WEBVTT - Tony Katz & Steve Yates on How Trump Administration is Handling Iran War

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<v Speaker 1>Why from the Heart Blind and the Crossroads of America.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Tony Katz today. So the only question is who

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<v Speaker 1>controls the strait? Well, I guess maybe the only question

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<v Speaker 1>is are we actually still at war with Iran?

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<v Speaker 2>If nothing is happening?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, maybe the only question is what is actually happening

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<v Speaker 1>to begin with?

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<v Speaker 2>Who's doing what? When we're why?

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<v Speaker 1>And how can we get at least a straight and

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<v Speaker 1>honest answer. Not what I want, not maybe what you want,

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<v Speaker 1>and we could possibly be in conflicts. I love you

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<v Speaker 1>either way, But what is actually happening? What is the goal?

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<v Speaker 1>What is the objective of the United States, of the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranians of the Middle East? And how do we get

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<v Speaker 1>what we want? And does that mean somebody else has

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<v Speaker 1>to get what they want? Tony Katz, Tony Katz today,

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<v Speaker 1>Good to be with you. Stephen Yates joins us right now.

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<v Speaker 1>You know his work over there at the Heritage Foundation.

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<v Speaker 1>Now his focus is China and China policy and China relations.

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<v Speaker 2>But because of.

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<v Speaker 1>That he has had a lifetime of understanding world relationships

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<v Speaker 1>and how this geopolitics works, including from his time in

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<v Speaker 1>the George Bush White House with Vice President Cheney. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>break it down a little bit, Sir. I hear from

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump that we control the Strait of our MOUs

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred percent.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no question about it. I hear from the Iranians.

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<v Speaker 1>Or whomever it is speaking for the Iranians that they

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<v Speaker 1>control the strait one hundred percent. I have got very

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<v Speaker 1>little in terms of tankers going through the strait, and

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<v Speaker 1>I have got oil that has been back above eighty

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<v Speaker 1>dollars in some places eighty five dollars a barrel.

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<v Speaker 2>Stephen Yates, who controls what well Tony?

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<v Speaker 3>I think we've got a sort of perfect muddle to

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<v Speaker 3>a degree, both sides telling the truth, especially from their

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<v Speaker 3>point of view. And so the imperfect picture that we

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<v Speaker 3>can put together is that there's more shipping traffic transiting

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<v Speaker 3>the Strait of Hormus and oil and natural gas coming

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<v Speaker 3>and going from the non Iran destinations than is being

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<v Speaker 3>accounted for by private trackers. And that's partly due to

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<v Speaker 3>signals being turned off on those vessels for security purposes

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<v Speaker 3>and being escorted by the US military, And so the

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<v Speaker 3>US government sources have higher numbers of the ships coming

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<v Speaker 3>and going. In fact, over the last weekend, talking about

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<v Speaker 3>at numbers that pre date the war and those the

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<v Speaker 3>drop off that has held for several several months. So

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<v Speaker 3>on the one hand, that's true. Militarily, we definitely have

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<v Speaker 3>control of the Strait and we definitely have Iran pinned in.

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<v Speaker 3>On the other hand, they are still completely capable of

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<v Speaker 3>engaging in economic terrorism. And what I mean by that

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<v Speaker 3>is all it takes is one off threats here or there,

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<v Speaker 3>occasional attacks here or there, and it completely shapes the

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<v Speaker 3>behavior of your adversary. Those adversary could be the insurance

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<v Speaker 3>companies that jack rates so that ships don't want to move.

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<v Speaker 3>That adversary could be regional actors that recoil and try

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<v Speaker 3>to pressure the administration to engage in concessions and endless

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<v Speaker 3>negotiations that by time for recovery. But this is the

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<v Speaker 3>textbook definition of terrorism. You use the threat and reality

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<v Speaker 3>of occasional force in order to get an outsized political, economic,

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<v Speaker 3>or other strategic reaction out of your targets. And that's

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<v Speaker 3>what leads to this stalemate.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's take a step back in something you said, because

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think people understand and I don't claim this

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<v Speaker 1>is my area of expertise. We have more tankers that

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<v Speaker 1>are going through because they're turning off the trackers.

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<v Speaker 2>Walk me through how that works well.

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<v Speaker 3>For though, there are apps you can go to on

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<v Speaker 3>the internet, and they're certainly high priced commercial services that

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<v Speaker 3>will give you very very clear data. And that's when

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<v Speaker 3>everyone's sort of GPS signal is on and they can

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<v Speaker 3>sort of like air traffic control, can see where every

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<v Speaker 3>flying object is or seafaring object is. In this case,

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<v Speaker 3>we're looking at the seafaring objects, and for both safety

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<v Speaker 3>and the economics of scale of tracking things, they will

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<v Speaker 3>have signals that you can be able to detect where

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<v Speaker 3>these lumbering objects are that go on the sea. They're

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<v Speaker 3>weighed down so heavily. I don't even understand the physics

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<v Speaker 3>of how they float, much less move, but as they

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<v Speaker 3>go they have signals on. So for security purposes sort

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<v Speaker 3>of like going stealth, if you're in the air, you

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<v Speaker 3>have all things turned off, and that's dangerous if you

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<v Speaker 3>are at risk of bumping into things. But if you're

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<v Speaker 3>being escorted by a military force, then you have less

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<v Speaker 3>of that safety concern. So those international services are not

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<v Speaker 3>in fact able to track where all of these vessels

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<v Speaker 3>are when they are cloaked, or to have their signals

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<v Speaker 3>turned off, and so some things are moving. Do I

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<v Speaker 3>believe that they are moving at pre war levels? That's

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<v Speaker 3>hard to fathom. You think that more of that would

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<v Speaker 3>be seen and you would see more of that reflected

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<v Speaker 3>in the markets. At the same time, as you noted

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<v Speaker 3>the price of oil being in the eighties, that's way

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<v Speaker 3>down from the one hundred plus of the panic rates.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not down to sort of the fifty to seventy

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<v Speaker 3>range that was sort of pre war, but it's ticklishly

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<v Speaker 3>close to that, which tells me some things are moving.

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<v Speaker 3>Whether it's the diverted fuels or whether it's the escorted ships.

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<v Speaker 3>Some things are moving. So we're not seeing the picture,

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<v Speaker 3>which fails the first rule of politics in my book,

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<v Speaker 3>which I learned from TV. So it has to be true.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not enough to do good. You have to be

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<v Speaker 3>seen doing good. And it's hard for the war everyday

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<v Speaker 3>Americans and even market analysts to see the good that's happening.

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<v Speaker 1>You know how heavy that statement is, right, because you're

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<v Speaker 1>talking perception versus reality. And this is where people who

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<v Speaker 1>want to be all Trump all the time and people

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<v Speaker 1>who want to be all against Trump all the time

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<v Speaker 1>fail in the conversation talking to Stephen Yates to the

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<v Speaker 1>Heritage Foundation. Because perception is reality. You're not wrong when

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<v Speaker 1>you discuss where the oil prices are. We're not at

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and ten dollars a barrel, but when you

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<v Speaker 1>tell me oil's got to be at seventy five dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a barrel in order to be like, hey, look how oil.

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<v Speaker 2>Prices are down. Gas prices are down. Everything's good, and

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<v Speaker 2>we're at eighty five dollars a barrel.

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<v Speaker 1>And we saw it go up because Iran is saying

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<v Speaker 1>to the United States, forget you, We're going to do

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<v Speaker 1>whatever we want.

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<v Speaker 2>That is seen.

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<v Speaker 1>That puts the president in a position I view of weakness,

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<v Speaker 1>of perceived weakness. Never mind the idea of this back

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<v Speaker 1>and forth. We control the straight, No, we control the straight.

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<v Speaker 1>But go back again for a moment. You talk about

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<v Speaker 1>it in insurance rates, and you talk about escorts. On the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of escorts. This is I think where a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people have been. How is it possible that we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have a series of destroyers just lined up on

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<v Speaker 1>both sides of the strait. How have we not gotten

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<v Speaker 1>the Saudis and others to line up some forces on

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<v Speaker 1>both sides of the strait, and we just make sure

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<v Speaker 1>that nothing gets through.

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<v Speaker 2>We make sure.

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<v Speaker 1>That the tankers get through, that the Iranians can't do nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>They're finished, they're complete. We do it by force. So

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<v Speaker 1>when you talk about escort, this is what people are asking,

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<v Speaker 1>how is this not happening already?

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<v Speaker 3>And mass It's a painfully clear and appropriate question for

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<v Speaker 3>which I don't have a good answer, because it's exactly

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<v Speaker 3>what I would have done months ago, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>we have the capability to do so. I think we

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<v Speaker 3>have been clear that our governing ethos is to press

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<v Speaker 3>the free riders of the world that you are going

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<v Speaker 3>to have skin in the game. You are going to

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<v Speaker 3>put fuel in the tank. You are going to fight this.

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<v Speaker 3>We are helping you, and you're going to pay for

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<v Speaker 3>us helping you. And part of that is you're going

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<v Speaker 3>to share some of the risk. We're not going to

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<v Speaker 3>stand out here as the only targets. You're going to

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<v Speaker 3>stand shoulder to shoulder in doing something that ensures freedom

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<v Speaker 3>of navigation for you to thrive and your people to

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<v Speaker 3>be safe. That is the way I understood that Trump

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<v Speaker 3>Great Realignment was meant to be. It's something I am

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<v Speaker 3>million percent agree with and strongly support. I think we

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<v Speaker 3>have done some of those things, but we aren't doing

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<v Speaker 3>enough of those things, and we aren't being seen doing

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<v Speaker 3>enough of those things, and that, I think is the challenge.

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<v Speaker 3>We have to move in that direction for this to

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<v Speaker 3>be sustained. And I think that there is a way

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<v Speaker 3>to not just spin a win, but for there to

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<v Speaker 3>be a real transformation that people can be proud of

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<v Speaker 3>and can hold and is worth it. But we aren't

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<v Speaker 3>doing enough of what you just said that I completely

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<v Speaker 3>agree with. Things should have been done long ago.

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<v Speaker 1>Talking to Stephen Yates the Heritage Foundation Heritage dot org.

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<v Speaker 1>His focus is China policy, but his history is that

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<v Speaker 1>of full geopolitics in the region, whether it be the

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<v Speaker 1>Far East or the Middle East. I am somebody who

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<v Speaker 1>believes that we should have taken out the regime.

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<v Speaker 2>And when this.

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<v Speaker 1>First took place back in February, you were the first

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<v Speaker 1>person I was texting with. You were the person I

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<v Speaker 1>was reaching out to. I was preparing for a live event,

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<v Speaker 1>and I was trying to get data from you to

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<v Speaker 1>understand exactly what it was that I was seeing here.

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<v Speaker 1>And I certainly believe then that taking out the regime

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<v Speaker 1>is I think job number one. And when I talk

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<v Speaker 1>about how the president is viewed here, and I know

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<v Speaker 1>that the president does not like to be viewed as

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<v Speaker 1>weak at any level in any place, there is a

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<v Speaker 1>view here that he is. Because you can only talk

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<v Speaker 1>about Iran can't get a nuclear weapons so much. In

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<v Speaker 1>the end you have to end the regime that is

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<v Speaker 1>trying to achieve this goal, and they may still be

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<v Speaker 1>working at it if everything's possible. You know, right now,

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<v Speaker 1>you can't say they can't have a nuclear weapon then

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<v Speaker 1>leave and all of a sudden a centrifuge starts spinning up.

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<v Speaker 1>Legacy is shattered. And this brought up a conversation that

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<v Speaker 1>I had with Leland Vidder of News Nation. But the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of will the IRGC the Iranians have the will

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<v Speaker 1>to hold out and the United States doesn't have the will.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't believe that in Toto because I haven't seen

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not the president will or won'tes.

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<v Speaker 2>All I know is he's not doing the bombings, but.

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<v Speaker 1>He's still around, and he's still there, keeping to an

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<v Speaker 1>extent his powder dry and waiting to see what happens.

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<v Speaker 2>Is this a willpower fight? Is this about political wills.

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<v Speaker 1>Is this about whether or not the president has the

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<v Speaker 1>stomach for this, whether this is really in his desire

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<v Speaker 1>in his wheelhouse? Where do you think the real battle

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<v Speaker 1>is in terms of ideology between the GC and where

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump is well.

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<v Speaker 3>I think first there's a caveat for how to even

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<v Speaker 3>talk about this. I think we have to be careful

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<v Speaker 3>to fall into the traps of all or nothing kinds

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<v Speaker 3>of lenses, because it's just not the way the world is.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not the way warfare is, and it's not the

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<v Speaker 3>way this mix of forces and pressures and other kinds

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<v Speaker 3>of activities is going to play out. The war is

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<v Speaker 3>always a bit about will and capability, and sometimes patients

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<v Speaker 3>and patients can often be mistaken for weakness. It can

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<v Speaker 3>be weakness, it can be appeasement. But it depends on

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<v Speaker 3>what the ultimate aim is and are there measurable results

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<v Speaker 3>in a reasonable period of time, And what is reasonable

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<v Speaker 3>is subjective. That comes down to politics, domestic and international.

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<v Speaker 3>So what I mean by all this gobbledegook I just

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<v Speaker 3>sort of spewed out here is that the president has

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<v Speaker 3>some very powerful things in place that we're not in

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<v Speaker 3>place for the decade plus from the bogus Iran Deal

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<v Speaker 3>to the present, we have maximum financial pressure in place.

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<v Speaker 3>We've gone after bank accounts that matter in very serious,

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<v Speaker 3>real and impactful ways. We have a blockade in place

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<v Speaker 3>that has having a real and meaningful impact on the

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<v Speaker 3>coffers of the theocratic regime in Tehran, and there is

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<v Speaker 3>no indication any of that is coming off any time soon.

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<v Speaker 3>And so that form of maximum pressure is greater than

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<v Speaker 3>has ever been applied to this regime in the near

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<v Speaker 3>half century of its existence. And is there a resolve

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<v Speaker 3>to keep it in place indefinitely if necessary, to starve

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<v Speaker 3>the regime of the resources and wait for them to

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<v Speaker 3>be cannibalized by their people or among the power centers

0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.559
<v Speaker 3>of themselves. That is not the timeline that we were

0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:51.200
<v Speaker 3>led to believe at the beginning of this operation. But

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 3>it is not appeasement, it is not weakness, it is

0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:59.400
<v Speaker 3>not failure. It's just different and longer, and ultimately it

0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:03.160
<v Speaker 3>might be what works. It isn't what I would have

0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 3>chosen in terms of the option set going forward. But

0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:11.880
<v Speaker 3>it is not the sort of all or nothing kind

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 3>of fork in the road that we instinctively go to

0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:17.559
<v Speaker 3>when thinking about these things. There is more than one

0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:20.640
<v Speaker 3>way to change this regime. There's more than one timeline

0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:22.959
<v Speaker 3>on which to change this regime. The question is, can

0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 3>we hold allies, can we hold markets, can we hold

0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:29.840
<v Speaker 3>our domestic politics? Do we have the resolve and the

0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.880
<v Speaker 3>strategy to do those things to allow this longer, more

0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:34.160
<v Speaker 3>patient path to work.

0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:36.200
<v Speaker 1>And I would only argue that one of the things

0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:39.280
<v Speaker 1>that the administration didn't do and should have done was

0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:42.800
<v Speaker 1>explained why in much greater detail, made the full on

0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 1>appeal to America and said let's be in this together.

0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 1>But that is a political consideration I agree with, and

0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:52.520
<v Speaker 1>I just they didn't do this because the president believes

0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm doing this and everyone's gonna go with me and

0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.760
<v Speaker 1>it'll get explained as we go. And that's just not

0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:59.760
<v Speaker 1>how this works. But to the idea of the political

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:02.439
<v Speaker 1>concer iterations. Talking to Stephen Yates to the Heritage Foundation

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:06.839
<v Speaker 1>this story over at Fox News that you have Pakistan,

0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:12.040
<v Speaker 1>Saudi Arabia, and Turkey considering a pact to work together. Now,

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.440
<v Speaker 1>I have argued that the one thing that the president

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:18.200
<v Speaker 1>has done is he's rethought Middle East policy. He has

0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:21.560
<v Speaker 1>forced the Middle East to rethink Middle East policy. Everything

0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 1>is now different. The Abraham Accords a huge part of

0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:26.480
<v Speaker 1>this and getting rid of this regime, getting rid of

0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.560
<v Speaker 1>this Iranian threat allows the Middle East to have a

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:33.760
<v Speaker 1>much more stable future. But if Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi

0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 1>Arabia are getting together, you could argue this is about

0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:40.600
<v Speaker 1>trade and creating a world without an Iranian regime, or

0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 1>this is about creating a new power base to be

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:45.800
<v Speaker 1>able to deal with the fact that the United States

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>might be the hegemonic power now in the Middle East

0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.320
<v Speaker 1>once the Iranian regime is gone.

0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.480
<v Speaker 2>What is your take on this alleged relationship.

0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 3>Well, Tony, if you'll allow a shameless plug and encourage

0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.560
<v Speaker 3>people to listen to the latest Nation States with Yates

0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:01.920
<v Speaker 3>and talks of about how the map of the Middle

0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.400
<v Speaker 3>East was rewritten, we go into some of the deeper

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.760
<v Speaker 3>things that are behind the question. I think it's an

0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 3>important question you get at this, specifically this coalition Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan.

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 3>Part of this is the peril of when you empower

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:20.280
<v Speaker 3>intermediaries to operate on your behalf, to try to come

0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:24.840
<v Speaker 3>to what might be priest terms, whatever the status quo

0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 3>after major military operations are over, and we always have

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:30.880
<v Speaker 3>to be careful It's one thing to allow the good

0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 3>offices to convene conversations that otherwise wouldn't happen. But when

0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:39.120
<v Speaker 3>you allow the intermediaries to drag your strategy, then I

0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.560
<v Speaker 3>think you're putting a little bit of American strategy and

0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 3>interests at risk. And I think the administration is pulled

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 3>back some from whether it was Oman, Pakistan or others.

0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 3>But they've been empowered and emboldened in some ways in

0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 3>recent months in ways they haven't for a long time.

0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:57.800
<v Speaker 3>And of course American interests aren't going to be the

0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:00.800
<v Speaker 3>same as Saudi Arabian interests, but Saudi has a big

0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:04.440
<v Speaker 3>footprint in the Middle East, and we have to continue

0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:07.560
<v Speaker 3>to kind of mind that garden, I think a longer

0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:11.080
<v Speaker 3>term and it's better than putting our bets on the

0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.200
<v Speaker 3>theocratic empire coming out of Tehran if that isn't stopped

0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:17.000
<v Speaker 3>in the near future. So there is this mix. I

0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:21.120
<v Speaker 3>don't like this alternative out there that they're floating. I

0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:25.880
<v Speaker 3>think it is not a happy or friendly signal to Washington,

0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 3>which has reached out in good faith with all three

0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 3>of these governments, yes in the not too distant past,

0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:35.560
<v Speaker 3>and has done some strategic things that very much benefit

0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:39.360
<v Speaker 3>each of them and sort of float this idea that

0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.120
<v Speaker 3>they are somehow the condominium that's going to shape the

0:16:42.160 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 3>future of the Middle East that gets away from the

0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:49.240
<v Speaker 3>Abraham Accords architecture and reason for being. And so I

0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:51.960
<v Speaker 3>think some work needs to be, you know, to encourage

0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:54.120
<v Speaker 3>some of these to put their horses back in the

0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.640
<v Speaker 3>stable a little bit and let's finish what's right in

0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:59.960
<v Speaker 3>front of us. And until that is resolved, then there's

0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:02.440
<v Speaker 3>there's no point in you talking about these things. And

0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:04.879
<v Speaker 3>we'd have to pull back on some of the friendly

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.480
<v Speaker 3>things we've offered to you if you're proving not to

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.199
<v Speaker 3>be helpful into doing something that matters to the United States.

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:14.160
<v Speaker 1>And I do absolutely believe that when we talk about

0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:15.600
<v Speaker 1>a deal that has to be made, the deal that

0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:17.080
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have to be made with a RAN, it has

0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:19.919
<v Speaker 1>to be made with Saudi Arabia, Bakrain and the UAE,

0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.000
<v Speaker 1>that they are going to be active participants in bringing

0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 1>an end to this regime and remembering who their friends are,

0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.159
<v Speaker 1>they got to get some skin in the game. This

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:32.439
<v Speaker 1>is like the United States discussing how NATO nations have

0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:35.240
<v Speaker 1>to pay for their own security against the Russians.

0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:36.160
<v Speaker 2>Stephen Yates.

0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:39.800
<v Speaker 1>Find them at Heritage dot Oregon. Of course, Nation States

0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:44.320
<v Speaker 1>with the Yates. The podcast available on your favorite podcast platform.

0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:46.840
<v Speaker 2>Good to see us, sir, we'll talk soon. Keep it here.

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:48.840
<v Speaker 2>This is Tony Katz today