Speaker 1: Well, unfortunately we're hearing about this a lot in the
Speaker 1: news every single day, not just in New South Wales,
Speaker 1: but right across the country for the most part, regional
Speaker 1: areas allegedly terrorized by groups of teenagers where once we
Speaker 1: used to hear about kids getting up to the old mischief,
Speaker 1: you know, vandalism, graffiti, bit of shoplifting. Certainly there were
Speaker 1: gang wars between teenagers back in the days, we know that,
Speaker 1: but it was usually fisticuffs. It seems like these days
Speaker 1: where often hearing about youth crimes involving serious assaults with
Speaker 1: weapons for example. And the most recent case, of course
Speaker 1: in New South Wales that's been shocking everyone is a
Speaker 1: fourteen year old charged not convicted with rape in company
Speaker 1: with other teenagers. That case, of course will be born
Speaker 1: out in court, but it made me wonder, if there's
Speaker 1: not more youth crime, is it more serious and if
Speaker 1: so why. Jackie Fitzgerald is the executive director of the
Speaker 1: New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Thanks
Speaker 1: for your time, Jackie.
Speaker 2: Hi there, Bill.
Speaker 1: Well, firstly, let's deal with the frequency thing and get
Speaker 1: that out of the way if we can. In your
Speaker 1: observations of the data how frequent is youth crime generally
Speaker 1: compared to previous generations or is it more about how
Speaker 1: we're processing it.
Speaker 2: Look, I know it doesn't feel like this bill, but
Speaker 2: there's actually much less to youth crime in the present
Speaker 2: day than there was, say, fifteen years ago, and we've
Speaker 2: got a number of sources for that. So primarily we're
Speaker 2: looking at police recorded incidents and the number of charges
Speaker 2: police are laying against young people. And if we compare
Speaker 2: the current year versus the high point is actually around
Speaker 2: twenty two thousand and eight. If we compare the change
Speaker 2: over those sixteen year periods, we're looking at about a
Speaker 2: thirty percent decline in the number of young people who
Speaker 2: are brought to court Biden, New South Wales Police, and
Speaker 2: we can also see those figures burning out in the
Speaker 2: court appearances themselves. And also if we look at the
Speaker 2: custody Figures Bill, we've got about half as many young
Speaker 2: people in custody at the present day than we did
Speaker 2: in two thousand and eight. So really young people today
Speaker 2: are offending at a much lower rate than they were
Speaker 2: fifteen or sixteen years ago. And I know it doesn't
Speaker 2: always feel like that, and there's always these horrible crime stories,
Speaker 2: and you know, I don't want to defend those in
Speaker 2: any way or stretch of the imagination, but it is
Speaker 2: the case that young people these days are less less
Speaker 2: inclined to get involved in crime than they were a
Speaker 2: generation ago.
Speaker 1: And of course you've just told us about custodial figures there,
Speaker 1: So anyone who's getting a bit cynical and thinks they're
Speaker 1: just hiding the figures, it's pretty hard to hide that.
Speaker 1: If anyone's actually been charged and arrested, then all that's recorded.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no question that police are very cognizant of
Speaker 2: the concerns about youth crime. And I don't think anyone
Speaker 2: is accusing yourselfile's police going soft on youth crime. So
Speaker 2: we're really taking their figures and looking at how many
Speaker 2: young people they are charging or they can also caution
Speaker 2: a young person, and all of the metrics suggest to decline.
Speaker 2: And you know, even if we look at the crime rates,
Speaker 2: actually most of our crimes have also declined. It is
Speaker 2: the case Bill that over a person's life, they are
Speaker 2: more likely to be involved in crime in that kind
Speaker 2: of late adolescent time than at any other point in
Speaker 2: your life. So if you imagine that kind of risk
Speaker 2: taking behavior that you imagine even some of your listeners
Speaker 2: look back on certain behaviors that they engaged in as
Speaker 2: a child. I wouldn't dream of doing that now. But
Speaker 2: it's still the case that over your life course, you're
Speaker 2: more likely to be involved in crime at a young
Speaker 2: age than at any other time. But what we're finding
Speaker 2: is that fewer young people these days are involved in crime,
Speaker 2: even though it still is the time of your life
Speaker 2: that you're most likely to be involved in crime. If
Speaker 2: that's the path you go.
Speaker 1: Down, So we'll go to the next obvious question then, Jackie,
Speaker 1: and that's great news. Is that, Okay, if we're seeing
Speaker 1: fewer offenders, are these fewer offenders actually committing more serious crimes?
Speaker 1: Do you have any stats that waigh that up?
Speaker 2: The crime bit is higher than it was sixteen years ago?
Speaker 2: Is car theft? So if we compare the rates of
Speaker 2: car theft and also young people proceeded against the car
Speaker 2: theft now it's about fifty percent higher than in two
Speaker 2: thousand and eight. So that's the offense that really is
Speaker 2: jumping out, and that increase has happened kind of post
Speaker 2: COVID really, so two thousand and one twenty and twenty
Speaker 2: twenty one, twenty twenty two, we started to see this
Speaker 2: increase in car theft and that is associated with an
Speaker 2: increase in young people's offending. So that's the defense that
Speaker 2: is fucking this general decline. But other offenses that I
Speaker 2: know are in the public eye that people are concerned about,
Speaker 2: and I guess breaking entry is one of the ones
Speaker 2: that jumps out there. We're still seeing break in rates
Speaker 2: that are much lower than they were historically, and things
Speaker 2: like a robbery is another very concerning offense. So there's
Speaker 2: a violent theft defense with concerning offense. Yes, that is
Speaker 2: much less common than it was, so about half as
Speaker 2: common for young people to participate in robbery than they
Speaker 2: once were, and we're not seeing any evidence of an
Speaker 2: upstick there. So I think it is true that this
Speaker 2: half theft is probably the problematic offense, and hopefully there's
Speaker 2: something of a trend there that will die away, because
Speaker 2: we are seeing some some places or some parts of
Speaker 2: particularly regional New South Wales where car theft increased in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two has since declined, So it's something of
Speaker 2: a temporary popular behavior unfortunately that has a peak and
Speaker 2: then starts to wane and hopefully that's how it goes
Speaker 2: for the rest of the New South Wales.
Speaker 1: This might be harder to measure. I don't know, but
Speaker 1: have you seen any correlation with social media? Obviously that
Speaker 1: has played a role, that's been quite well forgive the term,
Speaker 1: but it is visible literally when we see these crimes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, that increase in car theft is it does
Speaker 2: definitely seems to be associated with people posting about their
Speaker 2: offending and really are some quite I guess bragging about
Speaker 2: their exploits on social media. That seems to be a
Speaker 2: factor in that car theft increase. So the government have
Speaker 2: legislated to outlaw posting those kind of of videos. We
Speaker 2: still haven't seen a huge volume of charges under that
Speaker 2: particular legislation, but you know, hopefully that will help turn
Speaker 2: the tide. But I think that is a real problem
Speaker 2: and one of the reasons why we have seen an
Speaker 2: uptick in that particular offense. So some other offenses possibly
Speaker 2: aren't as you don't get as much credibility or bragging
Speaker 2: rights if you post about your shop lifting or something
Speaker 2: as some other more minor offenses.
Speaker 1: One more quick question before I let you go, and
Speaker 1: that is recidivism. Are we seeing many repeat offenders now
Speaker 1: or is that basically as it always has been.
Speaker 2: I think Bill, the issue is that there's a lot
Speaker 2: of young people that maybe once would have got involved
Speaker 2: in crime, but are not are not now. They're engaged
Speaker 2: in other pursuits, and often indoor pursuits. We know that
Speaker 2: young people pretty attracted to the gaming console, my children are,
Speaker 2: and that's you know, for all the harms associated with that,
Speaker 2: there is possibly a protective element in terms of antisocial behavior.
Speaker 2: But those kids that do get involved in the criminal
Speaker 2: justice system, they do reoffend, unfortunately, and young people do
Speaker 2: have those few young people that are in the criminal
Speaker 2: justice system do have high rates of reoffending, so we
Speaker 2: haven't seen a lot of benefit there. But we are
Speaker 2: talking about a smaller cohort than in previous times, so
Speaker 2: that's you know, there's some complexity in the picture.
Speaker 1: But that's generally very comforting news. Jackie Fitzgerald, thank you
Speaker 1: so much for your time.
Speaker 2: Thanks Bill,