WEBVTT - The Week In Canberra with Dennis Shanahan

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister the Labor Party Central Politics with Dennis Shanahan,

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<v Speaker 1>National Editor of the Australian newspaper Dennis Shanahan, how are you,

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<v Speaker 1>my friend?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm fine, Thank you, Luke. And I can tell you

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<v Speaker 2>it's sunny that I can see the snow on the mountains.

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<v Speaker 1>Ooh ooh, there you are, there, you are. As Albo

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<v Speaker 1>makes his first post election trip to North America, a

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<v Speaker 1>US and Canada, the unfolding war between Israel and Iran

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<v Speaker 1>is overshadowed and complicated Australia's position on both defense spending

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<v Speaker 1>and orcas and BABS, even our recognition of Palestine. This

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<v Speaker 1>is fascinating from a commentator's point of view. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you make of it all?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Look, the trip to the US to attend the

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<v Speaker 2>G seven was going to be a big moment for

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<v Speaker 2>Anthony Albert. He was scheduled or were hoping to meet

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump face to face for the first time, and

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<v Speaker 2>this was going to be the big post election trip.

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<v Speaker 2>It was going to be about trades and tariffs and

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<v Speaker 2>we had all the arguments lined up. Unfortunately, the Israeli

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<v Speaker 2>attack on Iran and the response against what is now

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<v Speaker 2>an unfolding war missiles, drones and planes. Has actually changed

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<v Speaker 2>his agenda completely for the G seven and for the

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<v Speaker 2>President of the United States. What is now going to

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<v Speaker 2>be top of his agenda is the fact that the

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<v Speaker 2>US has been asking that Australia lift its defense spending

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<v Speaker 2>to three point five percent of GDP repeatedly said that

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<v Speaker 2>Anthony Alpinezi has said that he could not agree to

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<v Speaker 2>a number, hasn't agreed to your numbers. Is rather he'd

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<v Speaker 2>look at how we spent the money so that we've

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<v Speaker 2>got a better result. But added to that was the

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<v Speaker 2>announcement this week or the revelation this week that the

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<v Speaker 2>US is reviewing the UCUS Nuclear Submarine Agreement and what

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<v Speaker 2>they are saying is it has to actually amount to

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<v Speaker 2>being in America's interest first and what this could physically mean.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is looking at the problem, the long term

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<v Speaker 2>problem that can the US actually produce enough nuclear submarines

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<v Speaker 2>for its own use and in addition to giving them

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<v Speaker 2>to Australia selling them to Australia. So this is a

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<v Speaker 2>really major problem for Australia wherein this is our biggest,

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<v Speaker 2>biggest investment defense ever. And now the US is saying

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to have a second look at this. So

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<v Speaker 2>the agenda for the Prime Minister if he does get

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<v Speaker 2>to meet a President Trump, and given the war in

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<v Speaker 2>Israel and Iran, the problems in Los Angeles, the Prime

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<v Speaker 2>the President's or indicated is cutting short his time at

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<v Speaker 2>the G seven in Canada. And so there's already a

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<v Speaker 2>suggestion that the Prime Minister may not even be.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you know what made this doesn't pass a

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<v Speaker 1>test for me. There's JD Vance and so many others,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is this is a huge issue for Australia,

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<v Speaker 1>but not just trade but UCAS and our own position

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<v Speaker 1>on defense spending. Now, Abbi likes to play tough man

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<v Speaker 1>and say we won't be dictated to about what we

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<v Speaker 1>should or shouldn't spend. We're bloodgers, We're not fair. They

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<v Speaker 1>can in this space. We rely on the American relationship

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<v Speaker 1>dating back to WW two that if things get really tough,

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<v Speaker 1>because if Americas said, you know what, this is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be too hard and too expensive for us, then

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<v Speaker 1>you know we're up for grads. And I just think

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<v Speaker 1>it's so important that someone like the Prime Minister Strata

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<v Speaker 1>should say, listen, this relationship means a lot. I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>over there and I'm talking to someone and I'm letting

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<v Speaker 1>the Americans know that this means a lot, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>in the room with whoever is available, and i want

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<v Speaker 1>to known that this means a lot. He's not fair income.

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<v Speaker 2>It's interesting you say that because previously, at the Pope's

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<v Speaker 2>inauguration in Rome, the Prime Minister said he wasn't able

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<v Speaker 2>to have a meeting with I'm sorry. At the Pope's

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<v Speaker 2>funeral in Rome, the Prime ministers said he hadn't sought

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<v Speaker 2>a meeting with Vice President Javid Vance because he was

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<v Speaker 2>the leader of the nation. He only met with the

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<v Speaker 2>leader of the nation. And this is a point though,

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<v Speaker 2>and the US's complaining. The Defense Secretary Hess has made

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<v Speaker 2>this point. He has said sorely the Allies, Australia included,

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<v Speaker 2>can't care more about their own defense than we do.

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<v Speaker 2>And this goes back for decade centuries when at the

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<v Speaker 2>First World War Australia supplied money directly to the British

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<v Speaker 2>for their navy. There were public donations from Australians to

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<v Speaker 2>go directly to the British Navy so that they could

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<v Speaker 2>help defend Australia because we couldn't do it ourselves. We've

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<v Speaker 2>done it since with the US the World War II

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<v Speaker 2>and beyond, and yet we can't send a message. And

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<v Speaker 2>one of the complaints from the US again about Antony

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<v Speaker 2>Alpins is that he will not say explicitly why he

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<v Speaker 2>is actually investing in Orcus. We all know it's about

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<v Speaker 2>China and the threat of China presents in the region

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<v Speaker 2>and the world, and Antony Orphanegi will not say it

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<v Speaker 2>because he doesn't want to get China offside.

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<v Speaker 3>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a difficult position to be in. But one of

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<v Speaker 2>the things the US is saying is simply tell the

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<v Speaker 2>Australian people because what we're happening now is a pushback.

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<v Speaker 2>MPs are starting to say we should spend this money.

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<v Speaker 2>Independent MPs, we shouldn't spend this money. There is an

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<v Speaker 2>opposition within the Labor Party and what we could actually

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<v Speaker 2>see if there is a failure from the Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 2>and the government to actually go out and really strongly

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<v Speaker 2>sell Orcus and the importance of UCUS and the reason

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<v Speaker 2>for the nuclear submarines, then the public will will shift

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<v Speaker 2>and the government may give way that you're dead right.

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<v Speaker 2>There is a need for a real prosecution of the

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<v Speaker 2>case publicly and politically for August and we need to

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<v Speaker 2>have it from the top leadership.

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<v Speaker 1>Brilliant. Couldn't agree more right, I will take a break

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<v Speaker 1>back with more of Dennis in Justice. It's accorded a

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<v Speaker 1>ten hour regular weekly chat with Dennis Shanahan from the

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<v Speaker 1>OHS the National Editor. Now, Palestine Mate Palestine, Penny Wang's

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<v Speaker 1>hard stand on recognizing Palestine. How does that go down

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<v Speaker 1>in America? Do you think is this another problem that

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<v Speaker 1>we'll have with Trump?

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<v Speaker 2>It certainly is, and it's the timing. It couldn't be worse.

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<v Speaker 2>This week Penny Wong came out with a very hard line,

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<v Speaker 2>saying Australia had joined literally with Canada and Norway to

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<v Speaker 2>say that we had decided that a recognition of Palestine

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<v Speaker 2>depart state. It had to be part of the peace

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<v Speaker 2>process for a two state settlement in the Middle East. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>she also at a press conference makes some very strong

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<v Speaker 2>remarks about Israel and Palestine. Now, this was all before

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<v Speaker 2>Israel launched and attack on Iran and to destroy Iran's

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<v Speaker 2>ability to create a nuclear bomb, which even the UN

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<v Speaker 2>has said was getting close, and that the a Iran

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<v Speaker 2>was in breach of the international non Peripheration non proliferation

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<v Speaker 2>treating now Penny Wong is a very strong supporter of

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<v Speaker 2>non proliferation as his Australia. And yet at the very

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<v Speaker 2>time we were saying Israel was doing the wrong thing,

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<v Speaker 2>the US was saying they were standing by Israel on

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<v Speaker 2>this issue. They didn't support the demand for the recognition

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<v Speaker 2>of Palestine. So we were being completely separate on this

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<v Speaker 2>issue to the US. And then on the way to

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<v Speaker 2>Seattle and Canada, the Prime Minister stopped in Fiji and

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<v Speaker 2>had to actively say.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, we saw we were aware or are aware of

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<v Speaker 3>what the risk of an Iran nuclear bomb would have

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<v Speaker 3>on peace for the world.

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<v Speaker 2>So the Prime Minister yesterday said yes, we recognize Australia

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<v Speaker 2>recognize the danger of what's happening. He has been very careful.

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<v Speaker 2>It was a very carefully controlled two question doorstop, not

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<v Speaker 2>even a press conference in Fiji, so he has been

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<v Speaker 2>very careful what he said. But what he was saying

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<v Speaker 2>was two days after the Foreign Minister had said we

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<v Speaker 2>were taking a very hard line against Israel, opposite to

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<v Speaker 2>the US. He was then the Prime Minister was then saying, yes,

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<v Speaker 2>we can see the problem with Iran having a nuclear bomb.

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<v Speaker 2>We can see why Israel has done what it has,

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<v Speaker 2>and that the US was while it didn't partake in

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<v Speaker 2>the attacks or provide assistance, it did know they were coming.

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<v Speaker 2>So once again Australia has been caught out here on

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<v Speaker 2>a policy very different to the US when the strategic

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<v Speaker 2>circumstances literally changed overnight, and we are now in a

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<v Speaker 2>position where Donald Trump supporting Israel, the rest of the

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<v Speaker 2>world is supporting Israel on the attacks on Iran. We've

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<v Speaker 2>seen comments coming out of Germany saying, yes, they knew

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<v Speaker 2>exactly what they were doing and they had to do it.

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<v Speaker 2>There is a general feeling no one, including the UN

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<v Speaker 2>or the International Energy Agreement, want anything to do with

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<v Speaker 2>Iran having a nuclear bomb. Everyone agreed it was very close,

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<v Speaker 2>and so our policy position, which is perfectly perfectly entitled

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<v Speaker 2>to take the timing of it, couldn't be worse as

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<v Speaker 2>far as our relations with the US concern.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I've got about ninety seconds here. How significant is

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<v Speaker 1>it that a significant labor figure like Bill Keilty has

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<v Speaker 1>declared this tax on unrealized capital gains in super bad policy?

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<v Speaker 1>It is significant, isn't it?

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<v Speaker 2>It is very significant, and it is bad policy. I

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<v Speaker 2>think Bill Kelty along with Paul Keating, who hasn't yet

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<v Speaker 2>said anything publicly about the superannuation tax, that is, the

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<v Speaker 2>taxing of unrealized paperal gains and the non indexation of

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<v Speaker 2>the threshold, the three million dollars threshold. These are principles

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<v Speaker 2>which are bad policy. They will spread throughout the other

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<v Speaker 2>areas of tax and they undermined. This is Bill Kelton's point,

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<v Speaker 2>one of the fathers of labor superanulation scheme, says it

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<v Speaker 2>will undermine superanulation. These are very significant points from one

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<v Speaker 2>of the grandfathers of the ALP and I think that

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<v Speaker 2>what we're seeing is more and more opposition, more and

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<v Speaker 2>more isolation of gin charmers on this and I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>be surprised in the next few months to see a

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<v Speaker 2>bit of a shift in the government away from unrealized

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<v Speaker 2>capital gains tax.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg di Chad Dennis have a terrific weekend.

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<v Speaker 2>Cheers mate,