1 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,640 S1: How can we make heads or tails of where the 2 00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:09,799 S1: Iran war is headed and when it might end? When 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:14,240 S1: Donald Trump changes his strategy with whiplash speed, one minute 4 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,439 S1: the American president says he'll drop more bombs on Iran. 5 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,400 S1: Just for fun. The next, he decides to lift sanctions 6 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,800 S1: on Iranian oil and says that he's having productive negotiations 7 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:30,520 S1: with his enemy. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and you're listening 8 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:33,160 S1: to The Morning Edition from the Age and The Sydney 9 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:38,680 S1: Morning Herald today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher on 10 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,640 S1: whether this war will lead us all into a recession. 11 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,960 S1: And what Trump said the other day that reveals how 12 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:49,400 S1: much political trouble he's now in. It's March the 26th. 13 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:53,159 S1: Welcome back, Peter. 14 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,200 S2: It's a pleasure to be here, Samantha. 15 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,960 S1: Okay. Can you just start off by, I guess, getting 16 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,900 S1: us up to speed with how? Out of control this 17 00:01:00,900 --> 00:01:03,820 S1: war has become. Since Donald Trump said that he was 18 00:01:03,820 --> 00:01:08,100 S1: confident of defeating the Islamic Republic in four days, according 19 00:01:08,140 --> 00:01:09,220 S1: to a recent report. 20 00:01:09,780 --> 00:01:12,460 S2: Yes, his four day outing, which he at one point 21 00:01:12,459 --> 00:01:17,940 S2: called an excursion now into its fourth week, went from 22 00:01:17,940 --> 00:01:21,380 S2: being what he thought would be an easy toppling of 23 00:01:21,380 --> 00:01:25,900 S2: the regime and an easy conquering of Iran has now 24 00:01:25,940 --> 00:01:31,180 S2: turned into, well, at the economic level, the greatest disruption 25 00:01:31,180 --> 00:01:34,980 S2: of global oil supply that the world has seen, which 26 00:01:34,980 --> 00:01:41,100 S2: is cascading through economies everywhere, pushing up prices and therefore inflation, 27 00:01:41,100 --> 00:01:46,620 S2: but also leading to the concern that this burst of 28 00:01:46,620 --> 00:01:50,580 S2: inflation could be followed by an economic downturn, perhaps a 29 00:01:50,580 --> 00:01:55,220 S2: global recession. While in the meantime the Israelis have continued 30 00:01:55,260 --> 00:02:00,160 S2: the assault, of course, on Iran, but equally because Hezbollah, 31 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:05,880 S2: the Iranian sponsored terrorist militia in southern Lebanon, had started 32 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,600 S2: firing missiles at Israel. So Israel took the opportunity to 33 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,040 S2: launch a major war against Hezbollah and is now in 34 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,959 S2: the process of clearing about a 30 kilometer wide buffer 35 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,500 S2: or deep buffer zone, into southern Lebanon. And almost a 36 00:02:21,500 --> 00:02:25,200 S2: million people have been relocated to take them out of 37 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,760 S2: the out of the fire zone. And at the same time, 38 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,280 S2: the Iranians struck out in in what I've called a doomsday, 39 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:38,639 S2: retaliatory series of strikes where they've essentially just hit everything 40 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:43,280 S2: and anything that not only belongs to Israel or bases 41 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:47,000 S2: that belong and other assets belong to the US, but 42 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:52,160 S2: also at their Gulf Arab neighbors, damaging some Gulf Arab 43 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:56,079 S2: oil production in the process. And that's at the end 44 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:01,220 S2: of this conflict, the world will continue to feel the effects, 45 00:03:01,980 --> 00:03:09,260 S2: largely based on whether more oil production infrastructure is destroyed 46 00:03:09,260 --> 00:03:12,899 S2: both in Iran and in the Gulf states. And what 47 00:03:12,900 --> 00:03:16,740 S2: happens to the control of the Strait of Hormuz? Donald 48 00:03:16,740 --> 00:03:18,980 S2: Trump has made the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, 49 00:03:18,980 --> 00:03:21,980 S2: which the Iranians have closed, to inflict maximum economic damage 50 00:03:21,980 --> 00:03:26,220 S2: on the world as one of his primary goals. The 51 00:03:26,220 --> 00:03:28,299 S2: Iranians say they're not going to relinquish that now. They're 52 00:03:28,300 --> 00:03:31,820 S2: going to keep that as a permanent chokepoint and exercise 53 00:03:31,820 --> 00:03:37,820 S2: control at their leisure. But we don't really know what 54 00:03:38,260 --> 00:03:45,260 S2: Donald Trump's purpose is because it changes sometimes hourly. He 55 00:03:45,260 --> 00:03:47,780 S2: started out by saying in January that he only wanted 56 00:03:47,780 --> 00:03:51,700 S2: freedom for the Iranian people, and then he's escalated and 57 00:03:51,700 --> 00:03:55,800 S2: de-escalated through all sorts of. There's a columnist at the 58 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,120 S2: Financial Times in London, Edward Lewis, who describes it as 59 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:04,960 S2: the Trump Armageddon taco or taco Shuffle, meaning he shuffles 60 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:09,080 S2: between threatening Armageddon to Taco, and Taco being the acronym 61 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:12,680 S2: for Trump Always Chickens Out, which was coined months ago 62 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:18,080 S2: by another Ft columnist, Robert Armstrong. So in between, for example, 63 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:22,560 S2: last week, on Friday US time, Trump said that he 64 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,240 S2: was going to give the Iranians 48 hours to totally 65 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,839 S2: open the Straits of Hormuz, or they would be devastated 66 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,640 S2: and he would wipe out obliterate all their power plants 67 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:36,200 S2: and they'd have zero electricity. The very next day, the 68 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,920 S2: very next day, Saturday US time. He then announced that 69 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:43,279 S2: they were having productive talks with the Iranians and gave 70 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:47,520 S2: them five days to reach a negotiated settlement. But of course, 71 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,799 S2: the Iranians claim that there were no talks and still 72 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,880 S2: remain no talks of substance between the two countries anyway. 73 00:04:54,740 --> 00:04:57,940 S2: So what is his aim and purpose in the fourth 74 00:04:57,940 --> 00:05:00,260 S2: week of the war? We still don't know. And he 75 00:05:00,300 --> 00:05:04,620 S2: is still trying to find a mechanism for negotiating with 76 00:05:04,620 --> 00:05:07,900 S2: the Iranians, and he's still trying to find more to 77 00:05:07,940 --> 00:05:11,659 S2: the point, I suppose. For the global economy, he's still 78 00:05:11,660 --> 00:05:14,339 S2: trying to find a way of dealing with the oil 79 00:05:14,339 --> 00:05:19,900 S2: shipment problem, something which he obviously failed to plan for. 80 00:05:20,460 --> 00:05:22,820 S2: And the final thing I'd add is that while on 81 00:05:22,820 --> 00:05:26,339 S2: the one hand, we have this taco attempt by Trump 82 00:05:26,339 --> 00:05:31,140 S2: at negotiating, we also have another Armageddon type scenario developing, 83 00:05:31,140 --> 00:05:33,940 S2: which is we have now a group of a constellation 84 00:05:33,940 --> 00:05:38,780 S2: of US forces heading towards the Middle East. We have 85 00:05:39,300 --> 00:05:43,900 S2: a Marine expeditionary force of around 3000 US Marines being 86 00:05:43,900 --> 00:05:48,460 S2: relocated from their base in Japan, as well as airborne 87 00:05:48,500 --> 00:05:52,420 S2: paratroopers heading to the Middle East. The Pentagon says it's 88 00:05:52,420 --> 00:05:57,400 S2: simply giving the commander in Chief options for possible future developments. 89 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,719 S2: But we don't know. I mean, does Trump know? Lord knows. 90 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:06,000 S2: But it does create the potential that Trump could deploy 91 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,040 S2: those troops, most of which should be in place by 92 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,880 S2: the end of this week to try to remove some 93 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:16,240 S2: of the Iranian armaments, which allow them to control access 94 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,360 S2: to the Strait of Hormuz, or perhaps to conduct other 95 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:24,320 S2: operations against the Iranians, none of which we are yet 96 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:25,200 S2: advised of. 97 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,240 S1: Wow. And so are you watching all of this and 98 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,320 S1: feeling as I have been, which is that this is 99 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,800 S1: either a already spun out of control or B is 100 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,760 S1: in danger of spinning out of control because we know 101 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:38,720 S1: just with regards to the escalations of what's happening in 102 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:42,159 S1: Iran hitting the Gulf states nearby, that, for instance, a 103 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:46,520 S1: Qatari facility and energy facility was hit recently. And they've said, well, 104 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:48,520 S1: this is going to take 3 to 5 years to fix, 105 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,400 S1: you know. So is this already sort of spinning out 106 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,940 S1: of control. And I guess from the geopolitical perspective, but 107 00:06:54,940 --> 00:06:57,580 S1: also just from the financial perspective, I know that I 108 00:06:57,580 --> 00:07:00,500 S1: saw that there was this expert, Jason Bordoff, and he 109 00:07:00,500 --> 00:07:02,140 S1: told the New York Times the other day, he's the 110 00:07:02,140 --> 00:07:04,940 S1: founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at 111 00:07:04,940 --> 00:07:08,300 S1: Columbia University. And he said, if this goes on, we 112 00:07:08,300 --> 00:07:11,060 S1: haven't seen anything yet in terms of how high energy 113 00:07:11,060 --> 00:07:13,980 S1: prices are going to go. Even if this war goes 114 00:07:13,980 --> 00:07:17,220 S1: for a few weeks longer. So are we just sort 115 00:07:17,220 --> 00:07:19,380 S1: of at a tipping point of things getting really bad 116 00:07:19,420 --> 00:07:21,620 S1: both geopolitically and financially? 117 00:07:22,660 --> 00:07:26,179 S2: It's already way out of control in the conception of 118 00:07:26,180 --> 00:07:28,500 S2: of Donald Trump, as we said. Thought it would be 119 00:07:28,500 --> 00:07:32,420 S2: a four day bit of recreational fun for him. He 120 00:07:32,620 --> 00:07:35,300 S2: has told us that he didn't expect that the Gulf 121 00:07:35,300 --> 00:07:38,180 S2: states would be attacked in such a wanton way by 122 00:07:38,180 --> 00:07:42,580 S2: the Iranians. Thousands of missiles and drones launched at all 123 00:07:42,580 --> 00:07:46,180 S2: the major Gulf states, with the UAE bearing the major brunt. 124 00:07:46,700 --> 00:07:51,600 S2: He certainly didn't expect a global oil crisis, which he, 125 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,400 S2: together with the Iranians, of course, and the Israelis between them, 126 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,800 S2: have successfully engineered. That was not part of the plan, 127 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,960 S2: I'm sure. And this probably helps explain why Trump, between 128 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:07,560 S2: Friday last week and Saturday, completely reversed his course to escalate. 129 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:12,400 S2: And suddenly he's negotiating because it was on Friday that 130 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,280 S2: the US markets, not just the oil price rising, but 131 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,960 S2: the share market took a tumble, taking the cumulative US 132 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,680 S2: share market losses to over 5% since the war began. 133 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:26,760 S2: And that seems to be a sensitive point for Trump. 134 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:31,960 S2: The 5% loss mark also triggered his withdrawal, or at 135 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:37,400 S2: least his his partial mitigation amelioration of his so-called Liberation 136 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:45,320 S2: Day tariffs last year. So it seems that that unplanned consequence, 137 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:52,140 S2: unintended consequence was persuasive in moving him to de-escalate, as 138 00:08:52,140 --> 00:08:53,860 S2: well as the fact, of course, that a lot of 139 00:08:53,860 --> 00:08:58,140 S2: American drivers will be very unhappy at paying higher gasoline prices. 140 00:08:58,420 --> 00:09:01,180 S1: For sure. And really, this brings us to your latest piece, 141 00:09:01,179 --> 00:09:04,780 S1: because you have just written that, you know, finally, we 142 00:09:04,780 --> 00:09:08,300 S1: know that Trump doesn't he simply doesn't know what he's doing. 143 00:09:08,420 --> 00:09:10,820 S1: And I've got to start with one sentence that you 144 00:09:10,820 --> 00:09:12,459 S1: wrote that I must say, sort of made me chuckle, 145 00:09:12,500 --> 00:09:14,579 S1: though this is obviously far from a laughing matter. You 146 00:09:14,580 --> 00:09:17,620 S1: said Trump said he'd been surprised to learn how big 147 00:09:17,660 --> 00:09:22,340 S1: Iran's navy was. Seriously. Unquote. Now you very you very 148 00:09:22,340 --> 00:09:26,340 S1: rarely use sarcasm, Archer. So can I read from this 149 00:09:26,340 --> 00:09:30,620 S1: that you are genuinely surprised by the level of ignorance 150 00:09:30,620 --> 00:09:33,900 S1: on behalf of Donald Trump with regards to this war? 151 00:09:34,940 --> 00:09:37,740 S2: Well, it was either evidence that he really hadn't done 152 00:09:37,740 --> 00:09:42,260 S2: even the most basic homework in assessing his enemy before 153 00:09:42,300 --> 00:09:46,220 S2: launching into this war, or that he was feigning indifference 154 00:09:46,220 --> 00:09:50,280 S2: as if he didn't really care either way. It's the 155 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:54,720 S2: height of irresponsibility to launch into a major globe altering 156 00:09:55,000 --> 00:10:00,280 S2: war without either doing the homework or having concern for 157 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:01,240 S2: the consequences. 158 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:04,280 S1: After the break. 159 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,400 S2: Well, this is a redefinition of the term regime change, 160 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,480 S2: of course. If it weren't so serious, it would be 161 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:14,559 S2: absolutely hilarious as maybe as a TV spoof, a satire 162 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:19,480 S2: on ignorance and willful negligence in the upper echelons of 163 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:20,360 S2: global power. 164 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,320 S1: And so walk me through the other evidence as you 165 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:34,000 S1: see it, that the most powerful leader of the free 166 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,920 S1: world just simply does not know what he's doing in 167 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,360 S1: prosecuting a war against Iran, which, of course, we know 168 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,880 S1: many of its predecessors wanted to do and didn't do 169 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,800 S1: because of what they deemed as just risks that were 170 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:46,570 S1: way too high. 171 00:10:48,610 --> 00:10:50,410 S2: Well, I might pick you up on leader of the 172 00:10:50,410 --> 00:10:54,849 S2: free world. The free world, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, 173 00:10:54,890 --> 00:10:59,170 S2: no longer includes the US. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, 174 00:10:59,450 --> 00:11:02,730 S2: there are only 25 full democracies left on earth, and 175 00:11:02,730 --> 00:11:05,689 S2: the US is not one of them. In fact, none 176 00:11:05,690 --> 00:11:09,689 S2: of the international democracy indexes rate the US as being 177 00:11:09,690 --> 00:11:14,050 S2: a full democracy any longer. A combination of Donald Trump's 178 00:11:14,050 --> 00:11:19,850 S2: denial of an election loss, his assault on the court system, 179 00:11:20,090 --> 00:11:24,570 S2: his assault on civil liberties, the Ice raids Trump sponsored, 180 00:11:24,610 --> 00:11:27,610 S2: and a whole panoply his assaults on the media in 181 00:11:27,610 --> 00:11:30,370 S2: the US. So whether he's the leader of the free 182 00:11:30,410 --> 00:11:32,610 S2: world is now, I would suggest. 183 00:11:33,130 --> 00:11:39,250 S1: In contention a fair point. So very powerful. Not necessarily, um, 184 00:11:39,290 --> 00:11:41,410 S1: upholding democracy as we know it. 185 00:11:42,490 --> 00:11:45,870 S2: Yes. So, uh, that's, that's right. And that again will 186 00:11:45,870 --> 00:11:49,309 S2: be tested when Trump's term expires, his commitment to democracy. 187 00:11:49,309 --> 00:11:51,589 S2: And we know from his own mouth that he prefers 188 00:11:51,870 --> 00:11:56,230 S2: doing business with autocrats and dictators and tyrants than to Democrats. 189 00:11:56,230 --> 00:12:00,230 S2: And he's shown contempt for Democratic allies, as we know 190 00:12:00,870 --> 00:12:04,390 S2: we have from a Brookings Institution fellow in the US, 191 00:12:04,429 --> 00:12:09,590 S2: a Turkish expert, that Trump had told the Turkish government 192 00:12:09,590 --> 00:12:13,470 S2: of Erdogan that they should relax, they shouldn't be anxious 193 00:12:13,470 --> 00:12:16,550 S2: because the war would be over in four days. So 194 00:12:16,710 --> 00:12:19,750 S2: that seems to be the the mother of all miscalculation 195 00:12:19,750 --> 00:12:24,790 S2: in this war. That then led to other failures, for example, 196 00:12:25,590 --> 00:12:29,630 S2: the failure to plan for the oil supply. There was 197 00:12:29,630 --> 00:12:32,910 S2: no plan. And as as we say, you know, in 198 00:12:32,910 --> 00:12:35,070 S2: the fourth week of the war, he is still groping 199 00:12:35,070 --> 00:12:37,550 S2: around trying to find a way to cope with the 200 00:12:37,550 --> 00:12:39,750 S2: disruption to oil. He hasn't got one. And he should 201 00:12:39,790 --> 00:12:40,590 S2: have thought of that. 202 00:12:40,950 --> 00:12:43,970 S1: And and we know from assessments from previous people who 203 00:12:44,010 --> 00:12:47,730 S1: have worked in the defense community and in previous American 204 00:12:47,730 --> 00:12:51,010 S1: administrations that this had been war planned to the hilt. Right? 205 00:12:51,050 --> 00:12:53,770 S1: Like they'd all taken it as a given that this 206 00:12:53,770 --> 00:12:56,130 S1: is what Iran will do. It'll close the straits. And 207 00:12:56,130 --> 00:12:57,890 S1: that's why they didn't do this. 208 00:12:58,290 --> 00:13:01,090 S2: Yes. And Trump, even if he didn't know that, even 209 00:13:01,090 --> 00:13:04,449 S2: if he didn't bother to inform himself of previous planning 210 00:13:04,450 --> 00:13:08,690 S2: and wargaming. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs came to him. 211 00:13:08,690 --> 00:13:12,490 S2: We know from reporting in the Wall Street Journal and said, Mr. President, 212 00:13:12,490 --> 00:13:15,650 S2: the Iranians could close the Strait of Hormuz. We should 213 00:13:15,650 --> 00:13:17,929 S2: plan for that. And he dismissed it and said the 214 00:13:17,929 --> 00:13:20,330 S2: war will be over so quickly that they won't have time. 215 00:13:20,690 --> 00:13:23,610 S2: We also know that his expectation, his or at least 216 00:13:23,610 --> 00:13:27,170 S2: his stated expectation that the regime could fall and he 217 00:13:27,170 --> 00:13:32,890 S2: wants regime change in Tehran directly contradicted the advice he 218 00:13:32,890 --> 00:13:35,730 S2: got from the US intelligence community. We know from reporting 219 00:13:35,730 --> 00:13:41,170 S2: by The Washington Post that the National Intelligence Council, the 220 00:13:41,210 --> 00:13:45,429 S2: peak analytical and advisory body in the American system, had 221 00:13:45,470 --> 00:13:49,750 S2: told Trump that there was little chance that an aerial 222 00:13:49,790 --> 00:13:55,030 S2: bombardment of any intensity, even a great intensity, would result 223 00:13:55,030 --> 00:13:58,870 S2: in the regime falling. So he'd been advised that he 224 00:13:58,870 --> 00:14:01,590 S2: should have anticipated the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. 225 00:14:01,870 --> 00:14:05,630 S2: He'd been advised that it was unlikely that the regime 226 00:14:05,630 --> 00:14:10,350 S2: would fall. And yet he waded into this war regardless, 227 00:14:10,870 --> 00:14:14,910 S2: shocked that the Iranians would close the strait. Shocked that 228 00:14:14,910 --> 00:14:20,950 S2: the apparently shocked that the Iranians were launching war, which 229 00:14:20,950 --> 00:14:24,350 S2: continues to this day against Gulf states as well as 230 00:14:24,390 --> 00:14:29,470 S2: Israel and US bases. And so now overnight, I heard 231 00:14:29,470 --> 00:14:33,710 S2: him saying that there was regime change because I changed 232 00:14:33,710 --> 00:14:37,470 S2: the regime. Well, this is a redefinition of the term 233 00:14:37,470 --> 00:14:41,810 S2: regime change. Of course, regime change means one regime is 234 00:14:41,810 --> 00:14:47,530 S2: removed and another takes power. This just I mean, really, 235 00:14:47,530 --> 00:14:50,930 S2: if it weren't so serious, it would be absolutely hilarious 236 00:14:50,930 --> 00:14:54,610 S2: as maybe as a TV spoof, a satire on ignorance 237 00:14:54,610 --> 00:14:59,450 S2: and willful negligence in the upper echelons of global power. 238 00:14:59,650 --> 00:15:02,130 S1: Yeah, I mean, it certainly makes my mind boggle. Which 239 00:15:02,130 --> 00:15:04,010 S1: brings me to my next question, because you make the 240 00:15:04,010 --> 00:15:07,570 S1: point in your piece, great powers are prone to great delusions. 241 00:15:07,770 --> 00:15:09,850 S1: So I really wanted to ask your opinion because you've 242 00:15:09,850 --> 00:15:14,210 S1: been covering geopolitical struggles and megalomaniacs, it has to be 243 00:15:14,210 --> 00:15:17,690 S1: said for decades. So where does Trump sit, do you think, 244 00:15:17,690 --> 00:15:20,490 S1: in comparison with other delusional leaders? You know, does he 245 00:15:20,530 --> 00:15:23,610 S1: set a new benchmark or is he, you know, perhaps 246 00:15:23,610 --> 00:15:24,530 S1: par for the course? 247 00:15:26,530 --> 00:15:28,690 S2: Well, as you say, I mean, I did I did 248 00:15:28,690 --> 00:15:32,530 S2: write that, that, um, the great powers are prone to 249 00:15:32,570 --> 00:15:38,130 S2: great delusions. I also called it the Icarus syndrome. Flying 250 00:15:38,170 --> 00:15:41,750 S2: too close to the sun, overestimating your own abilities and 251 00:15:41,750 --> 00:15:46,110 S2: greatness and seems to affect their brains. All that heat 252 00:15:46,510 --> 00:15:51,230 S2: from flying so high. The other recent example ongoing example 253 00:15:51,230 --> 00:15:54,310 S2: we have is Vladimir Putin, who thought that his war 254 00:15:54,350 --> 00:15:58,470 S2: against Ukraine would be over in three days, and the 255 00:15:58,470 --> 00:16:01,070 S2: Pentagon agreed with that assessment. And we're now into the 256 00:16:01,070 --> 00:16:05,190 S2: fifth year of that war. Senior officers in the Russian 257 00:16:05,430 --> 00:16:09,190 S2: military were packing their dress, uniforms and medals for the 258 00:16:09,190 --> 00:16:13,390 S2: victory parade through Kyiv that they were expecting to occur 259 00:16:13,390 --> 00:16:17,950 S2: within a week. So that's another example of a leader 260 00:16:17,950 --> 00:16:23,190 S2: who overestimates his own power and greatness, underestimates the enemy, 261 00:16:23,910 --> 00:16:27,870 S2: partly because of their worldview that they're so exceptional and 262 00:16:27,870 --> 00:16:31,030 S2: so powerful. I'm sure there are many more through history. 263 00:16:31,190 --> 00:16:35,350 S2: I mean, famously, the general expectation in World War One 264 00:16:35,670 --> 00:16:38,730 S2: would be that it would be over by Christmas, unquote. 265 00:16:38,770 --> 00:16:41,130 S2: And of course, it stretched on for four years and became. 266 00:16:41,650 --> 00:16:44,490 S2: To that point, the most devastating event in human history. 267 00:16:45,330 --> 00:16:48,130 S1: Okay, so there you have it. We know that powerful 268 00:16:48,130 --> 00:16:51,930 S1: leaders have made epic mistakes that have had horrible consequences 269 00:16:51,930 --> 00:16:55,010 S1: for countless humans in the past. But I just want 270 00:16:55,050 --> 00:16:57,810 S1: to wrap up by asking you, Peter, whether you think 271 00:16:57,810 --> 00:17:00,730 S1: where America is at with this war and the consequences. 272 00:17:00,770 --> 00:17:03,210 S1: I mean, obviously the financial consequences to America are just 273 00:17:03,210 --> 00:17:05,850 S1: being seen. But we know that this war is not 274 00:17:05,850 --> 00:17:08,610 S1: popular in the United States. Do you think that this 275 00:17:08,609 --> 00:17:10,810 S1: is holding a mirror up to Americans in terms of 276 00:17:10,810 --> 00:17:13,290 S1: who they voted in? Because you make the point in 277 00:17:13,290 --> 00:17:16,730 S1: your piece. Donald Trump just does what he wants. And 278 00:17:17,130 --> 00:17:19,530 S1: it kind of comes with a history, right? You make 279 00:17:19,530 --> 00:17:21,490 S1: the point in your piece that he once said, well, 280 00:17:21,490 --> 00:17:23,449 S1: he can do whatever he wants to women and get 281 00:17:23,450 --> 00:17:26,609 S1: away with it. And he basically has. And of course, 282 00:17:26,609 --> 00:17:28,850 S1: now he's doing this and it seems to be with 283 00:17:28,850 --> 00:17:33,130 S1: the same sort of cavalier, merciless sort of perspective. Do 284 00:17:33,130 --> 00:17:36,450 S1: you think Americans are looking at this and it's giving 285 00:17:36,450 --> 00:17:38,949 S1: them something of a shock or not. 286 00:17:40,590 --> 00:17:43,709 S2: We know that the war itself is unpopular, according to 287 00:17:43,750 --> 00:17:48,230 S2: American opinion polling. We know that the increasing pain at 288 00:17:48,230 --> 00:17:53,149 S2: the petrol bowser is the main point of of pain 289 00:17:53,150 --> 00:17:56,230 S2: in the US. But we also have yet to see 290 00:17:56,230 --> 00:18:01,149 S2: any real collapse in his overall approval rating. And Republicans, 291 00:18:01,190 --> 00:18:06,830 S2: broadly speaking, continue to support the war. So it may 292 00:18:06,990 --> 00:18:12,510 S2: yet cause a reassessment of Trump by the remaining roughly 40% 293 00:18:12,510 --> 00:18:15,910 S2: of Americans who approve of the job he's doing. Maybe not. 294 00:18:15,950 --> 00:18:20,070 S2: It may simply be that they have so invested themselves 295 00:18:20,070 --> 00:18:24,830 S2: and their expectations, futures and personas in Donald Trump that 296 00:18:24,830 --> 00:18:30,550 S2: that is unshakeable. I don't know, but Trump certainly knows 297 00:18:30,869 --> 00:18:34,230 S2: that this is a political problem for him. And that 298 00:18:34,230 --> 00:18:38,689 S2: manifested most clearly, I thought, what, 24 hours ago or so, 299 00:18:39,369 --> 00:18:42,129 S2: when he was sharing a platform with his so-called secretary 300 00:18:42,130 --> 00:18:45,810 S2: of war, Pete Hegseth. And Trump, in the course of 301 00:18:45,810 --> 00:18:48,090 S2: talking to the audience about the war, turned to Hegseth 302 00:18:48,090 --> 00:18:51,330 S2: and said, I think you were the one who first said, 303 00:18:51,450 --> 00:18:56,370 S2: let's go get Iran. That pass, hospital pass to Pete 304 00:18:56,410 --> 00:18:59,570 S2: Hegseth by Trump, I think, told us a great deal 305 00:18:59,570 --> 00:19:05,330 S2: about how he understands the political appeal of this rather random, 306 00:19:05,330 --> 00:19:09,369 S2: still unexplained and disastrous misadventure. 307 00:19:10,250 --> 00:19:13,810 S1: Absolutely, Peter. Well, thanks again, as always, for your time. 308 00:19:14,609 --> 00:19:15,609 S2: Thanks a lot, Samantha. 309 00:19:25,010 --> 00:19:28,810 S1: In other news today, renowned Australian designer Leigh Matthews has 310 00:19:28,810 --> 00:19:32,050 S1: faced a public examination in the federal court over the 311 00:19:32,050 --> 00:19:36,150 S1: liquidation of her fashion company and restructuring of her businesses, 312 00:19:36,150 --> 00:19:40,629 S1: which denied a London based creditor more than $2.7 million. 313 00:19:42,109 --> 00:19:44,670 S1: And after the tragic death of Married at First Sight 314 00:19:44,670 --> 00:19:49,710 S1: relationship expert Mel Schilling on Tuesday, Associate Professor Graham Newstead, 315 00:19:49,830 --> 00:19:53,870 S1: medical director at Bowel Cancer Australia, told our mastheads that 316 00:19:53,910 --> 00:19:56,630 S1: though people in their 30s and 40s don't think about 317 00:19:56,630 --> 00:20:01,230 S1: bowel cancer, bowel cancers in people under 50 have been increasing. 318 00:20:01,910 --> 00:20:09,389 S1: You can read more at the Akamai or smh.com.au. Today's 319 00:20:09,390 --> 00:20:13,230 S1: episode was produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is 320 00:20:13,230 --> 00:20:16,790 S1: Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy 321 00:20:16,790 --> 00:20:20,149 S1: and Tom McKendrick. If you like our show, follow The 322 00:20:20,150 --> 00:20:22,909 S1: Morning Edition and leave a review for us on Apple 323 00:20:22,910 --> 00:20:25,390 S1: or Spotify. Thanks for listening.