WEBVTT - The Sunday Showdown with Adam Creighton

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<v Speaker 1>Now on weekends the Sunday Sweet looking at the stories

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<v Speaker 1>of the week. Look, no shortage of issues to rip

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<v Speaker 1>into on planet Earth right now. Who better to do

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<v Speaker 1>it with than the great Adam Crichton, formerly of Washington

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<v Speaker 1>d C And the Australian newspaper and now Chief Economists

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<v Speaker 1>at the Institute of Public Affairs. And he's on the line.

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<v Speaker 1>Good I Adam, good morning. Lovely to talk to you, mate,

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<v Speaker 1>Lovely to talk to you. You wrote brilliantly about net

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<v Speaker 1>zero through the week. I just had a listener told

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<v Speaker 1>me about his new power prices, and you know, we've

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<v Speaker 1>all had to live through this. The government think they're

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<v Speaker 1>heroes because they give us some of our money back

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<v Speaker 1>to help pay for the very big bills that they've created.

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<v Speaker 1>But the question of net zero has become key here

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<v Speaker 1>because a proportion of the coalition, name with the Nationals,

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<v Speaker 1>is saying we've got to get the hell out of this.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's not just Nationals, as you pointed out through

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<v Speaker 1>the week former Labor British Prime Minister Tony there that's

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<v Speaker 1>called the net zero policy doomed to fail due to

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<v Speaker 1>its irrationality. It's a really big issue. Why do we

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<v Speaker 1>need to give net zero the flick.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, look, certainly I think we may have turned

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<v Speaker 2>the corner very slowly on all the net zero nonsense.

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<v Speaker 2>As you pointed out, a former British Prime Minister Attorney

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<v Speaker 2>players come out against the new South Wales Nationals, South

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<v Speaker 2>Australian Liberals, UK Conservative Party have all dumped it. Now. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>I think more and more people are realizing it's just

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<v Speaker 2>a massive tax on the economy and it totally restructures

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<v Speaker 2>the economy in a terrible way. You lose your manufacturing sector.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, as you pointed out earlier, power prices go

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<v Speaker 2>through the roof, so you have huge job losses, huge

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<v Speaker 2>increases not just in the direct power costs, but all

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<v Speaker 2>the costs of food, the food and the supermarkets because

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<v Speaker 2>obviously fuel goes up, transport costs are higher, and look,

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<v Speaker 2>you know it's you know, we keep hearing that we're

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<v Speaker 2>on the way to the transition, but really we're not.

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<v Speaker 2>There isn't really much of a transition. We're still totally

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<v Speaker 2>dependent on fossil fuels for our energy, but the rollout

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<v Speaker 2>of wind and solar around the country is just massively

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<v Speaker 2>increasing the costs overall because the extra we have to

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<v Speaker 2>spend on transmission networks and they drive the old fossil

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<v Speaker 2>fuel reliable power stations out of business. So look a

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<v Speaker 2>total mess. And I really do hope the coalition formally

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<v Speaker 2>dumps it and goes to the next election to promise

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<v Speaker 2>to unwind it. Otherwise we're going to face more and

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<v Speaker 2>more economic destruction in this country.

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<v Speaker 1>We love to or certain parts of the commentariat love

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<v Speaker 1>to talk Australia down. But here's the thing, Adam, surely

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<v Speaker 1>we obviously produce eight percentage. I think it is one

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<v Speaker 1>percent of global emissions. Countries like the United States, China,

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<v Speaker 1>India and Russia they dwarf what we do. But it

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<v Speaker 1>seems are right and saying it's Australia. I think you

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<v Speaker 1>might have said this, Australia, Canada and the EU want

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<v Speaker 1>to play by the rules, but the other countries large

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<v Speaker 1>emitters that they're just paying lip service to them.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, look it's just a joke. I think it's fallen.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Australia's share has actually fallen from one point

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<v Speaker 2>five percent about fifteen years ago to one point one percent.

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<v Speaker 2>So even if we have our missions, it barely makes

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<v Speaker 2>any difference at all. So we're just engaged in this

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<v Speaker 2>huge economic self harm, self sacrifice, if you like, for

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<v Speaker 2>no reason. I mean China and India, just those two countries,

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<v Speaker 2>their share of global emissions is now forty percent, and

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<v Speaker 2>even the US is only thirteen percent. And China and

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<v Speaker 2>India are not paying any attention at all to these

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<v Speaker 2>so called Litzier goals. They're rolling out hundreds of newqualified

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<v Speaker 2>power stations that also, by the way, building lots of

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear power stations too in China, which is sensible, but

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<v Speaker 2>their emissions are going up massively. I mean, you have

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<v Speaker 2>countries like you know, large countries like Britain, they have

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<v Speaker 2>reduced their annual emissions by about two hundred and forty

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<v Speaker 2>million tons of carbon dioxide a year, that's over the

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<v Speaker 2>past twenty years, but China has increased it's by one

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<v Speaker 2>point nine billion. So I mean, so you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>UK is going these huge efforts, massive massive sacrifice, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's not making a scrap of difference to the global

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<v Speaker 2>carbon emissions. And you know, net zero in the US

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<v Speaker 2>is obviously not being not being pursued under the Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 2>And as you said earlier, it's really just US and

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<v Speaker 2>the EU and maybe Canada and if you wait all

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<v Speaker 2>of that by GDP, it's about fifteen percent of the

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<v Speaker 2>world is paying any attention to net zero. So I think,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we're just a laughing stock. And you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the idea that we're going to inspire other countries to

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<v Speaker 2>change their mind, I think is just ludicrous.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, I'm sure that that is right, one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>percent correct, Adam. Going back to your Washington d C days,

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<v Speaker 1>all those probably months ago, Now, well, what's what you

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<v Speaker 1>read on Trump and Iran is he and he's moved

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<v Speaker 1>those B two bombers. So he's obviously making it clear

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<v Speaker 1>for anyone who's paying attention. Hey, I'm not just dittle

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<v Speaker 1>dabbling around here. You know we are serious. But do

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<v Speaker 1>you imagine he'll he'll assist Israel or what do you think?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, look, it's you know, it's hard to predict this.

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<v Speaker 2>He's got huge, this huge domestic political problem where I

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<v Speaker 2>would say probably more than half of his base, his magabase,

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<v Speaker 2>his fervent supporters, they don't want to get involved. They

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<v Speaker 2>don't want the US getting involved in other wars. They're

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<v Speaker 2>often sympathetic to Israel, but they just don't want they

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<v Speaker 2>don't want Americans to die and spend more money in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East anymore, but says, you know, I'm sure

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<v Speaker 2>your listeners know there's been a series of failed wars

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<v Speaker 2>in the Middle East over many years that have cost

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<v Speaker 2>the US a lot and really haven't achieved a great deal.

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<v Speaker 2>But on the other hand, you know this, Trump has

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<v Speaker 2>said many times that Iran can't have a nuclear weapon,

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<v Speaker 2>and their administration there in Taran has said many times

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<v Speaker 2>that they intend to do just that. So it puts

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<v Speaker 2>the US present in a very difficult position. He has

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<v Speaker 2>moved those bombers. It doesn't necessarily mean anything. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think we won't know until something happens that will happen suddenly. Probably.

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<v Speaker 2>You know. My understanding is Israel wants the US to join, obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>but look, it's a it's a very vexed problem, and

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not you know, I'm glad, I'm not. I'm glad

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not making the decision.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, a tough one me both. Now, today we read

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<v Speaker 1>in the Nine Papers that Treasurer Jim Charmers, who we

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<v Speaker 1>call here JIMBO, has revealed the recently released book Abundance,

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<v Speaker 1>which argues progressives need to rethink their overly rules based

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<v Speaker 1>approach to making the change they want had been a

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<v Speaker 1>wake up call for the left of politics. Now you

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<v Speaker 1>know it's been it's been the catch cry of center

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<v Speaker 1>right governments to have smaller government. This is not this

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<v Speaker 1>is not a new thing. But it took the work

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<v Speaker 1>of American journalists as a reclient and Derek Thompson to

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<v Speaker 1>convince the treasurer here, do you actually think the unions

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<v Speaker 1>to let him get rid of red tape if it

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<v Speaker 1>reduces their power? I can't see it.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, no, look, I can't see it. And actually it's

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<v Speaker 2>this labor government that has massively increased regulation so much.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, the IPA has done a lot of research

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<v Speaker 2>on on the growth and regulation over the years, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's just extraordinary to see the figures. I mean, we've

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<v Speaker 2>just had just over the last three years, we've had

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<v Speaker 2>an increase in the number of regulatory roles, if you like,

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<v Speaker 2>in the federal government. So he's bureaucract's employed full time

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<v Speaker 2>to enforce regulation that's gone up nineteen percent to one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and seven thousand staff. That's the match. So this

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<v Speaker 2>is your things like well obviously net zero and a

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<v Speaker 2>huge raft of regulations that go with that. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>we don't talk much about the industrial relation system anymore,

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<v Speaker 2>but that is extremely regulated, and you know that entails

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<v Speaker 2>hundreds and thousands of regulations too, so you know, and

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<v Speaker 2>we haven't even got to the tax system yet. So look,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, he's right that we do need to reduce

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<v Speaker 2>regulation obviously. I mean we're in a period of extremely

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<v Speaker 2>lackluster growth, extremely low productivity growth. You know, we've had

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<v Speaker 2>declining living standards now, you know, for most of the

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<v Speaker 2>last three years. So something has to be done. But

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<v Speaker 2>you know, I must say I'm a little bit skeptical

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<v Speaker 2>that the this government will be able to do it.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, let's hope they can. They have a

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<v Speaker 2>big majority. Should try to do some good things.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, exactly. And the Productivity round Table which is upcoming,

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<v Speaker 1>do you say anything come out of that. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we had the Jobs and Skill Summit when they were

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<v Speaker 1>elected last time. I'd argue nothing much came out of that.

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<v Speaker 1>Will anything come out of this.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, look, let's hope. So. But I'm a bit worried

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<v Speaker 2>the Productivity Commission. I'm a little bit worried that it's

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<v Speaker 2>been too captured by the left. I mean, it doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>seem to advocate for lower taxation anymore. It's more partial

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<v Speaker 2>to spending growth. And indeed, this whole debate, we have

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<v Speaker 2>to remember spending is the problem. We need to reduce that. Sure,

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<v Speaker 2>we do need to change how we raise revenue because

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<v Speaker 2>we do it in a very inefficient way. But spending

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<v Speaker 2>growth is out of control. It's growing far faster than

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<v Speaker 2>population growth or inflation. You know, you've got the NDIS

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<v Speaker 2>in particular. You know it's growing almost ten percent a year.

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<v Speaker 2>It's completely out of control. So I do worry that

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<v Speaker 2>this whole chat of tax reform will just lead the

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<v Speaker 2>higher taxes. But we do need to simplify the system,

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<v Speaker 2>reduce the overall rates. I mean, you know, one fact

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<v Speaker 2>I always say is our top marginal tax rate is

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<v Speaker 2>higher than China's and they're supposed to be a communist country,

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<v Speaker 2>So what does that say about us? That's the case,

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<v Speaker 2>So we need to get those rates down to encourage

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<v Speaker 2>people to work and say and also, you know one

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<v Speaker 2>thing that's not talked about in my sense is a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of bright young Australians are leaving Australia to go

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<v Speaker 2>work in the US or work in other jurisdictions where

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<v Speaker 2>they pay far less tax because it's just so hard

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<v Speaker 2>to get ahead here because of the tax burd Yeah, great.

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<v Speaker 1>To chat, Adam. Have a terrific weekend. Thanks so much

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<v Speaker 1>for your time, mate. Yeah thanks, lluy good on your

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<v Speaker 1>Adam Crichton, chief economist at the Institute of Public Affairs,