1 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:08,719 S1: A growing majority of Australians want housing prices to fall, 2 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,200 S1: in some cases by more than 20%, according to new 3 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:16,759 S1: polling exclusive to our mastheads. Could it be that our 4 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,560 S1: decades long obsession with growing house prices is finally coming 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,760 S1: to a halt? I'm Samantha Zellinger Maurice, and you're listening 6 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:30,080 S1: to Morning Edition from The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today, 7 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:34,680 S1: senior economics correspondent Shane Wright on why conventional wisdom about 8 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,080 S1: what voters want from their housing seems to be wrong. 9 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:46,560 S1: It's July the 14th. Shane, welcome back to the podcast. 10 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,199 S1: Tell us, what does the latest resolve Political Monitor polling 11 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:54,280 S1: tell us about how Australians are feeling about house prices? 12 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,400 S2: Well, you know that there's been a huge debate about 13 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:01,280 S2: house prices, particularly in light of the budget in May. 14 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:06,080 S2: And so in June, we actually asked the question, do 15 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,640 S2: people think they could live with lower house prices? And 16 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:14,319 S2: in June, 54%, which was a big surprise to us. 17 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,840 S2: Sky news did its own poll. They actually went, yep, 18 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,800 S2: that's where it is around. We actually have just asked 19 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:26,320 S2: it again. So in this new poll, 2200 people, 61% 20 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:31,360 S2: say thumbs up to lower house prices and a drop 21 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:33,880 S2: in the number of people who were opposed to lower 22 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:39,080 S2: house prices like it is in single figures and like 23 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:44,400 S2: even amongst coalition supporters. Now, the coalition has been saying, well, 24 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,119 S2: this government just wants to drive down house prices. The 25 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:51,760 S2: coalition may be at odds with its own supporters because 58% 26 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:57,320 S2: of coalition voters, up from 41% in June. Yep. The 27 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:01,880 S2: country needs lower house prices like in terms of polling, 28 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,640 S2: and I have seen a lot of polls over over 29 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:09,120 S2: the years to see these sorts of numbers. And it's 30 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:13,399 S2: across every age group, every income group, no matter you 31 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,880 S2: live out the back of Bourke or in the inner city. 32 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:21,200 S2: Everyone says, yep, we've got stupid house prices. Let's see 33 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:22,080 S2: them fall a bit. 34 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:24,560 S1: Okay, so is it fair to say, were you shocked 35 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,040 S1: by this, this, you know, quite sizeable support among Australians 36 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,960 S1: for a drop in housing prices? I mean, dare I 37 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,520 S1: say it's almost an Australian religion, uh, for people to 38 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,280 S1: want their house prices to go up. Yes. 39 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,040 S2: Yes. There's so many people praying at the the local 40 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:41,400 S2: Ray white every Sunday, aren't they. Or Saturday. 41 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:42,600 S1: I mean, just about. 42 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,160 S2: Yeah. And I think you and I have talked previously 43 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,280 S2: about it was John Howard more than 20 years ago. 44 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,839 S2: He was on Brisbane radio and revealed no one's ever 45 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,880 S2: stopped me saying I want the value of my house 46 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:53,359 S2: to fall. 47 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,200 S1: That's right. And at the time, just to just to 48 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:58,560 S1: give listeners some context. So that was 2003 and that 49 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,269 S1: was John Howard then being grilled because house prices had 50 00:03:02,310 --> 00:03:04,630 S1: at that point doubled in the previous seven years, so 51 00:03:04,630 --> 00:03:07,670 S1: the interviewer was grilling him. Sort of, I guess, justify 52 00:03:07,910 --> 00:03:11,310 S1: the continued rise in house prices. And that was back then. 53 00:03:11,310 --> 00:03:13,390 S2: And they've gone up 300% since then. 54 00:03:14,150 --> 00:03:16,750 S1: So I guess here's my question. Does this reflect a 55 00:03:16,750 --> 00:03:20,510 S1: larger cultural shift in our values? And I mean that sincerely. 56 00:03:20,550 --> 00:03:22,950 S1: You know, if at the time that was the prevailing wisdom, 57 00:03:22,950 --> 00:03:25,669 S1: if John Howard indeed was right, and if he was 58 00:03:25,669 --> 00:03:28,350 S1: telling the unvarnished truth that really no one had ever 59 00:03:28,350 --> 00:03:31,270 S1: complained about their house price going up, does this reflect 60 00:03:31,270 --> 00:03:33,429 S1: some broader shift in values? 61 00:03:33,870 --> 00:03:36,350 S2: I think it's reflecting a shift in the value of 62 00:03:36,350 --> 00:03:40,230 S2: housing over the last, okay, last 20 years. That is 63 00:03:40,230 --> 00:03:43,230 S2: part of it. There's also been a demographic change, like 64 00:03:43,590 --> 00:03:48,710 S2: when Howard was speaking in 2003, the boomer population was 65 00:03:48,710 --> 00:03:53,589 S2: still seven years away from retiring. And their wealth, they 66 00:03:53,590 --> 00:03:56,910 S2: were being made exceedingly wealthy by what was going on 67 00:03:56,910 --> 00:04:01,310 S2: in the housing market. But since then we've actually had 68 00:04:01,310 --> 00:04:05,310 S2: two more generations move through. Uh, millennials and Gen Z 69 00:04:05,310 --> 00:04:08,910 S2: and they've gone, what the hell? Boomers have become the 70 00:04:08,910 --> 00:04:10,910 S2: bank of mum and Dad, as well as some of 71 00:04:10,910 --> 00:04:14,470 S2: Gen Xers, and they've all gone. Hold on. When the 72 00:04:14,470 --> 00:04:19,670 S2: hell did housing get so expensive? I think around 2003, 73 00:04:19,710 --> 00:04:23,990 S2: the average mortgage in New South Wales was about 250,000. 74 00:04:24,029 --> 00:04:29,550 S2: It's now 860,000. So people have gone, oh, whoops. This 75 00:04:29,550 --> 00:04:32,789 S2: has got out of control. And I think that's like 76 00:04:32,910 --> 00:04:36,670 S2: there is a reason why Labor and Anthony Albanese and 77 00:04:36,670 --> 00:04:40,710 S2: Jim Chalmers have been talking about housing for the last 78 00:04:41,029 --> 00:04:44,029 S2: well since they came to office. They really did. Because remember, 79 00:04:44,029 --> 00:04:48,750 S2: they came to office in 2022 in 2021. The median 80 00:04:48,750 --> 00:04:51,990 S2: house price in Sydney had gone up by more than 30% 81 00:04:51,990 --> 00:04:55,510 S2: in 12 months. It's the biggest one year increase that 82 00:04:55,510 --> 00:05:00,470 S2: the country has seen since the late 1980s. So yeah, 83 00:05:00,830 --> 00:05:04,070 S2: that whole issue has really changed as well as the 84 00:05:04,070 --> 00:05:04,950 S2: political debate. 85 00:05:05,310 --> 00:05:06,910 S1: Okay. Well, I want to ask you, I guess, about 86 00:05:06,910 --> 00:05:10,150 S1: how this is landing politically because you are recording from 87 00:05:10,150 --> 00:05:12,590 S1: Parliament House, the seat of power, as it were, at 88 00:05:12,589 --> 00:05:15,110 S1: the moment. And one of our colleagues, Jack Maley, she 89 00:05:15,110 --> 00:05:18,430 S1: wrote about this issue of housing just last weekend. And 90 00:05:18,430 --> 00:05:20,590 S1: she had said at the time that this has been 91 00:05:20,589 --> 00:05:23,350 S1: tricky for the government, she said. Notably, Prime Minister Anthony 92 00:05:23,350 --> 00:05:27,349 S1: Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers squirm when asked if lower 93 00:05:27,350 --> 00:05:30,510 S1: housing prices were the intent of the capital gains tax 94 00:05:30,710 --> 00:05:34,310 S1: and negative gearing policies introduced in the May budget and 95 00:05:34,310 --> 00:05:37,310 S1: now legislated. So this is tricky, right? Because she was saying, 96 00:05:37,550 --> 00:05:40,190 S1: you know, if you say that you do support a 97 00:05:40,190 --> 00:05:42,390 S1: drop in housing prices, you could be decried as a 98 00:05:42,390 --> 00:05:45,270 S1: wealth destroying socialist. But if you say, no, you're not 99 00:05:45,270 --> 00:05:48,750 S1: against it, you're setting yourself against what almost every economist, politician, 100 00:05:48,750 --> 00:05:52,390 S1: and ordinary person has acknowledged for years, which of course 101 00:05:52,390 --> 00:05:55,630 S1: is that property is completely unaffordable. So how does this 102 00:05:55,630 --> 00:05:57,670 S1: do you reckon land? What are you hearing there in 103 00:05:57,670 --> 00:05:59,710 S1: Parliament in terms of how this is landing with the 104 00:05:59,710 --> 00:06:00,870 S1: government and others. 105 00:06:00,910 --> 00:06:04,030 S2: Well, I think you're getting into the the conventional political 106 00:06:04,029 --> 00:06:07,830 S2: wisdom had been high prices are good for the incumbent, 107 00:06:08,110 --> 00:06:12,070 S2: but the term conventional wisdom actually means it's wrong. Conventional 108 00:06:12,070 --> 00:06:15,390 S2: wisdom is wrong. I think these two polls and what 109 00:06:15,390 --> 00:06:18,350 S2: Sky has also picked up is showing that the community 110 00:06:18,350 --> 00:06:22,510 S2: has actually moved on from that default position of the 111 00:06:22,510 --> 00:06:25,270 S2: major parties. And we can see, like Pauline Hanson, for instance, 112 00:06:25,270 --> 00:06:28,190 S2: has said, yep, house prices have had to fall. And 113 00:06:28,190 --> 00:06:29,910 S2: you've actually you've actually seen it in some of the 114 00:06:29,910 --> 00:06:34,070 S2: media complaints and the questioning, saying you're trying to destroy 115 00:06:34,070 --> 00:06:38,270 S2: the value of people's homes without. And they're taking it 116 00:06:38,270 --> 00:06:41,830 S2: from maybe their, their listeners or their readers or from 117 00:06:41,830 --> 00:06:43,870 S2: whoever's watching them. But you get once you get out 118 00:06:43,870 --> 00:06:46,950 S2: into the field and ask people, there's a whole different feeling. 119 00:06:46,950 --> 00:06:49,430 S2: And I want to touch on something else in the 120 00:06:49,430 --> 00:06:53,590 S2: polling because someone might say, well, you're asking this question 121 00:06:53,589 --> 00:06:56,710 S2: about house prices. It's we're not asking about what about 122 00:06:56,710 --> 00:06:59,790 S2: if your house price falls. Or the fact we did 123 00:06:59,830 --> 00:07:02,870 S2: ask this question. We did this in this specific one. 124 00:07:03,510 --> 00:07:06,790 S2: And again, the number, the proportion of people say, I don't, 125 00:07:06,790 --> 00:07:10,390 S2: I only want my house price to go up 15%. 126 00:07:10,390 --> 00:07:16,150 S2: So we're talking we've asked these people, your house, 15%, 17% 127 00:07:16,150 --> 00:07:19,190 S2: amongst those who own their own home. So that's telling 128 00:07:19,190 --> 00:07:22,590 S2: you hold on. The number of people saying house prices 129 00:07:22,590 --> 00:07:25,790 S2: continue to go up. That's a good thing. Is less 130 00:07:25,790 --> 00:07:28,790 S2: than 1 in 5. You don't win any election with 131 00:07:28,790 --> 00:07:29,630 S2: that argument. 132 00:07:29,790 --> 00:07:31,430 S3: So I'm just curious, how do you square. 133 00:07:31,430 --> 00:07:34,710 S1: That, that people across the age, demographics in particular are 134 00:07:34,750 --> 00:07:37,710 S1: for house prices going down? Like it's one thing, of course, 135 00:07:37,750 --> 00:07:40,430 S1: for people in the younger age groups, you would expect 136 00:07:40,430 --> 00:07:42,870 S1: them to want, of course, house prices to go down 137 00:07:42,870 --> 00:07:45,510 S1: because how else are they supposed to get into the market? 138 00:07:45,510 --> 00:07:47,830 S1: But how do you square that? The older people who 139 00:07:47,830 --> 00:07:51,310 S1: have answered this are also in support of house prices 140 00:07:51,310 --> 00:07:52,030 S1: going down. 141 00:07:52,470 --> 00:07:54,790 S2: I think Labour could claim that they've won the political 142 00:07:54,790 --> 00:07:58,140 S2: argument around the fact. And you can you hear it 143 00:07:58,140 --> 00:08:01,540 S2: from Anthony Albanese quite often. No one says to me 144 00:08:01,540 --> 00:08:05,580 S2: that the housing market is working properly. No one says 145 00:08:05,580 --> 00:08:09,140 S2: the housing market is not broken. And I think the 146 00:08:09,140 --> 00:08:13,220 S2: last ten, 15 years where we've got to this point, 147 00:08:13,260 --> 00:08:16,020 S2: the tipping point in terms of the political argument has 148 00:08:16,020 --> 00:08:20,580 S2: been reached, like the the the lowest support and this 149 00:08:20,580 --> 00:08:24,500 S2: is for lower house prices is amongst over 50 fives, 150 00:08:24,980 --> 00:08:29,060 S2: but that is still 58%. So more than half. So 151 00:08:29,060 --> 00:08:34,900 S2: you go. Yep. Even even older Xers and boomers. And 152 00:08:34,900 --> 00:08:37,420 S2: remember there are fewer boomers in the population now like 153 00:08:37,420 --> 00:08:41,059 S2: they are. They are dying. There's no way getting around that. 154 00:08:41,179 --> 00:08:44,780 S2: But over that, over 55, these two these few polls 155 00:08:44,780 --> 00:08:47,939 S2: are actually telling you the political argument for the last ten, 156 00:08:47,940 --> 00:08:53,980 S2: 15 years has, has finally seeped into the consciousness of people. 157 00:08:53,980 --> 00:08:58,020 S2: The fact that you've had a whole budget Really are 158 00:08:58,140 --> 00:09:02,420 S2: shaped around housing affordability. The government has been banging on 159 00:09:02,420 --> 00:09:05,620 S2: about this. Really, the population says the best way is 160 00:09:05,660 --> 00:09:07,300 S2: actually to make house prices cheaper. 161 00:09:12,179 --> 00:09:13,100 S1: After the break. 162 00:09:13,700 --> 00:09:16,860 S2: We have literally stuffed up housing for a generation more 163 00:09:16,860 --> 00:09:19,380 S2: than 30 years. We've really managed to do that all 164 00:09:19,380 --> 00:09:22,540 S2: by ourselves. And I think these sorts of polls are 165 00:09:22,540 --> 00:09:24,620 S2: suggesting that the public has woken up and said, we 166 00:09:24,620 --> 00:09:26,100 S2: just can't do it no more. 167 00:09:36,140 --> 00:09:39,700 S4: Virginia Giuffre helped vanquish a prince and a millionaire. 168 00:09:39,980 --> 00:09:42,500 S5: And I won't stop fighting. I will never be silenced. 169 00:09:43,140 --> 00:09:46,020 S4: But one of her toughest battles was a very private one. 170 00:09:46,700 --> 00:09:49,100 S6: It was the worst thing that could have happened to her. 171 00:09:49,140 --> 00:09:52,260 S6: Her children were her life. 172 00:09:53,420 --> 00:09:57,220 S4: Virginia, a podcast from the newsrooms of the age, The 173 00:09:57,220 --> 00:10:00,660 S4: Sydney Morning Herald and WA today out now. 174 00:10:05,380 --> 00:10:06,100 S3: So how might this. 175 00:10:06,100 --> 00:10:08,700 S1: Play for the coalition? I mean this is just one 176 00:10:08,700 --> 00:10:12,340 S1: more issue in which they can essentially not hammer labor 177 00:10:12,340 --> 00:10:14,260 S1: on for getting it wrong. Do you think. 178 00:10:14,300 --> 00:10:16,340 S2: I think they've got to change a bit of their 179 00:10:16,500 --> 00:10:20,900 S2: their argument in terms of don't follow the loudest voice 180 00:10:20,900 --> 00:10:24,380 S2: on talkback radio and say it's end of days with 181 00:10:24,380 --> 00:10:26,940 S2: house prices falling. The other thing in our polling, we 182 00:10:26,980 --> 00:10:31,180 S2: we did pick up that support for the government's capital 183 00:10:31,179 --> 00:10:36,220 S2: gains tax changes and its negative gearing changes. Support has 184 00:10:36,220 --> 00:10:41,060 S2: climbed over the last month. Opposition has fallen and there's 185 00:10:41,059 --> 00:10:45,900 S2: a bigger group who are unsure. So remember again a 186 00:10:45,900 --> 00:10:50,459 S2: huge amount of noise. So maybe the argument is getting 187 00:10:50,460 --> 00:10:53,300 S2: through to the public. Like these are still like it's 188 00:10:53,300 --> 00:10:57,700 S2: still tenuous. Like you're still not getting the huge support 189 00:10:57,700 --> 00:11:00,980 S2: for falling house prices that the rest of the poll shows. 190 00:11:00,980 --> 00:11:05,100 S2: But there is an awareness that those policies, the very 191 00:11:05,100 --> 00:11:08,420 S2: loud arguments against them that we're seeing in some quarters, 192 00:11:08,780 --> 00:11:11,980 S2: is actually going backwards, not going forwards in terms of 193 00:11:11,980 --> 00:11:13,300 S2: support for the change. 194 00:11:13,340 --> 00:11:14,380 S3: And Shane, I wanted to ask. 195 00:11:14,380 --> 00:11:17,100 S1: You, I mean, if this this trend in large percentage 196 00:11:17,260 --> 00:11:20,260 S1: of the electorate supporting the drop in housing prices, if 197 00:11:20,260 --> 00:11:23,940 S1: this trend actually is sustained, might this actually impact future 198 00:11:23,940 --> 00:11:27,620 S1: tax or political policy that could perhaps even bring a 199 00:11:27,620 --> 00:11:30,420 S1: greater drop in housing prices? Do you think. 200 00:11:30,820 --> 00:11:33,740 S2: In terms of the tax fall that falls on the 201 00:11:33,780 --> 00:11:37,059 S2: it hits the states because they're the ones who collect 202 00:11:37,500 --> 00:11:41,860 S2: stamp duty, but that is actually based on turnover. So 203 00:11:42,100 --> 00:11:44,260 S2: there is an argument that if you get more turnover 204 00:11:44,260 --> 00:11:48,060 S2: of housing stock, then you can offset the fall that 205 00:11:48,059 --> 00:11:51,420 S2: comes because of the drop in value. Local councils different story. 206 00:11:51,500 --> 00:11:55,500 S2: They're trying to value land. So like most rates council 207 00:11:55,570 --> 00:11:58,410 S2: rates are based off the value of land as opposed 208 00:11:58,410 --> 00:12:00,930 S2: to the house. On top of it. Lots of people think, oh, 209 00:12:00,970 --> 00:12:03,730 S2: my house is worth X. It's actually the land that 210 00:12:03,730 --> 00:12:06,250 S2: councils are trying to get at the value. So yeah, 211 00:12:06,290 --> 00:12:08,730 S2: there are ripple effects. Like the biggest ripple effect is 212 00:12:08,730 --> 00:12:11,850 S2: actually through the banking system. If you had a big 213 00:12:11,850 --> 00:12:15,610 S2: fall in the price of in the value of homes, 214 00:12:15,610 --> 00:12:20,490 S2: because our big four banks, their big real estate agencies effectively. 215 00:12:20,490 --> 00:12:23,530 S2: And so, so much of what they lend out on 216 00:12:23,530 --> 00:12:26,250 S2: is based on the value of the home. So this 217 00:12:26,250 --> 00:12:29,890 S2: would actually go, it would force those banks possibly to 218 00:12:29,929 --> 00:12:31,290 S2: rethink where they're going. 219 00:12:31,330 --> 00:12:33,569 S1: How might that look? Practically, what might it force banks 220 00:12:33,570 --> 00:12:34,210 S1: to do? 221 00:12:34,330 --> 00:12:37,050 S2: If you follow through the logic of the argument, you'd say, well, 222 00:12:37,090 --> 00:12:40,130 S2: you'd get a tightening of credit availability. 223 00:12:40,410 --> 00:12:41,010 S1: Right? 224 00:12:41,250 --> 00:12:44,770 S2: However, if the fall in the value of houses is 225 00:12:44,770 --> 00:12:48,850 S2: larger than the drop in credit availability, it means you 226 00:12:48,850 --> 00:12:50,850 S2: and I, Sammy, we go out to buy our dream 227 00:12:50,850 --> 00:12:55,050 S2: home together. We don't need as big a mortgage, so 228 00:12:55,250 --> 00:12:57,730 S2: the bank doesn't have to lend us as much. And 229 00:12:57,730 --> 00:13:00,170 S2: this is where part of the problem is. And I 230 00:13:00,170 --> 00:13:02,850 S2: think this is what's showing up in this these figures, 231 00:13:02,850 --> 00:13:06,290 S2: is that people look at more average mortgages that are 232 00:13:06,370 --> 00:13:13,370 S2: nationally around $750,000 and going, that's ludicrous. And it's hard 233 00:13:13,370 --> 00:13:16,330 S2: to argue with with that gut feel that a mortgage, 234 00:13:16,330 --> 00:13:19,970 S2: that size and the social ramifications. I think you and 235 00:13:19,970 --> 00:13:22,090 S2: I have talked about this. We know that it's affecting 236 00:13:22,130 --> 00:13:26,850 S2: fertility rates. Yes we have young people are coupling later 237 00:13:26,850 --> 00:13:29,209 S2: and they're putting off having children or they're not having 238 00:13:29,210 --> 00:13:32,890 S2: children because they have a mortgage they can't jump over, 239 00:13:32,929 --> 00:13:35,050 S2: let alone with a child or two in the on 240 00:13:35,090 --> 00:13:38,569 S2: their back. There's no way. So there are social ramifications, 241 00:13:38,570 --> 00:13:41,410 S2: let alone the fiscal and economic ramifications. 242 00:13:41,809 --> 00:13:43,210 S1: Well, this is what I wanted to wrap up by 243 00:13:43,210 --> 00:13:46,570 S1: asking you, Shane, was what economic ramifications might we see 244 00:13:46,610 --> 00:13:49,209 S1: a little bit down the track from this particular trend 245 00:13:49,210 --> 00:13:51,090 S1: or this feeling within the electorate? 246 00:13:51,210 --> 00:13:55,490 S2: Look, if all sides of politics are on side and 247 00:13:55,490 --> 00:14:00,050 S2: accept that. Yeah. We just can't keep driving up house 248 00:14:00,050 --> 00:14:04,010 S2: prices and, and looking at house prices as if it's, uh, 249 00:14:04,050 --> 00:14:07,489 S2: with down at the tab, like it's a betting market almost. 250 00:14:08,290 --> 00:14:12,010 S2: Then that element of the political debate that has really 251 00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:15,130 S2: been an issue for the last 20, 25 years may 252 00:14:15,170 --> 00:14:19,690 S2: actually quieten. And you'd think then that allows both sides 253 00:14:19,690 --> 00:14:24,490 S2: of politics to get into other policy issues where there 254 00:14:24,490 --> 00:14:29,650 S2: may be more economic or social ramifications, because, like, we 255 00:14:29,650 --> 00:14:33,690 S2: have literally stuffed up housing for a generation more than 256 00:14:33,690 --> 00:14:36,970 S2: 30 years. We've really managed to do that all by ourselves. 257 00:14:37,170 --> 00:14:39,770 S2: And I think these sorts of polls are suggesting that 258 00:14:39,770 --> 00:14:41,690 S2: the public has woken up and said, we just can't 259 00:14:41,690 --> 00:14:42,730 S2: do it no more. 260 00:14:42,810 --> 00:14:44,890 S1: So what does that mean that politicians will focus on 261 00:14:44,890 --> 00:14:47,490 S1: what instead? Might this better us in another way, that 262 00:14:47,490 --> 00:14:51,530 S1: these polls don't necessarily speak to economically people? 263 00:14:51,530 --> 00:14:54,450 S2: We talk a lot about productivity. Building a house is 264 00:14:54,450 --> 00:14:56,650 S2: not productive. Yet it gives us shelter. 265 00:14:56,850 --> 00:14:57,210 S1: Mhm. 266 00:14:57,410 --> 00:15:00,570 S2: But it doesn't enable the economy to grow faster, to 267 00:15:00,610 --> 00:15:02,930 S2: produce goods and services more efficiently. 268 00:15:02,930 --> 00:15:04,810 S1: And that's a big problem for us right now at 269 00:15:04,810 --> 00:15:07,450 S1: the moment. We are not having good productivity. We're not 270 00:15:07,450 --> 00:15:08,810 S1: having good economic growth. 271 00:15:08,850 --> 00:15:12,610 S2: No, no. Productivity has slowed to almost a standstill, partly 272 00:15:12,610 --> 00:15:15,530 S2: because we are spending as a community. We put more 273 00:15:15,530 --> 00:15:20,370 S2: and more money into bricks and mortar. So if you think, right, 274 00:15:20,370 --> 00:15:22,450 S2: we're not having we've decided, no, we're not going to 275 00:15:22,690 --> 00:15:26,170 S2: continue to do that. Well, where does where does the income, 276 00:15:26,170 --> 00:15:29,410 S2: where does money flow? It flows into ideas. It flows 277 00:15:29,410 --> 00:15:34,090 S2: into business. It flows into better services. So you can 278 00:15:34,090 --> 00:15:38,450 S2: see like the the share of the housing market as 279 00:15:38,450 --> 00:15:41,610 S2: a proportion of the overall economy. There are some estimates 280 00:15:41,610 --> 00:15:44,450 S2: that it's actually larger than the mining sector. What we 281 00:15:44,450 --> 00:15:48,090 S2: do around around housing, be it from construction to real 282 00:15:48,090 --> 00:15:53,530 S2: estate agencies to the the conveyancing industry. I think you 283 00:15:53,530 --> 00:15:56,890 S2: could mount an argument. That's probably not the best way 284 00:15:56,890 --> 00:16:00,730 S2: to use the national economic output. I think there are 285 00:16:00,730 --> 00:16:04,130 S2: better things to do than just Italian flash splashbacks in 286 00:16:04,130 --> 00:16:08,330 S2: the kitchen. Whether that's an important development or whether improving 287 00:16:08,330 --> 00:16:13,010 S2: our transport network, improving the just generating ideas that can 288 00:16:13,050 --> 00:16:17,170 S2: transform the economy and give people the prospect of employment 289 00:16:17,170 --> 00:16:20,770 S2: in the future. But I think that's where, like a policy, 290 00:16:20,890 --> 00:16:25,210 S2: a slow moving policy mistake for 30 years is finally 291 00:16:25,210 --> 00:16:26,450 S2: going to get addressed. 292 00:16:26,570 --> 00:16:30,330 S1: So this is the slow moving train crash, essentially. It's 293 00:16:30,330 --> 00:16:33,170 S1: finally coming to a halt. Is this what's going to happen? 294 00:16:33,450 --> 00:16:37,290 S2: I don't I'm not convinced. But there are positive signs 295 00:16:37,290 --> 00:16:39,610 S2: that maybe we've got there. Maybe. 296 00:16:39,650 --> 00:16:42,010 S1: What would you need to see to to be convinced 297 00:16:42,010 --> 00:16:45,370 S1: that yes, we are finally this this slow moving train crash, 298 00:16:45,370 --> 00:16:48,810 S1: which is to say economic policy that has driven prices 299 00:16:48,810 --> 00:16:51,530 S1: up and up and up for, you know, 30 or 300 00:16:51,530 --> 00:16:54,800 S1: more years. What would you need to see that would say, yes, 301 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:55,840 S1: we're done with that now. 302 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:57,800 S2: Well, you and I come back and do this podcast 303 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,120 S2: in five years and we'll say, right. First, home ownership 304 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:05,320 S2: is up. The average size mortgage is lower or has 305 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:09,359 S2: not moved in that five years. Um, construction costs in 306 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,440 S2: the housing sector have come down. There is more movement. 307 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,040 S2: People are moving a bit more like we. There is 308 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:18,560 S2: a clear sign that house, high house prices and the 309 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:23,080 S2: stamp duties around them. They prevent people from moving around 310 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:26,399 S2: and moving around to the jobs. The better paying jobs, 311 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,720 S2: the jobs that are better suited to what they can do. 312 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,800 S2: We can talk about the fact that home ownership rates 313 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:36,040 S2: amongst people under the age of 35 have started lifting. 314 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,040 S2: That would be the biggest test. 315 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,600 S1: Thank you so much, Shane, for your time. 316 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:47,840 S2: It is always a pleasure to talk to you, Sammy. 317 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:01,240 S1: In other news today, gaps in major tech platforms monitoring 318 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:05,600 S1: measures are allowing sexual extortion that's typically targeting young men 319 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,639 S1: to thrive in Australia, according to a new report from 320 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:14,560 S1: Australia's online safety regulator. And Los Angeles based Australian chef 321 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:18,720 S1: Curtis Stone will open his first Australian restaurant, a 100 322 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:23,160 S1: seat harbourside restaurant, at the incoming Waldorf Astoria, Sydney, at 323 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:29,000 S1: Circular Quay. You can read more at the age.com.au or smh.com.au. 324 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:35,080 S1: Today's episode was produced by Josh towers. Our executive producer 325 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,680 S1: is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa 326 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:42,639 S1: Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, follow 327 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,000 S1: the Morning Edition and leave a review for us on 328 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,800 S1: Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.