1 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:04,310 S1: A listener production. 2 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,889 S2: Article five of the NATO treaty states that an armed 3 00:00:09,890 --> 00:00:14,900 S2: attack against any one NATO nation will be considered an 4 00:00:14,900 --> 00:00:19,460 S2: attack against them all. Yet, Donald Trump has said that 5 00:00:19,460 --> 00:00:23,690 S2: Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, can do what he likes to 6 00:00:23,690 --> 00:00:29,650 S2: any NATO country that doesn't pay enough towards defense. Trump's 7 00:00:29,650 --> 00:00:34,000 S2: Republicans blocked essential aid to Ukraine for months this year, 8 00:00:34,180 --> 00:00:38,980 S2: giving Putin a military advantage which he exploited in his 9 00:00:38,979 --> 00:00:46,180 S2: recent offensive towards Kharkiv. Trump's rhetoric is consistent. America under 10 00:00:46,180 --> 00:00:51,640 S2: Biden is defending other nations borders while failing to defend 11 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:52,480 S2: its own. 12 00:00:52,510 --> 00:00:56,230 S3: We're living in a third world country. We have no borders. 13 00:00:56,230 --> 00:00:58,750 S3: They're pouring in by the millions, and they're coming from 14 00:00:58,750 --> 00:01:03,010 S3: prisons and jails and mental institutions and insane asylums, and 15 00:01:03,010 --> 00:01:06,580 S3: they're terrorists. Massive numbers of terrorists are coming in. We 16 00:01:06,580 --> 00:01:08,620 S3: have no idea who they are. The only thing we 17 00:01:08,620 --> 00:01:11,830 S3: know is they're tough as hell and they're criminals. Many, 18 00:01:11,830 --> 00:01:13,390 S3: many criminals are coming in. 19 00:01:15,310 --> 00:01:19,539 S2: The old Republican Party was for free trade. Trump is 20 00:01:19,540 --> 00:01:24,580 S2: for protectionism. He proudly called himself Tariff Man and in 21 00:01:24,580 --> 00:01:29,950 S2: his 2017 inauguration speech, framed his fight to make America 22 00:01:29,950 --> 00:01:35,290 S2: great again with these words Buy American and hire America. 23 00:01:35,860 --> 00:01:41,450 S2: In these turbulent times for trade, international relations and defence. 24 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:45,020 S2: Where does this leave the Europeans, and should they be 25 00:01:45,020 --> 00:01:51,020 S2: left to defend Ukraine on their own? Swedish born politician 26 00:01:51,020 --> 00:01:56,690 S2: Cecilia malmstrom was elected to the European Parliament in 1999, 27 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,890 S2: and later served as European Commissioner for trade and as 28 00:02:00,890 --> 00:02:06,110 S2: European Commissioner for Home Affairs. When Trump was elected, Cecilia 29 00:02:06,110 --> 00:02:10,520 S2: was promoting free trade around the world, including an EU 30 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,880 S2: Australia free trade deal, which is where we first met. 31 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,190 S2: Cecilia joins me now. 32 00:02:16,220 --> 00:02:18,560 S4: Well, thank you. First of all, Malcolm, to to invite 33 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,570 S4: you into this podcast. It's a pleasure and an honour. 34 00:02:20,570 --> 00:02:21,980 S4: And so great to see you again. 35 00:02:22,550 --> 00:02:27,589 S2: What will a second Trump administration mean for Europe, both 36 00:02:27,590 --> 00:02:30,290 S2: on the trade side first and then also from a 37 00:02:30,290 --> 00:02:31,639 S2: security point of view. 38 00:02:31,669 --> 00:02:34,550 S4: We have four years of experience of Trump, and he 39 00:02:34,550 --> 00:02:38,030 S4: was in many ways a shock. We survived. And then 40 00:02:38,030 --> 00:02:41,480 S4: the last four years have been spent trying to build 41 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,180 S4: up trust and trying to see what what can be done. 42 00:02:44,180 --> 00:02:48,260 S4: To be perfectly honest. Also, the Biden administration is quite protectionist, 43 00:02:48,260 --> 00:02:50,810 S4: doesn't want to do trade deals. He doesn't consider trade 44 00:02:50,810 --> 00:02:53,970 S4: deals in the in the traditional sense, like market access 45 00:02:53,970 --> 00:02:57,900 S4: and getting rid of tariffs and standardizations and so on 46 00:02:57,900 --> 00:03:02,730 S4: to be something that they are engaging in. So trade wise, 47 00:03:02,730 --> 00:03:04,770 S4: we have not advanced so much, but at least we're 48 00:03:04,770 --> 00:03:07,590 S4: talking to each other trying to identify items where we 49 00:03:07,590 --> 00:03:10,770 S4: can move forward. I think a lot of that will 50 00:03:10,770 --> 00:03:14,100 S4: be rolled back. If if Trump comes back, he has 51 00:03:14,100 --> 00:03:17,910 S4: already said that he will introduce a flat 10% tariff, 10% 52 00:03:17,910 --> 00:03:20,280 S4: tariffs on everything with the rest of the world, and 53 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,830 S4: that would include Australia as well, I guess, and an 54 00:03:22,830 --> 00:03:26,940 S4: additional up to 50% with trade with with China. 55 00:03:27,270 --> 00:03:30,870 S5: The opening salvos of a trade war have now been fired. 56 00:03:30,900 --> 00:03:35,640 S5: The UK steel industry targeted by Trump's tariffs. And today 57 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,240 S5: the prime Minister fired back. In a statement, Theresa may 58 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:43,460 S5: said I am deeply disappointed at the unjustified decision by 59 00:03:43,460 --> 00:03:44,119 S5: the US. 60 00:03:44,150 --> 00:03:47,780 S6: A defiant Donald Trump fulfilled a promise that helped make 61 00:03:47,780 --> 00:03:48,680 S6: him president. 62 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:53,510 S3: The American steel aluminum industry has been ravaged by aggressive 63 00:03:53,510 --> 00:03:58,970 S3: foreign trade practices. It's really an assault on our country. 64 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:03,470 S3: Many of the countries that treat us the worst on 65 00:04:03,470 --> 00:04:07,900 S3: trade and on military are our allies, as they like 66 00:04:07,900 --> 00:04:08,740 S3: to call them. 67 00:04:11,980 --> 00:04:14,440 S4: This will, of course, have huge implications for the whole 68 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:18,370 S4: global economy. And then we know that the sort of 69 00:04:18,370 --> 00:04:21,909 S4: trade war or trade tensions with China will probably escalate 70 00:04:21,910 --> 00:04:25,419 S4: even further. They will probably be pressure on Europe. We've 71 00:04:25,420 --> 00:04:27,460 S4: been spending quite a lot of time to try to 72 00:04:27,460 --> 00:04:32,310 S4: solve the old problem that we have with the steel 73 00:04:32,310 --> 00:04:35,279 S4: and aluminium tariffs that we're trying to get rid of. 74 00:04:35,670 --> 00:04:39,330 S4: And that process has not been so successful still, but 75 00:04:39,330 --> 00:04:42,239 S4: at least there's a dialogue I think that will totally 76 00:04:42,630 --> 00:04:48,150 S4: pause if Trump comes back. In Europe, we have a 77 00:04:48,150 --> 00:04:52,050 S4: war just around the corner. Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine 78 00:04:52,050 --> 00:04:55,800 S4: causing so much humanitarian suffering. And it's also a threat 79 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:59,010 S4: to it's an existential threat for Europe, because we don't 80 00:04:59,010 --> 00:05:02,730 S4: think Putin will stay with Ukraine if if he would 81 00:05:02,730 --> 00:05:05,700 S4: happen to, to win there. And we saw how difficult 82 00:05:05,700 --> 00:05:09,300 S4: it was to get the last package of support through Congress. 83 00:05:09,300 --> 00:05:12,150 S7: President Biden turned up the pressure on Congress to pass 84 00:05:12,150 --> 00:05:15,690 S7: a multi-billion dollar foreign aid package that has been deadlocked 85 00:05:15,690 --> 00:05:18,440 S7: for months, with the funding bill being blocked in the 86 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:22,159 S7: US Senate. It's unlikely for Ukraine to get that additional 87 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,530 S7: American aid by the end of the year, which is 88 00:05:24,529 --> 00:05:26,539 S7: what President Biden wanted during. 89 00:05:26,540 --> 00:05:31,910 S8: A recent presidential debate. Trump criticized the extensive financial support 90 00:05:31,910 --> 00:05:36,680 S8: provided by the US to Ukraine, suggesting that the war 91 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:38,990 S8: is not being won by Kyiv. 92 00:05:38,990 --> 00:05:41,660 S9: On this vote, the yeas are 311 and the nays 93 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:46,390 S9: are 112. The bill is passed. The House will be 94 00:05:46,390 --> 00:05:47,140 S9: in order. 95 00:05:47,170 --> 00:05:51,100 S10: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has thanked everyone who has been 96 00:05:51,100 --> 00:05:54,610 S10: fighting so hard for the US military aid package adopted 97 00:05:54,610 --> 00:05:55,750 S10: on Saturday. 98 00:05:57,339 --> 00:06:00,460 S4: Probably that could be the last package if Trump comes 99 00:06:00,460 --> 00:06:03,909 S4: back as well. And Ukraine, and therefore Europe needs the 100 00:06:03,910 --> 00:06:07,390 S4: American backing there and then we have the whole climate issue. 101 00:06:07,420 --> 00:06:09,969 S4: How can we work together with the US to try 102 00:06:09,970 --> 00:06:13,839 S4: to decarbonise our economies? How can we find ways of cooperation? 103 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,049 S4: How can we find ways of cooperating when it comes 104 00:06:17,050 --> 00:06:20,679 S4: to clean energy, when it comes to access to to 105 00:06:21,100 --> 00:06:23,589 S4: rare earth minerals and metals that we need in the 106 00:06:23,589 --> 00:06:28,210 S4: green transition, etc.? And all this is, of course, under 107 00:06:28,210 --> 00:06:31,200 S4: scrutiny now that there might be a change in the 108 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:31,680 S4: white House. 109 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,880 S2: If Trump effectively abandons Ukraine. I mean, is is Europe 110 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,450 S2: in a position to step up, to give Ukraine the 111 00:06:39,450 --> 00:06:44,460 S2: means to continue to resist Putin? Or is Europe unable 112 00:06:44,460 --> 00:06:48,510 S2: to support Ukraine without American support? 113 00:06:48,510 --> 00:06:51,450 S4: Well, we are already supporting Ukraine a lot, and Europe 114 00:06:51,450 --> 00:06:55,250 S4: has given much more economic support and political support, and 115 00:06:55,250 --> 00:06:59,090 S4: we also have received 4 or 5 million refugees in Ukraine. 116 00:06:59,089 --> 00:07:02,660 S4: So of course, the American, especially the American military support 117 00:07:02,660 --> 00:07:05,840 S4: is very, very important for Ukraine. So we are now 118 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,690 S4: seeing how can we step that up, but also not Europe. 119 00:07:08,690 --> 00:07:11,270 S4: We have a lot of alliances in the world. We 120 00:07:11,270 --> 00:07:16,640 S4: have Norway, UK, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore. 121 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,180 S4: There are lots of countries also supporting Ukraine, Canada, so 122 00:07:20,180 --> 00:07:22,070 S4: we will have to see with them how we can 123 00:07:22,070 --> 00:07:25,340 S4: step up, because forcing Ukraine to surrender, that will mean, 124 00:07:25,340 --> 00:07:30,020 S4: of course, giving up territory and that that in a 125 00:07:30,020 --> 00:07:33,590 S4: sense will be, will be telling Russia that, well, you know, 126 00:07:33,590 --> 00:07:37,910 S4: invading a sovereign country against all international laws and tradition 127 00:07:37,910 --> 00:07:41,480 S4: is okay. And I don't think Ukrainians are ready to 128 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:45,430 S4: do that. And Europe will stand behind President Zelensky and 129 00:07:45,430 --> 00:07:47,350 S4: the Ukrainian people as long as we can. But it 130 00:07:47,350 --> 00:07:52,180 S4: will be difficult to find that military support not only 131 00:07:52,180 --> 00:07:55,180 S4: in terms of, of of money. It's also, you know, 132 00:07:55,180 --> 00:07:58,090 S4: the ammunition we have given so much to Ukraine. So, 133 00:07:58,090 --> 00:08:00,580 S4: so we're already running out of of some of the 134 00:08:00,580 --> 00:08:03,190 S4: military materiel and equipment and ammunition. 135 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:08,220 S2: The European Union as an economic entity is vastly bigger 136 00:08:08,220 --> 00:08:11,370 S2: than Russia, as we know, but of course it hasn't 137 00:08:11,370 --> 00:08:14,640 S2: invested sufficiently in the military. Do you think if the 138 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,460 S2: Americans were to say, look, this is your problem, this 139 00:08:17,460 --> 00:08:20,970 S2: is a European problem, you know, you've got to take 140 00:08:20,970 --> 00:08:24,660 S2: responsibility for it. Do you think Europe's capable of stepping up? 141 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,380 S4: Well, it will be difficult economically. We are stepping up 142 00:08:28,500 --> 00:08:32,220 S4: and preparing new sanctions package vis a vis Russia, but 143 00:08:32,220 --> 00:08:36,390 S4: also stepping up our economic, uh, support and also starting 144 00:08:36,390 --> 00:08:38,610 S4: even if this will not happen today, but also the 145 00:08:38,610 --> 00:08:42,390 S4: process of of inviting Ukraine to become a member of 146 00:08:42,390 --> 00:08:47,070 S4: the European Union eventually. But Ukraine is a neighbor to NATO, 147 00:08:47,070 --> 00:08:51,510 S4: and NATO is very much the US. Um, it will 148 00:08:51,510 --> 00:08:55,520 S4: be difficult to without us in the NATO. So Ukraine 149 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:59,330 S4: is in the interest of NATO and thereby the US 150 00:08:59,330 --> 00:09:03,050 S4: as well. And many wise Republicans also realize this. There 151 00:09:03,050 --> 00:09:07,010 S4: was a large support, finally, in Congress among the Republican parties, 152 00:09:07,010 --> 00:09:10,700 S4: that that this is our common interest. It is geographically 153 00:09:10,700 --> 00:09:12,650 S4: a little bit further away from the US than it 154 00:09:12,650 --> 00:09:14,660 S4: is for us, especially for me, who live in Sweden, 155 00:09:14,660 --> 00:09:19,840 S4: very close to Ukraine. But it is an existential threat. 156 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,350 S4: And even if you try to ignore the Ukrainian conflict, 157 00:09:23,350 --> 00:09:25,450 S4: I mean there will be others. There will be Georgia, 158 00:09:25,450 --> 00:09:27,969 S4: there will be Moldova. And we see how Russia is 159 00:09:27,970 --> 00:09:33,700 S4: cooperating with politicians and with forces in Serbia, in Hungary, 160 00:09:33,700 --> 00:09:36,190 S4: in different parts of other countries as well. So it 161 00:09:36,190 --> 00:09:38,470 S4: will be a threat also to NATO and thereby to 162 00:09:38,470 --> 00:09:39,100 S4: the US. 163 00:09:39,850 --> 00:09:42,099 S2: You've mentioned you live in Sweden and of course you 164 00:09:42,100 --> 00:09:44,950 S2: are a Swedish. And, uh, you had a whole political 165 00:09:44,950 --> 00:09:48,520 S2: career in Sweden before you became a European Trade Commissioner. 166 00:09:48,550 --> 00:09:54,309 S2: How do you feel as a Swede about Sweden reversing 167 00:09:54,309 --> 00:09:58,720 S2: centuries of neutrality to actually join NATO? 168 00:09:58,750 --> 00:10:02,860 S11: Sweden has formally joined NATO as the 32nd member of 169 00:10:02,860 --> 00:10:07,079 S11: the transatlantic military alliance, Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying 170 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,590 S11: this is a historic moment for Sweden. Our NATO alliance 171 00:10:10,590 --> 00:10:13,560 S11: is now stronger and larger than it's ever been following. 172 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:17,640 S12: Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Sweden and Finland both abandoned long 173 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,120 S12: standing neutrality that was a hallmark of the Nordic state's 174 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:22,590 S12: Cold War foreign policy. 175 00:10:22,620 --> 00:10:26,460 S13: Russia will stay a serious threat to the Euro-Atlantic security 176 00:10:26,460 --> 00:10:30,360 S13: for the foreseeable future. It was in this light that 177 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:35,330 S13: Sweden applied to join the NATO defence alliance. 178 00:10:36,020 --> 00:10:38,390 S4: Well, that was quite a surprise. I have been in 179 00:10:38,390 --> 00:10:41,900 S4: favour of Sweden joining Naito for for decades, but we 180 00:10:41,900 --> 00:10:47,479 S4: have been a small but steady minority of like say 15, 20%. 181 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:49,730 S4: And had you asked me three years ago or even 182 00:10:49,730 --> 00:10:52,640 S4: two years ago, so when will Sweden join NATO? I said, well, sorry, 183 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,250 S4: it won't happen and I'm happy that we are in 184 00:10:55,250 --> 00:10:58,400 S4: now because you're always safer together. And now all the 185 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,190 S4: Nordic countries are there as well. But it's of course 186 00:11:01,190 --> 00:11:04,790 S4: sad that the reason for this was Russia's invasion to 187 00:11:04,790 --> 00:11:07,640 S4: Ukraine and to our neighbors. So when when Finland, who 188 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:11,300 S4: shares a very long border with Russia, changed also their 189 00:11:11,300 --> 00:11:15,470 S4: policy quite quickly. I think Swedes also realized that that 190 00:11:15,470 --> 00:11:19,000 S4: all neutrality maybe made sense once upon a time, but 191 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,340 S4: today it doesn't. And we are safer together. So I'm 192 00:11:21,340 --> 00:11:24,099 S4: very happy that we are in the NATO organization with 193 00:11:24,100 --> 00:11:26,800 S4: our friends and allies now, and hopefully we can contribute 194 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:27,280 S4: as well. 195 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,520 S2: Yes. Of goodwill, I mean, Sweden, Sweden is, uh, has 196 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:34,360 S2: a strong defense. It's a very strong defense capabilities and 197 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:38,319 S2: defense industry. Uh, I must say, I wish Australia had, uh, 198 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:42,220 S2: developed its own sovereign defence industries. Um. 199 00:11:44,309 --> 00:11:48,270 S4: We need to realize that the European economy is not 200 00:11:48,270 --> 00:11:51,990 S4: going very well. I mean, we are lagging after both 201 00:11:51,990 --> 00:11:54,150 S4: the US, China and many other countries when it comes 202 00:11:54,150 --> 00:11:57,510 S4: to innovation, when it comes to to growth, when it 203 00:11:57,510 --> 00:12:03,420 S4: comes to, um, you know, tech companies, AI companies and 204 00:12:03,420 --> 00:12:04,350 S4: so on, why do. 205 00:12:04,350 --> 00:12:08,719 S2: You think Europe is not performing better economically, say, than 206 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:14,660 S2: the United States? What I mean, and you identified technology, innovation, 207 00:12:14,660 --> 00:12:18,109 S2: you know, AI and other other areas. Why isn't Europe 208 00:12:18,110 --> 00:12:19,100 S2: doing better? 209 00:12:19,130 --> 00:12:23,990 S4: Well, there's not one single easy answer to that, of course. 210 00:12:23,990 --> 00:12:27,410 S4: I mean, I don't think Europe is dying. I mean, 211 00:12:27,410 --> 00:12:30,800 S4: my ten years in the commission, we have survived the 212 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:36,020 S4: euro crisis, the Greece crisis, the Brexit crisis, Trump one crisis, 213 00:12:36,110 --> 00:12:39,920 S4: the whole migration crisis, Covid crisis, and so on. And 214 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:43,550 S4: every time Europe has stepped up and been became stronger 215 00:12:43,550 --> 00:12:47,359 S4: out of this. But of course we are facing huge challenges. 216 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:51,679 S4: We have recovered, but less so after the Covid crisis. 217 00:12:51,980 --> 00:12:57,370 S4: We have been very good at setting rules and regulations. 218 00:12:57,370 --> 00:13:01,660 S4: Sometimes Europe says we are setting the standards, the Brussels effects, 219 00:13:01,660 --> 00:13:06,309 S4: but at the expense of innovation. We have something that 220 00:13:06,309 --> 00:13:09,250 S4: is unique in Europe and that many, many countries envy us, 221 00:13:09,250 --> 00:13:12,880 S4: which is the single market. It's the biggest single market 222 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:16,090 S4: in the whole world, 27 countries with the same rules. 223 00:13:16,210 --> 00:13:18,220 S4: And if you have access to that, you have access 224 00:13:18,220 --> 00:13:23,550 S4: to 450 million people or consumers or citizens or what 225 00:13:23,550 --> 00:13:26,250 S4: have you. But we haven't really shared this for the 226 00:13:26,250 --> 00:13:29,490 S4: last decades. We have not done what we should have 227 00:13:29,490 --> 00:13:33,990 S4: done on the internal market, facilitating with these boring things 228 00:13:34,170 --> 00:13:39,359 S4: such as standards and rules and authorization and public procurement processes, 229 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:43,800 S4: which really matters to companies, both European companies And companies 230 00:13:43,980 --> 00:13:46,530 S4: from foreign countries who come to invest. And that has 231 00:13:46,530 --> 00:13:48,930 S4: been going on for quite some time. And we need 232 00:13:48,929 --> 00:13:53,100 S4: to give our companies, especially the small companies, especially the small, 233 00:13:53,100 --> 00:13:56,970 S4: innovative digital AI companies, a feeling that Europe is really 234 00:13:56,970 --> 00:13:58,230 S4: worth investing in. 235 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:09,950 S2: When you look across the continent, the moment you've seen 236 00:14:09,950 --> 00:14:13,430 S2: our right wing populist parties, whether it is in Sweden 237 00:14:13,429 --> 00:14:17,569 S2: or Germany or France or Italy, some of them do 238 00:14:17,570 --> 00:14:20,750 S2: very well. Some of them win government. I mean, obviously, 239 00:14:20,750 --> 00:14:25,910 S2: we have Mr. Orban in Hungary with his illiberal democracy. 240 00:14:25,940 --> 00:14:29,450 S2: A lot of people would say it's barely a democracy nowadays. 241 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:34,190 S2: Meloni in in Italy and Le Pen in France, the 242 00:14:34,190 --> 00:14:38,090 S2: AfD in Germany and so on. At firstly, what do 243 00:14:38,090 --> 00:14:42,470 S2: you think has driven or, you know, prompted this right 244 00:14:42,470 --> 00:14:46,940 S2: wing populist movement? Is it all about immigration and resistance 245 00:14:46,940 --> 00:14:50,630 S2: to immigration? And also, what impact do you think a 246 00:14:50,630 --> 00:14:52,820 S2: second term of Trump is going to have on it? 247 00:14:52,850 --> 00:14:57,160 S4: Absolutely. I think they work together quite tightly, both in 248 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:01,360 S4: Europe and across the the Atlantic. They inspire each other, 249 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,600 S4: they fund each other, they support each other. And they 250 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:09,340 S4: share this admiration for strong leaders, notably Putin, which makes 251 00:15:09,340 --> 00:15:11,650 S4: it very dangerous in Europe as well. 252 00:15:11,860 --> 00:15:15,610 S14: We're talking about countries that do not share ideology. So 253 00:15:15,610 --> 00:15:21,360 S14: Communist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran. But they do share 254 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:25,320 S14: a common interest and the common interest is undermining us 255 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,710 S14: and us. I mean, America, Europe, the liberal world, the 256 00:15:28,710 --> 00:15:33,210 S14: democratic world. Increasingly, they've concluded that what benefits them is 257 00:15:33,210 --> 00:15:37,590 S14: the rise of illiberal and radical parties. When that happens, 258 00:15:37,590 --> 00:15:41,310 S14: the Western world or the democratic world loses its sense 259 00:15:41,310 --> 00:15:45,290 S14: of community and solidarity, it loses its ability to make 260 00:15:45,290 --> 00:15:46,640 S14: group decisions. 261 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,020 S4: All these parties, I mean, they are gaining seats. And 262 00:15:51,020 --> 00:15:54,140 S4: what we will see in the European Parliament is that 263 00:15:54,290 --> 00:15:59,330 S4: extreme right parties in almost all countries, almost all 27 countries, 264 00:15:59,330 --> 00:16:03,770 S4: will increase their their part of the votes and they 265 00:16:03,770 --> 00:16:08,120 S4: will come with many newly elected members to the European Parliament. 266 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,240 S4: And that is very, very scary in my view, because 267 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,960 S4: they're not only big admirers of Putin, they are also 268 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:19,340 S4: very anti-migration. As you said, they are anti-establishment and they 269 00:16:19,340 --> 00:16:25,040 S4: are now also joining forces with the agriculturists, the farmers, 270 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,860 S4: because many of them do not believe in climate change. 271 00:16:27,860 --> 00:16:29,930 S4: So they are, of course, lining up with the farmers 272 00:16:29,930 --> 00:16:32,740 S4: who say, and some of them claim rightly, that it's 273 00:16:32,740 --> 00:16:36,460 S4: I mean, the green transition will be complicated and bureaucratic 274 00:16:36,460 --> 00:16:39,100 S4: and costly for them as well. So they have just 275 00:16:39,100 --> 00:16:41,710 S4: been evidence showing up that this is nurtured by the 276 00:16:41,710 --> 00:16:44,290 S4: extreme right as well, who feed in false news and 277 00:16:44,290 --> 00:16:47,110 S4: false statistics and so on. So this is going to 278 00:16:47,110 --> 00:16:50,290 S4: have effects on on the future European Union. And this 279 00:16:50,290 --> 00:16:53,650 S4: is very scary. I think migration has part of it 280 00:16:53,650 --> 00:16:57,960 S4: that that we have seen very large waves of, of 281 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:02,460 S4: migration lately, and many countries have not really been able 282 00:17:02,460 --> 00:17:05,910 S4: to deal with the integration issues. But it's not only that. 283 00:17:05,910 --> 00:17:09,990 S4: It's a general feeling of anti-establishment, a feeling that I 284 00:17:09,990 --> 00:17:12,420 S4: think many people feel today that in in a world 285 00:17:12,420 --> 00:17:16,470 S4: that is globalizing so rapidly with the technical development and 286 00:17:16,470 --> 00:17:21,840 S4: with the new artificial intelligence, new ways of communicating and moving, 287 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,150 S4: many people feel a bit left out. I see that 288 00:17:24,150 --> 00:17:27,510 S4: this is going too quickly for me, and then the 289 00:17:27,510 --> 00:17:30,300 S4: right wing forces have been quick to sort of say, well, 290 00:17:30,300 --> 00:17:33,540 S4: you know, we are on your side. The establishment, those globalists, 291 00:17:33,540 --> 00:17:36,000 S4: they travel around and they are comfortable with these. But 292 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,389 S4: ordinary people, we feel that we have been left behind 293 00:17:39,390 --> 00:17:41,970 S4: and we stand on your side and they've been very 294 00:17:41,970 --> 00:17:45,590 S4: skilful in utilizing that feeling of unsecure ness that, that 295 00:17:45,590 --> 00:17:46,909 S4: lots of people feel today. 296 00:17:47,330 --> 00:17:51,320 S15: Last week, Chancellor Angela merkel announced that Germany would allow 297 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,740 S15: Syrian refugees to stay in the country regardless of where 298 00:17:54,740 --> 00:17:58,790 S15: they first entered the European Union. The move disregards an 299 00:17:58,790 --> 00:18:02,209 S15: existing rule that forces refugees to seek asylum in the 300 00:18:02,210 --> 00:18:03,770 S15: nation they first arrive. 301 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,010 S16: She's also making this humanitarian argument that Europe has an 302 00:18:07,030 --> 00:18:09,790 S16: obligation to refugees. When you look at the numbers, though, 303 00:18:09,790 --> 00:18:13,360 S16: they are staggering. This year, 2015, there's expected to be 304 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,169 S16: some 800,000 applicants here in Germany. 305 00:18:17,170 --> 00:18:20,830 S17: In July, the overall number crossing into the continent jumped 306 00:18:20,830 --> 00:18:24,340 S17: above 100,000 for the first time in a single month. 307 00:18:24,340 --> 00:18:28,090 S17: Budapest train station in Hungary has been packed with migrants 308 00:18:28,090 --> 00:18:32,280 S17: trying to get on trains north to Austria, Germany or Sweden. 309 00:18:32,310 --> 00:18:36,540 S15: Budapest railway station being cleared of refugees and migrants on 310 00:18:36,540 --> 00:18:41,310 S15: Tuesday morning. Outside the station, they could be heard chanting 311 00:18:41,310 --> 00:18:46,859 S15: for freedom. Many are trying to get to Austria and Germany. 312 00:18:47,850 --> 00:18:51,450 S15: On Saturday, hundreds of refugees who'd for days been camped 313 00:18:51,450 --> 00:18:55,109 S15: outside the station demanded to be let onto trains to Germany. 314 00:18:59,190 --> 00:19:03,090 S2: Do you think, with retrospect, Angela merkel made a mistake 315 00:19:03,090 --> 00:19:08,550 S2: allowing a million refugees to walk into Germany in 20 1516? 316 00:19:08,850 --> 00:19:12,629 S4: I think that that was at that time still was admirable. 317 00:19:12,630 --> 00:19:15,540 S4: I mean, we saw a huge crisis happening not far 318 00:19:15,540 --> 00:19:18,990 S4: away from us. People were being bombed and tortured and 319 00:19:18,990 --> 00:19:21,920 S4: driven from their home. And in the beginning we also 320 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,940 S4: saw a large wave of solidarity in Europe. Uh, in 321 00:19:25,940 --> 00:19:29,030 S4: many countries saying that, yes, these people are clearly refugees. 322 00:19:29,030 --> 00:19:32,030 S4: They're running away from a terrible war, a terrible regime, 323 00:19:32,030 --> 00:19:34,939 S4: and they should be given shelter. Then, of course, there 324 00:19:34,940 --> 00:19:38,480 S4: was so many people at the same time, and very 325 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,899 S4: few countries actually did receive them. Germany did a heroic 326 00:19:41,900 --> 00:19:44,410 S4: contribution to that, but also to my country. In Sweden 327 00:19:44,410 --> 00:19:47,890 S4: we got hundreds of thousands in a very, very short time. 328 00:19:47,890 --> 00:19:52,420 S4: And of course, without having the the tools on, you know, 329 00:19:52,420 --> 00:19:57,430 S4: integrating them and and giving them possibilities and chances in 330 00:19:57,460 --> 00:20:01,810 S4: their new countries, it became difficult. But then Europe has 331 00:20:01,810 --> 00:20:04,210 S4: a lot of solidarity. I mean, we have received almost 332 00:20:04,210 --> 00:20:08,080 S4: 5 million refugees from Ukraine with open arms as well. 333 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:12,790 S2: Although the refugees from Ukraine are people expect them to 334 00:20:12,790 --> 00:20:15,010 S2: go home to Ukraine when the war is over. 335 00:20:15,010 --> 00:20:18,669 S4: Yeah, that's an element, of course, and also because it 336 00:20:18,670 --> 00:20:22,570 S4: is so close to our borders. Yeah, I think people 337 00:20:22,570 --> 00:20:26,889 S4: most people believe that people who really run away from, from, 338 00:20:26,890 --> 00:20:30,760 S4: from torture and war and oppression should have the right 339 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,109 S4: to seek asylum. And all countries, I mean Australia and 340 00:20:34,109 --> 00:20:35,909 S4: all countries of the European Union have signed up to 341 00:20:35,940 --> 00:20:38,820 S4: to the Geneva Convention. So that is a fundamental right, 342 00:20:38,820 --> 00:20:42,480 S4: but also the feeling that that all people cannot come 343 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:46,290 S4: and we need to have a control mechanism to, to 344 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:48,480 S4: to see how those who are really in need of 345 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:53,160 S4: protection can be prioritized over those who maybe have miserable 346 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,330 S4: lives and want a second chance. And that that is understandable. 347 00:20:56,330 --> 00:20:59,840 S4: I mean, I come from a country. 100 years ago, 348 00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,410 S4: one fourth of Swedes went to the US because they 349 00:21:03,410 --> 00:21:06,919 S4: were basically too poor in Sweden. I mean, we can 350 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,920 S4: sympathize with that. But of course not everybody can come. 351 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,070 S4: So so the feeling of not having control and also 352 00:21:13,100 --> 00:21:15,320 S4: the feeling that that once you come here, you must 353 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,140 S4: be given a chance, but also some demands that you 354 00:21:18,140 --> 00:21:21,980 S4: are expected to integrate and be given the tools to, 355 00:21:22,010 --> 00:21:24,740 S4: to be part of, of the new society. And if 356 00:21:24,740 --> 00:21:28,490 S4: people feel, rightly or not, that their governments are not 357 00:21:28,490 --> 00:21:32,990 S4: controlling the borders, this will fuel into the right wing debate, 358 00:21:32,990 --> 00:21:36,500 S4: but also raise a lot of concerns among ordinary citizens. 359 00:21:36,500 --> 00:21:39,170 S4: And we have not done well enough there. 360 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:39,560 S2: Well, I. 361 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:39,920 S18: Think that's. 362 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,990 S2: Right. It's it's in a sense you it's your good, 363 00:21:43,990 --> 00:21:49,960 S2: generous liberal intentions can actually end up advantaging the, the 364 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,740 S2: right wing, often the extreme right wing of politics. Yes. 365 00:21:53,740 --> 00:21:57,490 S4: And when people were not given, we have in several 366 00:21:57,490 --> 00:21:59,320 S4: countries in Europe right now in Sweden, but we see 367 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:00,820 S4: it in Belgium and others. We have a lot of 368 00:22:00,820 --> 00:22:06,670 S4: gang violence, which is really, you know, creating death and 369 00:22:06,670 --> 00:22:08,939 S4: shootings and a very young people who are involved. 370 00:22:08,940 --> 00:22:11,970 S2: And this is in communities that are basically immigrant communities. 371 00:22:11,970 --> 00:22:12,449 S2: You're saying. 372 00:22:12,450 --> 00:22:15,359 S4: Yes, they are, but those are not those who came 373 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,129 S4: a couple of years ago. These are those who have 374 00:22:17,130 --> 00:22:18,810 S4: been here for a longer time. Some are second and 375 00:22:18,810 --> 00:22:22,710 S4: even third generation. So we failed, you know, to to 376 00:22:22,710 --> 00:22:26,160 S4: address these problems decades ago. And now, of course, we 377 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,169 S4: are faced with this problem. We see the same phenomena 378 00:22:28,170 --> 00:22:30,450 S4: in in Belgium right now a lot of gangs are 379 00:22:30,450 --> 00:22:35,640 S4: shootings and unrest, which is making causing a lot of 380 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,719 S4: of not only death and anger in the in the societies, 381 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,750 S4: in the communities, but also, you know, ordinary people sometimes 382 00:22:42,750 --> 00:22:45,600 S4: get shot by mistake. And this is, of course, also 383 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,510 S4: fueling the debate. And it's terrible. It's absolutely no defense 384 00:22:48,810 --> 00:22:54,000 S4: for this. And Europol, which is the police corporation in Europe, 385 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,980 S4: have mapped to say that all around almost 1000 gangs, 386 00:22:57,980 --> 00:23:01,760 S4: ethnic gangs, most of them around Europe, and and they 387 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,490 S4: have a lot of weapons and they are involved in 388 00:23:04,490 --> 00:23:08,000 S4: a lot of drug. They control drug in certain areas. 389 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,489 S4: And then of course, there's turf war and so on. 390 00:23:10,490 --> 00:23:15,350 S4: And this is something that ordinary citizens and everybody feels 391 00:23:15,350 --> 00:23:16,310 S4: totally appalled. 392 00:23:16,310 --> 00:23:19,550 S2: Let me ask you a question about this, about identity. 393 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:27,940 S2: You're Swedish. If I was a third generation person living 394 00:23:27,940 --> 00:23:34,869 S2: in Sweden of Syrian descent, for example, speaking Swedish and 395 00:23:34,869 --> 00:23:38,770 S2: so forth sounding Swedish, would I be regarded by most 396 00:23:38,770 --> 00:23:39,580 S2: Swedes as. 397 00:23:39,580 --> 00:23:40,270 S19: Swedish. 398 00:23:40,270 --> 00:23:42,730 S2: Or would I still be regarded as an immigrant? 399 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:43,690 S20: Well, you. 400 00:23:43,690 --> 00:23:48,820 S4: Probably be regarded as a Swede with migrant roots, so 401 00:23:48,820 --> 00:23:50,710 S4: to say. I mean, we have people of, of, of 402 00:23:50,710 --> 00:23:54,970 S4: foreign origin in our governments and in leading positions, you know, 403 00:23:54,970 --> 00:24:00,070 S4: in top deans of universities and business society. Then, on 404 00:24:00,070 --> 00:24:03,280 S4: the other hand, we have this issue of demography. Uh, 405 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,670 S4: because I haven't seen the last figures from from Australia. 406 00:24:06,670 --> 00:24:09,030 S4: But in Europe, people are having fewer and fewer babies. 407 00:24:09,030 --> 00:24:12,119 S4: People are getting living longer, which is good, but it 408 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,600 S4: is also creating challenges to to demography. And so we 409 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,290 S4: need labour migration as well. And there have just been 410 00:24:19,290 --> 00:24:23,220 S4: recent studies in the US showing how important, despite, you know, 411 00:24:23,220 --> 00:24:27,209 S4: having having difficulties controlling the border, how important these people 412 00:24:27,210 --> 00:24:30,540 S4: are for the economy and how much in Europe, we 413 00:24:30,540 --> 00:24:34,190 S4: would also need more labour migration in order to really 414 00:24:34,190 --> 00:24:36,530 S4: kick off our growth as well. So it's such a 415 00:24:36,530 --> 00:24:39,740 S4: complex problem and for for many people, you know, trying 416 00:24:39,740 --> 00:24:43,340 S4: to explain all these factors at the same time, it's difficult. 417 00:24:43,340 --> 00:24:45,679 S2: I think also, this gets back to the point you 418 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:51,290 S2: were making about competition with the US, the United States. 419 00:24:51,590 --> 00:24:53,570 S2: You know, and I think to some extent Australia is 420 00:24:53,570 --> 00:24:55,790 S2: a bit like this, but not at the same level. 421 00:24:55,790 --> 00:24:58,970 S2: The United States, for all of its social problems and 422 00:24:58,970 --> 00:25:02,420 S2: craziness and guns and all of this stuff, it is 423 00:25:02,420 --> 00:25:06,290 S2: still seen as a magnet for talent. And so much 424 00:25:06,290 --> 00:25:10,220 S2: of their economy is driven by really smart people who 425 00:25:10,220 --> 00:25:12,770 S2: have come from other parts of the world. You know, 426 00:25:12,770 --> 00:25:15,409 S2: whether it's the founders of Google or whether it's Elon 427 00:25:15,410 --> 00:25:21,280 S2: Musk or, you know, long list of people who are 428 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:25,210 S2: coming to the US and bringing their talent. And in 429 00:25:25,210 --> 00:25:28,240 S2: a world where innovation is such a critical driver of 430 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:34,330 S2: economic growth, human capital is actually much more important and 431 00:25:34,330 --> 00:25:37,480 S2: much harder to access than financial capital. As you know, 432 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:41,080 S2: financial capital can whizz around the world in a second, 433 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,170 S2: but human capital, you've got to have an environment that 434 00:25:44,190 --> 00:25:48,240 S2: people want to go to and can feel comfortable in. 435 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:53,400 S2: And that's obviously one of the advantages of countries that 436 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,609 S2: are seen to be open, that argues for the sort 437 00:25:56,609 --> 00:26:02,040 S2: of multiculturalism and openness to migration that we're talking about earlier. 438 00:26:07,410 --> 00:26:10,760 S2: Just finally Cecilia we talked about Trump. And of course 439 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,580 S2: he may not win the election. But you've said that 440 00:26:13,580 --> 00:26:16,939 S2: Biden hasn't been that great on trade or tariffs either. 441 00:26:16,940 --> 00:26:21,950 S2: I mean, protectionism is the zeitgeist in Washington. 442 00:26:21,950 --> 00:26:25,940 S21: President Biden today is announcing new tariffs on $18 billion 443 00:26:25,940 --> 00:26:30,109 S21: worth of Chinese made products like electrical vehicles, semiconductors, batteries, 444 00:26:30,109 --> 00:26:34,280 S21: steel and aluminum. It's a major reversal for President Biden, 445 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,640 S21: who four years ago strongly criticized tariffs that then-President Donald 446 00:26:37,670 --> 00:26:40,160 S21: Trump had imposed on China. But then he left them 447 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,230 S21: in place, and now he's only expanding them. 448 00:26:42,230 --> 00:26:44,990 S22: I'm determined that the future of electric vehicles will be 449 00:26:44,990 --> 00:26:48,379 S22: made in America by union workers, period. 450 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:53,149 S23: Biden nodding to workers in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls 451 00:26:53,150 --> 00:26:56,510 S23: show the race is tight, and Michigan a crucial battleground 452 00:26:56,530 --> 00:27:00,189 S23: where recent polling has Donald Trump up by seven points. 453 00:27:01,630 --> 00:27:04,450 S2: How do you think we get back to a more 454 00:27:04,450 --> 00:27:08,350 S2: open approach to trade, or is now are we stuck 455 00:27:08,350 --> 00:27:13,540 S2: with protectionism and industry policy and for the next, uh, 456 00:27:13,690 --> 00:27:17,410 S2: years ahead of us? The days of free trade and 457 00:27:17,410 --> 00:27:20,290 S2: open markets coming to an end? 458 00:27:20,290 --> 00:27:23,280 S4: I don't think it's going to change very quickly. Eventually 459 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,800 S4: it will, but right now there's a lot of protectionism. 460 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,980 S4: There's a lot of focus on on subsidies and industrial 461 00:27:28,980 --> 00:27:33,330 S4: policies and inward looking. And this is is risks getting 462 00:27:33,330 --> 00:27:35,909 S4: out of control. Because obviously there are things that the 463 00:27:35,910 --> 00:27:38,970 S4: markets can't, can't solve. So so I'm not saying that 464 00:27:38,970 --> 00:27:42,570 S4: all subsidies especially for the green transitions are wrong, but 465 00:27:42,570 --> 00:27:45,720 S4: with the escalation that rich countries do right now and 466 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,119 S4: you know, Europe is following through and all the countries 467 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:52,710 S4: of the world, this is not going to end well because, um, 468 00:27:53,310 --> 00:27:57,869 S4: we are alienated the the developing world because they cannot 469 00:27:57,869 --> 00:28:02,100 S4: compete on all this. And focusing on the states, deciding 470 00:28:02,100 --> 00:28:06,899 S4: exactly what countries and companies should do. Historically, it hasn't 471 00:28:06,900 --> 00:28:08,520 S4: been a very good thing. So I'm a little bit 472 00:28:08,540 --> 00:28:11,899 S4: concerned right now of the new wave of industrial policies 473 00:28:11,900 --> 00:28:17,210 S4: and subsidies, and especially as multilateral organizations such as WTO 474 00:28:17,210 --> 00:28:19,730 S4: are very weak at the moment. And there I don't 475 00:28:19,730 --> 00:28:24,830 S4: really see the US engaging in strengthening the WTO independently, 476 00:28:24,830 --> 00:28:27,110 S4: who sits in the white House. And I hope this 477 00:28:27,109 --> 00:28:30,859 S4: will change because we we are in bigger need than ever, 478 00:28:30,859 --> 00:28:34,810 S4: or at least in many, many decades of multilateral rules 479 00:28:34,810 --> 00:28:39,310 S4: and predictable international systems where where we know what what's 480 00:28:39,310 --> 00:28:42,850 S4: going to happen. And with the climate crisis and with 481 00:28:42,850 --> 00:28:47,170 S4: the increasing cleavages between the South and the North, if 482 00:28:47,170 --> 00:28:49,360 S4: I can put it like this, it's a bit simplifying 483 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,120 S4: and wars and so on all over the world. We 484 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:56,020 S4: really need to address these issues jointly. So that concerns me. 485 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,290 S2: No, I agree, it's been wonderful to talk about these 486 00:28:59,290 --> 00:29:02,170 S2: issues and wonderful to see you again. So thank you. Well, thank. 487 00:29:02,170 --> 00:29:04,570 S4: You for inviting me. It's been great seeing you again. 488 00:29:08,350 --> 00:29:13,390 S2: This podcast is produced by me, Malcolm Turnbull and Kerry Pinkstone. 489 00:29:13,420 --> 00:29:15,460 S2: Music by Helena Czajka.