WEBVTT - Leith Van Onselen - ‘The Treasury of Common Sense’

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<v Speaker 1>Each Saturday where we catch up with Leith van Onselin,

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<v Speaker 1>chief economist at the NB Fund NB Super from Macrobusiness

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<v Speaker 1>dot com dot au. We are asking of late Leith

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<v Speaker 1>to come up with a economic clown or economic champion

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<v Speaker 1>each week. We've had a couple of clowns. We're about

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<v Speaker 1>to get to a champion in a moment or two, but

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<v Speaker 1>not before we get to talk about Australia facing energy armageddon.

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<v Speaker 1>How am my friend? I hope you will Yeah?

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<v Speaker 2>Did I work? Yeah? Well? Or go down at yourself?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah? Not too bad at all, not too bad at all.

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<v Speaker 1>Look the question of our energy crisis, and it is

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<v Speaker 1>I think in the minds of many a crisis. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know where it was during the election campaign. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to revisit that at all, but I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on here? Is it simply the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>the government collects tax from workers and gives it back

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<v Speaker 1>to workers in the way of some kind of assistance

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<v Speaker 1>to pay their power bills? Is that why people don't

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<v Speaker 1>see the train coming? Or what is it? Because we're

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<v Speaker 1>in an ale of the miss Oh?

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely mate. So anyone who pays an electricy bill or

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<v Speaker 2>a gas bill knows that, that knows that your bills

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<v Speaker 2>have surged. And the only reason why we've had any

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<v Speaker 2>relief is because the governments doled out billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 2>of our own money, like basically returned our taxes in

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<v Speaker 2>short term subsidies. But it's not fixing the underlying problem. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>as we all know, the Albanese governments set a ridiculously

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<v Speaker 2>unreal realistic target of having eighty two percent of Australia's

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<v Speaker 2>electricity generated by renewables by twenty thirty. Now, if we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to do that, it means we obviously need to

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<v Speaker 2>shut down a qualifire generation pretty much now. Some of

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<v Speaker 2>Australia's states have gone even further. So, you know, while

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<v Speaker 2>I live in then the clown state of Victoria, Victoria's

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<v Speaker 2>legislator ninety five percent renewal easy target by twenty thirty five,

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<v Speaker 2>so that's just in a decade. South Australia has set

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<v Speaker 2>a one hundred percent renewable energy target by twenty twenty seven,

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<v Speaker 2>so that's in two years right now. These targets are

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<v Speaker 2>completely you know, a logical They defy reality. And the

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<v Speaker 2>reason for that, Luke, is that renewable energy is whether

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<v Speaker 2>dependent and it's intermittent and it cannot be relied upon

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<v Speaker 2>to provide power whenever it's needed. And we actually witness

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<v Speaker 2>that this week because Eastern Australia, as is so often

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<v Speaker 2>during winter. It happened last year in New South Wales,

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<v Speaker 2>the entire Eastern Australia, so talking you know, Brisbane, New

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<v Speaker 2>South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and act it experienced a

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<v Speaker 2>wind drought and it lasted for days on end. Now

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<v Speaker 2>what a wind drought is, As I said, this often

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<v Speaker 2>happens during winter. It's when you basically have very low wind,

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<v Speaker 2>which means you get very low wind wind generation from

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<v Speaker 2>wind turbines. And this is coincided with obviously being winter

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<v Speaker 2>where you got shorter days and you get less sunshine,

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<v Speaker 2>so you obviously get less solar. Now let's you get

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<v Speaker 2>some data here which have pulled off the National Energy Market,

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<v Speaker 2>which is basically you know, the Federal Government's website which

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<v Speaker 2>tracks where all energy comes from, and it showed it

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<v Speaker 2>in the forty eight hours between eleventh and twelfth for June.

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<v Speaker 2>And to be honest with that, I could have picked

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<v Speaker 2>the twelfth or thirteenth of June. But you know when

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<v Speaker 2>I was writing this up, I could have replaced this

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<v Speaker 2>with another set which said exactly the same thing. The

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<v Speaker 2>wind and solar combined over that forty eight hours provided

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<v Speaker 2>only fourteen percent of Australias electricity generation because we had

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<v Speaker 2>the windrow and battery storyge only provided one percent, right,

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<v Speaker 2>so it's fifteen percent if you count batteries now. Fossil fuels,

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<v Speaker 2>on the other hand, because we are in the middle

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<v Speaker 2>of the winter, provided seventy four percent of Eastern Australias

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<v Speaker 2>electricity generation and the forty eight hour period, now that

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<v Speaker 2>that is coal sixty percent and gas. I've left hydra

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<v Speaker 2>out of there because hydro can't we can't scale it up.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just basically it's there every day. But the fact

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<v Speaker 2>matter is that the federal government wants to get rid

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<v Speaker 2>of our coal and gas, well coal through to predominantly

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<v Speaker 2>in the next few years, replace it with this renewable stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>But the renewable stuff doesn't supply when we need it.

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<v Speaker 2>And this was shown this week and for example, at

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<v Speaker 2>seven to fifty pm on Thursday night, when obviously the

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<v Speaker 2>sun had gone down, only three percent of it the

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<v Speaker 2>whole Eastern Australia's electricity generation was came from wind. The

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<v Speaker 2>solar was zero obviously because there's no sun, and batteries

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<v Speaker 2>only provided two percent. This is a seven fifty. This

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<v Speaker 2>is a snapshot. Meanwhile, coal fifty four percent, gas twenty

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<v Speaker 2>three percent combined to contributed seventy seven percent of Eastern

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<v Speaker 2>Australias generation. So theilarious thing here, Luke is earlier this

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<v Speaker 2>week in Victoria. I'm using Victoria obviously not talking to

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<v Speaker 2>Victorian audience, but this is relevant. Victoria experienced and aren't

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<v Speaker 2>expected outage at one of its old coal fire generators

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<v Speaker 2>and it basically led to the renewables lobby coming out saying,

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<v Speaker 2>see Cole's unreliable. Therefore we need to expand renewables to

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<v Speaker 2>get off coal because coal cannot be trusted because there

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<v Speaker 2>was a breakdown. Right, so that there's this outfit I

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<v Speaker 2>call them a propaganda said renew economy. They just write

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<v Speaker 2>less garbage about renewables all the time and just integrate

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<v Speaker 2>any sort of fossil fuels good. And they and they

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<v Speaker 2>wrote an article which said, quote that the your lawn

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<v Speaker 2>coal plant outage quote underscores the urgent need to build

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<v Speaker 2>enough solar, wind and storage to replace them and highlights

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<v Speaker 2>the folly of sweating aging coal assets past the years

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<v Speaker 2>by dates. That's a direct quote. Now. Hilariously, when this

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<v Speaker 2>article came out, the muppet who wrote this wrote it

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<v Speaker 2>during a wind rout when the renewables clap crashed almost zero,

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<v Speaker 2>and they couldn't see they they couldn't see the irony

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<v Speaker 2>that they're calling coal unreliable because there was a out

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<v Speaker 2>each one of the generators. When literally we had a

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<v Speaker 2>wind drout and coal and win the solar combined, we're

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<v Speaker 2>providing bugger or electricity. And the reality here, Luke, is

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<v Speaker 2>that the most unreliable part of the energy system is

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<v Speaker 2>actually intermittent where the dependent renewables because the only work

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<v Speaker 2>when the sun shines, the wind blows, and we never

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<v Speaker 2>know when the wind's going to blow, and the sun

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<v Speaker 2>only shines through the middle of day injury, and if

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<v Speaker 2>it's overcast you get very little of it. Yet yet

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<v Speaker 2>the government and these lobby groups and everyone are trying

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<v Speaker 2>to say we need to get rid of stable baseload

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<v Speaker 2>power and just basically rely on the wind which may

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<v Speaker 2>or may not arrive and the sun, which obviously during

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<v Speaker 2>winter is pretty unreliable. And these same people won't admit

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<v Speaker 2>it that aging coal fire power plants remain the foundation

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<v Speaker 2>of the country's electricity supply. And that was proven this

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<v Speaker 2>week when renewables failed and they could not cover the gap.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's crazy stuff, mate. And so it's what I've

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<v Speaker 2>been saying over and over again is instead of going

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<v Speaker 2>down this road, we need reliable baseload power, otherwise we

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<v Speaker 2>will literally face blackouts and soaring energy prices. Now the

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<v Speaker 2>way I see, we've got two options. First of all,

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<v Speaker 2>we could replace or refurbish the existing coal fire generators.

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<v Speaker 2>So they obviously do need renovation. They're very old, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>But they're already all the transmissions already built, right, so

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<v Speaker 2>all the infrastructure is already there. But yes, they do

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<v Speaker 2>need some work, and that, honestly is my favorite option.

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<v Speaker 1>Look, I'm with you. I you know, I was drinking

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<v Speaker 1>the I don't want to say the nuclear kool aid,

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<v Speaker 1>but I will because I understand. Then you can just

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<v Speaker 1>go your hardest and have generation knowing it to missions

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<v Speaker 1>free if that's a thing, had that everywhere. But look,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that argument, that argument was probably lost. It

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<v Speaker 1>was probably lost on misinformation and poor salesmanship. It seems

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<v Speaker 1>to me, our only option, and again you know the

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<v Speaker 1>mother law scare campaigns, but you don't have to do

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<v Speaker 1>much high efficiency, lower mission coal. And if people are

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<v Speaker 1>so worried about the emissions that come from coal, then

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<v Speaker 1>whatever we burn here reduce what will reduce what we

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<v Speaker 1>export by that and that might even touch asides, but

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<v Speaker 1>that we don't have to rewire anything that's a trillion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars potentially. This to me is a no brainer.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm with you, yea one hundred percent. So the second

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<v Speaker 2>member is, yes, toll is carbon intensive one hundred percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that Australia exports five times as much coal as

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<v Speaker 2>as we can shoot in domestically, So why not just

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<v Speaker 2>export a little bit less and burn more ourselves and

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<v Speaker 2>the world's climate would be no worse off? Right, No,

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<v Speaker 2>But but then again I actually think we should probably

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<v Speaker 2>go down the nuclear road as well. You know, but

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<v Speaker 2>it'll take a while, but do obviously, because you know,

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear is the only way to achieve lower missions and

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<v Speaker 2>stable reliable power, Like the only way you can get

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<v Speaker 2>both is through nuclear, because you can run a twenty

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<v Speaker 2>four to seven it's not whether dependent, it's zero emission. Yes,

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<v Speaker 2>the upfront costs are very high, but so renewables and storage,

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<v Speaker 2>and renewables and storage storage are making batteries and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>building pump high dress stations and that sort of stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>That stuff is completely unreliable and intermittent, and it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to cost a bomb, whereas we could actually just build

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<v Speaker 2>some nuclear generators where some of the old coal fired

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<v Speaker 2>generators were, where there's transmission lines and that sort of thing. Yes,

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<v Speaker 2>it will cost a lot of money, but you know

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to be stable. It'll give you a sixty

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<v Speaker 2>year lifespan. Is renewables have to be replaced, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>fifteen to twenty years, so you have to keep replacing them.

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<v Speaker 2>Batteries you've got to turn over all the time, you

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<v Speaker 2>know when a solar and wind turbines don't last more

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<v Speaker 2>than twenty years, So that the environmental footprint of nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>is way better. You know, one bunton sized warehouse sized

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<v Speaker 2>generator can create the same amount of energy is probably

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<v Speaker 2>you know, four hundred plus wind turbines which are spread

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<v Speaker 2>out all over the place and need concrete footings, You

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<v Speaker 2>need to clear a whole bunch of land. All the

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<v Speaker 2>resources that go into that is insane. Now, it was

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<v Speaker 2>very interesting this week Luke so UK has gone down

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<v Speaker 2>the same zero delusion as US, and they've got a

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<v Speaker 2>guy called Ed Milliband who's their Energy minister, who's just

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<v Speaker 2>like Chris Bowen, he's an absolute zealot. But even the

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<v Speaker 2>UK came out at the start of the week and

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<v Speaker 2>they said that the renewables aren't working properly, it's not reliable,

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<v Speaker 2>so we're going to build out nuclear. So even the

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<v Speaker 2>UK has gone down this road. And Ed Millerban, who's

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<v Speaker 2>just as much of a zelot as Chris Bowen said,

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<v Speaker 2>he declared quote a golden age for British Britain's nuclear industry.

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<v Speaker 2>So so how is that Australia, that holds the world's

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<v Speaker 2>largest deposits of uranium, has banded nuclear power in banded

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear is the source of generation when these other countries,

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<v Speaker 2>like pretty much everywhere else in the world bar Us

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<v Speaker 2>in New Zealand, are going down to the nuclear roid.

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<v Speaker 2>We literally have the world's biggest deposits of uranium, so

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<v Speaker 2>we could go down this road and we've got the

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<v Speaker 2>we're the second biggest, so we're the biggest coal exporter

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<v Speaker 2>in the world, so we could be doing that as well,

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<v Speaker 2>and we're obviously one of the biggest, the second biggest

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<v Speaker 2>gas exporter. But we think there's stupid thing here is

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<v Speaker 2>that we deny our cells access to our own energy,

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<v Speaker 2>our own coal, our own gas, and our own uranium,

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<v Speaker 2>and we'd sell this stuff to the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>We give the rest of the world cheap energy, and

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<v Speaker 2>then we starve ourselves and then we you know, and

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<v Speaker 2>then we say, oh no, no, we know we can't

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<v Speaker 2>burn this stuff. We've got to go down this renewables road,

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<v Speaker 2>which which in times of winter when there's not much

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<v Speaker 2>sun or we have these winds routs which happened regularly,

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<v Speaker 2>they just don't work.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's crazy, It is crazy. It is crazy. And

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<v Speaker 1>the best of interests and the you know, the people

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<v Speaker 1>with Daddy's billions who get the government subsidies in the

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<v Speaker 1>billions and just make the easy ride. I mean, there'll

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<v Speaker 1>be a day. Tell me who the champion of the

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<v Speaker 1>week is. I think we've got some champions time views

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<v Speaker 1>at Who have you gone with.

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<v Speaker 2>Mate, mate, I've gone with journalist Chris Willman. Yes, now,

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<v Speaker 2>now you know former ABC. Now he does some stuff

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<v Speaker 2>with Sky and some others. But the yeah, mate, Christian

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<v Speaker 2>Wilman gave a fantastic he's been right on this energy

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<v Speaker 2>stuff and he's done excellent work, done a great documentaries,

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<v Speaker 2>et cetera. And anyway, it was on the John Anderson

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<v Speaker 2>podcast a week ago and I watched the whole thing

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<v Speaker 2>and it was fantastic and he actually predicted pretty much

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<v Speaker 2>what happened this week, right, So literally a week before

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<v Speaker 2>it happened, he said that the He said, basically, I

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<v Speaker 2>tell you what's going to happen to the East Coast

0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:07.160
<v Speaker 2>energy market. We are running our last coal fire power

0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:09.160
<v Speaker 2>plants about as hard as we can, is what he said.

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<v Speaker 2>He said, one day, when the sun's not shining and

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<v Speaker 2>the wind's not blowing, and probably in the middle of

0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:16.600
<v Speaker 2>winter when it's really quite cold, one of those big

0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:19.320
<v Speaker 2>coal fire power plants is going to give out. It

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<v Speaker 2>will break because the stress it's under. And then we'll

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<v Speaker 2>see the energy ministers come out and say, see we

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<v Speaker 2>told you old power break down. You know, we need

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<v Speaker 2>more renewables, that sort of thing. And that is exactly

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<v Speaker 2>what happened this week, all right. So one of you know,

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<v Speaker 2>as I said, Victoria's coal generators went down the renewables

0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.360
<v Speaker 2>lobby came out and said straight away. See coal's unreliable.

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:43.360
<v Speaker 2>This is why we need more renewables. And this is

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<v Speaker 2>exactly what Chris Juman predicted a link before it happened,

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<v Speaker 2>and it has played out exactly as he said. And

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<v Speaker 2>you know, anyone who wants to learn more on this topic,

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<v Speaker 2>I highly recommend that you go on YouTube, for example

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<v Speaker 2>and search for Chris Juhlman and renewables and power and

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<v Speaker 2>energy and that sort of things. He's done some fantastic

0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:03.839
<v Speaker 2>work in the day.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, he really has, right, I mate, have a great weekend,

0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:09.120
<v Speaker 1>take care and talk to you in a week's time.

0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.720
<v Speaker 1>Thank you. Lead fan ONNSOLIN Chris the Juelman. Big fan

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<v Speaker 1>of his work, as you well know.