1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:03,800 S1: Hello and welcome to Inside Politics. Today on the pod, 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,840 S1: we celebrate the return of our very special guest star, 3 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,520 S1: former Opposition leader Bill shorten, who is now the vice 4 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:12,160 S1: chancellor of the University of Canberra. Of course, and he's 5 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,960 S1: joining us from the Parliament House studio, along with chief 6 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:18,799 S1: political correspondent Paul Chuckle. As usual. Welcome, gentlemen. 7 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,360 S2: Good morning. Is it too late to say Happy New Year? 8 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,400 S1: Probably no, because we haven't seen you yet, so we'll 9 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:26,440 S1: make a special rule. 10 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,840 S2: Although I was in Woolies on Sunday and I noticed 11 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,000 S2: the first Easter eggs appearing, so I found that vaguely disturbing. 12 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:32,280 S1: Yeah. 13 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:32,879 S2: That's you. 14 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:33,919 S1: Going. That's. Yeah. 15 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:36,680 S3: Hot cross buns are like January 1st. It's sacrilegious. 16 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:38,440 S2: One long Easter. 17 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:40,640 S1: Easter is my favourite holiday, so I welcome I welcome 18 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,040 S1: it some beginning in February. Now, Bill, this is a 19 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,919 S1: very serendipitous moment to have you on the podcast. And 20 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,120 S1: I'm going to say the following very carefully, because you 21 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,120 S1: have obliquely and I stress obliquely come up in the 22 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:56,400 S1: Epstein files this week. Now to I want to clarify 23 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:58,920 S1: very quickly. And it is a serious business so we 24 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,470 S1: won't joke about it. But. But. So there was another 25 00:01:01,470 --> 00:01:04,429 S1: massive tranche of millions of files from the Epstein so-called 26 00:01:04,430 --> 00:01:08,910 S1: Epstein files, released this week by the US Department of Justice. Strangely, 27 00:01:08,910 --> 00:01:11,510 S1: one of those files seemed to show a text message 28 00:01:11,510 --> 00:01:14,310 S1: exchange between Steve Bannon, who, of course, is the far 29 00:01:14,310 --> 00:01:18,229 S1: right former strategist for Donald Trump during his 2016 campaign, 30 00:01:18,510 --> 00:01:21,830 S1: and the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. And Epstein liked to keep 31 00:01:21,830 --> 00:01:26,030 S1: abreast of international events and international elections. And the message 32 00:01:26,030 --> 00:01:29,870 S1: exchange takes place just after the 2019 Australian election, which 33 00:01:29,870 --> 00:01:32,950 S1: you sort of famously lost to Scott Morrison, where you 34 00:01:32,950 --> 00:01:36,590 S1: were contesting as opposition leader. And it has Bannon boasting 35 00:01:36,670 --> 00:01:40,390 S1: to Epstein that he quotes, had Clive Palmer do the 36 00:01:40,390 --> 00:01:45,830 S1: $60 million anti-China and climate change ads during that campaign. Bill, 37 00:01:45,830 --> 00:01:47,230 S1: what was he talking about? 38 00:01:47,950 --> 00:01:50,790 S2: Well, I got a phone call from an enterprising journalist 39 00:01:50,790 --> 00:01:53,710 S2: from your own masthead about this on Sunday, and my 40 00:01:53,710 --> 00:01:58,820 S2: first reaction is, this is wild. Two days after the 41 00:01:58,820 --> 00:02:02,940 S2: 2019 election. Olmert. Bannon is, you know, on his sort 42 00:02:02,940 --> 00:02:09,100 S2: of permanent email link to that creep. Epstein and Bannon's 43 00:02:09,100 --> 00:02:12,980 S2: taking credit for the election outcome because he said he 44 00:02:12,980 --> 00:02:18,100 S2: helped advise Clive Palmer, who notoriously spent $83 million in 45 00:02:18,100 --> 00:02:20,660 S2: the election, most of which was in the last two weeks, 46 00:02:20,660 --> 00:02:25,299 S2: most of which was creating a mythical Chinese invasion, saying 47 00:02:25,340 --> 00:02:29,780 S2: that climate change isn't real and some unflattering analysis of me, 48 00:02:30,100 --> 00:02:31,900 S2: which did hurt us. It was one of the reasons 49 00:02:31,900 --> 00:02:33,739 S2: we didn't win the election. It wasn't the only one, 50 00:02:34,580 --> 00:02:39,980 S2: but wow. So you've got Bannon boasting to Epstein about, 51 00:02:40,940 --> 00:02:44,420 S2: you know, this international sort of right wing role in 52 00:02:44,419 --> 00:02:49,179 S2: our Palmer dollars to interfere in Australian democracy. 53 00:02:49,460 --> 00:02:51,860 S1: And had you just to give us some context, had 54 00:02:51,860 --> 00:02:55,260 S1: you any idea that Bannon was in touch with Clive 55 00:02:55,260 --> 00:02:57,970 S1: Palmer or that Steve Bannon was at all interested in 56 00:02:57,970 --> 00:03:01,050 S1: the 2019 election campaign, which you were contesting. 57 00:03:01,450 --> 00:03:03,610 S2: I came right out of the blue. I had I 58 00:03:03,650 --> 00:03:08,090 S2: had no idea that our reform agenda had resonated to Bannon. 59 00:03:08,130 --> 00:03:11,570 S1: Mhm. Mhm. It's it was quite it was really extraordinary. 60 00:03:12,050 --> 00:03:15,049 S1: Palmer initially we should say came out and said that 61 00:03:15,050 --> 00:03:17,290 S1: he'd never spoken to Bannon. So you know he had 62 00:03:17,290 --> 00:03:19,450 S1: no idea where this had come from. And it must 63 00:03:19,450 --> 00:03:22,730 S1: be untrue. And then we had Palmer came come out 64 00:03:22,770 --> 00:03:25,130 S1: a day later and say, oh, actually, I do recall 65 00:03:25,130 --> 00:03:27,610 S1: that there was a phone call from Steve Bannon which 66 00:03:27,730 --> 00:03:30,250 S1: which I got at 3 a.m. it was short, and 67 00:03:30,250 --> 00:03:33,169 S1: he just basically congratulated me on what a wonderful campaign 68 00:03:33,169 --> 00:03:36,570 S1: I was running. And then we hung up. What did 69 00:03:36,570 --> 00:03:38,290 S1: you make of that clarification? 70 00:03:38,290 --> 00:03:41,530 S2: Just a footnote. Like, you know, Clive would know where 71 00:03:41,530 --> 00:03:43,930 S2: every dollar he spends is, and he would certainly remember 72 00:03:43,930 --> 00:03:47,890 S2: everyone who's ever insulted him. But he was very emphatic. 73 00:03:47,890 --> 00:03:51,290 S2: He sent out his media minder to say it was 74 00:03:52,010 --> 00:03:56,280 S2: BS and it was not true. That was the Monday 75 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,720 S2: or Tuesday position, but within 24 hours, Palmer has miraculously 76 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:05,600 S2: remembered a phone conversation. So, like on the Tuesday, zero 77 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:09,000 S2: never happened. Nada. Nothing to see here. And then by 78 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:10,920 S2: the next day he says, oh, that's right, I did 79 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,600 S2: get a call. What I would say to you and 80 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,159 S2: to anyone listening is if you got a 3 a.m. 81 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,440 S2: phone call from Steve Bannon, would you forget that? Because 82 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:23,400 S2: apparently poor old Clive forgot it. So that's why I'm 83 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,960 S2: really not sure. And there's more questions here than answers 84 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:26,920 S2: that I can see. 85 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,080 S1: Um, maybe it just sort of melded into his dreamscape, 86 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:31,840 S1: you know, when things happen to you and you're not 87 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,080 S1: sure if they're a dream or if they were real, but, 88 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:38,000 S1: I mean, I guess Clive Palmer really contradicted himself, as 89 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,400 S1: you say, within, within the course of 24 hours. And 90 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,560 S1: one version was the truth and one version wasn't. Or 91 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:46,360 S1: maybe neither versions were the exact truth. We don't know. 92 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,800 S2: He did also say in the interview that no, it 93 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:51,760 S2: wasn't Steve Bannon, but he had a lot to do 94 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:57,070 S2: with Mathias Cormann and Mathias Cormann, nicknamed the muscle from Brussels, 95 00:04:57,070 --> 00:05:00,229 S2: came in from Brussels, where he's helping look after the OECD. 96 00:05:00,230 --> 00:05:02,950 S2: Or maybe he's in Paris and he said Palmer's not right. 97 00:05:03,430 --> 00:05:06,630 S2: So there's, uh, there's a lot of shaky memory here. 98 00:05:06,670 --> 00:05:11,029 S3: Well, Palmer's first statement from the media minder, given to 99 00:05:11,070 --> 00:05:15,110 S3: the news given to our newspaper, just did the call. 100 00:05:15,190 --> 00:05:16,990 S3: I didn't deny that there was any contact. I think 101 00:05:16,990 --> 00:05:18,710 S3: it was just along the lines of this is this 102 00:05:18,710 --> 00:05:21,110 S3: is made up. Nothing to see here. And then Palmer, 103 00:05:21,110 --> 00:05:24,350 S3: when he's speaking at length, perhaps explained what was meant 104 00:05:24,350 --> 00:05:24,670 S3: by that. 105 00:05:24,670 --> 00:05:25,710 S2: I don't think that comment. 106 00:05:25,710 --> 00:05:26,550 S3: Was necessarily. 107 00:05:26,589 --> 00:05:29,470 S2: Palmer's first comment was there was no direct communication. 108 00:05:29,589 --> 00:05:31,190 S3: Was it that direct the first time? 109 00:05:31,230 --> 00:05:32,070 S2: My recollection was. 110 00:05:32,310 --> 00:05:35,230 S1: His wording was quite careful. He said he'd never spoken 111 00:05:35,230 --> 00:05:37,070 S1: to him, I think. And I remember. 112 00:05:37,070 --> 00:05:37,550 S3: Thinking, well. 113 00:05:37,550 --> 00:05:39,390 S1: That doesn't mean that they haven't communicated with each. 114 00:05:39,390 --> 00:05:40,190 S2: Other. Yeah. That's right. 115 00:05:40,230 --> 00:05:43,270 S3: What do you think the if there was a more 116 00:05:43,270 --> 00:05:45,630 S3: substantial link? Let's say that there is more to this 117 00:05:45,630 --> 00:05:48,270 S3: than Clive Palmer's letting on. The broader context of the 118 00:05:48,270 --> 00:05:51,950 S3: communication with Epstein and Bannon. And for listeners knowledge, Steve 119 00:05:51,990 --> 00:05:53,900 S3: Bannon is someone who spends a lot of time in 120 00:05:53,900 --> 00:05:58,700 S3: Europe drumming up fundraising and interest in right wing populist 121 00:05:58,700 --> 00:06:02,780 S3: movements across Eastern Europe. He's been linked with reform in 122 00:06:02,779 --> 00:06:06,300 S3: the UK, and he's boasting to Epstein about how he's 123 00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:10,539 S3: creating these online communities across the world to kind of 124 00:06:10,580 --> 00:06:14,900 S3: create political tension in democracies and to give fuel to 125 00:06:14,940 --> 00:06:18,060 S3: right wing populist movements. Is that was that your sense 126 00:06:18,060 --> 00:06:21,380 S3: of looking back? If there was a link between the 127 00:06:21,420 --> 00:06:24,260 S3: Palmer campaign and Bannon, was your sense at the time 128 00:06:24,260 --> 00:06:28,540 S3: that there was interference, that there were outside forces at play, 129 00:06:28,540 --> 00:06:29,380 S3: or is that fanciful? 130 00:06:29,420 --> 00:06:33,260 S2: I don't want to. I'm very conscious that, you know, 131 00:06:33,300 --> 00:06:37,100 S2: the nation has moved on, and by 2022, you know, 132 00:06:37,140 --> 00:06:41,180 S2: Morrison had run out of any so-called miracles. Um, and 133 00:06:41,180 --> 00:06:45,500 S2: so that's happened. So I'm not toey about that at 134 00:06:45,500 --> 00:06:48,739 S2: the time. You know, we were advancing a pretty solid 135 00:06:48,779 --> 00:06:51,890 S2: tax reform agenda, amongst other things, and a climate agenda. 136 00:06:52,490 --> 00:06:55,210 S2: I was aware that there was vested interests who were 137 00:06:55,210 --> 00:06:57,410 S2: deeply unhappy, but there were things probably we could have 138 00:06:57,410 --> 00:06:59,530 S2: done differently in our campaign. So I don't put it 139 00:06:59,529 --> 00:07:02,570 S2: all at Palmer's campaign. But in the last couple of weeks, 140 00:07:02,930 --> 00:07:06,770 S2: just dumping tens of millions of dollars in advertising, it 141 00:07:06,770 --> 00:07:09,170 S2: was a bigger spend than Woolworths and Coles, you know, 142 00:07:09,210 --> 00:07:11,170 S2: so it's got to have an impact on perhaps less 143 00:07:11,170 --> 00:07:15,170 S2: engaged voters. But the broader picture is I was aware 144 00:07:15,210 --> 00:07:18,170 S2: during the campaign that, for instance, on some of the 145 00:07:18,210 --> 00:07:26,250 S2: anti-abortion stuff, that there were algorithms pumping out interest in 146 00:07:26,610 --> 00:07:30,290 S2: complete misinformation, which said that I and labor was supporting 147 00:07:30,330 --> 00:07:34,450 S2: third trimester abortions, which wasn't our policy. But I remember 148 00:07:34,450 --> 00:07:36,610 S2: seeing some of those ads pop up and we, you know, 149 00:07:36,650 --> 00:07:40,650 S2: I think there were algorithms and I think the alt 150 00:07:40,730 --> 00:07:45,050 S2: right were much better organised in the digital world than labor. 151 00:07:45,050 --> 00:07:49,650 S2: I think we were probably naive about the digital campaign 152 00:07:49,650 --> 00:07:54,320 S2: and that subcurrent of sort of right wing populist misinformation. 153 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:56,320 S1: Right. So are you talking about sort of bots that 154 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,920 S1: will pick up someone's interest via the algorithm on their 155 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:02,560 S1: use of social media and basically spew content at them, 156 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,840 S1: which is misinformation or disinformation based on what they think 157 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,040 S1: their interests are and thereby sort of skew their vote. Yeah. 158 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,120 S3: And there was the death, the death tax subterranean campaign. 159 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,480 S2: Yeah. I mean, Palmer's that China was going to build 160 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,800 S2: a secret air base in Australia. Mhm. Like, you know, 161 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,920 S2: that idea disappeared about what, 6:01 p.m. on the Saturday 162 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:26,000 S2: night when the polls closed. 163 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,200 S1: And yeah. And it was also a lot of as 164 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,160 S1: you say, it was a real ad hominem attack on you. 165 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,880 S1: I mean it was really, really personalised attack, which you 166 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,559 S1: don't often see in sort of mainstream political advertising so much. 167 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:41,040 S1: I mean, if, as you say, it was, you know, 168 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,559 S1: a few elections ago now, the Australian public made its decision. 169 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,079 S1: Even the Labor Party review said that it was probably 170 00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:50,230 S1: a pivotal factor or it was a factor in the 171 00:08:50,230 --> 00:08:53,470 S1: election loss, but it wasn't the only factor. So putting 172 00:08:53,470 --> 00:08:56,350 S1: those things to one side, what can we learn from 173 00:08:56,350 --> 00:09:00,630 S1: this rather disturbing sort of revelation that this foreign, foreign 174 00:09:00,630 --> 00:09:03,069 S1: person who, let's face it, is not what you would 175 00:09:03,070 --> 00:09:06,510 S1: call a good faith actor and is certainly not an Australian. 176 00:09:06,870 --> 00:09:09,790 S2: I mean, it's not an Australian citizen and he's boasting 177 00:09:09,790 --> 00:09:14,190 S2: about influencing Australian election results. Um, I think the first 178 00:09:14,190 --> 00:09:16,709 S2: point I'd make, and it's a broader point than just 179 00:09:16,710 --> 00:09:19,870 S2: the 2019 election, but 2019, I think is some proof 180 00:09:19,870 --> 00:09:23,910 S2: of it, is that Australians have essentially had a holiday 181 00:09:23,910 --> 00:09:27,069 S2: from history, really since the Cold War. And we've tended 182 00:09:27,070 --> 00:09:30,470 S2: to believe that our distance the Pacific, the Indian Ocean, 183 00:09:30,990 --> 00:09:33,510 S2: that somehow what goes on in America or happens in 184 00:09:33,510 --> 00:09:37,030 S2: other places can't happen here. That is wrong. Mhm. I 185 00:09:37,030 --> 00:09:39,309 S2: know in the last term the government, which I was 186 00:09:39,309 --> 00:09:43,470 S2: a member of, did propose electoral reforms to stop that 187 00:09:43,470 --> 00:09:49,020 S2: American style big billionaires just buying outcomes. Um. you know, 188 00:09:49,059 --> 00:09:51,500 S2: under the guise of freedom of speech. I mean, when 189 00:09:51,500 --> 00:09:54,220 S2: it's $83 million, no one else. Who else can compete 190 00:09:54,220 --> 00:09:56,300 S2: with that? Yeah. To find out that they were working 191 00:09:56,300 --> 00:09:56,820 S2: hand in glove. 192 00:09:56,860 --> 00:09:57,700 S3: Well, the political parties. 193 00:09:57,740 --> 00:09:58,699 S2: Can be political. 194 00:09:58,700 --> 00:10:01,660 S3: Parties can compete with 83 million. Pardon? The major parties 195 00:10:01,660 --> 00:10:03,260 S3: can compete with the 83 million. 196 00:10:03,460 --> 00:10:05,780 S2: No. Well that's right. When you added their 83 on 197 00:10:05,780 --> 00:10:09,619 S2: top of the Liberal spend for Morrison. Um, I suppose 198 00:10:09,660 --> 00:10:11,339 S2: you know, I've got a sense of humor about it 199 00:10:11,340 --> 00:10:14,460 S2: all now. Um, I must have really upset some people 200 00:10:14,740 --> 00:10:17,420 S2: to spend that much money to want to stop us. But, 201 00:10:17,580 --> 00:10:20,020 S2: you know, the truth eventually comes out in these things. 202 00:10:20,020 --> 00:10:22,220 S2: But the the bigger point is that we're not immune 203 00:10:22,220 --> 00:10:25,380 S2: to what happens in America. We think it doesn't happen here. 204 00:10:25,420 --> 00:10:26,100 S2: It does. 205 00:10:26,420 --> 00:10:28,540 S1: Well, what kinds of things are you talking about? Are 206 00:10:28,540 --> 00:10:29,219 S1: you talking about the. 207 00:10:29,340 --> 00:10:32,620 S2: For instance, policy, like the big tech bros? You know, 208 00:10:32,660 --> 00:10:35,980 S2: the fact is that, uh, the Esafety commissioner has been 209 00:10:35,980 --> 00:10:39,820 S2: so personally attacked by Elon Musk related interests. You look 210 00:10:39,860 --> 00:10:42,980 S2: at the way that big tech companies really don't see 211 00:10:42,980 --> 00:10:47,010 S2: themselves as bound by sovereign laws. That's, uh, that's business, 212 00:10:47,010 --> 00:10:50,210 S2: they would say, but it's still undermining our system. You 213 00:10:50,210 --> 00:10:52,610 S2: have a look at some of the Americans coming out 214 00:10:52,610 --> 00:10:55,810 S2: to visit Peter Dutton's campaign, which was just a matter 215 00:10:55,809 --> 00:11:01,170 S2: of record. So I think that when we talk about elections, 216 00:11:01,170 --> 00:11:04,850 S2: whilst we've got some safeguards in place, I do think 217 00:11:04,850 --> 00:11:07,410 S2: that we need to be a lot better at funding 218 00:11:07,410 --> 00:11:11,569 S2: our efforts to tackle misinformation and disinformation through the internet. 219 00:11:11,610 --> 00:11:13,890 S3: I think it's just worth noting on the obscene files, 220 00:11:14,850 --> 00:11:17,410 S3: just given the level of secrecy and intrigue around the 221 00:11:17,410 --> 00:11:22,770 S3: whole story, it's easy to quickly believe the the conspiratorial 222 00:11:22,770 --> 00:11:25,290 S3: element to what what we learn about or what we've 223 00:11:25,290 --> 00:11:27,250 S3: seen in some of these texts. It could be the 224 00:11:27,250 --> 00:11:30,770 S3: case that Bannon had very limited contact with Palmer, wanted 225 00:11:30,770 --> 00:11:33,010 S3: to boost his influence to Epstein, and claim that he 226 00:11:33,010 --> 00:11:36,370 S3: was having this role in intriguing election results, and that 227 00:11:36,370 --> 00:11:37,770 S3: there's not much in this. I mean, he does have 228 00:11:37,809 --> 00:11:41,090 S3: a very regular podcast, Steve Bannon. He's not shy in 229 00:11:41,090 --> 00:11:43,810 S3: coming forwards about his role in populist movements in Europe. 230 00:11:43,809 --> 00:11:47,000 S3: He does now have the ability to refute Palmer's claim 231 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,120 S3: and say, I actually had a significant role in that election, 232 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,839 S3: and he hasn't done that yet. So this could this 233 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:54,520 S3: could be nothing, or it could be something. 234 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,240 S1: I don't think it's nothing. I mean, why why would. 235 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:58,400 S2: Why would Epstein. 236 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:02,800 S1: Have obscure thing to to write to Epstein, who presumably 237 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:04,440 S1: doesn't know a lot about Clive Palmer. 238 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:05,839 S3: Because there was. 239 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,240 S2: This to the facts. We do know Palmer spent $83 million, 240 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:10,920 S2: much of it in the last two weeks, that had 241 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,000 S2: an impact. There's no doubt that Palmer and the liberals 242 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,000 S2: were talking a lot. There's no doubt now that Palmer 243 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:21,520 S2: and Bannon had at least one conversation, which Palmer has 244 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:25,120 S2: now recollected. And there's no doubt that Bannon boasted to Epstein, 245 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,160 S2: we don't know if Bannon was just being a sort 246 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,000 S2: of Foghorn Leghorn conservative, taking credit for everything from Kazakhstan to, 247 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:37,720 S2: you know, the polling booths in western Sydney. But they 248 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,760 S2: are facts. And so let's reduce it to what I 249 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:45,670 S2: think is the the factual issue, You, Bannon says to Epstein. 250 00:12:45,670 --> 00:12:49,550 S2: I'm the man. I help with these ads, Palmer says. No, 251 00:12:49,590 --> 00:12:52,590 S2: I and Matthias are the men. He didn't help. I 252 00:12:52,590 --> 00:12:57,709 S2: don't know, but it does highlight our vulnerability to big money. And, 253 00:12:58,270 --> 00:13:00,390 S2: you know, vested interests overseas. 254 00:13:00,429 --> 00:13:03,070 S3: Yeah, totally. I mean, the texts were sent days after 255 00:13:03,070 --> 00:13:05,750 S3: the result, where there was this incredible upset when a 256 00:13:05,750 --> 00:13:08,430 S3: left wing Australian leader has been beaten by a conservative 257 00:13:08,429 --> 00:13:11,630 S3: with with with the help of this really interesting kind 258 00:13:11,630 --> 00:13:14,670 S3: of subterranean online campaign. So Bannon might be just trying 259 00:13:14,710 --> 00:13:16,709 S3: to shoehorn himself into something. 260 00:13:16,750 --> 00:13:19,790 S2: It's a legitimate explanation, but I'd like to hear what 261 00:13:19,830 --> 00:13:22,550 S2: Bannon has to say, because he's been called out as 262 00:13:22,590 --> 00:13:25,750 S2: a just an empty vessel, being a blowhard, boasting to 263 00:13:25,790 --> 00:13:28,189 S2: mates on emails or that's. 264 00:13:28,390 --> 00:13:29,470 S3: Well, there's more to it. We need to hear. We 265 00:13:29,470 --> 00:13:30,470 S3: need to hear from Bannon. 266 00:13:30,510 --> 00:13:33,070 S1: It's extraordinary. The whole story is extraordinary. But I don't 267 00:13:33,110 --> 00:13:35,670 S1: I think we've always got to remember that there are other. 268 00:13:35,830 --> 00:13:36,630 S2: Victims and there. 269 00:13:36,630 --> 00:13:39,950 S1: Are victims, young, young women and girls who are the 270 00:13:39,950 --> 00:13:41,709 S1: victims at the heart of this. And there have been 271 00:13:41,710 --> 00:13:45,939 S1: no consequences for any of the alleged perpetrators. 272 00:13:46,340 --> 00:13:50,179 S2: It's a shocking. I mean, the election is of interest 273 00:13:50,179 --> 00:13:53,860 S2: to us, but the reason why it's a story is 274 00:13:53,860 --> 00:13:56,740 S2: because of Epstein's gross and grotesque and illegal behavior. 275 00:13:56,780 --> 00:14:01,060 S1: Yeah. Which apparently has been completely sort of normalized amongst 276 00:14:01,100 --> 00:14:04,380 S1: the powerful men among whom he moves. Now, I just 277 00:14:04,380 --> 00:14:06,660 S1: want to get back to Australian politics because and back 278 00:14:06,660 --> 00:14:10,900 S1: to the 2019 election, where you advanced a very, what 279 00:14:10,900 --> 00:14:15,780 S1: shall we say, audacious, brave economic agenda and tax reform agenda, 280 00:14:15,780 --> 00:14:18,140 S1: which was obviously roundly rejected by voters. 281 00:14:18,460 --> 00:14:21,980 S2: Well, actually, yeah, 48.5 to 51.5. 282 00:14:22,380 --> 00:14:25,500 S1: Okay. All right. No. That's good. It's good to roundly. 283 00:14:25,500 --> 00:14:26,860 S2: Rejected what Dutton got. 284 00:14:29,740 --> 00:14:32,060 S1: You just couldn't resist that, could you? But I'm glad 285 00:14:32,060 --> 00:14:34,180 S1: you corrected me on the facts. It wasn't roundly rejected, 286 00:14:34,180 --> 00:14:37,100 S1: but it was rejected by voters. And now we have 287 00:14:37,100 --> 00:14:39,900 S1: reports and rumblings that Jim Chalmers, in the lead up 288 00:14:39,900 --> 00:14:42,450 S1: to the May budget might be looking at one of 289 00:14:42,450 --> 00:14:45,410 S1: those reforms again, which of course is the capital gains 290 00:14:45,410 --> 00:14:49,730 S1: tax discount. Basically, you get a 50% discount on any 291 00:14:49,770 --> 00:14:52,250 S1: capital gains tax due if you've held an asset for 292 00:14:52,250 --> 00:14:54,290 S1: more than 12 months and you're an Australian citizen. So 293 00:14:54,290 --> 00:14:57,170 S1: it's a very, very broad exemption or discount to the tax. 294 00:14:57,890 --> 00:15:00,810 S1: So you couldn't get it up in 2019 if Jim 295 00:15:00,810 --> 00:15:03,290 S1: Chalmers instituted it or tried to get it through in 296 00:15:03,330 --> 00:15:05,250 S1: this year's budget. Do you think it would get up 297 00:15:05,250 --> 00:15:07,010 S1: this time? Have things changed? 298 00:15:07,730 --> 00:15:11,530 S2: Well, what that what my policy was based on. I 299 00:15:11,530 --> 00:15:14,010 S2: don't know what Jim and Albo will do in the budget, 300 00:15:14,010 --> 00:15:16,250 S2: but what my policy was based on was this assumption 301 00:15:16,250 --> 00:15:21,130 S2: that in Australia, income is taxed too heavily, property is 302 00:15:21,130 --> 00:15:25,010 S2: taxed too lightly. We've got a situation where a plumber 303 00:15:25,010 --> 00:15:27,490 S2: or a teacher, or a nurse or a journalist or 304 00:15:27,490 --> 00:15:30,930 S2: anyone you know, you pay the increasing marginal rates of tax, 305 00:15:30,930 --> 00:15:33,290 S2: which can go up to $0.45 if you earn over 306 00:15:33,290 --> 00:15:38,210 S2: 200 K, but you could buy a building for 5 million. 307 00:15:38,410 --> 00:15:40,920 S2: It is worth 10 million when you sell it and 308 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:45,920 S2: you only pay tax. You'll only pay 25% tax on 309 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,440 S2: the profit, essentially, so you can make 5 million and 310 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:53,200 S2: only pay 25% tax. But you could be a nurse 311 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,440 S2: working night shift and charge of a ward. You could 312 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,400 S2: be an air traffic controller. You're at the top marginal rate. 313 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:03,400 S2: You're paying $0.45 on far smaller incomes. So we have 314 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:07,280 S2: a system in Australia where it favours the acquisition of 315 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:11,740 S2: property and punishes just working hard, which is what 13.5 316 00:16:11,740 --> 00:16:14,640 S2: billion people do. They go to work every day. So 317 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:18,640 S2: that's the underpinning assumption that property shouldn't be taxed so 318 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:23,560 S2: preferentially and income is taxed too heavily. Now how Jim 319 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:26,240 S2: and Anthony and the rest of them cut the pie 320 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:28,760 S2: I don't know, but it's a fair argument to make. 321 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,960 S2: And I think that, you know, of course, you know, 322 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,200 S2: the universe doesn't grant reruns. But I might have thought 323 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:38,430 S2: occasionally how I would repitch the 2019 policy and be 324 00:16:38,430 --> 00:16:42,390 S2: on the assumption to 13.5 million income earners. You get 325 00:16:42,430 --> 00:16:44,910 S2: you have to pay your 10% GST. You've got to 326 00:16:44,910 --> 00:16:47,870 S2: pay your marginal rate of tax. If you're a student, 327 00:16:47,870 --> 00:16:51,630 S2: you've got to pay your HECS. You know, really the 328 00:16:51,630 --> 00:16:55,550 S2: dice is stacked against younger generations and people earning who 329 00:16:55,550 --> 00:16:57,630 S2: just have an income to rely on. Not as not 330 00:16:57,670 --> 00:16:59,590 S2: a not a revenue from property. 331 00:16:59,870 --> 00:17:02,510 S1: Hmm. So do you. I mean, just going back to 332 00:17:02,550 --> 00:17:04,510 S1: the question, do you think then that it's sort of 333 00:17:04,550 --> 00:17:07,389 S1: the circumstances have changed, and I'm talking in particular about 334 00:17:07,390 --> 00:17:10,470 S1: that issue of intergenerational equity and the feeling that a 335 00:17:10,470 --> 00:17:12,230 S1: lot of people have that their children are not going 336 00:17:12,270 --> 00:17:15,470 S1: to have the same benefits and the same playing field 337 00:17:15,470 --> 00:17:18,830 S1: that they had when they were coming up. And the big, 338 00:17:18,830 --> 00:17:23,070 S1: big problem of the housing crisis or the housing affordability crisis. 339 00:17:23,109 --> 00:17:25,430 S1: Do you think in the current sort of circumstances, it'll 340 00:17:25,470 --> 00:17:27,310 S1: be easier to sell a. 341 00:17:27,350 --> 00:17:29,869 S2: I think so, yeah. So I mean, it depends what 342 00:17:29,869 --> 00:17:32,470 S2: the policy is. It depends how good the sales job is. 343 00:17:32,510 --> 00:17:35,590 S2: I get all of that. But like the demographics have 344 00:17:35,590 --> 00:17:37,740 S2: changed in the electorate by the time we get to 345 00:17:37,780 --> 00:17:40,300 S2: the next election, it'll have been the best part of 346 00:17:40,300 --> 00:17:43,260 S2: nine years since 2019. That's millions of new voters on 347 00:17:43,260 --> 00:17:45,700 S2: the rolls, millions of new voters on the roll, many 348 00:17:45,700 --> 00:17:48,260 S2: of whom are young, who don't have that property. There's 349 00:17:48,260 --> 00:17:51,419 S2: some sort of natural attrition. So I think the demographics 350 00:17:51,420 --> 00:17:54,780 S2: have changed. But even more than the demographics, the reality 351 00:17:54,780 --> 00:17:57,979 S2: is that maybe we needed to recalibrate our negative gearing 352 00:17:57,980 --> 00:18:00,180 S2: policy and say everyone could have a property, they could 353 00:18:00,180 --> 00:18:03,060 S2: negatively gear. But how is it fair that a young 354 00:18:03,060 --> 00:18:07,220 S2: couple are maybe holding down two jobs, are competing to 355 00:18:07,260 --> 00:18:10,260 S2: buy a house with someone who's this is their fifth 356 00:18:10,260 --> 00:18:14,220 S2: investment property and they're getting a taxpayer subsidy. So it's 357 00:18:14,220 --> 00:18:17,060 S2: a bit like in a in a height competition, the 358 00:18:17,060 --> 00:18:20,780 S2: investor gets a stool to stand on, which is called 359 00:18:20,820 --> 00:18:25,580 S2: taxpayer subsidy, which lets them compete against poor old, you know, 360 00:18:25,619 --> 00:18:27,699 S2: Tim and Fiona out in the outer burbs, who are 361 00:18:27,700 --> 00:18:30,060 S2: holding down two jobs and just want to get their 362 00:18:30,060 --> 00:18:30,820 S2: first house. 363 00:18:30,859 --> 00:18:34,500 S1: Yeah. Um, it's certainly some of those things, it would 364 00:18:34,500 --> 00:18:37,570 S1: seem to me, would be more easily argued in the 365 00:18:37,570 --> 00:18:40,050 S1: current situation. Paul, I want to ask you, what do 366 00:18:40,050 --> 00:18:42,210 S1: you think? I mean, if if Jim Chalmers was to 367 00:18:42,250 --> 00:18:44,370 S1: come up with some sort of tweak, particularly to the 368 00:18:44,369 --> 00:18:48,290 S1: CGT discount, would the liberals slash the nationals and who 369 00:18:48,290 --> 00:18:51,290 S1: knows whether they'll be together or apart by then? Um, 370 00:18:51,290 --> 00:18:54,090 S1: would they actually be able to mount an effective argument 371 00:18:54,130 --> 00:18:55,010 S1: against it? 372 00:18:55,650 --> 00:18:58,930 S3: Well, this was this came up in the early part 373 00:18:58,930 --> 00:19:01,650 S3: of the Dutton opposition. There was a group of backbenchers 374 00:19:01,650 --> 00:19:04,450 S3: led by Keith Wolahan, who lost his seat in the 375 00:19:04,450 --> 00:19:07,369 S3: eastern suburbs of Melbourne. The seat of Menzies used to 376 00:19:07,369 --> 00:19:09,729 S3: be a very safe Liberal seat. And this group of 377 00:19:09,730 --> 00:19:12,850 S3: younger Liberal backbenchers were keen for the Liberal Party to 378 00:19:12,890 --> 00:19:16,010 S3: to break from their tradition on protecting the property owner 379 00:19:16,010 --> 00:19:20,170 S3: class and to do a kind of radical policy, uh, 380 00:19:20,290 --> 00:19:22,970 S3: push that would align the Liberal Party with the group 381 00:19:22,970 --> 00:19:25,250 S3: of Australians who want to break into the housing market. 382 00:19:25,570 --> 00:19:28,290 S3: And Dutton became aware of this push. And him and 383 00:19:28,290 --> 00:19:31,530 S3: his people, including Michael Sukkar, who was the housing spokesperson 384 00:19:31,530 --> 00:19:33,730 S3: at the time, who was part of an older generation 385 00:19:33,730 --> 00:19:37,040 S3: of liberal conservative said, guys, we're not going anywhere near this. 386 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,520 S3: We're in opposition. We're not going to take risk on 387 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,560 S3: our policy set and we're not going near property tax breaks. 388 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:45,679 S3: So the Liberal Party, I imagine, because it's in the 389 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,840 S3: weak position that it's in, will take a reflexive opposition 390 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:52,679 S3: to any change to the property tax settings. And they'll 391 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,359 S3: see this as a new policy debate that will, you know, 392 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,639 S3: allow the Liberal Party to cleave back to its natural home, 393 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,920 S3: protecting the asset class. And it would be a big 394 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,240 S3: economic fight for Susan Lee to take on. It's probably 395 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,640 S3: shortsighted because they do actually need to talk to those voters, 396 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:07,720 S3: but I suspect that's short. 397 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:12,040 S2: Sighted because the greatest predictor of what is a liberal 398 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,119 S2: voter now is if you were born before 1965, if 399 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:20,400 S2: your Anglo-Australian, um, like, that's an okay cohort and lots 400 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,480 S2: of my I know lots of people in that cohort, 401 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:23,440 S2: but that's not enough. 402 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:24,680 S1: Best friends are in that cohort. 403 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,720 S2: Yeah, but but it's not enough people to win an election. 404 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,600 S1: No. And it's certainly not enough people to kind of 405 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,910 S1: form a broad coalition in the small sense of like, 406 00:20:33,950 --> 00:20:36,949 S1: you know, there are many, many cohorts within Australia that 407 00:20:36,950 --> 00:20:37,869 S1: we will fight for. 408 00:20:38,310 --> 00:20:41,270 S3: Bill, your mentor, one of your mentors, Bill Kelty, has 409 00:20:41,270 --> 00:20:43,790 S3: said since 2019 that one of the key lessons was 410 00:20:43,990 --> 00:20:47,710 S3: if you do tweak the tax breaks, it makes sense 411 00:20:47,710 --> 00:20:51,109 S3: to offset what you're effectively taking from the community with 412 00:20:51,109 --> 00:20:53,750 S3: income tax cuts. And that's a kind of grand bargain 413 00:20:53,750 --> 00:20:54,350 S3: you can do. 414 00:20:54,950 --> 00:20:57,149 S2: Is if you're going to go down the path of 415 00:20:57,150 --> 00:21:03,670 S2: tackling property tax reform, uh, property capital taxes, you should 416 00:21:03,670 --> 00:21:07,230 S2: hand back that in income tax cuts. Otherwise it just 417 00:21:07,230 --> 00:21:08,149 S2: looks like a money grab. 418 00:21:08,190 --> 00:21:11,070 S3: And they could do that by expanding the small tax 419 00:21:11,070 --> 00:21:12,470 S3: cut they announced before. 420 00:21:12,470 --> 00:21:14,910 S2: There's a million ways. But just if I had my time, 421 00:21:15,190 --> 00:21:17,550 S2: if I had my time again in 2019, one thing 422 00:21:17,550 --> 00:21:20,110 S2: I would do other than watch Clive Palmer carefully, uh, 423 00:21:20,109 --> 00:21:23,030 S2: is any of the money we were taking out of 424 00:21:23,070 --> 00:21:27,150 S2: reforming capital gains discount? Reforming some of the other taxes 425 00:21:27,590 --> 00:21:30,510 S2: is hand it back in income tax cuts. Um, but anyway, 426 00:21:30,550 --> 00:21:34,419 S2: that's advice from the lofty, lofty heights of academia. My 427 00:21:34,619 --> 00:21:37,859 S2: former colleagues no doubt, will have you know, they'll they'll 428 00:21:37,859 --> 00:21:38,659 S2: take their own counsel. 429 00:21:38,859 --> 00:21:41,820 S3: How do you think the PM would be thinking about 430 00:21:42,500 --> 00:21:45,660 S3: this change politically? I mean, he's totally ascendant Liberal Party 431 00:21:45,700 --> 00:21:48,060 S3: just blowing itself up. But he did have a difficult summer, 432 00:21:48,060 --> 00:21:51,220 S3: and it proved that he can get into get into 433 00:21:51,619 --> 00:21:54,419 S3: a poor polling situation more quickly than he would have realized, 434 00:21:54,420 --> 00:21:56,780 S3: perhaps after that big win. How do you think he'd 435 00:21:56,820 --> 00:22:00,260 S3: be calculating the risk of going down this path? 436 00:22:00,300 --> 00:22:02,419 S2: I don't know if they're considering it. You know. 437 00:22:02,900 --> 00:22:04,500 S3: I know that they are. So I'll tell you. 438 00:22:04,980 --> 00:22:08,820 S2: Okay. Uh, well, you'd be looking at all the pros 439 00:22:08,820 --> 00:22:11,260 S2: and cons. You'd be weighing up the national interest to 440 00:22:11,260 --> 00:22:13,980 S2: be weighing up the impact on productivity. You'd be weighing 441 00:22:13,980 --> 00:22:16,699 S2: up what creates makes a fairer system for people to 442 00:22:16,700 --> 00:22:19,180 S2: work harder. I mean, that would be the test you'd apply. 443 00:22:19,340 --> 00:22:21,540 S2: What incentive in anything you do. And it's got to 444 00:22:21,540 --> 00:22:24,340 S2: be part of a big strategy is productivity. How do 445 00:22:24,340 --> 00:22:27,820 S2: you reward people for working harder in Australia? So you're 446 00:22:27,820 --> 00:22:31,410 S2: buying more houses isn't working harder. That's just using money 447 00:22:31,410 --> 00:22:34,770 S2: to make more money. Sure. That's that's legitimate. What you 448 00:22:34,770 --> 00:22:37,609 S2: want to do is tell your nurses on the night shift, 449 00:22:37,650 --> 00:22:41,969 S2: tell your team leaders, you know, in the, um, in businesses, 450 00:22:42,010 --> 00:22:46,690 S2: your your foremen, supervisors at warehouses tell your tradies you 451 00:22:46,730 --> 00:22:48,770 S2: work harder, you're going to keep more of what you earn. 452 00:22:49,010 --> 00:22:50,770 S1: Mhm. It seems to me they're going to have to 453 00:22:50,770 --> 00:22:53,810 S1: have some sort of budget trimming sort of policies as well, 454 00:22:53,850 --> 00:22:55,649 S1: because otherwise they won't be able to pay for. 455 00:22:55,730 --> 00:22:57,770 S2: Well the big issues, the big issues inflation. So they're 456 00:22:57,770 --> 00:22:58,490 S2: going to cut right. 457 00:22:58,530 --> 00:23:00,010 S1: That's right. So they're going to have to cut as well. 458 00:23:00,010 --> 00:23:03,650 S1: But that's maybe a discussion for another podcast. Um, do 459 00:23:03,650 --> 00:23:06,570 S1: you think in terms of the ructions within the Liberal 460 00:23:06,570 --> 00:23:11,210 S1: National Coalition at this moment of recording, do you think 461 00:23:11,210 --> 00:23:14,530 S1: that we're looking at a historic rearrangement of, you know, 462 00:23:14,570 --> 00:23:18,290 S1: the right wing of Australian politics? Can the liberals fight 463 00:23:18,290 --> 00:23:19,770 S1: their way out of this? I just want to go 464 00:23:19,770 --> 00:23:21,690 S1: to you both really quickly on that. 465 00:23:21,970 --> 00:23:24,010 S3: Well, in terms of if they do split in a 466 00:23:24,010 --> 00:23:26,490 S3: long term sense, you know, there are people in the 467 00:23:26,490 --> 00:23:31,040 S3: Liberal Party worried about a 1950s labour style moment where 468 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,000 S3: the centre right fractures for a longer period of time 469 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,720 S3: and that entrenches Labour dominance. I suspect that I suspect 470 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,200 S3: the coalition will not be apart for that long. I 471 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:39,920 S3: don't think it will be patched up this week. I mean, 472 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,080 S3: the absurdity of the back and forth between Susan Lee 473 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:46,000 S3: and David Littleproud is is slightly nauseating, and the squabbling 474 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,760 S3: over process and party procedure is really difficult to follow. 475 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,600 S3: But there's a personality dispute at the heart of it 476 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,120 S3: between the two leaders. They don't get along and they're 477 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:59,160 S3: both boxed themselves in and would struggle to reconcile because 478 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,879 S3: that will diminish their authority. So it won't be they 479 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:03,480 S3: won't get back together in the next few weeks, I 480 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,960 S3: don't think, but I suspect they'll patch it up before 481 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,200 S3: the next election. But if it is a longer term 482 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,560 S3: split bill, and given what One Nation is doing at 483 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,240 S3: the moment, how do you see the centre right faring 484 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:14,639 S3: for the next period? 485 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,800 S2: Well, the right of Australian politics have split in the past. 486 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:22,240 S2: Menzies only founded the Liberal Party just over 80 years ago. 487 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,840 S2: It's Don Chipp and some of the liberals split in 488 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,070 S2: the 70s. Um, political parties do split. That's the first thing. 489 00:24:31,109 --> 00:24:34,470 S2: So it's not unknown. The second thing is underestimate Pauline 490 00:24:34,470 --> 00:24:36,550 S2: Hanson and Barnaby Joyce at your peril. 491 00:24:36,950 --> 00:24:37,350 S1: Okay. 492 00:24:37,670 --> 00:24:40,990 S2: They are saying things which a lot of people just 493 00:24:40,990 --> 00:24:43,990 S2: agree with. Like. Like it or not, that's just what 494 00:24:43,990 --> 00:24:46,550 S2: it is. And they have a sense also that these 495 00:24:46,550 --> 00:24:49,870 S2: two are not going to change their convictions to suit 496 00:24:49,910 --> 00:24:52,830 S2: a particular issue. So, you know, I talk to old 497 00:24:52,830 --> 00:24:55,670 S2: members of my union who I used to organise in 498 00:24:55,670 --> 00:24:59,070 S2: the bush. They've always voted labor, but they're thinking about 499 00:24:59,109 --> 00:25:01,350 S2: other things, you know, whether or not that's wise, that's 500 00:25:01,350 --> 00:25:02,110 S2: up to them. 501 00:25:02,150 --> 00:25:04,110 S1: So what do they say is the appeal of one 502 00:25:04,109 --> 00:25:05,550 S1: nation if they're interested in one nation? 503 00:25:05,590 --> 00:25:08,350 S2: I think they just think that Hanson calls us as 504 00:25:08,510 --> 00:25:12,430 S2: it is. Now, the thing is, saying, everything that you 505 00:25:12,430 --> 00:25:14,950 S2: think in your head aloud isn't necessarily what people do. 506 00:25:15,070 --> 00:25:16,709 S2: And there's a good reason why we don't. Because you 507 00:25:16,710 --> 00:25:19,270 S2: then think about it. But without getting into who's right 508 00:25:19,270 --> 00:25:21,910 S2: and who's wrong, she has some appeal. So I think 509 00:25:21,910 --> 00:25:24,550 S2: the coalition need to be careful of that. You know, 510 00:25:24,590 --> 00:25:26,270 S2: I'm not going to predict the demise of the Liberal 511 00:25:26,380 --> 00:25:30,300 S2: Party or the National Party. But I would say this 512 00:25:30,300 --> 00:25:33,500 S2: is a serious issue. This is it's you know, if 513 00:25:33,500 --> 00:25:36,740 S2: it goes one way, it's sort of like an extinct 514 00:25:36,780 --> 00:25:39,820 S2: planet extinction level event for the coalition. So they need 515 00:25:40,020 --> 00:25:41,820 S2: they're going to need to get their act together quickly. 516 00:25:41,820 --> 00:25:44,420 S2: I would have thought. But the real challenge, I think, 517 00:25:44,420 --> 00:25:47,740 S2: for labor is that with the coalition being at, you know, 518 00:25:47,780 --> 00:25:50,580 S2: at sixes and sevens, we've got to be careful that 519 00:25:50,619 --> 00:25:54,620 S2: it's a good government needs a strong opposition. And one 520 00:25:54,619 --> 00:25:57,180 S2: of the anxieties I feel for some of my colleagues 521 00:25:57,180 --> 00:25:59,380 S2: is that what if the Liberal vote falls, that they 522 00:25:59,380 --> 00:26:01,940 S2: no longer come second in some of our safer seats, 523 00:26:02,260 --> 00:26:06,340 S2: and there's a sort of militia of third parties come together. So, 524 00:26:06,740 --> 00:26:09,380 S2: you know, I think it's what Australians want is stability 525 00:26:09,380 --> 00:26:13,020 S2: and focus on cost of living. Coalition disunity may be 526 00:26:13,020 --> 00:26:14,899 S2: good for some memes, and there were some pretty good 527 00:26:14,900 --> 00:26:18,260 S2: one liners in Parliament. But when you've got cost of 528 00:26:18,260 --> 00:26:22,260 S2: living interest rates, I think, um, a strong opposition is 529 00:26:22,260 --> 00:26:23,580 S2: necessary for a strong government. 530 00:26:23,820 --> 00:26:25,970 S1: Yeah, that's a very good point. And it's interesting to 531 00:26:25,970 --> 00:26:29,530 S1: note as well that there are perhaps hidden dangers for 532 00:26:29,530 --> 00:26:31,530 S1: Labour at a time when they really seem like they're 533 00:26:31,570 --> 00:26:34,450 S1: sort of untouchable. And Albanese seems like the luckiest man 534 00:26:34,450 --> 00:26:37,570 S1: in parliament. Guys, that's been so fascinating. Bill, we love 535 00:26:37,570 --> 00:26:40,090 S1: having you on. We hope you'll come on again soon. 536 00:26:40,250 --> 00:26:43,369 S1: And thanks a lot, Paul, and we'll talk to you soon, Bill. 537 00:26:43,890 --> 00:26:44,290 S3: See you guys. 538 00:26:44,330 --> 00:26:45,129 S2: Bye for now. Bye. 539 00:26:49,210 --> 00:26:51,169 S1: You can read all of our political news on our 540 00:26:51,170 --> 00:26:59,010 S1: websites theage.com.au or SMS. Today's episode was produced by Kai 541 00:26:59,050 --> 00:27:02,610 S1: Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is 542 00:27:02,609 --> 00:27:05,930 S1: Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy 543 00:27:05,930 --> 00:27:10,330 S1: and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, please follow Inside Politics 544 00:27:10,330 --> 00:27:12,730 S1: and leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. 545 00:27:13,210 --> 00:27:15,450 S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley. Thank you for listening.