WEBVTT - Is Indonesia’s 'fresh democracy' under threat?

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<v S1>From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

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<v S1>This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris. It's Thursday,

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<v S1>May 15th. In this time of political and economic chaos,

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<v S1>we arguably need our allies more than ever. So let's

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<v S1>cut to Tuesday evening, when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flew

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<v S1>to Indonesia to meet its president, Prabowo Subianto. It was

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<v S1>notable Albanese's first overseas trip since being re-elected, but recent

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<v S1>waves of protest against Subianto have erupted in the country

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<v S1>amidst fears that the president is taking Indonesia back to

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<v S1>its authoritarian past. Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher

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<v S1>on what sort of ally Anthony Albanese has in Indonesia's

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<v S1>leader Prabowo Subianto. Okay, Peter. Tell me about the significance

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<v S1>of Anthony Albanese making a trip to Indonesia yesterday. We

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<v S1>know this was his first overseas stop after being re-elected

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<v S1>as prime minister. So is this something that makes the

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<v S1>ears of leaders around the world prick up?

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<v S2>Well, in one way, no, because it's the most obvious

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<v S2>and natural thing in the world to do. And he's

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<v S2>not the first prime minister to make his first trip

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<v S2>to Jakarta, because it's really our only strategically significant neighbour.

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<v S2>It's a mighty country of nearly 300 million people, an

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<v S2>enormous arc of archipelagic islands that stretch over a couple

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<v S2>of thousands of kilometres across all our northern approaches. So

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<v S2>it's it's a hugely important country for us, and it's

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<v S2>natural that you'd visit your closest and most important neighbour. Sorry.

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<v S2>New Zealand.

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<v S1>Yeah. Fair.

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<v S2>Um, but in another sense, it does make other leaders

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<v S2>ears prick up, because it's a country that China and

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<v S2>Russia both want to extend their influence over. And there's

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<v S2>a competition afoot, and Australia is on the other side

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<v S2>of that competition. Obviously we want to we want to

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<v S2>keep relations with Indonesia as solid as possible to protect

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<v S2>not only only our economic, but also, critically, our strategic

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<v S2>future and to prevent Indonesia falling too closely into the

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<v S2>orbit of either China or Russia, which are obviously predator states.

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<v S2>Russia just wants to throw its weight around and do

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<v S2>as much damage as possible in the world. But China

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<v S2>is larger, smarter and longer term and wants to dominate

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<v S2>the world. So this is why Indonesia is such a

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<v S2>vital threshold and swing state and it's tradition all during

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<v S2>the Cold War, all during the post-war period and until

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<v S2>now is to be a non-aligned nation. It was actually

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<v S2>one of the co-founders with India of the Non-Aligned movement,

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<v S2>which had its first meeting in the city of Bandung

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<v S2>in Indonesia. and this was the group of countries that

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<v S2>refused to take sides overtly with either the Americans or

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<v S2>the Soviet Union, and they still see that as their

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<v S2>central defining characteristic in the modern world.

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<v S1>That's really interesting. I had never heard that before. And

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<v S1>if this country is so important to us, obviously crucial

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<v S1>to that is who's leading it. So can you please

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<v S1>tell us about Indonesia's president Prabowo Subianto?

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<v S2>Prabowo is, I think, an absolutely fascinating figure. For years,

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<v S2>he was on an unofficial blacklist and refused permission to

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<v S2>travel to Australia. The Americans being, you know, a little

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<v S2>bit more obvious about things, actually put him on a

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<v S2>blacklist and refused to give him a visa for many years.

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<v S2>And now he's the president of the world's third most

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<v S2>populous democracy. So what's happened? Um, he was born with

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<v S2>Javanese royal blood in his veins. Was, uh, allowed to

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<v S2>marry one of the daughters of the long ruling dictator

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<v S2>of Indonesia. Suharto and Suharto, then made him the head

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<v S2>of the special forces in Indonesia called Kopassus, which is

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<v S2>at any time an important and powerful job. But for Suharto,

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<v S2>he wanted Prabowo doing this job to be his political enforcer,

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<v S2>to the point where Prabowo was suspected of and reported

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<v S2>to have committed all sorts of human rights abuses, quashing dissidents, torturing,

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<v S2>and all the rest of it to protect Suharto's regime.

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<v S2>And that's the reason that ultimately he was banned from

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<v S2>visiting Australia and the US. But in the meantime. I mean,

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<v S2>here's an extraordinary anecdote that tells you a lot about this.

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<v S2>This man, as the head of Indonesian special forces, as

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<v S2>the Suharto regime is toppling and literally in its last days,

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<v S2>it was the last 2 or 3 days it was

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<v S2>reported that Prabowo went to see his father in law

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<v S2>in the presidential palace, the Istana merdeka, which means a

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<v S2>freedom palace in in Jakarta. But the fascinating detail is

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<v S2>that the palace staff would not let Prabowo in to

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<v S2>see his father in law, the dictator Suharto, until he

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<v S2>removed his sidearm and they had an argument about it. Now,

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<v S2>why would that be? Evidently, they feared that he was

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<v S2>there not to consult or help his father in law,

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<v S2>but to murder him and seize power through a coup. Wow.

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<v S2>In the dying days of his father in law's regime.

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<v S2>So this is paints a picture of a pretty ruthless

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<v S2>and pretty opportunistic sort of character. After those years, Indonesia

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<v S2>became democratic. Thank goodness for that. Prabowo had several cracks

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<v S2>at the presidency until finally last year, he broke through

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<v S2>not as a military strongman because he had campaigned rather colourfully,

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<v S2>riding a white stallion. That's right. And giving these xenophobic

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<v S2>tirades to mobs in arenas. And it was quite a

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<v S2>quite a scene, but that didn't work for him. So

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<v S2>at the last election, he, he transformed himself into what

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<v S2>was called Cute grandpa. He adopted the Donald Trump dance moves.

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<v S2>He went crazy on TikTok and a younger generation. And

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<v S2>there's a huge number of Indonesia is a very young

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<v S2>country demographically who didn't know about his years. And they

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<v S2>were last century as this dangerous alleged human rights violator

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<v S2>just fell in love with cute grandpa. And now he's president.

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<v S1>And we know that when he was elected last year,

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<v S1>he won in a landslide election victory. And it was

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<v S1>with the backing of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, who I

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<v S1>know we've spoken about. He was enormously popular, and I

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<v S1>believe at the time he had said that he was

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<v S1>going to carry on with, uh, jokowi's works. Like, what

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<v S1>sort of president has he become after this really quite

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<v S1>fascinating transformation? At least a fascinating one from the outside.

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<v S1>I don't know what's happening on the inside.

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<v S2>Yes. Well, one thing that he brought into into being

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<v S2>was his central campaign promise to the people of Indonesia,

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<v S2>which is a free daily meals program for every school

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<v S2>pupil in the country and for nursing and pregnant mothers.

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<v S2>And the idea was, firstly, it's obviously an anti-poverty measure

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<v S2>because Indonesia was making solid gains against poverty until the

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<v S2>Covid pandemic, which really set it back. And there's been

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<v S2>a big rise in stunting of children's growth, which has

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<v S2>become a real national scandal. So Prabowo said, I'm going

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<v S2>to give free school meals and to and to mums,

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<v S2>young mums, pregnant, pregnant and nursing mums to overcome this problem,

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<v S2>which is more than 80 million people to get food

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<v S2>to daily. But it's happening, it's happening, it's started, it's

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<v S2>well advanced. But if you think about the scale of

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<v S2>80 million people daily on a government handout of of

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<v S2>food in a in a country that's made up of

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<v S2>more than 10,000 islands. I mean, even just conducting an

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<v S2>election there is difficult enough, much less a daily food program.

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<v S2>It's extraordinary. The problem, the real problem with it is

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<v S2>the cost. And this this has created all sorts of

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<v S2>problems because they've cut funding for everything else to fund

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<v S2>a thing. This program is nearly 30 billion USD, 50

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<v S2>billion AUD a year.

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<v S1>Well, this gets us to my next question, because you've

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<v S1>written that he is enormously popular right now. But at

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<v S1>the same time, you've written about nationwide protests against Prabowo.

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<v S1>So tell us what sparked them.

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<v S2>Yes, he is very popular, and partly it's because he's new.

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<v S2>He only took power in October, and partly because this

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<v S2>food program is what he promised. And it is a

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<v S2>popular thing. But because they've had to cut money from

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<v S2>a whole bunch of other areas of government outlay, it's

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<v S2>it's created a big concern. And the protest movement that

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<v S2>you've referenced, it's led by university students. The protest movement

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<v S2>is called Dark Indonesia. And it's called Dark Indonesia. In

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<v S2>juxtaposition to Prabowo's stated vision for the future of Indonesia,

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<v S2>which he calls Golden Indonesia, and his vision of Golden

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<v S2>Indonesia is to turn it into a fully developed country

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<v S2>in 20 years a democratic, rich, powerful country in 20 years.

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<v S2>But the student protesters have said no. What we see

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<v S2>coming is dark Indonesia, and one of the the biggest

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<v S2>reasons that they're on the streets, and this started in

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<v S2>February and it's still rolling on sporadically, is the cuts

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<v S2>to education funding, which affected both schools and universities. And

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<v S2>the university protest movement is saying you, Prabowo, are trying

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<v S2>to crush and extinguish education in this country and knowledge.

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<v S2>But at the same time, we think you're making moves

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<v S2>to restore the power of the military. And we fear

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<v S2>that you're taking Indonesia back to being a military dictatorship.

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<v S1>We'll be right back. Well, tell me about this, because

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<v S1>we know that Prabowo's decision to widen the scope of

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<v S1>the military's involvement in civilian affairs, it really has aroused

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<v S1>deep fears within the country. Right. So tell us what

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<v S1>he has done.

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<v S2>Well, on the symbolic level. He gave his new cabinet

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<v S2>a bit of a jolt at the beginning of the

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<v S2>term by taking them all, making them wear combat fatigues

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<v S2>and taking them all on a three day military boot camp.

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<v S2>I don't know how the Australian cabinet would go if

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<v S2>they were all put in fatigues and sent on a

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<v S2>three day boot camp.

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<v S1>I mean, that's kind of got XI Jinping vibes, doesn't it?

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<v S2>It does. It's got tough guy, military, militaristic sort of vibes.

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<v S2>But the more substantial stuff is, for example, the food

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<v S2>program that we talked about, some of that is being

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<v S2>carried out, the food delivered every day by the military.

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<v S2>And the protest movement is saying, well, hang on, you

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<v S2>shouldn't be using the military for civil duties like that.

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<v S2>More troublingly, though, is his, uh, he has created a

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<v S2>law to open up more civilian jobs at senior levels

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<v S2>in the government, to the army, to active duty military officers. Now,

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<v S2>that was that was the case under Suharto. One of

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<v S2>the Post-suharto reforms was to stop that, to put in

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<v S2>place a bunch of guardrails, of which this is an

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<v S2>important one, to stop the military coming back into power

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<v S2>and running the country. So the concern is that this

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<v S2>is the thin edge of the wedge, and that he's

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<v S2>going to continue to reinstall the military at the heart

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<v S2>of the government.

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<v S1>And it is scary, isn't it? I think I read somewhere,

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<v S1>probably in your piece that, you know, in doing so,

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<v S1>in clearing the way for military officers to fill civilian positions,

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<v S1>we're talking about, you know, for instance, positions in the

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<v S1>attorney general's office. I mean, that's clearly something of a

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<v S1>terrifying proposition if the country or others are concerned about.

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<v S1>Some backslide into the days of Suharto and dictatorship.

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<v S2>Yes. And that fear is really at the center of

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<v S2>Indonesia's consciousness is that, you know, we are we are

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<v S2>still a fairly fresh democracy. We are a young country,

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<v S2>and we haven't yet really cemented our democratic structures, natures

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<v S2>and habits. So they're very sensitive to it. And look

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<v S2>around the world. We're into an era of tough guy

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<v S2>dictators and would be dictators and autocrats. So it's it's

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<v S2>a it's a reasonable fear. There's also been a resurgence

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<v S2>of the traditional Indonesian problem of corruption under Prabowo. The,

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<v S2>the major media organization in Indonesia named tempo, has been

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<v S2>doing lots of investigative reporting, showing that, among other things,

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<v S2>Prabowo's family and cronies are in in powerful positions controlling

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<v S2>the food program rollout and and other programs.

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<v S1>Well, I guess this brings us back to Albaneses trip

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<v S1>to Indonesia. So do we know what our Prime Minister

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<v S1>has spoken to Prabowo about, or still plans to speak

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<v S1>to him about? Do we know what the goal with

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<v S1>this visit is, and how much Albanese is likely to achieve?

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<v S2>Well, we know what they've talked about. On the initial

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<v S2>phone call, when Prabowo phoned Albanese to congratulate him on

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<v S2>his re-election as prime minister because without Albanese knowing, Prabowo

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<v S2>filmed it and put it put the video up in

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<v S2>public for everybody to see, which was pretty funny.

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<v S3>I like to congratulate you on your great victory. I

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<v S3>was so happy. I was so happy. I was so happy.

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<v S4>I want Indonesia to be my first visit.

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<v S3>Great honor, great honor. Good. Yes. Yes, yes.

0:14:07.750 --> 0:14:09.150
<v S4>It's an unbreakable.

0:14:09.150 --> 0:14:10.270
<v S3>Bond. Right, right, right.

0:14:10.309 --> 0:14:13.870
<v S2>So Albanese was shocked when his staff told him. Hey,

0:14:13.870 --> 0:14:14.470
<v S2>did you know?

0:14:14.550 --> 0:14:15.830
<v S1>And why would he have done that? What was the

0:14:15.870 --> 0:14:16.910
<v S1>goal there from Prabowo?

0:14:17.070 --> 0:14:20.150
<v S2>He likes to show himself off to the Indonesian people

0:14:20.470 --> 0:14:23.390
<v S2>as being a big man, a guy that other leaders

0:14:23.390 --> 0:14:26.910
<v S2>want to talk to. Fortunately for Albanese, it was just

0:14:26.910 --> 0:14:31.190
<v S2>a pretty backslapping, convivial phone call. Yeah, there was a

0:14:31.190 --> 0:14:35.790
<v S2>slight twinge of embarrassment because it caught Albanese saying to Prabowo, now,

0:14:36.190 --> 0:14:38.270
<v S2>can I come to Indonesia? Do you want to invite me?

0:14:38.310 --> 0:14:42.110
<v S2>Rather than waiting to be invited? But Prabowo said, oh,

0:14:42.150 --> 0:14:44.590
<v S2>of course, you know. And they do have a good,

0:14:44.910 --> 0:14:51.470
<v S2>good personal relationship. Those two on the agenda are a

0:14:51.510 --> 0:14:56.590
<v S2>few things. What Prabowo wants most of all is what

0:14:56.590 --> 0:15:00.230
<v S2>his predecessor wanted. Most of all, Jokowi also wanted to

0:15:00.270 --> 0:15:05.510
<v S2>get Indonesia out of the middle income trap. so-called, and

0:15:05.510 --> 0:15:07.030
<v S2>make it get it on the path to being a

0:15:07.030 --> 0:15:11.110
<v S2>wealthy country. That's their primary aim. And so Albanese goes

0:15:11.110 --> 0:15:14.390
<v S2>there to talk to, and I did ask Albanese about

0:15:14.390 --> 0:15:18.430
<v S2>this before he travelled, actually. Uh, Albanese is going there

0:15:18.430 --> 0:15:22.430
<v S2>to talk principally about trade and investment and the economic relationship.

0:15:22.830 --> 0:15:25.510
<v S2>And that's smart because it's what Prabowo most wants. It's

0:15:25.510 --> 0:15:28.950
<v S2>also the times, because of the Trump disruption to global trade,

0:15:28.950 --> 0:15:31.630
<v S2>but overshadowing all of that. And I'm not sure how

0:15:31.630 --> 0:15:34.710
<v S2>blatantly they'll talk about it, is the China and Russia

0:15:34.750 --> 0:15:39.230
<v S2>factor and the fact that they want to win Indonesia

0:15:39.270 --> 0:15:43.550
<v S2>over to to their team, to the predator Predators team

0:15:44.070 --> 0:15:45.630
<v S2>against Australia's interests.

0:15:45.830 --> 0:15:47.430
<v S1>Okay. But then we've got the news just in the

0:15:47.430 --> 0:15:49.470
<v S1>last couple of days that China and the US have

0:15:49.470 --> 0:15:52.350
<v S1>de-escalated their trade war. They've both dropped a lot of

0:15:52.390 --> 0:15:54.390
<v S1>the tariffs that they'd put on each other. So does

0:15:54.390 --> 0:15:57.270
<v S1>that change the calculations of how much we need Indonesia

0:15:57.310 --> 0:15:59.550
<v S1>I guess for for trade or not. Like what impact

0:15:59.550 --> 0:16:00.430
<v S1>does that have on us?

0:16:00.470 --> 0:16:03.950
<v S2>Well, it's helpful if the tariff war between the US

0:16:03.950 --> 0:16:07.380
<v S2>and China doesn't occur. It's helpful for everybody in the

0:16:07.380 --> 0:16:10.340
<v S2>world because it's one of the world's biggest two way

0:16:10.380 --> 0:16:14.100
<v S2>trade flows. And to to cut it off. And those

0:16:14.100 --> 0:16:18.740
<v S2>tariffs were so punitively eye wateringly high that effectively it

0:16:18.740 --> 0:16:21.540
<v S2>was going to kill just about all trade between the

0:16:21.540 --> 0:16:24.740
<v S2>US and China. So for that not to happen is

0:16:24.740 --> 0:16:27.380
<v S2>a positive for the world economy, because it was expected

0:16:27.380 --> 0:16:31.500
<v S2>to send the world economy into a downturn and the

0:16:31.500 --> 0:16:35.740
<v S2>US into recession, and China's already struggling to maintain its growth.

0:16:35.780 --> 0:16:40.580
<v S2>It's it's in economic trouble. But that global effect is

0:16:40.580 --> 0:16:43.500
<v S2>what would have hurt Australia most. If that's not happening,

0:16:43.500 --> 0:16:46.860
<v S2>that's a good thing. However, the the Tony and 90

0:16:46.900 --> 0:16:50.940
<v S2>day suspension of the US-China tariffs on each other while

0:16:50.940 --> 0:16:53.820
<v S2>they try to negotiate something. And so far, Trump has

0:16:53.820 --> 0:16:57.580
<v S2>failed to successfully negotiate any of the things that he promised.

0:16:57.580 --> 0:17:01.100
<v S2>So in that in that circumstance, yes, Australia in fact,

0:17:01.140 --> 0:17:04.700
<v S2>government position for years in multiple prime ministers has been.

0:17:05.300 --> 0:17:09.540
<v S2>This trade relationship with Indonesia is really undercooked. It's a

0:17:09.540 --> 0:17:12.540
<v S2>tiny amount of of trade relative to the size of

0:17:12.540 --> 0:17:15.899
<v S2>the two economies. We need to do more. And there's

0:17:15.900 --> 0:17:18.860
<v S2>a strategy for that. Government's been pursuing for a couple

0:17:18.900 --> 0:17:24.540
<v S2>of years. It hasn't really produced much of value. But

0:17:24.540 --> 0:17:27.820
<v S2>this is a new opportunity. Partly thanks to Donald Trump

0:17:28.619 --> 0:17:31.420
<v S2>to revive or to at least create a larger two

0:17:31.420 --> 0:17:32.260
<v S2>way trade flow.

0:17:32.780 --> 0:17:34.700
<v S1>Okay, Peter, so just to wrap up, I did want

0:17:34.740 --> 0:17:37.340
<v S1>to ask you, you know, there's fears within Indonesia and

0:17:37.380 --> 0:17:39.540
<v S1>I guess outside of it as well, that Prabowo is

0:17:39.540 --> 0:17:44.900
<v S1>eroding freedoms, perhaps even veering into authoritarianism. Does that lead

0:17:44.900 --> 0:17:47.940
<v S1>this to be something dangerous politically for Albanese to increase

0:17:47.940 --> 0:17:49.780
<v S1>trade with such a regime?

0:17:50.060 --> 0:17:53.460
<v S2>I suppose it's always a risk. But, you know, Samantha,

0:17:53.460 --> 0:17:59.460
<v S2>we've had no trouble expanding trade with autocrats. China is

0:17:59.460 --> 0:18:03.859
<v S2>our largest trading partner. Vietnam is another. And the government

0:18:03.859 --> 0:18:07.660
<v S2>has been working hard to increase trade and political relations

0:18:07.660 --> 0:18:11.260
<v S2>with Vietnam. So really, the reason that Albanese wants to

0:18:11.580 --> 0:18:15.420
<v S2>improve the trading and general relationship is first to directly

0:18:15.420 --> 0:18:18.500
<v S2>advance Australia's interests in the short run, but second, to

0:18:18.500 --> 0:18:23.020
<v S2>help Indonesia grow into the mode of a prosperous democratic

0:18:23.020 --> 0:18:26.820
<v S2>nation and not to be captured by the fears that

0:18:26.820 --> 0:18:29.980
<v S2>the protesters in the dark Indonesia movement are imagining.

0:18:29.980 --> 0:18:32.260
<v S1>So perhaps even help in some way to protect the

0:18:32.260 --> 0:18:35.100
<v S1>country from going to becoming a dictatorship.

0:18:35.140 --> 0:18:42.220
<v S2>Exactly. To give Jakarta choices. To give it options. So

0:18:42.220 --> 0:18:44.940
<v S2>that it doesn't see its future tied up only with

0:18:44.940 --> 0:18:49.659
<v S2>China or only with Russia, and that it continues to

0:18:49.700 --> 0:18:53.780
<v S2>have its options open and to cooperate with Australia. Australia

0:18:53.820 --> 0:18:58.139
<v S2>signed its first really significant defence cooperation agreement with Indonesia

0:18:58.140 --> 0:19:02.580
<v S2>just last year under Jokowi. So to keep those options

0:19:02.580 --> 0:19:06.380
<v S2>open so it doesn't become captive of a dictatorship to

0:19:06.420 --> 0:19:09.380
<v S2>the north is a critical equity for Australia, and that's

0:19:09.380 --> 0:19:11.500
<v S2>the overarching aim of what Albanese is doing.

0:19:12.980 --> 0:19:15.100
<v S1>Well, thank you so much, Peter. As always.

0:19:15.100 --> 0:19:15.940
<v S2>A pleasure, Samantha.

0:19:15.940 --> 0:19:23.980
<v S1>For your time. Today's episode of The Morning Edition was

0:19:23.980 --> 0:19:27.780
<v S1>produced by myself and Josh towers. Our executive producer is

0:19:27.780 --> 0:19:31.419
<v S1>Tammy Mills. Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To

0:19:31.460 --> 0:19:34.300
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<v S1>news in your inbox every morning. Links are in the show. Notes.

0:19:58.340 --> 0:20:01.459
<v S1>I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. Thanks for listening.