1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:05,760 S1: Welcome to Inside Politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, and I'm coming 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:10,560 S1: at you from The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Well, 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:13,119 S1: the drama between the liberals and the nationals continued this 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,800 S1: week with what appears to be a total breakdown in 5 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,840 S1: the relationship between liberals leader Sussan Ley and Nationals leader 6 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:24,919 S1: David Littleproud. Meanwhile, Sussan Ley leadership remains in mortal peril 7 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,080 S1: and in a plot twist, David Littleproud now faces his 8 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:32,400 S1: own leadership challenge next week. I'm very pleased to be 9 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,440 S1: back from summer holidays with my podcasting partner in crime, 10 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:37,919 S1: our chief political correspondent Paul Chuckle. Hi Paul. 11 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:39,640 S2: So good to have you back. 12 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:42,080 S1: It's good to be back. And you know, we're really 13 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,760 S1: hitting the ground running this week. It's getting so crazy 14 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,720 S1: and dramatic there in Canberra that I almost feel like 15 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,080 S1: it needs to be its own reality TV show, like 16 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,000 S1: I'm a coalition MP. Get me out of here or something. 17 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,920 S1: The brand damage, as we were just saying, is totally incalculable, 18 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:57,680 S1: I think, to both of the coalition partners. But I 19 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,420 S1: just want to ask what the split actually means in 20 00:01:00,420 --> 00:01:03,500 S1: practical terms, because I feel like they're still fighting over 21 00:01:03,500 --> 00:01:07,420 S1: the sort of headline stuff, but nobody's really talked about 22 00:01:07,420 --> 00:01:10,340 S1: what it will mean in terms of, you know, opposition 23 00:01:10,340 --> 00:01:14,300 S1: party funding shadow ministerships. Dare I say it, you know, 24 00:01:14,340 --> 00:01:16,539 S1: the policies that we're supposed to be seeing from the 25 00:01:16,540 --> 00:01:19,979 S1: Liberal Party this year, even just whether or not they're 26 00:01:19,980 --> 00:01:22,580 S1: going to sort of meet or talk to each other. 27 00:01:22,620 --> 00:01:24,459 S1: What's your sort of understanding of how it's going to 28 00:01:24,500 --> 00:01:25,380 S1: work in practice? 29 00:01:25,700 --> 00:01:29,539 S2: Well, you mentioned some reality TV show names there. Shaun Carney, 30 00:01:29,580 --> 00:01:35,820 S2: our excellent political columnist, today channelled succession, the dramatic fictional 31 00:01:35,819 --> 00:01:38,060 S2: version of the of the Murdoch family, which was a 32 00:01:38,060 --> 00:01:40,780 S2: super popular show in his column today when he said 33 00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:44,420 S2: that in reference to coalition MPs. These are not serious people. 34 00:01:44,500 --> 00:01:44,860 S1: Yeah. 35 00:01:45,300 --> 00:01:47,060 S2: Which I think probably struck true to a lot of 36 00:01:47,060 --> 00:01:48,980 S2: people watching the coalition over summer. 37 00:01:49,020 --> 00:01:51,820 S1: Yeah. Which is famously what Logan Roy, the patriarch, says 38 00:01:51,820 --> 00:01:55,380 S1: about his wayward children. Um, and I mean, I think 39 00:01:55,380 --> 00:01:58,590 S1: it is extraordinary that, you know, the leaders of two 40 00:01:58,590 --> 00:02:02,510 S1: major political parties which have this long, historically storied traditions 41 00:02:02,510 --> 00:02:05,870 S1: and which have traditionally been the party of government together. 42 00:02:06,070 --> 00:02:09,310 S1: More often than not in Australian history, you know, can't 43 00:02:09,310 --> 00:02:11,910 S1: come to terms. They apparently can't stand each other to 44 00:02:11,950 --> 00:02:13,950 S1: the point where they can't even have a phone call, 45 00:02:14,070 --> 00:02:15,790 S1: let alone be in the same room with each other. 46 00:02:15,830 --> 00:02:19,590 S1: There's talk of David Littleproud having shouted at Susan Lee 47 00:02:19,630 --> 00:02:23,950 S1: down the phone. In any other organisation, any Australian, any listener, 48 00:02:23,990 --> 00:02:26,230 S1: you know, listening to this will know that in their 49 00:02:26,230 --> 00:02:29,910 S1: own workplaces this kind of behaviour would be completely unacceptable. 50 00:02:30,150 --> 00:02:33,230 S1: I mean, it's it's kind of extraordinary, isn't it? 51 00:02:33,590 --> 00:02:35,750 S2: You often hear this said about politics that this kind 52 00:02:35,750 --> 00:02:39,030 S2: of behaviour wouldn't be acceptable anywhere else. And there are 53 00:02:39,030 --> 00:02:41,390 S2: so many exceptions in this world and there's like toxic 54 00:02:41,389 --> 00:02:45,110 S2: relationships and shouting matches. The stakes are high. And, you know, 55 00:02:45,150 --> 00:02:47,470 S2: when the public gets an insight into it through a 56 00:02:47,669 --> 00:02:51,309 S2: debacle like this one, where there's lots of reporting and interviews, 57 00:02:51,310 --> 00:02:54,750 S2: where questions are asked about private conversations, it all looks 58 00:02:54,750 --> 00:02:58,410 S2: extremely ugly and it cements in the minds of many 59 00:02:58,410 --> 00:03:01,169 S2: voters what they suspect about Canberra, which is that it's 60 00:03:01,169 --> 00:03:03,609 S2: a bit of a cesspit. People are power hungry. There 61 00:03:03,610 --> 00:03:06,850 S2: are huge egos everywhere. And for the coalition, which has 62 00:03:06,850 --> 00:03:11,930 S2: spent years trying to repair its image as the kind 63 00:03:11,930 --> 00:03:15,649 S2: of competent party which they have so often been seen 64 00:03:15,810 --> 00:03:18,169 S2: since World War two, where they've been in government for 65 00:03:18,169 --> 00:03:21,210 S2: about two thirds or just more of the time since 66 00:03:21,210 --> 00:03:25,410 S2: World War two. That's been shattered. And from just a 67 00:03:25,410 --> 00:03:27,850 S2: few weeks ago, when I think we were talking about 68 00:03:27,850 --> 00:03:30,730 S2: this earlier in the week, jacki, where the government looked 69 00:03:30,730 --> 00:03:33,169 S2: on the ropes a little bit. Polling showed the Prime 70 00:03:33,169 --> 00:03:36,290 S2: Minister's response to Bondi was in the minds of a 71 00:03:36,290 --> 00:03:40,890 S2: majority of voters, poor for that political ascendancy, which was 72 00:03:40,890 --> 00:03:43,170 S2: probably more fragile than we realised at the time over 73 00:03:43,170 --> 00:03:45,690 S2: the summer for Sussan Ley. For that to have been 74 00:03:45,690 --> 00:03:48,050 S2: ceded so quickly and for them to be in this 75 00:03:48,050 --> 00:03:51,090 S2: state they're in now is quite extraordinary. Just in terms 76 00:03:51,090 --> 00:03:52,570 S2: of where the split is at, it's a it's a 77 00:03:52,570 --> 00:03:56,180 S2: technical point, but not been noted probably enough even by 78 00:03:56,220 --> 00:03:59,980 S2: me in the reporting. The split hasn't been formalized yet. 79 00:04:00,140 --> 00:04:02,700 S2: So last week, when this blowup occurred in Parliament, we 80 00:04:02,700 --> 00:04:05,980 S2: know the nationals senators who were in the shadow the 81 00:04:06,140 --> 00:04:09,420 S2: formal opposition shadow cabinet handed in their resignations because they 82 00:04:09,420 --> 00:04:12,660 S2: breached shadow cabinet solidarity on on Labor's hate speech laws. 83 00:04:13,260 --> 00:04:16,940 S2: Sussan Ley accepted those resignations because she agreed that they 84 00:04:16,980 --> 00:04:19,380 S2: had done the wrong thing, even though David Littleproud says 85 00:04:19,380 --> 00:04:22,180 S2: she should not have accepted those resignations, which is quite 86 00:04:22,180 --> 00:04:25,780 S2: an odd argument. She did accept them, but all of 87 00:04:25,779 --> 00:04:30,420 S2: the subsequent resignations that David Littleproud and his other frontbenchers 88 00:04:30,460 --> 00:04:34,740 S2: put to Sussan Ley, effectively in solidarity with their nationals colleagues, 89 00:04:34,740 --> 00:04:37,940 S2: have not yet been accepted formally by Sussan Ley, and 90 00:04:37,940 --> 00:04:40,380 S2: the pair are yet to have a patch up conversation, 91 00:04:40,660 --> 00:04:44,179 S2: which I think is not likely to yield anything but 92 00:04:44,420 --> 00:04:48,700 S2: could potentially yield a resolution before Parliament returns next week. 93 00:04:49,060 --> 00:04:51,820 S2: So we're still in this kind of point of stasis 94 00:04:51,820 --> 00:04:54,760 S2: where the nationals have said they cannot not serve in 95 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,240 S2: Susan Lee's shadow cabinet. Susan Lee has not put liberals 96 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,000 S2: in the positions that were once held by nationals, and 97 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:05,640 S2: the nationals have not yet created this unorthodox novel kind 98 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,760 S2: of shadow shadow frontbench, which David Littleproud says he will 99 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,360 S2: do because there are many members of both the nationals 100 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,880 S2: and the Liberal parties who, behind the scenes, are working 101 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,080 S2: really hard to patch this up. It's very hard to 102 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,280 S2: see how that happens with the two leaders in their positions, 103 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,760 S2: because they've both climbed up to these positions where it 104 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,800 S2: will be very hard to come down from. But we 105 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:25,440 S2: still haven't formalized the split. 106 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,800 S1: Yeah. If they were to formalise the split and as 107 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,920 S1: you say, they've both painting themselves into a corner, it's 108 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:33,760 S1: very hard to see how they can patch it up. 109 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,280 S1: But at the same time, everywhere you look at it, 110 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:40,240 S1: it's untenable, particularly for the nationals, I think, to be 111 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,240 S1: running their own show. I mean, on a basic level, 112 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,039 S1: you know, the shadow ministries that the nationals have now, 113 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,000 S1: you know, these nationals members have now given up. They 114 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,080 S1: come with an extra $60,000 in pay. Okay. They've taken 115 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,690 S1: a big pay cut. These people, they come with more staff, 116 00:05:53,690 --> 00:05:56,370 S1: they come with better offices. So that will all be gone, 117 00:05:56,370 --> 00:05:58,850 S1: which is a huge sort of funding hole really, for 118 00:05:58,850 --> 00:06:01,730 S1: the nationals to be running their own show. Um, they'll 119 00:06:01,770 --> 00:06:05,650 S1: apparently have to be doing separate policy making and an election. 120 00:06:05,650 --> 00:06:08,850 S1: What would it mean? Because, you know, traditionally nationals and 121 00:06:08,850 --> 00:06:11,530 S1: liberals don't run against each other. There are certain seats 122 00:06:11,529 --> 00:06:14,770 S1: where you could even maybe even get a four pointed contest. And, 123 00:06:14,810 --> 00:06:18,290 S1: you know, with one nation in there as well. Preference flows. 124 00:06:18,290 --> 00:06:20,369 S1: And then, of course, there's the question of the Senate, 125 00:06:20,370 --> 00:06:23,289 S1: because our colleague James Massola had a really interesting story 126 00:06:23,290 --> 00:06:26,450 S1: this week, pointing out that the Nats, particularly in New 127 00:06:26,450 --> 00:06:28,330 S1: South Wales, at least if they were not on the 128 00:06:28,330 --> 00:06:31,570 S1: coalition Senate ticket, they would maybe not win a seat 129 00:06:31,570 --> 00:06:35,729 S1: at all, or they might win one. So they're basically 130 00:06:35,770 --> 00:06:39,330 S1: subsidised or, you know, cross-subsidised by the liberals, particularly in 131 00:06:39,330 --> 00:06:43,050 S1: the upper house. I mean, they're just a sort of 132 00:06:43,089 --> 00:06:45,890 S1: spent political force. If they're not with the liberals, aren't they? 133 00:06:46,490 --> 00:06:50,809 S2: Well, the nationals have always been able to expand their 134 00:06:50,810 --> 00:06:54,950 S2: appeal and demonstrate to voters that they are a kind 135 00:06:54,950 --> 00:06:58,950 S2: of bigger and more substantive party in terms of their, uh, 136 00:06:58,990 --> 00:07:01,510 S2: what they can achieve in politics because of their link 137 00:07:01,510 --> 00:07:03,750 S2: with the Liberal Party. Yeah. You're able to tell a 138 00:07:03,750 --> 00:07:05,830 S2: regional voter, if you're a nationals MP, that if you 139 00:07:05,830 --> 00:07:08,390 S2: vote for me, we are part of a coalition. We 140 00:07:08,390 --> 00:07:11,190 S2: will then have a deputy prime minister as our party leader, 141 00:07:11,190 --> 00:07:15,070 S2: and we'll affect change through government that benefits regional voters. 142 00:07:15,230 --> 00:07:18,310 S2: Without the Liberal Party there obviously unable to do that. 143 00:07:18,310 --> 00:07:20,830 S2: And because the Liberal Party is now being diminished in 144 00:07:20,830 --> 00:07:24,950 S2: the cities so severely, they also, to form government need 145 00:07:24,950 --> 00:07:27,990 S2: the national party, because those four, five, six, seven, eight 146 00:07:27,990 --> 00:07:30,870 S2: seats in the House, uh, are what they need to, 147 00:07:30,910 --> 00:07:32,510 S2: you know, I mean, they're nowhere near government at the moment, 148 00:07:32,510 --> 00:07:34,630 S2: but they need them as well. Uh, and then to 149 00:07:34,670 --> 00:07:38,670 S2: the point of pay and positions, you're spot on. I mean, 150 00:07:38,710 --> 00:07:41,990 S2: all of these nationals frontbenchers who have quit over coming weeks, 151 00:07:41,990 --> 00:07:44,910 S2: unless this is somehow patched up, which is very unlikely, 152 00:07:44,950 --> 00:07:49,390 S2: we'll lose multiple staff each. Those staff have families. They 153 00:07:49,390 --> 00:07:53,810 S2: will lose $60,000 in pay themselves. And for senators like 154 00:07:53,810 --> 00:07:57,570 S2: Bridget McKenzie and Ross Caddell, two of the MPs who 155 00:07:57,610 --> 00:08:00,489 S2: crossed the floor last week knowing what the consequence would be. 156 00:08:00,730 --> 00:08:04,050 S2: They probably, in two years time at the next election, 157 00:08:04,050 --> 00:08:06,650 S2: will lose their Senate positions because the way it works 158 00:08:06,650 --> 00:08:09,010 S2: for voters who didn't read our colleague James Massola story 159 00:08:09,010 --> 00:08:15,650 S2: is that those nationals senators every second election. So every, every, uh, 160 00:08:16,090 --> 00:08:17,890 S2: at the end of every six year term, there's a 161 00:08:18,410 --> 00:08:21,690 S2: nationals who has nationals politician who has the second spot 162 00:08:21,730 --> 00:08:24,570 S2: on the coalition's Senate ticket. If they were not on 163 00:08:24,610 --> 00:08:26,690 S2: that Senate ticket, they would need to get a quota 164 00:08:26,730 --> 00:08:30,450 S2: themselves as nationals politician, which is very hard. It will 165 00:08:30,450 --> 00:08:32,650 S2: almost never happen. And so they will not have a 166 00:08:32,650 --> 00:08:34,410 S2: position unless they're on the coalition ticket. 167 00:08:34,450 --> 00:08:34,810 S1: Yeah. 168 00:08:34,850 --> 00:08:37,490 S2: And Bridget McKenzie is distinctly aware of this. She talks 169 00:08:37,490 --> 00:08:39,770 S2: about it in private. And the fact that they've taken 170 00:08:39,770 --> 00:08:43,010 S2: this step, knowing the consequence on pay, on position, on staff, 171 00:08:43,450 --> 00:08:48,050 S2: goes to the depth of hostility between these two parties. 172 00:08:48,250 --> 00:08:51,500 S2: There is such an ideological gulf. There is such a 173 00:08:52,179 --> 00:08:56,220 S2: such a severe schism between some of the personalities, particularly 174 00:08:56,220 --> 00:08:58,939 S2: between David Littleproud and Sussan Ley, who for many years 175 00:08:58,940 --> 00:09:01,340 S2: not seen eye to eye and have shown various, at 176 00:09:01,340 --> 00:09:04,260 S2: various points, disrespect towards the other. And there's a feeling 177 00:09:04,260 --> 00:09:07,580 S2: in the Liberal Party, in both parties at the moment, 178 00:09:07,580 --> 00:09:11,380 S2: as they prepare for the first full parliamentary sittings next 179 00:09:11,380 --> 00:09:14,660 S2: week and the week after that, when this reality dawns 180 00:09:14,660 --> 00:09:18,260 S2: on the majority of members in the opposition that they 181 00:09:18,260 --> 00:09:21,620 S2: look like this rump in parliament. Albanese, who's a bit 182 00:09:21,620 --> 00:09:26,179 S2: of a master tactician and and and practitioner of the parliament, 183 00:09:26,179 --> 00:09:29,460 S2: will belittle them. They'll be made fun of in the corridors. 184 00:09:29,660 --> 00:09:32,540 S2: They'll just look like an absolute rabble. And maybe that 185 00:09:32,540 --> 00:09:37,340 S2: will spark the sense of urgency to heal this and 186 00:09:37,340 --> 00:09:41,900 S2: overcome the ego driven decision making that got them here 187 00:09:41,900 --> 00:09:42,740 S2: in the first place. 188 00:09:42,780 --> 00:09:44,820 S1: That may well be, and I hope it is, for 189 00:09:44,820 --> 00:09:46,940 S1: the sake of our democracy and the health of our democracy. 190 00:09:46,940 --> 00:09:49,600 S1: But the egos involved are so strong and they seem 191 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,040 S1: to be so myopic in their view. That's what I 192 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:56,360 S1: find so amazing, because even if you don't want to 193 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:00,320 S1: cooperate with your coalition partner shortly, you can see on 194 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,560 S1: some level your strategic interest, short term and long term 195 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:05,560 S1: in doing so, because neither of them can win an 196 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,480 S1: election without the other. But also just the enormous, enormous 197 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:13,320 S1: brand damage that is being done because you have ordinary 198 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,680 S1: voters looking at this. And, you know, as we as 199 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:17,640 S1: I was saying before, just thinking like I would get 200 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,680 S1: sacked for this behavior. How is it acceptable in elected representatives? 201 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,560 S1: And also, like, this was supposed to be the year 202 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:26,760 S1: when the liberals were actually going to give us some policy. 203 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,599 S1: I mean, they're supposed to be pushing out an immigration policy. 204 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,040 S1: We have stuff like, you know, the Chinese ambassador this 205 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:34,959 S1: week has come out and said that if Australia sells 206 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:38,560 S1: off the Port Darwin. Um, you know, takes Port Darwin 207 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,640 S1: off Chinese investors, then they will basically wage a new 208 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:46,000 S1: trade war. I'm kind of, you know, generalizing there, but 209 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,849 S1: these are major issues that, you know, particularly the coalition 210 00:10:48,850 --> 00:10:51,410 S1: should be all over. And they're just not they don't 211 00:10:51,410 --> 00:10:53,530 S1: have their eye on the game at all in terms 212 00:10:53,530 --> 00:10:57,050 S1: of what Australian, the Australian people want or policy development. 213 00:10:57,410 --> 00:10:59,610 S1: I find it actually really confounding. 214 00:10:59,690 --> 00:11:01,370 S2: The government's inflation narrative has. 215 00:11:01,410 --> 00:11:01,650 S1: Blown. 216 00:11:01,650 --> 00:11:05,050 S2: Up in its face this week, which is absolutely beautiful 217 00:11:05,090 --> 00:11:06,250 S2: terrain for the Liberal Party. 218 00:11:06,290 --> 00:11:08,770 S1: Yeah, and they've got a really, really strong argument there, 219 00:11:08,770 --> 00:11:10,890 S1: which is basically the Labor Party or, you know, labor 220 00:11:10,890 --> 00:11:13,090 S1: government has spent way too much money and it's pushing 221 00:11:13,090 --> 00:11:16,209 S1: up inflation and it's going to affect every single mortgage 222 00:11:16,410 --> 00:11:20,810 S1: mortgagee in the country when interest rates go up this week. Paul, 223 00:11:20,809 --> 00:11:22,410 S1: how do you see how do you see it sort 224 00:11:22,410 --> 00:11:26,330 S1: of playing out next week? Obviously Parliament comes back. David 225 00:11:26,330 --> 00:11:29,170 S1: Littleproud is going to face this sort of weird squib 226 00:11:29,170 --> 00:11:31,490 S1: of a challenge from Colin Boyce. What do you think's 227 00:11:31,490 --> 00:11:33,370 S1: going to happen there? First of all, will the challenge 228 00:11:33,370 --> 00:11:34,130 S1: even get up? 229 00:11:34,450 --> 00:11:37,490 S2: David Littleproud in a in a difficult position politically because 230 00:11:37,490 --> 00:11:40,810 S2: he's he's his authority has been dented by what's happened 231 00:11:40,809 --> 00:11:42,730 S2: in the last couple of weeks, particularly in terms of 232 00:11:42,770 --> 00:11:45,830 S2: the perceptions of him from his Liberal colleagues. There are 233 00:11:45,830 --> 00:11:47,830 S2: most people in the Liberal Party believe that if there 234 00:11:47,830 --> 00:11:50,310 S2: is to be a reconciliation at some point in the future, 235 00:11:50,309 --> 00:11:53,270 S2: David Littleproud can't be the nationals leader because he was 236 00:11:53,270 --> 00:11:56,830 S2: seen to have acted totally unreasonably by his Liberal colleagues 237 00:11:57,030 --> 00:11:59,550 S2: on the other side in the National Party, because there 238 00:11:59,550 --> 00:12:05,190 S2: is this sense of nationals exceptionalism, nationals parochialism in terms 239 00:12:05,190 --> 00:12:08,829 S2: of being hairy chested and muscular in their dealings with 240 00:12:08,990 --> 00:12:12,790 S2: their city based partners. It's galvanised the sense among the 241 00:12:12,790 --> 00:12:15,430 S2: nationals that, you know, we can go this alone. We 242 00:12:15,429 --> 00:12:18,670 S2: can be our own party, we can be for our 243 00:12:18,670 --> 00:12:22,590 S2: voters and not have to compromise and accommodate city based views, 244 00:12:22,590 --> 00:12:25,230 S2: which they haven't done much of in recent years anyway. 245 00:12:25,830 --> 00:12:28,750 S2: But this challenge from Colin Boyce next week, which has 246 00:12:28,750 --> 00:12:29,910 S2: come totally out of the blue. 247 00:12:30,350 --> 00:12:34,309 S3: We do have to get this coalition back together again. 248 00:12:34,550 --> 00:12:36,670 S3: It's a bit like trying to weld square pipe to 249 00:12:36,710 --> 00:12:40,470 S3: round pipe. Um, and that is why I will announce 250 00:12:40,470 --> 00:12:43,030 S3: to you right here today. You heard it first. I 251 00:12:43,030 --> 00:12:46,199 S3: will be moving a spill motion on Monday afternoon in 252 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,880 S3: the National Party party room to give my colleagues an 253 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:54,319 S3: option because, uh, the reality is, is they follow the 254 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,160 S3: course they're on. Now, we are going over the political cliff. 255 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:03,480 S2: Colin Boyce is a boilermaker from Gladstone, has very few 256 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,840 S2: allies in the party, was one of the closest MPs 257 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,440 S2: in the Nationals to Barnaby Joyce. He's been telling people 258 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,600 S2: privately that if he does leave the nationals, which is 259 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,480 S2: in prospect, he'll join the crossbench rather than one nation. 260 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,840 S2: So he's a rogue operator. He's thrown up this spill 261 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:22,720 S2: motion for this coming Monday. He may not even receive 262 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:24,959 S2: a seconder on this motion. You need a colleague to 263 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,280 S2: back a motion for it to be put for a vote. 264 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,760 S2: And then if it does get the seconder, it's almost 265 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:31,880 S2: certainly not going to get enough numbers. A majority of 266 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:34,720 S2: the 18 nationals MPs to get to a vote on 267 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,880 S2: the leadership, but just the raising up of the issue 268 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,920 S2: of David Littleproud's leadership will, I imagine, spark a conversation 269 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,940 S2: among some of the more ambitious nationals colleagues of Littleproud, 270 00:13:45,980 --> 00:13:50,059 S2: including Matt Canavan, Bridget McKenzie, Michael McCormack all of whom 271 00:13:50,059 --> 00:13:52,380 S2: would like to be the leader of the party. And 272 00:13:52,660 --> 00:13:55,900 S2: these rumblings are occurring already. You're hearing these talks behind 273 00:13:55,900 --> 00:13:58,340 S2: the scenes and the nationals about which are along the 274 00:13:58,340 --> 00:14:00,780 S2: lines of, okay, look, he's safe for now. He still 275 00:14:00,780 --> 00:14:03,059 S2: has the numbers, but in the long run, can this 276 00:14:03,059 --> 00:14:05,260 S2: guy still lead us? So it'll be interesting to see 277 00:14:05,260 --> 00:14:07,260 S2: how that plays out over a period of months. Not 278 00:14:07,260 --> 00:14:09,579 S2: as immediate as the Sussan Ley leadership troubles. 279 00:14:09,620 --> 00:14:11,460 S1: But I mean, that's the thing. Hasn't he just spelled 280 00:14:11,460 --> 00:14:14,100 S1: the cat because it's basically now, you know, David Littleproud 281 00:14:14,100 --> 00:14:16,100 S1: and Sussan Ley are so at odds with each other 282 00:14:16,100 --> 00:14:18,339 S1: that it's either, you know, the nationals have to decide 283 00:14:18,340 --> 00:14:21,260 S1: whether they want to keep David Littleproud in the leadership 284 00:14:21,300 --> 00:14:24,380 S1: in apparent perpetuity, or at least for the next election, say, 285 00:14:24,700 --> 00:14:27,420 S1: or go back into a coalition or put themselves in 286 00:14:27,420 --> 00:14:30,980 S1: a position where they're actually electable as a government. So 287 00:14:31,020 --> 00:14:33,460 S1: I don't know if I fancy, if I'd put money 288 00:14:33,460 --> 00:14:37,260 S1: on David Littleproud chances in that scenario, because self-interest will 289 00:14:37,300 --> 00:14:38,260 S1: will generally win. 290 00:14:38,300 --> 00:14:41,140 S2: I think that's a decent bet the nationals are notorious 291 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,680 S2: for pretty speedy leadership changes. Their party room is so 292 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,440 S2: small that you only ever need really 2 or 3 293 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,440 S2: votes to switch one way or the other, and that 294 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,440 S2: lead is dead. And Michael McCormack is is ambitious. Bridget 295 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:53,480 S2: McKenzie is ambitious. 296 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:55,840 S1: Yeah. And he sort of did what they wanted him 297 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:57,760 S1: to do, didn't they, in the sense that he convinced 298 00:14:57,800 --> 00:14:59,760 S1: he sort of strong armed Susan Layer. It looked a 299 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,080 S1: lot like he did, um, into dropping the coalition commitment 300 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:04,960 S1: to net zero, which is one of, you know, sort 301 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:07,880 S1: of the National party's major sort of ambitions, I suppose, 302 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,080 S1: within the coalition. Okay, let's talk about Sussan Ley, because 303 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:14,440 S1: she's not looking too hot. And as we record, actually, um, 304 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:18,120 S1: there's a funeral of the much respected MP Katie Allen 305 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,880 S1: in Melbourne, which both sides of politics are, I think, 306 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:24,160 S1: some memorial service which both sides of politics are attending, 307 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:29,400 S1: and Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie, you know, classic, classic 308 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:32,600 S1: politics were photographed sort of going into a meeting with 309 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,360 S1: each other right before this funeral. You know, it is 310 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,600 S1: a dirty game. It is a dirty it's a. 311 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,250 S2: Bit Shakespearian or something, having all this intrigue around a 312 00:15:40,290 --> 00:15:42,210 S2: funeral and plotting around a funeral. 313 00:15:42,250 --> 00:15:44,610 S1: Yeah, they're plotting their basically plotting to knock off their 314 00:15:44,610 --> 00:15:47,410 S1: leader right before going to honor the life of this, um, 315 00:15:47,450 --> 00:15:48,530 S1: of this politician. 316 00:15:48,570 --> 00:15:50,770 S2: I know Angus Taylor, by the way, has a strong 317 00:15:50,770 --> 00:15:53,610 S2: relationship with Katie Allen's husband, so I know that his 318 00:15:53,610 --> 00:15:55,890 S2: people are feeling a bit off about how this has 319 00:15:55,890 --> 00:15:57,610 S2: been portrayed, and they didn't mean it to be put 320 00:15:57,610 --> 00:16:01,450 S2: this way, but with Hastie being in Perth, this event happening, 321 00:16:01,450 --> 00:16:03,930 S2: it's it's unfortunately been caught up in the funeral debate. 322 00:16:03,970 --> 00:16:06,970 S1: Yeah. And Angus Taylor, as you've reported, has been overseas 323 00:16:06,970 --> 00:16:08,570 S1: for much of the summer. So this is the sort 324 00:16:08,570 --> 00:16:10,610 S1: of first time they're actually in the same city together. 325 00:16:10,810 --> 00:16:13,570 S1: And this happens to be the reason. But again, it 326 00:16:13,610 --> 00:16:15,810 S1: doesn't look so good. What do you think will come 327 00:16:15,810 --> 00:16:17,730 S1: out of that meeting or, you know, are they likely 328 00:16:17,730 --> 00:16:20,250 S1: to come to terms because it's hard to see Susan 329 00:16:20,250 --> 00:16:22,570 S1: Lee's leadership continuing for too much longer, isn't it? 330 00:16:22,610 --> 00:16:26,010 S2: Yeah. So for listeners to understand why that meeting is important, 331 00:16:26,010 --> 00:16:29,890 S2: it's because, in effect, it's not quite this precise, but 332 00:16:29,890 --> 00:16:32,370 S2: half the party room is moderate and half the party 333 00:16:32,370 --> 00:16:35,890 S2: room are conservatives. It chops and changes. The conservatives probably 334 00:16:35,930 --> 00:16:38,530 S2: have a slight edge, but for an alternative leader to 335 00:16:38,570 --> 00:16:41,390 S2: beat Susan Lee in a leadership ballot. The right the 336 00:16:41,390 --> 00:16:44,030 S2: conservative side will need to be united behind one. If 337 00:16:44,030 --> 00:16:46,550 S2: there's two candidates from the right, that half will be 338 00:16:46,550 --> 00:16:50,550 S2: split 2,525% and the moderate candidate being Susan Lee will 339 00:16:50,550 --> 00:16:53,150 S2: will stick that in the job. So until Andrew Hastie 340 00:16:53,150 --> 00:16:55,070 S2: and Angus Taylor can come to a resolution on who 341 00:16:55,110 --> 00:16:58,870 S2: the right wing candidate is, this leadership spill ain't happening. Um, 342 00:16:58,870 --> 00:17:01,190 S2: the last couple of weeks has been pretty fascinating. So 343 00:17:01,230 --> 00:17:03,550 S2: this coalition blow up, which was in the minds of 344 00:17:03,550 --> 00:17:07,750 S2: most liberals, precipitated by David Littleproud, even though Susan Lee 345 00:17:07,750 --> 00:17:10,310 S2: kind of created the environment for herself to be smarted 346 00:17:10,310 --> 00:17:13,030 S2: in such a way because her vociferous calls to come 347 00:17:13,030 --> 00:17:16,510 S2: back for Parliament were, in hindsight, rash and put the 348 00:17:16,510 --> 00:17:19,869 S2: party in a in a precarious position once they came back. 349 00:17:19,910 --> 00:17:21,989 S1: She didn't think more than one step ahead. I mean, 350 00:17:22,030 --> 00:17:23,990 S1: this is this is what sort of, you know. And 351 00:17:23,990 --> 00:17:27,429 S1: Anthony Albanese, by contrast, for all of his flaws, does 352 00:17:27,470 --> 00:17:30,870 S1: he you know, he's he's a political strategist with many 353 00:17:30,869 --> 00:17:32,989 S1: runs on the board. But yeah, she didn't think more 354 00:17:32,990 --> 00:17:33,870 S1: than one step ahead. 355 00:17:34,350 --> 00:17:37,639 S2: Totally. Right. And as Sean Carney, um, who I referenced earlier. 356 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,280 S2: I'm just repeating Sean Carney's column. 357 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,280 S1: It was a great column. Everyone should go read it. 358 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,200 S2: Everyone should always read Sean Carney. As he said, uh, 359 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,920 S2: the idea that you would call for Parliament to return 360 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,560 S2: in order to undercut the Prime Minister is the wrong 361 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,639 S2: way to view this Prime Minister, because there is nowhere 362 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:55,880 S2: where he is more adept than in the Parliament, and 363 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,440 S2: using the Parliament to wedge his opponents and create conflicts 364 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,320 S2: on their own side, which he did despite a really 365 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,879 S2: difficult summer for him, where he was exposed on more 366 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:09,080 S2: substantive qualities of leadership and potentially moral clarity, which is 367 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,640 S2: an overused term, but I'll use the cliche anyway. But 368 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,119 S2: just in the last couple of weeks on the Liberal 369 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,560 S2: leadership spill, it's been really interesting to see how it 370 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,960 S2: played out. So in the days after Littleproud left the coalition, 371 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,360 S2: it was clearly a moment of generational crisis, like there 372 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,000 S2: are a few moments on the conservative side of politics 373 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,399 S2: that looked so stark when it occurred, because the split 374 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,000 S2: that occurred after the last election was brief, there was 375 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,000 S2: always going to be patched up quickly, and there was 376 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,180 S2: a sense that Susan Lee could kind of this new 377 00:18:38,180 --> 00:18:40,860 S2: centrist leader woman in the role. There was a sense 378 00:18:40,859 --> 00:18:44,180 S2: of positivity around the place where now, nearly a year 379 00:18:44,180 --> 00:18:47,180 S2: into her leadership, when David Littleproud split out last week, 380 00:18:47,220 --> 00:18:49,260 S2: it looked like the split would be more permanent and 381 00:18:49,260 --> 00:18:51,660 S2: there were serious questions about whether the coalition was dead. 382 00:18:51,780 --> 00:18:55,500 S2: So at that moment, the group of supporters around Andrew Hastie, 383 00:18:55,700 --> 00:18:58,020 S2: who are very bolshie, they want to see Andrew Hastie 384 00:18:58,020 --> 00:19:00,540 S2: in the job quickly. And Andrew Hastie is telling people 385 00:19:00,540 --> 00:19:02,460 S2: that he wants the job quickly. He's ready to do it, 386 00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:05,820 S2: even though he's only 42 or 43. They are very 387 00:19:05,820 --> 00:19:10,379 S2: quickly started making calls to colleagues saying that Hastie was ready, 388 00:19:10,420 --> 00:19:12,180 S2: saying that his wife was ready for him to do 389 00:19:12,180 --> 00:19:15,460 S2: the job and trying to create momentum for a spill. 390 00:19:15,700 --> 00:19:19,300 S2: This got reported by us and all the other political reporters, 391 00:19:19,500 --> 00:19:23,340 S2: but over days it became clear that the momentum was 392 00:19:23,340 --> 00:19:26,300 S2: not quite as strong as we initially thought. A lot 393 00:19:26,300 --> 00:19:28,540 S2: of MPs were saying, we haven't even received a call. 394 00:19:28,820 --> 00:19:31,540 S2: Andrew Hastie's people were dampening the idea that there would 395 00:19:31,540 --> 00:19:34,260 S2: be a quick leadership spill, and there was a really 396 00:19:34,260 --> 00:19:37,310 S2: strong pushback from some moderates and from people around Sussan 397 00:19:37,310 --> 00:19:39,990 S2: Ley who really started to, you know, take the piss 398 00:19:39,990 --> 00:19:41,950 S2: out of the Hastie camp to say you guys have 399 00:19:41,950 --> 00:19:44,389 S2: never done a leadership spill before. You're all first or 400 00:19:44,390 --> 00:19:47,510 S2: second term backbenchers. You clearly don't know how to do this. 401 00:19:47,510 --> 00:19:48,670 S2: Get back in your box. 402 00:19:48,790 --> 00:19:50,630 S1: It just from the outside. It just looks like they 403 00:19:50,630 --> 00:19:51,950 S1: couldn't run a chook raffle there. 404 00:19:51,990 --> 00:19:54,190 S2: There is that sense that I can I can understand 405 00:19:54,190 --> 00:19:57,149 S2: it all the while. Angus Taylor is in Europe with 406 00:19:57,150 --> 00:19:59,390 S2: his wife. They're trying to have their first holiday as 407 00:19:59,390 --> 00:20:02,109 S2: a couple. For many years he was away for the 408 00:20:02,109 --> 00:20:04,350 S2: parliamentary sitting week where this all occurred, even though he 409 00:20:04,350 --> 00:20:07,470 S2: was zooming in to leadership meetings and staying up all night, 410 00:20:07,710 --> 00:20:09,869 S2: and he was not able to do the same level 411 00:20:09,869 --> 00:20:12,550 S2: of rallying that Andrew Hastie was doing because Hastie was 412 00:20:12,550 --> 00:20:15,350 S2: in the country. So Taylor gets back into the country, 413 00:20:15,390 --> 00:20:18,510 S2: he's on the back foot. He starts calling around over 414 00:20:18,510 --> 00:20:21,470 S2: that last weekend and realises that quite a few people 415 00:20:21,470 --> 00:20:23,550 S2: who might have been seen as on the fence, in 416 00:20:23,590 --> 00:20:26,430 S2: the right faction, on who to back, were on, leaning 417 00:20:26,470 --> 00:20:29,910 S2: towards Hastie. So then the Taylor people enter the debate, 418 00:20:29,950 --> 00:20:32,109 S2: try and calm the horses and say, you know, now's 419 00:20:32,109 --> 00:20:34,929 S2: not quite the right time. Give this a few weeks. 420 00:20:34,930 --> 00:20:36,689 S2: We need to come together with hasty and have a 421 00:20:36,690 --> 00:20:39,250 S2: meeting to determine which one of us it's going to be. 422 00:20:39,290 --> 00:20:41,810 S2: And so now we're in this kind of holding pattern 423 00:20:42,130 --> 00:20:44,850 S2: to see where the right goes. This meeting today in 424 00:20:44,850 --> 00:20:47,410 S2: Melbourne might be crucial. I suspect it actually won't come 425 00:20:47,410 --> 00:20:50,650 S2: up with a resolution. Susan Lee's people are feeling pretty 426 00:20:50,690 --> 00:20:53,850 S2: bolshie because the other side looks shambolic. But even though 427 00:20:53,850 --> 00:20:57,250 S2: Susan Lee's people have been projecting this confidence and making 428 00:20:57,250 --> 00:21:00,930 S2: fun of their, you know, allegedly rabble rousing opponents, there's 429 00:21:00,930 --> 00:21:03,410 S2: been this string of polls now which show that One 430 00:21:03,410 --> 00:21:07,610 S2: Nation is hovering somewhere between, you know, 16, 17% minimum 431 00:21:07,609 --> 00:21:11,330 S2: on primary and up to 25% and the Liberal Party 432 00:21:11,330 --> 00:21:13,410 S2: in some of these polls are in the high teens, 433 00:21:13,609 --> 00:21:17,930 S2: mid 20s or low 20s. And those polls are just 434 00:21:17,930 --> 00:21:23,410 S2: freaking out. Liberal MPs, because those aren't like bad polls. 435 00:21:23,570 --> 00:21:27,690 S2: They're like tectonic shifts in conservative voting patterns that could 436 00:21:27,810 --> 00:21:30,649 S2: just cut the knees off the Liberal Party. So there's 437 00:21:30,690 --> 00:21:34,350 S2: a sense that not only is Susan Lee's leadership, you know, 438 00:21:34,390 --> 00:21:36,230 S2: it might be buffeted by the fact that there is 439 00:21:36,230 --> 00:21:39,870 S2: chaos on the right flank of the coalition, but the 440 00:21:39,869 --> 00:21:42,790 S2: situation is so dire that MPs are now starting to 441 00:21:42,830 --> 00:21:45,629 S2: speak in existential terms, and I suspect that will lead 442 00:21:45,630 --> 00:21:48,590 S2: to a removal. It might not be swift because the 443 00:21:48,590 --> 00:21:52,670 S2: riots disorganized, but it will probably occur over the next 444 00:21:52,670 --> 00:21:53,070 S2: few months. 445 00:21:53,109 --> 00:21:53,469 S1: Yeah. 446 00:21:53,510 --> 00:21:55,030 S2: If not, if not in two weeks time at the 447 00:21:55,030 --> 00:21:56,390 S2: end of the parliamentary sitting week. 448 00:21:56,430 --> 00:21:57,990 S1: I mean, this is maybe a bit of a byway. 449 00:21:57,990 --> 00:22:00,629 S1: And I know you and Tas did a podcast a 450 00:22:00,630 --> 00:22:02,910 S1: couple of weeks ago about the One Nation sort of threat, 451 00:22:02,950 --> 00:22:06,229 S1: as it might be dubbed. And I think, again, we 452 00:22:06,270 --> 00:22:07,790 S1: keep coming back to Sean Carney. I think he made 453 00:22:07,790 --> 00:22:10,310 S1: this point as well, that the shift to One Nation 454 00:22:10,310 --> 00:22:14,190 S1: could be on ideological grounds, you know, on political grounds, 455 00:22:14,190 --> 00:22:16,590 S1: but it could be also people who can't bring themselves 456 00:22:16,590 --> 00:22:20,030 S1: or would never vote for, for a progressive party, but 457 00:22:20,030 --> 00:22:23,790 S1: just cannot stand the chaos, or a completely disgusted and 458 00:22:23,790 --> 00:22:27,189 S1: disillusioned by the chaos within the coalition. So One Nation, 459 00:22:27,190 --> 00:22:30,510 S1: by contrast, looks pretty unified and together at least, which 460 00:22:30,550 --> 00:22:34,000 S1: is not something I thought I'd ever say. Um, and 461 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:35,840 S1: it is a tectonic shift. I mean, I don't think 462 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:37,960 S1: we can sort of discount the possibility that we're never 463 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:39,760 S1: going to go back to what we've always thought is 464 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,000 S1: politics as usual in this country, which is a two 465 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,520 S1: party system where both the major players basically swap government 466 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,240 S1: in and out, depending on how badly or how incompetent 467 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:51,680 S1: one or the other is in government. It's a split 468 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,639 S1: in the vote on the right. And, you know, in 469 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,919 S1: many other countries, particularly European countries, it's quite normal for 470 00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:01,560 S1: coalitions to form government and coalitions in the small see sense. And, 471 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,280 S1: you know, maybe that's what we're looking at. If they 472 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,159 S1: could ever agree on terms or ever get round to 473 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:08,879 S1: thinking about policy. Paul, where does this leave the government? Because, 474 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,240 S1: you know, it is quite extraordinary that, you know, the 475 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:16,040 S1: the amount of blame, you know, condemnation, criticism that Albanese 476 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,320 S1: got in particular, and now he's managed to pull off 477 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,440 S1: this kind of legislation quite quickly. He looks very much 478 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,800 S1: like he's done it on his own terms. Yes. He 479 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,639 S1: had to back down over the royal commission, but I 480 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,480 S1: don't know if he's going to pay a huge political 481 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,820 S1: price for that in the long term. And what are 482 00:23:30,820 --> 00:23:33,100 S1: they going to be getting on with now? Because, you know, 483 00:23:33,180 --> 00:23:35,740 S1: I mean, Albanese's been in East Timor this week. He'll 484 00:23:35,740 --> 00:23:37,940 S1: come back to Parliament next week. Will they actually have 485 00:23:37,940 --> 00:23:40,739 S1: any sort of policy for us? Will they be, you know, 486 00:23:40,780 --> 00:23:42,740 S1: what will they be doing in terms of their agenda 487 00:23:42,740 --> 00:23:43,300 S1: this year? 488 00:23:43,900 --> 00:23:46,939 S2: Well, the Prime Minister has a National Press Club speech 489 00:23:46,940 --> 00:23:49,820 S2: next week. It was going to be, I think, in 490 00:23:49,859 --> 00:23:52,180 S2: this week, the Australia Day week or perhaps just before, 491 00:23:52,220 --> 00:23:54,219 S2: I can't quite remember, but it got delayed because of 492 00:23:54,260 --> 00:23:57,740 S2: the Bondi legislative response. That's a set piece speech that 493 00:23:57,900 --> 00:24:01,180 S2: the Prime Minister gives every year outlining his agenda, and 494 00:24:01,180 --> 00:24:03,700 S2: this year, I suspect, will be more important than most 495 00:24:03,700 --> 00:24:07,860 S2: because after the May election last year, 2025 was seen 496 00:24:07,859 --> 00:24:10,659 S2: as a year of delivery for Albanese. He would tell 497 00:24:10,700 --> 00:24:13,219 S2: anyone who would listen that we're not going to embark 498 00:24:13,220 --> 00:24:15,820 S2: on some new radical agenda in the first year after 499 00:24:15,820 --> 00:24:18,540 S2: being re-elected with a thumping majority. We'll do what we've 500 00:24:18,540 --> 00:24:21,260 S2: said and the future. We'll see what the future holds 501 00:24:21,260 --> 00:24:24,500 S2: in terms of where our horizons can be expanded to. 502 00:24:24,859 --> 00:24:27,580 S2: We still don't really have a clear sense of what 503 00:24:27,740 --> 00:24:30,750 S2: the second year agenda might look like. And this is 504 00:24:30,790 --> 00:24:33,709 S2: a critical year in the sense that the government's got 505 00:24:33,710 --> 00:24:37,149 S2: a big majority. The opposition's in crisis. We know there's 506 00:24:37,150 --> 00:24:39,350 S2: no election this year, so it's a full year of 507 00:24:39,350 --> 00:24:42,430 S2: being able to govern without thinking about a campaign. And 508 00:24:42,430 --> 00:24:45,350 S2: the government's got a lot of political capital in the 509 00:24:45,350 --> 00:24:47,710 S2: sense of a huge majority in the parliament. But as 510 00:24:47,710 --> 00:24:50,950 S2: Bondi showed, he's not a Bob Hawke level figure in 511 00:24:50,950 --> 00:24:53,870 S2: terms of his political ascendancy. He can go through a 512 00:24:53,869 --> 00:24:58,950 S2: crisis that quickly diminishes his personal numbers, his popularity ratings. 513 00:24:58,950 --> 00:25:01,910 S2: The prime minister dipped over January to the same level 514 00:25:01,910 --> 00:25:05,510 S2: as they were in February January of the election year, 515 00:25:05,510 --> 00:25:07,350 S2: when he was at a point where many people were 516 00:25:07,350 --> 00:25:11,629 S2: predicting a Dutton government, obviously very wrongly predicting that. But 517 00:25:11,630 --> 00:25:13,950 S2: that's what polls were showing. So there is a sense 518 00:25:13,950 --> 00:25:17,270 S2: that the government needs to get back, swing back into 519 00:25:17,270 --> 00:25:21,030 S2: gear itself with a new agenda. The budget will be 520 00:25:21,030 --> 00:25:24,750 S2: an important budget in May. Inflation pressure is back, so 521 00:25:24,750 --> 00:25:27,070 S2: they'll probably need to be something on the spending front 522 00:25:27,410 --> 00:25:29,210 S2: to see if the government can pare back, which they 523 00:25:29,210 --> 00:25:31,610 S2: haven't shown much appetite to do to date. And then 524 00:25:31,609 --> 00:25:33,450 S2: there's also this big question on what the government does 525 00:25:33,450 --> 00:25:36,690 S2: on economic reform. Do they tackle the tax question? How 526 00:25:36,690 --> 00:25:39,610 S2: ambitious does Chalmers want to be? The government's next year 527 00:25:39,609 --> 00:25:42,609 S2: is really open and hard to predict as to where 528 00:25:42,609 --> 00:25:44,050 S2: it will go, so it'll be fascinating. 529 00:25:44,090 --> 00:25:45,370 S1: I mean, I think it's going to be all about 530 00:25:45,369 --> 00:25:47,530 S1: the economy because, as you say, there's a budget where 531 00:25:47,570 --> 00:25:49,770 S1: sort of we go into budget kind of preparation mode 532 00:25:49,770 --> 00:25:52,609 S1: almost from now, and they're going to have to trim spending. 533 00:25:52,650 --> 00:25:54,170 S1: It seems to me like they just have to, one 534 00:25:54,170 --> 00:25:56,169 S1: way or the other, depending on, you know, particularly what 535 00:25:56,170 --> 00:25:57,729 S1: the RBA says next week when they say. 536 00:25:57,770 --> 00:25:59,369 S2: They're not very good at it, trimming, spending. 537 00:25:59,410 --> 00:26:01,490 S1: No. And they've got so much locked in. I mean, 538 00:26:01,530 --> 00:26:04,129 S1: and you know, well you know, there's I mean health 539 00:26:04,170 --> 00:26:06,169 S1: health costs are blowing out. You know, they're about to 540 00:26:06,170 --> 00:26:09,050 S1: do this deal on the hospitals. Childcare costs are enormous. Still, 541 00:26:09,290 --> 00:26:12,449 S1: there are huge sort of headline items in the budget 542 00:26:12,450 --> 00:26:15,330 S1: there that I think they'll, they'll struggle to, to rein in. Paul, 543 00:26:15,330 --> 00:26:17,130 S1: thanks very much. It's good to be back to be 544 00:26:17,130 --> 00:26:19,050 S1: reunited for this. What is going to be a very 545 00:26:19,050 --> 00:26:21,449 S1: exciting year in politics, I think. And I will see 546 00:26:21,450 --> 00:26:22,090 S1: you next week. 547 00:26:22,450 --> 00:26:23,770 S2: Awesome to have you back. Thanks, Jack. 548 00:26:29,380 --> 00:26:31,540 S1: You can read all of our political news on our 549 00:26:31,540 --> 00:26:38,220 S1: websites theage.com.au or smh.com.au. And while you're there, consider subscribing 550 00:26:38,260 --> 00:26:41,060 S1: to the Sydney Morning Herald or The Age today and 551 00:26:41,060 --> 00:26:43,620 S1: save 50% for the first six months on our premium 552 00:26:43,619 --> 00:26:47,540 S1: digital and essential weekend packages. You'll unlock all of our 553 00:26:47,540 --> 00:26:51,659 S1: award winning journalism, plus subscriber favourites like puzzles, Good Food 554 00:26:51,660 --> 00:26:54,780 S1: and traveller. Head to our website to find out more. 555 00:26:54,820 --> 00:27:00,820 S1: Terms and conditions apply. Today's episode was produced by Kai 556 00:27:00,859 --> 00:27:04,780 S1: Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is 557 00:27:04,780 --> 00:27:07,859 S1: Tammy Mills and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy 558 00:27:07,859 --> 00:27:12,220 S1: and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, please follow Inside Politics 559 00:27:12,220 --> 00:27:15,700 S1: and leave us a review on Apple or Spotify. I'm 560 00:27:15,700 --> 00:27:17,340 S1: Jacqueline Maley. Thank you for listening.