1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:04,280 S1: Donald Trump declared war on Iran in a move that 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:08,360 S1: seemed inevitable but was nevertheless shocking when the moment came. 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:12,440 S1: Joint American and Israeli strikes rained down on the country 4 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:16,240 S1: beginning on Saturday, with reports of the deaths of civilians 5 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:21,520 S1: and also the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 6 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:25,360 S1: And now, says Trump, it's time for the Iranian people 7 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:30,240 S1: to rise up and overthrow their country's government. I'm Samantha 8 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,520 S1: Cylinder Morris, and you're listening to Morning Edition from The 9 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,680 S1: Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today, international and political 10 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,280 S1: editor Peter Hartcher on who is likely to rule Iran 11 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:45,120 S1: now and if this will likely lead to a wider war. 12 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:50,760 S2: So, Peter, we're recording. 13 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,720 S1: This on Sunday afternoon. Can you briefly just take us 14 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,840 S1: through this attack? You know, how fulsome has it been? 15 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,280 S1: How much damage has Iran sustained? 16 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:03,110 S3: Well, while the US was still at the negotiating table. 17 00:01:03,350 --> 00:01:08,750 S3: And according to the Omani interlocutors who were brokering the agreements, 18 00:01:09,190 --> 00:01:13,910 S3: there was something pretty close to a deal with the Iranians. 19 00:01:13,910 --> 00:01:19,670 S3: And with those negotiations still underway without warning, Israel began 20 00:01:19,670 --> 00:01:25,350 S3: a series of strikes against Iran that have successfully decapitated 21 00:01:25,350 --> 00:01:31,150 S3: the Iranian government, not only killing the Ayatollah Khamenei, the 22 00:01:31,150 --> 00:01:34,470 S3: supreme leader, but also at least seven of his top 23 00:01:34,470 --> 00:01:36,510 S3: security and military officials. 24 00:01:38,190 --> 00:01:42,789 S4: Tonight, Donald Trump says Iran's supreme leader is dead. As 25 00:01:42,830 --> 00:01:45,869 S4: fears grow for all out war in the Middle East. 26 00:01:46,069 --> 00:01:50,830 S5: Satellite imagery shows damage at the supreme leader's compound in Tehran. Elsewhere, 27 00:01:50,830 --> 00:01:54,030 S5: authorities say more than 200 people have been killed in 28 00:01:54,030 --> 00:01:57,110 S5: the attacks, including dozens at a girls school in the 29 00:01:57,110 --> 00:01:57,950 S5: country's south. 30 00:01:59,530 --> 00:02:01,970 S3: So it seems to have been, as we have come 31 00:02:01,970 --> 00:02:06,850 S3: to expect from the Israelis, exceptional intelligence that led them 32 00:02:06,850 --> 00:02:10,250 S3: to the ability to do this. They obviously saw the 33 00:02:10,250 --> 00:02:16,570 S3: opportunity and struck. The US followed the Israeli lead by 34 00:02:16,610 --> 00:02:21,050 S3: launching a series of attacks on, well between the two countries. 35 00:02:21,050 --> 00:02:24,889 S3: Between Israel and the US, at least 20 Iranian cities 36 00:02:25,010 --> 00:02:30,770 S3: have been struck with missiles and drones. The Israelis concentrated 37 00:02:30,770 --> 00:02:36,290 S3: on political targets, and the US appears to be concentrating 38 00:02:37,290 --> 00:02:42,690 S3: on military and particularly military defenses like air defense systems 39 00:02:43,290 --> 00:02:48,410 S3: and military installations. The assault is continuing. Donald Trump has said. 40 00:02:48,690 --> 00:02:51,170 S3: He said in one interview with an American media outlet 41 00:02:51,650 --> 00:02:55,330 S3: in the middle of these strikes that he could, quote, 42 00:02:55,330 --> 00:02:59,519 S3: go long and take over the whole thing without specifying 43 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:01,760 S3: exactly how long long would be or what the whole 44 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,280 S3: thing would be. Or, he continued, uh, we might wind 45 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:06,560 S3: up in just a few days. 46 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,920 S6: For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted Death to 47 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:16,840 S6: America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, 48 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,000 S6: targeting the United States, our troops and the innocent people 49 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:22,760 S6: in many, many countries. 50 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:27,960 S3: So either Donald Trump doesn't know what his plan is, 51 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,720 S3: or he's waiting for the Israelis to tell him what 52 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:34,280 S3: his plan is, or he's a master of misinformation to 53 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,920 S3: keep the enemy guessing. Uh, you take your pick. But 54 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:42,480 S3: it does seem that, uh, the two, uh, aggressors here, 55 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,520 S3: Israel and the US, are settling in for a much 56 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,800 S3: broader campaign of destruction in Iran. 57 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,320 S1: And you mentioned just there that it appears that Iranian 58 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,100 S1: leadership has been decapitated. We know Donald Trump has announced 59 00:03:59,100 --> 00:04:02,660 S1: on social media that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has 60 00:04:02,660 --> 00:04:06,100 S1: been killed, and Israel has reported that several top Iranian 61 00:04:06,100 --> 00:04:08,780 S1: officials have also been killed in the strikes. Do we 62 00:04:08,780 --> 00:04:11,620 S1: have any idea who would likely take his place? I mean, 63 00:04:11,660 --> 00:04:15,220 S1: is this really the Iranian leadership gone? 64 00:04:15,540 --> 00:04:17,820 S3: We do have an indication of who would replace him. 65 00:04:18,180 --> 00:04:21,540 S3: You struck upon the I don't know, is it $64 66 00:04:21,540 --> 00:04:25,700 S3: billion question or $6 trillion question, which is whether this, uh, 67 00:04:25,900 --> 00:04:31,980 S3: remains a a limited series of aggressions against the Iranian 68 00:04:31,980 --> 00:04:35,620 S3: regime or whether it eventually amounts to the removal of 69 00:04:35,620 --> 00:04:40,340 S3: the ayatollahs and the Islamic Republic that has controlled the 70 00:04:40,339 --> 00:04:47,460 S3: country in a vice like dictatorship since 1978. So the 71 00:04:47,500 --> 00:04:52,820 S3: Ayatollah Khomeini anticipated this, that he might be assassinated after 72 00:04:52,820 --> 00:04:56,460 S3: the June attacks last year by the US and Israel. 73 00:04:57,140 --> 00:05:04,089 S3: Khamenei reportedly nominated his own successor. He nominated Ari Ari. 74 00:05:04,089 --> 00:05:08,289 S3: Larijani has a long history as an official of the regime. 75 00:05:08,730 --> 00:05:14,890 S3: His most recent notable performance was apparently masterminding the security 76 00:05:14,890 --> 00:05:22,850 S3: crackdown that murdered an estimated 30,000 Iranian civilians, peaceful protesters 77 00:05:22,890 --> 00:05:26,210 S3: against the regime just last month. You know, we shouldn't 78 00:05:26,210 --> 00:05:29,409 S3: expect first if that reporting is correct and that, Ari, 79 00:05:29,810 --> 00:05:33,570 S3: Ari is the nominated successor and secondly, that that succession 80 00:05:33,570 --> 00:05:36,130 S3: is carried out. We shouldn't expect that he would be 81 00:05:36,130 --> 00:05:42,930 S3: any softer, more lenient, more reasonable, more democratic or amenable 82 00:05:42,930 --> 00:05:46,849 S3: leader than than either of the two supreme leaders so 83 00:05:46,850 --> 00:05:52,210 S3: far who've led this republic. Now, the Ayatollah was far 84 00:05:52,210 --> 00:05:56,450 S3: sighted enough to nominate not only his own successor, but 85 00:05:56,490 --> 00:06:00,240 S3: it's reported that he told all of his subordinates to 86 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,359 S3: nominate multiple successors to all of their positions as well. 87 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:08,480 S3: So he was anticipating exactly what's happened and attempted decapitation 88 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:12,760 S3: of not just the supreme leader position, but the entirety 89 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:19,200 S3: of the Iranian regime, military and security leadership. If those 90 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:24,440 S3: nominations if that attempt at a preordained, uh, you know, 91 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:29,320 S3: post-mortem succession are carried out as he intended, then we 92 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,840 S3: we can expect to see a reasonably quick and simple, uh, 93 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,800 S3: transfer of power. It won't be. I don't think, if 94 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:39,919 S3: the regime survives, I don't think it will be a 95 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,960 S3: permanent arrangement. Uh, because there are formalities to go through 96 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,640 S3: with the in the Iranian succession and political structure. But 97 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:52,080 S3: it does look like as an interim process, this was anticipated. 98 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,440 S3: And there is now a plan in, in, you know, 99 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:56,200 S3: in the top drawer, if you like, that that'll be 100 00:06:56,300 --> 00:06:59,580 S3: pulled out and implemented to replace those those leaders who've 101 00:06:59,580 --> 00:07:00,620 S3: just been assassinated. 102 00:07:01,180 --> 00:07:03,500 S1: Okay. I want to get back to the regime. And 103 00:07:03,500 --> 00:07:05,300 S1: if it survives in just a little bit. But first 104 00:07:05,300 --> 00:07:06,940 S1: of all, can you just sort of, I guess, let 105 00:07:06,940 --> 00:07:09,820 S1: us know what sort of retaliation have we seen from 106 00:07:09,820 --> 00:07:13,060 S1: Iran or its proxies? You know what? And who have 107 00:07:13,060 --> 00:07:13,780 S1: they hit? 108 00:07:14,100 --> 00:07:17,540 S3: Well, as of now, um, which is still pretty early 109 00:07:17,540 --> 00:07:23,100 S3: on in this war, the initial Iranian response was to 110 00:07:23,140 --> 00:07:28,500 S3: try to hit some American assets nearby and to hit Israel, 111 00:07:28,540 --> 00:07:32,780 S3: of course, with missiles and drones. And you would expect 112 00:07:32,780 --> 00:07:35,700 S3: that they had signaled that they would do that. Um, 113 00:07:35,700 --> 00:07:38,820 S3: and some of that appears to have been successful. There's 114 00:07:38,820 --> 00:07:43,620 S3: been some reports of missiles landing and killing people in Israel. 115 00:07:44,340 --> 00:07:49,260 S3: Some of its missiles were aimed at US facilities. But 116 00:07:49,740 --> 00:07:56,650 S3: the more remarkable and less predictable action of the. The 117 00:07:56,690 --> 00:08:02,130 S3: Ayatollah Khomeini's last hours in instructing this retaliatory burst is 118 00:08:02,130 --> 00:08:07,370 S3: that they have sprayed missiles and drones, not just at 119 00:08:07,410 --> 00:08:13,050 S3: Israel and US assets, but they've also attacked a range 120 00:08:13,050 --> 00:08:18,370 S3: of the Arab states that surround Iran. Iran, of course, uh, 121 00:08:18,930 --> 00:08:23,610 S3: being a Shia state which has got deep differences with 122 00:08:23,610 --> 00:08:29,530 S3: the Sunni Arab states that surround it and, um, those, 123 00:08:29,690 --> 00:08:35,730 S3: those many of those missiles have struck residential, uh, architecture, 124 00:08:35,730 --> 00:08:40,130 S3: residential buildings and compounds. So they seem to be it 125 00:08:40,130 --> 00:08:44,250 S3: seems to have been either a blind, partly blind, or 126 00:08:44,250 --> 00:08:50,210 S3: just ineffective and unprofessional lashing out at the the country's 127 00:08:50,250 --> 00:08:53,290 S3: nearest neighbors, its Arab neighbors, as well as Israel and 128 00:08:53,290 --> 00:09:00,950 S3: as well as US assets. This won't succeed in taming 129 00:09:00,950 --> 00:09:06,309 S3: any of Iran's enemies. All it's done is antagonize those 130 00:09:06,350 --> 00:09:10,310 S3: Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which said it had successfully 131 00:09:10,309 --> 00:09:14,710 S3: intercepted the Iranian missiles, including the United Arab Emirates and 132 00:09:14,710 --> 00:09:18,350 S3: Bahrain and the and the others as well. It's only 133 00:09:18,350 --> 00:09:22,350 S3: antagonized them. They've all come out in strong protest against 134 00:09:22,390 --> 00:09:26,310 S3: the Iranian attacks. The Iranians said, well, no, we were 135 00:09:26,309 --> 00:09:29,390 S3: really just aiming for the American assets and the Israelis. 136 00:09:29,910 --> 00:09:33,870 S3: But the Gulf state leaders are not buying that. And 137 00:09:34,230 --> 00:09:38,590 S3: all they've done is apparently antagonize countries which were inclined 138 00:09:38,590 --> 00:09:40,950 S3: to stay out of the fight. So it seems to 139 00:09:40,990 --> 00:09:46,190 S3: have been a lot of aggression from Tehran without a 140 00:09:46,190 --> 00:09:52,710 S3: lot of strategic thought and calculation in the possible consequences. 141 00:09:53,510 --> 00:09:54,430 S2: Which really brings me to. 142 00:09:54,580 --> 00:09:56,540 S1: My next question, Peter, because I think a lot of 143 00:09:56,540 --> 00:09:59,500 S1: listeners who have been seeing, you know, the footage from, 144 00:10:00,179 --> 00:10:02,060 S1: I mean, I'm tempted to call it a war. I 145 00:10:02,059 --> 00:10:04,420 S1: think that's what it is. Footage of buildings being hit 146 00:10:04,420 --> 00:10:07,180 S1: in Tehran, strikes in Tel Aviv. They might be thinking, wait, 147 00:10:07,179 --> 00:10:10,940 S1: could this actually lead to World War three? Because, as 148 00:10:10,940 --> 00:10:13,459 S1: you've said, this is a joint attack on Iran by 149 00:10:13,460 --> 00:10:16,940 S1: us and Israel. And we know that. On Saturday, Australian time, 150 00:10:16,940 --> 00:10:20,660 S1: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that British planes are 151 00:10:20,660 --> 00:10:23,059 S1: in the sky today in the Middle East as part 152 00:10:23,059 --> 00:10:26,260 S1: of defensive operations in the region. So is this the 153 00:10:26,260 --> 00:10:29,660 S1: start of a conflict that could actually draw in many 154 00:10:29,660 --> 00:10:33,100 S1: more countries and result in a broader, all out war? 155 00:10:33,620 --> 00:10:37,380 S3: I don't think so. It could well induce some of 156 00:10:37,380 --> 00:10:40,540 S3: those Gulf Arab states that I've just mentioned into taking 157 00:10:40,540 --> 00:10:45,020 S3: action against Iran, but only against Iran. They're not planning 158 00:10:45,020 --> 00:10:47,380 S3: to hit anybody else. The only their only enemy here 159 00:10:47,380 --> 00:10:51,220 S3: is Iran. Um, the involvement of other powers. You mentioned 160 00:10:51,220 --> 00:10:56,240 S3: the Brits. Well, this is a replay of multiple US 161 00:10:56,280 --> 00:11:00,800 S3: led strikes against Iran, where the Brits and other American 162 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:05,520 S3: allies have joined. Uh, so, you know, just last year 163 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:10,720 S3: in the June, uh, American led attacks on Iran, where 164 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:14,760 S3: Israel and then the US attacked, the Brits, joined in 165 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:20,000 S3: the French, participated in defensive operations to help with interceptions. 166 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:24,040 S3: The Saudis assisted, uh, making their airspace available to the 167 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:29,040 S3: US to attempt to to manage with, um, both defensive 168 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:33,320 S3: and aggressive maneuvers. There were a bunch of countries involved, 169 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:38,560 S3: and I don't see in this case any any other powers, 170 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:43,160 S3: external powers, great powers coming into this fight. Uh, the 171 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,760 S3: Chinese and the Russians have both at the Security Council 172 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:52,640 S3: protested against the attacks, but that's I mean, that's standard maneuver. 173 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:57,550 S3: Diplomatic maneuver because Iran has been an ally of both 174 00:11:57,790 --> 00:12:01,750 S3: China and Russia, but they are not going to enter 175 00:12:01,750 --> 00:12:04,710 S3: the fight. Uh, they've they've got their own agendas. They're 176 00:12:04,710 --> 00:12:08,110 S3: not interested in trying to protect Iran. We saw last 177 00:12:08,110 --> 00:12:11,950 S3: year the same thing happened, although Russia, Russia, you know, 178 00:12:11,990 --> 00:12:16,670 S3: likes to talk tough. It took no action to defend Tehran. 179 00:12:16,670 --> 00:12:20,189 S3: In fact, Russia is hard pressed to survive its own war. 180 00:12:20,309 --> 00:12:25,310 S3: It's under such stress with Ukraine. And the Chinese are just, um, 181 00:12:25,350 --> 00:12:28,709 S3: not interested in getting drawn into Middle Eastern war. They've 182 00:12:28,710 --> 00:12:34,710 S3: got their own much larger, longer and more calculated plans 183 00:12:34,710 --> 00:12:37,670 S3: for dominance, uh, that they're working to they're not interested 184 00:12:37,670 --> 00:12:41,830 S3: in protecting or trying to salvage this regime, quite apart 185 00:12:41,830 --> 00:12:45,350 S3: from the fact that the regime itself may be. We 186 00:12:45,350 --> 00:12:47,550 S3: have no idea yet. It's way too early to say, 187 00:12:47,870 --> 00:12:50,950 S3: but the regime itself might not be salvageable. So what 188 00:12:50,950 --> 00:12:51,870 S3: would be the point? 189 00:12:52,700 --> 00:12:53,940 S2: And so let's talk. 190 00:12:53,940 --> 00:12:57,020 S1: About the United States, Peter, because we know that, you know, 191 00:12:57,059 --> 00:13:00,900 S1: Donald Trump has announced just on Sunday morning, Australian time, 192 00:13:00,900 --> 00:13:03,300 S1: he announced on social media that, you know, American strikes 193 00:13:03,300 --> 00:13:05,819 S1: are going to continue as long as necessary to achieve 194 00:13:05,860 --> 00:13:09,180 S1: our objective of, of course, in all caps here, peace 195 00:13:09,179 --> 00:13:13,540 S1: throughout the Middle East and indeed the world. So maybe 196 00:13:13,540 --> 00:13:15,740 S1: you can help us take a step back to give 197 00:13:15,740 --> 00:13:19,420 S1: us some historical context. You know how how unusual or 198 00:13:19,420 --> 00:13:22,420 S1: unusual is it that the United States preemptively hits another 199 00:13:22,420 --> 00:13:25,580 S1: country to try and bring about regime change and bring 200 00:13:25,580 --> 00:13:27,220 S1: about a better world peace? 201 00:13:28,100 --> 00:13:33,300 S3: Well, the US has comparative advantage in destruction, but it 202 00:13:33,300 --> 00:13:38,780 S3: has a dire record of construction in recent decades. They 203 00:13:38,820 --> 00:13:42,940 S3: are the specialists in demolition, and nobody questions their ability 204 00:13:42,940 --> 00:13:48,819 S3: to to to drop massive ordnance and wreak mass destruction. 205 00:13:49,179 --> 00:13:52,720 S3: They've done it again and again. It's. It's always the 206 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:57,199 S3: next step. That is their weak suit. They've never figured out, uh, 207 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:02,760 S3: even when the military operation has succeeded, how to shape 208 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:06,600 S3: the outcomes and the lasting shape of that country. It's 209 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:11,640 S3: been an unmitigated string of disasters. The most recent one, 210 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:15,199 S3: I suppose, was the capture of Maduro from Venezuela. And 211 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:19,040 S3: it's too early to judge the ultimate outcome. But we 212 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:23,080 S3: do know that Maduro's regime remains in power. His deputy 213 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,840 S3: simply stepped up and replaced him. So while he's in 214 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:29,239 S3: a New York courtroom, his deputy is now the president 215 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:33,880 S3: of Venezuela. And the outcome, the long run outcome there, 216 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:36,600 S3: we we we simply don't know. To some sort of 217 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:40,960 S3: transitional phase. But the the behavior of the regime, uh, 218 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:46,360 S3: it's a it's a pretty shocking, uh, dictatorship, uh, towards 219 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:50,920 S3: its people hasn't changed. It's a new leader. The interim 220 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:54,270 S3: leader will presumably be is being more conciliatory to the US. 221 00:14:54,270 --> 00:14:57,190 S3: But that's about it so far. And then, of course, 222 00:14:57,190 --> 00:15:00,430 S3: you go whether you go to the I mean, the 223 00:15:00,430 --> 00:15:04,590 S3: US spent nearly two decades in in Afghanistan and we've 224 00:15:04,590 --> 00:15:09,070 S3: ended up with the Taliban back in control. Um, the 225 00:15:09,230 --> 00:15:14,910 S3: Iraq war was not only a failure to impose US 226 00:15:15,350 --> 00:15:21,310 S3: favoured will on on Iraq, but it effectively turned Iraq 227 00:15:21,310 --> 00:15:25,990 S3: into a proxy state for Iran. It was utterly counterproductive 228 00:15:25,990 --> 00:15:29,910 S3: and also set off a chain of events which ultimately 229 00:15:29,910 --> 00:15:34,910 S3: resulted in the creation of of Islamic State or ISIS, Daesh. 230 00:15:35,470 --> 00:15:39,910 S3: That was one of the unintended consequences of America's attack 231 00:15:39,910 --> 00:15:43,470 S3: on Iraq, which of course, was aided and abetted by 232 00:15:43,510 --> 00:15:48,990 S3: Australia and Britain. So the record, um, and you can 233 00:15:48,990 --> 00:15:51,450 S3: go back to the, you know, the Vietnam War. The 234 00:15:51,450 --> 00:15:56,810 S3: record is is dire. The US puts tremendous faith in 235 00:15:56,810 --> 00:16:01,450 S3: its ability to intimidate and destroy. And while it talks 236 00:16:01,450 --> 00:16:08,450 S3: a good game about the post-war outcomes, its record is dire, 237 00:16:09,250 --> 00:16:12,690 S3: and it would have to do something spectacularly different and 238 00:16:12,690 --> 00:16:19,410 S3: discover strategic wisdom and political wisdom, in this case in Iran, 239 00:16:19,530 --> 00:16:22,610 S3: that it has yet to. That's yet to manifest anywhere 240 00:16:22,610 --> 00:16:25,010 S3: in the world under American policy. 241 00:16:25,290 --> 00:16:26,170 S2: Which I guess brings. 242 00:16:26,170 --> 00:16:29,410 S1: Us to what Donald Trump has said. He I mean, vaguely, 243 00:16:29,450 --> 00:16:32,970 S1: I guess, hopes for what will happen after these strikes 244 00:16:33,170 --> 00:16:36,170 S1: because he told the Iranian people in a video statement, 245 00:16:36,210 --> 00:16:38,610 S1: you know, when we are finished, take over your government. 246 00:16:38,610 --> 00:16:42,090 S1: It will be yours to take. So it seems like, 247 00:16:42,250 --> 00:16:44,290 S1: correct me if I'm wrong, Peter, or how you see this, 248 00:16:44,290 --> 00:16:48,290 S1: but that he is betting on the Iranian people. I 249 00:16:48,290 --> 00:16:51,000 S1: don't know how many of the 90 million Iranian people 250 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:53,760 S1: he thinks are organized to take over the government. But 251 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:55,160 S1: is that what he's betting on here? 252 00:16:55,600 --> 00:17:00,160 S3: Yes. He and Benjamin Netanyahu have both in televised appeals, 253 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,040 S3: called on the Iranian people to rise up, if you like. 254 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,760 S3: It's an implicit admission that removal of the regime is 255 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,440 S3: not in the gift of the US and or Israel, 256 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,119 S3: and it's putting responsibility for the removal of the regime 257 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,000 S3: on the Iranian people, whose bravery is not in question. 258 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,879 S3: Those those protesters last month were extremely brave, and at 259 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:22,840 S3: least 30,000 of them, as far as we can tell, 260 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:26,760 S3: paid with their lives. The Americans and the Israelis are 261 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,240 S3: now calling on the Iranian people to do so again, 262 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:33,520 S3: en masse, risk their lives to remove the regime. I 263 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,879 S3: would suggest that that is one of the two prerequisites 264 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:43,240 S3: to actually making this attack on Iran into a regime change, 265 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:47,600 S3: rather than just an assault. The that's the first is 266 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,590 S3: that is that there is a mass uprising that makes 267 00:17:51,590 --> 00:17:56,870 S3: the country ungovernable and persuades the regime into surrendering or 268 00:17:56,869 --> 00:18:00,510 S3: transferring power or collapsing. The second is that the security 269 00:18:00,550 --> 00:18:05,830 S3: forces in Iran fracture somehow, and that may be spontaneous, 270 00:18:05,830 --> 00:18:09,030 S3: that may be already underway, it may be triggered by 271 00:18:09,070 --> 00:18:12,310 S3: mass uprisings, or it might not happen at all. We 272 00:18:12,310 --> 00:18:16,230 S3: just don't know. But they I would expect you would 273 00:18:16,230 --> 00:18:20,550 S3: expect one or both of those as prelude to the 274 00:18:20,550 --> 00:18:23,870 S3: removal of the regime. Otherwise, this is a well-entrenched regime 275 00:18:24,670 --> 00:18:29,510 S3: with the country certainly under an economic meltdown. It's in 276 00:18:29,510 --> 00:18:35,950 S3: a shocking, absolutely dire condition. But the regime is practiced 277 00:18:35,950 --> 00:18:40,109 S3: in repression. It is inherently a repressive, murderous regime. It 278 00:18:40,109 --> 00:18:43,030 S3: will stop at nothing to preserve itself. So unless one 279 00:18:43,030 --> 00:18:45,830 S3: of those prerequisites is met, I would suggest that we 280 00:18:45,830 --> 00:18:48,429 S3: are more likely to see the regime endure than not. 281 00:18:48,930 --> 00:18:51,570 S1: And is there anything that Donald Trump or the administration 282 00:18:51,570 --> 00:18:55,050 S1: or other leaders have said since these strikes started, which 283 00:18:55,090 --> 00:18:57,690 S1: indicates to you? Peter, just looking on, that there is 284 00:18:57,690 --> 00:19:02,409 S1: any sophisticated plan here for the day after beyond what 285 00:19:02,410 --> 00:19:06,570 S1: we've just discussed, Donald Trump saying that, okay, Iranian people, 286 00:19:06,570 --> 00:19:08,969 S1: it's it's your turn now to take over your government. 287 00:19:09,450 --> 00:19:14,210 S3: Well, Donald Trump is, uh, either, you know, a brilliant 288 00:19:14,210 --> 00:19:20,369 S3: baffler of, uh, enemies with constantly shifting stated aims and policies, 289 00:19:20,770 --> 00:19:23,169 S3: or he's just a befuddled old fellow who doesn't know 290 00:19:23,170 --> 00:19:26,930 S3: what he's doing, because almost every pronouncement he's made about 291 00:19:26,970 --> 00:19:31,930 S3: Iran in recent months has varied from the one preceding it. 292 00:19:32,490 --> 00:19:39,290 S3: His war aims have shifted all over the place. Sometimes 293 00:19:39,290 --> 00:19:43,210 S3: there's nuclear capability involved, sometimes there's not. Sometimes there's regime 294 00:19:43,210 --> 00:19:48,160 S3: change involved, sometimes there's not. Sometimes there's, you know, it's 295 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,440 S3: just all over the place. Sometimes there's something about Hamas 296 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,080 S3: and Hezbollah, which of course, are two of the terrorist 297 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,680 S3: movements that Iran created, sponsored and supports to do its 298 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:01,119 S3: bidding around the world, including the attacks in Australia in 2024, 299 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,480 S3: for which the Iranian ambassador was expelled. But those war 300 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,280 S3: aims of Trump just keep shifting. Is he trying to 301 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,960 S3: baffle us, or does he just not know? So to 302 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,840 S3: answer your question, Samantha, it's pretty hard to see any 303 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:20,800 S3: evidence of planning depth or real purpose behind this furious fusillade. 304 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,480 S1: Okay, Peter. Well, we're so appreciative of your time. Thank 305 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:25,280 S1: you so much. 306 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:27,600 S3: Difficult subject, but always a pleasure, Samantha. 307 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:39,760 S1: Today's episode was produced by Julia Carcasole. Our executive producer 308 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,080 S1: is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa 309 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:47,240 S1: Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, follow 310 00:20:47,340 --> 00:20:49,700 S1: the morning Edition and leave a review for us on 311 00:20:49,700 --> 00:20:52,500 S1: Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.