Speaker 1: Prime Minister the Labor Party Central Politics with Dennis Shanahan,
Speaker 1: National Editor of the Australian newspaper Dennis Shanahan, how are you,
Speaker 1: my friend?
Speaker 2: I'm fine, Thank you, Luke. And I can tell you
Speaker 2: it's sunny that I can see the snow on the mountains.
Speaker 1: Ooh ooh, there you are, there, you are. As Albo
Speaker 1: makes his first post election trip to North America, a
Speaker 1: US and Canada, the unfolding war between Israel and Iran
Speaker 1: is overshadowed and complicated Australia's position on both defense spending
Speaker 1: and orcas and BABS, even our recognition of Palestine. This
Speaker 1: is fascinating from a commentator's point of view. What do
Speaker 1: you make of it all?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, the trip to the US to attend the
Speaker 2: G seven was going to be a big moment for
Speaker 2: Anthony Albert. He was scheduled or were hoping to meet
Speaker 2: Donald Trump face to face for the first time, and
Speaker 2: this was going to be the big post election trip.
Speaker 2: It was going to be about trades and tariffs and
Speaker 2: we had all the arguments lined up. Unfortunately, the Israeli
Speaker 2: attack on Iran and the response against what is now
Speaker 2: an unfolding war missiles, drones and planes. Has actually changed
Speaker 2: his agenda completely for the G seven and for the
Speaker 2: President of the United States. What is now going to
Speaker 2: be top of his agenda is the fact that the
Speaker 2: US has been asking that Australia lift its defense spending
Speaker 2: to three point five percent of GDP repeatedly said that
Speaker 2: Anthony Alpinezi has said that he could not agree to
Speaker 2: a number, hasn't agreed to your numbers. Is rather he'd
Speaker 2: look at how we spent the money so that we've
Speaker 2: got a better result. But added to that was the
Speaker 2: announcement this week or the revelation this week that the
Speaker 2: US is reviewing the UCUS Nuclear Submarine Agreement and what
Speaker 2: they are saying is it has to actually amount to
Speaker 2: being in America's interest first and what this could physically mean.
Speaker 2: And this is looking at the problem, the long term
Speaker 2: problem that can the US actually produce enough nuclear submarines
Speaker 2: for its own use and in addition to giving them
Speaker 2: to Australia selling them to Australia. So this is a
Speaker 2: really major problem for Australia wherein this is our biggest,
Speaker 2: biggest investment defense ever. And now the US is saying
Speaker 2: we're going to have a second look at this. So
Speaker 2: the agenda for the Prime Minister if he does get
Speaker 2: to meet a President Trump, and given the war in
Speaker 2: Israel and Iran, the problems in Los Angeles, the Prime
Speaker 2: the President's or indicated is cutting short his time at
Speaker 2: the G seven in Canada. And so there's already a
Speaker 2: suggestion that the Prime Minister may not even be.
Speaker 1: You know, you know what made this doesn't pass a
Speaker 1: test for me. There's JD Vance and so many others,
Speaker 1: and this is this is a huge issue for Australia,
Speaker 1: but not just trade but UCAS and our own position
Speaker 1: on defense spending. Now, Abbi likes to play tough man
Speaker 1: and say we won't be dictated to about what we
Speaker 1: should or shouldn't spend. We're bloodgers, We're not fair. They
Speaker 1: can in this space. We rely on the American relationship
Speaker 1: dating back to WW two that if things get really tough,
Speaker 1: because if Americas said, you know what, this is going
Speaker 1: to be too hard and too expensive for us, then
Speaker 1: you know we're up for grads. And I just think
Speaker 1: it's so important that someone like the Prime Minister Strata
Speaker 1: should say, listen, this relationship means a lot. I'm going
Speaker 1: over there and I'm talking to someone and I'm letting
Speaker 1: the Americans know that this means a lot, and I'm
Speaker 1: in the room with whoever is available, and i want
Speaker 1: to known that this means a lot. He's not fair income.
Speaker 2: It's interesting you say that because previously, at the Pope's
Speaker 2: inauguration in Rome, the Prime Minister said he wasn't able
Speaker 2: to have a meeting with I'm sorry. At the Pope's
Speaker 2: funeral in Rome, the Prime ministers said he hadn't sought
Speaker 2: a meeting with Vice President Javid Vance because he was
Speaker 2: the leader of the nation. He only met with the
Speaker 2: leader of the nation. And this is a point though,
Speaker 2: and the US's complaining. The Defense Secretary Hess has made
Speaker 2: this point. He has said sorely the Allies, Australia included,
Speaker 2: can't care more about their own defense than we do.
Speaker 2: And this goes back for decade centuries when at the
Speaker 2: First World War Australia supplied money directly to the British
Speaker 2: for their navy. There were public donations from Australians to
Speaker 2: go directly to the British Navy so that they could
Speaker 2: help defend Australia because we couldn't do it ourselves. We've
Speaker 2: done it since with the US the World War II
Speaker 2: and beyond, and yet we can't send a message. And
Speaker 2: one of the complaints from the US again about Antony
Speaker 2: Alpins is that he will not say explicitly why he
Speaker 2: is actually investing in Orcus. We all know it's about
Speaker 2: China and the threat of China presents in the region
Speaker 2: and the world, and Antony Orphanegi will not say it
Speaker 2: because he doesn't want to get China offside.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: It's a difficult position to be in. But one of
Speaker 2: the things the US is saying is simply tell the
Speaker 2: Australian people because what we're happening now is a pushback.
Speaker 2: MPs are starting to say we should spend this money.
Speaker 2: Independent MPs, we shouldn't spend this money. There is an
Speaker 2: opposition within the Labor Party and what we could actually
Speaker 2: see if there is a failure from the Prime Minister
Speaker 2: and the government to actually go out and really strongly
Speaker 2: sell Orcus and the importance of UCUS and the reason
Speaker 2: for the nuclear submarines, then the public will will shift
Speaker 2: and the government may give way that you're dead right.
Speaker 2: There is a need for a real prosecution of the
Speaker 2: case publicly and politically for August and we need to
Speaker 2: have it from the top leadership.
Speaker 1: Brilliant. Couldn't agree more right, I will take a break
Speaker 1: back with more of Dennis in Justice. It's accorded a
Speaker 1: ten hour regular weekly chat with Dennis Shanahan from the
Speaker 1: OHS the National Editor. Now, Palestine Mate Palestine, Penny Wang's
Speaker 1: hard stand on recognizing Palestine. How does that go down
Speaker 1: in America? Do you think is this another problem that
Speaker 1: we'll have with Trump?
Speaker 2: It certainly is, and it's the timing. It couldn't be worse.
Speaker 2: This week Penny Wong came out with a very hard line,
Speaker 2: saying Australia had joined literally with Canada and Norway to
Speaker 2: say that we had decided that a recognition of Palestine
Speaker 2: depart state. It had to be part of the peace
Speaker 2: process for a two state settlement in the Middle East. Now,
Speaker 2: she also at a press conference makes some very strong
Speaker 2: remarks about Israel and Palestine. Now, this was all before
Speaker 2: Israel launched and attack on Iran and to destroy Iran's
Speaker 2: ability to create a nuclear bomb, which even the UN
Speaker 2: has said was getting close, and that the a Iran
Speaker 2: was in breach of the international non Peripheration non proliferation
Speaker 2: treating now Penny Wong is a very strong supporter of
Speaker 2: non proliferation as his Australia. And yet at the very
Speaker 2: time we were saying Israel was doing the wrong thing,
Speaker 2: the US was saying they were standing by Israel on
Speaker 2: this issue. They didn't support the demand for the recognition
Speaker 2: of Palestine. So we were being completely separate on this
Speaker 2: issue to the US. And then on the way to
Speaker 2: Seattle and Canada, the Prime Minister stopped in Fiji and
Speaker 2: had to actively say.
Speaker 3: Yes, we saw we were aware or are aware of
Speaker 3: what the risk of an Iran nuclear bomb would have
Speaker 3: on peace for the world.
Speaker 2: So the Prime Minister yesterday said yes, we recognize Australia
Speaker 2: recognize the danger of what's happening. He has been very careful.
Speaker 2: It was a very carefully controlled two question doorstop, not
Speaker 2: even a press conference in Fiji, so he has been
Speaker 2: very careful what he said. But what he was saying
Speaker 2: was two days after the Foreign Minister had said we
Speaker 2: were taking a very hard line against Israel, opposite to
Speaker 2: the US. He was then the Prime Minister was then saying, yes,
Speaker 2: we can see the problem with Iran having a nuclear bomb.
Speaker 2: We can see why Israel has done what it has,
Speaker 2: and that the US was while it didn't partake in
Speaker 2: the attacks or provide assistance, it did know they were coming.
Speaker 2: So once again Australia has been caught out here on
Speaker 2: a policy very different to the US when the strategic
Speaker 2: circumstances literally changed overnight, and we are now in a
Speaker 2: position where Donald Trump supporting Israel, the rest of the
Speaker 2: world is supporting Israel on the attacks on Iran. We've
Speaker 2: seen comments coming out of Germany saying, yes, they knew
Speaker 2: exactly what they were doing and they had to do it.
Speaker 2: There is a general feeling no one, including the UN
Speaker 2: or the International Energy Agreement, want anything to do with
Speaker 2: Iran having a nuclear bomb. Everyone agreed it was very close,
Speaker 2: and so our policy position, which is perfectly perfectly entitled
Speaker 2: to take the timing of it, couldn't be worse as
Speaker 2: far as our relations with the US concern.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got about ninety seconds here. How significant is
Speaker 1: it that a significant labor figure like Bill Keilty has
Speaker 1: declared this tax on unrealized capital gains in super bad policy?
Speaker 1: It is significant, isn't it?
Speaker 2: It is very significant, and it is bad policy. I
Speaker 2: think Bill Kelty along with Paul Keating, who hasn't yet
Speaker 2: said anything publicly about the superannuation tax, that is, the
Speaker 2: taxing of unrealized paperal gains and the non indexation of
Speaker 2: the threshold, the three million dollars threshold. These are principles
Speaker 2: which are bad policy. They will spread throughout the other
Speaker 2: areas of tax and they undermined. This is Bill Kelton's point,
Speaker 2: one of the fathers of labor superanulation scheme, says it
Speaker 2: will undermine superanulation. These are very significant points from one
Speaker 2: of the grandfathers of the ALP and I think that
Speaker 2: what we're seeing is more and more opposition, more and
Speaker 2: more isolation of gin charmers on this and I wouldn't
Speaker 2: be surprised in the next few months to see a
Speaker 2: bit of a shift in the government away from unrealized
Speaker 2: capital gains tax.
Speaker 1: Greg di Chad Dennis have a terrific weekend.
Speaker 2: Cheers mate,