1 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:07,440 S1: Can the coalition reunite after two weeks of political infighting? 2 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,200 S1: And will the Liberal and National parties leaders, Susan Lee 3 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:15,000 S1: and David Littleproud even keep their jobs, given the threats 4 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:18,040 S1: to their leadership that continue to play out as this 5 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:21,960 S1: episode goes to air? These are only two of the 6 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,320 S1: political tripwires that are at high risk of being stepped 7 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:29,080 S1: on this week, a period that veteran political analyst Sean 8 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:35,320 S1: Kelly calls absolutely insane. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and you're 9 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,480 S1: listening to Morning Edition from The Age and the Sydney 10 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:44,120 S1: Morning Herald today columnist Sean Kelly on this week's expected 11 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:47,840 S1: chaos and whether it might lead the government to finally 12 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:53,640 S1: enact bold changes in housing and tax reform. It's Tuesday, 13 00:00:53,680 --> 00:01:00,600 S1: February 3rd. Welcome, Sean, to the Morning edition. 14 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:01,800 S2: Thanks so much for having me. 15 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:04,760 S1: Oh my God, quite a week that we are launching into. 16 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,280 S1: So let's just let's just start off with the turmoil 17 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,880 S1: that might possibly roll out in the next days or 18 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:12,679 S1: possibly the next couple of weeks. I mean, there's a 19 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,440 S1: number of quite significant political changes I think, that could 20 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,040 S1: come about this week. Any of them on their own 21 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,039 S1: would be enough to make front page headlines, let alone 22 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,160 S1: all of them together. So tell us, like, what are 23 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,520 S1: the various shifts that we could see this week or 24 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:27,640 S1: the next couple of weeks? 25 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:29,720 S3: Oh, this this is a crazy week. It is an 26 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:34,679 S3: absolutely crazy week to have this much chaos in both 27 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,360 S3: the coalition parties, the liberals and the nationals to potentially 28 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,240 S3: have two leadership spills. Yeah, it's absolutely insane. 29 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:44,679 S4: Our party room has made it very clear we cannot 30 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,320 S4: be part of a shadow ministry under Susan Lee. I'm 31 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,520 S4: hoping to achieve a change of leadership in the National Party, 32 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:52,200 S4: and the. 33 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,600 S5: Liberal proud will remain leader of the nationals following an 34 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,240 S5: unsuccessful spill motion this afternoon. 35 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,000 S6: We fed up with the mass migration and the effects 36 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,000 S6: that it's having on just ordinary Australians out there. 37 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:07,640 S3: And the thing that will actually occupy a greater number 38 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:09,639 S3: of Australians than, than any of the others, I think, 39 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:11,400 S3: is the interest rate rise. So the thing that is 40 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,560 S3: actually out of the hands of politicians, as we're recording 41 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,480 S3: this on Monday morning, we don't know whether that will come. 42 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,960 S3: The reserve Bank will tell us, but that will be 43 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:24,680 S3: a very significant factor, not least because it risks significantly 44 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,800 S3: confusing the government's narrative. Of course, inflation has been coming down. 45 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,240 S3: The government has been keen to take some credit for that. 46 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,480 S3: The coalition will be very keen to blame labor for 47 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,480 S3: any further rises in inflation, and then there will inevitably 48 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,600 S3: be speculation if there is a rate rise, but whether 49 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:45,679 S3: there will be any further rate rises to follow it. Meanwhile, 50 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,120 S3: the coalition are trying to decide whether or not to 51 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,520 S3: get on with rolling their leader. They're partly saying, well, 52 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,000 S3: we shouldn't wait a little because we should actually attack 53 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,359 S3: the government on this interest rate rise. So those two 54 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:01,440 S3: things are interacting. There's a question about whether the coalition 55 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,720 S3: will reunite. And that, of course, then interacts with the 56 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,960 S3: Liberal leadership question, not to mention the nationals leadership question. 57 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,680 S3: And then finally, One Nation has been very, very heavily 58 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:17,040 S3: foreshadowing a huge announcement it was going to be today. 59 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,960 S3: I think it seems to have shifted to Tuesday. At 60 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,160 S3: this point. We have some sense of what that will be, 61 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:24,640 S3: but of course we don't know for sure. 62 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,079 S1: Okay, well let's just walk through them one by one, 63 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:32,960 S1: I guess. I mean, I'm going to ask you to 64 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,520 S1: pull out your crystal ball here. Sorry, Shawn, but with 65 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:39,840 S1: regards to the coalition reuniting or not, what are your 66 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,160 S1: thoughts on whether that might happen? And I guess whether 67 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,200 S1: Susan Lee might face a leadership spill. And if she did, 68 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,040 S1: would she survive it? You know, some have been writing 69 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:49,840 S1: about a ballot next week. 70 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,840 S3: On the question of where the coalition lands. I really 71 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,320 S3: don't know. And I really don't know, because very different 72 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,520 S3: noises are being made by different people and also because 73 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:03,360 S3: the incentives are really misaligned here. I think both the 74 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,560 S3: liberals and the nationals essentially need each other. They essentially 75 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:10,400 S3: need to be in coalition, um, in order to pitch 76 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:12,760 S3: to Australians. So they are parties of government in order 77 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:14,680 S3: to say that they can actually make the changes the 78 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:18,039 S3: voters need, uh, and to be taken seriously. But at 79 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,400 S3: the same time, because both of the leaders have kind 80 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,800 S3: of stood up for their parties and their respective interests. Um, 81 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,200 S3: there's this sense that in backing down to the other 82 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:33,279 S3: party and being too accommodating, that they're potentially weakening themselves. Um, now, 83 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:37,560 S3: that said, um, Susan Lee certainly seems to be holding 84 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,480 S3: out a bit of an olive branch. The rhetoric on 85 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,919 S3: the part of David Littleproud has certainly softened a bit 86 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:48,120 S3: from his earlier stance that the nationals really couldn't reform 87 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,760 S3: with the liberals as long as Sussan Ley was leader. Um, 88 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:53,640 S3: so there are there are tentative steps towards each other, 89 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:55,679 S3: but then at the same time you have senior figures 90 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,960 S3: like Jonno Duniam, who was involved in the events of 91 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,000 S3: last week saying, well, sure, we'd love to join with 92 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:05,840 S3: the nationals if they're prepared to be part of a coherent, uh, opposition, 93 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,640 S3: a coherent coalition. But at the moment they don't seem 94 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,480 S3: ready to do that. So you can see that people 95 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:17,120 S3: within both parties, I think, have really divergent views on this. Um, 96 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,600 S3: now that interacts with the Liberal leadership in an interesting way, 97 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,200 S3: which is essentially that Sussan Ley can't win. And you 98 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,880 S3: can see this from the very beginning of this saga, 99 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:31,640 S3: when the nationals broke away because Sussan Ley said, well, 100 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,120 S3: I am going to accept the resignations of three national 101 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:38,400 S3: frontbenchers who cross the floor and breach of shadow cabinet solidarity. 102 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,480 S3: The liberals said that was the right decision. Even people 103 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,719 S3: who didn't support Sussan Ley said of course she had 104 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,920 S3: to do that. She had to stick to shadow cabinet solidarity. 105 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,880 S3: But at the same time the same people were saying, well, 106 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,920 S3: this means Susan Lee's leadership is over. Uh, so, right decision. 107 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,800 S3: And yet this was the death knell for her. Now 108 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:02,320 S3: that obviously is logically incoherent, but it speaks to the 109 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,000 S3: place that the liberals have got to, which is essentially 110 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,919 S3: the Susan Lee can't win whatever she does. And I 111 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:09,720 S3: think you've seen her along the way. I think there 112 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,240 S3: has been a sense since she took over that a 113 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,560 S3: large section of the Liberal Party were really talking. The 114 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:18,480 S3: conservative part of the Liberal Party was never really going 115 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:22,080 S3: to take her seriously as leader. I think some of 116 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,839 S3: that is about the fact that she's a woman. Um, 117 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,600 S3: and some of it is about the fact that she 118 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:29,880 S3: is a moderate or perceived to be moderate from the, 119 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,800 S3: you know, supported by the moderate faction of the Liberal Party. Uh, 120 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,560 S3: and this this is a part of the Liberal Party 121 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,120 S3: going back away. You can see this when Malcolm Turnbull 122 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,080 S3: was prime minister, uh, in a position of much more 123 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,520 S3: authority than an opposition leader, the conservatives in his party 124 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,440 S3: just didn't trust him. They didn't have the sense that 125 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,320 S3: he was one of them. And for that reason, even 126 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,280 S3: when he did what they wanted, even when he used 127 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,640 S3: the same language that they used, they didn't they didn't 128 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:00,839 S3: take it as sincere or genuine, so they began pushing 129 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,320 S3: to remove him. And really, I think that's been the 130 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,640 S3: state of affairs ever since Susan Lee took the job. 131 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,680 S1: And it's probably a testament, I think, to the absolute disarray, 132 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:11,360 S1: not just of the coalition, of course, but of the 133 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,480 S1: Liberal Party that we saw. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien, just 134 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:19,120 S1: over the weekend, refused to admit that that clandestine, really 135 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:23,559 S1: controversial meeting between Liberal Party senior members of the Liberal 136 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:28,200 S1: Party who were, we all know, discussing who would, you know, 137 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,280 S1: try to, you know, take on Susan Lee for the 138 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:32,760 S1: leadership of the Liberal Party. And he refused on the 139 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,400 S1: insiders program on Sunday to admit that they were talking 140 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,720 S1: about when it's it's it's open knowledge that that's what 141 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:39,560 S1: they were discussing. 142 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,640 S3: This is the point you get to when things are 143 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,800 S3: this bad. You inevitably end up saying black is white, 144 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:50,040 S3: because almost. What else can you say? I saw Susan 145 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,640 S3: Lee saying last week, well, of course we can fill 146 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:57,840 S3: the frontbench entirely from within the Liberal Party Um, because, uh, 147 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:00,760 S3: there's there's a lot of talent. There's so much talent. 148 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,760 S3: And you think, well, the Liberal Party is so small now. 149 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:04,600 S1: Yeah. 150 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:09,720 S3: That that is like, almost definitionally not true. Uh, so, look, 151 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,160 S3: this is part of the terrible position they're in, and 152 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,040 S3: you could see this in, in a poll that came 153 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,200 S3: out this morning. It reflects other recent polls, but the 154 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:21,520 S3: poll in the Financial Review showing that One Nation, uh, 155 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,040 S3: now commands 1 in 4 voters across Australia. I think 156 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:30,440 S3: it is. Meanwhile, fewer than 1 in 5 people support 157 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:34,000 S3: the coalition. If you are if you're in Gen X, um, 158 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,440 S3: or a baby boomer, like if you are within that segment, 159 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:40,280 S3: let's say over 47, um, you are more likely to 160 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,720 S3: support One Nation than any other party at this point. 161 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,280 S3: I mean, these are really stunning figures and really damning 162 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:48,280 S3: for the Liberal Party. 163 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,080 S1: Yeah, I think I was seeing one analyst write that 164 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,800 S1: Pauline Hanson is the most popular political leader in the country. 165 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:56,680 S2: That's right. Where I think her. 166 00:08:56,679 --> 00:09:00,480 S3: Approval numbers overall are now better than than anyone's, including 167 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,040 S3: the Prime Minister's. Now we need to we need to 168 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,320 S3: put a huge caveat around this. I don't think these 169 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:10,200 S3: numbers are likely to be permanent. One nation. Haven't really 170 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:14,080 S3: proved themselves to be a stable party. They've never proved 171 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,520 S3: themselves to be a remotely stable party. People are always 172 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,160 S3: coming and going into one nation, and they haven't proved 173 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,880 S3: themselves to be a party capable of formulating a comprehensive 174 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:26,400 S3: policy platform. But obviously, we're beginning to see defections of 175 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:31,240 S3: people from the coalition. Barnaby Joyce was a really significant factor. 176 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,520 S3: If we do see other people defect this week, they 177 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,280 S3: will add to that sense of momentum around one nation. 178 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,080 S3: And I don't think One Nation will be a very, very, 179 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:43,240 S3: very serious force as long as Pauline Hanson is leader. 180 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,120 S3: But you can see them heading that way. And I 181 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:50,480 S3: saw Tony Barry, a former Liberal strategist, quoted in the 182 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,640 S3: Financial Review, saying, well, look, perhaps there is a cap 183 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,040 S3: on One Nation support. And of course that's true, that 184 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:57,920 S3: there is just a huge group of Australians who will 185 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,679 S3: never say they'll support One Nation. But if a few 186 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:03,920 S3: more people head over to One Nation at this point, 187 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,719 S3: there is a point at which the coalition appears unsalvageable. 188 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:11,720 S1: Okay, now, you said earlier on in the episode that 189 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:16,200 S1: One Nation, you know, had been foreshadowing some great big announcement. 190 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,720 S1: You know, we've been hearing rumblings that Alex Antic, a 191 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,400 S1: senator from South Australia, who was, I think until quite 192 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,920 S1: recently very powerful in the Liberal Party in that state, 193 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,000 S1: that he might be the next defection to One Nation. 194 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,360 S1: So is that this big announcement or is it something else? 195 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:30,400 S1: What are you hearing? 196 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,360 S2: Look, I really don't know. 197 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:36,600 S3: There's been rumours since late last year about the next defection. 198 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,840 S3: People have known there would be another defection. Lots of 199 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,200 S3: names have been tossed around. I hadn't heard those names 200 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:47,959 S3: until now. Cory Bernardi is the other person being mentioned. 201 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,760 S3: Both of those would be really significant. Cory Bernardi, not 202 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,679 S3: because he's a reasonable politician, but because he has a 203 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,120 S3: high profile, um, Alex Antic, because he has, in the 204 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:02,880 S3: last few years been enormously influential within the South Australian 205 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,320 S3: Liberal Party. Uh, so I think they would be not 206 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,280 S3: quite as significant, I think, as James Ashby. Uh, Pauline 207 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:11,760 S3: Hanson's chief of staff has been touting them to be, 208 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:15,040 S3: but pretty significant. And of course, we don't know that 209 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,199 S3: it will end with with those two if those two 210 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:21,040 S3: are in fact, uh, the names that have been rumored. 211 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:33,080 S1: We'll be right back. Okay. Now, I really want to 212 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,280 S1: get into what you've just written about, which I think 213 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,160 S1: is so fascinating. And I think it's, you know, probably 214 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,560 S1: flown under the radar, um, outside of yourself amid all 215 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:45,240 S1: of this, you know, potential chaos. And that's the major 216 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,520 S1: changes that the government may be plotting. So what have 217 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:49,440 S1: you heard? 218 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,720 S3: Yeah, I just think there are. Look, sometimes politics is 219 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,310 S3: about following the breadcrumbs. I think there have been some 220 00:11:56,309 --> 00:12:00,230 S3: interesting breadcrumbs just in the last few days. Coincidentally, I 221 00:12:00,230 --> 00:12:04,070 S3: think coming out at the same time. Uh, ALP national 222 00:12:04,070 --> 00:12:08,429 S3: secretary Paul Erickson, very influential, very close to Anthony Albanese, 223 00:12:08,670 --> 00:12:13,790 S3: also generally, um, fairly discreet in what he says. Um, 224 00:12:13,950 --> 00:12:18,030 S3: said you will see some pretty substantial contributions over the 225 00:12:18,030 --> 00:12:21,070 S3: coming months from the PM and from the treasurer and 226 00:12:21,070 --> 00:12:23,430 S3: the lead up to the budget that will set that out. 227 00:12:23,830 --> 00:12:25,830 S3: He said that in a long profile of him in 228 00:12:25,830 --> 00:12:28,150 S3: the Australian Financial Review, it was right at the end 229 00:12:28,150 --> 00:12:31,310 S3: of that piece, which is an interesting piece. It's worth reading. Um, 230 00:12:31,309 --> 00:12:33,110 S3: and then he said as well that the government has 231 00:12:33,110 --> 00:12:37,990 S3: a real sense that 2026 provides a serious opportunity for reform. Now, 232 00:12:37,990 --> 00:12:41,550 S3: those are both two pretty strong quotes from somebody who 233 00:12:41,550 --> 00:12:45,150 S3: was generally fairly restrained. And then you add them to 234 00:12:45,150 --> 00:12:49,550 S3: the fact that the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, in a separate piece, 235 00:12:49,590 --> 00:12:54,430 S3: said that he was impatient for reform and that housing 236 00:12:54,429 --> 00:12:58,510 S3: was a defining element of the intergenerational challenge, and that 237 00:12:58,510 --> 00:13:00,870 S3: these are, along with a few other things, are the 238 00:13:00,870 --> 00:13:04,150 S3: sorts of lenses through which we view the budget. And 239 00:13:04,150 --> 00:13:07,110 S3: he made similar comments. Um, actually, in another piece that 240 00:13:07,110 --> 00:13:09,030 S3: was published in the monthly, an interview he did with 241 00:13:09,030 --> 00:13:13,470 S3: the Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Um, so obviously 242 00:13:13,710 --> 00:13:18,830 S3: housing intergenerational equality in the mix for the budget. Not 243 00:13:18,830 --> 00:13:22,630 S3: an entire surprise, because these, um, these were the topics 244 00:13:22,630 --> 00:13:26,630 S3: that came out of the economic reform summit in August 245 00:13:26,630 --> 00:13:29,190 S3: last year. But a lot of people have been saying 246 00:13:29,190 --> 00:13:32,830 S3: momentum from that summit seemed to have stalled, that we 247 00:13:32,830 --> 00:13:35,870 S3: haven't really heard much since. There's been a bit of 248 00:13:35,870 --> 00:13:38,510 S3: a sense that perhaps it was a damp squib. Um, 249 00:13:38,510 --> 00:13:40,790 S3: so I think it is really interesting that the treasurer 250 00:13:40,790 --> 00:13:43,670 S3: is bringing those elements up again, but it's happening at 251 00:13:43,670 --> 00:13:46,710 S3: the same time as Paul Erickson is talking about Jim 252 00:13:46,710 --> 00:13:50,030 S3: Chalmers making some substantial contributions in the lead up to 253 00:13:50,070 --> 00:13:53,550 S3: the budget. It's just beginning to sound as though we 254 00:13:53,550 --> 00:13:57,550 S3: might have some important announcements, um, heading our way. And 255 00:13:57,550 --> 00:14:02,670 S3: that's interesting as well, because, uh, Anthony Albanese, in his 256 00:14:02,670 --> 00:14:05,910 S3: first term, did the difficult stuff. In the second year, 257 00:14:06,150 --> 00:14:10,750 S3: he pursued the referendum for the indigenous voice to Parliament, 258 00:14:10,750 --> 00:14:13,310 S3: and he broke his promise on the stage three tax 259 00:14:13,350 --> 00:14:15,709 S3: cuts successfully, I would say, you know, he sold that 260 00:14:15,710 --> 00:14:18,270 S3: to the people. And actually, Jim Chalmers in that piece 261 00:14:18,270 --> 00:14:21,950 S3: with the monthly does refer to the way that Anthony 262 00:14:21,950 --> 00:14:25,670 S3: Albanese sold that broken promise that he got over the 263 00:14:25,670 --> 00:14:29,190 S3: fact that labor had changed its mind because he spoke 264 00:14:29,190 --> 00:14:31,910 S3: to the people rather than down to the people. And 265 00:14:31,910 --> 00:14:35,630 S3: I think that's interesting, because labor in the past has, uh, 266 00:14:35,670 --> 00:14:40,070 S3: ruled out various tax changes, especially around housing. So that 267 00:14:40,070 --> 00:14:44,510 S3: might be a tiny little hint as well. Um, but my, 268 00:14:44,550 --> 00:14:47,390 S3: my overall point is that it wouldn't surprise me at 269 00:14:47,390 --> 00:14:50,590 S3: all because prime ministers get into habits. Um, if labor 270 00:14:50,590 --> 00:14:53,510 S3: again did the tough stuff In the second year of 271 00:14:53,510 --> 00:14:57,030 S3: this term. So this budget coming up could be really interesting. 272 00:14:57,230 --> 00:14:59,630 S1: Okay. I mean, do you have any ideas beyond those 273 00:14:59,630 --> 00:15:02,510 S1: tiny little hints, what you know, these important announcements might 274 00:15:02,510 --> 00:15:04,950 S1: be because we know that this is a government that's 275 00:15:04,950 --> 00:15:09,510 S1: long been criticized, in particular Albanese, for being timid in 276 00:15:09,510 --> 00:15:13,230 S1: his ambition and for failing to undertake major, let's say, 277 00:15:13,270 --> 00:15:17,070 S1: tax reform. So could we see something like major tax 278 00:15:17,070 --> 00:15:20,590 S1: reform or something changes to negative gearing, which has obviously been, 279 00:15:20,630 --> 00:15:24,390 S1: you know, long been wanted but so contentious. You know, 280 00:15:24,430 --> 00:15:26,870 S1: we know that Jim Chalmers, he's just said that he's 281 00:15:26,870 --> 00:15:30,510 S1: impatient for reform. I think he's long been impatient for reform. 282 00:15:30,790 --> 00:15:34,590 S1: So I guess, yeah. What might these important announcements like 283 00:15:34,590 --> 00:15:36,870 S1: what are sort of some of the more obvious candidates 284 00:15:36,870 --> 00:15:38,990 S1: or something that might actually be announced? 285 00:15:39,030 --> 00:15:41,670 S3: Look, great question. It is always important to be a 286 00:15:41,670 --> 00:15:45,550 S3: little bit circumspect around reading these tea leaves and following 287 00:15:45,590 --> 00:15:49,710 S3: these breadcrumbs, because sometimes governments talk big and don't follow through. 288 00:15:50,030 --> 00:15:54,230 S3: I absolutely don't know. It is worth recalling that Peter 289 00:15:54,230 --> 00:15:57,150 S3: Hartcher wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age 290 00:15:57,150 --> 00:16:01,150 S3: last year that Jim Chalmers was interested in reforming negative gearing, 291 00:16:01,390 --> 00:16:03,790 S3: and that, of course, he'd have to convince the Prime 292 00:16:03,790 --> 00:16:08,350 S3: Minister and his cabinet colleagues. Chalmers is always very careful 293 00:16:08,350 --> 00:16:11,270 S3: and has been lately as well, in talking about tax reform, 294 00:16:11,270 --> 00:16:14,590 S3: to say anything will have to have the full support 295 00:16:14,630 --> 00:16:19,750 S3: of cabinet. Um, and he uses similar formulations around tax 296 00:16:19,750 --> 00:16:23,910 S3: reform each time. So there's certainly nothing dramatic being foreshadowed. Um, 297 00:16:23,910 --> 00:16:26,430 S3: but you would have to think negative gearing must at 298 00:16:26,430 --> 00:16:29,630 S3: least be in the mix of considerations. Um, but look, 299 00:16:29,670 --> 00:16:32,310 S3: it might it might be more on the supply side, 300 00:16:32,310 --> 00:16:35,590 S3: which the government has been talking a lot about for 301 00:16:35,590 --> 00:16:37,630 S3: the last couple of years, that is, it might be 302 00:16:37,630 --> 00:16:41,750 S3: more around, um, encouraging the building of homes, which is 303 00:16:41,750 --> 00:16:46,990 S3: something Chalmers mentioned. Um, it might be incentives in that area. Uh, 304 00:16:47,470 --> 00:16:50,830 S3: I certainly think housing is going to be a significant 305 00:16:50,830 --> 00:16:53,350 S3: issue this year and that, um, that is that is 306 00:16:53,350 --> 00:16:55,630 S3: hardly a surprise. But I think it's particularly important right 307 00:16:55,630 --> 00:16:58,590 S3: now because of the rise of One Nation. Um, we 308 00:16:58,590 --> 00:17:02,030 S3: have suddenly have this question around, well, what is driving 309 00:17:02,430 --> 00:17:07,150 S3: anxieties around immigration? And we know from various studies, including 310 00:17:07,150 --> 00:17:11,830 S3: the Scanlon Foundation Social Cohesion report, um, that concerns around 311 00:17:11,830 --> 00:17:18,389 S3: housing affordability and around economic stability, um, economic, uh, health 312 00:17:18,390 --> 00:17:24,030 S3: in the economy, um, feed directly into questions voters have 313 00:17:24,070 --> 00:17:26,590 S3: about immigration. Uh, so I think it would make a 314 00:17:26,590 --> 00:17:30,790 S3: lot of sense for both of the the major parties, 315 00:17:30,830 --> 00:17:33,750 S3: the Liberal Party and the Labour Party to be pursuing housing, 316 00:17:33,750 --> 00:17:36,390 S3: not just, uh, in its own right as a really 317 00:17:36,390 --> 00:17:39,470 S3: significant thing, but as a kind of way to head 318 00:17:39,470 --> 00:17:42,350 S3: off Australians fears of immigration, to head off the rise 319 00:17:42,350 --> 00:17:45,389 S3: of the far right in this country. And while, um, 320 00:17:45,430 --> 00:17:48,150 S3: it is easy to see the rise of one nation 321 00:17:48,150 --> 00:17:51,990 S3: only as a threat to the Liberal Party. It is 322 00:17:51,990 --> 00:17:56,230 S3: important to note that Labor's primary vote remains low in 323 00:17:56,230 --> 00:17:59,350 S3: polling and at the last election, and that labor is 324 00:17:59,350 --> 00:18:02,710 S3: also very vulnerable to having votes peeled off in. 325 00:18:03,710 --> 00:18:05,990 S1: That's so interesting. And, Sean, just to wrap up, I mean, 326 00:18:06,109 --> 00:18:08,629 S1: the budget the federal budget is still a few months away. 327 00:18:08,630 --> 00:18:11,630 S1: So presumably a lot of it would have been if 328 00:18:11,630 --> 00:18:13,750 S1: not decided already, and certainly that it would have been 329 00:18:13,750 --> 00:18:15,790 S1: great headway there. Do you think that in terms of 330 00:18:15,790 --> 00:18:20,830 S1: how bold or not bold the government is with regards to, say, 331 00:18:20,869 --> 00:18:24,070 S1: housing or negative gearing or whatever other major changes that 332 00:18:24,070 --> 00:18:26,109 S1: they might be considering? Do you think any of that 333 00:18:26,109 --> 00:18:29,830 S1: is contingent on, I guess, just how much disarray the 334 00:18:29,830 --> 00:18:33,310 S1: coalition remains in? You know what I mean? Like, obviously 335 00:18:33,510 --> 00:18:37,389 S1: they may reunite on February 9th. They might not. Um, 336 00:18:37,430 --> 00:18:40,070 S1: there's all kinds of leadership questions. Do you think that 337 00:18:40,070 --> 00:18:43,830 S1: the government will be watching just how much chaos and 338 00:18:43,830 --> 00:18:45,950 S1: lack of unity there is there in terms of whether 339 00:18:45,950 --> 00:18:48,310 S1: it sort of gives them the impetus to be bold 340 00:18:48,310 --> 00:18:48,870 S1: or not? 341 00:18:49,350 --> 00:18:51,070 S7: Yeah. Look, I always think that the. 342 00:18:51,070 --> 00:18:54,790 S3: Coalition's chaos really cuts both ways in terms of the 343 00:18:54,790 --> 00:18:57,470 S3: government's ambition. A lot of people will say, well, the 344 00:18:57,470 --> 00:19:00,790 S3: government has a huge majority and the coalition is in chaos. Therefore, 345 00:19:00,790 --> 00:19:03,750 S3: the government has enormous room to do whatever it likes, 346 00:19:03,790 --> 00:19:06,230 S3: you know, to really take the bold steps that it's 347 00:19:06,230 --> 00:19:08,430 S3: hard of heart is perhaps it wants to take. But 348 00:19:08,510 --> 00:19:11,030 S3: but it has so far been a bit cautious about 349 00:19:11,030 --> 00:19:16,190 S3: about taking. But the opposite argument is that governments always 350 00:19:16,190 --> 00:19:19,070 S3: need to be pushed to do things, really that they're 351 00:19:19,109 --> 00:19:24,270 S3: their default mode is risk aversion. And unless you have 352 00:19:24,270 --> 00:19:28,270 S3: an opposition kind of nipping at their heels, um, they're 353 00:19:28,270 --> 00:19:31,630 S3: unlikely to act as strongly as they as they would otherwise. 354 00:19:31,630 --> 00:19:34,550 S3: So I really I really do think that cuts both ways. 355 00:19:36,030 --> 00:19:38,270 S3: I don't think the government's going to be paying an 356 00:19:38,270 --> 00:19:41,670 S3: enormous amount of attention to the coalition, except perhaps after 357 00:19:41,670 --> 00:19:46,070 S3: the budget, to see which measures it can get through. Um, 358 00:19:46,109 --> 00:19:48,830 S3: I think the much more important factor is going to 359 00:19:48,830 --> 00:19:52,710 S3: be this inflation question. It is definitely true that inflation, 360 00:19:52,710 --> 00:19:55,470 S3: the cost of living crisis, got in the way of 361 00:19:55,470 --> 00:19:58,310 S3: labor pursuing more ambitious reforms in its first term. And 362 00:19:58,310 --> 00:20:02,950 S3: that's a legitimate political decision, I think. And if inflation 363 00:20:02,950 --> 00:20:05,630 S3: really does start heading up again, that could be seen 364 00:20:05,630 --> 00:20:07,830 S3: as a barrier. But at some point labor will have 365 00:20:07,830 --> 00:20:10,990 S3: to ask itself. Then there is always something. There's always 366 00:20:10,990 --> 00:20:13,430 S3: some reason not to do these things. Are we just 367 00:20:13,430 --> 00:20:15,950 S3: going to have to, you know, close our eyes and jump? 368 00:20:19,510 --> 00:20:22,710 S1: Oh, wow. Such a fascinating space to watch. Well, always 369 00:20:22,710 --> 00:20:26,470 S1: appreciate your commentary. So thank you so much for your time. 370 00:20:26,470 --> 00:20:27,430 S8: Thank you for having me. 371 00:20:38,750 --> 00:20:42,670 S1: In other news, today Qantas has launched expanded premium economy 372 00:20:42,710 --> 00:20:45,990 S1: seating on domestic flights, which will offer customers paying more 373 00:20:45,990 --> 00:20:49,870 S1: for their flights reserved overhead baggage space, ensuring they get 374 00:20:49,869 --> 00:20:53,790 S1: first dibs on those coveted bins. New data from the 375 00:20:53,790 --> 00:20:57,310 S1: Australian Electoral Commission shows that some of Australia's biggest political 376 00:20:57,310 --> 00:21:01,510 S1: donors last year chose to pour their millions into minor parties, 377 00:21:01,510 --> 00:21:06,350 S1: independents or third party campaign outfits, including Clive Palmer, who 378 00:21:06,350 --> 00:21:11,110 S1: gave about $53 million to The Trumpet of Patriots, and 379 00:21:11,109 --> 00:21:14,030 S1: a former sunrise producer who is suing channel seven for 380 00:21:14,030 --> 00:21:17,590 S1: compensation after he suffered serious injuries from falling out of 381 00:21:17,590 --> 00:21:21,630 S1: his wheelchair, has been accused of misogynistic behaviour while at 382 00:21:21,630 --> 00:21:28,710 S1: the network. Today's episode was produced by Julia Carcasole. Our 383 00:21:28,710 --> 00:21:32,830 S1: executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen 384 00:21:32,830 --> 00:21:37,550 S1: by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, 385 00:21:37,790 --> 00:21:40,430 S1: follow the Morning Edition and leave a review for us 386 00:21:40,470 --> 00:21:43,790 S1: on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.