S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
S1: This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Thursday,
S1: May 15th. In this time of political and economic chaos,
S1: we arguably need our allies more than ever. So let's
S1: cut to Tuesday evening, when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flew
S1: to Indonesia to meet its president, Prabowo Subianto. It was
S1: notable Albanese's first overseas trip since being re-elected, but recent
S1: waves of protest against Subianto have erupted in the country
S1: amidst fears that the president is taking Indonesia back to
S1: its authoritarian past. Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher
S1: on what sort of ally Anthony Albanese has in Indonesia's
S1: leader Prabowo Subianto. Okay, Peter. Tell me about the significance
S1: of Anthony Albanese making a trip to Indonesia yesterday. We
S1: know this was his first overseas stop after being re-elected
S1: as prime minister. So is this something that makes the
S1: ears of leaders around the world prick up?
S2: Well, in one way, no, because it's the most obvious
S2: and natural thing in the world to do. And he's
S2: not the first prime minister to make his first trip
S2: to Jakarta, because it's really our only strategically significant neighbour.
S2: It's a mighty country of nearly 300 million people, an
S2: enormous arc of archipelagic islands that stretch over a couple
S2: of thousands of kilometres across all our northern approaches. So
S2: it's it's a hugely important country for us, and it's
S2: natural that you'd visit your closest and most important neighbour. Sorry.
S2: New Zealand.
S1: Yeah. Fair.
S2: Um, but in another sense, it does make other leaders
S2: ears prick up, because it's a country that China and
S2: Russia both want to extend their influence over. And there's
S2: a competition afoot, and Australia is on the other side
S2: of that competition. Obviously we want to we want to
S2: keep relations with Indonesia as solid as possible to protect
S2: not only only our economic, but also, critically, our strategic
S2: future and to prevent Indonesia falling too closely into the
S2: orbit of either China or Russia, which are obviously predator states.
S2: Russia just wants to throw its weight around and do
S2: as much damage as possible in the world. But China
S2: is larger, smarter and longer term and wants to dominate
S2: the world. So this is why Indonesia is such a
S2: vital threshold and swing state and it's tradition all during
S2: the Cold War, all during the post-war period and until
S2: now is to be a non-aligned nation. It was actually
S2: one of the co-founders with India of the Non-Aligned movement,
S2: which had its first meeting in the city of Bandung
S2: in Indonesia. and this was the group of countries that
S2: refused to take sides overtly with either the Americans or
S2: the Soviet Union, and they still see that as their
S2: central defining characteristic in the modern world.
S1: That's really interesting. I had never heard that before. And
S1: if this country is so important to us, obviously crucial
S1: to that is who's leading it. So can you please
S1: tell us about Indonesia's president Prabowo Subianto?
S2: Prabowo is, I think, an absolutely fascinating figure. For years,
S2: he was on an unofficial blacklist and refused permission to
S2: travel to Australia. The Americans being, you know, a little
S2: bit more obvious about things, actually put him on a
S2: blacklist and refused to give him a visa for many years.
S2: And now he's the president of the world's third most
S2: populous democracy. So what's happened? Um, he was born with
S2: Javanese royal blood in his veins. Was, uh, allowed to
S2: marry one of the daughters of the long ruling dictator
S2: of Indonesia. Suharto and Suharto, then made him the head
S2: of the special forces in Indonesia called Kopassus, which is
S2: at any time an important and powerful job. But for Suharto,
S2: he wanted Prabowo doing this job to be his political enforcer,
S2: to the point where Prabowo was suspected of and reported
S2: to have committed all sorts of human rights abuses, quashing dissidents, torturing,
S2: and all the rest of it to protect Suharto's regime.
S2: And that's the reason that ultimately he was banned from
S2: visiting Australia and the US. But in the meantime. I mean,
S2: here's an extraordinary anecdote that tells you a lot about this.
S2: This man, as the head of Indonesian special forces, as
S2: the Suharto regime is toppling and literally in its last days,
S2: it was the last 2 or 3 days it was
S2: reported that Prabowo went to see his father in law
S2: in the presidential palace, the Istana merdeka, which means a
S2: freedom palace in in Jakarta. But the fascinating detail is
S2: that the palace staff would not let Prabowo in to
S2: see his father in law, the dictator Suharto, until he
S2: removed his sidearm and they had an argument about it. Now,
S2: why would that be? Evidently, they feared that he was
S2: there not to consult or help his father in law,
S2: but to murder him and seize power through a coup. Wow.
S2: In the dying days of his father in law's regime.
S2: So this is paints a picture of a pretty ruthless
S2: and pretty opportunistic sort of character. After those years, Indonesia
S2: became democratic. Thank goodness for that. Prabowo had several cracks
S2: at the presidency until finally last year, he broke through
S2: not as a military strongman because he had campaigned rather colourfully,
S2: riding a white stallion. That's right. And giving these xenophobic
S2: tirades to mobs in arenas. And it was quite a
S2: quite a scene, but that didn't work for him. So
S2: at the last election, he, he transformed himself into what
S2: was called Cute grandpa. He adopted the Donald Trump dance moves.
S2: He went crazy on TikTok and a younger generation. And
S2: there's a huge number of Indonesia is a very young
S2: country demographically who didn't know about his years. And they
S2: were last century as this dangerous alleged human rights violator
S2: just fell in love with cute grandpa. And now he's president.
S1: And we know that when he was elected last year,
S1: he won in a landslide election victory. And it was
S1: with the backing of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, who I
S1: know we've spoken about. He was enormously popular, and I
S1: believe at the time he had said that he was
S1: going to carry on with, uh, jokowi's works. Like, what
S1: sort of president has he become after this really quite
S1: fascinating transformation? At least a fascinating one from the outside.
S1: I don't know what's happening on the inside.
S2: Yes. Well, one thing that he brought into into being
S2: was his central campaign promise to the people of Indonesia,
S2: which is a free daily meals program for every school
S2: pupil in the country and for nursing and pregnant mothers.
S2: And the idea was, firstly, it's obviously an anti-poverty measure
S2: because Indonesia was making solid gains against poverty until the
S2: Covid pandemic, which really set it back. And there's been
S2: a big rise in stunting of children's growth, which has
S2: become a real national scandal. So Prabowo said, I'm going
S2: to give free school meals and to and to mums,
S2: young mums, pregnant, pregnant and nursing mums to overcome this problem,
S2: which is more than 80 million people to get food
S2: to daily. But it's happening, it's happening, it's started, it's
S2: well advanced. But if you think about the scale of
S2: 80 million people daily on a government handout of of
S2: food in a in a country that's made up of
S2: more than 10,000 islands. I mean, even just conducting an
S2: election there is difficult enough, much less a daily food program.
S2: It's extraordinary. The problem, the real problem with it is
S2: the cost. And this this has created all sorts of
S2: problems because they've cut funding for everything else to fund
S2: a thing. This program is nearly 30 billion USD, 50
S2: billion AUD a year.
S1: Well, this gets us to my next question, because you've
S1: written that he is enormously popular right now. But at
S1: the same time, you've written about nationwide protests against Prabowo.
S1: So tell us what sparked them.
S2: Yes, he is very popular, and partly it's because he's new.
S2: He only took power in October, and partly because this
S2: food program is what he promised. And it is a
S2: popular thing. But because they've had to cut money from
S2: a whole bunch of other areas of government outlay, it's
S2: it's created a big concern. And the protest movement that
S2: you've referenced, it's led by university students. The protest movement
S2: is called Dark Indonesia. And it's called Dark Indonesia. In
S2: juxtaposition to Prabowo's stated vision for the future of Indonesia,
S2: which he calls Golden Indonesia, and his vision of Golden
S2: Indonesia is to turn it into a fully developed country
S2: in 20 years a democratic, rich, powerful country in 20 years.
S2: But the student protesters have said no. What we see
S2: coming is dark Indonesia, and one of the the biggest
S2: reasons that they're on the streets, and this started in
S2: February and it's still rolling on sporadically, is the cuts
S2: to education funding, which affected both schools and universities. And
S2: the university protest movement is saying you, Prabowo, are trying
S2: to crush and extinguish education in this country and knowledge.
S2: But at the same time, we think you're making moves
S2: to restore the power of the military. And we fear
S2: that you're taking Indonesia back to being a military dictatorship.
S1: We'll be right back. Well, tell me about this, because
S1: we know that Prabowo's decision to widen the scope of
S1: the military's involvement in civilian affairs, it really has aroused
S1: deep fears within the country. Right. So tell us what
S1: he has done.
S2: Well, on the symbolic level. He gave his new cabinet
S2: a bit of a jolt at the beginning of the
S2: term by taking them all, making them wear combat fatigues
S2: and taking them all on a three day military boot camp.
S2: I don't know how the Australian cabinet would go if
S2: they were all put in fatigues and sent on a
S2: three day boot camp.
S1: I mean, that's kind of got XI Jinping vibes, doesn't it?
S2: It does. It's got tough guy, military, militaristic sort of vibes.
S2: But the more substantial stuff is, for example, the food
S2: program that we talked about, some of that is being
S2: carried out, the food delivered every day by the military.
S2: And the protest movement is saying, well, hang on, you
S2: shouldn't be using the military for civil duties like that.
S2: More troublingly, though, is his, uh, he has created a
S2: law to open up more civilian jobs at senior levels
S2: in the government, to the army, to active duty military officers. Now,
S2: that was that was the case under Suharto. One of
S2: the Post-suharto reforms was to stop that, to put in
S2: place a bunch of guardrails, of which this is an
S2: important one, to stop the military coming back into power
S2: and running the country. So the concern is that this
S2: is the thin edge of the wedge, and that he's
S2: going to continue to reinstall the military at the heart
S2: of the government.
S1: And it is scary, isn't it? I think I read somewhere,
S1: probably in your piece that, you know, in doing so,
S1: in clearing the way for military officers to fill civilian positions,
S1: we're talking about, you know, for instance, positions in the
S1: attorney general's office. I mean, that's clearly something of a
S1: terrifying proposition if the country or others are concerned about.
S1: Some backslide into the days of Suharto and dictatorship.
S2: Yes. And that fear is really at the center of
S2: Indonesia's consciousness is that, you know, we are we are
S2: still a fairly fresh democracy. We are a young country,
S2: and we haven't yet really cemented our democratic structures, natures
S2: and habits. So they're very sensitive to it. And look
S2: around the world. We're into an era of tough guy
S2: dictators and would be dictators and autocrats. So it's it's
S2: a it's a reasonable fear. There's also been a resurgence
S2: of the traditional Indonesian problem of corruption under Prabowo. The,
S2: the major media organization in Indonesia named tempo, has been
S2: doing lots of investigative reporting, showing that, among other things,
S2: Prabowo's family and cronies are in in powerful positions controlling
S2: the food program rollout and and other programs.
S1: Well, I guess this brings us back to Albaneses trip
S1: to Indonesia. So do we know what our Prime Minister
S1: has spoken to Prabowo about, or still plans to speak
S1: to him about? Do we know what the goal with
S1: this visit is, and how much Albanese is likely to achieve?
S2: Well, we know what they've talked about. On the initial
S2: phone call, when Prabowo phoned Albanese to congratulate him on
S2: his re-election as prime minister because without Albanese knowing, Prabowo
S2: filmed it and put it put the video up in
S2: public for everybody to see, which was pretty funny.
S3: I like to congratulate you on your great victory. I
S3: was so happy. I was so happy. I was so happy.
S4: I want Indonesia to be my first visit.
S3: Great honor, great honor. Good. Yes. Yes, yes.
S4: It's an unbreakable.
S3: Bond. Right, right, right.
S2: So Albanese was shocked when his staff told him. Hey,
S2: did you know?
S1: And why would he have done that? What was the
S1: goal there from Prabowo?
S2: He likes to show himself off to the Indonesian people
S2: as being a big man, a guy that other leaders
S2: want to talk to. Fortunately for Albanese, it was just
S2: a pretty backslapping, convivial phone call. Yeah, there was a
S2: slight twinge of embarrassment because it caught Albanese saying to Prabowo, now,
S2: can I come to Indonesia? Do you want to invite me?
S2: Rather than waiting to be invited? But Prabowo said, oh,
S2: of course, you know. And they do have a good,
S2: good personal relationship. Those two on the agenda are a
S2: few things. What Prabowo wants most of all is what
S2: his predecessor wanted. Most of all, Jokowi also wanted to
S2: get Indonesia out of the middle income trap. so-called, and
S2: make it get it on the path to being a
S2: wealthy country. That's their primary aim. And so Albanese goes
S2: there to talk to, and I did ask Albanese about
S2: this before he travelled, actually. Uh, Albanese is going there
S2: to talk principally about trade and investment and the economic relationship.
S2: And that's smart because it's what Prabowo most wants. It's
S2: also the times, because of the Trump disruption to global trade,
S2: but overshadowing all of that. And I'm not sure how
S2: blatantly they'll talk about it, is the China and Russia
S2: factor and the fact that they want to win Indonesia
S2: over to to their team, to the predator Predators team
S2: against Australia's interests.
S1: Okay. But then we've got the news just in the
S1: last couple of days that China and the US have
S1: de-escalated their trade war. They've both dropped a lot of
S1: the tariffs that they'd put on each other. So does
S1: that change the calculations of how much we need Indonesia
S1: I guess for for trade or not. Like what impact
S1: does that have on us?
S2: Well, it's helpful if the tariff war between the US
S2: and China doesn't occur. It's helpful for everybody in the
S2: world because it's one of the world's biggest two way
S2: trade flows. And to to cut it off. And those
S2: tariffs were so punitively eye wateringly high that effectively it
S2: was going to kill just about all trade between the
S2: US and China. So for that not to happen is
S2: a positive for the world economy, because it was expected
S2: to send the world economy into a downturn and the
S2: US into recession, and China's already struggling to maintain its growth.
S2: It's it's in economic trouble. But that global effect is
S2: what would have hurt Australia most. If that's not happening,
S2: that's a good thing. However, the the Tony and 90
S2: day suspension of the US-China tariffs on each other while
S2: they try to negotiate something. And so far, Trump has
S2: failed to successfully negotiate any of the things that he promised.
S2: So in that in that circumstance, yes, Australia in fact,
S2: government position for years in multiple prime ministers has been.
S2: This trade relationship with Indonesia is really undercooked. It's a
S2: tiny amount of of trade relative to the size of
S2: the two economies. We need to do more. And there's
S2: a strategy for that. Government's been pursuing for a couple
S2: of years. It hasn't really produced much of value. But
S2: this is a new opportunity. Partly thanks to Donald Trump
S2: to revive or to at least create a larger two
S2: way trade flow.
S1: Okay, Peter, so just to wrap up, I did want
S1: to ask you, you know, there's fears within Indonesia and
S1: I guess outside of it as well, that Prabowo is
S1: eroding freedoms, perhaps even veering into authoritarianism. Does that lead
S1: this to be something dangerous politically for Albanese to increase
S1: trade with such a regime?
S2: I suppose it's always a risk. But, you know, Samantha,
S2: we've had no trouble expanding trade with autocrats. China is
S2: our largest trading partner. Vietnam is another. And the government
S2: has been working hard to increase trade and political relations
S2: with Vietnam. So really, the reason that Albanese wants to
S2: improve the trading and general relationship is first to directly
S2: advance Australia's interests in the short run, but second, to
S2: help Indonesia grow into the mode of a prosperous democratic
S2: nation and not to be captured by the fears that
S2: the protesters in the dark Indonesia movement are imagining.
S1: So perhaps even help in some way to protect the
S1: country from going to becoming a dictatorship.
S2: Exactly. To give Jakarta choices. To give it options. So
S2: that it doesn't see its future tied up only with
S2: China or only with Russia, and that it continues to
S2: have its options open and to cooperate with Australia. Australia
S2: signed its first really significant defence cooperation agreement with Indonesia
S2: just last year under Jokowi. So to keep those options
S2: open so it doesn't become captive of a dictatorship to
S2: the north is a critical equity for Australia, and that's
S2: the overarching aim of what Albanese is doing.
S1: Well, thank you so much, Peter. As always.
S2: A pleasure, Samantha.
S1: For your time. Today's episode of The Morning Edition was
S1: produced by myself and Josh towers. Our executive producer is
S1: Tammy Mills. Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To
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S1: I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks for listening.