Speaker 1: Why From ball Hartbiner and the Crossroads of America. It's
Speaker 1: Tony Katz today. The update with I Ran is that
Speaker 1: we're still a war of some kinds. I mean, that's
Speaker 1: really all there.
Speaker 2: Is to say, Tony Katz.
Speaker 1: Tony Katz today, Good to be here, Good to be
Speaker 1: with you, President Trump. He doesn't seem concerned, doesn't seem worried,
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to have a care in the world about it,
Speaker 1: and still wants to push the idea that, of course
Speaker 1: we control the Strait of Hormuz, and prices are dropping fast.
Speaker 2: The country is doing well.
Speaker 3: The Sack Park is fantastic, record We have seventy nine
Speaker 3: records so far in a short period of time. Four
Speaker 3: people are working right now in the United States and
Speaker 3: ever before, and prices are dropping fast. Iran is going fine,
Speaker 3: going just absolutely fine. We totally control the Strait of Hormos.
Speaker 3: We have control over it, nobody else, only US. Our
Speaker 3: navy is unbelievable and things are going great.
Speaker 4: For a cushy.
Speaker 1: I don't know how I'm supposed to respond to that, sir.
Speaker 1: I don't know how I supposed to respond when we're
Speaker 1: still over eighty dollars a barrel on oil, and it
Speaker 1: went up.
Speaker 2: Down a little bit from yesterday.
Speaker 1: I like that, but still above the seventy five number,
Speaker 1: which I'm supposed to believe is some kind of really
Speaker 1: important number to cost. And then you have the Wall
Speaker 1: Street Journal story about Iran and the survival economy. This
Speaker 1: goes to something we discussed yesterday. I believe in total honesty,
Speaker 1: and I believe in approaching everything with that, regardless of
Speaker 1: who gets upset.
Speaker 2: I believe that.
Speaker 1: Everything with Iran is winnable. You just have to be
Speaker 1: willing to do it. The conversation with Leland Viitddert of
Speaker 1: News Nation yesterday, it was about whether or not there's
Speaker 1: the will, and his argument was Iran has the will
Speaker 1: and we don't.
Speaker 2: I don't believe that part to be true.
Speaker 1: I understand that that's what it looks like right now,
Speaker 1: but I've spent a lot of time thinking about that
Speaker 1: and going over that conversation. Am I to believe that
Speaker 1: President Trump doesn't have the will to end the Islamic regime.
Speaker 1: I believe that it is not his first choice. His
Speaker 1: first choice is to get the win. We've talked about
Speaker 1: this a million times, a million times that for Trump,
Speaker 1: the first rule of trump Ism is Trump wins. The
Speaker 1: second rule of trump Ism is that a deal can
Speaker 1: always be made as long as it adheres to the
Speaker 1: first rule of trump Ism. That is true, and he
Speaker 1: can declare victory anytime, and he could say, Okay, they're
Speaker 1: not having a nuclear weapon and control of the Strait
Speaker 1: is done, We're done.
Speaker 2: He could do that anytime he wants.
Speaker 1: He always leaves himself that opportunity, always, always, always, always,
Speaker 1: always leaves himself that opportunity. But the question before us
Speaker 1: is if he doesn't get those things with clarity, then
Speaker 1: he's got a legacy issue. This was my argument that
Speaker 1: if you have the Iranians enriching uranium at all, one
Speaker 1: centrifuge spins legacy shattered. That's reality. That's the harsh reality.
Speaker 1: And certainly that had to be known going into all
Speaker 1: of this. And I'll say it again, I support ending
Speaker 1: the regime. I support ending these terrorists so we don't
Speaker 1: have to put up with these terrorists anymore. I absolutely
Speaker 1: support ending them. The President was okay with the idea
Speaker 1: of behavior change. I think this was a mistake, an
Speaker 1: incredible mistake on his part. You had to know that
Speaker 1: you're going to do the thing. You have to do
Speaker 1: the thing in totality. But there was the story as
Speaker 1: I was talking about from the war Wall Street Journal
Speaker 1: about the survival economy, and I said, this falls into
Speaker 1: the conversation we had yesterday. And I am not somebody
Speaker 1: who buys into this. Iran is defying US pressure by
Speaker 1: becoming a survival economy. Who in Iran is becoming the
Speaker 1: survival economy? That's the question before US. Tehran's leaders focus
Speaker 1: on subsistence in bid to outlast sanctions in a naval blockade.
Speaker 2: So the people.
Speaker 1: Aren't in on this, The people aren't down for this.
Speaker 1: The IRGC is saying that we're okay living on rice
Speaker 1: and water. We are absolutely going to outlast because you
Speaker 1: can't handle high gas prices.
Speaker 2: That's now. So we have the argument here.
Speaker 1: We have what it is and we can keep this
Speaker 1: is Iran speaking of the Ranium regime.
Speaker 2: We can keep throwing bombs and drones at.
Speaker 1: US bases and can kill a soldier here and kill
Speaker 1: a soldier there, and you guys can't take it. Well,
Speaker 1: this would tell me certainly that you don't stop the bombings.
Speaker 1: And certainly, as we've discussed, the deal has to be made.
Speaker 1: With the other nations in the Gulf, and they're going
Speaker 1: to have to be the ones who go in, or
Speaker 1: you're going to have to arm the Kurds. There are
Speaker 1: a lot of options. The question is will they be taken?
Speaker 1: But the idea that Iran is this defiant power the
Speaker 1: problem with this story. It's the same story with the
Speaker 1: people who utilize the term for forever wars. It doesn't
Speaker 1: mean anything. That's what they're doing today after what we
Speaker 1: already did to them. What if what we did to
Speaker 1: them we keep doing to them. Exactly how long does
Speaker 1: their survival economy last? How long does it last? And
Speaker 1: the answer is can't be very long. They this is
Speaker 1: an admission of their issues, rationing scarce goods, limiting access
Speaker 1: to foreign currency, slashing investment, putting the burden onto households,
Speaker 1: preserving imports, trying to keep safe a machinery of the state,
Speaker 1: rising poverty, you get dysfunction. But it allows them to
Speaker 1: stall the talks with the United States. I would look
Speaker 1: at that as opportunity, and I would look at that
Speaker 1: and say, this means that there's an opportunity for further
Speaker 1: and further unrest amongst the Iranian people to happen to
Speaker 1: allow them to further and further rise up against the regime. Now,
Speaker 1: the regime are a bunch of murderers. They've murdered sixty
Speaker 1: seventy thousand people. To be clear, they the Iranian regime,
Speaker 1: have murdered more of their citizens than Hamas fighting terrorists.
Speaker 1: Lowlifes were killed by the Israelis. Yet somehow Israel is
Speaker 1: the group guilty of genocide.
Speaker 2: Stop it right there.
Speaker 1: We could just end that whole conversation, as that conversation
Speaker 1: has well been ended. It said, it's noise, it's pablem
Speaker 1: said in a regurgitated Pavlovian response by nonsense merchants. Of
Speaker 1: course everybody knows this, and of course everybody knows that
Speaker 1: Hamas is a terrorist organization that started this fight, and
Speaker 1: that the quote unquote Palestinian people in the main supported
Speaker 1: Hamas and didn't do anything to help free those hostages.
Speaker 1: Hostages held and people knew where they were and no
Speaker 1: one did a thing.
Speaker 2: They were fine with it. They were good with it.
Speaker 1: Let's not think that we're dealing with the poor downtrodden
Speaker 1: people there. These are people abused by Hamas. These are
Speaker 1: people who abused the Israelis, these Jews and Americans and others,
Speaker 1: by the way, and they were thrilled to do it.
Speaker 1: No one wants to discuss this reality, but it is
Speaker 1: indeed a reality.
Speaker 2: It is the.
Speaker 1: Factual situation on the ground. Iran has murdered more people.
Speaker 1: No one calls them genocidal. It seems pretty genocidal to
Speaker 1: anybody who has a brain and who is thinking. If
Speaker 1: you want the people to rise up, you have to
Speaker 1: give them the skill set by which to rise up,
Speaker 1: which means you have to arm them.
Speaker 2: One way or another. Now, how do you arm the people?
Speaker 1: Well, this is the conversation about the Kurds, and how
Speaker 1: do you arm the Kurds, which is this ethnic group
Speaker 1: that comes from the region. There's a tremendous, tremendous population,
Speaker 1: and you can do that and they will do the work.
Speaker 1: They've stated through reporting that they will do the work.
Speaker 2: And if they will do the work, why aren't we
Speaker 2: doing it.
Speaker 1: Well, one of the reasons we're not doing it is
Speaker 1: because this was a plan from the Israelis, and it
Speaker 1: was jd Vance who got wind of it and.
Speaker 2: Said, now, let's let's not do this.
Speaker 1: Hey, let's leak this, let's not get this out there,
Speaker 1: let's not do this thing, and that was the end
Speaker 1: of that. A mistake, in my view, a massive mistake.
Speaker 2: In my view.
Speaker 1: Now, one could have argued that, hey, maybe this plan
Speaker 1: isn't the best plan. That's at least a conversation amongst
Speaker 1: military experts, people in the know. People have an idea. Okay,
Speaker 1: if you do this, here's the reaction to this, and
Speaker 1: here's how this group is going to respond. Here's how
Speaker 1: this other group is going to do things right. You
Speaker 1: could have all of that. But to say, hey, let
Speaker 1: me leak this so nothing happens whatsoever and eliminate the possibility,
Speaker 1: I think that's an absolutely massive mistake, a serious, serious error.
Speaker 1: But it goes along with jd Vance's view of this,
Speaker 1: and Jade Vance's view of this is not a good view.
Speaker 2: You either end the regime or we stay in this place.
Speaker 1: President Trump seems okay to stay in this place where
Speaker 1: the blockade is there. You keep saying that the Strait
Speaker 1: is in our control, but nothing shows that it's in
Speaker 1: our control, and you weight them out the siege mentality.
Speaker 1: I don't think you have a siege mentality without continued bombings.
Speaker 1: I think that's a big mistake. I think you have
Speaker 1: to make things uncomfortable for the IRGC, and the way
Speaker 1: you make things uncomfortable for the IRGC is they have
Speaker 1: to die. There's ways to do that. You could do
Speaker 1: it from the air, but I think you're gonna need people.
Speaker 1: You're going to need people on the ground. I want
Speaker 1: to hear more from the President about the pressure put
Speaker 1: on these Gulf nations. And you'll note you still haven't
Speaker 1: seen any movement from the Israelis. Absolutely nothing still on
Speaker 1: the Sidelast. The only thing you've heard from the Israelis
Speaker 1: recently is that they looked at the deal regarding a
Speaker 1: Hamas surrender and they're like, Nah, that's not going to work.
Speaker 1: We're not pulling a single troop out of Gaza until
Speaker 1: every Hamas fighter has surrendered and we have every single weapon.
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know how you're going to prove that.
Speaker 2: So there we are there.
Speaker 1: I mean, I like this idea of the border peace,
Speaker 1: although I think it's a terrible name, and I like
Speaker 1: the idea of other nations investing in Gaza therefore and
Speaker 1: some skin in the game.
Speaker 2: I like all of that.
Speaker 1: The whole rethink of the Middle East I like, but
Speaker 1: that rethink is coming from the president, and it has
Speaker 1: had levels of success. Why isn't that rethink coming from
Speaker 1: the other Middle East nations saying if Aram's gone, our
Speaker 1: life is easier, If this regime is gone, our life
Speaker 1: is better. What are we doing? What are we waiting for?
Speaker 1: They've never been this week. Let's go to work, Tony,
Speaker 1: their week. But they're still able to do this, this, this, this,
Speaker 1: and this, Yes, and imagine what happens, and they could
Speaker 1: have a nuclear weapon. So I'm glad we took out
Speaker 1: those facilities. I am Tony. They were never close to
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon. It was all a lie. I don't
Speaker 1: believe any of that, Like I don't believe that the
Speaker 1: US was forced into this, manipulated by Israel. I don't
Speaker 1: believe in any of that either, Not for a second
Speaker 1: do I buy into any of that. The threat is
Speaker 1: the threat, and they've always shown themselves to be the threat,
Speaker 1: and they're still showing themselves to be the threat. So
Speaker 1: I don't know why anybody would think that somehow you
Speaker 1: had to be drawn into something when it was clear
Speaker 1: and obvious.
Speaker 2: But there's a reason that Israel right now is on
Speaker 2: the sidelines.
Speaker 1: There's a reason that being kept on the sidelines that
Speaker 1: much is crystal crystal, crystal clear.
Speaker 2: And I don't know why at this moment they.
Speaker 1: Aren't being unleashed to do more of what they can do,
Speaker 1: which is this precision attack, precision fighting, and maybe further
Speaker 1: crack the IRGC, which would create opportunities for us.
Speaker 2: Maybe that's coming.
Speaker 1: But the idea of Iran is able to wade us
Speaker 1: out because they are in a survival economy.
Speaker 2: That's now, when the water runs.
Speaker 1: Out, when the beans run out, you know, you know
Speaker 1: what I mean, there comes a moment where this becomes
Speaker 1: more and more untenable for the people, and they are
Speaker 1: something you have to contend with. Now, the world's going
Speaker 1: to watch these people get murdered by the Iranian regime. Well,
Speaker 1: so far they have, world's done absolutely nothing. How long
Speaker 1: does that last?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a high stakes game, no question, this
Speaker 1: is a serious high stakes game. If we're going to
Speaker 1: go the siege route, I don't have a choice. That's
Speaker 1: the update we go the siege route. Does Iran have
Speaker 1: the desire to wait us out? Absolutely?
Speaker 2: Right now? Do they have will? Absolutely? Do we I
Speaker 2: would hope so?
Speaker 1: And do I think that President Trump has wholly given
Speaker 1: up on this. He actually don't. Maybe you can call
Speaker 1: it naive it, maybe you can call it hope. It's
Speaker 1: just I think he's trying different tactics in all the ways.
Speaker 1: He tries different things, and if it's come to a
Speaker 1: place of weigh him out, he's gonna try it to
Speaker 1: wag him out, especially if he.
Speaker 2: Doesn't think it hurts him too bad.
Speaker 1: Just stop saying that the strait is open, we have control.
Speaker 1: If we had control, oil would be below eighty dollars
Speaker 1: a barrel. We don't yet, So get it or stop
Speaker 1: saying it. That's that is, at the very least, would
Speaker 1: make us all happy because we're tired of hearing.
Speaker 2: The nonsense about this.
Speaker 1: Keep it here. I'm Tony Kats. Find everything at tonycats
Speaker 1: dot com. This is Tony Kats today.
Speaker 6: We've got twelve and a half billion dollars a little
Speaker 6: less than a year ago, about ten months ago, and
Speaker 6: we have been working over time to deliver for the
Speaker 6: American people. So thus far we have changed out sixty
Speaker 6: percent of the copper to fiber. Once we get done
Speaker 6: switching over to fiber, where they're going to have to
Speaker 6: take our network from analog to digital. Don't laugh at us.
Speaker 6: Most companies have done this years ago. We are about
Speaker 6: to do that here at the FAA.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's embarrassing this modernization that's only happening now at
Speaker 1: our airports.
Speaker 2: But it's like the Cobbler's kids.
Speaker 1: You know, everybody has shoes, and the cobblers kids doesn't
Speaker 1: because the Cobbler's too busy make and choose for the
Speaker 1: other people. It's kind of that, and it's kind of,
Speaker 1: you know, just a whole bunch of ignorance until now.
Speaker 1: Tony Kats. Tony Kats today, A pleasure to be here, guys.
Speaker 1: Thanks for you, Thanks to you for being here. If
Speaker 1: I could talk, i'd be a great radio host. This
Speaker 1: is the Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy saying we're modernizing,
Speaker 1: We're getting things on track, We're working on getting things done.
Speaker 1: This is the press conference yesterday.
Speaker 6: We have installed ninety six surface awareness systems like the
Speaker 6: one we are going to deploy today here at Newark.
Speaker 6: We have deployed nine new radar systems, three hundred and
Speaker 6: sixty three analogue radios that we use between air traffic
Speaker 6: controllers and our pilots and airplanes. That's going from analog
Speaker 6: to digital. Nineteen towers have been converted to electronic flight strips.
Speaker 6: We have one hundred and fifty one new voice switch
Speaker 6: systems across America.
Speaker 2: They are making moves.
Speaker 1: I'm thrilled to see it, and I'm I'm a fan
Speaker 1: of Sean Duffies. I think he has been outrageously impressive.
Speaker 1: You go back to his first day on the job,
Speaker 1: he gets sworn in, and then that evening you have
Speaker 1: the Regional American Airlines jet hitting the helicopter outside of
Speaker 1: DC on approach into Reagan National helicopter shouldn't have been there,
Speaker 1: or a pilot error, as at least was reported, horrifying
Speaker 1: people dead, awful, awful, terrible, And there he was less
Speaker 1: than a day on the job doing this, and he
Speaker 1: has been on top of it and professional ever since.
Speaker 2: And it is not glamorous.
Speaker 1: It's not Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of
Speaker 1: the Treasury. It's not glamorous. It's just getting done day
Speaker 1: by day. This isn't Pete Buddha judges to Apartment of
Speaker 1: Transportation where there's talk of chuotchoo trains and look at me,
Speaker 1: I'm riding my bike to work. After the suv drops
Speaker 1: me off two blocks from the office.
Speaker 2: That happened. You saw it, and I, oh, yeah, if
Speaker 2: you didn't know that, actually that actually was a thing
Speaker 2: that happened.
Speaker 1: No work's getting done, the systems are getting upgraded.
Speaker 2: This is good.
Speaker 1: This is I can't even believe I'm saying this regarding
Speaker 1: government but efficient. I'm thrilled by what I'm seeing, and
Speaker 1: I'm thrilled to have somebody who is focused on not
Speaker 1: pretending to breastfeed, but is focused on the job. These
Speaker 1: things matter, and they are indeed unglamorous, but they do
Speaker 1: require our time. You know, I am a believer that
Speaker 1: we should end the income tax. Oh, I wholeheartedly believe
Speaker 1: that the income tax is a sin. The idea that
Speaker 1: government has any connection to my labor, has any right
Speaker 1: to my labor, is nonsense. I also argue that no
Speaker 1: good has ever come from the income tax. I feel
Speaker 1: differently on a state level, although when it comes to
Speaker 1: income taxes, I'm always the same. But states can do
Speaker 1: things that I believe the federal government should not be
Speaker 1: allowed to do. We should absolutely get rid of the
Speaker 1: income tax. That is different than whether or not I
Speaker 1: believe they can collect taxes. It's different than whether or
Speaker 1: not I believe that there is a price to pay
Speaker 1: for the liberty society and keeping these things going and
Speaker 1: flowing and working. Now we can argue that's not the
Speaker 1: role of government, that's actually the role of the airport itself. Well,
Speaker 1: we can discuss an idea of standards. We can discuss
Speaker 1: that we may not want big government, but we can
Speaker 1: at least agree in an article on section eight. We
Speaker 1: can agree on some basic skills things. And if this
Speaker 1: is going to be one of the basic things we
Speaker 1: agree on, I don't mind it being funded. What I
Speaker 1: want is professionalism. I want to focus on making sure
Speaker 1: the dollar is not misspent or mis managed, and I
Speaker 1: want results to that end.
Speaker 2: I like seeing this.
Speaker 1: Sean Duffy is getting results, and this is good.
Speaker 2: This is very, very very good. I want to see
Speaker 2: more of it.
Speaker 1: I'm not one hundred percent sure in what other capacity
Speaker 1: we're going to see it, what Department of transportation, There
Speaker 1: could be some.
Speaker 2: Things, but this is what we want to see across
Speaker 2: the board. If we're going to spend our money, we
Speaker 2: want success.
Speaker 1: We want to see rational people, professional people, doing a professional.
Speaker 2: Job and getting it done quickly and clearly. Good on
Speaker 2: Seawan Duffy. This is Tony Kats today.
Speaker 1: So the numbers come in on the consumer price index,
Speaker 1: an inflation conversation, and they're up point one point one.
Speaker 1: Huh that ain't that ain't bad at all. The annual
Speaker 1: rates three point four, Well, that's not great, but it's.
Speaker 2: Not going up. If inflation is not going up.
Speaker 1: It's going to tell the Federal Reserve don't do any
Speaker 1: rate hikes because they want to because inflation is still
Speaker 1: too high. But the measure doesn't make any sense when
Speaker 1: you get rid of food and energy, volatile energy and
Speaker 1: it goes up to point two. I don't understand what's
Speaker 1: happening here, Tony Katz, Tony Kats today, Good to be
Speaker 1: with you. Doctor Batt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis,
Speaker 1: is here to make it all make sense. This is peculiar, right,
Speaker 1: because there's a lot of conversation about that. The Fed
Speaker 1: was going to raise rates in September. You have two
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve governors who want to do that because the
Speaker 1: inflation is still too high. Tariffs are causing that. Tarots
Speaker 1: did not create an explosion of inflation. It's just keeping
Speaker 1: it higher than we want it to. Be, but you
Speaker 1: also have this madness of oil prices because of what's
Speaker 1: going on in Iran that's having an effect. Yet somehow,
Speaker 1: if I take energy out, the measure of inflation goes up,
Speaker 1: and that doesn't make any sense at all. So let's
Speaker 1: start where we start, doctor Matt Will. What does this
Speaker 1: report say to you?
Speaker 4: Well, first of all, you got to remember that this
Speaker 4: is not the report that the FED is going to
Speaker 4: use to make decisions. But it does give Kevin Walsh
Speaker 4: cover and we spoke of that just about that just
Speaker 4: a few days ago. Kevin now has more time. This
Speaker 4: is a good enough report that it's going to give
Speaker 4: him some breathing room again to not have to make
Speaker 4: a decision to increase rates to control inflation, because this
Speaker 4: isn't the measure that they use to make their decisions.
Speaker 4: But here's the good news. So the report point one
Speaker 4: for the months, it's now a trend. Last month it
Speaker 4: was down point four down. So we now have a
Speaker 4: two month decent trend in the CPI, which is what
Speaker 4: you and I pay when we go to the grocery
Speaker 4: store core you mentioned at point two point two. That's
Speaker 4: two point four annualized. That's still too high, but the
Speaker 4: rest of the report gives him cover. In fact, when
Speaker 4: you dig down into the details, almost every category is
Speaker 4: in good shape. The only two that are not are
Speaker 4: airline tickets, which are two point two percent for the month,
Speaker 4: and healthcare, which is point six. The healthcare is persistent.
Speaker 4: We continue to see an increase in healthcare inflation. That
Speaker 4: is the big red flag in this report. If there
Speaker 4: is one, the airlines, I'm not worried about. That's a
Speaker 4: blip because they have contracted inventory during the whole situation
Speaker 4: with Iran. They're going to expand their inventory once things stabilize.
Speaker 4: It's a good report. It's not a decision report. But
Speaker 4: the bottom line for me is it gives Kevin Walsh
Speaker 4: more time to make the right decisions. So he should
Speaker 4: be happy, and quite honestly, we should be happy because
Speaker 4: he'll probably end up doing the right thing on inflation.
Speaker 1: Now, let me you said trend. Now, let me go
Speaker 1: through a couple numbers with you. If I take a
Speaker 1: look at all items from May, June and July, all
Speaker 1: items was point five negative point four and last month
Speaker 1: point one that we're discussing. If I take out food
Speaker 1: and energy, it goes point two zero point zero and
Speaker 1: then point two.
Speaker 2: What we just saw in the month of July. What
Speaker 2: the hell kind of trend does that?
Speaker 4: Well, okay, it's not a uniform trend, but they're all low.
Speaker 4: When you take with you, when you look at the core,
Speaker 4: which you did, and those numbers you just listed, those
Speaker 4: are consistently low. Now I know I'm saying low. You
Speaker 4: and I don't agree. Two point four percent inflation is
Speaker 4: not low, but it's lower than it was, and it's
Speaker 4: low enough that it's going to allow him to not
Speaker 4: have to take inflation reactions quickly. And again, I've told
Speaker 4: you before and I'll say it again. I don't think
Speaker 4: the way you fight inflation right now is by increasing
Speaker 4: the Fed Funds rate. I think the Fed Funds rate
Speaker 4: is stable. It should stay stable. I like where it's at.
Speaker 4: The way that he wants to fight it, and the
Speaker 4: way I also want to fight it is to begin
Speaker 4: to sell assets off the balance sheet.
Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis,
Speaker 1: we'll save that conversation for another day. Annual inflation rate
Speaker 1: at three point four percent. We look at this, the
Speaker 1: market looks at this and says, we don't care.
Speaker 4: Well, okay, again, market's looking at it like I do.
Speaker 4: That three point four percent is a government number that's
Speaker 4: twelve months old. They're not looking twelve months old. The
Speaker 4: market is looking at this month and last month, and
Speaker 4: both of these months. If you look at the headline
Speaker 4: number negative point four and point one. The market likes it.
Speaker 4: So immediately when this report was released, four things happened.
Speaker 4: We saw that the Nasdaq went up, We saw that
Speaker 4: the Dow went up. We saw that interest rates went
Speaker 4: down into both the ten year and the two year,
Speaker 4: so we saw a decrease in rates. We saw an
Speaker 4: increase in the stock market. The market likes this report
Speaker 4: because they see the same thing I see. Kevin Varsh
Speaker 4: gets breathing room, and that's what they want him to have.
Speaker 1: All Right, you're going to drag me into this conversation
Speaker 1: because your argument, sir, is that the removing of things
Speaker 1: from the balance sheet is the golden goose. Once that
Speaker 1: starts happening, everybody does better. The tariffs won't matter, oil
Speaker 1: prices won't matter. Your pain in the ass brother in
Speaker 1: law won't matter. Nothing matters if we take things off
Speaker 1: the balance sheet. First, describe what it means to take
Speaker 1: things off the balance sheet. What is Kevin Walsh, the
Speaker 1: new chair of the Federal Reserve, believes in, And then
Speaker 1: is it indeed the panacea we've all been hoping for.
Speaker 4: Well, I'm gonna answer your first your second question. First,
Speaker 4: it's not the panacea, but it's one of the pieces.
Speaker 4: Tariffs are the other piece, and that is a big,
Speaker 4: big problem. And I will refer people to an article
Speaker 4: that you sent me about, you know, mister wonderful Kevin N.
Speaker 4: Leary talking about how bad the tariffs are and how
Speaker 4: the AI is covering up the damage done by those.
Speaker 4: So no, it's not the panacea, but the way it
Speaker 4: works is very simple. The Fed and anybody should look
Speaker 4: this up. Just go to Google and look up FED
Speaker 4: balance sheet and look at the image. Look up images.
Speaker 4: You'll see this massive balance sheet that they have. They
Speaker 4: own all these assets, mortgages, treasury bills. They need to
Speaker 4: sell those. They've been buying them to juice the economy
Speaker 4: that was wrong. They need to sell them because here's
Speaker 4: what happens. They sell a bond because the government owns it.
Speaker 4: They sell a mortgage because the government owns it. As
Speaker 4: soon as they sell those, they receive cash. And that
Speaker 4: cash is removed from the economy. That is the key.
Speaker 4: When they remove the cash from the economy, inflation goes down.
Speaker 4: They need to sell these assets. They need to take
Speaker 4: cash out of the economy. Kevin Warsh knows that's the
Speaker 4: way to do it, not by increasing interest rates. That
Speaker 4: is not the right solution. Interest rates are now in
Speaker 4: a very good equilibrium location. Now they need to sell
Speaker 4: assets and pull that cash out of the economy. But
Speaker 4: there are other parts, like we mentioned, like tariffs, like
Speaker 4: federal government deficits.
Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Wyal, economists at the University of Indianapolis,
Speaker 1: let me throw a curve your way. I wanted to
Speaker 1: talk to you about the report, but in the world
Speaker 1: of ai as, what I had sent you regarding Kevin
Speaker 1: O'Leary is that Kevin O'Leary's point is that we're spending
Speaker 1: so much money investing in AI it is booying the economy.
Speaker 2: And if it wasn't for that, the tariffs.
Speaker 1: Would knock this not out of this economy and break
Speaker 1: it into And I sent that to you and your
Speaker 1: response to me was where I was at. He clearly
Speaker 1: listens to our conversations. He's listening to the show every
Speaker 1: single day. We've been having this conversation for over a
Speaker 1: year now in different ways. But on the AI tip,
Speaker 1: Brad Lightcamp, who was the chief operating officer for open Ai,
Speaker 1: has left the company. He's going to start something new.
Speaker 1: The question before us is is this a sign of
Speaker 1: something bad that at the one of the bigger AI
Speaker 1: groups that you're starting to see it's not just him.
Speaker 2: You're seeing people head for the exits.
Speaker 4: Wait, wait, are they heading for the exits or are
Speaker 4: they heading for new opportunities? I mean, think about it.
Speaker 4: If you were a big shot in one of these companies,
Speaker 4: You've got your stock options, you've got your pay that
Speaker 4: you've made over the years you cashed in. But wait,
Speaker 4: we're at the beginning of this boom, and I believe
Speaker 4: we're at the beginning of this boom. Wouldn't you go
Speaker 4: off and be, you know, the next Steve Jobs, the
Speaker 4: next Bill Gates. Wouldn't you want to start your own
Speaker 4: I really believe that these people know there's a golden
Speaker 4: goose out there and they're going to go get their own.
Speaker 2: When you say get their own, that is to believe
Speaker 2: that is to believe that there's more investment to come.
Speaker 2: We're already into the We're over a trillion dollars in
Speaker 2: the investments, and you're telling me that there's more to come. Now.
Speaker 1: I'm not a believer that the pie is finite, right,
Speaker 1: I'm not a player in that, but even I have
Speaker 1: to ask the question, exactly how much more investment can
Speaker 1: there possibly be?
Speaker 4: Okay, I don't have the number in front of me
Speaker 4: at my fingertips, but just go look at what Meta
Speaker 4: did last two weeks. They announced massive bond issues for
Speaker 4: the purposes of getting so much cash that could dump
Speaker 4: into data centers and AI development. Apple, which is way
Speaker 4: behind the curve on this. They aren't even in the
Speaker 4: game yet. Wait till they get into the AI game.
Speaker 4: Apple has a history. I'm not a fan of Apple's
Speaker 4: r indeed since Steve Jobs passed, but I got to
Speaker 4: tell you they's nothing to be sneezed at. This company
Speaker 4: knows what they're doing.
Speaker 3: This.
Speaker 4: People are going to look back and, oh, you're kidding me.
Speaker 4: I should have gotten into the E the AI early.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not too late to get in on AI.
Speaker 4: This thing is just beginning to take off. I mean,
Speaker 4: I could give you this week of people entrepreneurs I've
Speaker 4: had conversations with who are saying it's revolutionizing their business
Speaker 4: across the world.
Speaker 1: Great, it's revolutionizing their business across the world. And there
Speaker 1: are going to be plenty of places that there's pushback on,
Speaker 1: like you know what, we tried to say, I crap
Speaker 1: and it doesn't work.
Speaker 2: We tried to say I stuff.
Speaker 1: You know what, we actually need people again these things
Speaker 1: EBB and flow.
Speaker 2: My question was.
Speaker 1: To the idea of is there a moment where markets
Speaker 1: say that's too much investment, that you guys are spending
Speaker 1: in the wrong places. We need to self correct on
Speaker 1: all of this because you're all being ridiculous.
Speaker 4: You know what. The answer is, yes, but this is
Speaker 4: not that situation. This is not a bubble like two
Speaker 4: thousand and one. Because these companies have earnings. These companies
Speaker 4: up profits. Another reason that we see CPI being moderated
Speaker 4: and not let's go back to the original topic and
Speaker 4: not the producer prices those things are still inflated is
Speaker 4: because the profits are so huge. These profits are justified.
Speaker 4: These prices are justified when you see the price of
Speaker 4: a stock going up. This is not you know, a
Speaker 4: one hundred times earnings with no earnings. Sometimes these are earnings,
Speaker 4: these are profits, and the prices are reasonable given the
Speaker 4: growth in these companies. There is no bubble here. There
Speaker 4: is will the market go down at some point, of course,
Speaker 4: but there is no bubble that we're looking at in
Speaker 4: the near future.
Speaker 1: Doctor Matt Well, economist at the University of Indianapolis. I
Speaker 1: appreciate you taking the time to be with us. Keep
Speaker 1: it right here. This is Tony Katz today. So those
Speaker 1: primary results, yeah, sure, the progressive wins in Minnesota in
Speaker 1: that center right, so the Democrats. But it's not like
Speaker 1: Angie Craig wasn't also going to be a leftist. It's
Speaker 1: that Peggy Flanagan is a ridiculous life leftist.
Speaker 2: Tony Katz, Tony Katz today.
Speaker 1: These are the people who else who decided that Amy
Speaker 1: Klobachar should be the nominee for governor. I mean, she's
Speaker 1: gonna get elected governor. It's unbelievable to witness. I've always argued, though,
Speaker 1: that Klobachar has something in her that has the capacity
Speaker 1: to be normal. I believe that she has it in her.
Speaker 1: The question is will she do it? And more often
Speaker 1: than not, she chooses no. She'd rather just you know,
Speaker 1: throw a stapler at you or use it to eat
Speaker 1: a salad.
Speaker 2: She's an odd, odd bird.
Speaker 1: And then in Wisconsin, the big one, Francesca Hung loses
Speaker 1: the primary.
Speaker 2: She loses the.
Speaker 1: Primary when she was twenty two points ahead, twenty two
Speaker 1: points in some poles, she was double digits ahead. And
Speaker 1: in the end she loses the primary to David Crowley,
Speaker 1: whose name you never heard in Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: How does that happen? How did they get the polling
Speaker 2: so wrong?
Speaker 1: Listen the socialists, which is to say, the communist doesn't care.
Speaker 1: They're moving forward, they're moving forward to pace because they've
Speaker 1: got a plan, they've got a strategy, they've got a philosophy.
Speaker 1: And this is Zaron Mamdani before he was mayor, when
Speaker 1: he was community organizer. Are just you know layman KMMI Islamist,
Speaker 1: a living example of the right Green Alliance, and this
Speaker 1: was his plan and strategy.
Speaker 5: I think that with the interesting thing about our communities
Speaker 5: here is I think that minority communities, because we have
Speaker 5: never had representation, we are tied much more to identity.
Speaker 5: White communities they've had representation forever, and so for them,
Speaker 5: their tie is a little less identity and a little
Speaker 5: more ideology. And so what I mean by that is,
Speaker 5: we have a lot of voters here who think of
Speaker 5: themselves first as progressive voters, and so we reach out
Speaker 5: to them speaking about our platform, our progressive platform. And
Speaker 5: you're very right that you need someone in the middle
Speaker 5: to be a validator, someone to tell them to trust us,
Speaker 5: believe in us. We've had that with Tiffany Kaban and
Speaker 5: Cynthia Nixon.
Speaker 1: So the plan is to use liberal white women like
Speaker 1: like Cynthia Nixon, or just liberal women in general, to
Speaker 1: get yourself into white communities to get them to vote
Speaker 1: for you. I will say liberal women. I've always said this,
Speaker 1: liberal white women most dangerous people in America because they'll
Speaker 1: allow anything.
Speaker 2: They will allow anything.
Speaker 1: But it's an interesting point about identity versus ideology. This
Speaker 1: is black people voting for black candidates, Muslims voting for
Speaker 1: Muslim candidates, So we don't care about anything else, just
Speaker 1: muslim click check.
Speaker 2: No, no, no.
Speaker 1: We can't, we can't have this. They're the ones screaming racism.
Speaker 1: They're the ones screaming all sorts of xenophobic this and
Speaker 1: and whiteness is the problem.
Speaker 2: Look at what they're doing. They're admitted to who they
Speaker 2: are and how they work and all the rest.
Speaker 1: We could get these people to vote as this block
Speaker 1: because the only thing that will matter is that we
Speaker 1: share this skin color or this identity, and we'll use
Speaker 1: liberal white women to get white women to come for us,
Speaker 1: to come to our side, to.
Speaker 2: Vote for us.
Speaker 1: That's very telling. That's a plan, that's a strategy. Before
Speaker 1: you knew his name, he was working the game. He
Speaker 1: was working the strategy. Do we understand what it is
Speaker 1: that we're up against when we talk about these communists?
Speaker 1: How long it's been happened? And this goes back to
Speaker 1: the Secretary of States report on Cuba. This has been
Speaker 1: the effort and it's getting results. And they don't care
Speaker 1: if they lose some primary Wisconsin. They'll be back at
Speaker 1: it two years, and you better damn we'll be ready
Speaker 1: for it. Find out every thing at Tonycotts dot com.
Speaker 1: I'll catch you tomorrow. Everybody, take care