1 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,280 S1: For someone who has said that he's already won the 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:10,360 S1: war in Iran. Donald Trump sure is angry, lashing out 3 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:14,560 S1: the other night against allies including Australia, who have declined 4 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,840 S1: to send ships to the Middle East to help put 5 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:21,640 S1: a stop to the current oil crisis. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, 6 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,560 S1: and you're listening to The Morning Edition from The Age 7 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:29,160 S1: and The Sydney Morning Herald today, international and political editor 8 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,080 S1: Peter Hartcher on the attacks that Donald Trump is now 9 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:36,360 S1: facing from within his own party over this war. And 10 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:44,239 S1: who's really winning in this conflict? It's March the 19th. Peter, 11 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:45,800 S1: welcome back to the podcast. 12 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:46,839 S2: Good to see you, Samantha. 13 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,720 S1: Okay. Talk about timing, because just the night before we're 14 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,280 S1: recording this, Donald Trump had a tantrum on social media. 15 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,680 S1: Now he's no stranger to the dummy spit, but this 16 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:01,310 S1: time he's unleashed his temper on us amongst other people. Peter, 17 00:01:01,310 --> 00:01:02,030 S1: what did he say? 18 00:01:03,070 --> 00:01:06,589 S2: Well, he put out this, uh, Truth Social post as 19 00:01:06,590 --> 00:01:10,390 S2: he does every five minutes. Uh, to say that, well, 20 00:01:10,390 --> 00:01:14,870 S2: he didn't really need or want help from allies with 21 00:01:14,910 --> 00:01:17,670 S2: the Strait of Hormuz, even though he'd asked them for it. 22 00:01:18,310 --> 00:01:21,789 S2: And he didn't want or need the assistance of the 23 00:01:21,790 --> 00:01:25,510 S2: NATO allies or Japan or South Korea or Australia. 24 00:01:25,870 --> 00:01:28,509 S1: Right. Okay. So give us some background to this. I mean, 25 00:01:28,830 --> 00:01:30,470 S1: or to put it in another way, I know that 26 00:01:30,470 --> 00:01:33,670 S1: neither you nor I are mind readers, but do you 27 00:01:33,670 --> 00:01:36,670 S1: think in all likelihood, this is coming from a place 28 00:01:36,670 --> 00:01:39,990 S1: of real stress because the war is going so badly? 29 00:01:40,030 --> 00:01:42,149 S1: Perhaps you can tell us A about how the war 30 00:01:42,150 --> 00:01:45,310 S1: is going for the United States, and also just how 31 00:01:45,350 --> 00:01:47,030 S1: Maga is sort of splitting over this. 32 00:01:48,190 --> 00:01:51,710 S2: Well, you know, we aren't mind readers, but the fact 33 00:01:51,710 --> 00:01:54,310 S2: that this man has so much power and operates so 34 00:01:54,350 --> 00:01:58,660 S2: unconventionally requires us to try to get inside his head, 35 00:01:58,660 --> 00:02:01,220 S2: which must be a very ugly place, and I'd rather not. 36 00:02:01,780 --> 00:02:06,540 S2: But we're forced to try and sort out what otherwise 37 00:02:06,660 --> 00:02:11,060 S2: seems incomprehensible. In response to that tantrum, I noticed that the. 38 00:02:11,900 --> 00:02:14,900 S2: For anybody not familiar with Australian politics, Andrew Hastie is 39 00:02:14,900 --> 00:02:17,500 S2: a member of the conservative opposition party and he's on 40 00:02:17,500 --> 00:02:21,060 S2: the conservative wing, the right wing of the of the 41 00:02:21,060 --> 00:02:25,739 S2: Liberal Party in Australia. And he described Trump's comments as petulant. 42 00:02:26,060 --> 00:02:28,340 S3: Look, I thought it was a petulant post from a 43 00:02:28,340 --> 00:02:31,340 S3: president under immense pressure. Yesterday, he said. 44 00:02:31,380 --> 00:02:34,380 S2: And I think that's very apt. I think what we 45 00:02:34,380 --> 00:02:39,740 S2: see in Trump increasingly and and confirmed, you know, day 46 00:02:39,740 --> 00:02:44,820 S2: by day is somebody with the mindset of a of 47 00:02:44,860 --> 00:02:50,980 S2: a petulant, adolescent, insecure bully with the tactics of a 48 00:02:50,980 --> 00:02:55,780 S2: sociopath and the weapons of a superpower. And this is 49 00:02:55,780 --> 00:02:59,619 S2: being inflicted on the world with an increasingly baffled world 50 00:02:59,900 --> 00:03:06,700 S2: with increasing force. The tantrum over the allies is relatively mild, 51 00:03:06,700 --> 00:03:08,700 S2: and as far as I can tell, nobody's been killed 52 00:03:08,700 --> 00:03:12,579 S2: as a result of that one. But why the oil problem? 53 00:03:12,980 --> 00:03:16,940 S2: It was eminently predictable. And yet the world now finds 54 00:03:16,940 --> 00:03:20,820 S2: itself in an oil crisis. The Wall Street Journal reported 55 00:03:20,820 --> 00:03:26,740 S2: late last week that the Pentagon had actually said to Trump, now, Mr. President, 56 00:03:26,780 --> 00:03:30,300 S2: the Iranians could close the Strait of Hormuz. Let's plan 57 00:03:30,300 --> 00:03:32,420 S2: for that. And he brushed it aside, according to the 58 00:03:32,419 --> 00:03:36,060 S2: Wall Street Journal. Trump dismissed the possibility that the Iranians 59 00:03:36,060 --> 00:03:40,660 S2: would close the strait and said, oh, they'll collapse before 60 00:03:40,660 --> 00:03:43,620 S2: they have a chance to shut down the oil. So 61 00:03:43,660 --> 00:03:46,460 S2: he was warned. He dismissed the warnings and proceeded with 62 00:03:46,460 --> 00:03:50,300 S2: an ill advised war, which he's never been able to justify. 63 00:03:50,340 --> 00:03:54,890 S2: Still struggles to justify with justifications that vary day to 64 00:03:54,930 --> 00:04:00,250 S2: day where he didn't bother to advise or bring in 65 00:04:00,850 --> 00:04:05,010 S2: on the war. Any allies apart from Israel? And then 66 00:04:05,010 --> 00:04:09,090 S2: when he finds himself in this predictable muddle where the 67 00:04:09,090 --> 00:04:12,010 S2: oil supply is shut down out of the Strait of Hormuz, 68 00:04:12,730 --> 00:04:15,610 S2: he turns to allies, asks for help. The allies, having 69 00:04:15,610 --> 00:04:19,770 S2: been insulted by Trump for years, dismissed in every possible way. 70 00:04:19,810 --> 00:04:21,130 S1: To their face in some instances. 71 00:04:21,130 --> 00:04:24,290 S2: In some instances to their face, and in some instances 72 00:04:24,290 --> 00:04:30,010 S2: to their political detriment. And in the case of Ukraine, 73 00:04:30,050 --> 00:04:33,530 S2: not not a traditional ally, but to to the potential 74 00:04:33,529 --> 00:04:37,250 S2: danger of of the existence of their country, then expects 75 00:04:37,250 --> 00:04:41,089 S2: the the allies to set aside all of that and 76 00:04:41,089 --> 00:04:45,010 S2: then send their assets, their militaries, their personnel to risk 77 00:04:45,010 --> 00:04:48,610 S2: death in the Strait of Hormuz to help Donald Trump 78 00:04:48,610 --> 00:04:54,240 S2: with a problem that he has manufactured entirely of his own. 79 00:04:54,760 --> 00:05:00,240 S2: So all of that then, is for Trump's political purposes, 80 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,440 S2: which seems to be the only thing that concerns him. 81 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,760 S2: When I call him a sociopath, I mean by that, 82 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:07,720 S2: that he's a person who doesn't seem to take the 83 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,160 S2: existence of other people seriously. Yeah. When the expressions of 84 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,200 S2: concern to him over the American soldiers who had died 85 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:19,280 S2: in this war. Oh, gosh, he seemed completely uninterested and 86 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,480 S2: merely remarked that that's what happens in wars. 87 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,920 S4: The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and 88 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:30,840 S4: we may have casualties. That often happens in war. But 89 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,800 S4: we're doing this not for now. We're doing this for. 90 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,080 S2: There seems to be a complete lack of empathy, even 91 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:40,040 S2: pretending empathy or sympathy for the dead and wounded that 92 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,560 S2: he is. He is responsible for ultimately. I mean, the 93 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,800 S2: Iranians killed them, but they were there in in prosecution 94 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:50,120 S2: of Trump's war. So the only thing that he does 95 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:53,430 S2: seem to matter to him are two things. The share market, 96 00:05:53,430 --> 00:05:57,110 S2: Wall Street and what's happening in the markets. And as a. 97 00:05:57,150 --> 00:06:00,789 S2: Some sort of wealth barometer, I suppose. And second, his 98 00:06:00,790 --> 00:06:06,270 S2: political stakes, his political fortunes. And they have come under 99 00:06:06,270 --> 00:06:10,789 S2: increased strain because of this war. And the strain is 100 00:06:10,790 --> 00:06:13,030 S2: showing inside the Maga movement itself. 101 00:06:13,350 --> 00:06:15,990 S1: And I guess a really notable one happened just about 102 00:06:16,029 --> 00:06:19,150 S1: 8 or 10 hours before. We're recording this on Wednesday morning, 103 00:06:19,390 --> 00:06:24,469 S1: and that's that Trump's counterterrorism chief, Joe Kent, has quit. 104 00:06:24,470 --> 00:06:27,150 S1: And not only has he quit, but he has lobbed 105 00:06:27,150 --> 00:06:31,070 S1: some really damning accusations against Trump with regards to his 106 00:06:31,070 --> 00:06:35,109 S1: decision to pursue this war. So tell us what he said. 107 00:06:35,150 --> 00:06:37,950 S1: And yeah, whether you think this could actually hurt Trump politically. 108 00:06:38,589 --> 00:06:43,190 S2: Yes. The resignation of Joe Kent, terrorism chief, is the 109 00:06:43,190 --> 00:06:46,990 S2: first high level Maga official that Trump had appointed, who 110 00:06:46,990 --> 00:06:50,740 S2: has now quit in a state of protest at Trump. 111 00:06:51,420 --> 00:06:53,100 S2: Mind you, he didn't do it at the outset of 112 00:06:53,100 --> 00:06:55,219 S2: the war. He's waited two and a half weeks. So 113 00:06:55,260 --> 00:06:57,900 S2: if you like, he's a weather vane that indicates which 114 00:06:57,900 --> 00:06:59,820 S2: way the political wind is blowing. And the fact that 115 00:06:59,860 --> 00:07:04,260 S2: in Maga it's blowing, it's increasingly against Trump. He accused 116 00:07:04,260 --> 00:07:08,020 S2: Trump of, first of all, running into this war simply 117 00:07:08,020 --> 00:07:12,220 S2: because the Israelis wanted it, which has instantly been branded 118 00:07:12,220 --> 00:07:16,740 S2: as anti-Semitic. So that's another dispute, another divide. A lot 119 00:07:16,740 --> 00:07:20,420 S2: of the Maga people are anti-Israel, and a lot of 120 00:07:20,420 --> 00:07:23,700 S2: the Maga people have taken had already formed the view 121 00:07:23,740 --> 00:07:27,100 S2: that Trump was gulled into this war by Netanyahu, the 122 00:07:27,100 --> 00:07:31,020 S2: prime minister of Israel. And there was that was fueled 123 00:07:31,020 --> 00:07:34,100 S2: a little, at least, by Netanyahu. He said he'd brought. 124 00:07:34,620 --> 00:07:36,100 S2: At the beginning of the war, he said he had 125 00:07:36,100 --> 00:07:38,900 S2: brought Trump brought America into the war. That's right. Which 126 00:07:38,900 --> 00:07:43,860 S2: Trump resisted and said no. If anything, I forced Israel's hand. 127 00:07:43,860 --> 00:07:45,660 S2: So that's a point of contention. But it does give 128 00:07:45,660 --> 00:07:48,300 S2: enough ammunition to the people who want to criticize him 129 00:07:48,420 --> 00:07:52,300 S2: within the Maga movement as being some puppet of Netanyahu, which. 130 00:07:52,340 --> 00:07:55,340 S2: Cairns picked up on. But Cairns gone further and said 131 00:07:55,340 --> 00:07:57,780 S2: that the country has been lied to. That there was 132 00:07:57,780 --> 00:08:01,660 S2: never any threat, no imminent threat to the US from Iran. 133 00:08:02,020 --> 00:08:03,300 S2: This is really damaging. 134 00:08:03,580 --> 00:08:05,340 S1: I mean, that's sort of the killer blow in his 135 00:08:05,340 --> 00:08:07,540 S1: resignation letter, right? I don't know how much damage it's 136 00:08:07,540 --> 00:08:09,220 S1: going to cause, but tell us why that is such 137 00:08:09,220 --> 00:08:09,860 S1: a big deal. 138 00:08:10,580 --> 00:08:13,620 S2: Because it means the war is not being fought for 139 00:08:14,380 --> 00:08:19,020 S2: any legitimate national purpose. It still leaves open the option 140 00:08:19,020 --> 00:08:22,300 S2: that Trump has gone to war, as he'd originally claimed, 141 00:08:22,500 --> 00:08:26,180 S2: to support the protest movement in Iran, that he was 142 00:08:26,180 --> 00:08:30,540 S2: doing it in pursuit of regime change, which he sometimes 143 00:08:30,540 --> 00:08:33,660 S2: returns to that and sometimes doesn't. But to suggest that 144 00:08:33,660 --> 00:08:37,460 S2: he would go to war at this scale and with 145 00:08:37,460 --> 00:08:42,100 S2: these consequences for this long, just to support the protest 146 00:08:42,100 --> 00:08:45,820 S2: movement in Iran doesn't satisfy the Maga movement. Whatever happened 147 00:08:45,820 --> 00:08:48,970 S2: to America first is what they want to know. So 148 00:08:48,970 --> 00:08:51,370 S2: for Kent to say that there was no imminent threat, 149 00:08:51,370 --> 00:08:55,010 S2: that the country has been lied to, effectively calling Trump 150 00:08:55,050 --> 00:09:00,449 S2: the liar is damaging. And of course, it's consonant with 151 00:09:00,570 --> 00:09:02,650 S2: many of the facts as we see them. 152 00:09:03,850 --> 00:09:07,970 S1: After the break. Is this going to be a forever war, Peter? 153 00:09:08,809 --> 00:09:09,730 S2: I doubt it. 154 00:09:09,970 --> 00:09:10,370 S1: Why? 155 00:09:10,570 --> 00:09:11,650 S2: Well, there are two things. 156 00:09:17,850 --> 00:09:20,490 S1: Your column that just came out on Tuesday. This is just, 157 00:09:20,530 --> 00:09:23,210 S1: of course, one day before we're recording this. You know, 158 00:09:23,250 --> 00:09:25,730 S1: you argued that there are still very clear winners in 159 00:09:25,730 --> 00:09:28,970 S1: this war. Who are these winners and does this still 160 00:09:28,970 --> 00:09:31,690 S1: stand today? Because of course, this changes day by day. 161 00:09:32,290 --> 00:09:34,770 S2: Well, looking at the two main combatants, it's difficult to 162 00:09:34,809 --> 00:09:38,610 S2: say either of them is winning. The Iranian regime may 163 00:09:38,610 --> 00:09:42,689 S2: still be standing. The ayatollah is dead. Long live the Ayatollah. 164 00:09:42,730 --> 00:09:45,560 S2: His son simply taken over and the regime is in place, 165 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,480 S2: with no real sign yet of it cracking. There are 166 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:51,240 S2: some internal dissent, but its grip on power isn't cracking 167 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,800 S2: and it is being hit and hit hard. It will 168 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,920 S2: be at the end of this a diminished, weakened country, 169 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,720 S2: a poorer country. So it is suffering. There's absolutely no question. 170 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,839 S2: But is America winning? You can't say America is winning 171 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:10,600 S2: with this economic war, this petrol and inflation war that 172 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:14,480 S2: they're now suffering with the loss of not only some 173 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,320 S2: of their service people, but an enormous stockpile of munitions 174 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:22,920 S2: being sacrificed. The first two days cost 11 billion USD plus, 175 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,640 S2: according to the Pentagon, and that was now two and 176 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,520 S2: a half weeks into this war. So it's hard to 177 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:33,680 S2: see that the US is actually winning. And if the 178 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:38,280 S2: nuclear capability of the regime was the target of Trump's 179 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,760 S2: original intention, which was one of the many and varied 180 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,830 S2: explanations he's given, then he has yet to explain why 181 00:10:45,950 --> 00:10:49,830 S2: the US has not yet attacked those facilities, or tried 182 00:10:49,830 --> 00:10:52,990 S2: to seize the estimated 400 kilos of enriched uranium that 183 00:10:52,990 --> 00:10:57,709 S2: the Iranian regime has. So it's hard to see that 184 00:10:57,710 --> 00:11:00,310 S2: either of them is winning. But that doesn't mean that 185 00:11:00,309 --> 00:11:02,990 S2: no country is winning. And my point, Samantha, was to 186 00:11:03,030 --> 00:11:06,429 S2: say that in the constellation of global power, which is affected, 187 00:11:06,429 --> 00:11:10,030 S2: whenever there's one big shift like this, it redistributes power 188 00:11:10,030 --> 00:11:12,830 S2: around the world. And that's what we see. And I'm 189 00:11:13,230 --> 00:11:17,030 S2: I'm positing that there are three principal winners so far 190 00:11:17,030 --> 00:11:20,750 S2: from this. One is Israel, which gets the US support 191 00:11:20,750 --> 00:11:23,670 S2: in this war to conduct a war against Iran and 192 00:11:23,670 --> 00:11:26,230 S2: now against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. 193 00:11:26,550 --> 00:11:28,550 S1: Which, of course, we know Netanyahu has wanted to do 194 00:11:28,550 --> 00:11:30,390 S1: both for a very long time. Yes. 195 00:11:30,429 --> 00:11:35,309 S2: Yeah. Very popular among Israeli Jews. We saw a poll 196 00:11:35,309 --> 00:11:40,270 S2: this week that said 93% support this war that Netanyahu 197 00:11:40,270 --> 00:11:45,940 S2: is prosecuting against Iran. and 82% amongst the Israeli population 198 00:11:45,940 --> 00:11:48,580 S2: as a whole. So it's hugely popular. It's working for 199 00:11:48,580 --> 00:11:51,780 S2: Netanyahu politically, who faces a. He faces an election later 200 00:11:51,780 --> 00:11:55,380 S2: this year. It's doing a lot of damage to the 201 00:11:55,380 --> 00:11:59,620 S2: principal enemy, the strongest and most important enemy of Israel. 202 00:12:00,540 --> 00:12:03,100 S2: And he gets political cover from the US as well 203 00:12:03,100 --> 00:12:06,500 S2: as military support. So it's a big win for Israel. Yeah. 204 00:12:06,940 --> 00:12:11,059 S2: The next one I would suggest is Russia. Russia wins 205 00:12:11,059 --> 00:12:15,500 S2: from this war. Putin gets a large bonus for the 206 00:12:15,500 --> 00:12:18,739 S2: funding of his war chest out of this oil crisis, 207 00:12:19,380 --> 00:12:21,660 S2: because first, the price of oil has gone up by 208 00:12:21,660 --> 00:12:24,780 S2: more than 40% since the war began. But secondly, because 209 00:12:24,820 --> 00:12:28,339 S2: Trump has allowed a relaxation of sanctions against Russia, which 210 00:12:28,340 --> 00:12:31,740 S2: has now allowed Russia to ship more oil. There's an 211 00:12:31,740 --> 00:12:36,380 S2: oil and trading information company, Cipla, which estimates that directly 212 00:12:36,380 --> 00:12:40,350 S2: into the Russian government's coffers, there's an extra 150 million 213 00:12:40,630 --> 00:12:44,339 S2: USD flowing per day that this war is running. So 214 00:12:44,340 --> 00:12:46,060 S2: over the course of a month, they estimate it would 215 00:12:46,059 --> 00:12:48,940 S2: be between about three and a half and 5 billion USD. 216 00:12:49,500 --> 00:12:54,820 S2: Pure unearned bonus for for Vladimir Putin at the same time. 217 00:12:54,860 --> 00:12:57,740 S2: Of course, this diminishes the stock of weapons available for 218 00:12:57,740 --> 00:13:01,180 S2: the Ukrainians to get. Trump doesn't give them any. But 219 00:13:01,179 --> 00:13:04,140 S2: the Europeans buy them from the US and supply them 220 00:13:04,140 --> 00:13:07,780 S2: onto Ukraine. Well, Trump is now eating up so many 221 00:13:07,780 --> 00:13:11,900 S2: of those munitions. Which now brings us to the third 222 00:13:12,380 --> 00:13:16,700 S2: the third winner. And that is China, because Trump is 223 00:13:16,700 --> 00:13:21,060 S2: doing a number of things that support China tremendously. Just 224 00:13:21,100 --> 00:13:24,219 S2: on that last one, the munitions stock. So Trump has 225 00:13:24,220 --> 00:13:29,140 S2: been transferring military assets out of the Indo-Pacific to the 226 00:13:29,140 --> 00:13:32,500 S2: Middle East to support this war. The second category of 227 00:13:32,540 --> 00:13:36,540 S2: material that Trump is moving out of the Indo-Pacific are 228 00:13:36,660 --> 00:13:40,610 S2: missiles and missile batteries and air defense systems. He's moved 229 00:13:40,610 --> 00:13:43,090 S2: them out of Japan and moved them out of South 230 00:13:43,090 --> 00:13:46,850 S2: Korea to the Middle East again. Weakening the defenses of 231 00:13:46,850 --> 00:13:50,010 S2: the US and its allies, or the countries that formerly 232 00:13:50,050 --> 00:13:54,490 S2: were considered to be allies in the Indo Pacific. And 233 00:13:54,610 --> 00:13:58,290 S2: at the same time, all of the political attention, as 234 00:13:58,290 --> 00:14:00,850 S2: well as the military effort of the US, is concentrated 235 00:14:00,850 --> 00:14:03,410 S2: in this Middle Eastern war from which Trump will emerge 236 00:14:03,410 --> 00:14:08,410 S2: with much depleted stockpiles of munitions. Now, if you're XI Jinping, 237 00:14:08,929 --> 00:14:11,570 S2: this is looking like an America that is very distracted 238 00:14:11,570 --> 00:14:14,929 S2: and that is offering you an opportunity, should you wish 239 00:14:14,929 --> 00:14:17,730 S2: to take it, of more freedom to move in the 240 00:14:17,730 --> 00:14:22,570 S2: Indo-Pacific than the than China has had for years. Then 241 00:14:22,730 --> 00:14:27,250 S2: we come to a point that Mick Ryan, a well-known 242 00:14:27,250 --> 00:14:30,770 S2: military strategist, former Australian major general, has made to me 243 00:14:30,770 --> 00:14:33,930 S2: that Trump was supposed to be having a meeting with 244 00:14:33,930 --> 00:14:36,890 S2: XI Jinping at the end of this month that's now 245 00:14:36,890 --> 00:14:38,560 S2: been postponed because of the war? 246 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,080 S1: Yes, but at Trump's request. 247 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,640 S2: At Trump's request. But Mick Ryan's point is at that 248 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,760 S2: meeting with all of this going on and all of 249 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:48,840 S2: these advantages falling China's way. XI Jinping will be looking 250 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,520 S2: into Donald Trump's eyes, as disconcerting and experience as that 251 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,320 S2: may be for most people. And wanting to ask this question, 252 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,760 S2: is this man going to fight China? If I take 253 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:03,680 S2: action to either to to claim Taiwan or to claim 254 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,560 S2: more territory in the South China Sea, or to start 255 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:10,600 S2: an incident with one of its neighbors, Japan, the Philippines, 256 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:11,640 S2: whom it's pressuring. 257 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,160 S1: Which I guess just to wrap up, Peter brings us 258 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,040 S1: back to the United States. As you've mentioned before, we 259 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,160 S1: know that Donald Trump, he campaigned on this vow, you know, 260 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:24,040 S1: no more forever wars. But it would seem that Trump's 261 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:26,560 S1: window for pulling back from this war and being able 262 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,960 S1: to declare victory. It seems like that window is over. 263 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,360 S1: So is the United States. Does it look like it's 264 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,990 S1: likely that it is becoming embroiled in a forever war 265 00:15:35,990 --> 00:15:40,630 S1: because it's expanded, right? The targets keep expanding. Iran's hit, 266 00:15:40,710 --> 00:15:44,470 S1: I imagine, more than 13 countries now. You've got an 267 00:15:44,470 --> 00:15:48,150 S1: airport in the UAE, which which has been hit. So 268 00:15:48,190 --> 00:15:51,150 S1: this really is expanding. You know, Europeans are being pressured 269 00:15:51,150 --> 00:15:55,150 S1: to join. Obviously, NATO has said no, but I don't 270 00:15:55,150 --> 00:15:57,110 S1: know how long they'll be able to say no for. 271 00:15:57,110 --> 00:16:00,310 S1: So is this going to be a forever war? Peter. 272 00:16:01,190 --> 00:16:02,070 S2: I doubt it. 273 00:16:02,230 --> 00:16:03,270 S1: Uh, why? 274 00:16:03,310 --> 00:16:07,030 S2: Well, there are two things. First, your point about declaring victory. 275 00:16:07,030 --> 00:16:10,430 S2: There are still possibilities of being able to declare victory. 276 00:16:10,470 --> 00:16:14,150 S2: Who knows what's next? If the regime cracks, he can 277 00:16:14,150 --> 00:16:19,430 S2: declare victory. If the Israelis or the Americans manage to 278 00:16:19,470 --> 00:16:24,790 S2: inflict serious damage on the nuclear development facilities of Iran, 279 00:16:25,030 --> 00:16:28,910 S2: even though Trump claimed he'd obliterated them last June, then 280 00:16:28,910 --> 00:16:32,910 S2: he may be able to claim victory. Out of that, 281 00:16:33,590 --> 00:16:37,620 S2: he may redefine victory and simply say, we've destroyed their 282 00:16:37,620 --> 00:16:40,940 S2: navy and all of their missile launchers. Therefore that's victory 283 00:16:40,940 --> 00:16:44,900 S2: and pull out so those options remain open to him. 284 00:16:45,020 --> 00:16:46,740 S2: But on the other side of it, which is the 285 00:16:46,740 --> 00:16:49,860 S2: ability to continue the war, I don't think it's a 286 00:16:49,860 --> 00:16:55,180 S2: forever war because politically, well, the allies politically, it's very 287 00:16:55,180 --> 00:16:57,780 S2: popular for the allies to stay out of this war, 288 00:16:57,780 --> 00:17:00,020 S2: which they didn't start, weren't consulted on and have no 289 00:17:00,020 --> 00:17:05,740 S2: interest in joining. But second, the the pressure on inflation, prices, 290 00:17:05,740 --> 00:17:10,140 S2: gasoline and petrol prices in America makes it politically difficult 291 00:17:10,140 --> 00:17:13,780 S2: and economically damaging. It's the it's a measurable. It's a 292 00:17:13,780 --> 00:17:17,420 S2: tangible economic harm that will become more evident and more 293 00:17:17,420 --> 00:17:19,940 S2: painful as the weeks go by. Plus, at some point 294 00:17:19,940 --> 00:17:22,660 S2: the US runs out of munitions. It doesn't have an info. 295 00:17:22,700 --> 00:17:25,500 S2: Trump has declared the opposite, but it does not have 296 00:17:25,500 --> 00:17:27,740 S2: an infinite supply of missiles. 297 00:17:27,780 --> 00:17:29,460 S1: It'd be able to go for a while though, right? 298 00:17:29,619 --> 00:17:35,139 S2: Well, we don't know exactly, but experts say depending on 299 00:17:35,140 --> 00:17:38,260 S2: the munition, that they have weeks rather than months at 300 00:17:38,260 --> 00:17:42,700 S2: this rate. Wow. At this rate. And they're already apportioning 301 00:17:42,700 --> 00:17:46,500 S2: them from other parts of of the planet. So and 302 00:17:46,500 --> 00:17:50,420 S2: Trump's been urging the US defense contractors to accelerate the 303 00:17:50,420 --> 00:17:52,660 S2: pace of output. So it's straining their supply. 304 00:17:52,940 --> 00:17:53,380 S1: Wow. 305 00:17:53,420 --> 00:17:55,540 S2: So for all those reasons I think this is going 306 00:17:55,580 --> 00:17:58,340 S2: to be a shorter war than a forever war. 307 00:17:58,740 --> 00:18:01,500 S1: Okay. Well it is such a fast moving space. So 308 00:18:01,500 --> 00:18:03,340 S1: much has even happened since you last wrote about this. 309 00:18:03,340 --> 00:18:04,899 S1: And that was only a couple of days ago. 310 00:18:05,780 --> 00:18:06,660 S2: Indeed. 311 00:18:06,700 --> 00:18:08,580 S1: So we are so lucky to have you on weekly 312 00:18:08,580 --> 00:18:09,980 S1: because God knows what will be happening. 313 00:18:10,020 --> 00:18:12,419 S2: It's a dizzying pace. That's right. And it's always a 314 00:18:12,420 --> 00:18:14,580 S2: pleasure to talk these things through with you, Samantha. 315 00:18:14,619 --> 00:18:24,940 S1: Thanks, Peter. In other news today, the response of China, 316 00:18:24,980 --> 00:18:28,300 S1: Australia's largest single supplier of jet fuel to the war 317 00:18:28,300 --> 00:18:31,369 S1: with Iran, has put a question mark over future fuel 318 00:18:31,369 --> 00:18:35,570 S1: supplies for the nation's aviation sector, a radical option to 319 00:18:35,609 --> 00:18:39,890 S1: shutter tobacconists and sell cigarettes only in places like supermarkets 320 00:18:39,890 --> 00:18:42,649 S1: has been put on the agenda by the Albanese government, 321 00:18:42,650 --> 00:18:45,610 S1: as it reveals new laws to rein in the runaway 322 00:18:45,609 --> 00:18:50,170 S1: black market. And lastly, whether you're a cheese fiend, spice 323 00:18:50,210 --> 00:18:53,770 S1: Meister or just like yours, vinegary experts at good food, 324 00:18:53,850 --> 00:18:57,250 S1: taste and rate all the crisps that matter. You can 325 00:18:57,250 --> 00:19:05,290 S1: read more at the age.com or smh.com.au. Today's episode was 326 00:19:05,290 --> 00:19:09,210 S1: produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, 327 00:19:09,210 --> 00:19:13,090 S1: and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. 328 00:19:13,690 --> 00:19:16,450 S1: If you like our show, follow The Morning Edition and 329 00:19:16,450 --> 00:19:19,770 S1: leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks 330 00:19:19,770 --> 00:19:20,570 S1: for listening.