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Speaker 1: Live from vall Hartbland and the Crossroads of America. It's

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz today.

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Speaker 2: To watch the wife of Robert F.

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Speaker 3: Kennedy Junior, Cheryl Hines, take on the ladies of the

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Speaker 3: view who are not what we call I believe in.

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Speaker 2: The Latin we would say, oh, what is the translation? Smart?

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Speaker 2: Not smart?

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Speaker 3: It's really good. She handled herself. And for the record,

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Speaker 3: Cheryl Hines is a progressive. I disagree with her on

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Speaker 3: about nineteen million things. But Sonny hosted and Whitopy Goldberg

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Speaker 3: actually think they're bringing an intellectual heft to the show.

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Speaker 2: It's adorable, Tony, Tony Katz Today.

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Speaker 3: Good to be with You find everything at Tony Katz

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Speaker 3: dot com. This However, before we get there is Harry

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Speaker 3: Enton over at CNN and he's got numbers, and the

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Speaker 3: numbers are well, yeah, exactly what democrats.

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Speaker 4: Thought seventeen twenty eighteen, right, because that's sort of the baseline.

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Speaker 4: That was, of course, the first Trump term. That was

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Speaker 4: where Democrats were sort of keeping pace. You go back

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Speaker 4: to April, look at the generic congressional ballot. What you

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Speaker 4: see You see plus three Democrats in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 5: In April, you see plus three.

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Speaker 4: Democrats back in April of twenty seventeen. Now jump over

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Speaker 4: to this side of the screen. What happens, Well, the

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Speaker 4: Democrats are no longer keeping pace with the pace that

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Speaker 4: they were setting back in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen. You

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Speaker 4: look back in twenty seventeen, you saw that the Democrats

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Speaker 4: had leaped up to an eight point advantage. I remember

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Speaker 4: covering this. I remember a lot of folks, including myself, saying,

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Speaker 4: you know what, Republicans look pretty decent right now in

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Speaker 4: terms of the fact that they had the House, they

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Speaker 4: had this under they had the presidency, but things were

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Speaker 4: likely going flip, and I was looking for the same

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Speaker 4: science this year. The bottom line is, it hasn't happened, Capeball.

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Speaker 4: When it hasn't happened, Democrats have stayed, basically studied, they

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Speaker 4: have fallen off the pace.

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Speaker 5: Democrats are way out ahead.

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Speaker 4: Back in twenty seventeen on the generic congressional ballot, and

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Speaker 4: now we're basically looking at Democrats ahead. But again they

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Speaker 4: are so far in back of the pace that they

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Speaker 4: set back there. And so I think what a lot

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Speaker 4: of folks are seeing. Folks like myself are saying, wait

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Speaker 4: a minute, given what we might be seeing and redistricting.

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Speaker 5: Is this plus three going to be enough? Cape Ball?

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Speaker 2: That's now.

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Speaker 3: As I've said before, I favor redistricting. I think redistricting

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Speaker 3: is the right move. I didn't say it wasn't ugly.

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Speaker 3: I am discussing this solely on the politics of it,

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Speaker 3: because I, like you, am a grownup and I understand

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Speaker 3: that what we're dealing with here is the grown up world.

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Speaker 3: To understand the redistricting a little bit better, allow me

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Speaker 3: to introduce you to someone buy the name of Nancy Pelosi.

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Speaker 3: Trust me on this one. Trust me on this one.

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Speaker 3: Nancy Pelosi is going to explain to you, as she

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Speaker 3: did to Jensaki just yesterday, why redistricting matters so very very.

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Speaker 2: Much mid ten year plan here. But you also don't

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Speaker 2: like to fight.

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Speaker 3: With one arm behind your back.

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Speaker 2: You wouldn't have won so many times. Do you wish

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Speaker 2: other states?

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Speaker 1: Do you want other blue states to really think about.

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Speaker 6: This at this point or think about a path forward,

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Speaker 6: even if it's following the same model as California with

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Speaker 6: letting people vote to do it. People have to do

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Speaker 6: what their path is. It's really important to note I

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Speaker 6: thank you for your acknowledging what I have done. But

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Speaker 6: this was a big plan, that is to say, in

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Speaker 6: order for us to move forward, the California Democrats had

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Speaker 6: to less a plan that added five seats, which meant

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Speaker 6: members had to give up some of their Democrats to

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Speaker 6: do that. Zoe Lafgan our share of our caucus and

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Speaker 6: PD Aguilar is the share.

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Speaker 2: Of the bigger caucus.

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Speaker 6: They they led the way on this though has just

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Speaker 6: been remarkable. So our delegation had to vote for this.

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Speaker 6: The state legislature, House and Senate on leadership of speak

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Speaker 6: Arevas and pro tem Leader of the Senate Maguire. They

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Speaker 6: then supported what we sent them. And then of course

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Speaker 6: Gavin Newsom carried the ball down the field is carrying

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Speaker 6: the ball down the field, and we're very proud of that.

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Speaker 6: But everybody, since we're all into it, people have you know,

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Speaker 6: you have to own the ground to win an election,

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Speaker 6: so everybody has a vested interest in California and doing this.

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Speaker 6: So it's we had a plan if other states have

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Speaker 6: a plan to do, but you know, we only need

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Speaker 6: three seats to win. To think, how came the speaker

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Speaker 6: understand that? So what? Oh?

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Speaker 2: I understand that?

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Speaker 3: Uh, former speaker at Pelosi, I understand it, and it's

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Speaker 3: why I favor redistricting.

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Speaker 2: Did you hear what she said?

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Speaker 3: You only need three seats to get at King Jeffries,

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Speaker 3: doesn't matter how you get there. Get there, Well Tony,

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Speaker 3: California is only redistricting because Texas did who whoa whoa,

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Speaker 3: whoa whoa. That's what you keep saying, political left, but

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Speaker 3: that isn't what's happening. Texas engaged a political process. They

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Speaker 3: engaged a political process in the state of Texas, and

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Speaker 3: it is therefore up to Texas voters to decide whether

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Speaker 3: or not they accept it. Well, Tony's redistricting, you won't

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Speaker 3: be able to these people out. The redistricting is for

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Speaker 3: the congressional level, a federal level, not on the state level.

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Speaker 3: You can vote out your state representative any time you like,

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Speaker 3: find a better candidate, find a different candidate, convince people

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Speaker 3: to vote in your direction.

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Speaker 2: Vote the guy out, vote the lady out. I'm not sexist.

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Speaker 2: Vote amount. What Nancy Pelosi said is we developed a plan.

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Speaker 3: If they're going to do this in Texas, we are

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Speaker 3: proudly engaging in retribution, and we can so manipulate the

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Speaker 3: situation as to only need three more votes to make

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Speaker 3: Hakeem Jeffries the speaker, once you understand what it is

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Speaker 3: that they're doing, what this is all about, how they're

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Speaker 3: trying to take back the House and make Haquem Jeffries

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Speaker 3: the speaker. Once you understand this and you realize how

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Speaker 3: horrible that is and that they see nothing wrong with

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Speaker 3: an act of retribution to get to their goal, and

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Speaker 3: other states should follow the model of California. The question is,

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Speaker 3: for my beloved Indiana and other states, how do you not.

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Speaker 2: This is the political fight.

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Speaker 3: People are angry with Texas because they redistricted mid decade. See,

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Speaker 3: if you redistrict after the census, right after the census,

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Speaker 3: then it's fine. They don't ever talk about how places

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Speaker 3: were redistricted to create these nonsense districts that look like

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Speaker 3: two octopy humping, and they think that that's normal. And

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Speaker 3: then they created these groups, these commissions on redistricting to

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Speaker 3: basically hold their power structure in place. And now a

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Speaker 3: Stata is saying we're not doing this, and other states

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Speaker 3: are saying we're not doing this. This is wrong to

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Speaker 3: begin with, and the leftist said, you can't do that,

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Speaker 3: you can't do that.

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Speaker 2: To our pledges. Only we could do that to our pledges.

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Speaker 2: They're not shy about it.

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Speaker 3: You can argue that you don't like what Texas did,

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Speaker 3: but you can't then argue that California is right to

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Speaker 3: do it.

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Speaker 2: Once California got into the game of retribution.

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Speaker 3: That's when I a guy who first asked a question, Okay, Texas,

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Speaker 3: you're doing what you're doing, and then someone brought up

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Speaker 3: my state Indiana. I'm like, I don't know why Indiana

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Speaker 3: would redistrict. There are nine congressional districts here, Republicans control seven.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if you're redistrict anything. Well, once you

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Speaker 3: see California, you're like, of course your redistrict. Now there's

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Speaker 3: a downside.

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Speaker 2: You can lose.

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Speaker 3: You can redistrict that still lose the seat. Of course,

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Speaker 3: this is politics, this is real stuff. Nothing is guaranteed.

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Speaker 3: But if you don't make the effort, I think you're nuts.

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Speaker 3: Because Nancy Pelosi is gonna try and make that effort

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Speaker 3: in every.

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Speaker 2: State she can. Republicans need to grow up.

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Speaker 3: This is the world we live in, not some world

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Speaker 3: where you're above at all. No, this is how we

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Speaker 3: do it. Oh, we have to be nicer would you

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Speaker 3: please get a hold of yourselves. Look at the history

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Speaker 3: of the last fifty years, look at the presidency of

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump, look at the indictments against him. Then remember

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Speaker 3: the fight that you're in. It's at this moment the

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Speaker 3: rose colored glasses need to come off and reality needs

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Speaker 3: to kick you in the face so hard you lose

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Speaker 3: a tooth.

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Speaker 5: This is the fight.

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Speaker 2: Time to get to it.

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Speaker 5: Back to.

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Speaker 3: Harry Enton talking about where Democrats are in the polling

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Speaker 3: right now, far below where they were in the mid

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Speaker 3: terms of twenty seventeen, comparing that Trump one to Trump two,

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Speaker 3: when Republicans have power and where Democrats were, Let it continue.

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Speaker 5: That's what I was going to ask.

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Speaker 1: One change from that cycle is also this mid decade

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Speaker 1: redistricting effort that we've been covering so much.

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Speaker 5: Add that in and what do you guess.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so we add that and we take a look

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Speaker 4: at the national picture. But then we've of course taking

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Speaker 4: a look at the state legislators. Right they are potentially

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Speaker 4: changing things. And there are two things that are going

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Speaker 4: on here. First off, mid decade redistricting gains. If both

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Speaker 4: sides max out at this point, there are more Republican

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Speaker 4: gains possible than Democratic gains. Yes, the Democrats might try

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Speaker 4: to counter a Texas in a California, but you go

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Speaker 4: along in the different states and basically Democrats run out

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Speaker 4: of room where Republicans are able to gain and gain

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Speaker 4: and gain. If both sides max out, we're probably looking

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Speaker 4: at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats. That

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Speaker 4: doesn't even take into account the potential gutting of the

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Speaker 4: VRA that is right now going to be in front

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Speaker 4: of the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 7: If you add that in, you could be looking, yes,

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Speaker 7: exactly right, the voting right tack. If you add that in,

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Speaker 7: then you could be looking about adding ten, twelve, fifteen,

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Speaker 7: seventeen on top of this seven seats. So I think

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Speaker 7: a lot of folks like myself were looking at this,

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Speaker 7: we're seeing, hey, wait a minute, those national polls are

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Speaker 7: Democrats are.

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Speaker 5: Not gaining the way that we expected.

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Speaker 3: So the question before us is if Harry Anton could

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Speaker 3: do the math. And I think Harry Aton's very good

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Speaker 3: at this, by the way, and I applaud a CNN

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Speaker 3: for giving him such a front and center opportunities to engage.

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Speaker 3: So honestly, why in the world would any Democrat want

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Speaker 3: California to do it.

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Speaker 2: Here's what happened. California jumped the gun.

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Speaker 3: California decided it was the same old, same old, and

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Speaker 3: they could just turn these Republicans into mush, make them

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Speaker 3: cower in fear and not do anything. And everyone on

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Speaker 3: social media could scream and yell and holler and cavetch

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Speaker 3: and do all the things. Oh, you just want to

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Speaker 3: waste people's money. You're not really a physical conservative. Oh

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Speaker 3: you just can't win on ideas.

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Speaker 2: You're such a coward. I mean, just follow my social

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Speaker 2: media feed.

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Speaker 3: A bunch of people who have never gotten out of

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Speaker 3: their basements are screaming at me. They think that can work,

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Speaker 3: because well, it always has. The numbers don't line up

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Speaker 3: for them if Republicans recognize what's happening and act accordingly.

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Speaker 3: These are all political processes, and these states can redistrict

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Speaker 3: two hours after, they redistrict two weeks two years after,

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Speaker 3: of course they can. They could do something, then move

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Speaker 3: it and then move it again, and move it again.

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Speaker 3: It's a political process, and the people could decide whether

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Speaker 3: they like it.

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Speaker 2: Or whether they don't. The way it should be.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely absolutely, we should be redistricting not only in my state,

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Speaker 3: but in every state where you recognize what it is

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Speaker 3: that the political left is doing. Oh sure, Texas started this,

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Speaker 3: you got it. You could have left Texas well enough alone,

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Speaker 3: and you didn't. And now here we are. I'm Tony Katz.

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Speaker 3: This is Tony Katz today,