1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:05,880 S1: My fellow Australians. By nature, we're an optimistic country, but 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:09,320 S1: I understand that right now it's hard to be positive. 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:10,920 S1: The war in the Middle East. 4 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,520 S2: Okay, guys, I've got Paul and Shane right in the 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:15,640 S2: studio with me. I want to hear from them on 6 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,720 S2: a Winston Churchill scale of 1 to 10, how do 7 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:21,439 S2: we rate the Prime Minister's address to the nation on 8 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:22,280 S2: Wednesday night? 9 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,360 S3: Well, it was no, I will fight them on the 10 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:29,600 S3: service station front line. It was a very well short 11 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,000 S3: of that tenor. 12 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:33,360 S2: Yes. And Paul, what did you make of it? 13 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,640 S4: Well, the Prime Minister's not Barack Obama. It wasn't quite 14 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,959 S4: the Gettysburg Address, but it served an important purpose, I think, 15 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,080 S4: for many voters out there, they haven't actually heard a 16 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,320 S4: clear message from the government yet. It's felt messy. The 17 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,760 S4: government was a little bit late to get its tone right. 18 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:53,559 S4: There is a realization now that this will dominate the 19 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,440 S4: government's agenda for weeks, if not months, probably months. And 20 00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:59,280 S4: so I think the government was keen to get its 21 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,090 S4: voice into the public discourse for Albanese to be able 22 00:01:03,090 --> 00:01:05,369 S4: to say, I took it very seriously from the start 23 00:01:05,370 --> 00:01:09,610 S4: to condition for what comes next and to, you know, 24 00:01:09,650 --> 00:01:13,250 S4: reassure but also warn about what the future might hold. 25 00:01:13,410 --> 00:01:15,490 S4: The knock on the speech or the address will be 26 00:01:15,490 --> 00:01:18,130 S4: that by actually calling a national address early in the 27 00:01:18,130 --> 00:01:20,330 S4: morning and having a day of speculation about what might 28 00:01:20,330 --> 00:01:22,610 S4: be in it. It served the opposite effect to actually 29 00:01:22,610 --> 00:01:27,330 S4: instil fear. There's some anecdotal reports about queues at service stations, 30 00:01:27,330 --> 00:01:30,410 S4: which clearly was not the government's intent. There'll be days 31 00:01:30,410 --> 00:01:32,450 S4: of questions, and I imagine the Prime Minister will have 32 00:01:32,450 --> 00:01:35,090 S4: to justify his decision to to go forward with such 33 00:01:35,130 --> 00:01:38,410 S4: a big set piece that may not have had the 34 00:01:38,410 --> 00:01:39,250 S4: desired outcome. 35 00:01:39,890 --> 00:01:42,250 S2: Yeah. I mean, I didn't see it as sort of 36 00:01:42,290 --> 00:01:44,330 S2: badly as that. I just sort of thought that he 37 00:01:44,330 --> 00:01:47,690 S2: was under a bit of criticism last week for being 38 00:01:47,730 --> 00:01:50,410 S2: a bit flat footed in his response to the crisis, 39 00:01:50,410 --> 00:01:53,450 S2: and that they weren't sort of, you know, grasping the 40 00:01:53,490 --> 00:01:57,290 S2: the bull by the horns in terms of people's expectations. 41 00:01:57,290 --> 00:01:59,490 S2: And there is a bit of public anxiety out there, 42 00:01:59,650 --> 00:02:01,730 S2: maybe a lot of public anxiety. So I feel like 43 00:02:01,730 --> 00:02:04,490 S2: he was just kind of trying to reassure people and say, look, 44 00:02:04,530 --> 00:02:07,450 S2: keep calm, carry on, we're all over it. And there 45 00:02:07,450 --> 00:02:10,090 S2: might be some more drastic measures coming down the pike, 46 00:02:10,090 --> 00:02:11,889 S2: but we'll tell you when we get there or we'll 47 00:02:11,889 --> 00:02:14,490 S2: tell you well before we get there, we're going to 48 00:02:14,490 --> 00:02:17,050 S2: talk about that this week. I'm Jacqueline Maley, you're listening 49 00:02:17,090 --> 00:02:19,890 S2: to Inside Politics from the Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. 50 00:02:20,050 --> 00:02:22,250 S2: And if you haven't already guessed, I'm joined by our 51 00:02:22,250 --> 00:02:26,290 S2: chief political correspondent, Paul Satchell, and our special guest star 52 00:02:26,290 --> 00:02:31,609 S2: and favourite of the podcast, chief economics correspondent Shane Reisz. Gentlemen, 53 00:02:31,610 --> 00:02:32,970 S2: it's good to have you on board. 54 00:02:33,450 --> 00:02:35,370 S3: You had me at Special Guest Star. You didn't have 55 00:02:35,370 --> 00:02:36,090 S3: to embellish. 56 00:02:36,570 --> 00:02:39,570 S2: I know, I know, but I couldn't help myself such 57 00:02:39,610 --> 00:02:41,570 S2: my my cup overfloweth when you're. 58 00:02:41,570 --> 00:02:43,450 S3: On, you're only you're only human. That's right. 59 00:02:44,050 --> 00:02:47,130 S2: That's right. So the PM, as discussed, sort of shifted 60 00:02:47,130 --> 00:02:50,090 S2: more to crisis footing this week. And he's announced two 61 00:02:50,130 --> 00:02:53,130 S2: important measures. Let's just briefly cover off what they were. Paul. 62 00:02:54,130 --> 00:02:57,770 S4: Yeah. The first was the major announcement was a halving 63 00:02:57,770 --> 00:03:01,139 S4: in the fuel excise, which is the levy that's paid 64 00:03:01,139 --> 00:03:03,820 S4: on every litre of fuel. Is it $0.52? 65 00:03:03,860 --> 00:03:08,740 S3: $0.52 until it up until midnight. It's on April Fool's Day. 66 00:03:08,740 --> 00:03:11,419 S4: That's right. And this did actually have a pretty quick 67 00:03:11,660 --> 00:03:13,900 S4: tangible effect on petrol prices. There was a sense that 68 00:03:13,900 --> 00:03:15,700 S4: it might take days or weeks to kick in, but 69 00:03:15,700 --> 00:03:17,940 S4: there was an immediate reduction at a lot of service 70 00:03:17,940 --> 00:03:21,060 S4: stations of about 15 or $0.20 across the country, which 71 00:03:21,060 --> 00:03:25,020 S4: is good news, but fuel prices might just continue to increase. 72 00:03:25,020 --> 00:03:28,700 S4: And so this might offset slightly the increase, but is 73 00:03:28,700 --> 00:03:30,579 S4: not going to bring prices down over the next few 74 00:03:30,580 --> 00:03:34,700 S4: weeks as the supply crunch looms. And there's also a 75 00:03:34,700 --> 00:03:37,780 S4: question about whether, you know, reducing the price of fuel 76 00:03:37,820 --> 00:03:41,060 S4: actually counteracts the price signal, which is telling people not 77 00:03:41,060 --> 00:03:42,380 S4: to buy fuel when we need to conserve. 78 00:03:42,420 --> 00:03:44,180 S2: And we know that Shane Wright has very strong views 79 00:03:44,180 --> 00:03:45,619 S2: on that. I'm going to ask him about that in 80 00:03:45,620 --> 00:03:48,700 S2: a sec. And the PM, the PM also cut the 81 00:03:48,700 --> 00:03:51,540 S2: heavy vehicle road user charge. So basically that's helping out 82 00:03:51,540 --> 00:03:54,180 S2: truckies who you know, usually have to pay this charge 83 00:03:54,220 --> 00:03:56,180 S2: and are really doing it tough at the moment. 84 00:03:56,500 --> 00:03:58,740 S4: And one other big move just we should get in 85 00:03:58,780 --> 00:04:02,340 S4: is a $2 billion fund, which is. Which will allow 86 00:04:02,340 --> 00:04:06,580 S4: the government to effectively. Scour the globe with Australian firms 87 00:04:06,580 --> 00:04:09,260 S4: trying to bring oil into the country to underwrite purchases 88 00:04:09,260 --> 00:04:13,100 S4: of tankers. The spot market is obviously increasing oil prices 89 00:04:13,100 --> 00:04:14,620 S4: by two, three, four times. 90 00:04:14,660 --> 00:04:18,020 S3: And most people don't understand. There's a big difference between, say, 91 00:04:18,060 --> 00:04:20,740 S3: if I tell you that the the barrel price at 92 00:04:20,740 --> 00:04:23,300 S3: the moment, it's actually fallen a couple of bucks over 93 00:04:23,300 --> 00:04:27,900 S3: the last two days. It's about 100 US. But on 94 00:04:27,900 --> 00:04:31,340 S3: the spot market you are looking 130 140. There is 95 00:04:31,339 --> 00:04:34,460 S3: a big difference between these the contracted and the spot prices. 96 00:04:34,500 --> 00:04:37,539 S3: And this is what's really driving the announcement that they've. 97 00:04:37,540 --> 00:04:40,420 S2: Made because everybody's trying to scrambling to get oil right now. 98 00:04:40,900 --> 00:04:43,380 S2: Shane tell us you think the fuel excise cut is 99 00:04:43,380 --> 00:04:46,340 S2: very bad policy. Why do you think that? Please explain. 100 00:04:47,020 --> 00:04:49,900 S3: Well, I know for all those motorists out there who 101 00:04:49,940 --> 00:04:53,300 S3: are fueling up thinking, you beauty, I've saved $0.26 a litre, 102 00:04:53,300 --> 00:04:58,140 S3: which is about 19 bucks on 60 65 litre tank. 103 00:04:58,180 --> 00:05:01,550 S3: I get that, but that's the problem. You are saving 104 00:05:01,550 --> 00:05:05,070 S3: money at a time of inflation which will get spent 105 00:05:05,070 --> 00:05:07,510 S3: somewhere else. And this is what the reserve Bank will 106 00:05:07,510 --> 00:05:11,270 S3: be having. Kittens. Uh, in fact, I'm reliably informed there's 107 00:05:11,270 --> 00:05:14,110 S3: a birthing suite for the kittens kittens in Martin Place 108 00:05:14,110 --> 00:05:17,549 S3: at the moment, because this is in the wrong direction 109 00:05:17,550 --> 00:05:20,750 S3: for them. They want money being taken out of the economy. 110 00:05:20,790 --> 00:05:24,150 S3: The the big lift in petrol prices is doing that. 111 00:05:24,150 --> 00:05:27,950 S3: But you've actually given some of that back. And as 112 00:05:27,950 --> 00:05:31,070 S3: much as both sides of politics say, well, this will 113 00:05:31,070 --> 00:05:33,589 S3: only have a little bit of impact on demand, like 114 00:05:33,870 --> 00:05:36,830 S3: the classic supply and demand curve, you reduce a price, 115 00:05:37,110 --> 00:05:40,950 S3: the demand for something goes up. Even Jim Chalmers admitted 116 00:05:40,950 --> 00:05:44,750 S3: this week it'll probably have an impact 1 to 2% 117 00:05:44,750 --> 00:05:48,070 S3: increase in demand. His argument is that the big increase 118 00:05:48,070 --> 00:05:52,789 S3: in prices so far has cut demand by 10%, although 119 00:05:52,950 --> 00:05:55,950 S3: that's that's really at loggerheads with the argument that there's 120 00:05:55,950 --> 00:05:59,630 S3: been this huge surge in demand anyway. But we're in 121 00:05:59,710 --> 00:06:03,110 S3: We're in stupid times when people are racing out, filling 122 00:06:03,110 --> 00:06:08,150 S3: watering cans with fuel. So that's my real concern about 123 00:06:08,750 --> 00:06:11,710 S3: putting money back in. This is a hit to the 124 00:06:11,750 --> 00:06:14,630 S3: budget at the end of the day, at a time 125 00:06:14,670 --> 00:06:17,190 S3: of high inflation. And that's what will have the reserve 126 00:06:17,230 --> 00:06:17,950 S3: Bank concerned. 127 00:06:17,950 --> 00:06:21,429 S4: Your shift to a full on inflation hawk this week? Shane. 128 00:06:21,470 --> 00:06:23,190 S3: I suspect an inflation hawk, my friend. 129 00:06:23,230 --> 00:06:27,670 S4: I suspect the government would argue privately that the potentially 130 00:06:27,670 --> 00:06:30,750 S4: quite marginal effect on inflation that this measure might have 131 00:06:30,990 --> 00:06:34,190 S4: is outweighed by the imperative to use one of the 132 00:06:34,190 --> 00:06:37,349 S4: few levers the government has to provide cost of living relief. 133 00:06:37,390 --> 00:06:40,270 S4: Many other nations around the world are doing similar tax changes, 134 00:06:40,270 --> 00:06:42,670 S4: and I think the pressure on the government to be 135 00:06:42,670 --> 00:06:45,630 S4: seen to be doing something has outweighed the inflation concern. 136 00:06:45,630 --> 00:06:48,270 S3: And that's the difference between politics and economics. Politics. 137 00:06:48,510 --> 00:06:48,990 S2: I need to. 138 00:06:48,990 --> 00:06:49,790 S3: Be seen to be doing. 139 00:06:49,910 --> 00:06:51,870 S2: Apart from politics and economics. I want to bring in 140 00:06:51,870 --> 00:06:54,590 S2: psychology and just sort of sort of make. Oh, look, 141 00:06:54,630 --> 00:06:56,990 S2: I know, I know, I know it's a it's not 142 00:06:56,990 --> 00:06:59,029 S2: a science that you might recognize Shane, but. 143 00:06:59,070 --> 00:07:01,760 S3: It's doctor Mayalee, I love this. This switch. 144 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:03,040 S2: Jacqueline Maley. 145 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:03,680 S4: Psychoanalyze. 146 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,359 S2: Me. Yeah. Um, no, I think that there's probably a 147 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,080 S2: strong argument for the psychological effect that it has on 148 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,840 S2: a population that's a little that was already feeling the pinch, 149 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,320 S2: already feeling very anxious about rising interest rates. And they've 150 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:17,800 S2: got a little bit of relief. So they might be 151 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,320 S2: able to relax a little bit. Whether or not we 152 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,280 S2: relax so much that we then go out and spend 153 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,320 S2: and push up inflation, I don't know if I if 154 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,240 S2: I think that that will be the psychological effect. Anyway, 155 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,960 S2: I am interested in the kind of the impact you 156 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:32,680 S2: think all of this is going to have on the budget, 157 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,160 S2: because we were going to be having a pretty ordinary or, 158 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,840 S2: you know, maybe a bit of a slightly ambitious reform 159 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,600 S2: budget that Jim Chalmers had been talking about on May 160 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:47,400 S2: the 12th. And now, obviously, global events have intervened. Chalmers 161 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,720 S2: is sort of saying, on the one hand, that's not 162 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,960 S2: going to stop us from, you know, making ambitious reform. 163 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:55,400 S2: In fact, it's an even greater reason to go hard 164 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,040 S2: on reform. But on the other hand, Shane, he seemed 165 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:03,090 S2: to say this week that whatever extra money the government 166 00:08:03,090 --> 00:08:07,810 S2: or tax revenue that the government might reap from inflation 167 00:08:07,810 --> 00:08:10,370 S2: will basically be fed back to people via cost of 168 00:08:10,370 --> 00:08:13,290 S2: living measures, and that we might see even more government 169 00:08:13,290 --> 00:08:16,690 S2: money rolling around in the economy. Can you decipher any 170 00:08:16,690 --> 00:08:17,650 S2: of this for us? 171 00:08:18,210 --> 00:08:20,410 S3: Yeah, I can. I'll I'll attempt, but I won't do 172 00:08:20,410 --> 00:08:24,050 S3: it in a psychological manner. I'll do the outside my bailiwick, 173 00:08:24,050 --> 00:08:26,770 S3: that one. Yeah. Look, I think when he talks cost 174 00:08:26,770 --> 00:08:29,850 S3: of living. I'd be very wary thinking there's going to 175 00:08:29,850 --> 00:08:32,650 S3: be some sort of handout. I think that's there's real 176 00:08:32,650 --> 00:08:37,010 S3: resistance in Treasury because as much as like Chalmers has 177 00:08:37,010 --> 00:08:40,370 S3: been talking about, we're going to be making decisions later 178 00:08:40,370 --> 00:08:43,530 S3: in the budget cycle than we normally do. The starting 179 00:08:43,530 --> 00:08:45,570 S3: point was always, this is the budget we're going to 180 00:08:45,570 --> 00:08:46,770 S3: have to make changes on. 181 00:08:47,170 --> 00:08:49,410 S2: So do you mean cuts like are they going to 182 00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:51,770 S2: cut back the budget in some of those structural pressures 183 00:08:51,770 --> 00:08:53,010 S2: that we've talked about before? 184 00:08:53,050 --> 00:08:55,850 S3: Look, if I like the NDIS is clearly one area 185 00:08:55,850 --> 00:08:59,210 S3: where they're going to. They have to make savings. They 186 00:08:59,290 --> 00:09:03,490 S3: know that. And the the politics of the situation. What's 187 00:09:03,530 --> 00:09:06,530 S3: the number of seats that Albanese has in the House? 188 00:09:06,570 --> 00:09:08,970 S3: The make up of the Senate has not changed, despite 189 00:09:09,010 --> 00:09:12,209 S3: what's going on in the Middle East. So that core 190 00:09:12,570 --> 00:09:15,610 S3: piece of politics is still there, which means if you're 191 00:09:15,610 --> 00:09:18,050 S3: going to do it, you do it in this budget, 192 00:09:18,050 --> 00:09:21,010 S3: which is their first budget since the election. And even 193 00:09:21,290 --> 00:09:25,290 S3: on Thursday, Albanese has used his speech to the National 194 00:09:25,290 --> 00:09:28,650 S3: Press Club to really double down on. We are going 195 00:09:28,650 --> 00:09:33,330 S3: to be reforming in this, uh, in this budget. 196 00:09:33,370 --> 00:09:35,810 S4: First time he's used the same language as Chalmers in 197 00:09:35,809 --> 00:09:38,250 S4: this big press club speech on Thursday to say to 198 00:09:38,290 --> 00:09:40,130 S4: match the treasurer, to say this will be the most 199 00:09:40,130 --> 00:09:42,610 S4: ambitious budget yet. It's not the time to pull back. 200 00:09:42,610 --> 00:09:43,770 S4: It's the time to go forward. 201 00:09:43,809 --> 00:09:46,290 S3: And I think that's a really that's really important that 202 00:09:46,290 --> 00:09:50,290 S3: we we see the treasurer and the Prime Minister using 203 00:09:50,290 --> 00:09:54,610 S3: the same terminology clearly. So that tells you. Right. So 204 00:09:54,610 --> 00:09:57,610 S3: we know productivity reforms. There's going to be changes around 205 00:09:57,610 --> 00:10:01,300 S3: the tax system, particularly say in the corporate tax space. 206 00:10:01,500 --> 00:10:04,700 S3: I think you will see some sort of investment, uh, 207 00:10:05,059 --> 00:10:08,140 S3: system put in place to get businesses to become more 208 00:10:08,140 --> 00:10:11,740 S3: productive by investing in plant and, and kit. That's going 209 00:10:11,740 --> 00:10:15,020 S3: to happen. You will see savings. So the NDIS is 210 00:10:15,020 --> 00:10:18,660 S3: clearly in the target, but I think you'll see a 211 00:10:18,660 --> 00:10:22,140 S3: lot of smaller cuts like that. Try and spread out 212 00:10:22,140 --> 00:10:25,300 S3: a bit of the pain. And then you get into 213 00:10:25,340 --> 00:10:29,020 S3: the into the tax reform proper. That's where there's going 214 00:10:29,020 --> 00:10:32,540 S3: to be cost. Anything you do in that space. But 215 00:10:32,780 --> 00:10:35,660 S3: say the CGT that we've been talking about for it 216 00:10:35,660 --> 00:10:39,780 S3: feels like forever negative gearing. That issue hasn't disappeared. There 217 00:10:39,780 --> 00:10:42,300 S3: hasn't been a killing off of that by either the 218 00:10:42,300 --> 00:10:44,699 S3: treasurer or the prime Minister. So I think those things 219 00:10:44,740 --> 00:10:49,140 S3: are definitely still on the cards. But it's clear that 220 00:10:49,179 --> 00:10:53,740 S3: Chalmers so much is in flux right now trying to 221 00:10:53,780 --> 00:10:57,140 S3: nail down exactly what the budget will say is like 222 00:10:57,179 --> 00:11:01,820 S3: it is the most difficult budget to piece together. I 223 00:11:01,820 --> 00:11:05,700 S3: think since the late 2008, during the depths of the 224 00:11:05,700 --> 00:11:09,020 S3: global financial crisis, when Wayne Swan actually had to put up, 225 00:11:09,059 --> 00:11:12,020 S3: put out a separate update to the budget, just like 226 00:11:12,059 --> 00:11:15,179 S3: 8 or 10 weeks after a mid-year update. It's that difficult. 227 00:11:15,220 --> 00:11:17,260 S2: So it'll actually be exciting when we're in the lock up. 228 00:11:17,260 --> 00:11:19,500 S2: Genuinely exciting to see what's what's unveiled. 229 00:11:19,540 --> 00:11:19,900 S4: Big lock. 230 00:11:19,940 --> 00:11:22,860 S2: Up. What what will we make of the forward estimates though. 231 00:11:22,900 --> 00:11:25,059 S2: Like they're just they're going to be even more fictional 232 00:11:25,059 --> 00:11:26,300 S2: than usual don't you think? 233 00:11:27,580 --> 00:11:29,980 S3: Forward estimates are always there's always a bit of fiction. 234 00:11:29,980 --> 00:11:33,459 S3: There's always um, but this is it. Like how do 235 00:11:33,460 --> 00:11:36,100 S3: you predict like they haven't been able to predict the 236 00:11:36,100 --> 00:11:38,740 S3: iron ore price for the last 15 years. So how 237 00:11:38,740 --> 00:11:40,579 S3: you would predict what's going on with oil prices and 238 00:11:40,580 --> 00:11:44,100 S3: LNG prices? Look, I've got I've got a chocolate wheel here. 239 00:11:44,100 --> 00:11:46,300 S3: I'll spin it and well, it may do as good 240 00:11:46,300 --> 00:11:47,260 S3: a job as anything else. 241 00:11:47,300 --> 00:11:49,340 S4: And the contradiction on the messaging from the Prime Minister 242 00:11:49,340 --> 00:11:53,180 S4: on Thursday and Chalmers is that they're on the one hand, 243 00:11:53,179 --> 00:11:55,900 S4: talking up the cost saving element of the budget, the 244 00:11:55,900 --> 00:11:58,620 S4: productivity element. They want to take money out of the 245 00:11:58,710 --> 00:12:01,910 S4: economy because the inflation problem has not been fixed. But 246 00:12:01,910 --> 00:12:04,590 S4: on the other hand, they're already taking measures that go 247 00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:08,390 S4: against it. With the fuel excise cut, and they're forecasting 248 00:12:08,510 --> 00:12:11,430 S4: some more in the cost of living relief space, even 249 00:12:11,429 --> 00:12:15,790 S4: though we don't expect handouts. So it's a really tricky balance. 250 00:12:15,790 --> 00:12:18,430 S4: And on the tax reform question the treasurer has been 251 00:12:18,429 --> 00:12:21,830 S4: talking about the crisis being a reason to go harder 252 00:12:21,830 --> 00:12:25,030 S4: and faster. There are some others in the cabinet who 253 00:12:25,070 --> 00:12:28,710 S4: say well, okay, it might provide impetus to do more 254 00:12:28,710 --> 00:12:32,590 S4: around potentially investing in oil reserves or other measures that 255 00:12:32,590 --> 00:12:35,910 S4: actually address this crisis. But how does it add to 256 00:12:35,950 --> 00:12:39,150 S4: the case for fixing negative gearing or capital gains tax? 257 00:12:39,150 --> 00:12:41,750 S4: And I think people around the treasurer are now thinking 258 00:12:41,750 --> 00:12:44,950 S4: about how they sell those tax reform measures with a 259 00:12:44,950 --> 00:12:48,230 S4: different framing that addresses the current crisis. And one of 260 00:12:48,230 --> 00:12:50,550 S4: the one of the pieces of just one of the 261 00:12:50,550 --> 00:12:53,830 S4: thoughts around that is that you could pitch these measures 262 00:12:53,830 --> 00:12:58,310 S4: not just, as, you know, fiscally sound and and beneficial 263 00:12:58,309 --> 00:13:01,230 S4: to the housing market, but also as measures that kind 264 00:13:01,230 --> 00:13:04,590 S4: of win trust of voters, that push against the rise 265 00:13:04,590 --> 00:13:07,870 S4: of populism and that kind of instill this sense that 266 00:13:07,870 --> 00:13:10,510 S4: the government is making the society fairer and trying to 267 00:13:10,550 --> 00:13:14,550 S4: boost social cohesion. So putting a social cohesion, security, framing 268 00:13:14,590 --> 00:13:16,390 S4: around intergenerational equity. 269 00:13:16,470 --> 00:13:18,670 S2: I don't know, I don't know if any punter has 270 00:13:18,670 --> 00:13:20,750 S2: ever kind of accepted a tax reform on on the 271 00:13:20,750 --> 00:13:24,430 S2: grounds of social cohesion. I think that the fairness argument 272 00:13:24,429 --> 00:13:28,750 S2: is so, so much easier to make in the current environment. And, 273 00:13:28,790 --> 00:13:30,830 S2: you know, I think that the coalition I've said this 274 00:13:30,830 --> 00:13:32,750 S2: before on the podcast, I think the coalition is going 275 00:13:32,750 --> 00:13:35,550 S2: to be really hard pressed to argue against these tax 276 00:13:35,550 --> 00:13:38,310 S2: reforms that we think they'll make, you know, in the 277 00:13:38,309 --> 00:13:41,630 S2: current environment, with housing affordability being where it is. And 278 00:13:41,630 --> 00:13:43,390 S2: as you say, with the rise of one nation and 279 00:13:43,429 --> 00:13:45,950 S2: the the sort of, I think the starting point of 280 00:13:45,950 --> 00:13:48,070 S2: many people who are switching their votes to one nation, 281 00:13:48,070 --> 00:13:50,630 S2: which is the system's kind of rigged against me no 282 00:13:50,630 --> 00:13:53,230 S2: matter how hard I work, you know, I pay my taxes, 283 00:13:53,230 --> 00:13:55,030 S2: I'm trying to raise my family and I just can't 284 00:13:55,030 --> 00:13:57,750 S2: get ahead. And, you know, so burn the whole thing down. 285 00:13:57,950 --> 00:13:59,880 S2: I want to I want to ask you guys about 286 00:13:59,920 --> 00:14:03,360 S2: sort of fuel security and energy security because we have 287 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:05,720 S2: touched on this before, but I just wonder if we're 288 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,959 S2: going to be having a national debate sort of into 289 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:13,079 S2: the future about what our fuel security and energy security 290 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,800 S2: will look like because and will it just get everyone 291 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,960 S2: to double down on their positions? So people who are like, look, 292 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:23,240 S2: this shows more than ever, this whole crisis shows that 293 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:28,000 S2: fossil fuels are an unreliable source of energy. Other people 294 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,640 S2: will say, all it shows is that we need to 295 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:34,040 S2: be mining and exploiting the fossil fuels, including oil reserves 296 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,120 S2: that we have here in Australia. Shane, what do you 297 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,280 S2: think about where the debate's going to go on that? 298 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,640 S3: Well, there's two points. One is that the term sovereign capability, 299 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,800 S3: which is being tossed around, they are the two most 300 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,080 S3: frightening words I've been listening to for some time, because 301 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:51,960 S3: it can mean all manner of things. Are we going 302 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,840 S3: to start building our own refinery? Like if you listen 303 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:59,450 S3: to some people in that space, that's where you end up. 304 00:14:59,690 --> 00:15:02,810 S3: You've got the drill, drill, baby drill types. Out. There 305 00:15:02,850 --> 00:15:06,290 S3: you go. But that oil needs to be refined. And 306 00:15:06,290 --> 00:15:08,650 S3: we don't have the facilities on there. There are some 307 00:15:08,690 --> 00:15:10,410 S3: if you once you go down this. We have to 308 00:15:10,730 --> 00:15:14,010 S3: have great supply lines. We have to produce stuff domestically, 309 00:15:14,010 --> 00:15:17,770 S3: which this government has been talking about, uh, and their policy. 310 00:15:17,770 --> 00:15:21,370 S3: The future made in Australia is that policy. The Nats 311 00:15:21,410 --> 00:15:24,570 S3: and the Liberal Party are still are talking the same game, 312 00:15:24,570 --> 00:15:27,130 S3: but there hasn't been the whole discussion of, well, this 313 00:15:27,130 --> 00:15:30,450 S3: means big economic choices by this country that have to 314 00:15:30,450 --> 00:15:33,490 S3: be made. No one's been up front about the amount 315 00:15:33,490 --> 00:15:35,290 S3: of cash that we'd have to go into. The fact 316 00:15:35,290 --> 00:15:37,410 S3: that you don't have enough people to do what you 317 00:15:37,410 --> 00:15:39,410 S3: want to do. There will be some areas of the 318 00:15:39,410 --> 00:15:41,530 S3: economy cut off if you go down that path. 319 00:15:41,570 --> 00:15:43,890 S2: As in, if you go down the path of exploiting 320 00:15:43,930 --> 00:15:46,410 S2: oil resources or trying to more in Australia. 321 00:15:47,130 --> 00:15:51,010 S3: Not just like the private market is the one that's 322 00:15:51,010 --> 00:15:54,450 S3: deciding whether to explore for oil or not in this country. 323 00:15:54,450 --> 00:15:57,250 S3: And for the last ten years, they've gone, no, there's 324 00:15:57,250 --> 00:16:00,970 S3: no case at the moment. There is, however, and we've 325 00:16:00,970 --> 00:16:03,530 S3: seen some great data in the last like even the 326 00:16:03,530 --> 00:16:08,290 S3: last 2440 eight hours about EVs. For instance, the. There 327 00:16:08,290 --> 00:16:11,530 S3: have been increases in EV. The car prices. The second 328 00:16:11,570 --> 00:16:15,450 S3: hand prices for EVs. While prices for petrol driven cars 329 00:16:15,450 --> 00:16:19,090 S3: are falling sharply, consumers have gone. There's a great big 330 00:16:19,090 --> 00:16:22,170 S3: price signal. That's what I'll do. And there are some, 331 00:16:22,210 --> 00:16:24,610 S3: especially on the right, who are saying, oh, we'll have 332 00:16:24,610 --> 00:16:28,930 S3: a culture war about petrol versus EVs. The EVs are 333 00:16:28,970 --> 00:16:31,890 S3: winning that culture war because it's an economic war and 334 00:16:31,890 --> 00:16:33,050 S3: they just can't win it. 335 00:16:33,090 --> 00:16:35,050 S2: It's a hip pocket war. Paul, what do you think? 336 00:16:36,570 --> 00:16:40,090 S4: This crisis has raised up a debate around the globe 337 00:16:40,090 --> 00:16:43,570 S4: about energy security and the way in which green energy 338 00:16:43,570 --> 00:16:47,410 S4: and renewables could bolster that? Because obviously solar and wind 339 00:16:47,410 --> 00:16:51,810 S4: farm is not affected by, uh, for many thousands of 340 00:16:51,810 --> 00:16:56,090 S4: kilometers away. You heard the European leader, Ursula von der Leyen, 341 00:16:56,090 --> 00:16:58,180 S4: make this point in Parliament last week, you had the 342 00:16:58,180 --> 00:17:02,700 S4: IAEA director make the same point. I suspect the Labour 343 00:17:02,700 --> 00:17:05,860 S4: government will start leaning into that argument when this crisis 344 00:17:05,859 --> 00:17:09,460 S4: starts to subside. It would be seen as political point 345 00:17:09,500 --> 00:17:12,980 S4: scoring or perhaps slightly ideological, to be leaning too heavily 346 00:17:12,980 --> 00:17:17,060 S4: on that argument, given the ire and conservative ranks towards 347 00:17:17,060 --> 00:17:19,420 S4: the green energy agenda of this government. But I think 348 00:17:19,420 --> 00:17:21,580 S4: they will lean into that and come in months and 349 00:17:21,580 --> 00:17:24,620 S4: years to say we are on the right path, and 350 00:17:24,619 --> 00:17:27,060 S4: that crisis proved we're on the right path. On the 351 00:17:27,060 --> 00:17:30,060 S4: other hand, as Shane mentions, the coalition will argue that 352 00:17:30,100 --> 00:17:32,060 S4: we need to be doing more here to give ourselves 353 00:17:32,060 --> 00:17:35,700 S4: the ability to use our own oil. So I one 354 00:17:35,700 --> 00:17:39,379 S4: would suspect that it will give more weight to an 355 00:17:39,380 --> 00:17:41,300 S4: energy abundance agenda in general. 356 00:17:41,340 --> 00:17:44,379 S2: Yeah. Isn't it? I mean, isn't the best argument putting 357 00:17:44,420 --> 00:17:47,140 S2: climate change aside because that has become an I. It's 358 00:17:47,180 --> 00:17:49,980 S2: become a culture war. I mean, ridiculous as that is, 359 00:17:50,220 --> 00:17:52,700 S2: it just seems like a technology argument to me because 360 00:17:52,980 --> 00:17:55,699 S2: fossil fuels are like the 18th century kind of technologies. 361 00:17:55,700 --> 00:17:59,139 S2: They're old, you know, old school, you have to invest 362 00:17:59,140 --> 00:18:02,260 S2: enormous resources pulling them out of the ground. You have 363 00:18:02,260 --> 00:18:04,260 S2: to put them on rusty old tankers, ship them all 364 00:18:04,260 --> 00:18:07,420 S2: the way across the world. And the technology for wind 365 00:18:07,420 --> 00:18:12,820 S2: and solar just seems, I don't know, more contemporary and easier. 366 00:18:12,859 --> 00:18:13,859 S3: You're an elite, aren't you? 367 00:18:13,900 --> 00:18:15,500 S4: You sound like. You sound like Malcolm Turnbull. 368 00:18:15,540 --> 00:18:19,419 S2: Technology, not taxes. I know people who sound like Malcolm Turnbull. 369 00:18:19,460 --> 00:18:24,540 S4: People would make not dissimilar arguments about. And people have people, 370 00:18:24,580 --> 00:18:26,860 S4: you know, who are who are, you know, advocates of 371 00:18:26,859 --> 00:18:29,540 S4: efficiency in the economy and who are kind of productivity 372 00:18:29,580 --> 00:18:33,260 S4: Hardheads would have said similar things about our nickel refining capacity, 373 00:18:33,300 --> 00:18:37,820 S4: our copper ore making capacity, aluminium. And you see the 374 00:18:37,820 --> 00:18:41,780 S4: Labour government now in a really substantial shift to pump 375 00:18:41,820 --> 00:18:44,619 S4: billions of dollars into these sectors to keep them alive 376 00:18:45,020 --> 00:18:49,179 S4: against the wishes of economic hardheads, because according to the 377 00:18:49,180 --> 00:18:51,380 S4: Labour government and you hear this, see this agenda on 378 00:18:51,380 --> 00:18:53,980 S4: the right as well, through people like Andrew Hastie, if 379 00:18:53,980 --> 00:18:56,660 S4: we lose these industries, we lose our ability to fend 380 00:18:56,660 --> 00:18:57,990 S4: for ourselves in time of war. 381 00:18:58,150 --> 00:19:01,270 S2: Yeah, that's kind of a national security argument, which I 382 00:19:01,270 --> 00:19:04,030 S2: suppose you can divorce a little bit from an economic argument, 383 00:19:04,030 --> 00:19:08,149 S2: but I mean, you know, the energy resources and, you know, 384 00:19:08,190 --> 00:19:10,550 S2: the form of energy that we use is just, it 385 00:19:10,590 --> 00:19:13,469 S2: seems to me an entirely an economic argument or it 386 00:19:13,470 --> 00:19:16,950 S2: should be. I want to talk about the US alliance 387 00:19:16,950 --> 00:19:21,469 S2: because Albanese has had to sort of tread such a 388 00:19:21,470 --> 00:19:24,590 S2: fine line on this one. We saw the Canadian Prime minister, 389 00:19:24,590 --> 00:19:27,550 S2: Mark Carney, come out with some really quite strong comments 390 00:19:27,550 --> 00:19:30,869 S2: against President Trump and the Iran war here in Australia. 391 00:19:30,869 --> 00:19:33,990 S2: We're not doing anything near to that. The Prime Minister 392 00:19:33,990 --> 00:19:36,630 S2: went on 730 this week and sort of talked about 393 00:19:36,670 --> 00:19:38,710 S2: he made his strongest comments to date. So he talked 394 00:19:38,750 --> 00:19:40,710 S2: you know, he said people want to see how this ends. 395 00:19:40,750 --> 00:19:43,350 S2: He wanted to see a de-escalation, a time frame or 396 00:19:43,390 --> 00:19:45,830 S2: a clearer objective. And then also in the next sentence 397 00:19:45,830 --> 00:19:48,070 S2: sort of said that the objectives had been achieved, whatever 398 00:19:48,070 --> 00:19:50,669 S2: that means. Paul, do you see this as a hardening 399 00:19:50,670 --> 00:19:52,710 S2: of rhetoric? I mean, there are some people out there 400 00:19:52,710 --> 00:19:55,670 S2: who might who might actually want the government to, to 401 00:19:55,710 --> 00:19:58,590 S2: call this for what it is, you know. Which is a, 402 00:19:59,310 --> 00:20:03,230 S2: you know, a very erratic, non strategic and increasingly sort 403 00:20:03,230 --> 00:20:04,630 S2: of terrifying war. 404 00:20:05,150 --> 00:20:08,310 S4: Yeah. The Albanese is obviously hardened his rhetoric over the 405 00:20:08,310 --> 00:20:11,070 S4: last fortnight. It started in a press conference I think 406 00:20:11,109 --> 00:20:14,910 S4: about two weeks ago, where he made the point of 407 00:20:14,910 --> 00:20:18,830 S4: saying that largely the US's objectives in this war have 408 00:20:18,830 --> 00:20:24,350 S4: been to varying extents achieved. And he urged Trump to de-escalate. 409 00:20:24,710 --> 00:20:27,950 S4: And then this week, you've seen him also call for 410 00:20:28,070 --> 00:20:33,430 S4: greater certainty around the end game. Uh, and he also 411 00:20:33,430 --> 00:20:36,750 S4: made the point quite firmly that Australia is not obligated 412 00:20:36,750 --> 00:20:38,949 S4: to be more heavily involved in this war because we 413 00:20:38,950 --> 00:20:41,990 S4: weren't consulted by Trump. So echoing some of the language 414 00:20:41,990 --> 00:20:47,590 S4: out of European allies, less sharp, uh, language, but similar sentiment. 415 00:20:47,750 --> 00:20:50,790 S4: And I think he would be channelling, uh, what he 416 00:20:50,790 --> 00:20:52,630 S4: believes to be popular sentiment on that. 417 00:20:52,670 --> 00:20:55,750 S2: Yeah. So he's, he's sort of got a like, tread 418 00:20:55,750 --> 00:20:57,399 S2: a fine line, doesn't he? Because he wants to be 419 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,359 S2: seen in in step with, I think, the Australian public, 420 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,160 S2: which is kind of horrified by what's happening and what 421 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,120 S2: Trump's doing. But at the same time, you can't sort 422 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:09,640 S2: of openly piss off the Trump administration unnecessarily. 423 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,480 S3: Well, that's that's the price of the Australian-American alliance. Like 424 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,439 S3: if you if you wanted an Australian prime minister to 425 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,560 S3: have a huge crack at the US president, let's go 426 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,679 S3: back to Gough Whitlam. And that ended exceptionally well. Yeah, 427 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,520 S3: that that sort of tension that that is not where 428 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:30,240 S3: like people talked about how Andrew Hastie was up front. Yes. 429 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:35,000 S3: Talking for everybody. Go. Hold on. Here's a shadow shadow 430 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,680 S3: industry spokesman for the opposition which is nowhere near government. 431 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,840 S3: That person can say stuff. A prime minister, the government, 432 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:43,959 S3: the government cannot. 433 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,000 S2: And I wouldn't. I don't think the Australian public would 434 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,240 S2: necessarily want to see the Prime Minister, you know, have 435 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,240 S2: a have an open crack at Trump, whatever their views 436 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,720 S2: about him. But you mentioned Hastie there. He made those 437 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,920 S2: comments on insiders last Sunday. So if any listeners hadn't 438 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,250 S2: watched and missed them. He basically said. 439 00:21:58,810 --> 00:22:02,850 S5: This is a bad. I think this was a huge miscalculation. Um, 440 00:22:02,890 --> 00:22:06,609 S5: Iran has managed to pretty much hold the whole world 441 00:22:06,609 --> 00:22:09,090 S5: economy to ransom. And because we're at the end of 442 00:22:09,090 --> 00:22:12,090 S5: a very long supply chain, we're going to experience pain now. 443 00:22:12,130 --> 00:22:12,690 S5: We were already. 444 00:22:12,730 --> 00:22:15,369 S2: And he said, I don't know why we went in there. 445 00:22:15,369 --> 00:22:16,850 S2: And he said, you know, I'm a close friend of 446 00:22:16,850 --> 00:22:18,810 S2: the United States, but I think we should be able 447 00:22:18,810 --> 00:22:21,090 S2: to ask hard questions. And as you say, it's sort 448 00:22:21,090 --> 00:22:22,770 S2: of easy for him to say that because he's like 449 00:22:22,770 --> 00:22:25,330 S2: a renegade sort of on the fringes of the Liberal 450 00:22:25,330 --> 00:22:29,290 S2: Party with very obvious intentions to become its leader. He 451 00:22:29,290 --> 00:22:32,450 S2: did say some stuff about tax policy. So, Shane, I'm 452 00:22:32,450 --> 00:22:34,850 S2: really interested in what you have to say on that 453 00:22:34,850 --> 00:22:38,129 S2: because he said that basically he was open to the 454 00:22:38,130 --> 00:22:40,930 S2: Liberals should be open to property tax reform and increasing 455 00:22:40,970 --> 00:22:44,290 S2: tax on gas companies. This is like a shot across 456 00:22:44,290 --> 00:22:47,770 S2: the bow of, you know, neoliberal economic policy, isn't it. 457 00:22:48,170 --> 00:22:51,369 S3: He's been in this space for some time because the 458 00:22:51,369 --> 00:22:56,170 S3: electorate he represents on the outer suburbs of Perth is yeah. 459 00:22:56,290 --> 00:23:01,530 S3: Interest rate, mortgage pain central. Yeah. So he and remember, 460 00:23:01,530 --> 00:23:03,810 S3: there aren't that many of those in the Liberal Party 461 00:23:03,850 --> 00:23:07,490 S3: left after the disaster of the last election campaign. So 462 00:23:07,490 --> 00:23:10,530 S3: he has always been a bit more open in terms 463 00:23:10,530 --> 00:23:14,650 S3: of the argument around CGT and negative gearing, because that 464 00:23:14,650 --> 00:23:18,050 S3: is what he's hearing from his community. And he he 465 00:23:18,090 --> 00:23:23,810 S3: is not nearly as an ideologue around taxation or around 466 00:23:24,250 --> 00:23:27,050 S3: the propertied class as some other members of of his 467 00:23:27,490 --> 00:23:28,330 S3: of his opposition. 468 00:23:28,369 --> 00:23:29,969 S2: Like the leader, the leader of. 469 00:23:30,010 --> 00:23:34,609 S3: Like the leader. Yeah. That's right. Like every time he, we, 470 00:23:34,650 --> 00:23:36,970 S3: he you hear from Angus Taylor it's you don't if 471 00:23:37,010 --> 00:23:40,010 S3: you don't, you don't put a tax on something if 472 00:23:40,010 --> 00:23:42,610 S3: you want more of it, except you've got this overwhelming 473 00:23:42,609 --> 00:23:45,489 S3: economic argument by people who know far more about the 474 00:23:45,490 --> 00:23:48,850 S3: Australian housing market and the taxation system of it, saying 475 00:23:49,050 --> 00:23:53,490 S3: the interaction of CGT and negative gearing is an issue. 476 00:23:53,530 --> 00:23:55,409 S3: It's not the driving issue, but it's a factor in 477 00:23:55,410 --> 00:23:57,540 S3: the way that we've got higher priced houses in this 478 00:23:57,540 --> 00:24:01,939 S3: country and you're into the intergenerational issue. Hastie understands that 479 00:24:02,140 --> 00:24:05,340 S3: it's partly because he is younger, as well as representing 480 00:24:05,340 --> 00:24:07,980 S3: an outer suburban seats. He has a young family and 481 00:24:07,980 --> 00:24:09,740 S3: he has sees it up front. 482 00:24:09,780 --> 00:24:12,459 S2: He gets it. Yeah, I just think that's fascinating because 483 00:24:12,500 --> 00:24:14,420 S2: it's like he's on the side of the people. And 484 00:24:14,420 --> 00:24:17,020 S2: and he said that Paul, he said that very explicitly. 485 00:24:17,020 --> 00:24:19,340 S2: He said, we need to overhaul the whole system. 486 00:24:19,380 --> 00:24:22,140 S5: We either fix the system or it's torn down by 487 00:24:22,140 --> 00:24:24,780 S5: people like Pauline Hanson. No one's going to reward us 488 00:24:24,780 --> 00:24:28,980 S5: for a final last stand for neoliberal politics. Okay, um, 489 00:24:29,340 --> 00:24:30,980 S5: there's no medal for that. 490 00:24:31,020 --> 00:24:33,620 S2: What did you make of those comments? Because he's not 491 00:24:33,619 --> 00:24:36,460 S2: talking like a classic liberal. He's not talking like Angus 492 00:24:36,500 --> 00:24:39,379 S2: Taylor is talking. He's really going against the grain of 493 00:24:39,420 --> 00:24:41,140 S2: the entire Liberal Party, isn't he? 494 00:24:41,820 --> 00:24:44,860 S4: Yeah. I think this interview was really striking and will 495 00:24:44,900 --> 00:24:48,420 S4: be seen as an important moment in Hastie's trajectory wherever 496 00:24:48,420 --> 00:24:52,379 S4: he lands it. It exemplified where the new generation of 497 00:24:52,380 --> 00:24:55,619 S4: liberals want to take the party. People like Andrew Hastie, 498 00:24:55,660 --> 00:24:59,500 S4: Keith Wolahan, backbenchers like Garth Hamilton, Ben Small, some of 499 00:24:59,500 --> 00:25:01,820 S4: whom will not be very well known to our listeners. 500 00:25:01,820 --> 00:25:04,659 S4: They're kind of frothing at the mouth, wanting the party 501 00:25:04,660 --> 00:25:08,340 S4: to talk to different groups in the Australian public. Some 502 00:25:08,340 --> 00:25:10,140 S4: of them are much more right wing than are traditional 503 00:25:10,140 --> 00:25:11,939 S4: liberals in some ways, but they also want to be 504 00:25:11,940 --> 00:25:15,100 S4: speaking to the non-asset owning class. They also want to 505 00:25:15,140 --> 00:25:20,820 S4: question the coalition's attachment, really fervent attachment to Israel and America. 506 00:25:21,020 --> 00:25:25,139 S4: They want to open up new debates on national identity. 507 00:25:25,260 --> 00:25:30,500 S4: And what Hastie is doing by questioning Trump's agenda in 508 00:25:30,500 --> 00:25:34,100 S4: the Middle East is opening up, opening up a new 509 00:25:34,100 --> 00:25:40,460 S4: nationalistic agenda for the Liberal Party, which in Hastie's vision 510 00:25:40,460 --> 00:25:44,420 S4: would be much more Australia focused than US focused at 511 00:25:44,420 --> 00:25:48,020 S4: this point, given the destabilising effect Trump is having across 512 00:25:48,020 --> 00:25:51,460 S4: the West and given the disregard with which he treats allies. 513 00:25:51,820 --> 00:25:55,540 S4: So you saw in that interview a leading voice in 514 00:25:55,540 --> 00:25:59,950 S4: this new generation of conservatives who are, you know, channeling 515 00:25:59,950 --> 00:26:04,870 S4: what you see in in other populist right movements across 516 00:26:04,869 --> 00:26:09,150 S4: the world. Giorgia Meloni, uh, others in Europe saying the 517 00:26:09,150 --> 00:26:13,030 S4: world is pretty fractious. We need to start fending for ourselves, 518 00:26:13,030 --> 00:26:17,350 S4: building up our military, focusing on on getting a better 519 00:26:17,350 --> 00:26:21,109 S4: lot for the working class, really looking at different coalitions 520 00:26:21,109 --> 00:26:23,270 S4: with this Australia first lens. 521 00:26:23,510 --> 00:26:25,830 S2: HMM. It's really interesting to me because it's almost like 522 00:26:25,830 --> 00:26:28,790 S2: a generational conflict within the Liberal Party, but it's also 523 00:26:28,790 --> 00:26:34,950 S2: traditionalists against sort of populist influenced firebrands of the conservative. Right. 524 00:26:35,109 --> 00:26:38,909 S2: It's fascinating. I don't think Andrew Hastie's going anywhere. It 525 00:26:38,910 --> 00:26:41,950 S2: seems like he's only sharpening his claws. So we will 526 00:26:41,950 --> 00:26:45,150 S2: keep following this. Shane, thank you so much for coming on. 527 00:26:45,150 --> 00:26:47,430 S2: I hope you guys fill up your tanks with ease, 528 00:26:47,630 --> 00:26:50,710 S2: your petrol tanks and whatever other tanks you might have 529 00:26:50,990 --> 00:26:54,150 S2: with ease this weekend, this Easter long weekend. 530 00:26:54,990 --> 00:26:58,230 S3: Well, that's. If we can afford the, uh, expensive chocolate. Uh, 531 00:26:58,310 --> 00:27:01,429 S3: because remember, cocoa prices are still very, very high from 532 00:27:01,430 --> 00:27:02,910 S3: a global shortage. 533 00:27:02,990 --> 00:27:05,790 S2: I know, I feel like that's really gone off the agenda. 534 00:27:05,830 --> 00:27:08,630 S2: The Easter Bunny is not immune from inflation. 535 00:27:09,270 --> 00:27:11,430 S3: No, you don't want an inflated Easter bunny. 536 00:27:12,950 --> 00:27:15,869 S2: You do want an inflated Easter bunny egg basket, though. 537 00:27:16,710 --> 00:27:17,510 S3: Absolutely. 538 00:27:17,670 --> 00:27:19,429 S2: Thanks very much, fellas. See you soon. 539 00:27:19,830 --> 00:27:20,270 S4: See you soon. 540 00:27:20,310 --> 00:27:20,909 S3: Cheers, Jackie. 541 00:27:25,950 --> 00:27:27,989 S2: You can read all of our political news on our 542 00:27:27,990 --> 00:27:35,030 S2: websites theage.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai 543 00:27:35,070 --> 00:27:38,590 S2: Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is 544 00:27:38,590 --> 00:27:42,710 S2: Tammy Mills, and our podcast are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy 545 00:27:42,710 --> 00:27:46,470 S2: and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, follow Inside Politics and 546 00:27:46,470 --> 00:27:49,350 S2: leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. I'm 547 00:27:49,350 --> 00:27:51,190 S2: Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.