machine. 121 00:07:10,610 --> 00:07:16,610 S2: I unfortunately think that the advisers around President Trump are 122 00:07:17,290 --> 00:07:25,170 S2: slightly more Machiavellian and perhaps. Are realists in the sense 123 00:07:25,170 --> 00:07:29,970 S2: that they will accept something short of that if, uh, 124 00:07:30,010 --> 00:07:32,770 S2: you know, if they believe that's the most likely outcome. 125 00:07:32,770 --> 00:07:35,130 S2: I think we saw that in Venezuela. We haven't seen 126 00:07:35,130 --> 00:07:39,330 S2: the push toward full democracy there. We've seen effectively the regime, 127 00:07:39,330 --> 00:07:43,770 S2: less the previous president, continue to operate. Um, and but 128 00:07:43,770 --> 00:07:46,850 S2: I do think one thing that President Trump is demonstrating to, 129 00:07:46,890 --> 00:07:50,650 S2: to any of these, um, uh, autocratic leaders is that 130 00:07:50,650 --> 00:07:53,930 S2: he is willing to use US force. And I think 131 00:07:53,970 --> 00:07:56,810 S2: it would be clear to any new regime leaders that 132 00:07:56,810 --> 00:08:00,830 S2: he would be willing to come back. So, uh, promises 133 00:08:00,830 --> 00:08:04,590 S2: made by a new regime as long as they kept 134 00:08:04,590 --> 00:08:09,590 S2: their power and abuse internally, I suspect, and I fear 135 00:08:09,910 --> 00:08:13,710 S2: that we may see some of those strategists in the US, um, 136 00:08:14,070 --> 00:08:17,510 S2: be willing to accept that now, um, you know, I 137 00:08:17,510 --> 00:08:20,510 S2: think that would be a terrible outcome, but I think 138 00:08:20,510 --> 00:08:23,550 S2: that is probably where we're headed. I think Netanyahu knows 139 00:08:23,550 --> 00:08:26,350 S2: this is the last roll of the dice for a while. Um, 140 00:08:26,630 --> 00:08:28,430 S2: and so I think we're heading to some sort of 141 00:08:28,470 --> 00:08:29,870 S2: pragmatic outcome. 142 00:08:30,710 --> 00:08:32,510 S1: Uh, the off ramp, as they call it. Hey. 143 00:08:33,150 --> 00:08:36,550 S2: Yeah. Look, I wish it wasn't the case. Um, Michael, 144 00:08:36,550 --> 00:08:38,910 S2: but I think this this does appear to be a 145 00:08:40,309 --> 00:08:44,429 S2: US administration. That is, that is backed more by pragmatism 146 00:08:44,429 --> 00:08:49,230 S2: than idealism. Um, and I think that might, um, see 147 00:08:49,230 --> 00:08:52,830 S2: the result in this case, um, less optimal than we 148 00:08:52,870 --> 00:08:55,429 S2: would like. Now, it is still possible with a couple 149 00:08:55,470 --> 00:08:59,640 S2: of weeks of very specifically targeted attacks that undermine the 150 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:03,280 S2: Iranian Republican Guard in particular, that they may reach a 151 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:07,040 S2: point where the population feels the confidence to to get 152 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,559 S2: on the street and overthrow the government. I hope that's 153 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,040 S2: the outcome. But I feel that if they haven't done 154 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:14,360 S2: that within the next 2 to 3 weeks, that I 155 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:18,120 S2: think the US administration may pull up, pull up stumps. 156 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,840 S1: I would certainly agree with that. Just finally, uh, let's 157 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,360 S1: here's a quick hypothetical. Let's say the people return to 158 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,440 S1: the streets, you know, millions big, big turnout in a 159 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,199 S1: week from now when the bombs sort of quietened down 160 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,280 S1: or what have you, uh, and the Republican Guard come 161 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,000 S1: out and start shooting again. I mean, is it practical 162 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,400 S1: in that circumstance for the Western allies, including the Europeans, 163 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,079 S1: just to sit back and watch that? 164 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:43,680 S2: Got it. It's it's horrific to think about how that 165 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,200 S2: might be. And, you know, we all recall things like 166 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:50,280 S2: Tiananmen Square where, where unarmed civilians end up trying to 167 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,720 S2: face down tanks and armored vehicles and, and, you know, 168 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,120 S2: even artillery. Um, you know, we saw in the in 169 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,160 S2: the early days of the Syrian civil war, Assad willing 170 00:09:59,300 --> 00:10:03,380 S2: to drop chemical munitions on his own population. Unfortunately, these 171 00:10:03,380 --> 00:10:06,620 S2: are the the extremes that some of these regimes will 172 00:10:06,620 --> 00:10:09,939 S2: go to to stay in power. I think in this case, 173 00:10:10,260 --> 00:10:14,059 S2: there will be an incentive for any new regime leaders 174 00:10:14,059 --> 00:10:18,060 S2: to stop short of that sort of behavior because of 175 00:10:18,059 --> 00:10:23,540 S2: the risk of ultimately drawing the Americans into some deeper intervention. 176 00:10:23,540 --> 00:10:27,300 S2: So I think we'll see some sort of cynical accommodation 177 00:10:27,300 --> 00:10:32,460 S2: by a new, uh, you know, autocracy lite that will 178 00:10:32,460 --> 00:10:36,339 S2: attempt to placate both the population and, and the, uh, 179 00:10:36,380 --> 00:10:38,020 S2: the Americans in particular. 180 00:10:38,059 --> 00:10:41,140 S1: Well, for everybody's sake, let's hope that, uh, the revolution, 181 00:10:41,140 --> 00:10:44,260 S1: as it were, can actually happen. And despite all the 182 00:10:44,260 --> 00:10:47,579 S1: very sensible things you've said, somehow the miracle can prevail. Gus, 183 00:10:47,580 --> 00:10:49,140 S1: thank you for your insight once again. 184 00:10:49,780 --> 00:10:51,699 S2: I wish I could be more optimistic, Michael. And I 185 00:10:51,780 --> 00:10:53,699 S2: like you, I hope that I hope that I'm wrong. 186 00:10:53,740 --> 00:10:55,740 S1: Yeah, well, we've got to be realists, though, don't we, 187 00:10:55,860 --> 00:10:59,180 S1: Gus McLaughlin. Always wonderful to speak to Gus. Retired Australian 188 00:10:59,179 --> 00:10:59,900 S1: Army major general.