WEBVTT - The Treasury of Common Sense with Leith Van Onselen

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<v Speaker 1>Now on overnights. I have believe in reason and common sense.

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<v Speaker 2>Bleef van Ansolan from mac Road Business with a treasury

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<v Speaker 2>of common sense sense. How are you, buddy?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah? Good, thanks Phil yourself.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm okay. Australia commits economic suicide by gas. Tell us

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<v Speaker 2>about this?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah? Now, look, look, I've been bigging on about the

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<v Speaker 1>whole gas issue on radio two GV and four BC

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<v Speaker 1>for a couple of years. Really and really, excuse to

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<v Speaker 1>shoot yourself in the foot, and we've seen some absolute disaster,

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<v Speaker 1>some some more disastrous gas events this week. So just

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<v Speaker 1>to recap, the Rod Gillard labor government back in the

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<v Speaker 1>early tens made the reckless decision to approve liquefied natural

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<v Speaker 1>gas exports out of Gladston, Queensland, without requiring that gas

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<v Speaker 1>first be supplied to Australians. They basically open up, allowed

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<v Speaker 1>the building and then the opening up of these mass

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<v Speaker 1>export terminals out of Gladston, Queensland, which basically freeze our gas,

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<v Speaker 1>put them on ships and then sell out to Asia,

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<v Speaker 1>mostly to China. And gas exports aren't uncommon around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>There's other places that do it. Western Australia does it.

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<v Speaker 1>For example, the United States does it, a whole bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of places to do it around the world, But every

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<v Speaker 1>other jurisdiction except for the East Coast of Australia, which

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<v Speaker 1>has a gas that exports gas, has a reservation policy

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<v Speaker 1>whereby they're required to supply the domestic market first before

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<v Speaker 1>they can export. But for some crazy reason, we decided

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<v Speaker 1>not to do that in the East Coast and this

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<v Speaker 1>polsy era has made as I said, East Coast Australia

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<v Speaker 1>only gas export in jurisdiction in the world not to

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<v Speaker 1>have a domestic reservation policy. And what that's meant is

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<v Speaker 1>that we pay the highest gas prices in the world

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<v Speaker 1>out of every gas export in jurism which is crazy stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>So despite doubling so these gas export terminals came online

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty fifteen in Gladston, Queensland, and since that happened,

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<v Speaker 1>we've actually doubled production gas on the East Coast of Australia,

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<v Speaker 1>yet we're actually supplying twenty five percent less gas to

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<v Speaker 1>the domestic market. So what we're what they're effectively done

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<v Speaker 1>is they've ramped up production, but they've hoovered the gas

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<v Speaker 1>offshore and they're selling most of that to China, and

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<v Speaker 1>we on the East Coast. We export nearly three quarters

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<v Speaker 1>of our gas, but we starve the domestic market of

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<v Speaker 1>gas and as a result, the East Coast price is

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<v Speaker 1>roughly tripled since these exports came online. So back in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty fifteen, we're paying around four dollars a giga duel

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<v Speaker 1>for a gas in these coast. Now we're paying twelve

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<v Speaker 1>dollars plus. It depends on the data. You know, average

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<v Speaker 1>sort of around twelve dollars now, so it's basically tripled.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, it does go up and down. So

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of days ago was at sixteen dollars, for example.

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<v Speaker 1>And this surge in gas prices on the East Coast

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<v Speaker 1>has actually driven up your electricity bills as well. So

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<v Speaker 1>if you're listening to this in Sydney and Brisbane, your

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<v Speaker 1>electricity prices, as you all know, have gone up as well.

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<v Speaker 1>And part of the reason for that's not the only reason,

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<v Speaker 1>but part of the reason is this surge in gas prices.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a double way. It's driven up gas prices,

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<v Speaker 1>which is harmed manufacturing. I live in Victoria, where we

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<v Speaker 1>heat our homes of gas that's pushed up those prices

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<v Speaker 1>has made costably being a lot more expensive then, so

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<v Speaker 1>I've driven up all of our electricity prices because gas

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<v Speaker 1>is one of the price centers in the wholesale electricity market.

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<v Speaker 1>So during the election campaign, the Coalition promised to implement

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<v Speaker 1>these coast gas reservation policy was actually excellent policy, and

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<v Speaker 1>what they wanted to do is they want to basically

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<v Speaker 1>force the East Coast gas producers to divert their uncontracted gas.

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<v Speaker 1>So at the moment that they've got these tracts that

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<v Speaker 1>start to expire in twenty thirty all the way through

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<v Speaker 1>to twenty thirty five to supply China mostly, but there's

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<v Speaker 1>also uncontracted gas, which is basically they sell in what's

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<v Speaker 1>called the spot market, which is the uncontracted gas market.

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<v Speaker 1>Just the price fluctuates every day, and the Coalition wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to force them instead of selling that uncontracted gas overseas,

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<v Speaker 1>which they're doing to supply the domestic market, to bring

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<v Speaker 1>down prices and the costume promised to lower these cast

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<v Speaker 1>gas price to blow ten dollars a gigiteel from you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as I said, twelve dollars can be more than that

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<v Speaker 1>depending on the day and the counterfactional to doing this

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<v Speaker 1>fill is before. We don't have a reservation polse, we

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<v Speaker 1>don't fix this problem. We're actually despite the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>the East Coast exports nearly three quarters of US gas,

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<v Speaker 1>we're actually scheduled to start importing gas to open up

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<v Speaker 1>import terminals, import kemel in New South Wales and then

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<v Speaker 1>also in Victoria later and then possibly South Australia. It

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<v Speaker 1>was going to be late this year, but the timetable

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<v Speaker 1>keeps getting pushed out, but it could be next year

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<v Speaker 1>or the year after, and when we start importing gas,

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<v Speaker 1>the price is actually going to rock it even higher

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<v Speaker 1>because at the moment we're basically paying the international price,

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<v Speaker 1>but the export parity price. What that is, it's the

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<v Speaker 1>international price but before you've liquified and before you've shipped it,

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<v Speaker 1>so that the liquefaction process and shipping adds like another

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<v Speaker 1>three dollars a giga jewel more than that often, but

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<v Speaker 1>will effectively be paying the current price of plus a

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<v Speaker 1>significant margin above that, and it could go up to

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<v Speaker 1>twenty dollars. We don't know, so we really want to

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<v Speaker 1>avoid that. But unfortunately Labour's Resource Minister during the election,

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<v Speaker 1>Medaline King, dismissed coalition's gas policy called at the thought bubble.

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<v Speaker 1>Just last week, Prime Minister Antony Albert He's actually I

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<v Speaker 1>think his week before claimed that the coalition's gas reservation

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<v Speaker 1>policy was quote plucked out of a coco. Yes, I

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<v Speaker 1>think I mentioned that a few weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I thought it was quite clever.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually, yeah, we got clever comment for a stupid comment

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<v Speaker 1>as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>So what these comments suggests is that Labour's election victory

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<v Speaker 1>has basically stubbled the prospect of reservation, or that that's

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<v Speaker 1>how it seems. And the upshot is that while we

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<v Speaker 1>nearly while we export nearly three quarters of East Coast gass,

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<v Speaker 1>which most of that goes to China, we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>a reservation. East Coast Australia is facing the prospect of

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<v Speaker 1>having the import L and G. We're facing shortages, We're

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<v Speaker 1>facing the sky high prices, and those sky high prices

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<v Speaker 1>will see the electricity price higher and that's going to

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<v Speaker 1>push up inflation. Send more manufacturing broke because gas, industrial

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<v Speaker 1>heat from gas and just electricity more generally, it input

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<v Speaker 1>to the manufacturing process and if you drive the cost

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<v Speaker 1>of that, we become less competitive. We're going to send

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<v Speaker 1>all this stuff offshore. Now that This is a long

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<v Speaker 1>winded introduction to what has happened this week, which just

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<v Speaker 1>adds even more fuel to the idiocy fire. So this

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<v Speaker 1>week we saw Australia gas idiocy idiocy basically mushroom and

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<v Speaker 1>become worse. So patrolling Australia is like a An industry

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<v Speaker 1>newsletter reported that the country's largest liquified natural gas export

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<v Speaker 1>on ease cast. They're called Australia Pacific LNG, which is

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<v Speaker 1>partly owned by Origin Energy. They've agreed to substantial price

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<v Speaker 1>reduction on their contracted gas with China, which and the

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<v Speaker 1>contract with China's China in effect, which is Chinese communisty

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<v Speaker 1>owned energy firm. So currently this age of Pacific l

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<v Speaker 1>and G supplies China with East Coast liquified gas. They

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<v Speaker 1>provide that seven point six million tons a year, which

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<v Speaker 1>is huge, it's a massive amount. And what they've actually

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<v Speaker 1>agreed to is to cut the price for Chinese buyers.

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<v Speaker 1>And the reason why they want to cut the price

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<v Speaker 1>is because the international gas price has fallen a bit

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<v Speaker 1>and under the contract term they have to renegotiate it

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<v Speaker 1>every couple of years when the price falls. So what

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<v Speaker 1>this is basicly going to do it's going to lower

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<v Speaker 1>the cost for Chinese buyers of our gas at the

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<v Speaker 1>same time as Australians are paying higher and higher prices

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<v Speaker 1>for our gas. Now, the industry estimate is that this

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<v Speaker 1>new contract price is going to be as well as

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<v Speaker 1>thirteen dollars gigdule now. When this price cut was announced

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of days ago, Australia's East Coast spot price,

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<v Speaker 1>so that's the current trading price, was traded at sixteen

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<v Speaker 1>dollars now and local contract prices, so this is a

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<v Speaker 1>lotness of stuff under contract, not failable on the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>on the fluctuating instant market is tracking around fourteen dollars gigdule.

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<v Speaker 1>So what this means is that Australian East Coast gas

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be cheaper in China than it is

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<v Speaker 1>in Australia, which is just nuts. And that's despite the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that it costs you know, three dollars or so

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<v Speaker 1>to liquefy the gas and then the ship it. So

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<v Speaker 1>you know that this is clown show. Stuff fell and

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<v Speaker 1>just to make it worse, Japan and China, so Japan

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<v Speaker 1>mostly against West Coast gas, but China gets East Coast gas.

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<v Speaker 1>Japan and China are both receiving more gas than they

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<v Speaker 1>need from Australia and actually re exporting a profit. So

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<v Speaker 1>again they have these sort of lower prices and then

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<v Speaker 1>they're reselling it in international markets for a profit and

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<v Speaker 1>making money off it. So the other question here is

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<v Speaker 1>why the hell are Australians being starved of their own

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<v Speaker 1>gas and forced to pay more than you know, some

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<v Speaker 1>Asian nations who we sell our gas to. And if

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<v Speaker 1>you see, got even worse phil because just as just

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<v Speaker 1>after this was reported earlier this week and sort of

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<v Speaker 1>from Abu Dhabi in the Middle East has launched an

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<v Speaker 1>eight point seven billion dollar takeover bid for gas giant

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<v Speaker 1>austraining gas giants Santos and they run to export L

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<v Speaker 1>and G trains out of Gladsnes, so they're also sucking

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<v Speaker 1>up our East Coast gas and selling it up short Asia.

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<v Speaker 1>So now it's now the Middle East one in and

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<v Speaker 1>they want to buy that export train, so potentially Straight

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<v Speaker 1>can lose critical natal energy assets to a Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>and conglomic and you know, you have to ask the

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<v Speaker 1>question why are as trains the last in line for

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<v Speaker 1>their own gas? Why are we being starved of our

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<v Speaker 1>own gas which is forcing cost of living. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I live in Melbourne, as I said, and we use

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<v Speaker 1>gas for heating, so we're paying, you know, through the

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<v Speaker 1>nose to just eat it to heat our homes. I've

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<v Speaker 1>got a gas stove or gas water water. Manufacturing manufacturers

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<v Speaker 1>are paying through the nose for their gas, which is

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<v Speaker 1>seen in the whole bunch of manufacturers broke. We have

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<v Speaker 1>the smallest manufacturing share in the advanced world. We've just

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<v Speaker 1>seen our last major plastics manufacturers shutdown last year, our

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<v Speaker 1>last architectural glassmaker shut down this year. We've seen a

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<v Speaker 1>whole bunch of manufacturers threatened the clothes or downsize, where

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<v Speaker 1>we've lost fertilizer makers. The reason why the companies have

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<v Speaker 1>left is because of expensive energy costs, primarily gas. So

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<v Speaker 1>what are we doing here? And these super high gas

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<v Speaker 1>prices are also forcing up our electricity prices, which again

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<v Speaker 1>feeds into everything in the economy. If Australia doesn't have

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<v Speaker 1>cheap energy, we don't have a modern economy. It's as

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<v Speaker 1>simple as that, and it is the bedrock for modern economy.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet we've got this clown show happening. We're the

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<v Speaker 1>only place in the world on these coasts. It doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>reserve our gas for domestic use first. And we've got

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<v Speaker 1>these these foreign an gas companies and I'm saying even

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<v Speaker 1>Santos it's you know, trade on the Australian sockey change,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's it's primarily foreign owned. But the people are

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<v Speaker 1>in the shares are offshore. So we have all these

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<v Speaker 1>foreign own gas companies which are basically pillaging this coast

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<v Speaker 1>for its gas, starving these coast consumers of gas, forcing

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<v Speaker 1>up our prices, causing our manufacturing sector to move offshore

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<v Speaker 1>and go broak, which costs us jobs, makes us less

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<v Speaker 1>diversified economy, pushed up the whole cost base throughout the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know this is all happened at the same

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<v Speaker 1>time as the Albanie government wants to build one point

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<v Speaker 1>two million homes over five years as the housing target. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>guess what, phil One of the main inputs building homes

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<v Speaker 1>is bricks, right, But brickworks requires which which is one

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<v Speaker 1>of the major makers of Australian bricks. They require gas,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, to make the bricks, and if you make expensive,

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<v Speaker 1>you make bricks expensive. Were therefore pushed up the cost

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<v Speaker 1>of housing. So that's just one mere microcosm of the

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<v Speaker 1>sort of costs we're dealing with you. But the fact

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<v Speaker 1>of the matter is Australia is the second biggest gas

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<v Speaker 1>exporter in the world. We're the biggest coal export. We

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<v Speaker 1>have tons of your owning which you have the cheapest

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<v Speaker 1>energy in the world, or some of the cheapest energy

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<v Speaker 1>in the world. But instead, through idiotic policy and again

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<v Speaker 1>utter neglect from our policy makers and just allow these

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<v Speaker 1>companies to run right on us and do whatever they want.

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<v Speaker 1>We're getting absolutely shafted here. And the fact the matter

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<v Speaker 1>is that Australi's gas belongs to Australians. Our riches should

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<v Speaker 1>come first, and without reservation, Without reserving our gas and

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<v Speaker 1>forcing it to be supplied to Australians first at a

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<v Speaker 1>reasonable cost. This energy inflation is going to continue to rise,

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<v Speaker 1>the cost of living pressures will remain infuding, will remain

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<v Speaker 1>higher than it should be. An Australias economy is going

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<v Speaker 1>to continue to be industrialized. It is that serious.

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<v Speaker 2>Always make a lot of sense. So that's why this

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<v Speaker 2>is the treasury of common sense. And if people want

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<v Speaker 2>to find out more motion leath, where do they go to?

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<v Speaker 1>Mate? Yeah? Thanks Phil, I just go to macrobusiness dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>Dot au