WEBVTT - What will be the fallout from the US strikes in Iran?

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<v Speaker 1>As of the moment, we appear to have a cease fire.

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<v Speaker 2>I look them in at the moment, we know that

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<v Speaker 2>the it's initial announcement by US President Donald Trump that

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<v Speaker 2>a ceasefire would begin around six hours and when he

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<v Speaker 2>first stated on social media, and then of course we

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<v Speaker 2>needed confirmation on you from Israel and of course Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>and they've come out and they're.

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<v Speaker 3>Kind of responded.

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<v Speaker 2>But of course there's still information swirling around over the

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<v Speaker 2>precise details.

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<v Speaker 3>As I understand that.

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<v Speaker 2>Iran will have to be the first twelve hours of

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<v Speaker 2>the ceasefire, and then then after that Israel will commence

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<v Speaker 2>their ceasepire stage. So I'm just trying to work out

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<v Speaker 2>how that takes place, as to whether there is going

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<v Speaker 2>to be ongoing, ongoing conclusions if he wants, and as

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<v Speaker 2>to whether there is an enforcement stage. But there is

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of details not yet confirmed yet. But as

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<v Speaker 2>I understand it, Trump's announced it, and it's been number

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<v Speaker 2>one headline pretty much last couple of hours.

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<v Speaker 1>So what did you make of yesterday's strike by Iran

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<v Speaker 1>on the American air bases and guitar and the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that they apparently warned the Americans beforehand. This was going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I've been thinking a lot about this, and basically

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<v Speaker 4>what we have is that you have these obviously response

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<v Speaker 4>we know that we have choice words coming out from

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<v Speaker 4>the Supreme leader from Iran, that there was going to

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<v Speaker 4>be a response that of course the territorial integrity have

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<v Speaker 4>been contravened and they were going to respond accordingly.

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<v Speaker 2>As I understand, a twelve to thirteen missiles went to guitar.

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<v Speaker 3>There was warning.

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<v Speaker 2>But as I look at it, it's kind of almost

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<v Speaker 2>like what we sometimes refer to as a Goldilock strike,

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<v Speaker 2>Like it was almost like you want to be saved face,

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<v Speaker 2>you want to be seen to be doing something.

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<v Speaker 3>You don't just want.

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<v Speaker 2>To sit back and absorb, So you make these strikes

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<v Speaker 2>there of course thwarted, and then of course from there

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<v Speaker 2>and then we see the ceasefly coming to the equation.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's kind of like wanting to send a message

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<v Speaker 2>sort of to your base, and you're not just letting

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<v Speaker 2>it go, but at the same time you'd be sending

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<v Speaker 2>a bit of a message. But and then of course

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<v Speaker 2>we know Trump, you know, didn't he describe it as weak,

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<v Speaker 2>And then of course he'd put his name all over

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<v Speaker 2>the the you know, he branded his name as being

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<v Speaker 2>the you know, organizing all that the ceasefire wasn't d

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<v Speaker 2>taking place.

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<v Speaker 3>So and then interestingly enough, you find out a few

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<v Speaker 3>within half an hour.

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<v Speaker 2>Of that announcement that Guitar was obviously involved in that

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<v Speaker 2>the Prime Minister was involving contacting Iran and helping brokering

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<v Speaker 2>the initial stages of the ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 3>So really interesting developments that one.

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<v Speaker 1>How successful did you think the bunker busting missiles were

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<v Speaker 1>on the uranium uranium science?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, look, I mean I.

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<v Speaker 2>Think at this stage we can say that they've been

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<v Speaker 2>pretty successful.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's hard to say.

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's pr campaign have obviously said it's an unvriet of success.

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<v Speaker 2>They've said they've hit Foder, which is obviously the one

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<v Speaker 2>deeply buried, and they've hit and they hit that one.

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<v Speaker 3>Significan with bunker busters.

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<v Speaker 2>Obviously, they're hitting the tarns, and they hit Isvahan of

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<v Speaker 2>course with a Tomahawk submarine or missile launched from a submarine.

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<v Speaker 2>So as I understand that it's going to take a

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<v Speaker 2>few days or even a few weeks before we ever

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<v Speaker 2>really truly understand the extent.

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<v Speaker 3>Of the damage.

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<v Speaker 5>But the but just by the sheer fact that we

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<v Speaker 5>have that sort of poundage hitting four to oh and

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<v Speaker 5>the Tarns and Evensvahan.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that you would argue that you can argue

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<v Speaker 2>that significant damage has been done.

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<v Speaker 3>Whether or not they're been able to move the.

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<v Speaker 2>Already enriched uranium elsewhere has been subject for debate, and

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<v Speaker 2>also just everyone's also been many commentators or analysts I

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<v Speaker 2>should say that are pretty pretty well connected with nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>issues have also argued that, you know, it's going to

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<v Speaker 2>take a while before we truly understand the extent of

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<v Speaker 2>the damage. But look at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 2>the sort of weaponry that was used, you would have

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<v Speaker 2>to say the significant damage was done.

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<v Speaker 3>But whether or not have got everything, well that's another question.

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<v Speaker 1>Well that's right, because satellite image is shown a line

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<v Speaker 1>of trucks at four dough before the strikes, and there

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<v Speaker 1>is concern that there's over four hundred kilograms of uranium missing.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, that's right.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean I think that I think they're even preceding

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<v Speaker 2>the Israel attack, but definitely once the Israel attack commenced,

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<v Speaker 2>I think there would have been significant shifts of that

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<v Speaker 2>mobilization of that material. They would have known for that

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<v Speaker 2>type of strike coming from Israel wasn't just a tip

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<v Speaker 2>for TAG. This was a serious intervention from Israel, and

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<v Speaker 2>they would have known that the time the clock was

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<v Speaker 2>ticking and probably probably had moved moved you know, reasonable

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<v Speaker 2>portions of the enriched uranium and would argue.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Vice President of America, jd Vance has told

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<v Speaker 1>NBC News that the administration has no interest in a

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<v Speaker 1>protracted conflict. There's going to be no boots on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think that's going to be the.

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<v Speaker 2>It's hard to say, but I mean, like, obviously something

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<v Speaker 2>can come from this treat, to this cease fire. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>but then ceaspires have been pretty you know, have been

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<v Speaker 2>pretty ordinarily a.

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<v Speaker 3>Here too, if we look at Russia and Ukraine in

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<v Speaker 3>recent times.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't feel super confident in CEA spires at the moment,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly from and I don't really necessarily trust both Iran

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<v Speaker 2>and Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>To adhere to those.

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<v Speaker 2>But look, if a c spy I can stick, and

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<v Speaker 2>then there may be some form of an agreement or

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<v Speaker 2>some form of a proper agreements that where terms are

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<v Speaker 2>agreed upon, maybe just maybe this might work. But look,

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<v Speaker 2>I think that it was high risk I think going

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<v Speaker 2>in there, you know, when the threat threat to me

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't imminent, it was the thread was developing, but it

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<v Speaker 2>certainly wasn't imminence. In terms of Iran having the requisite

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<v Speaker 2>delivery systems I had.

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<v Speaker 3>I had issues with that.

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<v Speaker 6>I was worried about it going into a regional war,

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<v Speaker 6>and I was worried about it turning into a boots

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<v Speaker 6>on ground operation, which is what you're alluding to, which

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<v Speaker 6>is what we've always feared when it comes to particularly Iran,

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<v Speaker 6>and having particularly come out having just really come out

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<v Speaker 6>of Iraq and Syria and dare I say, Afghanta and

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<v Speaker 6>obviously Afghanistan and obviously Isis.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, they've all entailed some semblance of boots on

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<v Speaker 2>the ground, and really, you know, the United States has

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<v Speaker 2>proclaimed itself being as being war weary and war weary,

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<v Speaker 2>and I would argue that, yep, that's true.

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<v Speaker 3>But you know, you may decide not.

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<v Speaker 2>To have a protracted conflict or protracted elongated conflict, but

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<v Speaker 2>sometimes you don't have those decisions.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's what I was worried about with this strike option.

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<v Speaker 2>I was worried that you may think you can get

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<v Speaker 2>in and outs and knock over the regime, or not

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<v Speaker 2>necessarily knock over the regime, knock over the actual site

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<v Speaker 2>that is causing issues at hand. But you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>reverberations were always going to be concerning for me.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I was talking to somebody yesterday about regime change,

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<v Speaker 1>but not necessarily the regime completely changing, perhaps getting rid

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<v Speaker 1>of Vitol Ali Kamany, but you could also then have

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<v Speaker 1>him replaced by hardliners, which would be even worse for

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<v Speaker 1>the region.

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<v Speaker 3>That's right.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we've seen it in terms of you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you can manufacture a replacement, whether it be in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of Iraq or Afghanistan. You can top of the tyrant

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<v Speaker 2>and you can orchestrate something that's artificial that you think

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<v Speaker 2>the local.

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<v Speaker 3>Inhabits will inhabitants will gravitate too.

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<v Speaker 2>You may you may have elections, you may have the

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<v Speaker 2>semblance of democracy, you may have people who are compliance

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<v Speaker 2>and seeing decent people.

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<v Speaker 3>But unfortunately, when you.

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<v Speaker 2>Knock over a tyrant or knock over an actor, a

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<v Speaker 2>power vacuum opens up. And you know, good actors may

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<v Speaker 2>get in that power vacuum, but also bad actors and

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<v Speaker 2>extreme actors will always be around to get inside that

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<v Speaker 2>power vacuum. And so that's the thing that I always

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<v Speaker 2>you know many, you know many, it's one international relations

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<v Speaker 2>one O one. You know, you may everyone you know

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<v Speaker 2>in some instance as many people get tempted by regime change,

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<v Speaker 2>but you've got to be beware of what is the

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<v Speaker 2>replacement again, And as you allude to, it could be

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<v Speaker 2>another extreme hardliner who may go even harder in terms of,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, cracking down on a local population. Or you

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<v Speaker 2>may get someone who comes in there and is maybe

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<v Speaker 2>too compliant with the West and gets you served, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>seven eight years down the track.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's kind of one of those things that it's

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<v Speaker 3>a precarious.

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<v Speaker 7>Balance regime change. And even if you do regime change,

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<v Speaker 7>are you prepared to be there for the long haul?

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<v Speaker 7>If you're orchestrating, are you are you prepared to have

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<v Speaker 7>your own troops on deck to maintain security?

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<v Speaker 3>Are you prepared to pony up the money like what

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen and then and then, and then of course

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<v Speaker 3>you will.

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<v Speaker 2>We see with Afghanistan the United States did that, but

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<v Speaker 2>it was kind of like a life support system and

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<v Speaker 2>once they jumped out, it just caved.

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<v Speaker 1>And given the perceived success of this at this stage,

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<v Speaker 1>for Donald Trump, how do you think that's going to

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<v Speaker 1>bolster his position politically America. Do you think he'll be

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<v Speaker 1>bolstered enough to act with impunity going forward.

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<v Speaker 3>It's really interesting.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I didn't think he would be this active

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<v Speaker 2>in the foreign policy domain in Trump two point zero,

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<v Speaker 2>but he's been very, very active.

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<v Speaker 3>Obviously, he's lining up a few things.

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<v Speaker 2>He's obviously, according to Pakistan, Pakistan just even tarted in

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<v Speaker 2>the last you know, thirty to forty minutes or an

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<v Speaker 2>hour that he should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.

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<v Speaker 2>I know Trump really satiated by that notion. We're very

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<v Speaker 2>tempted by that notion. I think he wants to try

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<v Speaker 2>nine out a deal in terms of Ukraine and Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>But he's been finding that that's been easy, he said,

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<v Speaker 2>than done.

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<v Speaker 3>And Putin's been schooling him a little bit in that regard.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, he may may just achieve that this.

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<v Speaker 2>If he can pull this off, I'll be surprised. But

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<v Speaker 2>you know, I've seen you never say never in international relations,

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<v Speaker 2>and just maybe this is what it's taken. It's gone

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<v Speaker 2>against my own views, but maybe just maybe you know,

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<v Speaker 2>intervening and hitting a target like this and succeed out

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<v Speaker 2>of it, even if it is illegal, maybe attained some

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<v Speaker 2>sort of stability for the moment. I don't know how

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to work itself out. In terms of the

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<v Speaker 2>longer period of time, We'll have to wait and see.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't even know what's going to happen in the

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<v Speaker 3>next few days.

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<v Speaker 1>How keen do you think Iran's allies are to be

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<v Speaker 1>involved in this, like Russia and North Korea.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they're definitely not wanting to be involved. That's a

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<v Speaker 3>really good question. A few people have asked me that

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<v Speaker 3>I mean Russia, of course. You know, Russia and China

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<v Speaker 3>both know where their bread's buttered.

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<v Speaker 2>They're okay sticking to their own domains, but they've proven

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<v Speaker 2>over the course of the twenty first century they don't

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<v Speaker 2>like intervening too much in terms of other affairs.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, China benefited immensely.

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<v Speaker 2>When the United States was lost in the Afghanistan and

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<v Speaker 2>Iraqi Wilderness.

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<v Speaker 3>They benefited immensely.

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<v Speaker 2>I would argue, and China and sorry, Russia, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>you know it will say a few choice words.

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<v Speaker 3>It's trying to strategically.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, obviously met with Iran in the last twenty

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<v Speaker 2>four hours or so, but it's got its eightful with

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine and trying to get that sorted. And we know

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<v Speaker 2>proxies in the region have been deeply weakened over the

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<v Speaker 2>last year and a half in terms of Iranian proxies

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<v Speaker 2>and in terms of hes bele learned and obviously definitely

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<v Speaker 2>harmicians and so forth. So this was probably an opportune

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<v Speaker 2>time for Trump and and and definitely yet Nahu and

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<v Speaker 2>and really it's kind of it's a really precariously based,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, position of international affairs. I would argue, But

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<v Speaker 2>it's a lot to play itself.

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<v Speaker 3>Out, I would argue. But yeah, I would.

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<v Speaker 2>Argue that at this stage the allies answer that question

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<v Speaker 2>in a shorter fashion. Yeah, the friends and allies of

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<v Speaker 2>of Iran kind of I would argue, Russia's got their

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<v Speaker 2>hands full of China does not want to intervene, and

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<v Speaker 2>the proxies are have been weakened over the last year

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<v Speaker 2>and a half.