1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:05,840 S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to Inside Politics from 2 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,560 S1: The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Today we are 3 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:11,400 S1: joined by podcast favourite Shane Reisch, who's going to talk 4 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:14,280 S1: about the economy and how the rubber really is hitting 5 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:17,079 S1: the road in terms of the government's economic narrative. And 6 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:18,880 S1: later we're going to talk about the security threat to 7 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,120 S1: the Prime Minister at the Lodge in Canberra and what 8 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,160 S1: that tells us about social cohesion. So welcome chief economics 9 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,920 S1: correspondent Shane Reisch, who joins us from Canberra. And of course, 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,120 S1: as ever, our chief political correspondent Paul Chuckle. And for 11 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,960 S1: those of you who can't see them and who are listening, 12 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,800 S1: they're sort of snuggled together very sweetly in the Canberra studio. 13 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:39,120 S2: I just want to point out, Paul, that I got 14 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:42,599 S2: called Podcast Favourite. You didn't. So we'll just keep that 15 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:43,960 S2: in mind for the rest of the show. 16 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:46,760 S3: Way too close for comfort in this little, little studio 17 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:47,320 S3: we're in. 18 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,559 S1: Paul is sort of furniture. I take him completely for granted. 19 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:51,400 S3: That's right. 20 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,960 S2: I'm the special guest. You just remember that. 21 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,520 S1: Shane, on this podcast. If it bleeds, it leads. So 22 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,720 S1: let's start with the bad news about the economy. This 23 00:01:00,790 --> 00:01:03,470 S1: week we had some not so great inflation figures out. 24 00:01:03,710 --> 00:01:07,069 S1: And there's also reports which struck doom into my heart 25 00:01:07,069 --> 00:01:09,470 S1: that there might be an interest rate rise right before 26 00:01:09,510 --> 00:01:13,069 S1: the government hands down its federal budget in May. What 27 00:01:13,069 --> 00:01:15,350 S1: is happening in the economy, if it's possible to summarize, 28 00:01:15,350 --> 00:01:18,550 S1: and how is Treasurer Jim Chalmers spinning the situation? 29 00:01:19,550 --> 00:01:21,990 S2: Well, we can start with the spin first, which is 30 00:01:21,990 --> 00:01:25,029 S2: it's not my fault, it's what's going on. The private 31 00:01:25,030 --> 00:01:28,470 S2: sector has certainly lifted and certainly lifted in the second 32 00:01:28,470 --> 00:01:32,030 S2: half of last year. We can see that from AI 33 00:01:32,110 --> 00:01:36,310 S2: to household consumption. Yes, our listeners, our listeners out there 34 00:01:36,350 --> 00:01:39,750 S2: are contributing to inflation, despite what some people might say. 35 00:01:39,790 --> 00:01:42,350 S2: They are spending, they have money and they are spending. 36 00:01:42,750 --> 00:01:45,430 S2: You can actually see that. Like this week we saw 37 00:01:45,470 --> 00:01:50,990 S2: Qantas record another one point. I think about $1.5 billion profit. 38 00:01:50,990 --> 00:01:54,510 S2: People are spending money flying around for instance. You can 39 00:01:54,510 --> 00:01:58,230 S2: see it in consumption stuff. So Chalmers argument is look, 40 00:01:58,270 --> 00:02:02,300 S2: it's really what's going on in the private sector, however, 41 00:02:02,300 --> 00:02:05,180 S2: there is a fair whack of government spending because the 42 00:02:05,180 --> 00:02:07,940 S2: government is running a deficit, so there's extra money coming 43 00:02:07,940 --> 00:02:10,340 S2: in from the from the government side. There's also the 44 00:02:10,340 --> 00:02:13,980 S2: extra spending by the states. In Sydney, for instance. The 45 00:02:13,980 --> 00:02:17,020 S2: metro continues on. You've still got a lot of work 46 00:02:17,020 --> 00:02:21,100 S2: going on in Brisbane and in Perth and in Melbourne, 47 00:02:21,500 --> 00:02:25,300 S2: plus just a general assistance. So that is what's going on. 48 00:02:25,340 --> 00:02:28,180 S2: Reserve Bank will look at the inflation figures we got 49 00:02:28,180 --> 00:02:31,060 S2: this week. They are monthly. So they this is still new. 50 00:02:31,460 --> 00:02:33,180 S2: There's a lot of noise still in them. And the 51 00:02:33,180 --> 00:02:37,260 S2: reserve Bank has said repeatedly we don't really trust the 52 00:02:37,260 --> 00:02:41,460 S2: monthly figures quite yet. So the monthly figure shows right. 53 00:02:41,460 --> 00:02:43,300 S2: There was a big there was a lift in prices 54 00:02:43,300 --> 00:02:47,260 S2: in January, whether it's seasonal or not. That's one of 55 00:02:47,260 --> 00:02:49,740 S2: the problems, whether this is just what happens at the 56 00:02:49,740 --> 00:02:51,260 S2: start of the year, but over. 57 00:02:51,620 --> 00:02:53,780 S1: Sorry to interrupt, but over the over the course of 58 00:02:53,780 --> 00:02:56,940 S1: the year, the figure is unchanged at 3.8%. But it's 59 00:02:56,940 --> 00:02:58,859 S1: just that month to month. It ticked up a little bit. 60 00:02:59,300 --> 00:03:02,660 S2: Yeah that's right. But there was also some revisions back 61 00:03:02,660 --> 00:03:05,580 S2: through the last 12 months. So it always makes it problematic. 62 00:03:06,060 --> 00:03:10,500 S2: Clearly there's like for instance, the price of kids shoes 63 00:03:10,540 --> 00:03:14,820 S2: went through the roof in January, which seems a bit weird. 64 00:03:15,220 --> 00:03:18,540 S2: And you go, yep, kid shoes went up. Item it's 65 00:03:18,540 --> 00:03:21,660 S2: not a significant item, but it's part of it. And 66 00:03:21,700 --> 00:03:25,100 S2: like the price of red meat. Red meat, beef prices 67 00:03:25,100 --> 00:03:28,300 S2: are running at around 1,011%. That is not because you, 68 00:03:28,340 --> 00:03:30,980 S2: me and Paul are racing out for a steak every 69 00:03:30,980 --> 00:03:34,700 S2: second night. It's because of Donald Trump. The pull from 70 00:03:34,700 --> 00:03:38,420 S2: the US for for red meat is so strong at 71 00:03:38,420 --> 00:03:43,020 S2: the moment. And anyone who's driven into the hinterlands, like 72 00:03:43,060 --> 00:03:45,619 S2: anyone who's driven between Sydney and Melbourne over the last 73 00:03:45,660 --> 00:03:47,780 S2: 3 or 4 months, will have gone, oh my goodness, 74 00:03:47,780 --> 00:03:51,260 S2: it's a bit dry out there. Yeah, we can see that. 75 00:03:51,540 --> 00:03:54,260 S2: You can see there's some drought conditions developing and drought 76 00:03:54,260 --> 00:03:58,220 S2: conditions are bad news in terms of inflation. So that's 77 00:03:58,220 --> 00:03:58,980 S2: what's going on. 78 00:03:59,020 --> 00:04:00,930 S1: Maybe we need to have a beef reserve. Like there's 79 00:04:00,930 --> 00:04:03,850 S1: a gas reserve to keep some Australian beef in Australia. 80 00:04:03,850 --> 00:04:05,810 S2: But I think you should. You should put some cows 81 00:04:05,810 --> 00:04:07,970 S2: out the back of your place in Sydney. I think 82 00:04:08,330 --> 00:04:09,130 S2: they'd love it there. 83 00:04:09,730 --> 00:04:13,650 S3: One nation's next policy drawing in Gina Rinehart's new cattle farm. 84 00:04:14,170 --> 00:04:17,810 S1: I'm all for it, Paul. I'm sort of interested. There's 85 00:04:17,850 --> 00:04:20,849 S1: the the statistics which which show a sort of mixed picture. 86 00:04:20,850 --> 00:04:24,290 S1: And then there's what people actually feel. And there's so 87 00:04:24,290 --> 00:04:26,969 S1: many things that feed into the perception people have about 88 00:04:26,970 --> 00:04:29,970 S1: how expensive their lives are, how difficult it is to 89 00:04:30,010 --> 00:04:33,250 S1: manage a family budget. What is the sort of, you know, 90 00:04:33,290 --> 00:04:36,210 S1: the line that the government's sort of walking here because 91 00:04:36,250 --> 00:04:39,729 S1: on some assessments, wages have actually sort of gone up 92 00:04:39,730 --> 00:04:42,810 S1: since the pandemic. The RBA governor, Michele Bullock, told us 93 00:04:42,810 --> 00:04:46,170 S1: that in estimates recently. But it would be a silly 94 00:04:46,170 --> 00:04:51,570 S1: politician who'd actually sort of say to Australian householders, like, 95 00:04:51,610 --> 00:04:53,729 S1: you've actually got it pretty good. Stop complaining. 96 00:04:54,490 --> 00:04:56,450 S3: Yeah, that would be a very unwise thing for any 97 00:04:56,450 --> 00:04:59,409 S3: government to say. And you're right, this government has a 98 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,200 S3: strong argument to say that they've been the first government 99 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,480 S3: in a while that's got real wages going a little bit. 100 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:08,440 S3: They've had two straight years before last week's figures, which 101 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,000 S3: had real wages growth rising not by a huge amount, 102 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:16,280 S3: but rising, which is an objectively good thing, and bucking 103 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:19,520 S3: the trend of a lot of similar nations. But overall, 104 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:23,239 S3: the story really of the last of recent history, really 105 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:27,360 S3: since the GFC, is that living standards overall have been 106 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,480 S3: pretty flat and people have not got much richer. The 107 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,640 S3: middle class is finding it difficult to get by. There 108 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,000 S3: is a growing kind of working. Poor people are still 109 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,000 S3: getting richer at the top end, but there is a 110 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,800 S3: sense of dissatisfaction across the economy, and the productivity problem 111 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,920 S3: means that the country is not able to grow at 112 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,040 S3: the same rate as it used to, without inflation running hot. 113 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,560 S3: That's why we've seen persistent inflation and grocery prices and 114 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,680 S3: other things remaining higher for longer than we expected, because 115 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:58,800 S3: just when the private sector got going, as Shane mentioned, 116 00:05:59,070 --> 00:06:02,950 S3: Inflation ticked up again, which meant that the rate cuts 117 00:06:02,950 --> 00:06:05,830 S3: we saw last year, which we thought would persist, are 118 00:06:05,830 --> 00:06:08,750 S3: now being reversed by one cut last month and maybe 119 00:06:08,750 --> 00:06:11,630 S3: another one before the budget. So, yes, the government has 120 00:06:11,630 --> 00:06:14,469 S3: a decent argument to say that through potentially through some 121 00:06:14,470 --> 00:06:17,070 S3: of their IR changes, they got real wages growing. But 122 00:06:17,470 --> 00:06:19,790 S3: the other element of their fiscal strategy has been to 123 00:06:19,830 --> 00:06:22,110 S3: pump a fair bit of money in the economy and 124 00:06:22,110 --> 00:06:25,230 S3: to stimulate private sector demand through rebates and other things, 125 00:06:25,230 --> 00:06:26,910 S3: which keeps prices higher for longer. 126 00:06:26,950 --> 00:06:29,870 S1: Yeah, Shane, I'm interested in your opinion that the Liberal 127 00:06:29,870 --> 00:06:32,630 S1: Party has obviously changed its leadership in recent times, and 128 00:06:32,630 --> 00:06:37,070 S1: Tim Wilson is now the Treasury spokesman who's replaced Ted O'Brien, 129 00:06:37,270 --> 00:06:39,310 S1: who I guess, I mean, I would say probably didn't 130 00:06:39,310 --> 00:06:42,230 S1: get a lot of cut through in his communication. Tim 131 00:06:42,230 --> 00:06:45,830 S1: Wilson has freshened things up a little bit, I would say. 132 00:06:45,910 --> 00:06:49,110 S1: And he's got some strong attack lines on the government. 133 00:06:49,150 --> 00:06:50,750 S1: What what are those attack lines? 134 00:06:51,310 --> 00:06:56,109 S2: He's the real Energizer bunny of in that space. Um, 135 00:06:56,230 --> 00:07:00,660 S2: and Ted was a much more reserved and in focused, 136 00:07:00,660 --> 00:07:03,700 S2: whereas Tim will go, Tim Wilson will go hard and 137 00:07:03,700 --> 00:07:08,140 S2: go wild and go wide. Yeah. So so yeah, like 138 00:07:08,460 --> 00:07:11,460 S2: labeling Jim Jim Chalmers as pirate Jim. 139 00:07:11,820 --> 00:07:16,780 S4: We've had pirate Jim, Jim Chalmers out there pouring debt, uh, 140 00:07:16,780 --> 00:07:20,180 S4: fuel debt, petrol on the inflation fire. Uh, and it's 141 00:07:20,180 --> 00:07:22,420 S4: catching up with the government as their excuses. 142 00:07:22,420 --> 00:07:26,740 S2: No longer like you can see the MAGA connection. They're 143 00:07:26,740 --> 00:07:30,060 S2: trying to come up with a pithy couple of words 144 00:07:30,060 --> 00:07:33,540 S2: to belittle your opposition. I don't like Ted O'Brien was 145 00:07:33,820 --> 00:07:36,820 S2: kept going about Jim Ryan never took off. 146 00:07:37,100 --> 00:07:38,420 S1: Sadly for him. Never really made. 147 00:07:38,420 --> 00:07:40,460 S2: It. Made it. I'm not sure. I'm not convinced by pirate. 148 00:07:40,500 --> 00:07:43,340 S1: He's trying. He's broadening that fire metaphor because he's talking 149 00:07:43,340 --> 00:07:45,540 S1: about bonfire. Like, we've got to see what kind of 150 00:07:45,580 --> 00:07:47,980 S1: bonfire we inherit from the government, you know, when they 151 00:07:48,020 --> 00:07:49,540 S1: next win government in terms of the. 152 00:07:49,540 --> 00:07:52,660 S3: Budget, the the inflation fire, which he says Jim, Jim 153 00:07:52,660 --> 00:07:55,140 S3: Chalmers is pouring debt fuel onto. 154 00:07:55,180 --> 00:07:57,059 S1: Yes. Yeah, there's a lot that's going on. 155 00:07:57,300 --> 00:07:58,900 S2: There is a lot of effort going on. And it's 156 00:07:59,020 --> 00:08:01,900 S2: interesting because we are two months out from a budget 157 00:08:02,540 --> 00:08:07,220 S2: and ultimately, as a government, budgets are such a pivotal 158 00:08:07,220 --> 00:08:11,780 S2: political event because you you can control and change the narrative. 159 00:08:11,940 --> 00:08:15,860 S2: You can do it badly. AKA 2014, for instance. 160 00:08:15,900 --> 00:08:18,140 S5: Great to be here and congratulations on your first budget. 161 00:08:18,140 --> 00:08:20,300 S5: We need to say that too. Well thank you. Now 162 00:08:20,340 --> 00:08:22,820 S5: you've just delivered that budget. It's a budget with a 163 00:08:22,820 --> 00:08:26,020 S5: new tax, with levies, with co-payments. Is it liberating for 164 00:08:26,020 --> 00:08:28,900 S5: a politician to decide? Election promises don't matter. 165 00:08:30,060 --> 00:08:33,219 S6: Well, I don't accept that question. The biggest and most 166 00:08:33,220 --> 00:08:37,060 S6: significant promise we made was to fix the budget and 167 00:08:37,059 --> 00:08:40,300 S6: strengthen the Australian economy. And we will. And this budget 168 00:08:40,300 --> 00:08:40,900 S6: does that. 169 00:08:41,460 --> 00:08:42,380 S5: But you say. 170 00:08:42,420 --> 00:08:46,420 S2: Or you can do it. Say the Howard the Howard budgets, 171 00:08:46,460 --> 00:08:48,860 S2: the Keating budgets, where you you were able to get 172 00:08:48,860 --> 00:08:52,500 S2: real change in the direction of the, of the general 173 00:08:52,500 --> 00:08:55,540 S2: public debate. So Tim Wilson, you can see he's trying 174 00:08:55,540 --> 00:08:58,970 S2: to get ahead of that. He doesn't have a policy position, 175 00:08:58,970 --> 00:09:02,130 S2: although he has, like he has gone, leant really heavily 176 00:09:02,130 --> 00:09:06,970 S2: into the top marginal rate at $0.47. 40, 45% is 177 00:09:06,970 --> 00:09:10,929 S2: too high. So you can see he's setting some markers 178 00:09:11,490 --> 00:09:13,290 S2: for where he wants to go. 179 00:09:13,330 --> 00:09:15,730 S1: That's that's an interesting one because I mean, he's on 180 00:09:15,730 --> 00:09:18,970 S1: a unity ticket there with some unlikely candidates because Bill Kelty, 181 00:09:19,010 --> 00:09:22,370 S1: who is a, you know, labor and union legend, saying 182 00:09:22,370 --> 00:09:24,809 S1: that income taxes are too high and that young people 183 00:09:24,809 --> 00:09:27,170 S1: are missing out. We've got Paul Keating saying that. I 184 00:09:27,170 --> 00:09:29,930 S1: think we've got Ken Henry, the former Treasury head, saying 185 00:09:29,929 --> 00:09:33,570 S1: that now, too, that incomes are taxed too highly and 186 00:09:33,570 --> 00:09:36,770 S1: perhaps wealth not enough. But then Tim Wilson was on 187 00:09:36,770 --> 00:09:39,090 S1: radio this morning and he sort of dodged the question 188 00:09:39,130 --> 00:09:41,089 S1: a little bit and said, you know, we'll always work 189 00:09:41,090 --> 00:09:42,850 S1: towards tax cuts. 190 00:09:42,890 --> 00:09:44,929 S4: At the start of this term. They said that all 191 00:09:44,970 --> 00:09:48,370 S4: their spending pouring, all that debt petrol on the inflation 192 00:09:48,370 --> 00:09:52,330 S4: fire wouldn't be inflationary. It clearly has been. So we're 193 00:09:52,330 --> 00:09:54,370 S4: going to obviously have a plan to the lead up 194 00:09:54,370 --> 00:09:57,130 S4: to the next election. But if I can achieve income 195 00:09:57,170 --> 00:09:59,600 S4: tax cuts I'll always work towards it. 196 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,840 S1: Paul, what's going on here? Are they going to promise 197 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:06,679 S1: tax cuts? And if not, then how would they justify that? 198 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:08,480 S1: And if they do, how would they pay for it? 199 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:10,800 S3: Well, we're so far away from the next election, and 200 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:12,679 S3: Tim Wilson has just got in and has put nothing 201 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:17,360 S3: to shadow cabinet. So something for all the upside of 202 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,000 S3: the Wilson experiment that Shane's just outlined. The risk for 203 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,640 S3: him is that because he's so full of ideas and 204 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,240 S3: zeal that he goes out ahead of Angus Taylor, who 205 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:27,679 S3: will want to have a lot of control on the 206 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:31,120 S3: economic policy making side, given his interest in economics and 207 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,760 S3: his time as shadow treasurer, which was not hugely successful. 208 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,840 S3: But Wilson needs to guard against the sense, particularly among 209 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:42,840 S3: his colleagues, that because he believes he is the the sharpest, 210 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,240 S3: both policy mind and political campaigner, that he's just not 211 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,520 S3: making his own waves and he's actually going through a 212 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:52,440 S3: consultative process that brings his colleagues along. So he's signalling 213 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:56,920 S3: on income tax cuts, aligning himself with a lot of economists, 214 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,510 S3: plus Kelty and Paul Keating, who thinks that the top 215 00:10:59,510 --> 00:11:02,390 S3: marginal rate is too high and cuts in to to 216 00:11:02,390 --> 00:11:05,429 S3: a lower income level, which is, by OECD standards quite 217 00:11:05,470 --> 00:11:07,870 S3: a low rate of income tax for the top marginal 218 00:11:07,870 --> 00:11:11,390 S3: rate to kick in. Tim Wilson is someone who understands 219 00:11:11,390 --> 00:11:16,310 S3: that we're in a period of politics where grabbing attention matters. 220 00:11:16,670 --> 00:11:20,550 S3: Ted O'Brien, his predecessor, and Angus Taylor as well, made 221 00:11:20,550 --> 00:11:24,550 S3: some admirable speeches about debt and deficits. But we don't 222 00:11:24,550 --> 00:11:26,950 S3: live in a time where the Liberal Party can rest 223 00:11:26,950 --> 00:11:30,750 S3: on its laurels and assume the community shares its views 224 00:11:30,750 --> 00:11:32,870 S3: on debt and deficits. Those arguments don't have as much 225 00:11:32,870 --> 00:11:35,630 S3: cut through as they used to. They are behind in 226 00:11:35,670 --> 00:11:39,309 S3: most surveys on economic management, which is a huge reversal. 227 00:11:39,350 --> 00:11:42,790 S3: Wilson understands that you need to be in people's faces. 228 00:11:42,790 --> 00:11:45,670 S3: You need to be able to pin blame on the government. 229 00:11:45,710 --> 00:11:48,430 S3: You need to saturate the media market. So he might 230 00:11:48,429 --> 00:11:50,750 S3: make make some mistakes. And arguably he did in one 231 00:11:50,750 --> 00:11:52,630 S3: of his first days in an interview with us on 232 00:11:52,630 --> 00:11:55,270 S3: the dual mandate, which he disagrees with our interpretation of 233 00:11:55,270 --> 00:11:58,420 S3: what he said. But we were right. Yeah. you tell 234 00:11:58,420 --> 00:12:00,900 S3: him that. But. But what he will do, he might 235 00:12:00,900 --> 00:12:03,819 S3: make some stumbles along the way. And who knows? Chalmers 236 00:12:03,820 --> 00:12:07,740 S3: is also incredibly wily politician. But what Wilson will do 237 00:12:07,740 --> 00:12:12,420 S3: is elevate his arguments, make them in every place possible. And, 238 00:12:12,420 --> 00:12:14,420 S3: as Shane says, act like an Energizer bunny. 239 00:12:14,660 --> 00:12:19,540 S2: Yeah, he's interesting because like, having somebody who, like, he 240 00:12:19,540 --> 00:12:23,699 S2: has written like when he was the member for Goldstein 241 00:12:24,620 --> 00:12:27,100 S2: before he lost the seat and before he won it back, 242 00:12:27,140 --> 00:12:30,620 S2: he wrote around housing. And because he could recognize that 243 00:12:30,620 --> 00:12:35,420 S2: housing and housing affordability was a problem, the policy solutions 244 00:12:35,420 --> 00:12:39,420 S2: in that space gets you to where we are, for instance, 245 00:12:39,420 --> 00:12:42,819 S2: on capital gains tax and the concession that's affecting which 246 00:12:42,820 --> 00:12:46,500 S2: we're about to talk about. Yeah. Where so you've mentioned 247 00:12:46,540 --> 00:12:49,300 S2: like Bill Kelty and Ken Henry talking about yes, we 248 00:12:49,300 --> 00:12:51,700 S2: have to reduce the top marginal rate, but you do 249 00:12:51,700 --> 00:12:55,060 S2: have to pay for it somehow. And that means changing 250 00:12:55,059 --> 00:12:59,460 S2: the tax mix. Yeah. Since the Ken Henry tax report. 251 00:12:59,860 --> 00:13:03,580 S2: So that's 16 years ago. Now, the options in that 252 00:13:03,580 --> 00:13:07,140 S2: space that have come out have not been changing the 253 00:13:07,140 --> 00:13:09,220 S2: tax mix. They've only just been about oh, we've got 254 00:13:09,260 --> 00:13:13,020 S2: to reduce or change a tax, Henry. And we go 255 00:13:13,020 --> 00:13:17,020 S2: back to GST reform under Howard-costello. And we go back 256 00:13:17,020 --> 00:13:20,339 S2: to where Keating really kicked it off, where he changed 257 00:13:20,340 --> 00:13:25,860 S2: the tax system in 1985. They were big tax mix changes. Yeah. 258 00:13:25,900 --> 00:13:28,580 S2: And that's what delivers you reform. That's what helps the 259 00:13:28,580 --> 00:13:31,100 S2: economy not just one off things. And you can see 260 00:13:31,140 --> 00:13:34,300 S2: the the Liberal Party is in danger of already getting 261 00:13:34,300 --> 00:13:37,020 S2: caught saying right. We will cherry pick a little bit. 262 00:13:37,220 --> 00:13:38,700 S2: It's holistic. That's the problem. 263 00:13:38,700 --> 00:13:41,500 S3: Well Ted O'Brien last term went out. I was talking 264 00:13:41,500 --> 00:13:44,660 S3: to a liberal about this just yesterday actually, he boxed 265 00:13:44,660 --> 00:13:46,939 S3: in Sussan Ley because in one of his first weeks 266 00:13:46,940 --> 00:13:48,500 S3: as shadow treasurer, I didn't know this at the time 267 00:13:48,540 --> 00:13:51,740 S3: until yesterday, he made a declaration that the Liberal Party 268 00:13:51,740 --> 00:13:54,860 S3: would not support any tax rises, no matter what in 269 00:13:54,860 --> 00:13:57,420 S3: any context, which meant that the leader had to back 270 00:13:57,490 --> 00:14:00,290 S3: him in and say, yep, no tax can be contemplated 271 00:14:00,290 --> 00:14:02,689 S3: even if it's part of a broader package. So that 272 00:14:02,690 --> 00:14:04,410 S3: kind of boxed them in and didn't even allow them 273 00:14:04,410 --> 00:14:07,250 S3: to explore any tax rises, which could. 274 00:14:07,290 --> 00:14:09,969 S1: Offset you into making budget cuts, basically, if you're going 275 00:14:09,970 --> 00:14:11,330 S1: to pay for anything. 276 00:14:11,850 --> 00:14:12,290 S3: Yeah. 277 00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:15,210 S2: And if and Tim Wilson's got to this line saying, right, 278 00:14:15,210 --> 00:14:19,170 S2: we'll just like catching up, say with the reporting by 279 00:14:19,170 --> 00:14:23,850 S2: Nick McKenzie about how much has gone through to the CFMEU. 280 00:14:24,370 --> 00:14:27,130 S2: And he says, oh, we'll save $15 billion. I'm sorry 281 00:14:27,450 --> 00:14:29,010 S2: that $15 billion has gone. 282 00:14:29,050 --> 00:14:32,490 S1: It's gone. It's in the pockets of various corrupt union officials. 283 00:14:32,530 --> 00:14:35,890 S2: That's right. So you can't you can't you can't save 284 00:14:35,890 --> 00:14:36,290 S2: the money. 285 00:14:36,290 --> 00:14:39,010 S3: That's maybe that's a good talking point, not a good policy. 286 00:14:39,050 --> 00:14:41,850 S1: They're all out there buying them flat screen TVs. Shane, 287 00:14:41,890 --> 00:14:44,610 S1: you said the three magic words. Capital gains tax. We 288 00:14:44,610 --> 00:14:45,730 S1: love capital gains tax. 289 00:14:45,770 --> 00:14:48,330 S2: I could see your excitement when I mentioned those three words. 290 00:14:48,490 --> 00:14:51,250 S1: I actually do find this stuff really interesting. So the 291 00:14:51,250 --> 00:14:53,850 S1: government is edging closer to basically admitting that it's going 292 00:14:53,890 --> 00:14:57,210 S1: to do something on the CGT discount of 50%, which is, 293 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:01,760 S1: you know, a tax look for investors in the federal budget. 294 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,960 S1: And it seems like they're going to do that perhaps 295 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,720 S1: in conjunction with some sort of income tax cut. So 296 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,440 S1: they're like, okay, we'll take from this area and we 297 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,600 S1: will give it back to more people and, you know, 298 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,800 S1: in a more judicious fashion. Or maybe that's how they'll 299 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,360 S1: spin it. You wrote a really interesting piece this week 300 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:20,040 S1: about the CGT tax and the discount as well. And 301 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:21,840 S1: I think what we lose sight of is that the 302 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,560 S1: discount was introduced for very good, sound economic reasons. Can 303 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,360 S1: you just tell us why the discount was introduced and 304 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:29,000 S1: by whom? 305 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:33,840 S2: Right. So 1985 your where down at the old Parliament 306 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:37,280 S2: House in Canberra. And Paul Keating is he's been boxed off. 307 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,120 S2: He can't introduce a consumption tax. But he says we've 308 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,600 S2: got to change the tax system. So the company tax 309 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,520 S2: rate is cut. The top marginal rate at the time 310 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,680 S2: was $0.60 in the dollar. And he got it under. 311 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,080 S2: He got it to 49 uh in that that move. 312 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:54,600 S2: But he said we've got to pay for it. So 313 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:58,350 S2: we're going to tax fringe benefits AKA you and I 314 00:15:58,390 --> 00:16:01,150 S2: going out for a liquid lunch. Sorry, we're going to 315 00:16:01,150 --> 00:16:04,470 S2: have to pay some tax on that. Uh, and capital gains, 316 00:16:04,630 --> 00:16:08,790 S2: because at the time, higher income earners who owned assets, 317 00:16:08,830 --> 00:16:11,910 S2: be they, they were largely shares, be they property, they 318 00:16:11,910 --> 00:16:15,830 S2: were making big capital gains, not paying any tax on it. 319 00:16:15,870 --> 00:16:17,350 S2: So I said, that's how we pay for it. The 320 00:16:17,350 --> 00:16:21,270 S2: Liberal Party opposed the FBT and the CGT for the 321 00:16:21,270 --> 00:16:25,590 S2: next ten years. But at the time the Keating said right. 322 00:16:25,630 --> 00:16:30,550 S2: We understand if the if the value of your, your asset, 323 00:16:30,590 --> 00:16:33,270 S2: your house, your shares goes up, it has to go 324 00:16:33,270 --> 00:16:36,670 S2: up more than just inflation. We want to tax the 325 00:16:36,710 --> 00:16:39,590 S2: extra real income that your that the extra profit that 326 00:16:39,590 --> 00:16:42,790 S2: you're getting, the extra asset not just not the inflation. 327 00:16:42,790 --> 00:16:44,910 S2: We really don't want to do that. So he it 328 00:16:44,910 --> 00:16:47,990 S2: was it was convoluted but it understood. Like we are 329 00:16:47,990 --> 00:16:51,070 S2: going to take into account what inflation is. Every year 330 00:16:51,910 --> 00:16:55,750 S2: we get to 1999. The Ralph review of business taxation 331 00:16:55,750 --> 00:16:59,150 S2: drops in this recommendation, which and it was unusual because 332 00:16:59,150 --> 00:17:03,430 S2: this wasn't business taxation. It was right. Let's simplify that system. 333 00:17:03,430 --> 00:17:07,510 S2: We'll just give it a straight 50% discount as opposed 334 00:17:07,510 --> 00:17:11,550 S2: to whatever the inflation rate is. And that was introduced 335 00:17:11,550 --> 00:17:14,750 S2: with the idea that this will encourage everyone you, me 336 00:17:14,750 --> 00:17:17,950 S2: and Paul will race down. We'll phone our local stockbroker 337 00:17:17,950 --> 00:17:19,110 S2: and we'll buy some shares. 338 00:17:19,150 --> 00:17:20,470 S1: Yeah. So that's what I'm talking about. 339 00:17:20,470 --> 00:17:20,830 S2: That was the. 340 00:17:20,830 --> 00:17:24,109 S1: Idea that it would bring capital into markets, and it 341 00:17:24,109 --> 00:17:26,030 S1: was sort of democratize that, like we would, you know, 342 00:17:26,070 --> 00:17:28,270 S1: ordinary people would be able to go out and buy 343 00:17:28,270 --> 00:17:30,270 S1: shares and there would be an influx of investment into 344 00:17:30,270 --> 00:17:30,949 S1: the share market. 345 00:17:30,950 --> 00:17:37,710 S2: Margaret Thatcher's shareholder democracy. That's the thought. Yeah, but but 346 00:17:38,390 --> 00:17:41,590 S2: Acoss and a couple of other community organizations said Australians 347 00:17:41,590 --> 00:17:44,310 S2: aren't going to do that, you silly silly billies. They're 348 00:17:44,310 --> 00:17:48,109 S2: going to go buy property, which is exactly what they did. 349 00:17:48,190 --> 00:17:50,030 S2: And you can see it. And it's the way it 350 00:17:50,070 --> 00:17:54,150 S2: interacts with negative gearing. As Saul Eslake, the preeminent economist, 351 00:17:54,190 --> 00:17:58,659 S2: noted this week, a majority of people were positively geared, 352 00:17:58,660 --> 00:18:01,980 S2: they made a profit from their rental properties after the 353 00:18:01,980 --> 00:18:07,660 S2: CGT concession. The 50% is introduced. Their accountants say, hey, 354 00:18:07,940 --> 00:18:10,940 S2: if you lose some money on your rental property, you're 355 00:18:10,940 --> 00:18:15,300 S2: going to make it back far more because the capital gain, 356 00:18:15,340 --> 00:18:18,419 S2: the tax advantaged capital gain you're going to get. So 357 00:18:18,460 --> 00:18:20,780 S2: that's what that's exactly what happened. 358 00:18:20,820 --> 00:18:23,500 S1: Yeah. I mean, broadly, I think there's agreement that the 359 00:18:23,500 --> 00:18:27,699 S1: interaction of those two investment perks have pushed up property 360 00:18:27,700 --> 00:18:31,220 S1: prices or certainly correlated with with an uptick in property prices. 361 00:18:31,220 --> 00:18:33,540 S2: Property prices has one side. I just want to make 362 00:18:33,540 --> 00:18:37,620 S2: this important point. It hurts first home buyers. Yeah, they 363 00:18:37,660 --> 00:18:39,860 S2: are the ones who are competing against the investors. This 364 00:18:39,859 --> 00:18:42,940 S2: is where the evidence from Ken Henry this week saying, 365 00:18:43,140 --> 00:18:45,540 S2: here I am going up to Sydney with my kids. 366 00:18:45,740 --> 00:18:50,220 S2: We're standing there at an auction and we're competing against investors. 367 00:18:50,220 --> 00:18:53,380 S2: My kids could not buy their own home. The investor 368 00:18:53,380 --> 00:18:56,370 S2: bought it. That's really where the rubber hits the road 369 00:18:56,369 --> 00:18:56,770 S2: on this. 370 00:18:56,810 --> 00:18:58,649 S1: I literally have been there, and I think a lot 371 00:18:58,650 --> 00:19:00,850 S1: of people will have have had that experience or their 372 00:19:00,850 --> 00:19:04,290 S1: kids will have had that experience. Paul. Most economists say 373 00:19:04,330 --> 00:19:06,810 S1: even if they make these CGT changes in the federal budget, 374 00:19:06,810 --> 00:19:09,169 S1: it won't make a huge difference to property prices, but 375 00:19:09,170 --> 00:19:11,889 S1: it will make a difference to property prices. Do you 376 00:19:11,890 --> 00:19:13,649 S1: think this is something that the government's going to be 377 00:19:13,650 --> 00:19:16,369 S1: able to take over the line and argue if Jim Chalmers, 378 00:19:16,369 --> 00:19:19,330 S1: who is a good communicator, sort of makes the argument? Well. 379 00:19:20,450 --> 00:19:23,689 S3: I think it's totally open to Jim Chalmers to make 380 00:19:23,730 --> 00:19:26,850 S3: a compelling case for why this change is needed. There 381 00:19:26,850 --> 00:19:30,250 S3: is really strong consensus, Shane, don't you agree? The economist 382 00:19:30,250 --> 00:19:34,090 S3: community across the business community. I mean, Jeff Wilson, the 383 00:19:34,090 --> 00:19:36,530 S3: cousin of Tim Wilson who led the franking credits campaign, 384 00:19:36,530 --> 00:19:40,649 S3: is open to change here. There is Matt Coleman, the 385 00:19:40,650 --> 00:19:44,650 S3: head of Commonwealth Bank, on Wednesday night on 730. I mean, 386 00:19:44,810 --> 00:19:48,129 S3: if the Liberal Party is reflex here to in a 387 00:19:48,130 --> 00:19:51,130 S3: at a low point fight, this change is telling on 388 00:19:51,130 --> 00:19:53,770 S3: where they're at. Tim Wilson is someone who for years, 389 00:19:53,770 --> 00:19:56,639 S3: as you mentioned, Shane has been writing about the need 390 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,920 S3: to regenerate the dream of home ownership to create a 391 00:19:59,920 --> 00:20:02,640 S3: voting constituency for the Liberal Party, because the idea has 392 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,880 S3: always been since Menzies that if you have a stake 393 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,959 S3: in the society, you become more conservative, you feel attached 394 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,840 S3: to the place and you vote liberal. If that cohort 395 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,240 S3: dies off because home ownership is so difficult, the Liberal 396 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,840 S3: Party may not receive those votes in future. So if 397 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,760 S3: there was a if there was a more kind of 398 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:22,480 S3: if there was a liberal party that was able to 399 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,240 S3: sit back and analyze this with a more rational mindset, 400 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,480 S3: I think you could get bipartisanship, but that's unlikely. And yes, 401 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,280 S3: it may not reduce house prices to an extent that 402 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,280 S3: radically makes home ownership easier, but it will tilt the 403 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:38,240 S3: balance in favor of first home buyers rather than investors, 404 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,200 S3: which is an objective which is an objectively good thing. 405 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:45,520 S3: And Australia's wealth stored in investment properties is the highest 406 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,359 S3: in the OECD outside of Luxembourg. Tiny country? 407 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,960 S1: Yeah. Even when you put sort of all the ins 408 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,680 S1: and outs of the economic arguments aside and most people 409 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,350 S1: won't be listening or paying much attention to the detail 410 00:20:57,350 --> 00:21:00,230 S1: of that. My sense is that the vibe will be 411 00:21:00,230 --> 00:21:02,150 S1: that the government is at least trying to do something, 412 00:21:02,190 --> 00:21:04,830 S1: change some of the settings or a bunch of settings. 413 00:21:04,830 --> 00:21:07,149 S1: I think Claire O'Neill said this week that they were 414 00:21:07,150 --> 00:21:09,350 S1: going to pull all the levers, levers they could to 415 00:21:09,390 --> 00:21:12,990 S1: address the home ownership equity disparity. 416 00:21:13,030 --> 00:21:14,750 S2: I Jack, I was going to say it goes to 417 00:21:14,750 --> 00:21:19,910 S2: the intergenerational equity argument that that Chalmers and Albanese have 418 00:21:19,910 --> 00:21:23,550 S2: been really, really leaning into. And I'm going like, if 419 00:21:23,550 --> 00:21:26,429 S2: you look at polls and you can see, uh, younger 420 00:21:26,430 --> 00:21:30,229 S2: people being interested in one nation, for instance, and then 421 00:21:30,270 --> 00:21:32,590 S2: you've got a policy, even though it may not have 422 00:21:32,590 --> 00:21:36,109 S2: a huge impact, you say, right, we're going to target, 423 00:21:36,750 --> 00:21:39,949 S2: we're going to change CGT. There's no one under 35 424 00:21:39,990 --> 00:21:43,070 S2: who's heavily invested in the Australian property market. As an investor, 425 00:21:43,070 --> 00:21:47,150 S2: let's be absolutely blunt. Like the the politics of this 426 00:21:47,150 --> 00:21:50,230 S2: is right. This is going to help you get into 427 00:21:50,270 --> 00:21:54,230 S2: a home versus the older cohort and the majority of 428 00:21:54,230 --> 00:21:57,550 S2: people with big asset holdings who were affected by CGT, 429 00:21:57,590 --> 00:22:02,310 S2: are over the age of 65. Talk about intergenerational equity. 430 00:22:02,310 --> 00:22:04,270 S2: This is an intergenerational fight as well. 431 00:22:04,310 --> 00:22:06,190 S3: Having said I agree, Shane, having said what I just 432 00:22:06,190 --> 00:22:08,869 S3: did about the liberals reflex to oppose this policy, you 433 00:22:08,869 --> 00:22:12,670 S3: can understand their skepticism on a labor tax change because 434 00:22:12,670 --> 00:22:15,429 S3: this government hasn't shown much appetite to date to do 435 00:22:15,470 --> 00:22:18,109 S3: much on the supply side. So a Liberal party wants. 436 00:22:18,430 --> 00:22:20,630 S3: They might be more open to capital gains if they 437 00:22:20,630 --> 00:22:23,350 S3: can see a package which also does something on income 438 00:22:23,350 --> 00:22:26,790 S3: tax cuts. It also does something on supply in housing 439 00:22:26,910 --> 00:22:29,750 S3: that also includes spending restraint. And Jim Chalmers has a 440 00:22:29,750 --> 00:22:33,110 S3: huge opportunity here to take on the Liberal Party in 441 00:22:33,109 --> 00:22:35,030 S3: its low moment and say, we're going to cut back 442 00:22:35,030 --> 00:22:37,750 S3: on the NDIS further, we're going to do actual restraint 443 00:22:37,750 --> 00:22:40,470 S3: in this budget. We're going to do CGT, big stuff 444 00:22:40,510 --> 00:22:42,750 S3: on housing supply. Imagine how. 445 00:22:43,109 --> 00:22:43,710 S2: An income tax. 446 00:22:43,869 --> 00:22:46,149 S3: Toss in an income tax cut. Imagine how powerful that 447 00:22:46,150 --> 00:22:48,790 S3: would be in taking on Angus Taylor's new message on 448 00:22:48,790 --> 00:22:52,750 S3: budget management. And in saying to voters open to one nation, hey, 449 00:22:52,950 --> 00:22:56,740 S3: these guys are putting grievance. We are radically reshaping the economy, 450 00:22:57,380 --> 00:23:01,379 S3: housing and budget management to help working class and younger 451 00:23:01,380 --> 00:23:04,139 S3: Australians and and Gen X Australians who are feeling the 452 00:23:04,140 --> 00:23:05,820 S3: pinch too. It's not just young Australians. 453 00:23:05,859 --> 00:23:08,060 S2: Well that thinks he's just managed to get us into 454 00:23:08,060 --> 00:23:09,100 S2: the discussion there. 455 00:23:09,300 --> 00:23:10,740 S1: Younger Gen X, Gen X. 456 00:23:10,820 --> 00:23:11,860 S2: The younger Gen-xers. 457 00:23:12,060 --> 00:23:12,659 S1: Millennial. 458 00:23:13,780 --> 00:23:16,820 S3: Well, not wealthy, older, older, older journalists who are still 459 00:23:16,820 --> 00:23:18,940 S3: still benefiting from the rivers of gold of the golden 460 00:23:18,940 --> 00:23:19,900 S3: days of this industry. 461 00:23:20,500 --> 00:23:22,659 S1: Guys, just on another matter this week there was a 462 00:23:22,660 --> 00:23:24,620 S1: security threat at the lodge, and the Prime Minister had 463 00:23:24,619 --> 00:23:28,020 S1: to be evacuated on Tuesday night. Paul, can you tell 464 00:23:28,020 --> 00:23:29,300 S1: us what happened exactly? 465 00:23:30,220 --> 00:23:33,699 S3: Yes. At about 6 p.m. on Tuesday night, the Federal 466 00:23:33,700 --> 00:23:38,939 S3: Police received a notification from a performing arts group called 467 00:23:38,940 --> 00:23:42,620 S3: the Shenyan Group, which is associated with the Falun Gong 468 00:23:43,420 --> 00:23:46,900 S3: Group in Out of China, which was established in the 90s. 469 00:23:46,940 --> 00:23:51,740 S3: It's turned into a kind of transnational spiritual movement that 470 00:23:51,740 --> 00:23:54,660 S3: includes a lot of Chinese dissidents. The Chinese government is 471 00:23:54,810 --> 00:23:57,370 S3: highly suspicious of it. It tries to crack down on 472 00:23:57,369 --> 00:24:00,930 S3: its operations in Western countries, including in a court case 473 00:24:00,930 --> 00:24:03,689 S3: in Canberra where there are Chinese nationals who are accused 474 00:24:03,690 --> 00:24:07,290 S3: of spying on this group in the national capital. So 475 00:24:07,410 --> 00:24:11,330 S3: this group, Shen Yun, is holding a bunch of different 476 00:24:11,570 --> 00:24:15,570 S3: dance shows in Canberra and Brisbane, and they received a 477 00:24:15,570 --> 00:24:21,689 S3: message on Tuesday from an unknown party saying that the 478 00:24:21,690 --> 00:24:25,490 S3: Prime Minister's residence at the lodge all around it was 479 00:24:25,490 --> 00:24:30,129 S3: surrounded by explosive devices and if this event was to 480 00:24:30,170 --> 00:24:32,649 S3: take place, they would be exploded in the Prime Minister 481 00:24:32,650 --> 00:24:35,050 S3: would be harmed. So this was sent to the AFP. 482 00:24:35,090 --> 00:24:37,690 S3: The Prime Minister was at the lodge. He left the 483 00:24:37,690 --> 00:24:40,290 S3: lodge for a few hours and went to his parliamentary office. 484 00:24:40,490 --> 00:24:43,850 S3: He returned at about 930 or 10, when it was 485 00:24:43,850 --> 00:24:47,090 S3: determined by the AFP that there were no explosive devices around. 486 00:24:47,609 --> 00:24:50,450 S1: Thankfully, the threat ended up being an empty threat from 487 00:24:50,450 --> 00:24:52,010 S1: what we can tell, they said. But they did mean 488 00:24:52,050 --> 00:24:54,729 S1: it was pretty violent language. They said. These people who 489 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,879 S1: made the threat said that blood will flow and the 490 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:58,840 S1: building would be blown into ruins, and there were large 491 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:03,359 S1: quantities of nitroglycerine planted around the official residence. Prime Minister 492 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,520 S1: Anthony Albanese said afterwards, you know, this is one of 493 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,440 S1: the reasons why we need to take the temperature down 494 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,120 S1: or we need to sort of not run so hot 495 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:10,240 S1: with our political debate. 496 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:15,040 S7: I think it's just a reminder. Take every opportunity to 497 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,600 S7: tell people, turn the heat down for goodness sake. Like, 498 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,840 S7: you know, we can't take these things for granted. Turn 499 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:22,480 S7: it down. 500 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:27,119 S1: The AFP investigated 950 politically motivated threats in the financial 501 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:31,280 S1: year ending July 2025, which is a 63% increase on 502 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,720 S1: the combined total of the previous four years. So, I mean, 503 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,320 S1: what are sort of what's ASIO and the AFP commissioner 504 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,640 S1: saying about these kinds of threats and how, you know, 505 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,679 S1: how we can counter them or what what they tell 506 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,200 S1: us about social cohesion? 507 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,479 S3: Um, well, there was a you recall the very often 508 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:53,000 S3: repeated comments from Mike Burgess, the ASIO head, just after 509 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,470 S3: the October 7th massacres in 2023, where he said in 510 00:25:56,470 --> 00:25:59,870 S3: a warning to our politicians that words matter and that 511 00:26:00,270 --> 00:26:03,430 S3: rhetoric often leads to real world violence. And you're seeing 512 00:26:03,430 --> 00:26:04,670 S3: this trend around the world. 513 00:26:05,510 --> 00:26:07,869 S8: Every one of us has a role to play protecting 514 00:26:07,950 --> 00:26:12,030 S8: our social cohesion. Our words matter. Our decisions matter. Our 515 00:26:12,070 --> 00:26:16,670 S8: actions matter. In an age of unprecedented or an age 516 00:26:16,670 --> 00:26:21,190 S8: with unprecedented avenues for communication, I fear we're losing our 517 00:26:21,190 --> 00:26:23,830 S8: ability to converse. Or at least. 518 00:26:23,869 --> 00:26:26,990 S3: And just on the politics surrounding this threat. The Prime 519 00:26:26,990 --> 00:26:30,189 S3: Minister in the days afterwards, and his own ministers repeated 520 00:26:30,190 --> 00:26:32,909 S3: the comments that he's been making for years now to 521 00:26:32,950 --> 00:26:36,430 S3: take the temperature down. He uses this in relation to 522 00:26:36,630 --> 00:26:40,270 S3: the Greens and pro-Palestinian protesters who use the term globalize 523 00:26:40,270 --> 00:26:43,109 S3: the intifada. He equally uses it when he talks about 524 00:26:43,109 --> 00:26:46,109 S3: One nation and some of the rhetoric, particularly from the 525 00:26:46,109 --> 00:26:50,070 S3: Dutton opposition. And it's an admirable attempt by the Prime 526 00:26:50,070 --> 00:26:52,909 S3: Minister to say we need to maintain the centre ground. 527 00:26:52,950 --> 00:26:55,550 S3: The radical fringes need to watch their language. But I 528 00:26:55,550 --> 00:26:58,470 S3: do question his use of that term in this context, 529 00:26:58,470 --> 00:27:01,310 S3: because this threat doesn't appear to have come from an 530 00:27:01,310 --> 00:27:06,710 S3: Australian based actor or anyone channelling those views. But there 531 00:27:06,710 --> 00:27:09,469 S3: is a really heightened sense in our politics at the 532 00:27:09,470 --> 00:27:13,830 S3: moment that it is becoming more caustic. Even this week 533 00:27:13,830 --> 00:27:17,150 S3: we're seeing mainstream politicians like, well, political figures like Josh 534 00:27:17,150 --> 00:27:20,030 S3: Frydenberg and others at a conference in Sydney talk about 535 00:27:20,030 --> 00:27:25,149 S3: a discriminatory migration program. Julian Hill, a labor left minister, 536 00:27:25,190 --> 00:27:28,270 S3: this week talked about some of the problems with multiculturalism 537 00:27:28,270 --> 00:27:32,270 S3: and quite a thoughtful critique, so that new conversation around 538 00:27:32,270 --> 00:27:35,670 S3: race and migration is leading to some pretty sharp remarks, 539 00:27:35,670 --> 00:27:37,990 S3: which is what is leading the Prime Minister and others 540 00:27:37,990 --> 00:27:40,869 S3: to take threats like this much more seriously, and to 541 00:27:40,910 --> 00:27:43,109 S3: react to them as if they could be real, because 542 00:27:43,109 --> 00:27:45,350 S3: there is worry that they will become real. 543 00:27:45,869 --> 00:27:48,350 S1: Um, fellas, sorry to end on that rather grim note, 544 00:27:48,350 --> 00:27:51,390 S1: but thank you both very much for joining us. And 545 00:27:51,390 --> 00:27:53,990 S1: Shane in particular, because as you know, you are a favourite, Paul, 546 00:27:54,100 --> 00:27:57,180 S1: you're also a favorite, but just different. Different, okay. 547 00:27:57,780 --> 00:28:00,460 S2: Don't pander to him. Don't pander to him. I'm the 548 00:28:00,460 --> 00:28:01,260 S2: special guest star. 549 00:28:01,300 --> 00:28:04,459 S1: Equally equally adored, but just in a different way, right? 550 00:28:04,500 --> 00:28:05,740 S3: I'm not. I'm not insecure. 551 00:28:06,660 --> 00:28:06,900 S1: No. 552 00:28:07,260 --> 00:28:08,500 S3: I actually really am. 553 00:28:09,540 --> 00:28:12,580 S1: All good journalists are insecure. Okay, see you guys. 554 00:28:12,900 --> 00:28:13,260 S2: Cheers. 555 00:28:13,300 --> 00:28:13,659 S3: Bye. 556 00:28:18,420 --> 00:28:20,379 S1: You can read all of our political news on our 557 00:28:20,380 --> 00:28:27,420 S1: websites theage.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai 558 00:28:27,460 --> 00:28:30,900 S1: Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is 559 00:28:30,900 --> 00:28:34,340 S1: Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy 560 00:28:34,340 --> 00:28:39,420 S1: and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, follow Inside Politics and 561 00:28:39,420 --> 00:28:43,380 S1: leave us a review on Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley. 562 00:28:43,380 --> 00:28:44,420 S1: Thank you for listening.