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Speaker 1: I thought it was odd when the retired General Kellogg,

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Speaker 1: who's a special envoy for President Trump, said that he

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Speaker 1: and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Raisin Kane,

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Speaker 1: told him that Russia is losing this war with Ukraine

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Speaker 1: because the data has not said such a thing. Now

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Speaker 1: there are ebbs and there are flows. That we should

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Speaker 1: be clear that the Russians don't have a great army,

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Speaker 1: and that they were supposed to be able to take

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Speaker 1: Ukraine all those years ago, three years ago plus in

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Speaker 1: three days, and then they decided to drive tanks across

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Speaker 1: muddy fields, and now here we are still stuck in

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Speaker 1: the mud in almost this level of World War One esque,

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Speaker 1: a trench warfare regarding taking a little bit of land,

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Speaker 1: losing a little bit of land, taking a little losing

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Speaker 1: a little bit of land. But in the main, Russia

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Speaker 1: owned seventy to ninety percent of the dunboss Stonetsk and Luhansk.

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Speaker 1: They owned sixty to eighty present of another region called Zaporsia,

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Speaker 1: working its way down to Krimea. They attended Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 1: attended the meeting with President Trump, and then nothing has happened,

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Speaker 1: except for, of course, a drone attack on Poland.

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Speaker 2: They don't seem daunted.

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Speaker 1: They seem like they're moving forward, that they have the

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Speaker 1: upper hand and they can get more concessions.

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Speaker 2: But the Ukrainians are willing, and.

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Speaker 1: Their drone strikes with these very weird looking drones, drones

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Speaker 1: that look like they were made by the Wright Brothers

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Speaker 1: a Kiddihawk, are ruining and destroying oil refineries and forcing

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Speaker 1: the Russians to not be able to export gas, export energy,

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Speaker 1: which is affecting them financially. Tony Katz, Tony Katz today,

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Speaker 1: good to be with you. Major Mike Lyons joins me

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Speaker 1: right now, retired United States Army military analyst. I want

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Speaker 1: to get into the Russian story, but first, just quickly,

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Speaker 1: as I brought it up earlier. You have the Israelis

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Speaker 1: making the decision to make moves on Gaza. They are

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Speaker 1: moving in. People are trying to avoid what might be coming.

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Speaker 1: You have the President saying that there's a real concern

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Speaker 1: if Hamas is using the hostages as human shields, that's

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Speaker 1: going to be a real problem. But they've always been

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Speaker 1: using Hamas as human shields, or a Poustitians as human shields,

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Speaker 1: or anybody's that they can as human shields. Is there

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Speaker 1: something different about Israel's move now and does it signal

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Speaker 1: something to you about where this war is.

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Speaker 3: Going Tony, Yes, what's different is that it's this is

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Speaker 3: the beginning of the end now for Hamas. From Israel's perspective,

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Speaker 3: I think they will go into the tunnels, likely knowing

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Speaker 3: they won't pull a hostage out alive than the ones.

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Speaker 3: They might not get the remains back of the ones

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Speaker 3: that have already been killed. I think that this is

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Speaker 3: the perfect combination of political pressure plus military application. You

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Speaker 3: know it because I do think that maybe Nittya I

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Speaker 3: was running out of time with regard to getting this

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Speaker 3: thing over. I think the president, our president, wants it

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Speaker 3: over as soon as possible. So this is the quick

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Speaker 3: application of a military operation flooding those tunnels, that those

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Speaker 3: tunnels remain Hamasa's sword and shield and all those things

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Speaker 3: about it, and something that you haven't seen in history,

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Speaker 3: you know, going back to the Vietnam War and other

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Speaker 3: places when the enemy used that kind of a system.

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Speaker 3: But this is the beginning of the end now from

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Speaker 3: Hamas's perspective. The attacks on Doho started that the decapitation strategy.

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Speaker 3: That's what Israel always leads to with anyway. But I

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Speaker 3: think I think Israel is going to look to declare

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Speaker 3: victory within the next few weeks.

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Speaker 2: Let's say, you, what.

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Speaker 1: Do you believe has changed to make Israel say and

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Speaker 1: getting back these.

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Speaker 2: People has been the only thing on their mind.

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Speaker 1: We can't get them back because they knew they would

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Speaker 1: have to destroy Hamas we knew this was always coming

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Speaker 1: October eighth.

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Speaker 2: The entirety of Israel changed on that side.

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Speaker 1: Object But this is an admission of they're going to die,

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Speaker 1: or they're already dead, and there's nothing we can do

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Speaker 1: about it. That's a very different approach.

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Speaker 2: What brought Net and Yahoo and his cabinet to this place.

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Speaker 3: I think the clock and I mean by that is

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Speaker 3: I think our president's running out of time of supporting

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Speaker 3: Israel and Yah, who does not want to be a

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Speaker 3: political liability for Donald Trump, recognizing that we have elections

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Speaker 3: in our country next year, and it's important that from

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Speaker 3: his perspective that Trump and the Republicans maintained control of

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Speaker 3: the Senate in the House. And so I think that's

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Speaker 3: what's driving this again political decision and the application of

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Speaker 3: the military in order to support that. So that the

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Speaker 3: time is now to get this done, to get it

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Speaker 3: done as fast as possible. Israel has recalled all the

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Speaker 3: reservists in order to do this, hundreds of thousands, so

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Speaker 3: the country remains all in. And I think that's that's

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Speaker 3: what basically drove this train, is that they don't want

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Speaker 3: to volatile President Trump telling them eventually that's saying that's it.

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Speaker 3: They'll have to cut off any kind of support we

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Speaker 3: have for Israel. That would be just, you know, unsatisfactory

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Speaker 3: from Israel's perspective.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired in the United States

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Speaker 1: Army military analyst, Now let's move it over.

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Speaker 2: To Russia and Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: What we see is these very weird looking drones, sir.

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Speaker 2: And when I say very very weird, they they they

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Speaker 2: don't look like drones. They look like here, let me

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Speaker 2: see if I can pull up a photo for you.

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Speaker 2: These things. They they look like what's the what's the

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Speaker 2: best word I can I can come up with. They

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Speaker 2: look like planes from Kiddiehawk.

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Speaker 1: They look like something you would build with your dad

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Speaker 1: in the backyard out of plywood.

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Speaker 2: Don't going to look like it should fly.

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Speaker 1: And these things are flying over one thousand kilometers right

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Speaker 1: to hit Russian oil refineries with great success. Talk to

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Speaker 1: me about what these planes are. How did they get

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Speaker 1: this technology to the even though it looks so crude

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Speaker 1: to rudimentary, and what effect is it having.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's basically the laws of physics. I mean, those

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Speaker 3: are just think of gliders. During World War Two, we

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Speaker 3: didn't have to necessarily put every paratrooper inside a airplane.

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Speaker 3: We could put them in a glider and have them

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Speaker 3: pulled along by another aircraft. The fact that they could

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Speaker 3: put them in a plane that size and fly low

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Speaker 3: out of the Russian air defense systems and the like.

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Speaker 3: They're quiet, likely run by electronics and not necessarily gas.

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Speaker 3: They don't make a lot of noise, and because of

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Speaker 3: the size of them, because of just plane physics, they

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Speaker 3: could gate the distance that they need to attack deep strike.

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Speaker 3: It's very primitive, you're absolutely right. But it just shows

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Speaker 3: the creativity on the Ukraine side when it comes to

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Speaker 3: the kinds of weapons that they're creating in order to

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Speaker 3: be disruptive on the battlefield and to do what it

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Speaker 3: can against Russia. I just actually got back for a

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Speaker 3: conference on a lot of things drones and autonomous devices.

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Speaker 3: The next battlefield is getting very much looking like Terminator

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Speaker 3: from from the things that I saw demonstrated with regard

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Speaker 3: to this capabilities autonomous systems. It's not just the simple

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Speaker 3: drone as you and I have seen that you know, have.

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Speaker 2: Four propellers and flies above. It's like that.

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Speaker 3: It's like you say, what you've just shown. It's an

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Speaker 3: air an old model airplane that's that's full of explosives

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Speaker 3: that could go great distances. It's vehicles that don't have

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Speaker 3: any that that can transport things without any people transporting them.

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Speaker 3: So it's it's pretty amazing where Ukraine has taken the

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Speaker 3: United States in particular. So we're not a combatant in this,

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Speaker 3: which is often difficult.

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Speaker 2: We get lazy.

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Speaker 3: Countries that are not combatants in these kinds of operations

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Speaker 3: get lazy and don't recognize what they have to do

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Speaker 3: to evolve, while the Ukraine has evolved and done these things.

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Speaker 3: So we've got to pay close attention to make sure

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Speaker 3: that our war fighting capability remains up to park because

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Speaker 3: this is what the next battlefield is going to look like.

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Speaker 1: There's been talk that the Trump administration has reduced the

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Speaker 1: number of weapons, the number of whether it's it's a

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Speaker 1: patriot not necessarily a patriot conversation, but whether it's guns

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Speaker 1: or whether it's missiles. Reduced that number to Ukraine, And

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Speaker 1: the original thought was.

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Speaker 2: Was that this is trying to.

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Speaker 1: Apply a pressure point to Ukraine to better come to

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Speaker 1: the table and agree to more of what Russia wants,

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Speaker 1: so we could say, so Trump could say, got a deal,

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Speaker 1: this is done, this is finished, We've got peace in

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Speaker 1: our time. One of those kinds of conversations which never

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Speaker 1: really ends.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 1: Then you had Russia engaging these drones flying into Polish airspace.

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Speaker 1: The polls shot a bunch of them down, which I thought,

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Speaker 1: again was Russia trying to say, listen, you're gonna give

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Speaker 1: in to more of our demands or we're just gonna

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Speaker 1: keep the saber rattling up to the drones that were

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Speaker 1: flying in Polish airspace and Poland invoking Article four, which

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Speaker 1: is basically when you call your friends and you're like,

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Speaker 1: are you ready to roll because we might have to roll?

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Speaker 1: Is what was the response from Poland? And did that

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Speaker 1: encourage and signal to you that Russia is trying to

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Speaker 1: further saber rattle to get more concessions to put a

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Speaker 1: quote unquote end to this war.

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Speaker 2: No, I think that was a mistake.

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Speaker 3: I think the Russians don't have full control over some

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Speaker 3: of their autonomous systems. That's likely a mistake that does

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Speaker 3: not further Russia's negotiating power on any level. In fact,

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Speaker 3: it could also cause the NATO countries to increase what

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Speaker 3: they're doing already. So that was a mistake that they made.

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Speaker 3: They're trying to get close to the border. There's assets there.

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Speaker 3: There's some trains, train tracks and roads and cities that

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Speaker 3: are in western Ukraine that Russia feels they have to

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Speaker 3: do from a deep strike perspective. We've seen it before.

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Speaker 3: We've seen some of their missiles go off off course

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Speaker 3: and land inside the boundary there as well.

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Speaker 2: I think that was a mistake.

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Speaker 3: I don't think Russia is looking for, you know, try

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Speaker 3: to saber rattle any more concession out of this. There's

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Speaker 3: no more saber rattling to do. And I think right

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Speaker 3: now the sticking point seems to be troops on the

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Speaker 3: ground and what the future of Ukraine looks like.

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Speaker 2: I allow me to push back on you on you, sir.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired United States Army military analyst,

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Speaker 1: how can we say for Russia, there's no more saber

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Speaker 1: rattling to do. You sit there in the meeting with

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Speaker 1: President Trump and angriage and anchorage, you say, you know

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Speaker 1: this wouldn't happened if you were president. You leave the meeting,

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Speaker 1: You're like, I don't care. You keep at it, you

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Speaker 1: keep on the bombings. You do it with the rather indiscriminateness.

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Speaker 1: You know Trump's going to be upset with you, you don't care.

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Speaker 1: It would seem to me it's only a level of

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Speaker 1: saber rattling and more aggression to be able to get

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Speaker 1: more level of concession.

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Speaker 2: That's yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think The reason why I don't think so is

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Speaker 3: because if it's not a repeated offense, if it's repeatable,

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Speaker 3: and if they start doing it more and more, then

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Speaker 3: I'll come back and agree with you. But I think

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Speaker 3: this was a mistake that's made by a very imperfect

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Speaker 3: country that can't negotiate many simple military tasks. They had

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Speaker 3: a tremendous numerical advantage at the beginning of this. It's

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Speaker 3: completely been squandered. This has been a tremendous cost of resources.

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Speaker 3: So for the amount of volume that they're flying into Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: From my perspective, this is an aberration that took just

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Speaker 3: took place, a mistake because unless less you come back

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Speaker 3: next week and it's been repeatable, then I'll agree with you.

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Speaker 3: But it's not in their best interest to get NATO

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Speaker 3: involved in the United States more involved and to do

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Speaker 3: and from Russia's perspective, because Russia knows it would definitely lose,

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Speaker 3: then well, I've.

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Speaker 1: Got about thirty seconds with you, sir, General Kellogg for

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Speaker 1: the retired general now Special Envoy and General Cain, the

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Speaker 1: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. According to Kellogg, told the

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Speaker 1: President that Russia is losing this war in your oew

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Speaker 1: is Russia losing this war?

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Speaker 3: No, they're not losing because they're not. Their behaviors not

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Speaker 3: changed in order to stop it. They're not winning either.

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Speaker 3: I mean you've got winning and you've got not winning.

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Speaker 3: You've got losing and not losing. So I put them

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Speaker 3: in as they're not losing it and neither as Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: They're not winning it either. As well as this to

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Speaker 3: your point about World War One warfare that's taking place

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Speaker 3: there with the trenches in regard to how the situation

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Speaker 3: is revolving. But the bottom line is Russia has suffered

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Speaker 3: tremendous casualty and tremendous costs. But also they're not stopping.

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Speaker 3: They're going to continue to do this, so they're losing.

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Speaker 3: Maybe strategically you can maybe say that they've not won yet,

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Speaker 3: but to say they're losing to the point where they're

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Speaker 3: going to negotiate, they're not going to do that.

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Speaker 1: Certainly, the oil fields and the refineries has shown a lot.

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Speaker 1: Major Mike Lions, retired United States Army, appreciate you being

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Speaker 1: with us.

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Speaker 2: More coming up. I'm Tony Katz